10/28/2011

Brian is an Angry Andy - Plus Week 8 NFL/Week 9 NCAA Picks

NFL stuff on my mind....

Please please please Detroit....destroy the Broncos this week! I can't take this Tebow stuff much longer. The media spend too much time talking about a fullback playing quarterback for a team that will get about 4-5 wins this year. The Broncos were smart in having his first start be against a shitty team. Trust me, they weren't gonna have him embarrass the franchise against a team like the Packers.

If the Niners don't win the NFC West, I will murder someone. With the lack of talent in this division and any of these teams lucky to reach 6 wins, the Niners should clinch this division around Week 12 or 13. The only question we should have to worry about is whether we could get a bye. As crazy as it sounds, there's an outside shot of the Niners getting the #2 seed, assuming they can run through the NFC West as they should and some of the Saints' tough division games result in a few more losses.

This Andrew Luck talk ("Suck for Luck") is getting annoying - Phil Simms had to open his fat mouth on the subject, saying that Peyton Manning would not allow for the drafting of Luck. Sorry, but a guy who is entering the twilight of his career coming off of his second surgery is in no position to dictate future moves of the franchise. If Andrew Luck turns out to be the next Rodgers or Manning and the Colts let him go, they'd be setting their franchise back for many years to come. Actually burying the lead on this: the Colts aren't guaranteed to be the first pick!!!

We are 6-7 games into a 16 game season, with 3 teams that have failed to win a game so far. Let the season play out before we have these talks. Everyone (i.e. ESPN) is so quick to annoit the team that gets the first pick that they're not allowing the season to just take its course.

Final fantasies: I have a combined 2-19 record in my 3 money leagues, with the two wins coming in one of the leagues. That means I am pulling an 0-fer in the other two leagues. Funny enough, I'm not horribly disappointed with this, as my real life team (San Fran) is headed towards its first playoff berth since 2002. I'll gladly trade any fantasy football success for success for my team.


Fools Gold
I ran into my first loss with betting an underdog in this column, with Arizona losing to Pittsburgh by a couple scores. That moves my record to 5-2 (4-2, +$60 when betting it).

Week 8 game: Cincy (-2.5) at Seattle: Cincy enters this game well-rested after a bye week followed two wins. Meanwhile, Seattle looked like a turd against the Browns (these puns write themselves, I love it).

I may lay off of betting this game, but I think this is a sucker line. I'll be more likely to pull the trigger if Tavarus Jackson and/or Marshawn Lynch return to the lineup. The Bengals usually suck when going out west. I remember betting them in a pool when they faced the Raiders a few years back and Palmer took a fat turd. I think Dalton, although solid for a rookie, will face his toughest road test in terms of crowd noise. This should result in some false starts and other penalties that will favor the Seahawks. I see a 20-17 Seahawks win.

Other potential Week 8 bets:

KC +3.5/4 vs. San Diego- I really love this one. I don't think SD is as good as its record shows. KC ended up easily covering as 14 point dogs against the Chargers a week before going on their 3 game winning streak. I think KC will win this one straight up and join the Chargers and Raiders atop the AFC West division.

New England -2.5 at Pitt - Brady and Belichick seem to have the Steelers' number, and I think that continues. The Steelers have won 3 straight against 3 teams that they should beat. With the Ravens next on their schedule, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a slight look-ahead to that game, although I don't think Tomlin will let them do that. Either way, the Pats should cover.


NCAA Bets I'm looking at

Nebraska -4 against MSU - MSU coming off of two emotional wins (against rival Michigan and an upset win against Wisconsin), a natural letdown spot if there ever was one.

Minnesota +16 against Iowa - Tim and I have made a tradition of fading Iowa on Halloweekend for some reason, so this year's flush of money is the Gophers.

Indiana/NU Over 61.5 - NU has allowed over 30 points in all 4 of its Big Ten matchups. After watching Indiana's game last week against Iowa, I saw their freshman QB move the ball well in the first and last quarters of the game. IU has no defense either, so I expect the teams to have some fun running the ball up and down the field.



Week 7 Week 8
   
NFL 1-3 -$97.50 NCAA 1-0, $50
Totals 0-0 Totals 0-0
MLs 1-0, $122.50 MLs 0-0
Spreads 0-3, -$220 Spreads 1-0, $50
YTD: 26-22-3, +$334.10 YTD: 10-15, -$374
Totals: 9-6-1, +$299.60 Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 3-1, $208.50 MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 14-15-2, -$154 Spreads: 10-9, $61


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