B-Bo's MLB Preview - 2013

Note: I've changed my mind on a few of my teams since my teams who will surprise blog from last month.

There's a few things I've learned about baseball over the years.

1. Teams that spend the most haven't been winning the most - Last year, the Angels went all-in with huge contracts for Albert Pujols & C.J. Wilson, but failed to make the playoffs. The Marlins did the same, signing Jose Reyes to a huge deal and also spent some nice dough on Mark Buehrle & Heath Bell, only to eventually trade all of the following as well as just about every good Marlins player not named Giancarlo Stanton between July and November. And look at what all that spending has done for the Yankees since 2001 - only one championship.
   
   So for everyone to go all-in on the other LA team as a sexy World Series pick is presumptuous. Yes, they have bolstered their squad with some nice moves like Greinke. Kershaw and Greinke in a short series will be a tough order, but can Greinke stay healthy? He has inflammation in his right elbow (yes, his pitching arm) - so he is a risky pick for fantasy baseball owners in my opinion. The lineup will be stacked once Hanley Ramirez is healthy (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley join Matt Kemp to form a formidable punch).
   
   The Dodgers may make the playoffs, but spending big lately hasn't equated to winning it all, or even making the playoffs as illustrated by some of the examples above
   
   The same goes for the Blue Jays, who seemingly traded for an All-Star team with all the players they picked up from the Marlins. I'm more weary of the Jays than the Dodgers though. Based on career splits, I don't think Dickey and Encarnacion will come close to matching their 2012 output. Toronto should be better than last year, but I'm not ready to crown them division champs this year.
2. We're always due for a couple surprise teams to be in playoff contention the first half of the year, with likely one of them to fade and the other to continue surprising and coming close to or even making the playoffs.  Last year's examples were the New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles, the former fading fast in the second half of the year thanks to a shaky bullpen, while the O's found a way to win just about every single close game en route to winning one of the two wild card berths, even having a chance to win the AL East going into the final day of the regular season - something no one could see coming.
   
   I'll make a couple predictions on the teams who will fit this bill this season: Cleveland Indians and San Diego Padres. The former is in probably the weakest division in baseball - I say the Indians will finish within 5-6 games of the Tigers and be close to a wild card berth (hell, I'll put them in my playoffs). The Padres will be my pick to start out decent (carrying over from their somewhat strong finish to end the year - 42-33 record after the All-Star break) and then fade to around .500.
3. There's usually about 2 or 3 different division winners from one year to the next. And that's what I expect this year. I expect Cincinnati, San Francisco and Detroit to repeat as division championships, with the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies to overtake their divisions.
4. The Tampa Bay Rays will surprise as usual. Including their World Series appearance in 2008, the Rays have quietly won 3 of 5 AL East titles in a division that includes the presumably infinite payrolls of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Their worst season in this stretch is an 84 win season in 2009.
   
   So as they've done many times since then, they've unloaded some of their veteran payroll, trading James Shields and B.J. Upton in separate deals, getting back some highly regarded prospects from the Royals and Braves.
   
   Despite trading these guys, I believe the Rays will win their 4th division title in 6 years. Yes - the Blue Jays outspent them. And yes - seemingly every one of the Yankees infield makes more individually than the Rays do as a team. But Joe Maddon and his boys seem to get it done - a great pitchers park with great pitchers is hard to beat. I'm riding the Rays to the 2013 World Series.
   
   The oddsmakers have the Blue Jays, then the Yankees, as more likely to win the AL East. Don't do it - bet the Rays.

I've already written my thoughts on the White Sox. Just click the link before this sentence to read about my disappointing prognosis.

Now that I've teased some of my predictions, here are the rest of them, by division. Playoff teams are bolded:

AL East		AL Central		AL West
Tampa Bay	90-72	Detroit	94-68	LA Angels	93-69
Toronto	86-76	Cleveland	88-74	Oakland	89-73
New York	83-79	Kansas City	80-82	Texas	87-75
Boston	79-83	Chicago	76-86	Seattle	73-89
Baltimore	74-88	Minnesota	68-94	Houston	65-97

NL East		NL Central		NL West
Philadelphia	90-72	Cincy	92-70	San Francisco	91-71
Washington	88-74	St. Louis	86-76	LA Dodgers	88-74
Atlanta	86-76	Pittsburgh	77-85	Arizona	85-77
NY Mets	70-92	Milwaukee	76-86	San Diego	80-82
Miami	62-100	Chicago	69-93	Colorado	65-97

ALCS: Tampa Bay over LA Angels

NLCS: San Francisco over Philadelphia

World Series: Tampa Bay over San Francisco

AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, LAA

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LAD

AL MVP: Evan Longoria (he'll finally stay healthy - jinx!), TB

NL MVP: Matt Kemp, LAD

AL HR Leader: Adam Dunn, CHW

NL HR Leader: Jay Bruce, Cin

Current MLB bets made on 5dimes: Tampa Over 86 wins; Cleveland Over 77.5. Likely to make a bet or two more before the season begins. Likely taking Tampa's World Series (currently 19/1) and division odds (+280)

As always, feel free to add your predictions below. I'll be glad to compare/contrast our picks

What to Make of the White Sox in 2013

When the news of A.J. signing with the Texas Rangers reached my ears, I started to have a funny feeling about how 2013 would play out.

Besides missing a guy who was consistent and steady as a hitter for the South Siders, A.J. was a hell of a leader. He got under the skin of opponents - as he used to do to the White Sox when he donned a Twins jersey to start his career.

A.J.'s presence with the staff is unquestioned. His baseball knowledge, combined with having one of the best pitching coaches in MLB in Don Cooper, has helped the White Sox in having one of the best front-to-back starting rotations in his time here.

Tyler Flowers has some big shoes to fill. Based on how long it took for the Sox brass to put their full support behind Flowers, I am hesitant to think he can even fill half of the shoes left behind by Pierzynski. You could say that A.J. was making it difficult for the White Sox to make Flowers their full-time catcher, but Flowers has done nothing to inspire my full confidence.

For this reason, among many others, I am having my doubts about the White Sox this year

Last year, I was wondering how Robin Ventura would handle his inaugural season as the skipper - I don't think there were many fans that didn't have this worry. By all reasonable accounts, Ventura succeeded, even though the White Sox blew a September division lead to the eventual World Series runner-ups.

The pitching staff stayed relatively healthy last year, with Jake Peavy managing to avoid the disabled list for the first time since 2007. However, I worry about the health of John Danks, who hasn't pitched since June. I am also skeptical of Jose Quintana, whose second-half ERA in 2012 (5.02) was over double what he did in the first half of the season. His K/BB ratio needs to improve or else we may see more of what we saw in the second half of 2012.

I do worry about the health of the top half of the rotation - it seems inevitable that Sale, Peavy and/or Danks will miss some time due to injury. I know it's hard to anticipate injury, but look at how delicate they treated Sale last year. Remember they almost made him the full-time closer in May despite his dominant performances? If that's not a sign of them worrying about his arm, I don't know what is. I get this feeling that Sale, like many young pitchers, is due for an injury early in his career that could sideline him a while - call it a gut feeling. Can Peavy be trusted to start another 32 games? Can Danks bounce back from his shoulder issues?

The bullpen remains a strength. Addison Reed enters his second year as the closer. His walks/hits allowed needs to improve if he wants to become a top-tier closer, but I see potential with him. Thornton, Nate Jones, Matt Lindstrom and whoever doesn't win the 5th spot in the rotation between Quintana and Hector Santiago will provide the set-up and long-relief work to get to Reed.  On the face of it, the bullpen should be the team's calling card for winning games.

I'd say there are some issues too with the outfield. You never know what Alex Rios you're gonna get. Dayan Viciedo is a great candidate to get 30+ home runs, but he strikes out too much with how little he walks (only 28 walks to 130 strikeouts in 543 plate appearances). De Aza is fairly average. And the back-ups in Spring Training (Jordan Danks, Jared Mitchell) seem like they're not going to be answers this year.

The infield is just as much of a question mark. Yes - Konerko has produced in the last few seasons better than just about anyone could expect, but how long can he keep this up? Beckham hasn't lived up to the hype that came with his arrival to the majors what feels like a decade ago - can he finally have an All-Star quality season? Alexei tailed off quite a bit last year - only 9 home runs in over 600 at bats. What might be even worse with the Cuban Missile is that he recorded only 16 walks en route to a pathetic .287 on-base percentage. The third base position is now manned by Jeff Keppinger, who can actually provide a steady bat and is able to play just about all of the infield positions. He doesn't really fit into the infield equation, but I expect to see the same Adam Dunn that we did last year, the same Adam Dunn that existed in every year except 2011 - a lot of HRs, a lot more strikeouts and a lot of walks.

Taking everything I mentioned above into the equation...what does all of this add up to? A lot of skepticism for this guy. If everything goes right for this team, I'm thinking high-end 86 wins....low-end could be in the low 70s, especially with the improved rosters of the Indians and Royals.

I'm going to say a disappointing 76-86 season awaits. No September teases this year. In fact, I can see a situation where Konerko gets traded in July to a contender, removing the final member of the 2005 World Series squad.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I'll be wrong here.

Feel free to share your thoughts on the White Sox and tell me that I'm wrong (or that I'm right).

Fit Happens Chapter 6: Participant Profile 2 (Hippo)

Looking to take the belt of Fit Happens Champion

As you may have read in Chapter 5, we are nearing the halfway point of the contest. In that chapter, you read about Chris, who shared his goals and challenges in the contest so far.

Next on the profile docket is Hippo, who is close on my tail as far as the overall percentage lost is concerned. To his credit, he started losing weight outside of the contest in December, so all things considered, he's lost the most weight of all of us the past four months.

He shares some of the same goals and concerns as Chris, as we see in the latest edition of Fit Happens, Participant Profiles.

1.       What made you decide to do Fit Happens?

I have been overweight my whole life, and as the years pass by it becomes more and more difficult to lose weight. I basically came to the conclusion that if I didn't get healthy now, I never will.

 2.       What were your goals to come out of this?

I want to be "healthy". No matter how many pounds it takes me to lose, or how much time it takes, I want to be able to walk into my doctor's office and have them tell me I am healthy. 

3.       What changes have you made to your daily habits during the contest?

First and foremost I am eating a more "normal" amount of food. In addition to that I am eating more fruit and less extremely bad foods. I am also exercising a few times a week. Most importantly I am trying to break my obsession with stuffing myself.

4.       Have you ran into any difficulties during this contest? If so, how have you overcome them or trying to overcome them?

It's definitely been hard, but it gets easier every day. Getting through the first few weeks and getting to the point where I could eat less was definitely the biggest challenge. Staying motivated has also been an issue. After the initial rush of losing a bunch of weight wore off, it's hard to keep it going day in and day out.

5.       When the contest is over, do you think it will be hard to keep up this level of intense workout and/or diet?

It will be hard for a long time. I don't plan on stopping when the contest ends because I won't be at my goal. But once I get there I won't be confident that I can keep it up for a while.

6.       Entering the second half of the contest, what are your goals for the next three months? Have you had to adjust them as time has passed?

No new goals. Just keep up the same routine, keep losing weight and trending in the right direction.

7.       What do you expect your final weigh-in to be?

Originally I wanted to drop around 30, but I am already there, so I have moved my target to 50 pounds. But as long as I am still moving in the right direction I will be happy.

8.       In your honest opinion, who do you think is going to win the contest?

Honestly, my money would not have been on B-Bo, but he has absolutely dominated so far. Chris was at a massive disadvantage since he already worked out so much. And while he is definitely in the best shape now, and will be when it's over, I think it will be tough for him to lose too much more. Even if he doesn't win, he will have still accomplished a lot. Dave doesn't seem to care enough at this point, and even though he is behind if he wanted to he could easily catch up. I like my own chances at this point, but B-Bo has gone the extra mile so far, and he is the favorite at this point. Ask me again in a month though.

A Bunch of Bull: Why Derrick Rose Owes You Nothing

Remember the last time Derrick played in garbage time? Yeahhhh

Did you lend him $50 for a pair of shoes years back? Did you cover his lunch at Wild Wings and he promised to get you back?

No and no? Ok then. Derrick Rose doesn't owe you a thing.

Not a goddamn thing.


You say he owes you to play out the end of the regular season. You pay his salary after all, or so you say - actually Jerry Reinsdorf does. If anything, he would owe it to his team and organization, and I'd argue that even that is false. When a man's health is in question, he owes nothing to anyone.

You say he should play because he is practicing just fine, that he's running around, taking shots and looking decent. Do you really know how he is? Practice versus game is a different beast. Plus, if it happens to be a mental issue and he just doesn't think he's ready, do you really trust him to be his elite self right now?

Sure, you say you don't expect him to dominate right away, but why demand that he plays at all this year, especially if he is not going to be dominant?

You say that other athletes recently have recovered from ACL injuries in a faster time period (Adrian Peterson has officially ruined the reasonable recovery time for these injuries - beware RGIII). It's not reasonable to expect Rose's ACL to heal as fast as a guy like AP's (or for anyone who has had quick recoveries from the type of injury Rose has had). Everyone's body is built differently and they all heal differently, so you can't expect one case to be like another.

Are you questioning his heart if he is not playing? Just because we see guys like Michael Jordan playing through a flu and we see Brett Favre tough out injuries for years to start over 300 straight games, we expect our stars to "gut it out and play". Like I said before, whether it's still his injury that is affecting him or if he just doesn't believe that he is ready to come back mentally, it does him no good to be out there.

Rose will be 25 years old when the 2013-14 season begins. He has an entire future of basketball to worry about. It might not be as long of a career as Steve Nash has had, especially if Rose continues with his aggressive style of driving to the hoop against the taller trees of the NBA. Nevertheless, it's still a decade of potential greatness that he has no reason to risk on some meaningless regular season games. Besides, this is not a Bulls team that can be considered an NBA Finals team, especially with how dominant the Heat have been. Don't be deceived by the Bulls' regular season victories this year against the Heat - they mean nothing come playoff time. The Heat will run through the East.

With this being Spring/baseball season, now's as good of a time to say this to a Chicago fan...Wait till Next Year

If you ask me (and I know you did, since you're still reading), I think he should sit this season out, get everything fully healed, and get ready for the 2013 season. He has too bright of a future to risk for this year.

You think he owes it to you, the fan who sits on his ass at the United Center with popcorn butter and ketchup covering his #1 jersey, to play this season? He owes you nothing.

If anything, you owe him a little patience. Wouldn't you rather have a healthy Rose next year than a hobbled one (whether it be physically or mentally hobbled) playing?

Talents like Rose don't come around often, so be patient and wait for the return of #1 next year. Believe me, it will be worth the wait.

Fit Happens Chapter 5 - Participant Profile 1 (Chris)

The third month of Fit Happens is about to wind down. For all four of us, it has been the most challenging month as far as weight loss goes. The toughest part of the contest by far - where motivation amid lower weight loss than previous months enters into the equation. It looks like it will come down to me versus Hippo for the monthly winner - a mere 0.03% difference in our total weight loss for March entering the last 5 days. I will provide an official blog at the beginning of April for March's results as well as the overall standings.

As the contest has entered its halfway point, I wanted to profile each of the contestants aside from myself. The only one to respond so far is Chris, who was kind enough to answer some questions about the inspiration for the contest as well as some goals and challenges he has faced as the contest has developed.

Chris cooking up some results in the weight loss category.

1.       What made you decide to do Fit Happens? I needed to lose some weight.  On a binge eating experience with Hippo and Magic Bus, Hippo started talking about a weight loss program he was trying.  That got the ball rolling.  Before too long we were creating a contest.  The motivation to lose weight as already there, the contest just made it more serious and urgent

2.       What were your goals to come out of this? To lose weight and look skinnier.  I had a goal weight in mind, but I think my number one goal is just to look and feel better.

3.       What changes have you made to your daily habits during the contest? The biggest thing I have attempted is to eat less and eat slower.  I have not modified my diet all that much in terms of what I eat.  I just try to eat less and by eating slower, I recognize when I am no longer hungry and am able to stop.  Before I would regularly shovel food as fast as possible and would stuff myself way too often.  I'd feel sick afterward.  Honestly, there have only been 1-2 times during fit happens when I felt that way.  Major progress from my few times per week before the context.

4.       Have you ran into any difficulties during this contest? If so, how have you overcome them or trying to overcome them? The only difficulty I have had is the recent plateau.  We all shed a bunch of weight in the first few weeks/month.  After that it is much more of a slow burn.  There is less motivation when you lose half a pound in a week than when you are seeing multiple pounds per day come off.  I am just trying to keep up with the diet and the exercise intensity so that it continues to come off, even if it is only a small amount at a time.

5.       When the contest is over, do you think it will be hard to keep up this level of intense workout and/or diet? I should easily be able to maintain the diet.  I just need to remember to take it easy at meals and eat slowly.  My exercise regimen has been pretty intense.  I work out a minimum of 6 days/week right now.  That will be difficult to maintain, but I should be able to keep up at least a 4X/week program without much issue.

6.       Entering the second half of the contest, what are your goals for the next three months? Have you had to adjust them as time has passed? My goal is exactly the same - lose as much weight as possible.

7.       What do you expect your final weigh-in to be? Aspiration - 210; realistic - 215 (both much lower than I anticipated)

8.       In your honest opinion, who do you think is going to win the contest? B-Bo is on a tear, but Hippo is right on his tail.  I'd say that Magic Bus and I are comfortably out of the money.  I will leave it at that.

How's Your Bracket & Other March Madness Musings

How does your bracket look?

Honestly, I stopped looking at mine with the string of upsets on Thursday, particularly New Mexico (one of my Final Four). But with that loss, I decided that this March (and future Marches) would not be considered a success or failure based on my brackets. Instead, my focus will be strictly on my gambling account.

Does this look like a successful bracket to you?

I don't think this bracket is going to win me anything. Too many red lines too early in the tourney.

But you know what? As long as the bets I make are coming in, I don't care if this whole sheet is full of red lines.

I have had some bad bets (Montana was my worst bet of the year, possibly a top-5 all-time worst bet) - note that I don't always bet with my bracket (but usually do). For instance, one of my best bets ever came on Friday, betting on Florida Gulf Coast against Georgetown (the first half line of +7.5, game line of +13.5 & the best part, the money line of +800 - the biggest money line I've ever hit for a single game).

Are We the Champions?

The big bets still alive exist in the East bracket, where I have two teams still alive for my prop bet to win the tourney. Illinois did what they could to blow their huge lead, but ultimately held on to win. They face Miami on Sunday. I'm not really sure what to expect from them, but I'm hoping that they or California (preferably both) can pull off upsets in their Round of 32 matchups - Cali has Syracuse Saturday night.

A California title would net me $3750 on a $15 bet, while an Illinois championship would pay $4125. The odds of either team winning it are still remote, but it's still nice to see them stay alive. I hope one of them teases me with another win and a promotion to the Sweet 16.

Speaking of Illinois...

I've heard there's a lot of Illinois fans consumed with hatred of Bruce Weber, so much so that they seem to be enjoying the Kansas State loss more than their school's win. If you have any issues with Weber, you have issues yourself. I'm not sure what he did to get people to hate him so much. So what if he wasn't the best basketball coach? It's not like the guy murdered anyone - no reason to root so hard against a guy that led your school to its only title appearance in 2005.

If you're an Illini fan reading this and you're angry with Weber about his stint with Illinois....get over it. It's over and done with. Embrace the current and future Illinois teams. Enjoy watching these teams coached by a fantastic young coach (John Groce was a great hire) who has proven himself as a solid recruiter. Don't waste your energy on a part of our school's past that frankly wasn't all that bad.

Speaking of bad...

Did any of you attempt to watch most/all of the March Madness action? If so, I apologize. My eyes and brain hurt greatly from the poor quality of games so far this tourney. Forgive me if you disagree, but the quality of play from most teams was evident. I'm sure you can cite a plethora of reasons for this: (1) playing outside of normal game conditions, (2) lack of overall talent due to underclassmen going to the NBA, (3) pacing of games is choppy with all the TV timeouts, coaching timeouts and fouls, etc.

For me, especially this year, it's been almost impossible for me to watch games without having a reason to watch it (i.e. gambling). And for many of you, you'd probably not be watching these games if you didn't have bets on it or a bracket to follow. Gambling and brackets drive the March Madness, not the quality of play. We get so blinded by how great college basketball supposedly is by the 63 items to fill on those brackets that we don't even realize how poorly played these games are. Sloppy fouls, horrible turnovers, ridiculous shots that require viewers to consume shots. If you can enjoy these games without a bracket and without bets, then all the more power to you - I can't.

Good luck with your bets/brackets the rest of the tourney. I hope the games are higher quality than we've seen so far.

Brian's Bracket - 2013 Version

Nothing else needs to be said, aside from my two tourney bets that aren't reflected on my bracket:

169809293-1

3/21/13 12:54am

$15.00

$4,125.00

Pending

3/21/13 12:15pm Basketball NCAA Men's Basketball +27500 National Champion 2012/13 - Illinois

166242856-1

3/2/13 2:54am

$15.00

$3,750.00

Pending

3/2/13 12:00pm Basketball NCAA Men's Basketball +25000 National Champion 2012/13 - California

Good luck with your brackets. Here is my bracket of integrity (in an offshoot, I have New Mexico winning it over Indiana)