NFL 2013 - A New Betting Approach

They say that NFL predictions are like assholes - everyone has one. Not only do I have NFL predictions, but I'm also an asshole (not really, I'm a nice guy).

Back in June, I posted my way too early 2013 preview, which highlighted my love of both NFL teams in Ohio. Since my opinion hadn't changed on either the Bengals or the Browns, I decided to put money where my mouth is with both teams.

My first set of bets centered around the Bengals being +235 to win the AFC North (odds which have fallen to +185 since) along with their 30/1 Super Bowl odds. I am still pondering a bet on their Over 8.5 wins, but the juice has gotten really high - I'm looking to see either a drop in juice or perhaps an alternate over to bet that would cut the juice.

This weekend, I made my second set of bets. At the one and only Super Bowlek fantasy draft, I bet my friend that Cleveland will make the playoffs this season (at 2/1 odds, which I found out should have been 4/1...oh well). Then, while seeing that the site added odds on specific teams making the playoffs, I took Baltimore's odds of not making the playoffs (-105) as opposed to their under 8.5 wins. The only way I get screwed with this bet is if Baltimore makes the playoffs with an 8-8 record, which is highly unlikely to happen. Otherwise, I'm looking at a bet that will likely win/lose either way (and offers a little insurance if Baltimore goes 9-7/10-6 and misses the playoffs).

I am looking to make more future bets, which will be what I intend on focusing on the most this season.

Some others I am considering:

• St. Louis Over 7.5 wins
• Seattle Under 10.5 wins
• New Orleans Super Bowl odds at 20/1
• Jacksonville Over 5 wins
• Denver Under 11.5 wins
• Kansas City Over 7.5 wins
• Chicago Over 8.5 wins

I plan on narrowing these bets down a little after doing a little more schedule/injury research. I may also bet a couple of player props (i.e. rushing title winner).

I may take a shot on a few moderate division long-shots (Kansas City +570ish, StL +800, Carolina +475). In regards to this, I will be looking at early season schedule to see how likely odds are to shift one way or another on a weekly basis. Since 5dimes offers odds to win division on a weekly basis, you can likely get better odds if the team you think will win the division starts out with a loss or two, so if you can project this correctly, you can get yourself the best odds on the board.

I want the NFL to get here quick. Antsy to see how the Niners do in their first full year with Kaepernick. I am slightly worried about the wide receiver depth, but not really worried about the talent that Kaepernick possesses. I believe every team in the division improved, so no easy outs (I think Arians & Arizona will take a couple games in the division slate of games). 

The rambling has started, so it's time for me to call it a night. I will let y'all know about my finalized futures.

Peace.

Bets Made (updated 9/2/13):

Cincy to win AFC North (+235 - 7/28/13): 1.1 units to win 2.82 units
Cincy to win Super Bowl (30/1 - 8/16/13): 0.6 units to win 18 units
Baltimore NOT making playoffs (-105 - 8/26/13): 1.68 units to win 1.6 units
Dez Bryant leads league in receiving yards (+800 - 8/29/13): 0.9 units to win 7.2 units
Tampa Bay Under 7.5 wins (+125 - 9/2/13): 1.1 units to win 1.5 units
Carolina Over 7 wins/Cleveland Over 6 wins parlay (~+120 9/2/13): 1.6 units to win ~1.91 units

NFL Playoff Paralysis by Analysis: New Playoff Teams & Fun Playoff Facts

Your team not make the NFL playoffs last year? If history is any indication (unless you're a Raiders fan), chances are that they're not that far away from making the January Madness.

Since the Cleveland Browns rejoined the league in 2002 and the NFL went to 4 divisions in each conference, there has been an average of just over 6 new teams in the playoffs from year-to-year (which represents a 50% change from one postseason to the next).

Last year featured the smallest change from one year to the next in the 32-team era (there were only four new teams in the playoffs compared to 2011), including the exact same division winners and only one change in the AFC (the Colts taking the Steelers spot).

So out of these 20 teams who didn't make the playoffs last year, who are the mostly likely (in my eyes) to be playing into January?

No Chance (6): Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets
Sleepers (8): Cleveland, Kansas City, San Diego, Miami, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Decent Shot (2): Detroit, Dallas
Best Chance (4): Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, New Orleans

With how wide open the AFC seems this year, with Baltimore's leadership core depleted and New England losing its top 5 receivers by yardage from 2012, it looks as though that will be the conference that has the best chance to see some new blood in the playoffs (I could see a few of the AFC sleepers I mentioned in the playoffs). Even though I have Pittsburgh out of my playoff bracket for 2013, I mention them as Best Chance mainly off of their recent history to bounce back from a non-playoff season.

So if there's six new teams in the playoffs this year, who are the most likely teams that will be on the outside of the January side of football?

My best guesses:

1. Baltimore (will miss leadership on defense as well as some of their key offensive weapons - Pitta/Boldin helped make Flacco a rich man and will both be missed)
2. Indy (they were the first 11-5 team ever to make the playoffs while allowing more points than they scored - regression to 6 or 7 wins is my projection).
3. Washington (with how competitive the NFC East is and the RG3 health questions entering 2013, I don't see them successfully defending their division crown)
4. Minnesota (Christian Ponder is going to miss Percy Harvin (and Greg Jennings is going to miss Aaron Rodgers), and I don't see how AP can carry this team to a playoff run like he did last year. Plus, like the NFC East, the NFC Central is strong top-to-bottom)
5. Atlanta (this is more of a hunch than based in concrete data. Atlanta destroyed the division last year, but I think New Orleans w/ Sean Payton, Carolina w/ their stud Cam, and Tampa's big moves, like acquiring Revis Island, will likely lead to a few more losses for the Falcons this year)
6. Green Bay (this certainly isn't a reflection of their QB, but more their offensive line, which could get Rodgers killed this year, and their defense, which got shredded in their playoff loss to the 49ers)

New England could get added to this list if Brady isn't able to establish good connections with his new receivers. I also wouldn't be shocked if there was some drop off with Seattle, who seem to be a trendy Super Bowl pick.

Fun Division Facts

There's a few nuggets that I'd like to share in my research and breakdown of the division winners in the 32-team NFL era (2002-current):

• New England and Indianapolis are the only teams to win five straight division titles in this era, each accomplishing their respective feats from 2003-2007. Seattle (2004-2007) and SD (2006-2009) are the only other teams to have a run of four straight division titles.
• The NFC South, which is among four divisions during this time to see all four of its teams win at least one division crown, has yet to have a reigning division title team repeat the next year. This does not bode well for Atlanta.
• In addition to the above fact, the NFC South is the most represented division to make the big game, with a total of three different teams making a Super Bowl (2002 TB, 2003 Carolina, 2009 New Orleans). NFC West also has this distinction (Seattle in 2005, Arizona in 2008, San Fran in 2012).
• Of the 10 teams who have won a Super Bowl between 2003 and 2012, only three of these teams did not make the playoffs the previous year (NE in 2003, NO in 2009, and NYG in 2011)
• Of the 10 Super Bowl losers during this same time, only Carolina (2003), Arizona (2008) and Pittsburgh (2010) failed to make the playoffs the year before.
• Of the 10 Super Bowl winners between 2002 and 2011, three missed the playoffs the following year (Tampa in 2003, Pittsburgh in 2006, NYG in 2012). I am projecting that Baltimore becomes the fourth.
• Of the 10 Super Bowl losers between 2002 and 2011, half of them missed the playoffs the following year (Oakland in 2003, Carolina in 2004, Philly in 2005, Chicago in 2007, New England in 2008).
• 23 of the 32 franchises have made the playoffs at least once in the past four postseasons. The casualties? Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Carolina, Tampa Bay, St. Louis.
• Of these 23, 17 teams (or over half the league) has won at least one playoff game. Baltimore is the only team that has won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years.

Squares Root (For Teams Not Their Own)

Root root root for the home team

If they don't win, just root for someone else...

-Author Unknown

Ok, maybe that author is me. Could be, I don't know.

Anywho, the topic that's on my mind a week before the Super Bowl isn't so much about the game as it is about the people who watch the game.

You. Me. Your Mom (yeah, she watches it). Even your lady friends who can only name one player on each team, and that's because she's in love with one of them (Kaepernick) and thinks the other guy got away with murder over a decade ago (Ray Lewis - btw, the case against him was so flawed, but people continue to speak of this "murder" as truth).

When these people go to parties, you'll be hard-pressed to find someone staying completely neutral. Which is strange, since more than likely, his or her favorite team is looonnnnnnnnnng gone from the Super Bowl. 

And yes, I'm guilty of this too, although my team rooting interest is almost always (as in 100% of the time) tied together with whoever I bet on. If you're betting on a game and have a rooting angle, I get it. If one of the teams is a division rival of yours, I get that, too. For example, no way should Bears fans be rooting for the Packers in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, and vice versa years before that.

However, when people have no reason to root for or against any team, they will still find some kind of angle to do just that. Out of thin air, they'll find a reason. For this Super Bowl, I've already found a few people who have been bitching about Colin Kaepernick. Yes, he does come off as a douchebag, and yes, he did trademark the word Kaepernicking. But if any of us were in the same spot and our last names got famous, we'd be doing the same thing. After all, it's better to make money off of your name than have someone else do it. Also, some of the hate is rooted in the common ingredient of hate - jealousy.

On the other side, I know some folks might be rooting against the Ravens because "Ray Lewis got away with murder" (blah, blah, blah...find something truthful to hate guys for). At the end of the day, people who aren't already fans of the teams or don't have any monetary interest on either team will find a way to root for or against the Niners or the Ravens. 

Is it human nature? Maybe. I feel like we do this with things other than sports as well. With TV shows and movies that we watch, we root for who we perceive to be the good guys and wish ill thoughts and fates for the bad guys.

Word of warning to those casually rooting for the Ravens (or against the Niners) who may be in my presence on February 3rd: I may curse at you, but only because I'm rooting for the Niners. Like, for real rooting for them.

And also my squares.

2013 AFC/NFC Divisional Game Analysis and a Quick Look at Next Weekend

As I expected, this weekend of football (aside from the last game) was a solid display of NFL action. Shockingly, I got all 4 of the winners right.

Random thoughts from the weekend:

1. Peyton Manning can't be completely blamed for the Broncos' double overtime loss to the Ravens (John Fox's ultra-conservative approach to the end of the game with 2 timeouts and 30+ seconds definitely didn't make sense), but with this being the eighth time one of his teams has lost in its first playoff game in 12 postseason appearances, he will probably take a good chunk of the blame. His interceptions sure didn't help, but there's no excuse for Baltimore being able to throw a bomb like that with less than a minute left to tie up the game. For Jacoby Jones to get behind the secondary that easily puzzles me. Don't get me wrong, Flacco made a hell of a throw. But with the kind of arm Flacco has, there has to be better deep coverage than that. Because of that throw, Denver goes home and Baltimore advances.
2. Enough of the "Is Joe Flacco Elite?" crap on TV. Can't we just call him a damn good quarterback that has the ability to lead his team to playoff glory? His playoff record (7-4, including 5-4 on the road) shows what he is capable of, and if it wasn't for Lee Evans' drop last year, he'd be going after his second straight Super Bowl appearance. In the past, Flacco needed the defense to carry him to victory. Now, it's Joe Cool that's doing the heavy lifting, as evidenced by his 331 yards and 3 TDs (no interceptions). That puts his postseason numbers for this year at 613 yards, 5 TDs and no picks. Not bad. Elite? Who cares. There's no need to put a label on the guy or anyone for that matter. Leave that to the losers at ESPN that need to debate everything up to and including whether Jay Cutler is to blame for RG3's injury.
3. Colin Kaepernick showed exactly why Jim Harbaugh stuck with the Nevada quarterback after he replaced Alex Smith due to a concussion in the middle of the season. After throwing a pick-6 on the Niners first possession, Kaepernick settled into the game quite nicely, totaling a mind-blowing 444 yards (including an NFL-record for QBs - 181 rushing yards) and four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing). As a Niners fan, I am delighted with the change in QB and that Harbaugh stuck with this decision despite how Alex Smith started the year. It took some balls, and Harbaugh has a big pair of them.
4. One of the key points I thought would help the Niners win on Saturday was holding onto the ball for a significant time edge over the Packers, which they did. The Niners held the ball for almost a 2/1 advantage in time, helped greatly by the team's effectiveness on the ground (43 carries, 323 yards). If the Niners can maintain this offensive efficiency, a sixth Lombardi trophy is likely in their future.
5. The Falcons made things way more interesting than they needed to be. After blowing a 20 point lead, Atlanta was led down the field by Matt Ryan, with Matt Bryant booting home a 49-yard kick with 13 seconds left. What was most baffling was the terrible coaching decisions made by Mike Smith in the second half. Some of the bad decisions that nearly cost the Falcons a chance of advancing: (a) not going for 2 when up 19 late in the third quarter. At this point in the game, there's no reason not to go for 2 to go up 21. And no, this isn't hindsight - it's math. Whether you're up by 19 or 21, the opposing team will be going after three touchdowns, especially that late in the game; (b) calling a timeout with 13 seconds left instead of letting the time slip to 3 seconds to make the field goal the final play of the game & (c) having Matt Bryant essentially kick an onside kick that gave Russell Wilson a chance at a Hail Mary attempt. I don't watch the Falcons enough to know if Mike Smith always coaches like this, but I have to believe that the Niners have a huge coaching advantage entering the NFC Championship game. Perhaps that's why the line went from 2 to 3.5 in no time.
6. Despite the furious fourth quarter comeback, the Seahawks fell short, but that doesn't deter any from what Russell Wilson was able to accomplish this season. Despite being drafted in the third round by a team who just shelled out tens of millions on a QB in the offseason, Wilson was able to earn the starting role in the preseason. In the year of the rookie QB, Wilson led his team further than any of them. It's going to be fun watching him in the next decade as the Niners scheme to stop the speedster slinger.
7. The Patriots took care of business, as expected. Tom Brady did his best Tom Brady impression (25-40, 344 yards, 3 TDs) in the victory. Outside of the opening kick of the game, which allowed the Texans to get a brief 3-0 lead, the Patriots controlled this game throughout. The score (41-28) was helped by a couple of fourth quarter Texans touchdowns, but it didn't feel that close. The Patriots' win sets the stage for a rematch of the AFC Championship last year. I believe it will be just as close as last year.
8. After watching the Texans down the stretch and in their brief playoff appearance, I was left wondering: is this as good as the Texans will be? As my man Bomani Jones said, Matt Schaub is a good QB - not great, not terrible, but good - the epitome of good. I don't see Gary Kubiak ever out-coaching the likes of Belichick in situations like this. They may be stuck in the "good, but not great" category for an indefinite time, until they get either a new coach, a new QB, or both.

Championship Games

I've had a few hours now to soak in the championship games. Before I go into that, I'd like to bring up some stats I found relating to the history of these conference championship games:

• This is the first year since 1995 where there were three teams who made the championship game from the previous year. Baltimore, New England and San Francisco helped break that streak.
• There's never been an instance in the Super Bowl era where all 4 teams in AFC/NFC Championship games made it back-to-back years.
• Between 1970 and 1999 (the dynasty era of football), there were only three instances of no teams in either conference making the game in back-to-back years. Since 2000 (14 seasons), there have been seven times where the conference games from the previous year were filled with all new teams compared to the year before.
• San Francisco is the first NFC team to make it to consecutive championship games since the Eagles did it 2002-2005. They are also battling Atlanta next weekend as one of them will be looking to become the 11th different NFC team in the past 12 years to make the Super Bowl. That leaves the loser, Detroit, Minnesota, Washington & Dallas as the only NFC teams not to make the Super Bowl in that time.
• The last five NFC Championship games have been decided by 7 points or less, including three overtime games. I wouldn't be surprised if this year's game becomes the sixth one in a row.

Atlanta/San Francisco - These teams advanced to this round in opposite ways - San Fran with a slow start that was followed by a strong closing three quarters, with Atlanta struggling to the finish line in its narrow victory. A couple of questions on my mind as the game approaches:

1. Will Kaepernick be able to build off of his first playoff game? It's hard to get much better than he showed.
2. How much of a factor will the crowd be? Kaepernick did well in some hostile environments (New Orleans, New England) but not so well in the land of the 12th Man (Seattle). If Atlanta gets really loud, I'm wondering how Kaep will be able to handle the offense. An early lead is important.
3. Is it just me, or does the Niners defense not seem the same as it did at the beginning of the year? There have been a few injuries on defense, notably Justin Smith with a partially torn triceps. I know the quality of opponent was high in the second half of the year (road games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson stick out in mind), but the high scores of these games was unusual to say the least. It's nice to know we can win high scoring games, because this NFC Championship game might be a barnburner.

With all of that being said, I see the Niners advancing to their sixth Super Bowl next week. Preliminary prediction is 34-27.

New England/Baltimore - I see this game playing out a lot like their AFC Championship tilt last year (and also their regular season match-up this year). It seems ridiculous that the Ravens are 9-point underdogs when earlier this year, they were 2.5 point favorites against the Patriots. I see this being a higher scoring game - Baltimore's defense is for once being carried by the offense. I see the Patriots squeezing out a 30-27 victory to advance to their second Super Bowl in a row (and sixth in the past 12 years).

I Spy(Gate) Another Championship: NFL Playoff Preview & A Look Back at My Preseason Picks

Playoffs are here - I'd say there were some mild surprises in Week 17.

Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.

And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.

A look back at my predictions:

As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.

I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).

To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.

My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det

Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.

Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.


2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)

Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:

AFC:

Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)

NFC:

Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)

Round 1:

Game by game

Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20

Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.

Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.

Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.

If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.

AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing

NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.

AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)

Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta

Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.

I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.

Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.

If I Ain't Broke, I'm Not Fixing It (Week 9 NFL)

Looks like this little system for the NFL is having some short term luck for me.

Last week's bets went 7-5, would have been much better if I made bets strictly along the lines of the system.

In short, as I mentioned last week, this system is built where you end up betting against teams who have either (a) won two games in a row against the spread by a significant margin - thus creating an inflated line that you can gain value betting the other team or (b) won 3 straight games against the spread. We'll call these guys Fade Material - since that's exactly what you'll want to do in that next game.

The latter (b) has been a cash cow, with teams going 1-10 in their fourth game if they've covered against the spread three in a row (Houston is the only team to cover 4 games in a row). I guess to figure out (a), you'd have to define what a significant amount is against the spread - I'd say exceeding the spread by an average of 14 points or more. Using this number, teams have gone 2-9 against the spread if they've covered their previous two games by an average of 14+ points. The Bears and Vikings are the only teams to record against the spread wins in these scenarios, with both teams losing their following game.

The other half of the system is the opposite (The Biggest Losers) - betting on teams who have had (a) multiple losses against the spread by a significant margin or (b) lost 3 straight games against the spread. In the case of (b), teams are 5-2-2 in that fourth game (Baltimore is the only team this year w/ a 5-game losing streak ATS). And using the same significant margin idea (2 losses in a row against the spread by an average of 14+), these teams bounce back to the tune of a 7-2 record.

Fade Material for Week 9

(a) Won two games in a row ATS by avg of 14+ - None, although Denver (Average ATS win of 13) is close and I'll be betting against them anyways (see below).

(b) Won three straight ATS - Detroit....Bet Jacksonville +4 (hard to do, I know)

Biggest Loser Material for Week 9

(a) Lost two game in a row by avg of 14+ - Unfortunately, no one fits this bill either. Kansas City did (lost previous two by average of 17 per game), but San Diego's streak (lost three straight) took precedence. Kansas City will be a bet next week.

(b) Lost three straight ATS - Cincy (+3.5), Baltimore (-3.5), SD -7 (won Thursday).

We'll see how this goes, but I'm optimistic that this system at least has some common sense behind it. It goes off the premises that people hate to bet teams that have looked like crap the past couple weeks (likely means they've lost ATS in those games), which gives that team a little bit more value in the next game or two. Likewise, if a team is playing so well that it looks like it can't lose, gamblers fall in love with that team and want to keep betting them (riding out the streak), thus making the point spread on them in the following week or two a little inflated, giving value to their opponent.

For this week's bets:

Fool's Gold (6-5 for the year)

Denver -3.5 at Cincy - Christ, how could anyone bet against Peyton Manning? Dude has been money this year, much better than anyone could have thought coming off of his 97th neck surgery in the past 2-3 years (number may be exaggerated). They're coming off a pair of impressive victories (huge 2nd half comeback against San Diego and a drubbing of New Orleans on Sunday Night Football). Meanwhile, Cincy has lost three straight overall (and against the spread, as you read above). They had a first quarter lead in all of those games, only to fail to win any of them. I expect them to play with a sense of desperation as they look to avoid falling completely out of the AFC North with a beat-up Ravens and potentially over-rated Steelers squad ahead of them (each playing road games). I think the Bengals will surprise the Broncos and take this game, but just to be safe, I'll take Cincy +3.5 (may bet the ML as well).

Other Bets: Baltimore -3.5, Jax +4, Dal +4

Considering: Car +3.5, Oak -1.5, Min +4

NCAA Outlook:

Finally had a decent Saturday. College ain't really my cup of tea this year, so tread lightly on following these.

Bets: California -4 (fading the major results of last week - Cal's big loss and Wash's impressive win against previously unbeaten Oregon St), Ariz State +4 (Oregon St will be proven a phony), OK State +8.5 (K State will be challenged), Iowa State +12.5 (let down for Oklahoma), Pitt +16.5 (let down for ND)

Considering: WV -5 & their Over (68), Florida -17

Check my Twitter for updated bets - these are subject to change.

Have a good weekend everyone, and good luck w/ your fantasy leagues/wagers and all that other crap.

A Ray to Remember: Ray Lewis and a Reflection on My Evolution Watching Football

Can you imagine the NFL without Ray Lewis? Well, you may not need to imagine much longer. In fact, it may be a reality.

Ray - It Ain't So

Lewis left yesterday's game against the Cowboys with a torn tricep, leaving his season (and career) in serious doubt.

I don't know about you, but whenever he is done (if it is a fact that he is done now), I will definitely miss watching games and highlights featuring Lewis, probably the best and most feared linebacker that I've grown up watching.

I thought about it earlier today, and the thought simply blew my mind. Ray Lewis, part of the original Baltimore Ravens squad in 1996, started in the league when I was in middle school. Since then, I've gotten two college degrees (neither of which I've used to their fullest as of yet - that's another story), had three dogs come and/or go in my life, stood up in four weddings, among plenty of other random crap that I'm sure I could come up with.

The point - Ray Lewis has been a staple in my football watching lifetime. Back when he joined the league was around the time I would have a weekly pick'em pool with me, my dad and two neighbors down the street.

When I got my first job at Jewel and met many people who would become my best friends, that's when the confidence pools started, where you pick each game and then rank them based on how confident you are in them winning.

As a little bit of cash flowed in came the online betting - which I still do to this day. Add in fantasy football, my constant blogging about football and my recent introduction to DirecTV, and I've experienced just about every aspect of football in the past 16.5 years aside from playing it competitively.

All the while, Ray Lewis developed into and maintained elite status as the best linebacker in the league. My experiences with football-related items have evolved, from picking for or against Baltimore in a fun pool with my neighbors as a teenager to worrying about whether I should start my running back against his defense in fantasy football - normally I wouldn't unless I had no other options.

Some might remember him negatively for the obstruction of justice charge involving a double murder that occurred at a Super Bowl party in 2000, a year before he would go on to win Super Bowl MVP in the Ravens' first-ever franchise title. While I can't blame people for holding that against him, since he was acquitted of the most serious of charges, I won't hark too much on that memory of him when thinking back on his career.

When I think of Ray Lewis, I'll think of the scariest guy to step on the field. I never thought someone could look scary in purple - I was wrong.

I hope this isn't the end of his career. No one matched his energy - from his rookie year as a 21-year old kid to a 37-year old grizzled vet. If it is the end of his career, a part of my childhood NFL experiences watching the game has gone with him.