QB or not QB: The Cynical Views of a 49ers Fan

Not much since the Jeff Garcia era has gone right for the San Francisco 49ers - from the numerous coaching changes to the botched QB decisions. No matter how you dice it, as a #1 pick, Alex Smith has failed to become the franchise guy that any team who drafts a QB with the top selection should expect. Yet....for some reason, the Niners/Harbaugh want to bring the model of inconsistency back into the fold for next year. I guess it makes some sense, given the lack of practice time that any new QB, including Colin Kaepernick, would have due to the lockout.

On the bright side (and the only bright side) I can find about bringing Smith back is that he finally may have a competent offensive mind to work with. Harbaugh had a big hand in developing Andrew Luck into the future 2012 #1 pick (barring injury) and also putting Stanford football on the map in a very short amount of time, capping off his last season with the Cardinal in a very impressive romping of V-Tech.

With the drafting of a new QB, you'd think I'd be happier, given the impending end of the Alex Smith era and the hope of success with the young guy. However, Kaepernick enters the NFL on similar terms as Smith did: both men played on offenses in college that make for a difficult transition into the pro game. Smith played under the tutelage of Urban Meyer while Meyer was still an up-and-coming coach for Utah. Meyer emphasized the "spread offense", which usually uses 4-5 receiver sets to space out defenders and give the offense more room to run and pass. In college systems like this, the QB used is often quick and usually has an option to run or pass. Here are Smith's statistics in his junior year, after which he declared for the NFL draft:

• 32 TDs, 4 Ints in 317 attempts for 2952 yards, completing over two-thirds of his passes in the process
• 135 attempts for 631 yards (deceiving because in college, they count sacks as negative rushing yards), 10 TDs rushing

Comparably, Kaepernick just finished his college stint at Nevada playing in the Pistol formation, which is almost a merger of the shotgun and the I formation, except it's just 1 running back behind the QB as he stands in shotgun. Like Smith, Kaepernick's system emphasized the option as a big part of its offense, resulting in some well-rounded Smith-like stats for CK's senior year campaign:

• 22 TDs, 8 picks in 359 passes for 3022 yards, completing about 65% of his passes
• 173 attempts for 1206 yards (7 yards/carry) for 20 TDs

In each man's last seasons, both contributed exactly 42 TDs (roughly 3.5 per game), with Smith having the edge in passing efficiency and Kaepernick literally running away with the rushing title between the two. Both men had similar yardage and completion totals. Both men also took great advantage of the systems that allowed them to put up the stats that they did.

However, it remains to be seen whether Kaepernick will fall prey to the system QB problem that Smith had. Lining up under center is a lot different than in an option-based shotgun formation, which could never work in the NFL due to the speed of the game. I do think that both quarterbacks will benefit from having a former QB coaching them.

If neither can succeed with this guy as coach, then forget about it. Personally, the inevitable signing of Alex Smith is puzzling, but since it is inevitable, I'd like to see both the new coach and the motivation of a draft pick to light a fire under his ass to give Smith a decent chance at improvement.

Time will tell, and hopefully time will allow this to play out as scheduled. I wish whatever QB plays this year the best, and hopefully the best results in our first division championship since Mooch was coach.

NBA Playoffs - Round 2

As the NBA Playoffs first round comes to an end, there have been some surprises, at least to Joe Public:

• Chicago had its hands full, albeit in only 5 games, vs Indiana. Four out of the five games ended competitively. It may have been the best thing to happen to the Bulls, who got a taste of what NBA playoff basketball is all about - rough, tough, grind-it-out
• After being throttled last year by the Magic, the Hawks weren't given much chance to win their series, including yours truly. Atlanta did exactly what they needed to do to win the series: win one road game and hold their own at home. I think the Bulls should be happy they don't have to face Howard- considering that the Indiana bigs seemed to have their way with the Bulls
• Miami disposed of Philly in 5. Philly's fight in the series shouldn't be a surprise, but they just don't have the talent Miami has.
• Boston aimed to make my Knicks prediction to win the series an ugly guess. And ugly might be an understatement. What a bad bad guess. Boston showed its playoff pride off in fashion, setting up the best series of the young playoffs with their matchup against the Heat.
• OKC win their first playoff series in their young franchise history, edging the Nuggets in three close matchups on their way to a 4-1 series win. I feel confident in OKC making it to the conference finals even more so than before.
• Dallas win in 6 in what first appeared to be a series where the home team would win all 7 games until Dallas ruined that pattern in 6. Dallas survived a game 4 meltdown by coming out strong in games 5 and 6 to close out the series.
• Lakers don't get any style points (at least to start) in their series win against the Hornets, but luckily this isn't gymnastics. They did close out the series well after playing to a 2-2 draw to start the series, throttling New Orleans in the final two games. The Laker switch is officially on.
• Memphis looks to become the first 8 seed in about 5 years to win a series (since the Warriors upended the Mavericks in 6 games)

So all of this leads up to 2nd round predictions, which if they were anything like my 1st round predictions, will probably be horsecrap and instant fade material:

• Miami vs. Boston (Bookmaker series odds: Miami -195/Boston +165): While this series may open up the 2nd round action, in the realm of fan interest, would be the main event match/series. Boston took the season series from Miami (as every good team aside from the Lakers seemed to do), downing Miami in 3 of 4 games. My guess for Miami being a decent favorite here would haveA to do with home court, but Boston is more than capable of winning on the road against them. This has the makings of a fantastic series to watch. I say they split the first two games in Miami, then the next two in Boston. From there, I got home court playing the role in the winner. Prediction: Heat in 7 games.
• Chicago vs. Atlanta (Bookmaker series odds: Chicago -900/Atlanta +650): These odds seem too steep for the Bulls here, although they did dominate the Hawks in 5 out of the 6 halves of basketball (only bad half resulted in the Bulls' lone loss vs Hotlanta). Atlanta took care of business in all three of their home games against Orlando in the last series. The Bulls, unlike Orlando, will not lose a home game in the series and will probably steal a game in Atlanta. Prediction: Bulls in 5 games.
• Los Angeles vs. Dallas (Bookmaker series odds: Lakers -380/Mavs +320): I'm not as sold on the Lakers as I thought I'd be at this point. They did close the last series like only the Lakers can. I think the Mavs will give the Lakers problems, particularly with the depth that they have. At the end of the day, I can't fade Kobe. Prediction: Lakers in 7.
• Oklahoma City vs. Memphis/San Antonio (Series odds: N/A): Since I want to beat the clock by getting all of my series predictions out there now, I'll be forced to project each team's chances against OKC. The Spurs would be a slight favorite over the Thunder if only for home court advantage and playoff experience, whereas Memphis would be an underdog in the +225/250 for the series. Either way, nothing that I've seen from OKC in their 5 game tilt against Denver makes me change my mind about them. My only worry is that Westbrook is a chucker, so Durant better make sure to shoot, shoot, shoot (and maybe shoot more) as he always does. I believe the Thunder will take the next step (as a franchise) against whoever they play. Prediction: OKC in 6 (against either team).

These predictions shouldn't come as a shock to anyone who read my NBA playoff preview. I'm not one so stubborn to go against previous predictions, but everything I've seen from the teams I had in my NBA Final Four has me believing that each will continue on their current paths.

Peace out.

Ain't She Grand (The Bolek Matriarch)

Virginia Nielsen Bolek was a mother of five and a wonderful wife.
A grandma and great-grandma to many a life.
We can't judge her worth simply on her years on Earth,
But also the memories we will carry as we have since birth,

Of a wonderful woman who carried the name Bolek into what it is today.
A proud family with rich traditions that will stay
Around for milleniums to come
A family that is immense but will always be a unit of One.

While only some of us can claim her as a Grandma, great-grandma or Mom,
She was a mom who was great and grand to us all.
She will remain with us forever and ever.
She will be there with us when we rise and fall.

And rise and fall again, from beginning to end.
An angel over our shoulder when we need a friend.
She is what every family would want with its matriarch.
She led a life that left an indelible mark.

She will always be here, to make sure we are ok.
Day and night, night and day.
Let us not mourn her loss today, but rather celebrate her life.
By being the best children, fathers and mothers, husbands and wives

That we can be. Let's live out her memory.
It's the way she would want it to be.
Today, let's celebrate Virginia Bolek for what she was and what she will be-
A beacon of a Bolek & Nielsen - from now until eternity.

I'm With The Band (wagon): How Do You Know Who is Who?

The past couple of hockey playoff seasons, I've observed the sudden rise in the Blackhawks. And while most people in my position (not a hockey fan and not really part of the wagon or true Hawks fan) wouldn't give a crap, I've always wondered if there's an easy way to spot out a bandwagoner from a true fan.

Are there certain signs that I should be looking for from the bandwagoners that wouldn't be seen in a true fan? Would quizzing people on the team's past (like anything from beyond the past 4-5 years) prove anything in their status? Are there certain jerseys that bandwagoners have that are considered too trendy for a "true" Hawks fan to get? I'm actually legitimately asking these questions, because I have no clue as an outsider to observes a plethora of Hawks love on social media - and while I know some of them are true fans, I also know there are some who are following the Hawks (much like some folks following the Bulls) because it's the cool thing to do.

I'm sure you (whoever reads this as a Hawks fan) know who, among your group of friends and "friends" on facebook, is a true fan. My question to you is: how do you distinguish between a true fan and a bandwagon?

If any of you have answers to this, I'd welcome some comments on the subject.

Big sports day in Chicago Tuesday. Buckle up where ever you watch the games.

-B

Grateful Bed

I had an amazing dream about a girl who I've never met- I believe she said she was from northwest Indiana in the dream. When you're dreaming, sometimes you don't realize you're dreaming...or maybe you never really do until you wake up- I don't know. Either way, it was one of the better dreams I've had in a long while. It was a dream I didn't want to escape.

Of course, I had to wake up from it around 8am. I'm not sure if any of you have ever tried going back to sleep and recreate a dream you just had, but it never goes to plan. I laid in bed and fell back asleep, but was unsuccessful in dreaming about this mystery girl again.

Maybe it's a sign of something to come. I suppose it's better than dreaming about something gruesome.

Just gotta keep my eyes open and be at the right place at the right time. Maybe this will turn into a case of deja vu, like I've had happen before with previous dreams of mine.

Just gotta go out there and re-create it in reality.

Life of Brians: The Tale of the Tape between Me and Scalabrine



  

Brian Scalabrine (far left)

 Brian Bolek

One may think me and Scalabrine don't have much to compare to each other, but I'm ready to prove that wrong. Here's a tale of the tape between me and the red-headed Italian:

Height: Me: 5 foot 9; Scalabrine; 6 foot 9. Advantage: In hide and seek and houses with low ceilings: me; With women and everything else in life: him.

Weight: Me: about 220 right now; Scalabrine: 235. Advantage: Scalabrine wins all-around, considering that's probably a normal weight for his height and mine is obese.

Hair color: Me: Brown; Scalabrine: Gingery. Advantage: Me. Duh.

Job title: Me: Sales Support Specialist for a consulting company; Scalabrine: Suit Model for the Chicago Bulls. Advantage: Me, because I don't have to leave the comforts of my home to work and also don't even need to wear clothes.

Salary:  Me: close to 50K; Scalabrine: $1.2 million (per basketball-reference.com data). Advantage: Scalabrine, by a landslide

Salary broken down by $ earned per minute worked: Me: 2000 hours worked, so 120,000 minutes. $0.41/minute worked; Scalabrine: 88 minutes played (18 appearances), $13,636.36/minutes worked. Advantage: Clearly me....wait, I mean him.

Chances of making the NBA Hall of Fame, per basketball-reference.com: Me: (Data not available); Scalabrine: Hall of Fame Probability Active 0.000 (181) Career 0.000 (1050). Advantage: Me. Data not available means I could have been a hall of famer if I wanted to be. I just prefer not to live in the limelight.

Chances of picking up random chicks at Chicago bar: Me: See Scalabrine's Hall of Fame odds; Scalabrine: 100%. Advantage: Scalabrine

People we hang out with: Me: degenerate gamblers, drunkards, obese people; Scalabrine: Derrick Rose, Kevin Garnett. Advantage: Sorry, Scally wins this. Nothing against you people. If any of you learn a cross-over dribble and can make $13 grand per minute worked in a year, then we'll talk. (Editor's note: It should be noted that the people I hang out with all have my traits, so you could essentially say I hang out with myself and it'd be accurate).

Final score: Scalabrine wins 6-3.

If I tried comparing myself to any of the other Bulls players, I'm sure I'd win more categories. But it's Scalabrine we're talking about here. I dare you to find a dude with a sweeter job in Chicago right now....

.......

.......

.......

.......

Yeah, that's what I thought.



#1s with Some Bullets

Some bullet points of a blog today:

• I have officially bet the entire AL Central to win the World Series. Before the season started, I threw $20 on the Sox at 21/1 odds (20 to win 420). I just checked all of the team's odds in the AL Central outside of the Sox and they were all 40/1 or over. So I threw $6 on KC (80/1 odds), $8 on the Twins (60/1 odds) and $10 each on the Indians and Tigers (both 40/1). Whether this proves to be a dumb strategy is a non-arguing point (I know it's stupid). I guess I figured if my Sox bet was gonna be shot in October, I might as well insure myself with the rest of the division at such high prices.
• Two trains of thought with the Bulls after going up 2-0 in the series: (1) Being on a double digit win streak, they're clearly doing something right, so no use in complaining on how they win, just as long as they win vs. (2) A #1 seed such as the Bulls with the supposed MVP should be destroying the Pacers on their home court, where they've shown themselves to be a dominant force, not letting them hang around (or in Game 1's sake, hold a lead the entire game up until the last minute). Both points can be argued. I don't think the Bulls can play like this against the Heat or Celtics (or even the Magic/Hawks) and expect to advance to the Finals.
• Speaking of the Bulls, I wore the Brian Scalabrine jersey again yesterday. I believe I have worn the jersey more than he has in 2011, and in about a quarter of the time.
• First day without class, so that means going to a bar of course. Well, for a friend's birthday. I don't want to make going to bars a habit, but I don't want to be trapped at home either this summer. Especially considering I work from home. So if you're reading this, GET ME OUT OF THE HOUSE!
• Just pulled the trigger on the Knicks for Game 2 tonight. I pegged them winning one of the first two games at Boston, so figured it was worth the risk at +275 for $35.
• Looks like The Playoff Stubble that I spoke of last week is about right for the Blackhawks, who are on the brink of elimination. I say they pull out a couple of wins here just to tease everyone, but then lose in Game 6.

....coming soon in the next day or two, a Scalabrine article that you will definitely want to read. Stay tuned.

World Series Bets Placed:

96124773	TNTODDS TO WIN 2011 WORLD SERIES [11108] CLEVELAND INDIANS +4000 $10.00 $400.00
96124774	TNTODDS TO WIN 2011 WORLD SERIES [11110] DETROIT TIGERS +4000 $10.00 $400.00
96124775	TNTODDS TO WIN 2011 WORLD SERIES [11113] KANSAS CITY ROYALS +8000 $6.00 $480.00
96124776	TNTODDS TO WIN 2011 WORLD SERIES [11117] MINNESOTA TWINS +6000 $8.00 $480.00