The NFL draft is less than two days away. This year doesn't present as many great names as last year's class did. The Lucks, RG3's and Richardsons will make way for Geno Smith and other players considered less talented than their elders a year older.
So instead of projecting who each team will draft, I decided to figure out who each team would draft as a coach, assuming all coaches were made free agents. For the purposes of this coach draft, I will not allow for drafting of coaches who are not already coaches. Otherwise, the Oakland Raiders may wreck the curve and draft a high school coach with a great 40 speed.
Without further ado...we have Kansas City on the clock. Many mock drafts have the Chiefs taking Jim Harbaugh, whose mere presence has overturned a proud 49ers franchise from the depths of mediocrity into what looks to be a perennial winner.
"With the first pick in the 2013 Coaches Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...Jim Harbaugh from the University of Michigan".
Great pick. Many in the green room are shocked that Belichick wasn't the first off the board, but the Chiefs are going with the hot up-and-comer with the raw skills. In his couple stints as a coach on both the college and pro levels, Harbaugh has experience in getting the most out of his quarterbacks. And wouldn't you know, the Chiefs traded for Alex Smith this offseason. This coaching pick couldn't have worked out any better. In addition to his coaching experience with Smith, Harbaugh has a speedster in the form of Jamaal Charles to work with. We've seen the kind of turn-around the Niners had in his two seasons. Expect to see the Chiefs contending for a playoff spot next year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock. This pick seems to be academic. Before Shad Khan can have anyone second guess themselves, he runs to hand the envelope to Goodell himself.
"With the second pick in the 2013 Coaches Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select...Bill Belichick from Hoodie U."
Playing the best on the board card, the Jags are desperate for a coach who can lead them to consistent playoff berths. More than that, this team needs someone to save it from becoming a casualty of empty seat syndrome. He's going to need a lot of help gutting this roster, but trust that he will get the right offensive pieces in place to be competitive in 3-4 years. And if they don't, the hoodie he wears will become an easy way for him to hide.
Now, the draft room eagerly awaits the ghost of Al Davis, who has ascended from his suite in hell to make his annual April appearance in New York City. Will the Raiders disappoint? Let's find out.
"With the third pick in the 2013 Coaches Draft, the Oakland Raiders select....Jim Schwartz from Georgetown University."
And there is no disappointment here, except for Raiders fans (remember them, Al?). The Ghost of Davis was said to be in the market for a coach whose attributes the attitude of a Raider, and what better coach to draft than the one whose squads have led the world in penalties on and off the field in the past couple years. Davis felt shamed that his franchise was rising in the ranks of sportsmanship - hence the drafting of Schwartz. With his lack of NFL experience, Marc Trestman was considered to be a heavy favorite to be drafted here, but his successful background in Canada prevented The Ghost of Davis from making a move.
The Eagles have the fourth pick. With their cluster of likely-to-underachieve QBs, one pick makes perfect sense here. And no, it's not Andy Reid, nicknamed by some rude waiters as "Andy Feed" for his penchant of clearing all-you-can-eat buffets in 45 minutes from local restaurants.
Nope, the Eagles are likely going the route of another husky coach. Since we're not allowed to tip the picks on Twitter, I'll let you "figure" it out.
"With the fourth pick in the 2013 Coaches Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select...Rex Ryan from Southwestern Oklahoma State University."
Who knows better how to handle a stable of mediocre QBs than Ryan, as noted by last season's miserable Jets campaign. Whether it was a butt fumble or completely ignoring the cat calls for Tim Tebow, Ryan did all he could to campaign for a seat in a Lovie Smith presidency, basically telling naysayers to fuck off and saying "Sanchez is our quarterback." (did you just say 'fuck off?' We're on air!). Don't worry, everyone tuned me out anyways.
And for the cheese steak shops worried about profit margins going down with Reid out of town, you can breathe a sigh of relief. You still have a rotund man as the coach for the Eagles.
Back to the picks. The Lions are the first team to draft without their original coach at the helm. What to do, what to look for. Rod Marinelli isn't available, much to the dismay of Detroit paper bag manufacturers. And they can't draft another wide receiver (sorry Mike Williams and Charles Rodgers).
The Lions look to be hesitating on their pick. They might take the full 15 minutes to make it. And just in the nick of time, the Lions submit their pick to the commish.
"With the fifth pick in the 2013 Coaches Draft, the Detroit Lions select...Sean Payton from Eastern Illinois University"
Everyone is shocked at this pick - shocked that the Lions made a great pick! Fresh off of his year-long suspension for his role in the bounty scandal, Payton's value increased tremendously. The Saints' drop off was largely credited to the absence of Payton, who made New Orleans into a perennial playoff contender. Payton may look to bring with him Gregg Williams in an effort to set an unbreakable record for penalties and penalty yards in a season.
Since you probably stopped reading (or mainly because I can't see myself doing this for 27 other teams), I will simulate the rest of the coaching picks and give a little blurb on each.
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Jim Harbaugh
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bill Belichick
3. Oakland Raiders - Jim Schwartz
4. Philadelphia Eagles - Rex Ryan
5. Detroit Lions - Sean Payton
6. Cleveland Browns - Mike Tomlin (knows the AFC North better than anyone, will overtake Pittsburgh)
7. Arizona Cardinals - Jason Garrett (Cardinals thought they had to draft a former QB for coach. Simple misunderstanding)
8. Buffalo Bills - John Harbaugh (how did the SB winning coach slip this far? He's just glad to be picked up by Buffalo before the Jets swooped him up)
9. NY Jets - Tom Coughlin (in an unusual twist for the severely punctual coach, Coughlin shows up 20 minutes late to his press conference. The first of many signs that show that the more things change, the more the crazy shit stays the same).
10. Tennessee Titans - Jeff Fisher (the city where he started welcomes him back with open arms, now that the Titans are ready for another 12 year stretch of playing for second place to the Colts)
11. San Diego Chargers - Marvin Lewis (disappointed that Norv Turner wasn't available to keep around for another five years of underachieving, the Chargers went with the most tenured coach who hasn't accomplished as much as his resume may seem. San Diego is hoping Lewis can cut back on his playoff appearances to keep with the annual tradition of pretending to show a pulse in December to save the ass of their coach.
12. Miami Dolphins - Mike Shanahan (as Shanahan looks to make a stop at every team who drafted a QB in 2012. Tannehill - watch your knees: you're fucked)
13. NY Jets - Greg Schiano (the league is aware that the Jets have two coaches but believe it provides them no competitive advantage. In trading Revis to the Bucs, it was only fair to get their coach who knows a thing or two about how to play till the very end, even if the game has already been decided. Somehow, the Jets thought it'd be a good idea for Schiano to coach w/ Coughlin, who was furious at Schiano's bull rush when Eli kneeled down. In other news, Goodell ok'ed Revis being player/coach/perennial whiner of being underpaid for Tampa Bay)
14. Carolina Panthers - Ron Rivera (the first team to draft the same coach they already had. Whispers around the league suggest the Panthers were just too lazy to figure out the names of the other coaches remaining in the draft)
15. New Orleans Saints - Mike McCarthy (The Saints are looking to score and allow the most points in NFL history. They have a good shot w/ McCarthy at the helm).
16. St. Louis Rams - John Fox (They figured he had the same initials as Jeff Fisher, so all the legal documents that required a J.F. can remain in tact. One problem solved.)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Rob Chudzinski ("We showed you," Rooney says to Browns brass for taking their old coach. A world where the Browns have a better coach than Pittsburgh - now you know this is a fictional writing)
18. Dallas Cowboys - Gus Bradley (Jerry Jones needed to find the most likely guy to pin blame on when the free agents, draft picks and trades he makes go sour. Since Garrett was shockingly picked earlier in the round, Jones was scrambling for a scapegoat. A guy named Gus - sounds like a winner in Jerry's book.)
19. NY Giants - Chuck Pagano (W/ Pagano's defensive background, the move makes perfect sense. Not too often that sentence has been uttered in this grueling round of draft picks).
20. Chicago - Marc Trestman (C'est la vie! The Bears are tres excited to get their coach back in the draft.)
21. Cincinnati - Andy Reid (He lasted this long? Cincy wants another coach they can tenure to .500 stardom)
22. Washington - Pete Carroll (The Rams traded their draft pick back to the Skins, who were somehow able to get the rising coach this late. The only catch: the guy whose nasty injury came at the hands of his old team will not be behind center for a while. Revenge - a dish best served cold)
23. Minnesota - Bruce Arians (an overachieving coach unites w/ an overachieving team)
24. Indianapolis - Gary Kubiak (He has the experience to take an AFC South team to first place finishes as he desperately coaches for his job)
25. Seattle - Chip Kelly (Minnesota traded back the pick, and what a fitting pick for the Seahawks. A successful Pac-12 coach succeeding another former Pac-12 coach. With Wilson, Harvin & Lynch, the former Oregon coach invents offenses that can only be understood when looking from space.)
26. Green Bay - Joe Philbin (Phibin's old ties to Green Bay make this move a perfect fit).
27. Houston - Lezlie Frazier (For the Texans, their choices were a bunch of guys named Mike, or a guy with a girl's first name. They chose the latter)
28. Denver - Mike McCoy (His background with the Broncos helps w/ this picks. What also helps: there's like no one else available)
29. New England - Mike Munchak (Brady helps Munchak become the next "greatest coach in NFL history who sucked at his previous gig")
30. Atlanta - Mike Smith (could this guy be any more disrespected? falls all the way back to his old team)
31. San Francisco - Doug Marrone (the 49ers flipped a coin with the remaining two coaches. Marrone was tails)
32. Baltimore - Dennis Allen (hey, he was the only guy left. Not Flacco's fault)
Showing posts with label mock draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mock draft. Show all posts
8/17/2012
B List - Fantasy Football Draft Tips (List 14)
Hi, my name is Brian, and I have a fantasy football problem.
No, the problem isn't that I'm currently in six fantasy leagues (four of which are for money). No. The fantasy football problem is that I'm not the defending champion in any of them. Granted, two of the leagues are new. But still - it's my fault for not winning them before being in the leagues or before they were actually created.
Anywho, since I'm in leagues with many of you, I'll give you my thoughts on how I approach these leagues. Perhaps they will help you, or perhaps they will turn you into a (bigger) loser. I can't tell you who to pick, or even any of my sleepers. Perhaps if Yahoo or NFL.com paid me to give a fantasy opinion, I would. But since neither of them do, all I can give you is my approach to each draft.
7. Don't over-study - There's numerous sites that offer their fantasy football opinions. Some opinions cancel each other out. Other opinions are based on group-think ("hey, this publication says this guy is gonna be a rising star, better have him ranked high). The truth is, a lot of it is guess work. You can study stats, fantasy magazines and rankings all day long, but all of the information you consume could overwhelm you - if you're studying up on these players too hard. Just use your best judgment when it comes to players and their situations. It doesn't hurt to do a mock draft or two, but you probably don't need to do 9 or 10 of them.
6. Don't stress about bye weeks - That's not to say it should be completely ignored, but if you're the type to draft a guy based solely on his bye week (say a backup QB for your Brady or Rodgers), you're going about it wrong. Think about how much turnover you have from the time you draft until the very end of the season. Odds are, about half of your team will be different. No use in picking a guy because he's not on Bye Week 8 when your top guy is playing when you're likely to drop the guy anyways for an emerging free agent.
5. Handcuffed RBs: a dying breed - For those of you who have been in leagues for a while, you have probably heard of the idea that you need to make sure you draft the backup running back of your star RB (i.e. a handcuff). If you're still practicing this trend, you should probably stop (unless you have one of the handful of guys who have a well-known talented backup). The investment in these guys isn't worth a high pick, although perhaps one of your last two or three picks could be spent on them. I wouldn't reach for many of the backups though strictly because you own a starter.
4. Look at Team Schedules for Fantasy Playoffs - Are you stuck between two players - and do you believe you have a legitimate shot at making the fantasy playoffs? If you need a tie-breaker between two guys in the mid-to-late rounds, take a look at each team's opponents for when the fantasy playoffs would be. If your assessment of your team being playoff-worthy is correct, then you can capitalize on the matchups that will take place during the playoffs. Granted, you can't always project how certain teams will do (last year, over half of the league had a shift in wins of 3 or more). But if you have a general idea of how a team will do, then you may have a leg up when the fantasy playoffs roll around and you have great matchups ahead of you.
3. Kicker in the Last Rounds - Unless you're in a league that heavily emphasizes kickers (and if you are, you probably shouldn't be in the league), then you should really save your kicker pick for one of the last two rounds. If you're the type to draft a backup kicker, then I don't know what to say for you, other than "Thank you for being in my league, you moron". No one should ever have two kickers on their roster before the first week of the year. I may argue that you should never have two kickers ever, but some kickers on high volume scoring teams may be worth holding onto.
2. Promising rookie over aging veteran - As the late rounds of a league approach, you'll see people scrambling through their draft magazines or scanning their computers, looking for all the information they can gather on a couple of guys they are targeting. If you ask me (and of course you're asking me, since you're reading this crappy list), I'll almost always choose a promising rookie (or young guy with upside) over a veteran whose stats are fairly predictable. The thing with a promising rookie that works in your favor is that there really is no known ceiling for them, whereas guys who have been in the league 10 years who maxed out at about 1000 yards many years ago have a very limited ceiling when it comes to point production. Give me the rookie in those late rounds. In fantasy football, the unknown is the way to go.
1. Know your league settings - Does your league give you points for every reception (and how much?) Does your league give bonuses for certain levels of performance, like 300+ yards passing or 150+ yards rushing? Knowing these settings can go a long way in determining your draft strategy. If for some reason you're in a league that de-emphasizes passing touchdowns, you may be less likely to draft Drew Brees or Tom Brady with your first pick and instead go for a wide receiver. Before you draft, make sure you know how the point system works so you don't end up drafting a position that ends up being less valuable based on league settings.
No, the problem isn't that I'm currently in six fantasy leagues (four of which are for money). No. The fantasy football problem is that I'm not the defending champion in any of them. Granted, two of the leagues are new. But still - it's my fault for not winning them before being in the leagues or before they were actually created.
Anywho, since I'm in leagues with many of you, I'll give you my thoughts on how I approach these leagues. Perhaps they will help you, or perhaps they will turn you into a (bigger) loser. I can't tell you who to pick, or even any of my sleepers. Perhaps if Yahoo or NFL.com paid me to give a fantasy opinion, I would. But since neither of them do, all I can give you is my approach to each draft.
7. Don't over-study - There's numerous sites that offer their fantasy football opinions. Some opinions cancel each other out. Other opinions are based on group-think ("hey, this publication says this guy is gonna be a rising star, better have him ranked high). The truth is, a lot of it is guess work. You can study stats, fantasy magazines and rankings all day long, but all of the information you consume could overwhelm you - if you're studying up on these players too hard. Just use your best judgment when it comes to players and their situations. It doesn't hurt to do a mock draft or two, but you probably don't need to do 9 or 10 of them.
6. Don't stress about bye weeks - That's not to say it should be completely ignored, but if you're the type to draft a guy based solely on his bye week (say a backup QB for your Brady or Rodgers), you're going about it wrong. Think about how much turnover you have from the time you draft until the very end of the season. Odds are, about half of your team will be different. No use in picking a guy because he's not on Bye Week 8 when your top guy is playing when you're likely to drop the guy anyways for an emerging free agent.
5. Handcuffed RBs: a dying breed - For those of you who have been in leagues for a while, you have probably heard of the idea that you need to make sure you draft the backup running back of your star RB (i.e. a handcuff). If you're still practicing this trend, you should probably stop (unless you have one of the handful of guys who have a well-known talented backup). The investment in these guys isn't worth a high pick, although perhaps one of your last two or three picks could be spent on them. I wouldn't reach for many of the backups though strictly because you own a starter.
4. Look at Team Schedules for Fantasy Playoffs - Are you stuck between two players - and do you believe you have a legitimate shot at making the fantasy playoffs? If you need a tie-breaker between two guys in the mid-to-late rounds, take a look at each team's opponents for when the fantasy playoffs would be. If your assessment of your team being playoff-worthy is correct, then you can capitalize on the matchups that will take place during the playoffs. Granted, you can't always project how certain teams will do (last year, over half of the league had a shift in wins of 3 or more). But if you have a general idea of how a team will do, then you may have a leg up when the fantasy playoffs roll around and you have great matchups ahead of you.3. Kicker in the Last Rounds - Unless you're in a league that heavily emphasizes kickers (and if you are, you probably shouldn't be in the league), then you should really save your kicker pick for one of the last two rounds. If you're the type to draft a backup kicker, then I don't know what to say for you, other than "Thank you for being in my league, you moron". No one should ever have two kickers on their roster before the first week of the year. I may argue that you should never have two kickers ever, but some kickers on high volume scoring teams may be worth holding onto.
2. Promising rookie over aging veteran - As the late rounds of a league approach, you'll see people scrambling through their draft magazines or scanning their computers, looking for all the information they can gather on a couple of guys they are targeting. If you ask me (and of course you're asking me, since you're reading this crappy list), I'll almost always choose a promising rookie (or young guy with upside) over a veteran whose stats are fairly predictable. The thing with a promising rookie that works in your favor is that there really is no known ceiling for them, whereas guys who have been in the league 10 years who maxed out at about 1000 yards many years ago have a very limited ceiling when it comes to point production. Give me the rookie in those late rounds. In fantasy football, the unknown is the way to go.
1. Know your league settings - Does your league give you points for every reception (and how much?) Does your league give bonuses for certain levels of performance, like 300+ yards passing or 150+ yards rushing? Knowing these settings can go a long way in determining your draft strategy. If for some reason you're in a league that de-emphasizes passing touchdowns, you may be less likely to draft Drew Brees or Tom Brady with your first pick and instead go for a wide receiver. Before you draft, make sure you know how the point system works so you don't end up drafting a position that ends up being less valuable based on league settings.
4/26/2012
Mocking the Draft
There's nothing that gets people more worked up in the American sporting world away from the playing of the sport itself than drafts - specifically the NFL Draft. It's the time of year where people who watched 1-2 games of college football suddenly know about 90-95% of the players available to draft.
These "experts" know what player will fill each team's need the best, based highly on what they read from other "experts", which include talking heads on sports networks and radio.
The second category of experts has watched a little more football than the first group, but by no means would I call them experts. With very few exceptions, many of these folks are merely just guessing without any actual knowledge of who a general manager/coach is targeting with their exact picks.
I came across a site that ranks the efficiency of writers and other draft experts in their ability to pick the first round of the draft: http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftscoring.shtml. The system for ranking who picks the best is fairly simple - 2 points are given to a guy who picks the exact team/pick that a player is picked by and 1 point is given if you simply picked the guy to be picked in the first round. Note that the best guys are able to pick 8-9 players to their correct teams (or about 25%), with the very best picking 12 of the 32 (less than 40%). That doesn't seem very expertly. It seems more like a batting average.
I don't care that expertly isn't a word - it is now.
With this year's draft, anyone who isn't able to pick at least two of the players to the right team is a complete moron, so I wouldn't be surprised if someone is able to match or exceed that 12 number, but probably no better than 13 or 14 right.
Anyone who spends a few minutes reading team mock drafts suddenly uses those mocks as the standard by which a player can be considered a reach or a steal. While it's not a bad start to base your opinions on this, I'd say you're better off reading the guys who study this for a living and not the guys who write the random blog (i.e. me). There's a reason I'm not doing a mock draft - I don't have an eye for evaluating college players outside of the statistics I see.
I'm definitely not familiar with offensive tackles - I like to rely on the real expert's opinions on those. I have an idea of some of the offensive studs and some of the defensive guys, but by no means do I know enough to develop a competent mock draft. And based on the scores that many of these "experts" have had in the past 5 years, neither do they.
I say - take these mock drafts for what they are worth: one man's opinion on who each team should or will select based on their perceived needs and "value" of the pick. Sometimes you may not have a particular need at a position, but a player may fall to your team that is too good to pass up. What one team may perceive to be a potential bust, another may see a Pro Bowler (well, this term may be antique now with the Pro Bowl potentially being extinct).
Enjoy the 2012 draft. Hopefully your team gets someone who helps your team out in the next 5-10 years. If they don't get someone that you want, there's a good chance they may know a little more than you and they are picking that player for a reason.
Unless they're the Cleveland Browns. In that case, I say - Enjoy your Super Bowl today!
 |
| Ryan Leaf: From 2nd pick overall (almost 1st BEFORE Peyton Manning) to Bust to Fugitive. Perfect example on not to always trust experts. |
The second category of experts has watched a little more football than the first group, but by no means would I call them experts. With very few exceptions, many of these folks are merely just guessing without any actual knowledge of who a general manager/coach is targeting with their exact picks.
I came across a site that ranks the efficiency of writers and other draft experts in their ability to pick the first round of the draft: http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftscoring.shtml. The system for ranking who picks the best is fairly simple - 2 points are given to a guy who picks the exact team/pick that a player is picked by and 1 point is given if you simply picked the guy to be picked in the first round. Note that the best guys are able to pick 8-9 players to their correct teams (or about 25%), with the very best picking 12 of the 32 (less than 40%). That doesn't seem very expertly. It seems more like a batting average.
I don't care that expertly isn't a word - it is now.
With this year's draft, anyone who isn't able to pick at least two of the players to the right team is a complete moron, so I wouldn't be surprised if someone is able to match or exceed that 12 number, but probably no better than 13 or 14 right.
Anyone who spends a few minutes reading team mock drafts suddenly uses those mocks as the standard by which a player can be considered a reach or a steal. While it's not a bad start to base your opinions on this, I'd say you're better off reading the guys who study this for a living and not the guys who write the random blog (i.e. me). There's a reason I'm not doing a mock draft - I don't have an eye for evaluating college players outside of the statistics I see.
I'm definitely not familiar with offensive tackles - I like to rely on the real expert's opinions on those. I have an idea of some of the offensive studs and some of the defensive guys, but by no means do I know enough to develop a competent mock draft. And based on the scores that many of these "experts" have had in the past 5 years, neither do they.
I say - take these mock drafts for what they are worth: one man's opinion on who each team should or will select based on their perceived needs and "value" of the pick. Sometimes you may not have a particular need at a position, but a player may fall to your team that is too good to pass up. What one team may perceive to be a potential bust, another may see a Pro Bowler (well, this term may be antique now with the Pro Bowl potentially being extinct).
Enjoy the 2012 draft. Hopefully your team gets someone who helps your team out in the next 5-10 years. If they don't get someone that you want, there's a good chance they may know a little more than you and they are picking that player for a reason.
Unless they're the Cleveland Browns. In that case, I say - Enjoy your Super Bowl today!
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