A Numbers Analysis into Baseball's First Half of the Year

Not sure how many of you rely on the family of sports sites with "reference" in the title (baseball-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, etc.) for information. Myself, I love them all. I've been trying to use them more with my gambling exploits to find edges on matchups.

One stat that I'm going to look at for the second half of the baseball season is how important overall run differential is. Baseball-reference.com uses a Pythagorean formula for figuring out what a team's record "should" be based on a team's run differential throughout a season. For a more detailed formula on it, check it out here.


The idea of this formula was proposed by Bill James, who many sports nerds know as the mind behind Sabermetrics in baseball. It takes into account the perceived luck a team may be having (or not having). Some folks believe that winning by 1 or 2 runs is a thing that takes skill, but it's usually something that's supposed to even out over time. A team that wins consistently by larger margins is going to have a better chance of winning more games than a team that wins by a smaller amount for the margin of error involved.

I took a look at where each team who made/won a World Series since 1995 (the year wild cards were first used) ranked with this run differential stat to see what could be made of it, if anything. I also looked to see how far down each list you would have to go to find the worst team to make the playoffs:

Year	WS Winner (Pythagorean Rank)	WS Loser (PR)	Lowest Ranked Playoff	Top Team PR	Notable Teams PR records
2011	Stl (9th)	Tex (3rd)	9	Phil 103-59		30 teams
2010	SF (4th)	Tex (8th)	8	NYY 97-65		30 teams
2009	NYY (2nd)	Phil (5th)	11	LAD 99-63		30 teams
2008	Phil (3rd)	TB (5th)	12	Cubs 98-63		30 teams
2007	Bos (1st)	Col (4th)	16	Bos 101-61	Ariz 79-83 (div winner)	30 teams
2006	StL (16th)	Det (T 1st)	16	NYY/Det 95-67		30 teams
2005	ChW (5th)	Hou (7th)	9	StL 98-64		30 teams
2004	Bos (2nd)	StL (1st)	10	StL 100-62		30 teams
2003	Fla (11th)	NYY (2nd)	14	Sea 97-65		30 teams
2002	Ana (1st)	SF (4th)	12	Ana 101-61		30 teams
2001	Ariz (3rd)	NYY (5th)	9	Sea 109-53		30 teams
2000	NYY (13th)	NYM (8th)	13	SF (97-65)		30 teams
1999	NYY (3rd)	Atl (2nd)	9	Ariz (102-60)		30 teams
1998	NYY (1st)	SD (5th)	11	NYY (108-54)		30 teams
1997	Fla (7th)	Cle (9th)	12	Atl (103-59)	SF 80-82 (div winner)	28 teams
1996	NYY (8th)	Atl (2nd)	11	Cle (96-65)		28 teams
1995	Atl (2nd)	Cle (1st)	9	Cle (93-51)		28 teams

In the 17 World Series since the Wild Card format began, we can make note that the team who topped the run differential (Pythagorean formula) made the World Series in only 6 of 17 World Series, winning 3 of them). The 2nd ranked team has the exact same stats, winning 3 of the 6 World Series they have appeared in. A #1 vs #2 matchup has only happened twice, although in some cases it is not possible if the top 2 teams are from the same league.

Compare these numbers to the teams who barely sneak in or make it because they won a crappy division. Three teams with rankings in the double digits won the World Series, meaning that they made the most of making the playoffs. However, both teams that have entered the playoffs with a losing record (according to their PR) failed to make the World Series.

It should be noted that 24 of 34 teams who made the World Series in this time did finish in the Top 5 in PR record, so there is something to this - if you were a good team that won by a higher margin than other teams in a 162 game sample, then odds give you a better chance to succeed on average. In a 5 or 7 game series, crazy stuff can happen, so the occasional middle-of-the-road team who is lucky enough to make the playoffs will win it all (i.e. 2006 Cardinals, who finished 82-79 en route to having the worst winning percentage of any team to win a World Series).

2012

Using this year's statistics through July 4th, we can see where teams fit into this formula and what teams may be facing a regression and what teams could expect to have better records if their current numbers hold up for the second half of the season. I'll note the teams whose records would be 3+ games better or worse based on their perceived luck so far (according to the Pythagorean record) and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Colorado & Seattle should have 4 more wins than they actually do, but neither has a legitimate shot at the playoffs at this point.

Notable Teams That Should Improve (Records as of July 4)


Boston (Actual Record 42-40, 7 GB; PR 46-36) - Boston's offense cannot be ignored and would likely need to be the reason for Boston to make a run (none of their starters have ERAs below 4.00). If their pitching staff improves in the second half, it wouldn't be shocking to see them as one of the two Wild Cards.

St Louis (Actual 43-39, 2.5 GB; PR 47-35) - Like Boston, St Louis has been the victim of their pitching staff. The absence of Pujols hasn't hurt the Cardinals' offense at all, and I believe they can (and will) win the NL Central by year's end, although I'm in the camp that Lynn has probably peaked this year. Somehow, someway, I say they win the NL Central.

Philadelphia (Actual 37-46, 12 GB; PR 40-43) - Main reason that I even mention the Phillies is that their pitching always gives them a chance. The problem is that their staff isn't quite what it was last year, especially with Halladay on the shelf. Even though their record should only be 3 games better, it would be good enough for 8 games back in the division if this were the record to be used. It's unlikely they will overtake all 4 teams in the division to win it, but they could catch fire and be the second Wild Card

White Sox (Actual 44-37, first place; PR 47-34) - This shocked me, and in a good way. Their run differential indicates that the start of their season is legitimate and could actually be better. This may have been inflated from Tuesday's 19-2 romping of Texas, but nevertheless, the stats say the Sox are for real. Real enough to be considered a World Series contender. Their PR of 47-34 is tied for 2nd in the majors with the Yankees.

Notable Teams That Should Decline


Miami (Actual 39-42, 9 GB; PR 34-47) - Many think that Miami has underachieved so far this year (and you could make a case for that given their talent - I had them winning the World Series at the start of the year), but the numbers tell a different story. They are fortunate to be "only" 9 back and will likely tail further down if they continue with their current run differential.

San Fran (Actual 45-37, 0.5 GB; PR 42-40) - A team like San Fran is predicated on winning low scoring games, which obviously means they won't outscore their opponents by a high margin more often than not. If they can manage to continue doing so, then they could be one of those teams that enters the playoffs on the lower end of run differential and have a good chance to win short series simply on the strength of their rotation.

Baltimore (Actual 44-37, 5 GB; PR 38-43) - Right now, Baltimore would be the second Wild Card team. They have had the most luck, according to run differential, bettering what their actual record should be by 6 full games. If that corrects itself in the second half, then Baltimore will likely be facing a record along the lines of 82-83 wins - not bad for a team that's sucked so bad lately, but not good enough to make the playoffs.

Cleveland (Actual 42-39, 2 GB; PR 38-43) - I don't see Cleveland holding up in the second half of the year. I could see them fading to as low as fourth in the division.

Back To Busy-ness: The Halfway Point of Best Week of Summer

At the halfway point of the Busiest Week of 2012 (working title), and I'm still breathing...for now.

What happens at Whirlyball...

The week started with a great bachelor party that was even better than I thought it would be. I forgot how much fun my family and Jeff's friends (which are also my friends in an inherited sort of way) are to hang out with, especially with a few Summer Shandys in the blood stream. While I failed to succeed at both the Whirlyball and Casino portions of the day, I did succeed at enjoying my time with everyone who attended. Thanks again to those who came.

Sunday provided a little lull for me and Jen to enjoy some TV on our new couch. True Blood is in full bloom, which I am trying to get into. I'm not sure how much of the back story I need to know to get the plot. All I know is that the main character Sooki seems to cause as many problems as the broad with a similar name in another TV show that I will not acknowledge supposedly causes on a shore. I digress.

The before picture of Ribfest. Sadly, not much different than the after

Monday was my first Rib Fest experience. I wore the white t-shirt that I promised in my blog from last week's B-List. Unfortunately (in terms of Facebook and the general public), the shirt did not get messy. A large part of this had to do with my ordering of sandwiches (a double boneless riblet sandwich and a BBQ chicken sandwich) as opposed to ribs. The other part, which I didn't give much thought to until the day came, was the incredible heat that we faced. It made staying at a Rib Fest and eating more food, including messy ribs, too much of a chore. So we left, with nary a stain on the shirt to speak of, although Jen's brother did pour water on my nipples. So there's that.

On Tuesday, we traveled to the La Salle/Peru/Princeton area of the state, occupied by Jen's wonderful family, along with a bunch of billy's of hill decent. I had a great time swimming at Jen's aunt and uncle's, along with watching fireworks for the first time with Jen right along the Illinois River as I had to drink to not only blend in but also provide my body with the necessary liquids to replace the sweat. I don't want to hear from any smart people with common sense that drinking beer can't do that, so yeah. Great night with a great gal and her great family.

A family of which I got to meet another member about 14 hours ago. Jen's dad lives in Cherry, IL, a small IL town that has about 500 people and is best known for a coal mining disaster that claimed the lives of 250+ people in 1908. Driving through a small town like that makes me think that it's about how it must seem to drive through my old hometown of Crystal Falls in Michigan. In our limited time at his place, I engaged in some chat about baseball and sports in general. It was nice meeting him finally.

After this, the halfway point of the busy week ended with hanging out with my family - definitely a theme of both halves of the week. Family stuff was fun as always. I love them all. Jen and I left there before they left for fireworks though, only because I was worn out from everything that I mentioned above.

Also, I am going to a Sox game tomorrow in 900 degree heat, with about the best seats I've had in a while. I needed to save some of my remaining energy for that. The next four days, with the wedding of the summer as the highlight, prove to be just as eventful.

In the meantime, if anyone can think of a great nickname for the week that encompasses as much of our week as possible, I'd appreciate it. Some ones I have thought of:

Business in Front, Party in the Back (of the Week)

RIBbed for Our Pleasure: The Greatest Week of Summer 2012

Ok...on that note, I'm done. Good night everyone.

Busy B - The Week Ahead (List 7)

I planned on writing about the BCS stuff that happened earlier this week and how I think the new system will be even more of a joke, but that will have to wait for another time - I will get to this at some point.

Today's list is as self-centered as it could possibly get. This is a list of my favorite 7 things coming up in the next week. I will have the next week off of work for several reasons, some of which will be discussed below. I won't go too in depth about each one because frankly, I'm lazy and kinda rushing this blog.

Note - this does not include my brother's wedding, which is in 8 days.

7. White Sox game - July 5th: Yesterday, I decided to buy Jen and myself 2nd row seats along the first base line near where the ball girl (also known at US Cellular as a security officer) sits. I've had similar seats before, so that's why this doesn't go further down the list.

6. RibFest in Naperville: I've never gone to one of these things before, so I'm glad I'm able to go this year.  Jen and I are going with her brother and his fiance. I should wear a plain white shirt and record the proceedings. With how messy I am, it could be a video that goes viral.

5. Fireworks in Peru: I'm going to be catching a fireworks show at Jen's aunt and uncle's in a town in western Illinois (Peru). I say it like this because I'm not sure the average person knows much about this. It should be interesting to see if they do any better of a show than these other folks or if it lives up to my theory that most firework shows are the same (a fireworks racist, I am not). It'll be fun seeing fireworks with the g/f for the first time though.

4. Writing the Best Man Speech: I have yet to start this, although I have an idea of what I'm going to say. I need to keep my crowd in mind when writing it. Funny speeches are really hard to write, especially when you don't know half of the people.

3. Meeting Jen's Dad for the first time: I'm looking forward to meeting her old man. It's been a while coming.

2. Bachelor Party: I won't be that tool who uses the word EPIC to describe what tomorrow will be like, so anyways, tomorrow will be legend.....WAIT FOR IT.....dary. Yeah, I went there. It's not a complicated set-up: a party bus is driving us to whirlyball, then back to the casino in Joliet. With how exciting this day should be, how could this be only #2 if the wedding is not included?

1. Picking Up the Tux: Not sure why, but this action will get me in the ultimate wedding mood. Something about looking like a sexy beast in a tux does it. Also, the whole picturing myself standing next to my brother as he marries the girl of his dreams thing too.

It's going to be a great week. A great week.

B List: Agony of the Heat (List 6)

This LBJ didn't make any promises about Vietnam. Instead, the basketball version declared that he would win "not 5, not 6, not 7..." NBA titles. In their own ways, both Lyndon Johnson & LeBron James would find ways to vilify themselves with their own words.

One down, "not 6" to go for LBJ Jr. to live up to his words. His team did what many thought they were capable of, but were unlikely to do, at least this time around against a talented Oklahoma City Thunder squad that features some of the best collection of young talent that the NBA has seen in quite some time.

I thought the Heat would win based on their experience from last year, but I didn't think they would completely dismantle the Thunder. Outside of a poor second half in Game 1 and poor 1st quarter in Game 4, the Heat destroyed the Thunder on both ends of the floor. LeBron showed what happens when the most talented player in the NBA puts forth maximum effort to achieve his goal. It's a scary thought for NBA teams who have to face him in the next 6-7 years.

Below are 7 (not 5, not 6) thoughts concerning the Heat as to where they stand now and looking forward to what could be a prolonged run of championships for the most hated squad in the NBA.

7. The Eastern Conference looks like a cakewalk for the foreseeable future. I know most Bulls fans would disagree, but I think last year was their best chance in the Miami/LeBron era to make it to the Finals. Outside of Rose, the Bulls have no legit scorer that can create his own shot. Over the course of history, the NBA has shown itself to be a sport where you need at least 2 of the top 10/20 talents on a team to win titles.  If they don't land a big fish like Dwight Howard, I don't think they can reasonably beat the Heat in the near future. I think the Bulls have maximized their talents in each of the last two regular seasons.  Even if Rose comes back mid-season next year, I don't think he'll be all that sharp.

The Pacers are a team on the rise, but outside of Granger, they don't have a complimentary superstar (although Roy Hibbert is developing into a solid player). The Celtics' realistic window for title shots was 2008-2010. The Knicks may have the best shot of rising from the ashes outside of these teams in the East, but that may be a stretch.

If you look at it objectively, it could be easy to see the Heat winning the East for the next 4-5 years if the teams above don't make major roster moves.

6. They should consider moving Dwyane Wade.  I read this online earlier, and it made some sense. With how reckless and physical Wade has played in his 9 year career, his body has taken more of a toll than most of the same length career. In addition to missing 17 games this year due to injury, Wade has also missed significant time (20+ games in a year) in three other years due to injury. Wade's numbers don't show it yet, but I think there could be some value in trading him to get more depth, especially while he has some miles on the treads.

5. No matter how many titles they win, Coach Erik Spoelstra will never get any credit. There aren't too many coaches who could go under the radar or get as little of the team's credit as Spoelstra has. Many people (perhaps idiots) speculated that he would be canned if they didn't win a title this year. I don't know a whole bunch about him other than his unusual rise up the ladder from video editor to coach. I know Pat Riley loves the guy - not sure how unconditional that love would be if they fell short again though. This buys Spoelstra at least another two years - of which I believe the Heat to win at least one championship in that time (possibly both). I'm not sure if it's fair that he doesn't get much credit, but he should get some.

4. LeBron needs to stay hungry and continue to play with a chip on his shoulder. Look at what happened with Dallas this year. Dirk was so out of shape that his coaches recommended that he take time off during the season to get back into shape. I'm not sure if he didn't think there would be a season or what, but the way he entered this year gave people the impression that one title was enough for him. I definitely don't see LeBron having the same problem in terms of entering the 2012-13 season with a beer belly, but I do think he needs to find a way to avoid the post-first-title hangover that seemed to accompany Nowitzki. Look at how LBJ played in this year's playoffs - he took his game to a level that wasn't surprising given his talents, but surprised people given his recent bad fortune in the playoffs. It goes to show how talented LBJ is that "bad fortune" in your career means making it to 2 NBA Finals & a conference final before the age of 27. If he can stay hungry and not get a hangover, I believe the Heat (including this year) will win 4 or 5 out of the next 6 titles.

3. Outside of themselves, the biggest obstacle to a prolonged NBA title run for the Heat will be the Thunder. I believe that the Thunder will remain the best in the west for the next 3-4 years, presuming they keep their core of Durant, Westbrook & Ibaka (I think Harden will sign elsewhere for a max contract). It will be nearly impossible for the Thunder to maintain their current collection of talent given potential salary cap problems. To those who know basketball, superstars like Durant rarely win at a young age - it usually takes one or two lumps to the forehead to know what it takes to win the title. I do think Durant will win one or two titles in his career, but I think it may not be for a few more years.

2. The Heat winning the title was good for the NBA.  My friend Nick said he will continue to hate the Heat much like he hates the Yankees. I bet if you polled 100 random sports fans who their least favorite team in NBA/MLB was, the Heat and Yankees would be the frontrunners to win those titles. Think - what did it take for everyone to hate the Yankees so much? The answer: titles...and lots of 'em. If the Yankees currently had as many titles as the Cubs, do you think people would hate them as much? Sports fans tend to hate teams that have prolonged runs of success. People hated the Heat before they won anything, so you can only imagine now how much more they will hate the Heat if they go on a Bulls-like 6-of-8 run here. I believe this hate for the Heat will equal ratings gold for the NBA.

Unlike MJ, whose commercial appeal defined him more than his selfish, asshole attitude, LeBron doesn't have the same appeal with the mainstream media. I don't know if it's people still holding that bad 48-hour stretch of hosting a primetime show to declare where he was taking his talents and then stating how many titles he was going to win against him, but LeBron has taken the most shit from haters in the Twitter era of basketball. I think MJ should be lucky he didn't play in this social media era, because his attitude and personality would have gotten more exposure than it did back in the day, where it seemed like folks in the media were afraid to call out MJ on his discretions off the court.

1. My prediction: by the end of his career, LeBron will have as many titles as Jordan. While they won their first titles at the same age, LeBron also had a few more seasons underneath his belt. Both needed the help of other Hall of Fame/All-Star quality people around him to win it all (LBJ has Wade & Bosh, MJ had Pippen & Phil Jackson). Both needed to overcome the "so close, yet so far" feeling - LeBron losing to the Spurs & Mavs in separate NBA Finals, MJ being dominated by the Pistons for that three year stretch.

Once MJ got going, the only thing that really stopped him was his first brief retirement, which some conspiracy folks believe was a suspension for his gambling ways. In his last 6 full seasons with the Bulls, Jordan led them to titles, including setting a record for most wins in a year with 72 in 1995-96. I don't know if LeBron (or anyone) will ever beat this record, but I do believe LeBron, if surrounded with the right talent, can start a similar title run.

I know living in Chicago, we have the idea in our heads that MJ won these titles by himself - he didn't. Every superstar needs some semblance of talent around him to succeed on the biggest stage. I think the core of LBJ & Bosh (assuming my scenario above plays out and Wade ends up getting traded) would be as good of a starting point as anybody in the NBA for a prolonged run of titles.

Much of this stuff above is opinion and speculation, so feel free to dissect it. I'm not always the best when it comes to predicting what will happen.

All I know is, whether you hate the Heat or not, you better be ready to see them in the last two series of the NBA playoffs every year for a while.

Moving On After Moving Out - A Reflection of Life After Three Weeks On My Own

It's the same place, but it isn't.

The roads all run the same directions that they always have, but driving down them almost feels like driving through a foreign area for the first time.

The faces look at me the same, but the way I look at them is much different than before.

In the three weeks I've been away from the place that I called home for almost 27 years, I've briefly visited there about twice a week. Each time I go back, a slow but steady progression towards this place not feeling like home sinks in.

Don't get me wrong, it has nothing to do with the people or pets that live there. They couldn't be any better of a family than one could ask for. I think this feeling has more to do with my new place feeling like an actual home.

With a nice living room set-up (about to get a step closer to complete with the rest of the furniture being delivered on Saturday), a nice comfy bed that me and the lady share (oh, and the cats share as well), and more and more things to call my own (like the beautiful grill), I think having a place of my own as well as owning some particular items for the first time is making me feel more independent. As a result, I feel like this place is home now, not the place in Oak Forest.

I admit, it's weird to go back home and see that my old room is already occupied by my sister, who had the room repainted and also adjusted the bed to a different spot of the room. This overhaul of life back at my old home is making me realize that I am happy with my new home.

It is weird seeing the faces of my family and realizing that I am just a visitor in their home. It doesn't change my love of them, but I can't help it for saying that it does change the way I view my relationship with them. Now more than ever, I view my moving out as a chance to have a new relationship with them, one where I talk to them on the phone or share talks with them online (except for my dad - I'd love to see him telling me all about his metal detecting adventures while talking on Facebook).

I look forward to this new relationship with them and the place I used to call home. I also look forward to having them as regular visitors in our home.

What's 55 inches that me and my girlfriend both love equally?

Our TV, you perverts.

As the NBA season closes its doors on the 2012 in the next week, I will be losing half of the sports that are currently in season that I somewhat care about - baseball being the other.

This will be bad news for the relationship that me and the large-and-in-charge 55" TV have developed since I moved in on June 1st. It will also be bad news for my good luck in betting on the playoffs, which seems to happen more often than not for some reason. (Although, the novice gambler in me says it's probably a good thing that my gambling outlets will be shut down).

It will be good news for someone though - you guessed it: the girlfriend!

From next week until football season starts, yours truly will likely cut back on my sports watching consumption. I guess this is really nothing new - as the NBA winds down every year, baseball remains the only competitive sport in its regular season for a couple of months that I give a crap about.

But with having the new TV, I feel like I need to be watching sports on it twice as much as before. I figure - this TV is about twice as large as the one I have downstairs; hence, twice the sports consumption. Will I watch more baseball on TV than before? I'd say likely, particularly on Saturdays when the lady is at work and the Fox game of the week is on.

With less sports on, Jen and I won't have to argue about who gets to watch the big TV and who has to watch the tiny, puny, pathetic TV in our room (ok, it's just tiny, puny and pathetic compared to the living room TV). So far during our time here, I've had the luxury of many evenings watching the last two rounds of the NBA playoffs while the lady has cooped herself in the bedroom watching her shows. I'll probably end up watching a few of these shows that she watches on demand, like True Blood & Game of Thrones as the summer commences and the sun sets on the NBA.

Once football season begins, it'll be another 17-week tour of duty over at Tim's and his version of the Big 3 - his 70" and two 32" TVs. I can't wait to watch games on the LeBron of his TVs, just as long as it never randomly turns itself off in the fourth quarter of a close game! (Zing - even I can find a time to lamely make fun of LeBron!). Had to get that reference out while I still can - dude has been playing unreal this playoff season.

A playoff season that I've been able to enjoy the past three weeks thanks to the luxury of my gigantic television. Soon, it will be relegated (and hopefully not fall asleep on itself) to several months of baseball and perhaps whatever golf or tennis major happens to be going on at the time.

I can't wait for that first NFL game and first college football Saturday of watching the early non-conference action. Until then, to the TV, I say - it's been nice knowing you. Jen will take good care of you to make up for the times I leave a dragged out baseball game on for too long.

B List - What's Your Fantasy: Favorite Fantasy Football Fings (List 5)

Ever since my work for the day has been done this evening, I've been in fantasy football mode. I just set up the fifth installment of the league I am commissioner of: Super Bowlek Nothing gets a bunch of football nerds going like discussing how awesome their fantasy football teams are doing or who they drafted a month before the league started.

In this blog, I'll discuss the newest B-list item: my favorite things about fantasy football, from studying to in-season stuff, in no particular order, but numbered anyways:

(7) Increased Football Awareness - I appreciate how much more people are aware of second-string running backs on teams that they would not normally follow. People watch more games and more coverage of the games than ever before. Some of that has to do with gambling, but the spike in ratings lately has to be more fantasy football related. People are watching more and becoming more aware of things going on in a game. The only thing I don't care about this is that it becomes all about fantasy and can't take enjoyment out of a good game if your player isn't doing so hot. This is a pet-peeve of mine for people who gamble as well. I've been able to find a good balance between betting and simply enjoying a game - I'd like people to do this for regular games as well.

(6) Beer -  Don't get me wrong, I enjoy having a few cold ones a few times a week, but something about enjoying a good beer during the draft process seems American to me. This year will be no exception.

(5) Dumb Moves - There's always that one person in your league who makes some bad moves that leaves everyone questioning the integrity of the league (or quite the opposite: makes people happy the person is in the league). I have weeded out most of the folks who would do this, as I'd like my league to be as competitive as possible. But there's no avoiding it. It makes the league more interesting when there's at least one dumbass in it.

(4) Constant Checking of Fantasy Scores - It's hilarious to see people get worked up about their team's score from the opening kick at noon until the Monday Night game is complete. With more Thursday night games this year, this process will be extended a little longer in the week. I am one of these people when my teams are good. Last year, all of my money league teams sucked, so I didn't follow my teams as religiously. If things change this year, I will likely be one of these idiots again.

(3) The Afternoon of the Draft - I don't know why, but I've gotten the biggest kick out of setting up all the seats for the draft, buying the draft board and stickers, and all that other jazz. When it comes to fantasy football and all the leagues I enter, I take the most pride in my league, so I try organizing and setting it up as best as I can.  

(2) Watching the NFL Games W/ Friends -  I enjoy watching people's reactions to every play that their fantasy player takes part of. If their running back fumbles the ball, the profanities that come out of my friends' mouths is enjoyable to say the least. People (including myself) get way too serious about their fantasy football teams, to the point where it becomes annoying about 98% of the time fantasy football comes up as a topic of conversation. Yet, for some reason, I still love this aspect of it. Guess I'm a glutton for punishment.

(1) The Draft Itself - Nothing beats the actual composition of your team, from first pick to last. Not only that, but the bickering, yelling and teasing that comes from the draft are always priceless moments. Anyone who has never done an in-person draft and who is a big fantasy football person, I recommend doing one just to experience it once. I believe you will like it better than doing the draft in person and never want to go back. I am to the point where I do three drafts per fantasy season in person and I really don't want to do it online anymore.