It would be fitting for me to write a blog about a sleeper team as most people are snuggled away in their beds, having March Madness nightmares. Flying brackets are coming at them at high speeds, with large seeds being planted deep in their membranes. Should I pick that upset? Should I keep this team in my Sweet 16?
Yes, you should pick that upset - that's what March Madness is for. And yes, keep them there - you're always better off going with your gut instinct with these things.
One team you shouldn't sleep on is one that practically fell asleep mid-season, but was fairly awake for the beginning part of the year along with wet dream games against Ohio State and Indiana. In fact, they lay claim as the only team in the tourney that can say they beat three of the top eight seeds in the tourney.
Yes - Illinois fits the role of the Cinderella. Will the shoe fit?
Beating the Big Boys
It fit when they traveled to Spokane in the early part of the year when they shot lights out against Gonzaga in a hostile environment. A month later, they never trailed in a blowout of Ohio State at home. Another month after that, a spirited second half comeback helped the Illini upset then No.1 Indiana.
Sure, they've had their clunkers (see: plenty of the Big Ten schedule, especially games against Northwestern at home and at Wisconsin). Not too often an 8-10 Big Ten team is worthy of a 7 seed in the tourney, but the Illini's strength of victory has to be considered when the bracket is put together.
This blog might be useless come Friday afternoon if they lay a dud against Colorado (possible). But the way Illinois has played this season, they feel like they are just as likely to advance to the Elite Eight as they are to lose in their first game.
Yes, I believe they can beat Colorado, Miami and their third opponent (whoever it may be). Hell, if Indiana is still standing at that point, I believe Illinois could beat them as well - they already proved earlier this year that they can play with them.
Track Record
Besides, let's not forget what their new coach John Groce did with mid-major Ohio last year, leading them into the Sweet 16 and taking top-seeded North Carolina to overtime before just missing a chance at an Elite 8 appearance.
When Illinois is playing at its peak, it has proven it can beat the top teams in the country. Here's to hoping, especially as an alumnus of the Fighting Illini, that they can find some of their early season magic, which led to a 12-0 start and win a string of games that can take them into the second weekend of the tourney and beyond.
I have Illinois losing to Indiana in the Elite Eight, for what it's worth. I might take a shot before the tourney starts at Illinois' 275/1 odds to win the tourney.
When they lose in the first round against Colorado, don't say I didn't warn you (and don't say I covered my ass by including this disclaimer - talking out of both sides of our ass is what writers/prognosticators do).
If the shoe fits....we shall see.
Showing posts with label final four. Show all posts
Showing posts with label final four. Show all posts
3/31/2012
The Rides of March - Final Four Preview
It's getting to the end of the college season, which I'm sure some of you are mourning like me, while others are just glad their boyfriends aren't going to be watching this March Madness crap anymore.
Both games feature regular season rematches from December. Kansas continued their dominance on their home court and handled Ohio State last time around, but the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger, a late scratch in the game.
While Ohio State was expected to dominate the Big Ten and compete for the title this year, Kansas was thought to be in a rebuilding process - at least for them. Many projects had Kansas finishing behind Baylor and Missouri in the Big 12.
Louisville +8.5 vs. Kentucky
Kentucky downed Louisville by 7 on New Year's Eve, but were up by double digits much of the latter part of the game. As the cliche goes, these teams are a shell of what they were. Kentucky's young guns are much more seasoned, while Louisville has developed into one of the best defenses in college basketball.
At this point in the tourney, when you're betting some of these Final Four teams throughout the tourney and riding them to profit, it becomes difficult to bet against them. For me, the team that fits this bill the best is Louisville, a squad I have backed from the Round of 32 into the Elite Eight.
Despite the bet being a squarish (very public/popular) bet, I refreshed my phone in delight as Louisville covered the spread by a bucket over New Mexico on St. Patrick's Day. Five days later, I was delighted to see the Cardinals as 5 to 5.5 point underdogs versus Michigan State, the top seed in the region with a coach (Tom Izzo) who has a reputation for great coaching in March Madness.
After Louisville's convincing win there, they had to face the Florida Gators, who many sharp bettors thought had the better chance to advance to the Final Four thanks to more scoring options. It was looking that way for the first 33-34 minutes of the game, with Florida storming out of the gate with an insane shooting display. They led much of the game, mainly in the 7-10 point range, but a late rally by Louisville led -----> this guy <------ to celebrate to a third consecutive gambling win for me on Louisville.
In all, this Cardinals run netted me $800, so you can see why I may have a soft spot for them tonight against Kentucky, who I picked to win the tourney when the brackets came out. As any gambler knows though, you have to take emotion out of the equation and you have to ignore who may or may not have won you money. With Kentucky tourney games, I went 1-1 (bet on them against Indiana, against their spread versus Baylor).
This is no way to analyze a game, but stuff I must keep in mind before making an emotional type of bet on the games. I do think this is going to be a hard-fought rivalry type of game. Their December 31st matchup featured 50+ fouls, which hopefully won't get quite that high today (for fear of the referees making themselves part of the game).
Kentucky has the superior talent, while Louisville has the better team defense. I expect this to be the Civil War that everyone is dubbing it. Rick Pitino prepares his teams well after long layoffs between games, which will be one of the reasons this game stays so close. Like their last game, I say Kentucky wins, but Louisville covers.
Kentucky 67, Louisville 61 (Betting Louisville +8.5)
Kansas +2.5 vs. Ohio State
I don't have as much of a feel on the other game. The scary thing about Kansas so far is that they haven't really played that great yet despite making the Final Four. The Jayhawks escaped with a win over Purdue and could never put away North Carolina State in the regional semifinals. They were going back and forth versus UNC before saving their best three-minute span of tourney basketball for the last three minutes and eventually running away from the Tar Heels.
Ohio State has confused some bettors this year, with people not sure what they are going to get out of the Buckeyes. Come tourney time, and the Buckeyes started taking care of business. Like Kansas, they downed a 1-seed to advance to the Final Four, thanks to a strong second half performance.
While Kansas won by 11 the last time around, I'd definitely say that the absence of Sullinger was the main reason to such a convincing victory. If I decide to bet this game, I'm leaning on taking Ohio State - just not sure how convinced I am that Kansas isn't going to show its talent a little more than they have so far in the tourney.
Ohio State 74, Kansas 70
Enjoy the games everyone.
Both games feature regular season rematches from December. Kansas continued their dominance on their home court and handled Ohio State last time around, but the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger, a late scratch in the game.
While Ohio State was expected to dominate the Big Ten and compete for the title this year, Kansas was thought to be in a rebuilding process - at least for them. Many projects had Kansas finishing behind Baylor and Missouri in the Big 12.
Louisville +8.5 vs. Kentucky
Kentucky downed Louisville by 7 on New Year's Eve, but were up by double digits much of the latter part of the game. As the cliche goes, these teams are a shell of what they were. Kentucky's young guns are much more seasoned, while Louisville has developed into one of the best defenses in college basketball.
At this point in the tourney, when you're betting some of these Final Four teams throughout the tourney and riding them to profit, it becomes difficult to bet against them. For me, the team that fits this bill the best is Louisville, a squad I have backed from the Round of 32 into the Elite Eight.
Despite the bet being a squarish (very public/popular) bet, I refreshed my phone in delight as Louisville covered the spread by a bucket over New Mexico on St. Patrick's Day. Five days later, I was delighted to see the Cardinals as 5 to 5.5 point underdogs versus Michigan State, the top seed in the region with a coach (Tom Izzo) who has a reputation for great coaching in March Madness.
After Louisville's convincing win there, they had to face the Florida Gators, who many sharp bettors thought had the better chance to advance to the Final Four thanks to more scoring options. It was looking that way for the first 33-34 minutes of the game, with Florida storming out of the gate with an insane shooting display. They led much of the game, mainly in the 7-10 point range, but a late rally by Louisville led -----> this guy <------ to celebrate to a third consecutive gambling win for me on Louisville.
In all, this Cardinals run netted me $800, so you can see why I may have a soft spot for them tonight against Kentucky, who I picked to win the tourney when the brackets came out. As any gambler knows though, you have to take emotion out of the equation and you have to ignore who may or may not have won you money. With Kentucky tourney games, I went 1-1 (bet on them against Indiana, against their spread versus Baylor).
This is no way to analyze a game, but stuff I must keep in mind before making an emotional type of bet on the games. I do think this is going to be a hard-fought rivalry type of game. Their December 31st matchup featured 50+ fouls, which hopefully won't get quite that high today (for fear of the referees making themselves part of the game).
Kentucky has the superior talent, while Louisville has the better team defense. I expect this to be the Civil War that everyone is dubbing it. Rick Pitino prepares his teams well after long layoffs between games, which will be one of the reasons this game stays so close. Like their last game, I say Kentucky wins, but Louisville covers.
Kentucky 67, Louisville 61 (Betting Louisville +8.5)
Kansas +2.5 vs. Ohio State
I don't have as much of a feel on the other game. The scary thing about Kansas so far is that they haven't really played that great yet despite making the Final Four. The Jayhawks escaped with a win over Purdue and could never put away North Carolina State in the regional semifinals. They were going back and forth versus UNC before saving their best three-minute span of tourney basketball for the last three minutes and eventually running away from the Tar Heels.
Ohio State has confused some bettors this year, with people not sure what they are going to get out of the Buckeyes. Come tourney time, and the Buckeyes started taking care of business. Like Kansas, they downed a 1-seed to advance to the Final Four, thanks to a strong second half performance.
While Kansas won by 11 the last time around, I'd definitely say that the absence of Sullinger was the main reason to such a convincing victory. If I decide to bet this game, I'm leaning on taking Ohio State - just not sure how convinced I am that Kansas isn't going to show its talent a little more than they have so far in the tourney.
Ohio State 74, Kansas 70
Enjoy the games everyone.
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