When the news of A.J. signing with the Texas Rangers reached my ears, I started to have a funny feeling about how 2013 would play out.
Besides missing a guy who was consistent and steady as a hitter for the South Siders, A.J. was a hell of a leader. He got under the skin of opponents - as he used to do to the White Sox when he donned a Twins jersey to start his career.
A.J.'s presence with the staff is unquestioned. His baseball knowledge, combined with having one of the best pitching coaches in MLB in Don Cooper, has helped the White Sox in having one of the best front-to-back starting rotations in his time here.
Tyler Flowers has some big shoes to fill. Based on how long it took for the Sox brass to put their full support behind Flowers, I am hesitant to think he can even fill half of the shoes left behind by Pierzynski. You could say that A.J. was making it difficult for the White Sox to make Flowers their full-time catcher, but Flowers has done nothing to inspire my full confidence.
For this reason, among many others, I am having my doubts about the White Sox this year
Last year, I was wondering how Robin Ventura would handle his inaugural season as the skipper - I don't think there were many fans that didn't have this worry. By all reasonable accounts, Ventura succeeded, even though the White Sox blew a September division lead to the eventual World Series runner-ups.
The pitching staff stayed relatively healthy last year, with Jake Peavy managing to avoid the disabled list for the first time since 2007. However, I worry about the health of John Danks, who hasn't pitched since June. I am also skeptical of Jose Quintana, whose second-half ERA in 2012 (5.02) was over double what he did in the first half of the season. His K/BB ratio needs to improve or else we may see more of what we saw in the second half of 2012.
I do worry about the health of the top half of the rotation - it seems inevitable that Sale, Peavy and/or Danks will miss some time due to injury. I know it's hard to anticipate injury, but look at how delicate they treated Sale last year. Remember they almost made him the full-time closer in May despite his dominant performances? If that's not a sign of them worrying about his arm, I don't know what is. I get this feeling that Sale, like many young pitchers, is due for an injury early in his career that could sideline him a while - call it a gut feeling. Can Peavy be trusted to start another 32 games? Can Danks bounce back from his shoulder issues?
The bullpen remains a strength. Addison Reed enters his second year as the closer. His walks/hits allowed needs to improve if he wants to become a top-tier closer, but I see potential with him. Thornton, Nate Jones, Matt Lindstrom and whoever doesn't win the 5th spot in the rotation between Quintana and Hector Santiago will provide the set-up and long-relief work to get to Reed. On the face of it, the bullpen should be the team's calling card for winning games.
I'd say there are some issues too with the outfield. You never know what Alex Rios you're gonna get. Dayan Viciedo is a great candidate to get 30+ home runs, but he strikes out too much with how little he walks (only 28 walks to 130 strikeouts in 543 plate appearances). De Aza is fairly average. And the back-ups in Spring Training (Jordan Danks, Jared Mitchell) seem like they're not going to be answers this year.
The infield is just as much of a question mark. Yes - Konerko has produced in the last few seasons better than just about anyone could expect, but how long can he keep this up? Beckham hasn't lived up to the hype that came with his arrival to the majors what feels like a decade ago - can he finally have an All-Star quality season? Alexei tailed off quite a bit last year - only 9 home runs in over 600 at bats. What might be even worse with the Cuban Missile is that he recorded only 16 walks en route to a pathetic .287 on-base percentage. The third base position is now manned by Jeff Keppinger, who can actually provide a steady bat and is able to play just about all of the infield positions. He doesn't really fit into the infield equation, but I expect to see the same Adam Dunn that we did last year, the same Adam Dunn that existed in every year except 2011 - a lot of HRs, a lot more strikeouts and a lot of walks.
Taking everything I mentioned above into the equation...what does all of this add up to? A lot of skepticism for this guy. If everything goes right for this team, I'm thinking high-end 86 wins....low-end could be in the low 70s, especially with the improved rosters of the Indians and Royals.
I'm going to say a disappointing 76-86 season awaits. No September teases this year. In fact, I can see a situation where Konerko gets traded in July to a contender, removing the final member of the 2005 World Series squad.
I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I'll be wrong here.
Feel free to share your thoughts on the White Sox and tell me that I'm wrong (or that I'm right).
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