Brian is an Angry Andy - Plus Week 8 NFL/Week 9 NCAA Picks

NFL stuff on my mind....

Please please please Detroit....destroy the Broncos this week! I can't take this Tebow stuff much longer. The media spend too much time talking about a fullback playing quarterback for a team that will get about 4-5 wins this year. The Broncos were smart in having his first start be against a shitty team. Trust me, they weren't gonna have him embarrass the franchise against a team like the Packers.

If the Niners don't win the NFC West, I will murder someone. With the lack of talent in this division and any of these teams lucky to reach 6 wins, the Niners should clinch this division around Week 12 or 13. The only question we should have to worry about is whether we could get a bye. As crazy as it sounds, there's an outside shot of the Niners getting the #2 seed, assuming they can run through the NFC West as they should and some of the Saints' tough division games result in a few more losses.

This Andrew Luck talk ("Suck for Luck") is getting annoying - Phil Simms had to open his fat mouth on the subject, saying that Peyton Manning would not allow for the drafting of Luck. Sorry, but a guy who is entering the twilight of his career coming off of his second surgery is in no position to dictate future moves of the franchise. If Andrew Luck turns out to be the next Rodgers or Manning and the Colts let him go, they'd be setting their franchise back for many years to come. Actually burying the lead on this: the Colts aren't guaranteed to be the first pick!!!

We are 6-7 games into a 16 game season, with 3 teams that have failed to win a game so far. Let the season play out before we have these talks. Everyone (i.e. ESPN) is so quick to annoit the team that gets the first pick that they're not allowing the season to just take its course.

Final fantasies: I have a combined 2-19 record in my 3 money leagues, with the two wins coming in one of the leagues. That means I am pulling an 0-fer in the other two leagues. Funny enough, I'm not horribly disappointed with this, as my real life team (San Fran) is headed towards its first playoff berth since 2002. I'll gladly trade any fantasy football success for success for my team.


Fools Gold
I ran into my first loss with betting an underdog in this column, with Arizona losing to Pittsburgh by a couple scores. That moves my record to 5-2 (4-2, +$60 when betting it).

Week 8 game: Cincy (-2.5) at Seattle: Cincy enters this game well-rested after a bye week followed two wins. Meanwhile, Seattle looked like a turd against the Browns (these puns write themselves, I love it).

I may lay off of betting this game, but I think this is a sucker line. I'll be more likely to pull the trigger if Tavarus Jackson and/or Marshawn Lynch return to the lineup. The Bengals usually suck when going out west. I remember betting them in a pool when they faced the Raiders a few years back and Palmer took a fat turd. I think Dalton, although solid for a rookie, will face his toughest road test in terms of crowd noise. This should result in some false starts and other penalties that will favor the Seahawks. I see a 20-17 Seahawks win.

Other potential Week 8 bets:

KC +3.5/4 vs. San Diego- I really love this one. I don't think SD is as good as its record shows. KC ended up easily covering as 14 point dogs against the Chargers a week before going on their 3 game winning streak. I think KC will win this one straight up and join the Chargers and Raiders atop the AFC West division.

New England -2.5 at Pitt - Brady and Belichick seem to have the Steelers' number, and I think that continues. The Steelers have won 3 straight against 3 teams that they should beat. With the Ravens next on their schedule, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a slight look-ahead to that game, although I don't think Tomlin will let them do that. Either way, the Pats should cover.


NCAA Bets I'm looking at

Nebraska -4 against MSU - MSU coming off of two emotional wins (against rival Michigan and an upset win against Wisconsin), a natural letdown spot if there ever was one.

Minnesota +16 against Iowa - Tim and I have made a tradition of fading Iowa on Halloweekend for some reason, so this year's flush of money is the Gophers.

Indiana/NU Over 61.5 - NU has allowed over 30 points in all 4 of its Big Ten matchups. After watching Indiana's game last week against Iowa, I saw their freshman QB move the ball well in the first and last quarters of the game. IU has no defense either, so I expect the teams to have some fun running the ball up and down the field.

Week 7	Week 8
NFL 1-3 -$97.50	NCAA 1-0, $50
Totals 0-0	Totals 0-0
MLs 1-0, $122.50	MLs 0-0
Spreads 0-3, -$220	Spreads 1-0, $50
YTD: 26-22-3, +$334.10	YTD: 10-15, -$374
Totals: 9-6-1, +$299.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 3-1, $208.50	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 14-15-2, -$154	Spreads: 10-9, $61

Reviving America's Pastime: The Amazing 2011 World Series

You like low scoring games? There's been 4 of those.

You like video games scores? There's been a couple of those, including the most exciting end to a playoff game (given what was on the line - elimination of the Cards) since Game 7 of the 2001 World Series.

You like superstars getting their big numbers? Does Pujols hitting three bombs in Game 3 satisfy your appettite? (probably not if you're a Rangers or Cubs fan)

You like unknowns (at least to the mainstream) making splashes? Mike Napoli and David Freese have played that role perfectly.

9th inning lead changes? Two of those as well, one by each team.

How about serieses that go to the max? First one since the 2002 Series won by the Angels.

Close games? There's been 5 games of 6 decided by 1 or 2 runs.

This series has everything a common baseball fan should want. So it makes sense that the ratings are higher for this series than most recently that didn't involve the Red Sox or Yankees.

Despite the sloppy start to Game 6, it still has to be considered among the top games of my lifetime in terms of excitement and intensity of the moment. So many firsts were set from that last game: first time there's been 10 innings of one team scoring at least a run, first time a team came back from defecits in the 9th and 10th inning, first time a guy tied a game in the 9th and then won it in extra innings, among others.

I doubt we will see the eyes glued to baseball the way we're seeing them now for a while. Baseball has lost its appeal to the common fan as NFL has overtaken it as the most popular sport in America. I've heard some people say baseball could go the way of boxing, but I don't think it'll dive off into that type of obscurity.

The problem with baseball's showcase series is that it hasn't really been competitive in the past decade. Unlike the Super Bowl, which has seen 7 of its last 12 winners triumph by a touchdown or less, the World Series has only seen 5 of its last 12 series go 6 or more games, with this being the 3rd sudden death game in that span. This means that seven series either ended in sweeps or another team only able to capture one game. That's not a good way to promote your sport.

Hopefully we will see more competitive series in the future. I'm writing this as the seventh game is going on, but I can already say that it's the most exciting series I've ever watched as a baseball fan (obviously the White Sox was my favorite ever as a homer). Here's my favorites in order:

(1) 2011 Rangers/Cards - (all but one game has been competitive)
(2) 1991 Twins/Braves - (one of the first series I remember watching as a kid. I was hopelessly rooting for the Braves in this series)
(3) 2001 Yanks/Dbacks (hard to not like this series, especially for anyone who hates the Yanks)

Enjoy Game 7 if you read this right away. If you read this later, I hope you enjoy the game and the series.

If you didn't, shame on you.

DirecTV Impact: My Introduction to the NFL Package & Picks for Week 7

For much of my adult life, I have known about the NFL package, but never got it for several reasons - (1) we never had DirecTV and (2) I never felt the need to fork up the dough to watch a mediocre Niners team even if we did have it. Also, there was the 4 years of Sundays where I was at college and the NFL package would have been useless.

Welcome to the NFL Package, Mr. Bolek

In previous years, I have gone to a local bar and spent anywhere between a games-worth and 2 games-worth of time watch the full slate of NFL action on different TVs. Funny thing is, you end up spending more money over the season at the bar for drinks and food than you ever would just ordering the package.

Enter 2011 - and I am the proud co-owner of an NFL package with a friend of mine. And it's been great being able to focus on 3 games with the three TV setup that he has in his basement. I've been able to catch all of my Niners games - and shockingly they've been watchable games from a Niners perspective.

More importantly, as a gambler, it's allowed me the chance to watch certain teams and see how they play better than reading a stat sheet ever could. Seeing box scores can tell you a story of a game, but how something happened (i.e. a receiver getting yards because his defender fell down rather than earning it against a standing defender) allows you to see more of a complete story.

That's not to say that I never took notice to these things before - it's just that I've been able to focus on these games better in a setting that wasn't as distracting as a bar. These mental notes I've taken of the few teams I've watched has allowed me to handicap some of these games better.

Hopefully I'll continue to see great Niners results and sharpen my handicapping skills at the same time.


Fools Gold & Week 7 Picks

Last week, Tampa Bay did just as I predicted - a 26-20 upset win over the Saints. This moves Fools Gold to an impressive 5-1 record, with all 5 winners actually winning straight up.

A couple of games stand out on the schedule as far as deceiving lines go, so I'll narrow it to one.

Pittsburgh (-4) at Arizona - Coming off a pair of home wins, including an ugly one against the lowly Jaguars, the Steelers are laying only 3.5 points against another opponent with only one win (Arizona's only win was in Week 1 against Carolina).

Pittsburgh enters the game beaten up. Polomalu will play after passing his post-concussion test, Mendenhall will play after sitting out a game due to injury. The offensive line has been dealing with injuries all year.

Meanwhile, Arizona comes off the bye. They are 1-1 at home but very well could be 2-0 if not for a controversial call going against them late in the game of their 31-27 loss to the Giants a few weeks back. They do play better at home and outside of their Week 5 game against the Vikes, have played competitive games in the first quarter of the year.

I anticipate a good effort from Arizona this week, a good game from Beanie Wells, and an upset win for the Cardinals.

Fools Gold Pick for Week 7: Arizona +4
Fools Gold (YTD: 5-1 (4-1, +$115 when betting it))

Other Week 7 Plays and Leans

StL +13 at Dallas - I caught the line at +13 when news broke that Bradford might play. I figured I'd take a chance that he would play. Even if he doesn't, I think this is too many points for Dallas to lay. All 5 of the Cowboys' games this year have been decided by 4 points or less (dating back to last year, it's 11 straight games decided within that amount). Another angle I'm playing here - according to a stat I found in one of my gambling forums, teams who have lost 5 straight games against the spread (as the Rams have) are 24-1 ATS in the 6th game. I'm not sure how far the trend dates back, but I'm willing to take the chance. Already booked at 13, may put more on it as long as it stays in the 12-13 range.

Tampa Bay +1.5 vs. Chicago - This game is being played 5 time zones to the east. While Tampa Bay has already settled into the time zone change, the Bears are probably flying over there as I type this (Thursday night). Learning from a previous London trip in which they were walloped by the Patriots - with many players admitting that they didn't adjust to the time change well, Tampa decided to fly out there early this time. I think Tampa might be a better team anyways, but having this bit of knowledge puts me firmly on the side of the Bucs.

KC +6 at Oakland - I think Palmer may have an adjustment period. KC coming off of a bye and a 2-game win streak. I expect Jackie Battle to have a good game for the Chiefs and help them keep within the number in this rivalry game.

Leans: Seattle +3, NYJ +2, Ind/NO Under 48, Car/Wash Over 43.5
Keep yourself updated on Twitter @brianbolek or www.twitter.com/brianbolek

Week 6	Week 7
NFL 5-2, $250	NCAA 1-1, $45
Totals 1-1, $45	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-0	MLs 0-0
Spreads 4-1, $205	Spreads 1-1, $45
YTD: 25-19-3, +$431.60	YTD: 9-15, -$424
Totals: 9-6-1, +$299.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 14-12-2, $66	Spreads: 9-9, $11

As always, good luck to your fantasy teams, your bets and especially your teams!

30 Days & Not Confused (Chapter 7)

It's only been a month, but it feels like it's been a lot longer.

Of course, the first pictures have to be completely goofy.

I speak of the budding relationship I am in currently. It feels like the relationship has been going on for a few months - but in a good way. When you talk to someone consistently for a 30 day period, that's what will cause that feeling.

The conversations span from texts to calls, and of course, in person. They are conversations that are all over the place too - from sports to our pasts, from music to food and pretty much everything in between.

It's been a while since I've had such a wide base of conversations, especially with a g/f. I don't know if others look at that aspect of a relationship as much as I do. Looks are important, sure, but what good is a good-looking girl to date if you have nothing to talk about. Communication is the key to any relationship we develop in life, whether it be a business relationship or a personal one.

It's because of this good and open communication that I find myself more and more optimistic about what will come out of this relationship. Plans of Halloween parties and Halloween-related activities will be followed by a great birthday weekend for the lady (taking her to her first Bears game in November). There are also plans of not one but TWO! Thanksgiving dinners together (one with her family, one with mine).

(At this point, she and others of you reading this can tease me about my liking of having plans set. While I realize this is part of a self-diagnosed OCD, I attribute it more to having something to look forward to. And as you've read in the above paragraph, there's plenty to look forward to)

It's been as great of a 30-day start as one could expect to a relationship, and as you can see, the next 30 days and beyond have a lot to offer.

If you haven't had the chance to meet the lady yet, you're definitely missing out and I hope that changes soon.

Friend it Like Beckham: How FB Has Changed Social Conventions of What a Buddy is

In the past week, I've deleted about 40 friends from Facebook, and I could probably delete 40-50 more people. I've blindly accepted some friend requests in the past, notably from people from high school that I haven't spoken to since then (and really didn't speak to while in high school). I haven't been as quick to delete those ones as some other people who I've met once in my life or not at all and don't anticipate ever talking to again.

I'm wondering how many people actually go through the process of "unfriending" people. I see how many people that people are "friends" with and I laugh hysterically at it. There's no way that anyone could be friends with thousands of people. Sure, you could have met with and had a decent conversation or two with that many people over the course of your life. However, I highly doubt that any of us are truly friends with more than a hundred people at most, and that includes family.

Facebook has changed what it means to be a friend to someone. Back in the day (oh crap, using this phrase legitimately - what's next, a cane and false teeth?), friends were people that you hung out with at least once every so often. You would talk on the phone, talk at school and make plans to hang out.

Now it's probably more than just FB that changes the definition of a friend. As we grow older and move onto our new lives and careers, many of us grow apart and need technology to keep us connected. Hanging out and talking every day is not possible like it was before as a result of our new lives. So perhaps it's necessary to have these technologies to have any semblence to an "every-day friendship" like you may have once had with some people.

I also understand there are different degrees of friendship and different roles that people play in your lives. Some friends are closer, always have been close, and will be your friends whether you have a Facebook or not. Some are friends you may share a particular interest with and just share stories/activites with them and Facebook adds a dimension to your friendship with them that provides some use.

Then there's the friends who add you merely to add to their ever-growing list of friends as a way to boost their friend total. I don't know how anyone with thousands of friends (or even beyond 400-500 friends) could contact all of these people beyond the standard "Happy Birthday" messages in a given year. I don't see how it's possible. If you are a person who has this many people as a friend on FB and you can do this, I applaud you. I just don't see how I could really be friends (and decent enough friends where I know what's going on in people's lifes and hang out with them once every so often) with that many people. Hell, 368 or whatever I got right now is ridiculous.

If you find yourself deleted from my list and you read this blog every so often, no need to take offense. I'm trying to personalize Facebook to be more like who my real friends and real social network are like.

I'd love to try establishing more conversation with some people that I don't talk to as much, so if you read this and haven't talked to me in a while and would like to, please feel free to message me on the site.

Salute Your Schwartz: Weekly Blobs and Blurbs

Salute Your Schwartz, Harbaugh.

It's a shame that the Niners/Lions physical battle (with the Niners coming on top 25-19) is lost in the shadows thanks to a 15-20 second episode between the coaches where Harbaugh and Schwartz (mainly the latter) had to be separated from fighting each other. This game featured two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, and all that's being talked about after the great matchup is a bunch of fluff. Just another episode of the media and public caring too much about something that has absolutely no significance to the outcome of the game nor the outcome of future games.

Speaking of the Niners, they are looking 100 times better than I ever thought they would this year. People asked me back in January on my thoughts of the hire of Jim Harbaugh. I saw his success at Stanford and his destination before and knew he transformed teams who aren't known for their football successes into winners, but I figured it would take at least a year or two to transform the Niners. It goes to show you what a coach brings to the table. I think NFL, more than any other pro sport, is dependent on having a good coach to win. I don't think MLB managers affect all that much compared to them. I can't speak for NHL, but I think MJ could have won 50-55 games a year without a coach. Phil added about 10-15 wins a year. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think the NFL coach is the most important coach in pro sports.

MLB prediction was half right - I had the Rangers/Brewers in my 4th installment of the World Series predictions. Naturally, it didn't come in. One trend that I found interesting, and one I look forward to seeing if it will continue, is the strength of offenses over pitching in the LCSes. In gambling terms, overs (meaning the total score of both teams) went 8-3-1 combined - meaning runs were a plenty. Granted, 2 of the Texas games didn't hit the over until 11th inning home runs by Nelson Cruz, but nevertheless. I'm not gonna make a prediction on the series, but I think the scoring will continue with these lineups.


This is the time of the year for some quarterback shuffling - Some are by performance (John Beck for Grossman, Tebow for Orton, Ponder for McNabb), while others are a product of injury (Carson Palmer, Matt Moore, Charlie Whitehurst, potentially AJ Feeley getting starts). Either way, I don't expect the trend to stop. As more teams fall out of the race, teams will see what some of these back-up QBs have to offer. Then again, I just named 7 quarterbacks, with at least 5 of these guys not playing for anything other than pride and the future. So maybe it is done. Either way, I just covered my ass on both ends.


NBA on the verge of cancelling more games and I'm still not caring. Like I said last week, I think I won't start caring until February when there's no more sports to get into until baseball, and even that interest lies in Opening Day and then dies slowly into the summer months. As a bettor, I'll miss having a chance to bet some fat money lines, but it will probably be for the better.

Tebow Blows (Or: Lord of the Third Strings) and other NFL Crap

Teblow

If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?

Denver fans- Get ready for some emotion, amazing incompletions and about 3-4 wins under the wing of Reverend Tebow.

It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.

My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.

His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.

I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.

He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.

Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.

All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.

Jay Walking... Barely

How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.

All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.

To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.

By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.

This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.

"Say hello to my brittle friend - Jay Cutler"

Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.


The NFL Picks Corner

Fools Gold

Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.

This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.

Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)


Other Week 6 picks:

Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.

Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.

San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.

Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.

Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
 

Week 5	Week 6
NFL 2-5, -$132.40	NCAA 0-2, -$99
Totals 1-0, $127.60	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-1 -$40	MLs 0-0
Spreads 1-4, -$220	Spreads 0-2, -$99
YTD: 20-17-3, +$181.60	YTD: 8-14, -$424
Totals: 8-5-1, +$254.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 10-11-2, -$139	Spreads: 8-8, -$34