Blind Fate

It's funny how life works out...

One minute, you're saying good-bye to a family member (rest in peace Grandma). Next minute (more specifically, a week later), you're saying hello to a new one (Hello Amber and Zipsie family!)

It's a reminder that every now and then, it's as if the Even Steven theory exists. Not to say a death is equivalent to bringing someone new into the family. Just that when something is lost, you may find a version of it somewhere else.

Or maybe it's just coincidence how the timing of the two works. It's probably just life at work. I really don't know what it is, but I do think life plays out in a tragically funny way sometimes.

For every loss that you experience in whatever sense of life (whether it be the passing of someone or just losing a job or the like), there is a potential gain right around the corner. We can't let loss blind us from this fact. I learned last year that some of the mistakes I made were meant to happen because they led me into a new life (new job, school, new friends, etc.) that I currently enjoy.


I guess saying all of this makes me sound like a fortune cookie or a motivational speaker, but screw it.


If you find yourself down - keep your head up and your eyes open. You never know what awaits next.

Derb(y) Your Enthusiasm: Reflecting on a Moment with Grandma

While the memories of Grandma are still fresh in everyone's mind, one in particular sticks out.

Almost a year ago today, the running of the 2010 Kentucky Derby was hours from starting. I was heading to the gym for a workout and decided I would go to a local off-track betting to place my horse bets for the day. I threw $10 each on a couple of double digit horses (10/1 odds or worse) and then decided to throw $20 on Calvin Borel's horse- Super Saver. After I made my decision on a horse, I remembered that Grandma had no chance of going up to an OTB herself, so I gave her a call to see who she liked. Grandma liked Super Saver as well and wanted me to throw $2 on him to win. I told her not to worry about the cost of the ticket- my treat.

The bets were placed, and by race time, Super Saver was at 8/1. The race started, and the horse wasn't immediately in front - but that's how Borel prefers it. That's actually how I like my horses to be too. Being too far ahead at the start of the race usually signals a slow down at the end of the race. Give me a good closer anytime over a strong starter (at least in racing). I digress.

Super Saver rode the rail to a victory, which caused me to erupt in a euphoric cheer. But my greatest moment came from the moments after the race, when my grandma called and wanted to share her happiness over her $16 profit with the win. Her call pushed me to cash the ticket earlier than I had planned. After collecting the $180 (money put in + profits reaped from horse), I gave my dad the $18 that she was owed for her pick.

The next race, we disagreed on who we liked - my grandma stuck with Borel's horse while I went in the direction of Lookin' at Lucky. Surprisingly, my pick bested grandma's.

But the one moment last May, hearing enthusiasm in my soon-to-be-90 year old grandma's voice was a moment I'll never forget.

Bets for this year


Betting to win: Dialed In ($50 at around 3/1 odds),  Archarcharch ($10 at around 10/1 odds - splitting it $5/5 with a friend, whose Dad's name is the same as the jockeys, Mucho Macho Man $10)
Betting in exacta box: Dialed In and Twice the Appeal, $5 box.


I will watch the Kentucky Derby and will remember back to a year ago - when my Grandma and I shared a moment that no one else could share.

If They Don't Hit, Must You Acquit?

Sox and Twins binary game score looks like a computer nerd's dream, but a fantasy baseball offensive nightmare.

"I don't want no hits, cuz a hit is a ball that ain't get glove from me".

If TLC rewrote their song "No Scrubs" for baseball purposes, we might get something like that. Speaking of no hits, the White Sox managed to get as many hits today as Dustin Diamond's webpage. Francisco Liriano threw his first career complete game, striking out a pedestrian two batters and walking six. I first paid attention to the lack of hits around the 6th inning, when 0s were lined up like Cheerio's in a bowl.

Being down 1-0 from the 4th inning on, there was never a point in the game, where we didn't have the game-tying, go-ahead, or game-winning batter in the box on offense. However, I was faced with a sports person's conundrum:

"Do I root for a no-hitter or do I root for my team to win?"

It seems like an easy question to answer. You root for your team to win, no questions asked.

An aside: keep in mind that entering the game, only 269 no-hitters (retrosheet.com) have been thrown in the 396,126 games played in baseball history (baseball-reference.com), dating back to 1876. The odds of you seeing a no-hitter at any random game in history is 0.00067% chance. And now, my brother and I have seen 2 of the 270 (almost 1% of the no-hitters thrown in) in the history of baseball.

In the early part of me noticing the no-hit bid, I was definitely on the side of wanting them to win, but a small part of me said, screw it, I wanna see a no-hitter.

After the 8th inning came and went without a hit and we were still down 1-0, I started to move into the camp of "I want to see a no hitter", with "I want the only hit to be a walk-off home run" in 2nd place.

The Twins' 9th inning went without a hitch offensively, leaving Liriano to face the 9-1-2 part of the Sox order. After a quick first out, Liriano put Pierre on base with his 6th and final walk of the game before retiring the next two guys and capping off the no-hitter. An awkward celebration of what we just saw ensued, celebrating a rare event in baseball that happened against your team. I had (and still have) no clue on how I should have acted in that scenario.

Do you root for the no-no to see history? Or do you always root for your team to ruin it, no questions asked? Or does it depend on how much your team is trailing by? I think cheering against your team in a no-hitter where you're losing 8-0 would be easier to do than in a 1-0 game.

In any regard, seeing such a rare event at a baseball game would seem to outweigh the rooting for your team to muster out a hit, unless of course you're needing that game to make the playoffs or are in the playoffs when that event is happening against you.

To leave you with random facts and awesome numbers:

The odds of hitting all 6 numbers in a 52 ball lottery is 1 in 20,358,520, or 0.0000049%.

My friend Tim has now seen a no-hitter, triple play, batter hit for cycle and 4 HRs by a player in a game.

All stats as of Tuesday

Total games, MLB history	396,126	Likelihood of seeing one (%)
Occurrences of…
No-hitters	269	0.000679077
Cycles	291	0.000734615
Triple Plays	684	0.001726723
4 HR games	15	3.78667E-05
*editor's note: My math was severely flawed on his odds. For a link on the breakdown of being able to see all 4 of these, here's Jason Lyen's breakdown of probability.
Likelihood of seeing all 4	3.26181E-14	(or 0.00000000000326%)

QB or not QB: The Cynical Views of a 49ers Fan

Not much since the Jeff Garcia era has gone right for the San Francisco 49ers - from the numerous coaching changes to the botched QB decisions. No matter how you dice it, as a #1 pick, Alex Smith has failed to become the franchise guy that any team who drafts a QB with the top selection should expect. Yet....for some reason, the Niners/Harbaugh want to bring the model of inconsistency back into the fold for next year. I guess it makes some sense, given the lack of practice time that any new QB, including Colin Kaepernick, would have due to the lockout.

On the bright side (and the only bright side) I can find about bringing Smith back is that he finally may have a competent offensive mind to work with. Harbaugh had a big hand in developing Andrew Luck into the future 2012 #1 pick (barring injury) and also putting Stanford football on the map in a very short amount of time, capping off his last season with the Cardinal in a very impressive romping of V-Tech.

With the drafting of a new QB, you'd think I'd be happier, given the impending end of the Alex Smith era and the hope of success with the young guy. However, Kaepernick enters the NFL on similar terms as Smith did: both men played on offenses in college that make for a difficult transition into the pro game. Smith played under the tutelage of Urban Meyer while Meyer was still an up-and-coming coach for Utah. Meyer emphasized the "spread offense", which usually uses 4-5 receiver sets to space out defenders and give the offense more room to run and pass. In college systems like this, the QB used is often quick and usually has an option to run or pass. Here are Smith's statistics in his junior year, after which he declared for the NFL draft:

• 32 TDs, 4 Ints in 317 attempts for 2952 yards, completing over two-thirds of his passes in the process
• 135 attempts for 631 yards (deceiving because in college, they count sacks as negative rushing yards), 10 TDs rushing

Comparably, Kaepernick just finished his college stint at Nevada playing in the Pistol formation, which is almost a merger of the shotgun and the I formation, except it's just 1 running back behind the QB as he stands in shotgun. Like Smith, Kaepernick's system emphasized the option as a big part of its offense, resulting in some well-rounded Smith-like stats for CK's senior year campaign:

• 22 TDs, 8 picks in 359 passes for 3022 yards, completing about 65% of his passes
• 173 attempts for 1206 yards (7 yards/carry) for 20 TDs

In each man's last seasons, both contributed exactly 42 TDs (roughly 3.5 per game), with Smith having the edge in passing efficiency and Kaepernick literally running away with the rushing title between the two. Both men had similar yardage and completion totals. Both men also took great advantage of the systems that allowed them to put up the stats that they did.

However, it remains to be seen whether Kaepernick will fall prey to the system QB problem that Smith had. Lining up under center is a lot different than in an option-based shotgun formation, which could never work in the NFL due to the speed of the game. I do think that both quarterbacks will benefit from having a former QB coaching them.

If neither can succeed with this guy as coach, then forget about it. Personally, the inevitable signing of Alex Smith is puzzling, but since it is inevitable, I'd like to see both the new coach and the motivation of a draft pick to light a fire under his ass to give Smith a decent chance at improvement.

Time will tell, and hopefully time will allow this to play out as scheduled. I wish whatever QB plays this year the best, and hopefully the best results in our first division championship since Mooch was coach.

NBA Playoffs - Round 2

As the NBA Playoffs first round comes to an end, there have been some surprises, at least to Joe Public:

• Chicago had its hands full, albeit in only 5 games, vs Indiana. Four out of the five games ended competitively. It may have been the best thing to happen to the Bulls, who got a taste of what NBA playoff basketball is all about - rough, tough, grind-it-out
• After being throttled last year by the Magic, the Hawks weren't given much chance to win their series, including yours truly. Atlanta did exactly what they needed to do to win the series: win one road game and hold their own at home. I think the Bulls should be happy they don't have to face Howard- considering that the Indiana bigs seemed to have their way with the Bulls
• Miami disposed of Philly in 5. Philly's fight in the series shouldn't be a surprise, but they just don't have the talent Miami has.
• Boston aimed to make my Knicks prediction to win the series an ugly guess. And ugly might be an understatement. What a bad bad guess. Boston showed its playoff pride off in fashion, setting up the best series of the young playoffs with their matchup against the Heat.
• OKC win their first playoff series in their young franchise history, edging the Nuggets in three close matchups on their way to a 4-1 series win. I feel confident in OKC making it to the conference finals even more so than before.
• Dallas win in 6 in what first appeared to be a series where the home team would win all 7 games until Dallas ruined that pattern in 6. Dallas survived a game 4 meltdown by coming out strong in games 5 and 6 to close out the series.
• Lakers don't get any style points (at least to start) in their series win against the Hornets, but luckily this isn't gymnastics. They did close out the series well after playing to a 2-2 draw to start the series, throttling New Orleans in the final two games. The Laker switch is officially on.
• Memphis looks to become the first 8 seed in about 5 years to win a series (since the Warriors upended the Mavericks in 6 games)

So all of this leads up to 2nd round predictions, which if they were anything like my 1st round predictions, will probably be horsecrap and instant fade material:

• Miami vs. Boston (Bookmaker series odds: Miami -195/Boston +165): While this series may open up the 2nd round action, in the realm of fan interest, would be the main event match/series. Boston took the season series from Miami (as every good team aside from the Lakers seemed to do), downing Miami in 3 of 4 games. My guess for Miami being a decent favorite here would haveA to do with home court, but Boston is more than capable of winning on the road against them. This has the makings of a fantastic series to watch. I say they split the first two games in Miami, then the next two in Boston. From there, I got home court playing the role in the winner. Prediction: Heat in 7 games.
• Chicago vs. Atlanta (Bookmaker series odds: Chicago -900/Atlanta +650): These odds seem too steep for the Bulls here, although they did dominate the Hawks in 5 out of the 6 halves of basketball (only bad half resulted in the Bulls' lone loss vs Hotlanta). Atlanta took care of business in all three of their home games against Orlando in the last series. The Bulls, unlike Orlando, will not lose a home game in the series and will probably steal a game in Atlanta. Prediction: Bulls in 5 games.
• Los Angeles vs. Dallas (Bookmaker series odds: Lakers -380/Mavs +320): I'm not as sold on the Lakers as I thought I'd be at this point. They did close the last series like only the Lakers can. I think the Mavs will give the Lakers problems, particularly with the depth that they have. At the end of the day, I can't fade Kobe. Prediction: Lakers in 7.
• Oklahoma City vs. Memphis/San Antonio (Series odds: N/A): Since I want to beat the clock by getting all of my series predictions out there now, I'll be forced to project each team's chances against OKC. The Spurs would be a slight favorite over the Thunder if only for home court advantage and playoff experience, whereas Memphis would be an underdog in the +225/250 for the series. Either way, nothing that I've seen from OKC in their 5 game tilt against Denver makes me change my mind about them. My only worry is that Westbrook is a chucker, so Durant better make sure to shoot, shoot, shoot (and maybe shoot more) as he always does. I believe the Thunder will take the next step (as a franchise) against whoever they play. Prediction: OKC in 6 (against either team).

These predictions shouldn't come as a shock to anyone who read my NBA playoff preview. I'm not one so stubborn to go against previous predictions, but everything I've seen from the teams I had in my NBA Final Four has me believing that each will continue on their current paths.

Peace out.

Ain't She Grand (The Bolek Matriarch)

Virginia Nielsen Bolek was a mother of five and a wonderful wife.
A grandma and great-grandma to many a life.
We can't judge her worth simply on her years on Earth,
But also the memories we will carry as we have since birth,

Of a wonderful woman who carried the name Bolek into what it is today.
A proud family with rich traditions that will stay
Around for milleniums to come
A family that is immense but will always be a unit of One.

While only some of us can claim her as a Grandma, great-grandma or Mom,
She was a mom who was great and grand to us all.
She will remain with us forever and ever.
She will be there with us when we rise and fall.

And rise and fall again, from beginning to end.
An angel over our shoulder when we need a friend.
She is what every family would want with its matriarch.
She led a life that left an indelible mark.

She will always be here, to make sure we are ok.
Day and night, night and day.
Let us not mourn her loss today, but rather celebrate her life.
By being the best children, fathers and mothers, husbands and wives

That we can be. Let's live out her memory.
It's the way she would want it to be.
Today, let's celebrate Virginia Bolek for what she was and what she will be-
A beacon of a Bolek & Nielsen - from now until eternity.

I'm With The Band (wagon): How Do You Know Who is Who?

The past couple of hockey playoff seasons, I've observed the sudden rise in the Blackhawks. And while most people in my position (not a hockey fan and not really part of the wagon or true Hawks fan) wouldn't give a crap, I've always wondered if there's an easy way to spot out a bandwagoner from a true fan.

Are there certain signs that I should be looking for from the bandwagoners that wouldn't be seen in a true fan? Would quizzing people on the team's past (like anything from beyond the past 4-5 years) prove anything in their status? Are there certain jerseys that bandwagoners have that are considered too trendy for a "true" Hawks fan to get? I'm actually legitimately asking these questions, because I have no clue as an outsider to observes a plethora of Hawks love on social media - and while I know some of them are true fans, I also know there are some who are following the Hawks (much like some folks following the Bulls) because it's the cool thing to do.

I'm sure you (whoever reads this as a Hawks fan) know who, among your group of friends and "friends" on facebook, is a true fan. My question to you is: how do you distinguish between a true fan and a bandwagon?

If any of you have answers to this, I'd welcome some comments on the subject.

Big sports day in Chicago Tuesday. Buckle up where ever you watch the games.

-B