QB or not QB: The Cynical Views of a 49ers Fan

Not much since the Jeff Garcia era has gone right for the San Francisco 49ers - from the numerous coaching changes to the botched QB decisions. No matter how you dice it, as a #1 pick, Alex Smith has failed to become the franchise guy that any team who drafts a QB with the top selection should expect. Yet....for some reason, the Niners/Harbaugh want to bring the model of inconsistency back into the fold for next year. I guess it makes some sense, given the lack of practice time that any new QB, including Colin Kaepernick, would have due to the lockout.

On the bright side (and the only bright side) I can find about bringing Smith back is that he finally may have a competent offensive mind to work with. Harbaugh had a big hand in developing Andrew Luck into the future 2012 #1 pick (barring injury) and also putting Stanford football on the map in a very short amount of time, capping off his last season with the Cardinal in a very impressive romping of V-Tech.

With the drafting of a new QB, you'd think I'd be happier, given the impending end of the Alex Smith era and the hope of success with the young guy. However, Kaepernick enters the NFL on similar terms as Smith did: both men played on offenses in college that make for a difficult transition into the pro game. Smith played under the tutelage of Urban Meyer while Meyer was still an up-and-coming coach for Utah. Meyer emphasized the "spread offense", which usually uses 4-5 receiver sets to space out defenders and give the offense more room to run and pass. In college systems like this, the QB used is often quick and usually has an option to run or pass. Here are Smith's statistics in his junior year, after which he declared for the NFL draft:

• 32 TDs, 4 Ints in 317 attempts for 2952 yards, completing over two-thirds of his passes in the process
• 135 attempts for 631 yards (deceiving because in college, they count sacks as negative rushing yards), 10 TDs rushing

Comparably, Kaepernick just finished his college stint at Nevada playing in the Pistol formation, which is almost a merger of the shotgun and the I formation, except it's just 1 running back behind the QB as he stands in shotgun. Like Smith, Kaepernick's system emphasized the option as a big part of its offense, resulting in some well-rounded Smith-like stats for CK's senior year campaign:

• 22 TDs, 8 picks in 359 passes for 3022 yards, completing about 65% of his passes
• 173 attempts for 1206 yards (7 yards/carry) for 20 TDs

In each man's last seasons, both contributed exactly 42 TDs (roughly 3.5 per game), with Smith having the edge in passing efficiency and Kaepernick literally running away with the rushing title between the two. Both men had similar yardage and completion totals. Both men also took great advantage of the systems that allowed them to put up the stats that they did.

However, it remains to be seen whether Kaepernick will fall prey to the system QB problem that Smith had. Lining up under center is a lot different than in an option-based shotgun formation, which could never work in the NFL due to the speed of the game. I do think that both quarterbacks will benefit from having a former QB coaching them.

If neither can succeed with this guy as coach, then forget about it. Personally, the inevitable signing of Alex Smith is puzzling, but since it is inevitable, I'd like to see both the new coach and the motivation of a draft pick to light a fire under his ass to give Smith a decent chance at improvement.

Time will tell, and hopefully time will allow this to play out as scheduled. I wish whatever QB plays this year the best, and hopefully the best results in our first division championship since Mooch was coach.