2013 NFL Divisional Predictions

Vegas was mostly a disaster gambling-wise last weekend. My NFL predictions went 2-2, but the other sports did me in. So much so, combined with my bad run the past 4-5 weeks, I decided to take a little break from handicapping these games. That doesn't mean I can't offer my contractually obligated Divisional predictions for this week.

Dating back to the Giants' first Super Bowl run in 2008, there has been at least one team favored by 7+ points who has lost every year in this round:

• 2008 - NYG upset Dallas as 7-point underdogs (21-17). I refer to this game as the "Scream Game", as this was the first big bet I ever won while in Vegas. It also happened to occur while I took a nap throughout the entire game. I was literally tired of losing every single bet I had made up until that point.  I woke up as the post-game was about to start and saw the final score and flipped out.
  
  San Diego also beat Indianapolis as 10.5 point underdogs on the same day (28-24). Boy, do I envy those crazy fools who parlayed SD & NYG money lines that day.
  
• 2009 - No one gave Arizona (+10) much of a chance against the Carolina Panthers in this particular year, but they should have. Hell, Arizona covered the reverse spread, winning easily 33-13 en route to to their franchise's first-ever Super Bowl run.
  
• 2010 - With how underachieving Norv Turner's teams have been, their loss to the Jets as 7.5 point favorites might not surprise people much. But there was enough of a talent difference (as was the case in the Norv era) for them to be favored by this much. The Jets won the defensive battle 17-14. With how bad the Jets are, this game feels like it happened a lot longer than 3 years ago.
  
• 2011 - After being destroyed in their last regular season tilt against the Patriots, the Jets were not given much of a chance to win the playoff matchup between the two in Foxboro, closing as a +9.5 underdog. As the story goes, the Jets won this straight up, 28-21
  
• 2012 - The Giants do it again, this time against Green Bay. The Giants (+8) dismantled the Packers 37-20, the second playoff step in their second championship run in the Eli era.

Random note: the last three of these upsets occurred in the last game of the weekend. So if the Ravens don't pull off the upset, don't be surprised if the Texans do it on Sunday afternoon.

Naturally, I bring these recent trends up because I anticipate one of the big dogs to win this weekend. Another Brady versus Manning AFC Championship game seems too good to be true.

Without further ado:

Baltimore 24, Denver 20 - This is more of a gut-feeling play than anything. I see Baltimore being the team that continues this trend. Normally, teams in this spot (blown out by the opponent in the regular season match-up) fair much better in the playoff rematch. Joe Flacco gets critiqued a lot, but he's won a playoff game in his first five years in the league, including a 4-4 road record. He has more career playoff road wins than many of the legends, including Peyton (2-4 road record) & Brady (3-2). 

There's too many Peyton playoff games that come to mind where he loses in this spot. In his previous 11 trips to the playoffs with the Colts, Manning went one-and-done seven times, including losses as a home team in four of them (three of which were off of a bye). The two Super Bowl runs are responsible for six of his nine career playoff wins (9-10 overall record).

San Francisco 21, Green Bay 17 - I'm torn both ways on this game. I worry about the Justin Smith injury and how effective he will be with a partially torn triceps. He sets everything up for Aldon Smith, who was  able to set the franchise record for sacks largely due to the attention that Justin draws on the line. I'm being the optimistic Niners fan boy here and saying Justin will be effective enough to help Aldon out and also help the rush defense.

I expect a game of ground-and-pound with Gore, who should get 25+ carries. Kaepernick will be facing an under-rated defense, which is getting players healthy at the right time of the year. I worry a little about our receiving depth - gonna need Randy Moss to step up.

In the end, I believe San Francisco's defense will hold up just enough to take this game.

Atlanta 28, Seattle 18 - It would shock no one if the Seahawks continued their roll and advanced to the NFC title game, especially given Atlanta's recent history of playoff ineptitude. I feel folks are sleeping on the Falcons and we haven't seen the best of them. I expect Matt Ryan to finally put together a solid playoff game  and send the Seahawks packing.

New England 27, Houston 20 - I don't see Houston getting spanked by New England again. These revenge match-ups benefit the team who got blown out in the previous match-up. Houston will want to neutralize Brady by feeding the ball to Arian Foster constantly (like I mentioned in the San Fran write-up for Gore). However, I don't think they can completely neutralize their passing attack, which will be enough for the Patriots to take this game.


Feel free to offer your own predictions. I look forward to being way wrong about these games.

Go Niners!

Fit Happens - A Healthy Contest Between Four Fatties (Chapter 1)

Good evening everyone.

You may have seen my Facebook post about this on New Year's Day, but in case you didn't, I joined a weight loss challenge with some friends that I have dubbed "Fit Happens". The fact that it started on New Year's goes against my idea of needing to change things at the start of a new year (I am a believer that New Year's Resolutions fail because people use the new year as an excuse to change something about themselves instead of actually wanting to change).

Nevertheless, the contest started on Day 1 of 2013, with the four contestants (myself, LionEsquire, Hippo & Dave) weighing in at close to a 1000 pounds. In this six month contest, the winner will be the one who loses the highest percentage of weight in the six month period.

The winner of each month (largest percentage lost) gets $10 each from the other contestants, with the overall winner netting $50 from everyone else. While that is a motivator, below is what will keep people from tanking in the contest.

In the event you may be losing the contest by a wide-margin, there is a clause that prevents me and my fellow fatties from tanking the contest and going back to their obese selves.

• If you fail to lose 7.5% of your weight in the contest, you must change your gamer tag (your video-game name/alias) for a year. Apparently this is a big deal in the video game community - I haven't played a video game since one of the Maddens like 3-4 years ago on PS2. Or for people like me (actually the only one in the contest not affected by the above), I must change my Facebook profile picture for a month. 7.5% is feasible - about 18 pounds in 6 months.
• The dreaded fatty clause is if one fails to lose 2.5% of their weight. In this scenario, the loser(s) must go out with the others to dinner in a dress. With how quickly everyone has lost weight so far, I don't see this happening.

I weighed myself today for the first time since the new year and went from 235.6 to 229.2 pounds (6.4 pounds). I'm sure most of it is water weight, but hey, it's progress. I'm actually shocked it was this much, given the fact I was in Vegas for four days, not consuming what many would call a "good diet", unless you think mai tais with cherries and pineapple is a good diet.

However, based on previous quests to lose weight, I know the easiest pounds to lose are the early ones - the later ones are the ones that are challenging. It's going to be difficult to lose in months 3 & 4, if my previous experience to lose weight is any indicator

Some new habits that I'm trying to institute for the New Year (aside from my Vegas trip - what happened there stayed there anyways). These goals are likely to be expanded upon as I progress through the contest:

1. Water, water, water - In the New Year, all I've had back here on the mainland (shhh, Vegas is an island, don't let maps fool you) is water and a couple of White Russians. It's been nothing but water otherwise.
2. Less eating - I still don't have the best diet, but what I've been doing is eating less and spreading out my eating throughout the day.
3. Eating out less - I believe me and Jen have only ordered out once since the year began, which is impressive since we usually end up doing it at least 2-3 times a week.
4. Exercising - I finally started using the gym in our basement. My goal is to use it about 100 times during this contest (which goes till June 30th). I am up to 4 in the first 11 days. I'll sneak in a workout tomorrow before my unofficial birthday celebration at The Shamrock to keep the pace up.

That's it for now. I don't have a timeframe on how often I will update this. I may even interview the fellow contestants at some point to see what they are doing to lose weight and improve their overall fitness.

30 Years Old, But Young at Fart (err...Heart)

With me being such a numbers guy and one who likes to reflect in blog form to my dozens of readers, I'm surprised that I didn't immediately write a synopsis on what it felt like to turn 30 just a week ago.

But once my 30th birthday actually hit on midnight last week, I realized that it was just another day. Just like many of the tens of thousands of it before.

I stayed up watching highlights of the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl (or for NIU fans, lowlights) with one of the cats next to me as I stared blankly at the boob tube. Once the hour and minute hit, I thought about it.

Cool...I'm 30. Then I went about my death stare as if it was just another birthday.

I know some people are age-obsessed and get caught up in the numbers of their life. To me, that's just the wrong way to live, unless of course you're obsessing about ages that get you certain privileges (like driving, buying alcohol, etc.).

If you are 40 years old and have the youthful spirit of a 20 year old, then I say you're 20. Don't obsess about some empty round numbers that should have no bearing on how you view yourself.

To me, being 30 does seem to add a pinch of maturity to my being. But if you are ever around me, you know my maturity level is that of a 15 year old. To prove my point, as I type this, I'm proudly wearing a t-shirt that says "Behold...Fartacus", one that I may or may not have worn two straight days.

This shirt, which I may have worn for two straight days, may be smelling like ...well....yeah.

I plan on living my 31st year on Earth the same way I did the first 30 - laughing, watching sports, enjoying time with family and friends, joking about farts. And farting. Excuse my gas, but I believe I have to maintain a certain level of immaturity to keep myself young at heart.

I hope to enjoy this year, as I always do, with the people I love doing the things I love (you know who you are). In the meantime, let's make 2013 a year for the books.

I Spy(Gate) Another Championship: NFL Playoff Preview & A Look Back at My Preseason Picks

Playoffs are here - I'd say there were some mild surprises in Week 17.

Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.

And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.

A look back at my predictions:

As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.

I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).

To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.

My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det

Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.

Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.


2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)

Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:

AFC:

Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)

NFC:

Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)

Round 1:

Game by game

Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20

Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.

Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.

Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.

If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.

AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing

NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.

AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)

Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta

Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.

I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.

Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.

Hot (and Then Not) & Week 17 Picks

The playoffs are a week away, which makes me simultaneously excited for the playoffs and disappointed that we are soon only 11 NFL games away from the end of the season.

In the past several weeks, we've heard a lot about some of the streaking teams in the NFL and how they may be the best teams in the NFL. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak heading into Week 17 and will likely make it 11 barring an act of God when they face Kansas City. With a win, they guarantee themselves a bye week and possibly a #1 seed if Houston manages to lose.

In the NFC, Washington, Green Bay & Seattle hold the longest win streaks of teams on the precipice of the playoffs. Seattle has has one of the best statistical three-week runs in the NFL this year en route to its 4-game win streak entering its finale against St. Louis. The Seahawks have won by an AVERAGE of 50-10 in their last three games. Granted, only one of those games was against a legit opponent (San Fran), but there has to be some credit given. I expect Seattle to win in Week 17 and enter the playoffs with a 5-game streak to end the year. Washington enters Week 17 on a 6-game tear and will make the playoffs if they make it seven by beating the Cowboys on Sunday Night. Green Bay can ensure a bye by beating the Vikings.

All of this talk about "hot teams" entering the playoffs got me thinking: what's the trend of teams entering the playoffs (specifically, the teams that make the Super Bowl)? Is there a trend for teams to end the year on a long streak to make/win the Super Bowl?

I looked back at the past ten years to see how playoff teams from each conference fared at the end of the regular season to see if these long streaks carried over into January. Outside of one exception, the team who entered the playoffs on the longest winning streak has not won the Super Bowl (New England in 2003 is the only team in the past decade to have the longest win streak and win the title).

Here are some fun facts from my findings of the past 10 years:

• Out of the 10 teams with the longest streak entering the playoffs, only three of those teams (NE '03, '07 & '11) even made the Super Bowl. There's been six teams who had at least a half-season winning streak (8+ wins) who didn't make the Super Bowl, including New Orleans last year.
• Out of the 20 conference champions, only 5 (25%) had the longest win-streak among their playoff conference counterparts. That means most teams who made it to the big game weren't the hottest team entering the playoffs.
• Super Bowl winners of the past 10 years have had the following streaks to end their years: won 12 (once), won 4 (once), won 2 (three times), won 1 (three times), lost 1 (once), lost 3 (once). While it doesn't necessarily pay to have a long win-streak to end the year, it seems as though something can be made of winning in the last week.
• Not related to the win streak thing, but it should be noted that out of the past seven Super Bowls, all but one of them has had a team who played in the Wild Card round - meaning that bye weeks don't seem to matter as much lately. Let's keep that in mind, Niners fans, should the Packers hold onto their 2nd seed. The only Super Bowl in this span containing teams that had byes was Indy vs. NO.

	AFC Champ	NFC Champ	Longest Win Streak entering playoffs (each conference)
2002	Oakland (W2)	Tampa (W1)	Ten -5; NYG - 4
2003	NE (W12)	Car (W3)	NE - 12; GB - 4
2004	NE (W2)	Phil (L2)	Pitt - 14; Sea/StL/GB - 2
2005	Pitt (W4)	Sea (L1)	Wash - 5; Pitt/Den - 4
2006	Ind (W1)	Chi (L1)	SD - 10; Phil - 5
2007	NE (W16)	NYG (L1)	NE - 16; Wash - 4
2008	Pitt (W1)	Ariz (W1)	Ind - 9; Atl - 3
2009	Ind (L2)	NO (L3)	SD - 11; Dal - 3
2010	Pitt (W2)	GB (W2)	NE - 8; GB - 2
2011	NE (W8)	NYG (W2)	NE - 8; NO - 8
2012	?	?	Den - 10; Wash 6/GB & Sea 4 (entering Week 17)

So what does this data tell us? I believe it's easy for us to go with what we've seen most recently and make a blanket judgment on what will happen in the playoffs, but recent history shows that teams riding long winning streaks have little-to-no-advantage entering the playoffs. And it's important to keep in mind that many of these teams with the longer streaks (Pitt, both SDs, NE in '10) lost home games in the playoffs.

Before you go and place Denver into the Super Bowl, be wary of the potential obstacles and history they face when entering the playoffs.

Week 17 Picks

I honestly don't like much that's on the menu. 

For some reason, I'm believing in Dallas (+3.5) beating Washington this week. I'm also rooting on my Dallas 75/1 bet to win the Super Bowl to have some life entering January.

The other games that have an effect on the playoffs (GB -3.5 at Min, Chi -3 at Det), I have no read on.

KC +16 at Denver seems tempting - I don't think Denver is going to run up the score. Miami +10 seems like a good bet too - Belichick will likely bench starters at a certain point of their Week 17 game when they realize that they will not get a first-round bye. I don't think he cares if they fall to the fourth seed (in that spot, they'd face Indy, who they romped earlier this year) if they lost.

Tune in next week as I go to Vegas for my 30th birthday and make some bets while I'm there. I'll look to preview the NFL playoffs tomorrow night. I'm willing to bet one team from the Wild Card round will make the Super Bowl - just a matter of who.

A Letter to Santa - from a nearly 30-year old man

Dear Santa,

Now that your trek around the world has commenced, I'm sure you'll be a little too busy to read this, but whatever. Get around to it next week or beginning of 2013 when you've had a few days to rest off those billions of glasses of milk and even more billions of cookies. Good God, I hope you're not lactose intolerant. I feel sorry for Mrs. Claus.

Anyways...

I wanted to write to you today to let you know about a part of me that's been missing in my Christmases for many years now (perhaps 10 years, maybe a little less).

These people (and many additions since) are among many reasons why I will always love Christmas

It's not a loss of loving the holiday - I still love everything that comes from Christmas. The parties, people getting together, enjoying time with both sides of my family (I'm a lucky man to be able to say this) as well as new family I've been accepted into from my girlfriend's side.

I guess the part of Christmas that I haven't been able to feel in a while is the feeling of innocence, where your existence was never questioned, even though there were plenty of signs that pointed to Papa and Mama Claus living inside my home. While I didn't recognize it when I was younger, my dad's handwriting on a chalkboard that we got for a Christmas gift sticks out to me much later in life.

I miss the being young part, not being able to sleep till later at night because I was so excited to wake up to Christmas gifts. I'd always be the one who woke everyone up - my parents, my sister and brother.

Now? I go to bed my normal time on Christmas and then we all wake up when we feel like it. Not at the crack of dawn like when we were kids. Now, a little extra sleep is what I look forward to on Christmas, not the gifts.

Another group of people I'll always try to get together with on Christmases

Maybe I need to experience Christmas from a parent's point-of-view, where they get to experience the joys of their kids as they tear through their carefully wrapped presents (editor's note: if it was up to me, I'd continue to wrap my future kids gifts in newspaper, as you've seen on FB pictures of mine before).

Don't get me wrong Santa. I still believe in the idea of you, or at least the positive aspects that you bring to the table. Your jolly spirit brings hope and smiles to children around the world. While your shopping mall impersonators may not do you justice, the fact that kids wait in line to see you for hours tells you just how much they love the idea of you.

The idea of believing in something or someone (or in my case, the lack thereof) is perhaps what slowly but surely faded my kid-like enthusiasm for Christmas.

In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy the spirit of the holiday in other ways. I'll make sure to note the looks on my little cousin's faces when they open their gifts to soak in how I used to react to Christmases past.

Take care of yourself, stay in shape, and make sure not to pass too much gas in front of Mrs. Claus - she doesn't deserve that punishment.





All my best,

Brian

Week 16 & Big Props to Calvin Johnson

So much for Madden jinxes....

Congrats to Calvin Johnson on breaking my favorite wide receiver's receiving yards in a season - surprised Jerry Rice's record hasn't been broken with how pass-friendly the league has gotten. The only suspense left with him is whether he will get 2,000 yards (needs 108 yards), which with how he has been playing (and how little Detroit has to play for), doesn't seem all that suspenseful. I see him blowing by this record and getting up to about 2,050 yards, setting a record that he (and he alone) will have fun trying to chase for the next 5-10 years.

Also a big congrats to Adrian Peterson, who is within sniffing range of the rushing record thanks to his 212 yard performance in Week 15. He needs 294 yards in his last two games (against Houston & Green Bay) to top Eric Dickerson's 2105 yards, a record set almost 30 years ago. I'd love to see him get it - as far as watching RBs go, Peterson is probably my favorite one to watch (except when he's facing the Niners).

Anywho, onto Week 16 Picks:

Jax +14.5, Phil +6.5, Dal -2.5, SF +1.5

Considering: Ten +12.5, Min +7.5, Cin/Pitt Under 41.5

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year