The Ultimate QB (QuarterBolek) Rating System: The Four Tiers of NFL QBs

From the moment that NFL coverage starts getting rampant on both the NFL Network and ESPN, you won't be able to watch a show that doesn't have a topic point relating to who should be considered the top quarterbacks (or the buzz word as of late, "elite") of the NFL.

Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.

But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.

So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:

• Those who have already won a Super Bowl
• Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win
• Those who have slightly less talent, but could win it with the right cast of characters
• Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title

If we break it down like this, here's how it would look, using the active list of quarterbacks. Note that in cases where the QB may not be known, I am either taking an educated guess as to who the starter will be or counting the QBs in the battle as one QB:

(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs

• Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco
  
  Notes: Well, this list is complete fact. No opinions on whether these guys won a Super Bowl title. For now, I think these are the first of QBs that should be used when discussing who the best is, and even some of these guys shouldn't be considered (Big Ben, Flacco - not yet anyways). Anyone else mentioned is a victim of the recency effect (i.e. one of the guys below might start out the season with a hot hand).
  
  It should be noted that Peyton's only Super Bowl win was against Rex Grossman. I could only imagine the labels that would be attached to Peyton had he never won a title and thrown that pick-6 to seal the Saints' title years back. The more I look at Peyton's career, the more I see Favre - a guy with a lengthy Hall-of-Fame career who wins a title and could/should have won more but for various reasons, didn't.

(2) Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win (no particular order) - 6 QBs

• Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck
  
  Notes: You'll notice that for the most part, these are guys who have only been in the league for a few years (with Matt Ryan being the exception). You may dispute Cam Newton being on this list, but I believe he has the talents to win a Super Bowl - he just hasn't had a chance with the Panthers defense on the other side of the ball. I am calling a playoff berth for the Cam Panthers this year.
  
  The draft class of 2012 showed itself to be the real deal. I believe all three (Luck, RG3, Wilson) will have a chance to compete in conference title game for the next decade. Who is the best of them - I have no clue yet. Who cares - let's just enjoy them without having to rank them.

(3) Those who have less talent but could win it with the right cast of characters (no particular order) - 8 QBs

•  Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill
  
  Notes: The guys above have had wildly different paths in the NFL, a few of them young but most in the league for 6+ years, none of which has led to a Super Bowl appearance. This is the most intriguing group of QBs to me, because I do believe with the right situation, these guys can win a title. It's just that unlike the guys above, I don't think they can do it solely on the talents that they have shown.
  
  Romo - as much as I want to back him, especially with all the crap people give him, he's failed to take the next step as QB. Every year, it seems like you can pencil Dallas in for a chance to win the NFC East, only to fall flat - and no, it's not all Romo's fault as many make it out to be. But it is some of his fault.
  
  Cutler - I'm interested to see his talents used by Trestman, who has been known to be an offensive guru. For right now, he hasn't shown himself to be a guy who I think will win a title.
  
  Stafford - he seems to be more of a stat stuffer than a QB who can win a title. Problem is, he's getting paid like a Super Bowl-type QB but definitely not worth the money at this point.
  
  Bradford - this seems like it's going to be a make-or-break year for Bradford, who I could easily vault into the next category of QBs if he shows some of the talents he did while he was at Oklahoma. If he can somehow propel the Rams into the playoffs, I may consider elevating him.
  
  Schaub - he's nearing his chance of winning a title in my opinion. I'm thinking a Wade Phillips defense will need to be the catalyst, with Schaub playing a secondary role in winning a title. I don't see Schaub improving so much that I can confidently say he will not win a title by carrying the load.
  
  Smith - He had a breakout year in 2011 with the Niners and was just as effective to start 2012, but I believe Smith needs a system that suits his talents in order to succeed. KC will likely never win a Super Bowl with Smith carrying the team - they'd need a talented base around him to do it (a la Schaub).
  
  Dalton - He's about as intriguing to me as Bradford, maybe a little more so. What Dalton and A.J. Green have going is special, and I am a believer in the Bengals defense. This is my surprise team this year (I have them making it to the Super Bowl), so I will be keeping an eye on Dalton the whole year to see if he can have the big games (a la Rodgers & Brees) that will carry the Bengals to victory on days where the defense might be a little down.
  
  Tannehill - The jury is still out on him (as you could probably say on most of the 2012 draft class). I believe if he sticks with Miami long enough, he will have a shot to win some AFC East titles once Brady retires. He showed a lot more talent than many thought he would. I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it to a AFC title game, but down the road, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

 (4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs

• Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith, Matt Flynn, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Philip Rivers, E.J. Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
  
  Notes: Many of these guys have had their chances with their time in the league (notably Sanchez & Rivers, who have made 3 AFC title games between them - I don't see either one of them even coming close to these career achievements again, yet alone a Super Bowl as a starter). Vick, who made an NFC title game a long time ago (remember? seems so long ago) has seen his better days and is likely nearing his end as a starting QB in the next year or two. He's never shown himself to be reliable enough to win a title. Palmer has been like Stafford - a stat stuffer.
  
  Some of these first/second-year QBs, the jury is still out, although I'm just going off a hunch at this point that guys like Weeden & Manuel will never lead a team to a Super Bowl. I don't see Ponder ever leading the Vikings to the promised land (Adrian Peterson was the MVP for a reason). The others, I don't care to mention.

So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.

The History of the Super Bowl MVP: Facts & Thoughts for This Year

A couple days away from Super Bowl XLVII (47 for us non-Romans). Anyone who knows me knows that I am super-psyched about this game being a 49ers fan.

And like almost every Super Bowl in the past 6-7 years, I'm a gambling man. There's so many freaking things you can bet on (more on this in a blog coming up later this week before the game). One of the things you can bet on is who will win the Super Bowl MVP.

This award favors the quarterback, as 25 of 47 winners (there was one Super Bowl w/ a co-MVP) lined up behind center to win the award. The past three Super Bowl winners had a QB win the award.

So naturally, the two favorites to win the award are both QBs (Colin Kaepernick is +140 and Joe Flacco is +250). This means for every 10 dollars you bet on Kaepernick, you'd profit $14, with a similar sized wager on Flacco netting you 25 bucks.

These are the safest bets to make, but who wants to be safe, especially when it comes to gambling? I delved into the history of the Super Bowl MVP and what the average QB who won the award did to win it. I also wanted to see what it took for a non-QB to win the award. The defensive winners (8 in total) were hard to find definitive stats for, so I wanted to focus more on the running backs and wide receivers who stole the honors from the quarterbacks.

So here goes nothing:

For the QB MVP winners:

• The average stats for the 25 winning MVP QBs: 20-for-30, 269 yards, 2.3 TDs, 0.5 int.
• Out of the first 9 QBs to win the MVP, none of them completed more than 17 passes or threw more than 30 times. In this time period, the average QB went 14-for-23, 218 yards, 1.7 TD, 0.6 int
• Since then (since the 1985 Super Bowl - XIX), the 16 QBs have averaged 23-for-35, 298 yards, 2.7 TDs, 0.4 int
• Yardage totals for MVP winners range from Roger Staubach's 119 in Super Bowl VI to Kurt Warner's 414 in Super Bowl XXXIV. The lowest total since Staubach's was Tom Brady's first go-around as MVP, only netting 145 passing yards in the Patriots' upset of the St. Louis Rams.

For the QB non-MVP winners:

• The average stats for the 22 non-winning MVP QBs: 14-for-24, 184 yards, 1 TD, 0.6 int.
• From Super Bowl I-XIX in which the QB didn't win MVP, the average stats for these QBs: 12-for-19, 141 yards, 1.1 TDs, 0.7 int
• Since Super Bowl XX, the non-winning QBs averaged 17-28, 216 yards, 1 TD, 0.5 int
• In the back-to-back Super Bowls that Miami won in the 1970s, Bob Greise went 14-for-18 with 161 yards and a TD and an interception...in both games combined! Could you imagine a QB throwing this little nowadays and winning a Super Bowl in just one game, yet alone two? 

So what does it take for a non-QB to win the MVP? We'll focus on the offensive players:

Running Backs (7 winners)

• The seven running back winners have averaged 29 carries, 150 yards and 2 TDs. This stat means that basically the workhorse running back is the only type who can win the award.
• The lowest number of carries for a MVP RB is 20 carries (Marcus Allen), with John Riggins' 38 carries leading the way for MVP running backs.
• There has not been a running back MVP since 1998, when Terrell Davis totaled 157 yards in Super Bowl XXXII.

Wide Receivers (6 winners)

• The average MVP wide-out has averaged about 7 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown to snag the award. Overall, the six winners were responsible for 799 of their QB's 1361 yards (59%) and 3 of their 8 TDs (Note: Hines Ward did not catch his 43-yard TD from Big Ben - see below)
• It should be noted that three of these six winners have come in the last 8 years (Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes)
• These three recent winners averaged 113 yards/game (not counting Ward's catch from the WR), while their QBs averaged 205 yards.
• In Super Bowl XL, Hines Ward had as many yards receiving as Roethlisberger had passing (123 yards). This occurred thanks to a trick play from the arm of Antwaan Randle-El to Ward for a 43 yard touchdown - this means Roethlisberger only netted 43 yards total from receivers not named Hines Ward.

Defensive Players (8 winners)

• As mentioned above, records aren't that great when it comes to what defensive players did to earn their MVPs.
• For the three secondary players to win the award, all three had exactly two interceptions each. The latest of which was 10 years ago when Dexter Jackson snatched two Rich Gannon passes.
• There have also been three linemen/tackles to win it. Two of these guys shared the award (Harvey Martin & Randy White in Super Bowl XII for the winning Dallas Cowboys). The other was Richard Dent, who had two sacks and two forced fumbles in the Bears' rout of the Patriots in Super Bowl XX.
• Only two linebackers have won the award: Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V & the one-and-only Ray Lewis in Super Bowl XXXV.

Other (1 winner)

• There was also the lone special teams guy to win the award. Desmond Howard earned the award in Super Bowl XXXI with some great returns (244 all-purpose yards, including a 99-yard kickoff return).

This begs the question...

What players have value if betting the Super Bowl MVP? Based on the recent data, the wide receiver position has the best value for MVP. Running backs need an amazing game, including a lot of carries, to take away the MVP from QBs. Gore has a better shot to get 20+ carries than Rice, but I'm eliminating both since no RB has won this in 15 years.

For this bet, you would want to target a guy who has a chance to get around 60% of his QB's total yards.

This leaves three realistic long-shots to win the Super Bowl MVP:

Torrey Smith 17/1

Michael Crabtree 18/1

Anquan Boldin 20/1

If you think the Ravens will win, I would personally look to take Smith. He has the best big-play potential (17 yards/catch & 8 TDs vs. Boldin's 14 yards/catch & 4 TDs this year).

However, with me taking the Niners in this game, I am going to make Michael Crabtree my Super Bowl MVP bet.

In Kaepernick's 9 starts including the playoffs, 37% of his yards (771 of 2104) and 7 of his 13 TD passes have gone to Crabtree. This includes five games where Crabtree accumulated 45% or more of Kaepernick's yards.

Defending the Award

If you think this will be a defensive battle, you may want to considering looking for long-shot defensive players to win the award. Ray Lewis is priced out of this (only 8/1 odds, terrible for a position that's only won the award twice in 46 Super Bowls). I'd suggest looking at the following players if you sense a struggle:

1. Ed Reed 35/1 (If he picks a couple passes, this is possible. With his ball-hawking skills, he could also return one for a TD)
2. Patrick Willis 45/1 (His odds were at 90/1 earlier this week). If this is a low-scoring game, Willis will likely have his fingerprints on the game.
3. Aldon Smith 70/1 (He hasn't had a sack since Week 14. All of his 19.5 sacks came in the 13 games before then, including 5 games with multiple sacks. If the score stays low and he can get a couple sacks, including a turnover, Smith could win it)
4. Terrell Suggs 75/1 (He hasn't been the dominant player he was last year when he took the defensive player of the year honors, but Suggs is still worth a look. His best game this season came against Denver in the Divisional Round, notching 10 tackles/2 sacks, so perhaps he has a little juice in the tank for a great game against the Niners.

Judging Today's Crop of QBs (not named Tom or Peyton) & chances for HOF

I decided to break down the current worthy QBs in terms of their chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm currently working on another piece which shows that there is a correlation between making/winning Super Bowls & making the Hall of Fame as a QB.

I decided to analyze a few QBs that are at or near the elite level and have played for the better part of the past decade that may have some level of debate on whether they are in the Hall of Fame. Brady and Peyton excluded for obvious Canton busts already being built for them.

Sorry, no Alex Smith or Rex Grossman. I hope you can make it through.

Eli Manning

The current matchup, a rematch of 4 years ago, features one QB who will definitely be a Hall of Famer in Tom Brady versus a likely one in Eli Manning. Some ask - does Eli have to win this to make the Hall of Fame?

Short answer: no. Longer answer - if he continues to lead his team to playoff successes every so often(and I'd argue they've succeeded this season regardless of outcome on Sunday), I have no doubt he will be a Hall of Famer.

Everyone seems to want to compare Eli to his brother as if to minimize what the younger brother has accomplished so far. Critics say that Eli benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime catch by David Tyree & a stellar defense. To those critics, I raise you an overachieving Bears team headed by Rex Grossman as the one and only team that Peyton has beaten to win a ring.

I know Eli is not as good as Peyton at this point, but who the hell is?

Current HOF verdict: IN

Drew Brees

Brees has been a crucial part in not only building the Saints into a perennial contender, but also providing the city of New Orleans a much needed shot in the arm for morale purposes. He has led the Saints to 2 NFC Championship Games, winning a Super Bowl a few years ago. He fits the mold of what is expected from a Hall of Fame QB.

Current HOF verdict: IN

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is well on his way to making his way to Canton. In what will likely be recognized as an MVP season despite the playoff failure, he will be adding to the accolades that include Super Bowl MVP for his performance last year in beating the Steelers. As long as he continues this career arc and doesn't get hurt for an extended period of time, I like his chances of not only making the Hall of Fame, but also winning another ring or two before his career is done.

Current HOF verdict: pending (likely in)

Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben has made quite a name for himself on and off the field since he joined the Steelers in 2004 for good and bad reasons. I don't think the incidents he has had will hurt his chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what to make of his chances though. Does he have the credentials of a Hall of Fame QB? Does he seem like a Hall of Fame QB? I'd say yes (3 SB appearances, 2 wins) and....I'm not sure. If he does make it, I don't think he'll make it first ballot.

Current HOF verdict: Leaning IN

Tony Romo

There's no questioning the numbers that Romo has put up in his career have been stellar. You could win a lot of bets from people if you wagered that Romo has a better career passer rating than every QB in NFL history but Aaron Rodgers among qualifying QBs (according to Pro Football Reference). However, there is a huuuuuuuuge void in his resume, one that will forever haunt his public image (ie - ESPN junkies) and probably voters as well. The 1000 lb gorilla in the room of no playoff success, particularly not making at least one Super Bowl to this point, will likely keep him out of Canton if it doesn't change. I know my Cowboys friends can tell you that it hasn't always been his fault with the Cowboy collapses, but until Dallas has moderate playoff success, these ghosts will haunt his chances (fair or not).

Current HOF verdict: OUT

Philip Rivers

See above critique of Romo. OUT.

Peyton's Place: Where the Hall-of-Fame Bound QB Could (and Won't) Go

Note: This blog is written under the assumption that Peyton will play another down in the NFL. There remains much speculation on whether he will be healthy enough to suit up again.

With about five weeks before the Colts have to pay Peyton Manning a roster bonus, this would be a good time to speculate on what teams may be in the running for him and which ones have no shot of signing the future Hall of Fame QB.

I figure Peyton would only go to a contending team to give him the best chance of getting at least one more ring before he retires, so I'll first break down the teams that he has no shot of going to - based on teams lacking talent or no need for a QB.

The numbers are not a ranking of chance/no chance of getting Peyton, rather just a counting device to make the total of teams easy to see.

Definitely Not Peyton's Places

1. Cleveland
2. Washington
3. Buffalo
4. Tampa Bay
5. Miami
6. Jacksonville
7. Seattle
8. Minnesota
9. Oakland
10. Kansas City

Thoughts: Assuming some of these organizations are willing to part ways with their current QBs for Peyton, I don't see him going to any of these teams. Out of these teams, I'd say Miami may be the most intriguing. Buffalo & Kansas City may fall into the category below more, but even then, Peyton wouldn't go here.

Oakland could be close to making the playoffs, especially in a bad division, but seems like their hands are tied to Carson Palmer for 2012.

Ponder may fall into the title of Franchise QB being a first round pick and all, but Minnesota would push him aside if there was even the slightest chance of getting Peyton (which there isn't).


Teams w/ Franchise QBs

1. Green Bay
2. Detroit
3. Philadelphia
4. Dallas
5. NY Giants
6. St. Louis
7. New England
8. Pittsburgh
9. San Diego
10. Carolina
11. New Orleans
12. Atlanta
13. Cincinnati
14. Houston
15. Chicago

Thoughts: None of these teams would consider Peyton given their current QB's stability. You could argue that Bradford isn't a franchise QB, but he's paid like one. Injuries prevented him from having a chance to build on his stellar rookie campaign. The new coaching staff could add Justin Blackmon to complement Brandon Lloyd, who is a free agent but appears interested in resigning with the Rams.

Bears aside: I suppose Cutler falls into the franchise QB conversation. It's probably the organization he is in that makes me think his ceiling isn't as high as it could be. The Bears don't exactly have the best track record of developing quarterbacks. Now that Lovie says he wants the team to go to a run-first approach despite everything in the NFL favoring elite QBs, not to mention the Bears' lack of talented WRs, Cutler will likely be even more limited. Even if you don't consider Cutler a franchise QB, Manning may not want to go to Chicago with this coaching staff's mentality in place.

Contender Unlikely to Consider Peyton

1. Baltimore

Thoughts: Flacco's performance in the AFC Championship (and winning at least a game in the playoffs in each of his first four seasons) may be enough for Baltimore to keep him. His numbers, however, tell me that he is not elite and that the team was often winning in spite of him, not because.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That leaves 6 teams that Manning may line up under center in 2012. Once again, in no particular order...

Contenders (or Potential Contenders) Who May Not Be Sold On Current QB

1. San Francisco
2. New York Jets
3. Tennessee
4. Denver

Thoughts: There's not too many teams who are Super Bowl contenders that don't already have a franchise QB in place. That tells you something on how hard it is to win in this league without one.

San Fran would seem ideal, especially seeing how close they were to the Super Bowl this year. I see the Niners more than likely resigning Alex Smith to a 1- or 2-year deal. I put their chances of signing him at minimal.

The Jets desperately need a leader who will get the veteran's attention in the locker room (I'm figuratively looking at you, Santonio Holmes) and get the most out of this squad. I don't think the team (and especially the fan base) is buying Mark Sanchez long-term. Manning wouldn't allow this crap to continue and would bring a competitive edge that was missing from the 2011 squad. There may be other issues that the Jets want to take care of first, but they wouldn't mind winning the NY tabloid battle by signing the aging slinger.

Not sure the Colts would release Peyton if they knew he'd want to go to Tennessee. Imagine the Colts facing him twice a year, a la Favre vs. Green Bay those two years. University of Tennessee is where he went to college - no clue if that appeals to him or not, but something to keep in mind. They drafted Jake Locker in the first round last year, but I'm not convinced they'd avoid Peyton if he showed interest in joining the Titans, who finished just outside of the playoffs this year. Kenny Britt would become a Pro-Bowler if Manning comes into town. The play action possibilities with Chris Johnson in the backfield would be awesome to see.

Denver seems to be the most intriguing. While it would be hard for Elway to remove Jesus Christ from the starting lineup based on his cultish popularity, I do believe that the Broncos have a few talented guys that Peyton could work with and make better. Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker would be giving Peyton better WRs to work with than New England (remember, Gronk & Hernandez are TEs). Argue Welker all you want, but Brady has made Welker's career - as a Dolphin, Welker was a middle-of-the-road option in a failing offense - now, a Pro Bowler.

I don't buy into Tebowites saying Tebow had no one to throw to. When your completion percentage is less than 50% in a 60% league, the world's best receivers wouldn't be able to bail you out. Manning has made stars out of less-talented players before (see: Jacob Tamme, Brandon Stokley).

Down the stretch, the Broncos' defense played well and was the main reason for the team winning 7 of 11 games with Tebow behind center. The real question to answer: Would Denver's fanbase accept Peyton as the team's QB at the expense of Tebow? Fans shouldn't decide who the starting QB is, but his overwhelming popularity may be hard for the team to bench him - Hall of Fame QB be damned. If there is one team president that could get away with making this move though, it is John Elway.

Wild Cards for Peyton

1. Arizona
2. Indianapolis

Thoughts: Arizona has so much money committed to Kevin Kolb, but his stint at QB was hardly memorable. Hell, John Skelton played better than him at times in 2011. I put them in my Wild Card category because I do think they showed some talent down the stretch, and I can't help but think of what Kurt Warner did when he came in and revived a dead franchise that was floundering with Matt Leinart behind center. Imagine two of the most driven & studious players together on one team - Peyton to Fitzgerald could be magic.

Weird to consider Indianapolis as a sleeper seeing as though he's still under contract with them. Maybe I'm already buying into him being gone with all the change that has taken place in Indy and how they are in a rebuilding phase and consider it a long-shot that he'd stick around. I don't see Manning wanting to stay around - even as a starter - when Andrew Luck is drafted. The speculation of when Luck would be starting if the Colts start the 2012 poorly is probably something Manning wouldn't care to deal with at this stage of his career. Besides, I think the Colts are far from contending for a Super Bowl in the near future (the main reason he'd leave).


If I had to guess....

I see the Jets as the likely candidate to snag up Peyton. Rex Ryan could make Super Bowl predictions with more gusto if they get him under center. The Jets still need to make other moves to solidify their offense (and still have a void at the offensive coordinator position).

Mark Sanchez might be better served to start fresh somewhere else. The scrutiny that he has faced from media, fans and teammates despite all of his fourth quarter comebacks tells me that a QB switch is looming.

Either way, I don't think we'll have to wait till the draft or later to find out if Peyton will remain a Colt. Smart money says he will either retire or go to another team.

Salute Your Schwartz: Weekly Blobs and Blurbs

Salute Your Schwartz, Harbaugh.

It's a shame that the Niners/Lions physical battle (with the Niners coming on top 25-19) is lost in the shadows thanks to a 15-20 second episode between the coaches where Harbaugh and Schwartz (mainly the latter) had to be separated from fighting each other. This game featured two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, and all that's being talked about after the great matchup is a bunch of fluff. Just another episode of the media and public caring too much about something that has absolutely no significance to the outcome of the game nor the outcome of future games.

Speaking of the Niners, they are looking 100 times better than I ever thought they would this year. People asked me back in January on my thoughts of the hire of Jim Harbaugh. I saw his success at Stanford and his destination before and knew he transformed teams who aren't known for their football successes into winners, but I figured it would take at least a year or two to transform the Niners. It goes to show you what a coach brings to the table. I think NFL, more than any other pro sport, is dependent on having a good coach to win. I don't think MLB managers affect all that much compared to them. I can't speak for NHL, but I think MJ could have won 50-55 games a year without a coach. Phil added about 10-15 wins a year. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think the NFL coach is the most important coach in pro sports.

MLB prediction was half right - I had the Rangers/Brewers in my 4th installment of the World Series predictions. Naturally, it didn't come in. One trend that I found interesting, and one I look forward to seeing if it will continue, is the strength of offenses over pitching in the LCSes. In gambling terms, overs (meaning the total score of both teams) went 8-3-1 combined - meaning runs were a plenty. Granted, 2 of the Texas games didn't hit the over until 11th inning home runs by Nelson Cruz, but nevertheless. I'm not gonna make a prediction on the series, but I think the scoring will continue with these lineups.


This is the time of the year for some quarterback shuffling - Some are by performance (John Beck for Grossman, Tebow for Orton, Ponder for McNabb), while others are a product of injury (Carson Palmer, Matt Moore, Charlie Whitehurst, potentially AJ Feeley getting starts). Either way, I don't expect the trend to stop. As more teams fall out of the race, teams will see what some of these back-up QBs have to offer. Then again, I just named 7 quarterbacks, with at least 5 of these guys not playing for anything other than pride and the future. So maybe it is done. Either way, I just covered my ass on both ends.


NBA on the verge of cancelling more games and I'm still not caring. Like I said last week, I think I won't start caring until February when there's no more sports to get into until baseball, and even that interest lies in Opening Day and then dies slowly into the summer months. As a bettor, I'll miss having a chance to bet some fat money lines, but it will probably be for the better.

Footballs Deep: NFL trends and Week 2 thoughts

The Death of the Running Back


Welcome to Thursday night. We are officially a week removed from the exciting start to the NFL season, where we saw the duel between Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Who knew that the slinging would continue into the Monday night games, particularly in a matchup featuring Tom Brady and Chad Henne, who somehow combined for more yards than Rodgers and Brees? Many games on Sunday also featured some high passing yardage totals, with Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick being among the unexpected leaders in the clubhouse.

The trend of high passing yardage is nothing new, but the number of guys in Week 1 who performed well, especially by the unknowns, makes me believe that having a top quality running back isn't all that important anymore. Sure, it helps with play actions and keeping some defenses honest.

But look at how many teams line up in shotgun formation on a regular basis, especially with the top quarterbacks. Even when teams know that these guys are going to pass, defenses can do nothing to stop it. I think the death of the running back is its prime right now.

Yes, yes - there's still elite running backs in the league. But how many of them are on teams that are considered the favorites to win the Super Bowl?


Fool's Gold Bet of the Week

Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee: From what I saw of the game, which was very limited amount, the Titans seemed to struggle to move the ball much against the Jaguars - a team not considered to epitomize great defense. You'd think that playing a team like the Ravens, a team that just schooled its rival Pittsburgh 35-7, would warrant a higher line that 5.5 point home dogs as a result. With this line, Vegas is telling me that they expect the Ravens to have somewhat of a letdown (especially off of the rivalry angle), while also saying that the Titans might not be as bad as they looked in Week 1. I think Chris Johnson is able to get on track this week. The Titans almost won the opener despite CJ's struggles to get going, so if he's able to get one or two big runs like he's accustomed to, that will be the difference in keeping this game close. (Likely betting Tennessee +5.5)

Fool's Gold YTD: 1-0 (record based on betting against the trend - Last week's pick (Washington) easily covered). This is a record of betting against the spread, not straight-up.


Fantasy Football Blurb

I wrote a blog about how nobody really cares about your fantasy football team if they're not asking about it, so since you're not asking, I won't tell you. I will mention that I did lose all of my big money league games, but I refuse to panic and think my season is over. It obviously makes winning week 2 more important than normal, but the season is a grind and needs to be treated as such.

Lots of times, teams who lose week 1 start to panic and make irrational moves based on one week's worth of data. If you know owners like that in your leagues, my suggestion is to exploit these owners. Try getting Blount or CJ from some panicked owner and then reap the rewards later. Just don't do it in any of my leagues.


Week 2 Leans/Bets

Week 1 started off on a terrible foot, with the Under being destroyed in the opening game of the year. In fact, Overs went 12-3-1 in NFL's first week. Much of that is credited to the trend I mentioned at the top of the blog - Quarterbacks Gone Wild.

Two unlisted bets from Monday - I lost $60 total on Monday (1-1), $55 Sunday (2-3-1) and $66 (0-1) on Thursday - so a rough start to the NFL (3-5-1, -$181). Luckily, I won all 3 of my college bets on Saturday (+$120) to negate much of that damage.

Week 2 is a lot murkier for me at this point, but here's some games I'm looking to bet:

Ten +5.5 vs Baltimore
KC +7.5 at Detroit
Pitt -14 vs. Seattle or the Under 40
Dallas -3 at San Fran
Atlanta +1.5 vs Phil

I will post final bets on Sunday.

Survivor pool pick. I used San Diego last week. Week 2 pick: Pittsburgh.

Good luck in your bets, fantasy leagues, and most importantly, to the actual team that you root for.

QB or not QB: The Cynical Views of a 49ers Fan

Not much since the Jeff Garcia era has gone right for the San Francisco 49ers - from the numerous coaching changes to the botched QB decisions. No matter how you dice it, as a #1 pick, Alex Smith has failed to become the franchise guy that any team who drafts a QB with the top selection should expect. Yet....for some reason, the Niners/Harbaugh want to bring the model of inconsistency back into the fold for next year. I guess it makes some sense, given the lack of practice time that any new QB, including Colin Kaepernick, would have due to the lockout.

On the bright side (and the only bright side) I can find about bringing Smith back is that he finally may have a competent offensive mind to work with. Harbaugh had a big hand in developing Andrew Luck into the future 2012 #1 pick (barring injury) and also putting Stanford football on the map in a very short amount of time, capping off his last season with the Cardinal in a very impressive romping of V-Tech.

With the drafting of a new QB, you'd think I'd be happier, given the impending end of the Alex Smith era and the hope of success with the young guy. However, Kaepernick enters the NFL on similar terms as Smith did: both men played on offenses in college that make for a difficult transition into the pro game. Smith played under the tutelage of Urban Meyer while Meyer was still an up-and-coming coach for Utah. Meyer emphasized the "spread offense", which usually uses 4-5 receiver sets to space out defenders and give the offense more room to run and pass. In college systems like this, the QB used is often quick and usually has an option to run or pass. Here are Smith's statistics in his junior year, after which he declared for the NFL draft:

• 32 TDs, 4 Ints in 317 attempts for 2952 yards, completing over two-thirds of his passes in the process
• 135 attempts for 631 yards (deceiving because in college, they count sacks as negative rushing yards), 10 TDs rushing

Comparably, Kaepernick just finished his college stint at Nevada playing in the Pistol formation, which is almost a merger of the shotgun and the I formation, except it's just 1 running back behind the QB as he stands in shotgun. Like Smith, Kaepernick's system emphasized the option as a big part of its offense, resulting in some well-rounded Smith-like stats for CK's senior year campaign:

• 22 TDs, 8 picks in 359 passes for 3022 yards, completing about 65% of his passes
• 173 attempts for 1206 yards (7 yards/carry) for 20 TDs

In each man's last seasons, both contributed exactly 42 TDs (roughly 3.5 per game), with Smith having the edge in passing efficiency and Kaepernick literally running away with the rushing title between the two. Both men had similar yardage and completion totals. Both men also took great advantage of the systems that allowed them to put up the stats that they did.

However, it remains to be seen whether Kaepernick will fall prey to the system QB problem that Smith had. Lining up under center is a lot different than in an option-based shotgun formation, which could never work in the NFL due to the speed of the game. I do think that both quarterbacks will benefit from having a former QB coaching them.

If neither can succeed with this guy as coach, then forget about it. Personally, the inevitable signing of Alex Smith is puzzling, but since it is inevitable, I'd like to see both the new coach and the motivation of a draft pick to light a fire under his ass to give Smith a decent chance at improvement.

Time will tell, and hopefully time will allow this to play out as scheduled. I wish whatever QB plays this year the best, and hopefully the best results in our first division championship since Mooch was coach.