The Ultimate QB (QuarterBolek) Rating System: The Four Tiers of NFL QBs

From the moment that NFL coverage starts getting rampant on both the NFL Network and ESPN, you won't be able to watch a show that doesn't have a topic point relating to who should be considered the top quarterbacks (or the buzz word as of late, "elite") of the NFL.

Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.

But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.

So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:

• Those who have already won a Super Bowl
• Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win
• Those who have slightly less talent, but could win it with the right cast of characters
• Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title

If we break it down like this, here's how it would look, using the active list of quarterbacks. Note that in cases where the QB may not be known, I am either taking an educated guess as to who the starter will be or counting the QBs in the battle as one QB:

(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs

• Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco
  
  Notes: Well, this list is complete fact. No opinions on whether these guys won a Super Bowl title. For now, I think these are the first of QBs that should be used when discussing who the best is, and even some of these guys shouldn't be considered (Big Ben, Flacco - not yet anyways). Anyone else mentioned is a victim of the recency effect (i.e. one of the guys below might start out the season with a hot hand).
  
  It should be noted that Peyton's only Super Bowl win was against Rex Grossman. I could only imagine the labels that would be attached to Peyton had he never won a title and thrown that pick-6 to seal the Saints' title years back. The more I look at Peyton's career, the more I see Favre - a guy with a lengthy Hall-of-Fame career who wins a title and could/should have won more but for various reasons, didn't.

(2) Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win (no particular order) - 6 QBs

• Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck
  
  Notes: You'll notice that for the most part, these are guys who have only been in the league for a few years (with Matt Ryan being the exception). You may dispute Cam Newton being on this list, but I believe he has the talents to win a Super Bowl - he just hasn't had a chance with the Panthers defense on the other side of the ball. I am calling a playoff berth for the Cam Panthers this year.
  
  The draft class of 2012 showed itself to be the real deal. I believe all three (Luck, RG3, Wilson) will have a chance to compete in conference title game for the next decade. Who is the best of them - I have no clue yet. Who cares - let's just enjoy them without having to rank them.

(3) Those who have less talent but could win it with the right cast of characters (no particular order) - 8 QBs

•  Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill
  
  Notes: The guys above have had wildly different paths in the NFL, a few of them young but most in the league for 6+ years, none of which has led to a Super Bowl appearance. This is the most intriguing group of QBs to me, because I do believe with the right situation, these guys can win a title. It's just that unlike the guys above, I don't think they can do it solely on the talents that they have shown.
  
  Romo - as much as I want to back him, especially with all the crap people give him, he's failed to take the next step as QB. Every year, it seems like you can pencil Dallas in for a chance to win the NFC East, only to fall flat - and no, it's not all Romo's fault as many make it out to be. But it is some of his fault.
  
  Cutler - I'm interested to see his talents used by Trestman, who has been known to be an offensive guru. For right now, he hasn't shown himself to be a guy who I think will win a title.
  
  Stafford - he seems to be more of a stat stuffer than a QB who can win a title. Problem is, he's getting paid like a Super Bowl-type QB but definitely not worth the money at this point.
  
  Bradford - this seems like it's going to be a make-or-break year for Bradford, who I could easily vault into the next category of QBs if he shows some of the talents he did while he was at Oklahoma. If he can somehow propel the Rams into the playoffs, I may consider elevating him.
  
  Schaub - he's nearing his chance of winning a title in my opinion. I'm thinking a Wade Phillips defense will need to be the catalyst, with Schaub playing a secondary role in winning a title. I don't see Schaub improving so much that I can confidently say he will not win a title by carrying the load.
  
  Smith - He had a breakout year in 2011 with the Niners and was just as effective to start 2012, but I believe Smith needs a system that suits his talents in order to succeed. KC will likely never win a Super Bowl with Smith carrying the team - they'd need a talented base around him to do it (a la Schaub).
  
  Dalton - He's about as intriguing to me as Bradford, maybe a little more so. What Dalton and A.J. Green have going is special, and I am a believer in the Bengals defense. This is my surprise team this year (I have them making it to the Super Bowl), so I will be keeping an eye on Dalton the whole year to see if he can have the big games (a la Rodgers & Brees) that will carry the Bengals to victory on days where the defense might be a little down.
  
  Tannehill - The jury is still out on him (as you could probably say on most of the 2012 draft class). I believe if he sticks with Miami long enough, he will have a shot to win some AFC East titles once Brady retires. He showed a lot more talent than many thought he would. I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it to a AFC title game, but down the road, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

 (4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs

• Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith, Matt Flynn, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Philip Rivers, E.J. Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
  
  Notes: Many of these guys have had their chances with their time in the league (notably Sanchez & Rivers, who have made 3 AFC title games between them - I don't see either one of them even coming close to these career achievements again, yet alone a Super Bowl as a starter). Vick, who made an NFC title game a long time ago (remember? seems so long ago) has seen his better days and is likely nearing his end as a starting QB in the next year or two. He's never shown himself to be reliable enough to win a title. Palmer has been like Stafford - a stat stuffer.
  
  Some of these first/second-year QBs, the jury is still out, although I'm just going off a hunch at this point that guys like Weeden & Manuel will never lead a team to a Super Bowl. I don't see Ponder ever leading the Vikings to the promised land (Adrian Peterson was the MVP for a reason). The others, I don't care to mention.

So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.

Stupid-stision: The Myth of the Madden Curse and Other Curses

(some Stevie Wonder to start the blog - can't beat it)

When you read my blog on a daily basis (because I'm sure you all do), what's your way of reading it? Do you do a lap around the block or eat a couple slices of pineapple beforehand? Do you walk upstairs backwards and then turn your TV to Channel 44? Sounds silly, doesn't it?

It's no different than how people are with sports, but both athletes and fans alike have their own superstitions and routines that they do before they watch their team play or before they play in the big game. I guess I see the reason that athletes do it - as they are the ones playing and sometimes you have to be in the right frame of mind mentally to play at your highest level, screwed up routine be damned.

But for fans? It seems absurd that people would eat the same meal every Sunday an hour before their team kicks off "because otherwise, the team will lose!" Yes - your team will be cursed if you don't eat that three-egged omlette with a side of wheat toast. Two eggs? Might as well wait for victory next week.

I write about curses and superstition on the eve of the new Madden cover for the 2013 version of the video game being announced. This year, fans are able to vote for the cover, with the finalists being Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Willis, Calvin Johnson and Cam Newton, with Newton having the inside edge in my opinion. If Newton gets voted as the cover boy, does that mean he will be "cursed"? To many, it does - as there is a supposed "Madden Curse" that has plagued just about every cover athlete since there's been an athlete on it. I'm here to debunk this myth and help you get your heads out of your asses.

Here's the list of Madden cover athletes (since 2001, when the cover started featuring someone other than the rotund announcer)

2001 - Eddie George; 2002 - Daunte Culpepper; 2003 - Marshall Faulk; 2004 - Michael Vick; 2005 - Ray Lewis; 2006 - Donovan McNabb; 2007 - Shaun Alexander; 2008 - Vince Young; 2009 - Brett Favre; 2010 - Troy Polamalu + Larry Fitzgerald; 2011 - Drew Brees; 2012 - Peyton Hillis


While many of these athletes underperformed in the year that they were the featured guy on the cover, many of them had good reasons. Remember that the year on the cover is what year that season's Super Bowl is played, not the regular season itself.

For the 2000 season - Eddie George actually played well - 403 carries for 1509 yards and 14 touchdowns. Like many running backs (especially some on this list), when you have that many carries, a deterioration is likely to occur in the following years.

In 2001, Daunte Culpepper was entering his second full year as the Vikings starting QB, but saw his numbers dip from 3937 yards, 33 TDs and 16 interceptions to 2612/14/13 as the Vikings limped to a 5-11 record. Culpepper missed the final five games of the year with a knee injury and continued to have crappy years until 2003-2004, when he averaged 4,000 yards, 32 TDs & only 11 picks. Hardly a curse of a career by any means.

2002 was the first year Marshall Faulk didn't register 1000 yards rushing since 1996, but like Eddie George, had plenty of mileage on his legs entering that year (over 2000 carries entering the season). The Rams went from Super Bowl runner-ups to a 7-9 record and missing the playoffs. However, this was NOT because Marshall Faulk was on the cover.

2003 - Michael Vick got hurt in the preseason and didn't return until Week 13. His curse thereafter was self-inflicted in the form of dog fighting. Again, not a product of the Madden curse.

2004 - Ray Lewis was named to his 7th Pro Bowl. He got hurt the next year, but has continued his All-Pro career ever since.

2005 - Donovan McNabb was on pace to easily eclipse his career high in yards before getting injured in November and playing only 9 games (2507 yards), with the Eagles going 4-5 in those starts. He did this in spite of having Terrell Owens as a distraction throughout the year. Some say the Madden curse causes injuries: I say it's 260 pound linebackers doing the job.

2006 - Shaun Alexander: See George and Faulk. Too many miles on the legs to be effective at this point in his career.

2007 - Vince Young. Not sure why he was a cover boy. Probably had a lot to do with his feats the year before while leading Texas to the BCS Championship over USC in thrilling fashion. I'd say this was less of a curse than it was a poor decision to put Young on the cover. Despite his 9 TD to 17 interception ratio, the Titans somehow made the playoffs.

2008 - Brett Favre played his first year outside of Lambeau Field and struggled through injuries as the Jets went 9-7 and missed out on the playoffs in Favre's only year. Playing through injuries was a staple of Favre's career, but it seemed more noticeable this particular year. By this year, many had already began accepting the Madden Curse as fact. I simply say it was Favre being Favre and having one of his several mediocre seasons in the latter half of his career.

2009 - Troy Polamalu got hurt in the season opener, missed a few games, then came back and got hurt again; meanwhile, Fitzgerald played in all 16 games, amassing 97 catches, 1092 yards and a league-high 13 receiving TDs. I'll say the cover was 50% here.

2010 - En route to another Pro Bowl, Drew Brees led the Saints to an 11-5 mark, the year after they won the Super Bowl. It was the 5th year in a row he threw for 4300+ yards, but he did have a career-high 22 picks. As many of you remember, the Saints were upset in the first round by the 7-9 Seahawks, the first team ever to make the playoffs with a losing record.

2011 - I have no clue why Peyton Hillis was even allowed on the cover.  His 2010 season wasn't terrible (1177 yards rushing, 13 total TDs), but I wouldn't say it's the pedigree of a cover boy. Needless to say, to keep everyone who believes in the curse believing, Hillis flamed out, playing in only 10 games while getting half the yards and a third of TDs from the year before.

In my opinion, many of these guys who were deemed "curses" should have never been cover guys in the first place, whether it be because of the decline in skill (for the running backs as noted) or just not talented enough to be cover guys in the first place (Young and Hillis). In a sport as physical as football, injuries are inevitable. Believe in curses all you want, but these guys get hurt just like 100% of football players at some point.

The same curse junk is applied to the Sports Illustrated cover, but when you run a magazine 52 weeks a year, there will be times when you feature a guy who will then lose a big game or a big tournament - it's sports. Do you know who has been featured on the cover of that the most times? Michael Jordan. Heard of him?

Let's not get carried away with curses and superstitions, whether it be in sports or daily life. Your diet or choice of clothing isn't going to change any sports outcome.

Now finish whatever thing it is you do when you read my blog, blink three times and close this browser.

Bracket Update & Other Sport Shorts

Boy, it's been a slow sports week, hasn't it? Hard to believe that the Peyton Manning signing to Denver is not even top 3 news this week. This Saints fiasco along with Tebow being traded to the Jets, then not, then supposedly being able to "choose" the Jets over the Jaguars after all, has made for an interesting start to the week. And notice....this is all NFL news - a season that doesn't even start for another six months.

The important news first:

Bracket challenge (Brian vs. Jen - Winner Winner gets Dinner Dinner)

Once again, it looks like I picked the wrong upsets for the 18th year in a row. To date, I think the best upset I ever picked in a Round 1 was San Diego over Uconn in 2008. I tried a 14 over 3 (St. Bonnies shat all over themselves at the end, going for two 2s while down 3 with less than 6 seconds left), 12 over 5 (S Florida worked, but I hardly call that an upset), but most of them ended up failing. I only had 8 of 16 Sweet 16 teams right, with the biggest seed I picked correctly left being Xavier as a 10.

Meanwhile, the lady has a one point lead on me (37 to 36), with her edging me by 1 point in the first round and also landing just 8 of 16 Sweet 16 squads. Her championship team (Kansas) was trailing much of the game against Purdue, but they managed to squeak out a win and advance to play the lowest seed remaining in the tourney, facing the #11 seeded NC St on Friday night.

Luckily, ALL of my Final Four teams are alive (Louisville, Ohio St, Kentucky, UNC), so I have a good chance to get this dinner from the girlfriend. She lost two of her Final Four, with Murray State & Vanderbilt falling within an hour of each other this past Saturday (she has Kansas & Kentucky left). I'll have to pick something good for her to make - perhaps one of her BBQ chicken pizzas (mmmmmm). I have a great shot of winning this if I can land 2 or 3 of my Final teams and Kanas doesn't win it all. I'd love to win this bracket challenge so I don't have to eat these words. I'd rather eat a homemade pizza to be honest.


NFL News Galore!

I must say the week didn't start out the way I wanted it for the Niners. Peyton Manning decided he'd rather end his career in Mile High than go to a team that was two muffed punts away from a Super Bowl last year. I don't give a crap about Alex Smith's confidence coming from this. With this being a business, I don't have any sympathy for these guy's feelings. He had a chance to sign with other teams, but didn't, so here we are. He has a new contract with the Niners (3 years I believe, I don't feel like looking it up), which I believe gives us a chance for outs each year in case he regresses back to 2005-2010 Alex Smith. Colin Kaepernick remains the back-up. I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do sooner rather than later - I think he will start 2013 as the man behind center. He may even get an extended look at points this year if Smith shows off his old form. Remember, Smith has been benched for the likes of Troy Smith and T.J. Sullivan, among others, so it wouldn't shock me if Harbaugh took a good look at CK for a chance to start at some point in 2012.

Coming from the Manning news, Tebow was traded to the Jets (along w/ a draft pick) for a couple of picks. I don't consider this a major move for any of these teams' futures, only more of a distraction for the Jets. I follow an NFL beat writer from NY on Twitter (Bart Hubbuch), who was losing his mind with all the NFL news going on today - and only half of it had to do with his city. Many people who root for Tebow root for him irrationally. By that, it's not so much perfomance-based as it is what he represents - a supposed underdog who leads his team to victory. I won't even bring up the religion angle (ok, I just did, screw that), as that plays a big part in his cultish following, who for some reason thinks he is a capable NFL QB. I admire his work ethic and his attitude, but I give him a 1% chance of ever being a great quarterback consistently. I give Alex Smith 5%, so that tells you what I think of each of them.

The Saints' aftermath of BountyGate was done in true Roger Goddell fashion, in the form of a year-long suspension for the coach, indefinite suspension for the hitman orchestrator Gregg Williams & the loss of draft picks for the Saints the next couple years, among other things. No player suspensions have come of this year, but there will be. Current and former Saints are shocked, with Drew Brees speaking highly of Sean Payton and wanting more information as to why the punishment was so steep. Apparently, Brees has been living under a rock all these weeks since the story broke. Lord knows Brees would be asking for the league to lay similar suspensions and punishments on another team (say the Falcons) if they were found to have a bounty on him. He doesn't give a crap only because it was his team bending the rules.

Speaking of Brees, any chance this debacle makes him leave New Orleans? I'm not sure how competitive the team will be this year - I expect this to be a HUGE distraction this year. And you know referees are going to be flag-happy this year against the Saints, with any hint of late hits getting a fast yellow hanky on the ground. I know Brees is franchised right now, but it makes me highly question his length of stay in the Big Easy.

Baseball is Back (Almost)

If you haven't already looked at my 2012 Baseball Preview, I suggest you get reading it RIGHT NOW RIGHT HERE. I am looking forward to baseball returning, if only for the consistent nice weather - although this weather right now resembles it right now.

I just finished my first fantasy baseball draft, having the last pick of a 10-team draft. I drafted former teammates Ryan Braun & Prince Fielder with the first picks. Some other highlights include getting a pair of aces with my next two picks (Lincecum & Felix Hernandez) and me drafting both ends of the Mariners-Yankees trade from the offseason (Michael Pineda, Jesus Montero). If you really want my whole team analysis, I'll be glad to provide it to you. I also drafted a couple of White Sox (Brent Morel & Matt Thornton), which usually ends up happening even though I'd prefer to keep my homerism out of these drafts. I did absolutely no draft study on this, so we'll see how this year turns out.


Until next time, peace out my folks.

It Doesn't Matter What's Right...

...It's only wrong if you get caught.

I always come back to this Tool lyric (title + opening graf) when a story about someone blatantly bends or breaks the rules/laws which govern them. This story now applies to the New Orleans Saints, who went from a laughingstock of a franchise to one that became instantly loved and rooting on by the general public as it won its first ever Super Bowl a couple years back.

Now, they're heading back to the gutter after being found guilty of putting bounties on injuring players on opposing teams the past three seasons under the coordination of Gregg Williams. What makes it even more disgusting is that everyone in the organization (from the owner all the way through the coaching ranks of the team) knew about the program.

There's several questions that I'm wondering about in the aftermath of this:

1. What will the punishment be for this? The Patriots were fined $250K and Belichick was fined the maximum $500K for what happened with Spygate, which involved the illegal taping of NY Jets practices to pick up defensive signals. I think the maximum amount should apply to the Saints - that is if Commissioner Goodell wants to send a strong message amid the Player Safety Era of football. I'd throw in fines for the owner and the coaches, some suspensions (for coaches involved) & taking away a couple of first round picks the next couple years.
2. Who will be punished? I think Gregg Williams (the defensive coordinator at the time) will get most of the heat, but punishment should go to all parties involved. The punishment mentioned in the previous point would hold everyone responsible for the bounty fiasco.
3. Will fans hate the Saints now? Remember when everyone was rooting on the Saints a couple Februaries ago only years after a hurricane nearly decapitated their entire city? Now that this story is out there, I find it hard to believe people will have the same love for this team that they once did. Whether players were directly involved with it or not is a moot point - I could see people booing Brees much like they boo Brady, but probably not to the same extent.

Speaking of Brady, this "Bountygate" story has amazing parallels to the Spygate scandal that cannot be ignored. Some are coincidence, others are just fascinating:

1. Both stories started with underdog championship teams being cheered by America following a tragedy. It's hard to believe being so many years removed from it, but there was a point in time where people actually liked the Patriots, who were two touchdown underdogs against the St. Louis Rams, considered "The Greatest Show On Turf". It was the first Super Bowl played after 9-11, so it was only fitting that a team named "The Patriots" would be represented. They even started a trend of teams being announced as one as they ran through the tunnel as One. You know the rest - the start of the Patriots dynasty, with much of the public enjoying the huge upset.
   
   Likewise, the Saints were a couple years removed from the destruction of their hometown to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which forced them to play at LSU's stadium for a season. Once the stadium was ready to host games again, a new man under center (Drew Brees) gave the 'Aints their first legitimate shot at success. They lost to the Bears in the 2007 NFC Championship game but took the next step three years later en route to their first Super Bowl win.
2. Both teams were knowingly breaking the rules. If you read all the quotes from Gregg Williams, he knew what he was doing was wrong, but he didn't give a crap. He only cares now BECAUSE HE GOT CAUGHT! If they never got caught, you'd never hear a peep of an "apology" from him. Belichick knew what he was doing was wrong, got caught, and thus, paid a heavy fine for it. I expect the same for the Saints.
3. Both teams were knowingly breaking rules that many other teams break.  Again, if you read quotes about both stories from football insiders (media, players, coaches), you'll know that what the Patriots and Saints did was not just isolated to their teams. They just happened to be the ones with tangible evidence against them for the league to pursue action against them. Players are tweeting about the NFL's release of this story with a collective "This happens everywhere". Similarly, Jimmy Johnson (former Cowboys coach) has been on record saying that many coaches take film on opposing team's defensive signals, making Spygate as much (or as little) of a secret as the bounty scandal.
4. Both team's head coaches had a role in the scandal.  Belichick's role may have been more pronounced, but Payton knew about the bounty system that was in place. You can't absolve blame from him just because he wasn't the person who designed the scheme - he was an accessory to an NFL crime the likes which haven't been seen since Spygate. After the Spygate scandal, much of the general public turned their once-liking of the Patriots into complete loathing, which continues to this day.
   
   The one advantage that Payton has over Belichick is the bands of media people that love him. Belichick always comes off as a hooded robot in press conferences, trying to talk up every opponent like they are the 1985 Bears; whereas Payton seems to come of as a personable guy. Perhaps this works to his advantage and he doesn't take a huge PR hit like Belichick and the Pats did.

The jury remains out on how the general public will treat the Saints story - whether they will embrace the team under the notion that "this is something every team does" or whether a chorus of boos will meet them at opposing stadiums for years to come.

I hope that fans don't give the Saints a pass for what I consider a far bigger scandal than Spygate, considering the backdrop of the NFL the past few years has centered around player safety.

I expect Goddell to lay the hammer down - now will the public?

Judging Today's Crop of QBs (not named Tom or Peyton) & chances for HOF

I decided to break down the current worthy QBs in terms of their chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm currently working on another piece which shows that there is a correlation between making/winning Super Bowls & making the Hall of Fame as a QB.

I decided to analyze a few QBs that are at or near the elite level and have played for the better part of the past decade that may have some level of debate on whether they are in the Hall of Fame. Brady and Peyton excluded for obvious Canton busts already being built for them.

Sorry, no Alex Smith or Rex Grossman. I hope you can make it through.

Eli Manning

The current matchup, a rematch of 4 years ago, features one QB who will definitely be a Hall of Famer in Tom Brady versus a likely one in Eli Manning. Some ask - does Eli have to win this to make the Hall of Fame?

Short answer: no. Longer answer - if he continues to lead his team to playoff successes every so often(and I'd argue they've succeeded this season regardless of outcome on Sunday), I have no doubt he will be a Hall of Famer.

Everyone seems to want to compare Eli to his brother as if to minimize what the younger brother has accomplished so far. Critics say that Eli benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime catch by David Tyree & a stellar defense. To those critics, I raise you an overachieving Bears team headed by Rex Grossman as the one and only team that Peyton has beaten to win a ring.

I know Eli is not as good as Peyton at this point, but who the hell is?

Current HOF verdict: IN

Drew Brees

Brees has been a crucial part in not only building the Saints into a perennial contender, but also providing the city of New Orleans a much needed shot in the arm for morale purposes. He has led the Saints to 2 NFC Championship Games, winning a Super Bowl a few years ago. He fits the mold of what is expected from a Hall of Fame QB.

Current HOF verdict: IN

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is well on his way to making his way to Canton. In what will likely be recognized as an MVP season despite the playoff failure, he will be adding to the accolades that include Super Bowl MVP for his performance last year in beating the Steelers. As long as he continues this career arc and doesn't get hurt for an extended period of time, I like his chances of not only making the Hall of Fame, but also winning another ring or two before his career is done.

Current HOF verdict: pending (likely in)

Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben has made quite a name for himself on and off the field since he joined the Steelers in 2004 for good and bad reasons. I don't think the incidents he has had will hurt his chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what to make of his chances though. Does he have the credentials of a Hall of Fame QB? Does he seem like a Hall of Fame QB? I'd say yes (3 SB appearances, 2 wins) and....I'm not sure. If he does make it, I don't think he'll make it first ballot.

Current HOF verdict: Leaning IN

Tony Romo

There's no questioning the numbers that Romo has put up in his career have been stellar. You could win a lot of bets from people if you wagered that Romo has a better career passer rating than every QB in NFL history but Aaron Rodgers among qualifying QBs (according to Pro Football Reference). However, there is a huuuuuuuuge void in his resume, one that will forever haunt his public image (ie - ESPN junkies) and probably voters as well. The 1000 lb gorilla in the room of no playoff success, particularly not making at least one Super Bowl to this point, will likely keep him out of Canton if it doesn't change. I know my Cowboys friends can tell you that it hasn't always been his fault with the Cowboy collapses, but until Dallas has moderate playoff success, these ghosts will haunt his chances (fair or not).

Current HOF verdict: OUT

Philip Rivers

See above critique of Romo. OUT.