Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: New England

As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.

Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.

My eighth feature will highlight a New England Patriots fan. Adam Stefko became a fan of this team because of his dad's allegiance when he was a kid, not because of their Super Bowl run in the 2000s (which many people may suspect).

Here's a list of other blogs in the out-of-town feature series:

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Tennessee Titans
3. New Orleans Saints 
4. Minnesota Vikings 
5. Denver Broncos

6. Kansas City Chiefs

7. San Francisco 49ers

Don't mistake Adam Stefko for a fair-weathered New England Patriots fan. He didn't become a fan of the team when their run of success began in the early part of this century.

"I became a fan of the team the same way I'm a fan of any team," he said. "My dad liked them so I automatically just followed suit. Of course, I can think for myself now, but they happen to be a good team, so why not keep the loyalty?"

While he doesn't mind the Bears, Adam doesn't go out of his way to root for them.

"I would say I typically kind of root for them," he said, "but I often end up reaffirming the reason I don't like them as much as the Patriots."

He hasn't had any issues with following the Patriots in his life, including his last couple years living in the suburbs of Chicago. He doesn't get too much of a hard time about the Patriots since most people end up agreeing that they are a good team.

Lately, his main consumption of New England football is the Red Zone channel, which he thinks he prefers over having NFL Sunday Ticket.

"It's not the easiest following the Patriots when all you hear on the news is the Bears, but I do alright on Sundays," Adam said.

I couldn't find many others of him on FB w/ Pats gear. Hence, the look.

He's never been to a New England game, even though he had a chance to go to Soldier Field in 2010 when the Patriots routed the Bears 36-7. He ended up passing on the chance to go due to the high ticket prices, but he didn't mind missing out on the extreme weather conditions.

"It was a ridiculously cold day, so I think my body thanks me for not going," he said.

Adam believes that B-Bo Knows predictions of the team are accurate, but hopes they go a little further than the prediction of a loss to the Texans in the playoffs.

"Obviously, I hope that they do even better and win the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl," he said. "But who knows. If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. I'd be alright with that."

Despite consistently being one of the best teams in the league over the past decade, the Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl since the 2004 season.

Nevertheless, Adam doesn't think that Bill Belichick & Tom Brady have anything to prove to maintain or enhance their legacy as the elite coach/QB combo.

"Even without that recent of a Super Bowl win, they have proven throughout the regular season and postseason that they've got a great system and still perform rather well," he said.

	Adam Stefko
	(few years in suburbs of Chicago)
Favorite team	Patriots
A fan since…	childhood
# of games attended	none
Choice of Team Consumption	Red Zone Channel
Favorite Player(s) All-Time	Tedi Bruschi
Favorite Player Currently	Aaron Hernandez
2012 Prediction	(14-2, Super Bowl Champs)
Vegas Win Projection	12
(as of 9-3-12) 5dimes.eu
Over/under?	Over
Odds to win division - 5dimes.eu	(-360) (bet 360 to win 100)
Super Bowl odds	23/4 (+575) co-favorites w/ GB
(as of 9-3-12) - 5dimes.eu

Brass Baughs: How the Niners Coach Defied Conservative Nature of NFL to Win Saturday

Did you happen to catch the rare occurence at the end of that Saints/49ers game?

No, I'm not talking about the 4 lead changes in the last 3 minutes (a playoff first).

I'm also not talking about Alex Smith's squad besting a team led by the NFL-record holder of passing yards in a season.

I'm talking about Jim Harbaugh. Specifically, the pair of brass balls that he possessed at the end of the game to go for the touchdown.

Sure, it doesn't seem like much of a risk to the average person, especially with a timeout left in the team's pocket with 14 seconds left. However, with how much conservatism we are used to seeing in the NFL on a weekly basis, the chance of a ball getting picked off or turned over would be in the minds of many coaches. Many coaches within that range (14 yard line, down 3) would play it safe and kick the field goal to force overtime.

If Alex Smith throws a pick, analysts would pick apart why Harbaugh would call for such a risky play when overtime is well within reach with a short field goal and a Pro-Bowl kicker. Nevermind that the Niners have the least number of turnovers in the league this year. A play that goes against the ultra-conservative nature of the NFL would get Harbaugh lambasted if it backfires.

You may remember John Madden suggesting to Tom Brady & the Patriots to take a knee and play for overtime on their last drive in their upset against the Rams in 2002. With this line of thinking, Madden represents the crowd of people who suggest playing it safe versus going for the winner while it is in your control and risking the chance of loss.

There are several problems with this conservative line of thinking that make the Harbaugh-types seem rational:

1. This assumes you can control your fate better when delaying the outcome of the game. Who is to say how the coin with flip in overtime? Even with the new rules, if the team who gets the ball scores the TD right away, the game is over. You don't think the Saints could score on the initial possession of OT easier than most?
2. Sports are about winning, not avoiding loss. Unfortunately, too many guys will be uber-conservative and take the chance of losing through that route rather than risking blowing a lead or a chance of tying a game.

One memory engrained in my head came from the Niners' previous coach, Mike Singletary, against the Minnesota Vikings in Brett Favre's first of two seasons there. No one speaks of the way Singletary handled the team's last drive when they were holding onto a 4 point lead with less than 2 minutes left - frankly because he was playing it by the book. Singletary called for three straight runs so that the Vikings would use all 3 of their timeouts, including a run on 3rd and long.

As any Niners fan remembers from that game, Favre got the ball back with plenty of time and found Greg Lewis in the back of the endzone much to the delight of the Metrodome crowd. Moments from being 3-0, Singletary didn't learn that the best way to win a game is when the ball is in your hands. On third and long, when a team can win a game with just one first down, a run is conceding control of winning the game. Especially against a hall-of-fame quarterback.

Take the opposite scenario: a few years back, the Patriots were holding onto a lead against the Colts and had a fourth and one in their own territory. I emphasize "holding onto" since the Colts had stormed back from a three-score deficit. About 30-31 coaches at that time would have punted the ball and taken their chances with stopping Peyton Manning one time with less than two minutes to spare.

However, Bellichick decided that he didn't want to take his chances with his defense against Peyton and instead went for it. Needless to say, they didn't convert; Peyton led the Colts on a short drive for a TD and Bellichick was raped in the press for going for it.

They failed to mention that a conversion would have sealed a Patriots victory. Also failed to mention that Peyton Manning is the other team's QB and was as automatic as they came at that time.

The "by-the-book" nature that many media & football personnel make moves like that (getting 1 yard to seal a win) seem absurd and yet allows guys like Singletary off the hook for running it three times with the ultimate intention of getting the team to burn three timeouts only to punt.

Let's give Harbaugh his credit for going for the win.

He showed that having a pair of brass ones is the best way to play.

Obligatory 2012 Playoff Predictions & Look Back

As an occasional blogger of sporting items, I'm required by law to give my Super Bowl predictions.

Before I do that, I'm looking back on my pre-season predictions, which I picked Green Bay over San Diego (half of that prediction makes me hurl - and no Bears fans, it's not the GB part). At least my NFC Championship of GB vs NO looks reasonable.

Not counting the 3 teams that I said would get the exact win total set forth by Vegas, I went 15-14 in predicting over/unders of win totals (based on win projections in early August). My best division was the AFC East, as I correctly projected the division order & 2 of the teams' win totals on the dot (NE & Buf). Worst division, convienently enough, was the NFC West, in which I would have been on the wrong side of all 4 totals.

I predicted 4 of the 8 division winners: GB, NO, Hou & NE.
Whiffed bad on some of the others: Phil, StL, Pitt (not so bad), SD

I got 8 of the 12 playoff participants right, going wrong on guessing Phil, StL, SD & NYJ.

Overall, I give myself a B- on predictions. Usually, I don't get that many playoff teams right, and my Super Bowl winner is still alive.


On to the 2012 Predictions (Redux)

I already gave my first-round predictions:

Pitt over Den (Pitt covers -8), NO over Det (Det covers +11), Hou over Cin (Hou covers -4), NYG over Atl (NYG covers -3)

From there, that'd lead to the following matchups (and predicted point spread) in Divisional Round:

Pitt +5 at NE - I give NE the win and cover - Pitt may be too banged up to survive this year beyond Denver.
Hou +8.5 at Balt - Baltimore smells blood here. They grab the 2 score win and cover.
NO -3.5 at SF - I don't want to get my hopes up and say SF wins, I say they cover but don't win. NO by 3.
NYG +9.5 at GB - Things never go exactly like they should in the divisional round - I say NYG pulls out the upset straight up at Lambeau, a la 2008. NYG's pass rush will give Rodgers fits.

Conference championship

NYG +9.5 at NO - NO would loooooove to have another home game after this weekend, and if my predictions come true, they'll get another. Brees has hit the ground running in the last half of the year since the Rams loss, winning their last 8 games by a 35-18 margin, averaging 490 yards/game while allowing 390/game in that span (a whopping 100 yards per game. In this streak includes a late Novermber beatdown of NYG. I think NYG's luck will end here - NO goes to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time in 3 years and wins by 14.

Balt +3 at NE - As everyone who watches football this year knows, NE has a defense that would make the Swiss military look tough. I think Baltimore will be able to expose this weakness: Rice goes off for a 200 yards combined day, and their defense will do enough to thwart NE's pass offense. Still feels weird backing Balt (Flacco) over NE (Brady), but here we are. Welcome to 2012!

Super Bowl

Balt (+4) vs NO - Classic matchup between strong offense vs elite defense (moreso than Balt/NE - I consider NO more well-rounded and talented) in the final game. The initial edge has to go to the Saints, seeing as though the game is in a dome and they have been playing games like they're collecting medals at a track meet. However, on the game's biggest stage, I say defense wins out and we see John Harbaugh hoisting the Lombardi, with constant obligatory viewings of his bitter brother Jim watching from a press box.

Your 2012 Super Bowl Champions: the Baltimore Ravens!

Feel free to offer your own predictions. I'll probably whiff on many of these (per usual), and I hope I do. I'd love SF to win to collect on my $50 Super Bowl bet from a few weeks ago (to win $750), oh yeah, and cuz I'm a fan of them....(yeah, that reason as well).

Enjoy the playoffs everyone.