9/30/2013

Reflecting on an old Buddy's Passing: Two Years Later

Time passes. Memories remain, even if the physical being does not.

Two years flies fast

Two years ago at the beginning of October, my family and I took our old dog Buddy for his last ride. The short six-minute car trip to the vet seemed like it lasted only six seconds, which especially sucked, given the nature of the drive and the empty car we came home with after a trip to the crematory where we had our last sights of his lifeless body.

I remember coming home to the emptier house, and while Pixie (her younger compadre) was not fully aware of what happened, you have to sense that she knew something was not right when we came back and her brother wasn't with us. The first time we let her outside to go to the bathroom, Pixie looked back at the door, as she usually followed her hobbling brother down the stairs - antagonizing him all the way down, biting his back legs as if she were in the wild herding sheep.

But this time, her brother was no longer there. At that moment, I knew she knew something was missing and terribly wrong. It was at that moment, I balled my eyes out (well, for about the 30th time that day anyways, but the first time since we got home from putting the old boy down).

I feel awful that my sister, who was living in Tennessee at the time, was not able to say good-bye to him, although I felt a little better knowing that anytime she came to visit, in the event something like this were to happen, she told me she would say her goodbyes, just in case.

On this particular day, I was less than two weeks into my relationship with Jen. I was not aware at the time, but earlier in the week was the first and only time that Jen would get to meet the stinky dog - also happened to be the first time she met my mom and dad - thanks for sticking all that out Jen!

As the afternoon developed that day, I was wondering if I would stick with my original Saturday evening plan of meeting with Jen and her friends at the bar many of them like to go to right next to their work, as Saturday at 5pm begins their weekends. I don't remember if I justified it this way when I made my ultimate decision of spending the night over at Jen's old place, but I don't know how well I would have done with spending the night in my old basement dwellings that night without my best friend laying right next to the bed, waiting for me to get up so he could hobble up the stairs with me to officially start the day.

Ultimately, I was glad I did go out and try getting away from the two tons of weight that the day had put on my emotional back. I was able to meet some of Jen's friends for the first time. I do remember telling some of them that I wish I had met them on a better day than this and that I may not be myself, but I doubt I needed to explain that given what happened.

I forgot exactly where me and Jen went out to dinner that night (I know it was close to Belmont and Sheffield), but I know it felt good to share my emotions with my new love as my old love had passed. In a brand new relationship, a moment like this can go a long way in determining what the future holds. Sharing my thoughts and enjoying dinner with Jen was as perfect of an end to my night as there could be to such an imperfect day.

As far as the two years that have passed, I wish I could say I've had Buddy in mind every day - because I haven't. But every now and then, when I walk into my office area (or what was planned to be my office area) and see the wallet-sized pictures I have of Buddy and Pixie from when my mom got them professional pictures, I occasionally tear up and always smile when seeing how excited Buddy was for his picture (and how timid and frightened his normally eccentric sister was).

It has been a while since I looked at the blog I wrote for him 18 hours preceding his passing. For those of you who haven't read it or those who would like to read it again, here it is: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2011/10/some-buddy-to-love-eulogy-to-this-mans.html. The love me and my family had for him has never died. I'd like to think if anything, the love we had for him is reflected in new loves in our lives: Jen, my nephew Brayden, and anyone else who has joined our lives in the past 2 years.

As the years go by, I'll likely remember October 1st just as well as any other important day of my life, including a later date in October (the 24th was when we put the first dog in my life down when I was 13). The big difference between the two dogs was that I didn't think there was any way in hell of a dog impacting my life the way my old dog Crimmy did. Also, I have full memory of Buddy's entire life, while Crimmy preceded me by a few years.

In both cases, I will always have a fond memory of my childhood and young adulthood living the first 28 years of my life with these two dogs. As I have developed a strong relationship with Jen's two cats (who are now "our cats" in my eyes), I hope to continue to have pets make such a strong impact on my life as they already have.

9/28/2013

MLB Predictions: A Look Back at the Bad (and some Good) Predictions from Spring Training

A Look Back at My 2013 Predictions

I'm always one to make sure I hold myself accountable for predictions - both good and bad - when it comes to offering them before a season starts. Like many of you, I tend to back up my opinion with cash money.

Maybe like many of you (perhaps some of you), I struggled throughout the 2013 season. I meant to keep accurate records of everything, but after a while of just sucking too much, too hard (the stuff they won't show on Cinemax), I just stopped keeping track of my daily progress.

One thing I can easily keep track of are the futures bets that I made (team wins, division winners, World Series champ bets). And much like my daily bets, success was hard to find. I made the following bets before and during the season:

Win Props
  • Tampa Bay Over 86 (135 to win 100) - WIN
  • Cleveland Over 77.5 (135 to win 100) - WIN
  • Toronto Under 89 (105 to win 100) - WIN
  • Houston Over 59.5 (100 to win 105) - LOSS
  • San Diego Over 74.5 (100 to win 115)- WIN
Division Props
  • Tampa to win AL East +255 (40 to win 108) - LOSS
  • Philly to win NL East +330 (40 to win 132) - LOSS
  • Cleveland to win AL Central +900 (15 to win 135) - LOSS
  • Cleveland to win AL Central (Made few weeks into season) +1450 (15 to win 217.50) - LOSS
  • San Diego to win NL West (Made in June) +3300 (15 to win 495) - LOSS
World Series Props
  • Tampa to win WS +1500 (30 to win 450) - PENDING
  • San Diego to win WS (bet made in June) +25000 (15 to win 3750) - LOSS 

Player Props
  • Jay Bruce Most HRs in MLB +1900 (25 to win 475) - LOSS
  • Yoenis Cespedes Most HRs in MLB +5000 (15 to win 750) - LOSS


As you can see, not much has gone right outside of my over/under bets for season wins (I went 4-1 there).

The link I introduced at the beginning highlights some of my thoughts before the season on things I know to be true about MLB. Going point-by-point:

1. Re: Spending big does not equal success. I was half right on the teams mentioned in this point. While the Dodgers' big spending eventually paid off in a big way, the Blue Jays never really got going this year. The big names signed and traded for have led to no improvement in the quality of the team (last year Toronto was 73-89; w/ two games left in 2013, they are 73-87).

2. Re: Due for some surprise teams. Again, I was half right here. I did predict Cleveland as a wild card team that would finish about 5-6 games behind Detroit (at the moment, 3 back, but obviously division is clinched). While not a wild card team just yet, I applaud myself for getting this pretty damn close at the very least. I missed on my other surprise team (San Diego), who looked like they may contend after having one of the best stretches in the MLB during June. However, once they realized they were San Diego (and once Los Angeles got their shit together), the wheels fell off. Thankfully, they rebounded enough in September to win me my futures bet on them. Pittsburgh is the ultimate surprise from the NL.

3. Re: 2-3 new division winners. As you saw above on the division bets, I didn't do a good job of predicting the new division winners. The only division I even got right was Detroit, which was the biggest chalk in baseball. There were actually four new division winners, none of which I got right (Boston, St. Louis, Atlanta, Los Angeles). 

4. Re: Tampa will surprise as usual. The jury is still out on this. We will see if they make one of the two wild card spots (tied w/ Cleveland and one ahead of Texas). With their solid pitching, I still believe they can win the World Series if they are able to extend their season into October.


Revised MLB Predictions (w/ 2 games left)

WC round
Pitt over Cincy; TB over Cle

Divisional Series Round
TB over Bos; Det over Oak
NL TBD: Whoever faces Atl over Atl; either LA over StL or StL over Pitt

League Championship Series: 
Det over TB; LA over StL or Pitt

World Series: Det over LA


Award Winners

AL MVP: Miggy
NL MVP: McCutchen
AL Cy: Scherzer
NL Cy: Kershaw (hey, I think I got one preseason pick right!)
AL Rookie of Year: Wil Myers (no true standouts in AL - Iglesias and Straily have a shot)
NL Rookie of Year:  Fernandez (Mia) (Puig had amazing start, but Fernandez dominated throughout entire season)

WS MVP: Victor Martinez

9/23/2013

Week 4 Picks Go Here

Week 4:

SF -3 (-110) - (2.2 to win 2.0)
SF/StL Over 43.5 (+103) - (0.5 to win 0.515)
SF/StL Over 46.5 (+143) - (0.5 to win 0.715)
NYG +4 - (1.1 to win 1.0)
Cle +4 - (1.22 to win 1.0)
Det -3 - (1.0 to win 1.02)
Hou +2 - (1.02 to win 1.0) & Hou ML (+113) (0.5 to win 0.565)
Cle/Cin Under 42 - (1.05 to win 1.0)
Phil +10 - (1.53 to win 1.5)
NE ML live-bet (+105) - (1.00 to win 1.05)
Mia/NO Over 48 (-109) - (1.09 to win 1.00)


Week 4 - 7-4, +2.955

*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 



YTD: (20-14,  +7.889)


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

9/17/2013

Week 3 Picks Go Here

Week 3
Mia -2 (-110) - (1.1 to win 1.0)
Cincy +2.5 (-110) - (1.1 to win 1.0) and ML (+123) - (0.5 to win 0.615)
Jax +18.5 (-110) - (1.1 to win 1.0)
Car +2 (-107) - (0.642 to win 0.6) and ML (+112) - (0.6 to win 0.672)
StL/Dal Over 47.5 (+107) - (1 to win 1.07)
Oak +14.5 (-105) - (1.575 to win 1.5)


(3-3, +0.212)


*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 




Week 2: (4-4, +0.582)
Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)
YTD: (13-10,  +4.934)


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

9/13/2013

Week 2 Picks Go Here

Week 2

KC -3 (-110) (1.1 to win 1.0)

NYG +4 (-110) (1.1 to win 1.0)
Car -3 (+100) (1.0 to win 1.0)
Mia +2 (-105) (0.63 to win 0.6) & ML (+117) (0.6 to win .702)
Balt/Cle Under 44 (-104) (1.56 to win 1.5)
StL/Atl Over 47.5 (-105) (1.05 to win 1)
SF +3 (-102) (1.02 to win 1) & ML (+147) (0.5 to win .735)
Cincy -6.5 (-104) (1.605 to win 1.5) 

(4-4, +0.582)

YTD: 10-7, +4.722



Week 1: (6-3, +4.14)




*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 

Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)

TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

9/09/2013

Risky Coach, Rewarded Fan: Why We Should Root for Chip Kelly to Succeed in NFL

Chip Kelly is about an hour away from making his coaching debut, and I couldn't be more excited.

As anyone who has watched college football knows, Kelly's Oregon squads have been some of the quickest (in both speed of the players and the plays themselves) in the country. Last year, Oregon averaged 2.89 plays per minute of possession, which ranked 8th in the country.

Not only was their pace quick, but so has their ability to score. Here's a breakdown of Kelly's teams and where they have ranked in various categories (all stats from ESPN.com rankings except where noted):




Points/game Rank
2009 36.1 8 of 120
2010 46.8 1 of 120
2011 46.1 3 of 120 (Hou/Ok St)
2012 49.6 2 of 124 (La Tech)

Fourth Downs
Made Made Rank Attempted Attempt Rank
2009 15 T9 of 120 22 T18 of 120
2010 22 T1 of 120 (G Tech) 32 2 of 120 (G Tech)
2011 14 T15 of 120 31 T4 of 120
2012 20 T7 of 124 31 11 of 124




The fourth-down statistics are mentioned as a way to show that he may be the type to take more calculated risks than the average coach. It will be interesting to see if this side of Kelly is brought to the NFL, as there are universally accepted theories within coaching circles as to avoiding risk when it's not necessary (i.e. going for a 4th down in a certain situation, like Bill Belichick against Indianapolis years ago or when Barry Switzer did it as a Cowboys coach - both failed in late-game situations deep inside their own territory and got absolutely ripped by national media for it). I maintain that there are too many times where coaches play "not to lose the game" as opposed to "playing to win the game" based on worries of media scrutiny and job security if the risks end up failing.

Plays/game Rank
2009 69.1 61 of 120
2010 78 7 of 120
2011 74.1 33 of 120
2012 82.8 11 of 124
(Stats from teamrankings.com)



Plays per point
2009 1.91
2010 1.67
2011 1.61
2012 1.67

Why do I mention all of these statistics? It's to give you an idea of the level of excitement that Chip Kelly can bring to a team. 

I know that college and NFL are two totally different games, but remember one thing: the NFL steals from college football when it comes to offense designs. Current trendy offensive formations (spread offense, read option, pistol) have all come from college football. And not only that, but Chip Kelly's influence was already in the NFL before he was, as Belichick has incorporated the fast-paced offense that Kelly efficiently executed thanks to discussions with Kelly. There may be teams who ran offenses faster in college, but no one ran them more efficiently than Kelly did. While I don't have the rankings or specific stats on how efficient these quick offenses are (in terms of plays per point -PPP or points per minute of possession - PPMoP), I do believe that Oregon's rankings the last three years of the Kelly era in terms of PPP or PPMoP would have to be in the top 3 or 4 of the nation each year.

If Chip Kelly succeeds in the NFL, here's a few things we will see change:

  1. Higher Vegas Point Totals  - Right now, a high listed point total for an NFL game as Vegas sets lines is in the mid 50s. If Kelly is able to efficiently run a quick offense, you may see games involving the Eagles approaching the low-to-mid 60s (college-like).
  2. Rejoicing Fantasy Owners - You will see a lot more Philadelphia Eagles drafted than normal in a fantasy football draft, as smart owners will salivate at the prospect of owning guys who will potentially play in 10-15 more snaps than the average offensive player on other teams.
  3. Copycats - As with anything that works efficiently for one team, you will see teams speed up their offenses in an effort to take advantage of defenses who may not always have the right personnel on the field for certain formations and are likely to get tired quicker. While not evident in their 28-2 drubbing to the Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars have plans to run a quicker offense than in year's past, as noted to C.D. Carter in an XN Sports Interview w/ Maurice Jones-Drew during the preseason. It could be argued that his effect on the NFL is already here, based on the fact that MJD mentions that the Jaguars want to run more plays than the Patriots, who already have the Kelly stamp on them.
  4. Softening on the Risk-Adverse Approach by Coaches - As I discussed in the fourth-down statistics portion of this article, one thing that is hard for NFL coaches (or coaches in many leagues for that matter) to do is to take risks that have been deemed unnecessary by the rank-and-file. If Kelly can establish a precedent where going for two-point conversions at weird points in a game (Oregon attempted 18 two-point conversions on their first touchdown of a game in Kelly's four years, converting 15) or taking chances on fourth-and-short more than the average coach, you may see more coaches take chances that they otherwise wouldn't have. Then again, this would likely depend on how secure a coach feels in his current role and whether or not he could survive the media and public onslaught.

Here's to hoping that Kelly succeeds, as I think the NFL (as with anything in life) needs its feathers ruffled every so often to improve its product even more.

9/06/2013

These Things, I Know: NFL Thoughts Entering Week 1

Here are some random thoughts about the NFL that I know to be true heading into the 2013 season:

  1. People have already made up their minds on Jay Cutler. No level of success this year outside of a Super Bowl victory will be good enough for the people that already hate him (and even then, there will be a good share of detractors), mainly for non-football reasons - i.e. his personality and demeanor turn people off. My favorite thing about sports is how everyone becomes a certified psychologist and body language expert, as if something that a television presents to you without context (a guy sitting on the bench) is a good way to read a person's true thoughts or feelings.

    Watch the reaction of Cutler after throwing an interception or getting off the field after a bad drive, and it's no different than when a top quarterback reams out his offensive line for missing a block or a receiver running the wrong pattern. But since it's a guy that hasn't succeeded in the league, the general reaction to Cutler's reaction is one of disgust. People call him petulant, a whiner, mopey, basically any adjective in the family of "immature guy who looks like he doesn't care".

    I really hope he succeeds this year and shoves it in the face of the fans who hate him and clearly yearn for the days of Johnathan Quinn or Henry Burris behind center.
  2. All of the above, change a few adjectives and names around, applies to Tony Romo.
  3. You can't say anything bad about Peyton Manning, not even his arm strength. Plus he makes funny commercials, furthering his positive image. Just makes me wonder how he would be perceived had he not had the pleasure of winning his only Super Bowl against the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears. Winning just one Super Bowl changes public perception on you forever.
  4. Some people should not be playing in fantasy football leagues.

    Just caught something on NFL Network about a Monte Ball tweet posted after his teammate Peyton Manning shredded the Ravens in a 49-24 rout of the defending champs.

  5. Here are some tweets I pulled up from people addressing Monte directly:



Anywho, onto the traditional picks for the year

Denver covered the -7 last night, so for NFL, I am 1-0, +1.1. More winning hopefully in the books.

Week 1 Picks I like:

Cle -1 vs. Mia
SF -4.5 vs. GB
Oak +10.5 at Indy
Dal -3 vs. NYG

Some I'm considering: NYJ +3.5 vs. TB; Ten +7 at Pitt