Another Lesson Learned & NFL Week 4 Picks

As readers may know, I bombed completely on NCAA picks and continued my success in the NFL.

Week 3	Week 4
NFL 7-1, +394	NCAA 2-8, -$400
Totals 3-0, $213	Totals 0-1, -$110
MLs 2-0, $126	MLs 0-3, -$170
Spreads, 2-1, $55	Spreads 2-4, -$120
YTD: 15-7-3, +$389	YTD: 8-12, -$325
Totals: 7-1-1, +$327	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-0, +$126	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 6-6-2, -$64	Spreads: 8-6, +$65

Between the footballs, I am 23-19-3 and up $64. Ever since my opening night Under debacle, I haven't lost a bet when wagering on over/under totals (7-0-1) - leaving off exactly where I was last year.

One lesson learned from this past week is very simple: Don't bet on teams that you know absolutely nothing about.

I know this sounds simple and common sense, but sometimes reading about one of these teams and how they are perceived by smart handicappers can get a novice like me to throw money on a team. This happened a few times this past Saturday with college football. Outside of my viewing of Big Ten games, prime time/isolated games and matchups featuring highly regarded teams, I know very little about college football. My betting angles are highly determined by certain guys on the advice site I use (covers.com) that I trust.

It's always better to bet on teams/games where you've watched these teams at least once or twice and read some pieces on teams. There's too many games for people to be experts on every single team/conference in the nation. I always believed that studying up on a smaller conference that doesn't get bet heavily would be the best way to make a living gambling, but I've never gotten around to following my advice on that.


Blog note: I haven't narrowed down any NCAA picks yet, so I'll save that for tomorrow or Saturday morning. I was just too damn bored to put off writing my NFL picks blog for the week.

Fools Gold Pick of the Week - NFL Week 4

The Fools Gold pick moved to 3-0 with an ugly Seahawks winning (which I happened to bet the money line on instead of taking the points). Most of the time, I'll take the points but I felt confident that Arizona wouldn't win - yet alone cover. Looking to make this 4-0, so here goes nothing:

Buffalo -3/3.5 at Cincinnati - How could Buffalo only be three point favorites coming off of an incredible come-from-behind victory against their division rivals (New England) and Cincy coming off of a dismal performance against an equally dismal team (San Fran)? One word: letdown.

Buffalo was pulling an 0-fer against New England in their past 15 games against them and was determined to end that streak - even after they spotted Brady and company three touchdowns before the last-second chip shot field goal. A mental letdown is to be expected against a non-divisional opponent.

Whether it be Cedric Benson (who is awaiting word on his suspension at the moment) or Bernard Scott, I expect the Bengals to be able to run the ball like they did last year against the Bills (Benson went for 25 carries and 124 yards in a home loss).

Also, the Bengals come into Week 4 with the third-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Granted, these teams they faced aren't necessarily offensive juggernauts (Bengals, Broncos, Niners), but I do think they'll keep this lower-scoring than what the Bills have been comfortable with so far this year.

I am aware of the loss that the Bengals had in this matchup last year. I just believe that at this moment in the season, the Bills are due for a stinker. The circumstances seem ripe for one.

Likely betting: Cincy +3 (hoping to get it at 3.5 by game time). YTD: 3-0 (2-0 on games I've bet of these Fools picks)


Other NFL Picks I'm scoping

Boy, would I love to keep this 12-2-2 run of the past two weeks going. I know I have a chance myself to encounter a Buffalo Bills letdown, but no reason to think that I can't continue to progress as a smart NFL gambler.

Houston -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh - Already booked. My book has fluctuated anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 for this game, and I don't think it's going to get down to the key -3 number, so I figured I'd lock it in now. I love this matchup for Houston's pass attack against Pittsburgh's average secondary. Also love the matchup for Houston's pass rush vs. Pittsburgh's weakened line, which got burned alive against the Colts last week.

Chicago -6 vs. Carolina - I think Carolina (particularly Newton) is in for a rude awakening against a Bears defense that was made to look average against the Packers - this tends to happen against all teams that play the Packers. Carolina's running game has been non-existent so far, and I think the Bears defense will be able to exploit this and force a couple of turnovers on Newton. A defensive score would not shock me. I think the Bears win this by 14+. Also considering the under (currently at 42)

San Fran +9 at Philly - I think this will be the third game in a row that Vick does not finish a game. Their offensive line is pedestrian - Patrick Willis and company are licking their chops at building off of their defensive domination against the Bengals. Normally, I'd be worried about the west coast team travelling east, but San Fran stayed out east after their tilt in Ohio. I think Vernon Davis will finally become a consistent part of the San Fran offense that they desperately need after his 100+ yard performance. I think this stays within the spread (hoping it climbs to 10 for a little more insurance), with a mild chance of a San Fran upset.

NYJ +3.5 at Baltimore - Mangold should be coming back this week - an important component of the Jets' offensive line. They'll need him against Ngata and the rest of the Ravens pass rush. I think this will be the defensive, smash mouth battle that the NFL has been lacking this year. Getting the half point here will be key - I think this will be a game decided by a field goal one way or the other.

Other sides I am considering: Seattle +4, Tennessee pick'em

Totals I am considering: Phil/SF Under 44, Chi/Car Under 42, Pitt/Hou Over 45, Balt/NYJ Under 42.5

Check www.twitter.com/brianbolek (or Twitter @brianbolek) for updates

I may or may not end up posting an NCAA picks blog and may just post my plays on Twitter. Stay tuned.

Start your weekends off right, my friends and family. Love you all.

We're Talking Baseball: Excitement, Disrespect & Playoff Predictions

Random baseball thoughts:

Blowing the Load

If baseball's amazing action yesterday were analogized in sexual terms, one might say that MLB blew it all out on the foreplay part.

What a kickoff to the baseball playoffs. It was the most excited I've been watching baseball since 2005. Unfortunately, I don't see there being an opportunity to go up from here.

Sure, there will be moments that stick out. Perhaps another walk-off home run to decide a game or a great catch at the wall that prevents a bases-clearing double in the late innings could capture our attentions briefly.

To get that kind of excitement from many different games at once, however, will be nearly impossible to match.

Tampa Bay Rons

Putting baseball in a political spectrum, Tampa Bay reminds me much of Ron Paul. All of the semantics surrounding their entry into the playoffs is all about the Red Sox collapse, not Tampa Bay's strong push to make it to this point. This is much like anytime Dr. Paul is mentioned (or more appropriately, not mentioned) in an article addressing percentages in the polls.

The Cardinals get more credit for their comeback to make the playoffs than the Rays do - which has to do with the news market having an interest in the Cardinals (particularly their history) and very little interest in a team lucky to draw 15,000 fans to a game. Also, it helps when the team that collapsed is based in the Northeast, where much of the mainstream media are based - and of course, another team that is rich in history throughout the history of baseball.

If the Rays win the World Series, Sportscenter may promote it as "Phillies Collapse" rather than promoting the victors. I could see the same for Ron Paul if he were lucky enough to get put on the Republican ticket - "Obama Falters in Re-Election Bid".

Rooting Interest

Speaking of the Rays, I definitely have a financial stake in rooting for them to win it all. On Tuesday when they were tied with the Red Sox, my site had the Rays' odds of winning the WS at 18/1, so I threw 20 on it.

In the other AL series, I am hoping that the Tigers can pull it out. My last live bet on BookMaker is a $10 bet to win the World Series at 40/1.

The NL team with the best odds (best being relative on value) on 5dimes is the Brewers, coming in at 8/1. I am debating a small bet on them as well.

What's Your Fantasy?

Baseball isn't as sexy of a sport for me to play in the fantasy sports realm of life. This was my first year of the past 4 where I didn't play a money league.

However, I still do take some pride in my teams, and I'll take any championship that I can. Even if it means when I didn't really win it, per se. I finished a league with the top seed and had my pitching carry me to a 6-6 tie. However, since I held the top seed and that's the first tiebreaker, I took down the crown. My other leagues lent themselves to average finishes (6 of 12 and 7 of 10), so I really wanted this one bad.

Analyzing My Preseason Picks/Making New Ones

Back in March, I wrote a piece on my predictions for the MLB season, foolishly selecting the White Sox losing to the Phillies in the Fall Classic. While I was way off on half of that, I think the second of that is looking pretty strong entering October.

Division predictions that went well: Brewers and Rangers were my only correct predictions.
Division predictions that faded during the second half: The Giants could never muster any offense to support their strong staff and the Red Sox did their best to mirror the beginning and end of their season.
Division predictions that never had a chance: The Twins (last place finish) and Braves (distant second place) were easily bested.
Wild cards: White Sox (oooooops) and Phillies (tried being cute and having them win the World Series after winning the wild card).

New prediction for the World Series (part 3): Phillies over Rays
My first prediction bombed. My midseason prediction (Phils over Tigers) could very well happen. I just like the Rays' pitching over the other teams left in the AL.

Even though I'd rather have one of my bets come in, I don't see Philly's staff being bested. Pitching carries teams in the postseason.

NFL/College blog to come tomorrow.

Have a good evening everyone.

College Consolidation & Week 4 NCAAF picks

Super conferences are the newest college trend - move over paying of players! The trend is so prevalent, it's easy to forget there's an actual season going on with all the focus being on the conference reshuffling.

In a few years, I see many of the big conferences in football being the equivalent of the Big East in basketball - 16 teams. Each conference will have its separate divisions for the purposes of a conference championship. Joining one of these super conferences will be THE ONLY WAY that teams like Boise and TCU will have a chance to win a national title.

(An aside - If Boise is one of two teams undefeated at the end of the year, there WILL be a 1-loss team that plays in the championship game in place of them. Every year, teams leap over Boise in the rankings when voters can't justify putting Boise in a spot where they may play in the title game. Boise is the perfect example of why there needs to be some readjustment to the championship system - whether it be an 8 team playoff or the like).

Funny thing is, no matter how big it gets, the Big Ten will never change its name. No wonder why math scores are so low in our country. At least those airheads out west could change their name to the Pac-12. Yeah yeah, I know there is already a Big 12. Can't the Big Ten rename itself The Dirty Dozen for the time being?


Bolek's Bets

After a perfect week of betting in my first week of betting (3-0, +$120), I dipped back into reality with a 3-4, -$35 week last week (including the Th & F games)

Last week: 3-4, -$35; YTD thru 9-17: 6-4, +$85

Already bet - Cincy -7 (-120) - easy victory. Little scare in this bet.

Central Florida +110 ML at BYU - UCF's defense - plus knowing I'll be bored and wanted something to follow - have me betting this Friday night tilt.

SD St +10.5 at Michigan - What may be touted as the Hoke Bowl, Michigan's defense isn't good enough to spot Hoke's former team this many points.

Notre Dame -6.5 at Pittsburgh - ND showed the type of team they can be last week against MSU when they don't have the turnover issues. I think it carries over here.

Western Michigan +13.5 at Illinois - I think Illinois will win, but I sense somewhat of a letdown. One thing to be weary of - Illinois was embarrassed by W. Michigan at Ford Field a few seasons ago, so revenge could be a factor.

Considering - Oklahoma -19.5, Alabama -11, Clemson -2.5

As always, follow my Twitter feed for updates if you'd like @brianbolek or www.twitter.com/brianbolek

Enjoy your weekends.

Tom Brady is Sexy, Other NFL Observations & Week 3 Thoughts

Another week in the books, another week on the horizon. Some thoughts came from my Week 2 observations:

The Best D in New England is BraDy

New England's strong offensive start (36.5 points/game) has helped mask what definitely isn't one of the strong defenses that we are used to from the New England dynasty. There's no questioning Brady's awesomeness, and he's clearly the best weapon there is in the NFL. I'd worry about NE's chances to win it all if I were the Patriots though. As the Jets showed in the playoffs last year, if you make Brady look average, the Pats don't have the defense they once did to carry them to the next level. For now, I'm sticking with my Packers pick.

QBs should wear flags

The late hits being called on QBs is nothing new, but through the first two weeks, some of these calls are borderline ridiculous at best and shows me that the NFL should just take the next logical step that they are going with this pampering of QBs and put flags on them.  That way, at least you could justify all the flags that always end up surrounding the quarterback on a weekly basis.

The constant flags make it impossible for defensive players to do what they were taught to do their entire careers - hit people.

Cam Newton - Too Much Love

I'm not saying he doesn't deserve some love, but all these media outlets are doing their best Katie Morgan impressions on Cam right now. I'm impressed with his completion rate (62.7%) but I won't be on board with him until he cuts back on interceptions (4 so far). Obviously, the season is young AND he is a rookie - so there is clearly room for improvement. I do think he will be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback throughout his career. But remember, his team is 0-2 and in his case (unlike Brady's), averaging 400+ yards a game is probably not gonna be the formula that wins them games.

Tony Romo - Too Much Hate

I bet you didn't know this stat about Romo - he has the league's highest passer rating in the 4th quarter since 2006 (source: check it here - first posted on ESPN). You'd never know based on the media's non-Cam Newton love for Romo. Much like LeBron, Romo's personality rubs people the wrong way and seems to bring on the majority of his haters.

While Romo only has 1 playoff win (to 3 losses in the 4 pro seasons that he ended the season as starter - last year not included), he has the same number of Super Bowl wins as Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Matt Ryan - who are three of the QBs considered to be among the elite of QBs in the NFL. Yet, you never hear about their inability to win in the playoffs or the big game - Rivers (3-4 record in 5 years of starting), Vick (2-3), Ryan (0-2 in 3 seasons).

I mention Super Bowl because that's what seems to be the only way people look at Romo's success. I think he is a top-10 quarterback in the league, but don't think he's top 5. Thus, I think people should stop looking at his career as a failure because of this.

I'll take him any day of the week on the Niners, especially with the guts he had to return against San Fran in Week 2 with his injured ribs and lungs.

Fools Gold

Last week: Tennessee easily covered the +6 against Baltimore; YTD: 2-0
(A quick explanation: Fools Gold is a game I highlight every week where a pointspread doesn't seem right and look to figure out why. In many cases, I will often bet against the bet that the general betting public will make)

Fools Gold Play of the Week: Arizona -3.5 at Seattle - Seattle couldn't have looked any more turdish in their back-to-back defeats to start the year against San Fran and Pittsburgh. Their offense has been offensive, and if they were playing any other team other than San Fran in Week 1, they would have lost that game by 24+. San Fran let Seattle stay in that game and only pulled away late because of Ted Ginn's returns.

Meanwhile, Arizona has played a few games down to the wire, holding on against Carolina before losing late in the game against the surprising 2-0 Redskins. Based on how each team has played, you'd think the line would be closer to Ariz -5 or 6 at least, but Seattle (no matter their personnel) plays well at home. The 12th man will get behind Seattle in their first home game of the season (and first home game since the upset against New Orleans last year) and Seattle wins an ugly game. Likely betting: Seattle +3.5

NFL Bets Last Week: 5-1-2, +$175 (Twitter shows my gambling updates the best - didn't bet KC last week, so check that out if interested @brianbolek)
YTD: 8-6-3 (lots of pushes this year so far, had none all of last year), -$6

More Week 3 picks:

Cin -3 (+105) vs. SF - already locked in. I see the Bengals winning this by a couple scores. They nearly pulled off the impressive feat of winning 2 road games to start the season despite low expectations. AJ Green has a performance that is a step below from Austin's the week before and Cincy wins by a couple scores.
NO -4 vs. Hou - Houston's first test this year. New Orleans' defense got back on track with a half dozen sacks of Cutler and will carry it over to this game. NO by 10. I think this one will be lower scoring than most people - might play the under as well.
KC +14.5 at SD - This is more of a system play than anything. Historically, teams who come off of two games where they get blown out will often cover in the third game. I don't have exact records, but just know this from gambling all these years and reading forums on the topic. Hoping to catch this around 15 or 15.5 but will be happy with 14.5.

Leans: Indy +10, Wash +5.5, Cle -2.5, Oak +3.5

Survivor pool pick for Week 3: Philadelphia (sticking with the home team system after considering New England)

Other picks will emerge from the heap of games I'm sure - likely some of the leans. To follow those, check out my twitter at www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in twitter-speak, @brianbolek.

Good luck to everyone's teams (fantasy, gambling and especially REAL teams!)

Chi-town Date of Mind (Chapter 5)

The date went well.



The end.



Really, that's all I have to say....it went well!



The girl is awesome and the date (hamburger joint and a movie) went well. I think I mentioned the date went well, right?


Dating sites do work. Best choice I've made this year.


These abstract blogs are a lot easier to write I must say!


If you wanna know more about it, I'd rather share in person. Figured I'd let all B-Bo Knows Online Dating Blog readers know of the result.


Ok, this time for real.....The End.

I Love Being Right - Modesty at its Worst

Of course, everyone loves being right. Who wouldn't? But there are certain aspects of life where being right gives us more satisfaction than in others.

For me, of course, it is in the area of gambling - particulaly sports betting. The feeling of a winning bet is hard to describe to someone who hasn't placed and won a bet. I dare not compare it to sex because....well.....yeah.

But even a subset within gambling that gives me the most satisfaction are the particular bets that you know that most people aren't on. If you've read my week 1 and 2 previews of NFL, you see a section titled "Fool's Gold", which highlights a game each week where a spread seems too good to be true, a bet that just seems like it's begging for action on one side.

These are the bets that make me proud to be a gambler. Like I've said before, these sucker bets, also known in the gambling community as "square bets", are not always wrong. Last week's NE game against Miami is the perfect example of this - a game I lost money on.

However, today had some interesting lines that screamed "BET ME!!!", which in Gamblish means "bet the other side". Baltimore was example 1 of this - over 85% of people in Yahoo pick'em odds leagues selected them. The more I thought about it, the easier it was for me to bet Tennessee.

Second BET ME was actually one where I bet into the side where I shouldn't have - Dallas laying (spotting) three points at San Fran. Yes, I bet against my team - but make no mistake, as my friend Tim can attest to, I was rooting hard for San Fran to win this game. I didn't think the bet was square until I saw that all 11 people in our pick'em league picked Dallas. For the bet's sake (not for my fandom's sake), Dallas came back and made the game a non-bet with the 3 point win.

Third BET ME was Philly laying 2.5 points against Atlanta, who got spanked by Chicago in Week 1. I think many people had short memories on Atlanta - who are a dominant home team in the Matty Ryan era - losing only 2 games that he has started in the Georgia Dome since he became their franchise QB. Yeah, I come off pompous by saying I saw Atlanta covering a mile away, because there was severe doubt on their cover here (it took till the last minutes for Atl to seal the deal).

You'd think with all of this hot shit talk on my part that I did awesome in the pick'em league, but quite the opposite. My picks against the spread were 4-9-2 (2-0-1 in the above games, 2-9-1 in the others). However, as I was getting to a few paragraphs ago before getting into specific bets, there are certain bets that you want to win more than others, just so you can tell people, "I was right!"

And despite the piss-poor record in the pick'em league, I actually ended up being 5-1-1 with my bets.

Winning bets were: Ten +6; Ind/Cle Over 39 (I tailed a bet that a respected gambler that I read a lot about was making here); Pitt -14; Atl +2.5 and Atlanta Over 23.5 team points.
Losing bet was: Wash -3.5
Push was: Dallas -3

I make my initial reads in a blog on Thursday or Friday but usually don't lock my bets in until Saturday night or Sunday morning. This week, I was unsure until Sunday morning on my final plan of attack as far as bets go. I try updating my bets on my Twitter, if you ever care to follow it (www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in Twitter language - @brianbolek). This is where you will find my bets for the day as I make them.

Monday night - I might not bet, but let's be serious. I'd lean St Louis if I hear of Jackson being healthy, but will likely lean in the direction of the Under 44 (or so) for that game.

My goal for the Fool's Bet column throughout the 17 weeks is a 12-5 or better record. I will likely bet it every week and hope that this goal - if achieved - makes me a profit.

Yes, I know I'm being an asshole with this blog here, but I don't care. One thing about me that you can't discredit is that I will put my money where my mouth is, so if you feel like I am on the wrong side of a bet, I am usually up for making side bets in addition to my 4-5 games of betting.

I hope I'm right more often, especially at clips like this. But realistically, you have to expect no more than a 53-55% winning percentage at best over a long span of betting. There will be those weeks where you lose 75%-100% of your bets, but always gotta keep your head even keel when betting.

Bet against some of these future sucker bets at your own risk! I'm here to help you out and make sure you don't overlook certain aspects of games that go into making point spreads what they are.

Lovie/Hate Relationship: The Dissection of Why Bears Fans Hate The Coach (and week 3 college picks)

With the start of NFL season in Chicago comes the annual "Fire Lovie Smith" chants from many fans.

But why?

Is it something to do with his personality, which is the antithesis of everything that the most beloved coach in Bears history of the past 30 years (DAAAAA COACH) represented?

Is it something to do with his in-game adjustments or use of challenges?

Is it just the nature of sports, when a team's fan base calls for a coach's head whenever they go a decent amount of time without a championship?

It couldn't have anything to do with race, could it?

It has to be one of these things, because it couldn't be about his record as a coach. Entering the 2011 season, Lovie sported a 63-49 record as the Bears coach in his 7 years at the helm. In this span, Lovie has won over half of the division championships in the division (4), made two conference championship games and one Super Bowl.

In the decade preceding Lovie's reign as head coach, the Bears mainly suffered through the Dick Jauron (1999-2003) and Dave Wannstedt (1993-1998) eras. In these 11 seasons, the Bears went to the playoffs twice, combining to go 75-101 between the two coaches.

I hear all the complaining about Lovie, but as a Niners fan, I have absolutely no sympathy for Bears fans. From 2004-2010, the Niners sport this amazing run of dominance:

2004: 2-14
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9 (hey now! Let's not overachieve here!)
2007: 5-11 (that's more like it)
2008: 7-9
2009: 8-8
2010: 6-10

For those of you who can do math, that's a record of 39-73. In that time, we won exactly 0 conference championships, 0 division championships, 0 playoff games (hard to do when you make the playoffs ZERO times in that span) and are currently on our 4th coach since Lovie started. So please excuse me if I find this Lovie talk to be a tad annoying.

Does any Bears fan wanna trade for the Niners past 7 years in a straight-up deal? I'll gladly take what you have: a boring coach who has won 4 divisions for a team who has had 4 coaches and no playoff appearances.


I think a lot of Lovie's problem is that he is not Ditka and will always be compared to him. Lovie would need to win more than one Super Bowl for people to even consider him better than Ditka. The 1985 season will always be held up on a pedestal in the pantheon of sports seasons (in Chicago and nationwide), so Lovie (and any other future Bears coach) will never be able to escape that shadow.

I hope that the day Lovie is let go (or heaven forbid, RETIRES from the coaching profession as a Bears coach), that Bears fans can at least give the guy some credit for coaching many teams that not a whole lot of people expected much from and led them to success more often than not.

Because when they hire Dick Jauron or Dave Wannstedt Jr. (I hope Wannstedt didn't name a kid after himself, this is more for example's sake) to lead the team afterwards, you might be in for some cold winters as a Bears fan.

Note: If I don't respond to potential/inevitable criticism of this blog (whether it be on fb comments or in here), it's not that I am dismissing your comments. It's just that I don't know how else I could state my case beyond the above material that I could say any differently.

Week 3 college picks

I've made a few picks this week so far, going 1-1 between LSU -3.5 and Boise's first half line (+$20 combined). These two games bring my college season record to 4-1, +$140.

Notre Dame -5 (vs. Mich St) - $55 to win $50
Nebraska -17 (vs. Washington) - $55 to win $50
Illinois -2 (vs. Arizona St) - $55 to win $50

I may make more bets throughout the day. I'll try keeping them updated- may start updating my bets on my Twitter account (twitter.com/brianbolek - follow me @brianbolek).

Have a good day everyone. Make your Saturdays enjoyable and prosperous.

Footballs Deep: NFL trends and Week 2 thoughts

The Death of the Running Back


Welcome to Thursday night. We are officially a week removed from the exciting start to the NFL season, where we saw the duel between Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Who knew that the slinging would continue into the Monday night games, particularly in a matchup featuring Tom Brady and Chad Henne, who somehow combined for more yards than Rodgers and Brees? Many games on Sunday also featured some high passing yardage totals, with Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick being among the unexpected leaders in the clubhouse.

The trend of high passing yardage is nothing new, but the number of guys in Week 1 who performed well, especially by the unknowns, makes me believe that having a top quality running back isn't all that important anymore. Sure, it helps with play actions and keeping some defenses honest.

But look at how many teams line up in shotgun formation on a regular basis, especially with the top quarterbacks. Even when teams know that these guys are going to pass, defenses can do nothing to stop it. I think the death of the running back is its prime right now.

Yes, yes - there's still elite running backs in the league. But how many of them are on teams that are considered the favorites to win the Super Bowl?


Fool's Gold Bet of the Week

Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee: From what I saw of the game, which was very limited amount, the Titans seemed to struggle to move the ball much against the Jaguars - a team not considered to epitomize great defense. You'd think that playing a team like the Ravens, a team that just schooled its rival Pittsburgh 35-7, would warrant a higher line that 5.5 point home dogs as a result. With this line, Vegas is telling me that they expect the Ravens to have somewhat of a letdown (especially off of the rivalry angle), while also saying that the Titans might not be as bad as they looked in Week 1. I think Chris Johnson is able to get on track this week. The Titans almost won the opener despite CJ's struggles to get going, so if he's able to get one or two big runs like he's accustomed to, that will be the difference in keeping this game close. (Likely betting Tennessee +5.5)

Fool's Gold YTD: 1-0 (record based on betting against the trend - Last week's pick (Washington) easily covered). This is a record of betting against the spread, not straight-up.


Fantasy Football Blurb

I wrote a blog about how nobody really cares about your fantasy football team if they're not asking about it, so since you're not asking, I won't tell you. I will mention that I did lose all of my big money league games, but I refuse to panic and think my season is over. It obviously makes winning week 2 more important than normal, but the season is a grind and needs to be treated as such.

Lots of times, teams who lose week 1 start to panic and make irrational moves based on one week's worth of data. If you know owners like that in your leagues, my suggestion is to exploit these owners. Try getting Blount or CJ from some panicked owner and then reap the rewards later. Just don't do it in any of my leagues.


Week 2 Leans/Bets

Week 1 started off on a terrible foot, with the Under being destroyed in the opening game of the year. In fact, Overs went 12-3-1 in NFL's first week. Much of that is credited to the trend I mentioned at the top of the blog - Quarterbacks Gone Wild.

Two unlisted bets from Monday - I lost $60 total on Monday (1-1), $55 Sunday (2-3-1) and $66 (0-1) on Thursday - so a rough start to the NFL (3-5-1, -$181). Luckily, I won all 3 of my college bets on Saturday (+$120) to negate much of that damage.

Week 2 is a lot murkier for me at this point, but here's some games I'm looking to bet:

Ten +5.5 vs Baltimore
KC +7.5 at Detroit
Pitt -14 vs. Seattle or the Under 40
Dallas -3 at San Fran
Atlanta +1.5 vs Phil

I will post final bets on Sunday.

Survivor pool pick. I used San Diego last week. Week 2 pick: Pittsburgh.

Good luck in your bets, fantasy leagues, and most importantly, to the actual team that you root for.

Counting My Chickens (Chapter 4)

The past two weeks, I've received more response in person about my blogs than any other time in the past year that I've written a blog. I never would have guessed that people would this much of a crap about my dating life and where the online dating world takes me. The step-by-step stuff that I've shared seems to make the story more relate-able to everyone.

The fact that the 3 dating blogs have all reached top 5 blog status - including the last one which currently has 118 views (a record for this blog) - proves to me the level of interest that everyone has with it. It's been fun writing the blogs so far. Even more fun to have people come up to me and tell me how much they have loved the stories so far.

Another thing I didn't account for, however, is how vulnerable I make myself when I share my life with the hundreds of people I know on Facebook. Don't get me wrong - I love sharing some stories of my life with everyone.  But this past week, I may have been jumping the gun with things when it comes to the dating thing.

"Bad News Never Had Good Timing"

So it turns out that there will not be a second date. An online discussion Sunday night with the girl of the first date had her opening up to me and saying that she'd just like to be friends - which isn't all that new of a phrase to me - and no, I'm not looking for sympathy, just being honest in that I've heard that a lot, especially lately.

And I have no ill-will towards anyone who says it, including this case. I just don't care for the people who say that and then never bother maintaining their end of "Let's Just Be Friends". It's easy to figure those out. Luckily, some of the people who I've heard say that have held up their end of the bargain.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed - because I am. Hell, it seemed to be the only thing I spoke about to people the past week. The people who asked me about my chances, I tried stressing that I am cautiously optimistic. That was no lie, because I knew there was no guarantees after the first date.

And please, no ill will towards Date-1.

"On to the Next One"

So after I've told dozens of people in person and 100s of readers about what was to come of my week this week with a second date that wasn't, I find myself with my pants around my ankles somewhat. I know that there was a chance of things not working out when starting this blog, but I felt (and still feel) compelled to share some of this stories. Especially since people seem to respond to it so well.


I went back on the site and messaged a few new possibilities. I'll go back to my strategy of messaging new people that I would like to meet and hope that I can get another date out of it.

Depending on results and stories, I may update this segment weekly or a couple times a week. I hope to have more success stories to share with you. Although there is a part of me that may not want to build these things up in such a public forum, but rather do it in private conversations with people.

But one thing this guy won't do is quit. I did meet a cool girl off of the site so far and wouldn't mind at this point if she lived up to her "Let's Be Friends" thing - so the site definitely is not a total loss.

Time to march on and meet the next girl.

Love/Hate - Football Style & College Picks - Week 2

The NFL offseason brought about some things about teams and players that I love, some on the opposite spectrum.

I love...the fact that the NFC West still appears to be weak as hell. This gives the Niners a fighting chance to win the division.

I hate...that we are giving Alex Smith yet another chance to prove himself. I'm not sure if Harbaugh is a mad scientist or what, but he has been on record as saying he wanted Smith to be back with the team. I'm not saying Kaepernick is the answer, but I'd almost rather throw a rookie out there. It's not like Smith has done anything to earn the starting spot again.

I love...at least for week 1, the disrespect that the Buccaneers are getting. Tampa went 10-6 last year, but missed the playoffs based on losing a tiebreaker to Green Bay. I know that Tampa had a somewhat weak schedule, but they took advantage of it, sweeping Carolina and their 4 NFC West games on their way to a 9-1 record versus sub-.500 team. I know they need to do better against good teams (only win was Week 17 against the Saints, who benched their starters), but I think their core of players will keep them on the right side of .500 this year. Their only loss in that 9-1 stretch, coincidentally, came to the team that is next on my list.

I hate...how much love the Lions are getting from across the spectrum of media. Believe me, this is hard to say with how much money I made on Detroit games last season. I'd like Detroit's chances a lot better if LeShoure didn't get hurt for the year, because he would have been a great compliment to speedster Jahvid Best. Also, their other impact rookie, Nick Fairley, won't be starting Week 1 after having surgery on his foot last month -who knows how long it will take him to have an impact once he does get on the field. And last but not least, Matt Stafford hasn't been healthy for an entire season yet. He's their ultimate key for making the next step and making a playoff run, so I'm waiting to see him play a full season before I can push the Lions forward as a playoff contender.

I love...that Favre is finally out of the NFL. The media (not him) tried bringing his name back into the circles of conversation with rumors of him going to the Eagles as a backup and the Colts when Manning's status to start the season was in doubt. The first rumor, let me say, was about the most laughable rumor in the history of rumors. Does anyone actually believe that Favre would be a willing back-up for someone? The Colts would have been more reasonable, but Favre would have likely been murdered if he decided to go back out there.

I hate...that the Texans are now the favorites in their division and getting some media love. Before Manning's injury was known to be one that could have him missing the season, the Texans were a sleeper division pick. Don't get me wrong - I think the Texans will win the division and deserve to be the favorite at this point. I'm just being a Pouty Pete because I wanted them to be more of underdogs going into the season so that my prediction back in August would look more ballsy.


With those things being said, I am making my first college picks of the year in week 2. Games are Saturday games. Likely making them $44 plays.

Michigan +3 over Notre Dame - I think Michigan is going to thrive behind their home crowd in the first game under the lights at the Big House. I usually end up betting this rivalry game and betting it wrong, so you make want to play Notre Dame for all you can.

Oregon -27 over Nevada - Oregon is not happy after their performance against LSU and will put a hurting on Nevada here.

Tulsa -12 over Tulane - This is complete degenerate action here, but a lot of the good handicappers on Covers (the site I use for gambling research) are loving this line, so I figured I'd give it a shot.

I'll likely have another NFL blog up by Monday, with a possible pick for Monday's game.

Have a good weekend folks, and enjoy opening weekend of the NFL - I know I will.

Date & See (Chapter 3)

For those of you who haven't been following my online dating, here are the first two chapters of my journey in the online dating world:

Chapter 1 (Intro to Online Dating)
Chapter 2 (Reflection After a Week)

The end of chapter 2 has me looking forward to a date, which occurred earlier this week.

In the day or two preceding the date, I must say it was a mixture of anxiousness, excitement and a tad bit of nervousness. I was more calmed than anything though since during that time, I was able to keep in touch with the date as we got to know each other better through some online conversation and then after exchanging numbers, some texting. As we talked more, it seemed like we kept finding more things that we had in common - which made me look forward to the date that much more.

Date Day - Stay Cool, Ice Cold (Before the Date)

Date day comes. You would think that I'd have a slight nervousness at points in the day, especially as my work day progresses towards its end. I was as cool as a cucumber (to be honest, I never understood this phrase - probably because I don't handle cucumbers and have no idea on their temperature tendencies). I knew it to be a more casual of a first date, so a polo and jeans would suffice.

I had to stop at a gas station for some breath mints, so Mentos it was - a fairly insignificant event compared to the next one I almost faced. I almost didn't make it to my first date. As I was heading north on Pulaski, a car turning left was somewhat impeding the path of a car behind it, so it creeped into my lane, missing me by inches. Luckily, when I slammed on the brakes, there was no one tailing me.

The Waiting Game

So I get to the date a little early and text my date, letting her know what to look for and that I'll be waiting outside. She texts me close to the start of the date time, saying she's just about to leave and apologizes several times.

Waiting, playing on my Crackberry, waiting some more.

I'm not going to be left at a pizza place by myself on what was supposed to be my first date, am I?

I knew she lived closed, so I was doubting she had left - sure enough, she hadn't. I get another text apologizing even more, assuring me she had just left and she'll explain when she gets there.

Finally....The Date

My phone had froze when I accidently deleted an app of mine, so I had to restart it. In that time, she texted me where I was at, but luckily I saw someone who matched her profile looking like she was looking for someone.

(Sidenote: I mean, who wouldn't be looking for me? I mean, look at me, right? End of sidenote)

I give somewhat of an awkward hug to her to say hello, tell her I'm starving and let's get some food! We ended up going to Barraco's in Evergreen Park and getting some deep dish pizza. I'd say the conversation flowed well, much like the online conversations we had been having. I got to learn about her adventures from the summer and other past stories that she told that showed me that she was comfortable talking to me. I always appreciate people who can open up to me, but this being a first date and first time meeting each other, I appreciated it that much more. It helps I'm sure that I've opened up to her a lot about random crap.

Part 1 of the date being over, we stood outside of the Barraco's trying to figure out our next step of the date. I even said to her that we were looking like a bunch of idiots standing outside of a restaurant that is adjacent to a busy street. Luckily, the term idiot or whatever offshoot of the word I used doesn't seem to offend her. We finally decided on living up to the bet that we made the day before via text: loser of a darts game has to buy the other ice cream.

(Sidenote 2: I really did enjoy the simpleness of the date - pizza, darts and ice cream. It seemed to fit both of our personalities well)

So we go to Durbins in Burbank for a few games of darts. After ordering our only drinks (me a Blue Moon, her a Jack and Coke), we get into our dart games. From these games, I learn that she is very competitive, as she says she may not talk to me again if I beat her. I do appreciate her competitive nature, as we both agree that nobody should ever participate in any activity and not expect to win. My prospects of talking to her beyond the date were looking good, as I was quickly trailing after 5 rounds in our first Count Up game of darts by over 130. In round 6, I pulled a round of 129 out of my ass (2 triple 20s and a 9) and then overtook her in the next round to capture the victory. Needless to say, she wasn't happy. I didn't need quite the comebacks in the next two games, both victories for me. Game 4 was hers, but the damage was done. I won 3 of 4 games and essentially ruined my chances of talking to her beyond this date.

Just kidding. We ended up getting ice cream after - a Neopolitan scoop with another ice cream for her (sorry, I forgot the other scoop) and a double peanut butter/chocolate scoop - both waffle cones. Apparently, the Baskin Robbins we went to holds some significance to her, with her and her friends spending many a night being obnoxious (hmmmm....sounds like me and my friends traditionally being obnoxious at bowling alleys and restaurants). We continued to converse well there and called it a night a little after 11pm.

As we walk outside, I thought about a kiss on the cheek good night but figured that since we established a second date that maybe it could wait. Before hugging her good bye, I made note of her looking better in person than she did through her pictures. She appeared to blush - yeah, let's say she blushed when I said that. I'm pretty sure she did. Once she reads this, she can let me know if she did.

I drove off back to home with a satisfied feeling after date 1 and was (and am) very anxious for date 2 to take place. We established an idea for a date 2 that I consider to be a revolutionary contribution to the dating world....and I will let you know about that idea next week.

Bet/Don't Bet on it - Fools Gold and Week 1 Picks

For all of you folks who have placed a bet in the NFL before - have you ever seen a line too good to be true, bet on that outcome, only to see it fail miserably?

In this situation, have you ever encountered the "group think" of betting, where everyone sees the same thing you do in the above situation and sees no way in hell of a bet losing? All of my friends can remember the Monday Night game between an undefeated Bears squad and a reeling Arizona team. The Bears came out flat, falling behind 20-0 before making an inspired comeback that helped create the famous "Crown Their Ass" speech of Dennis Green. Unfortunately, we all bet on the Bears to cover about a 13 point spread. I can count on my hand how many times I've won bets where me and all of my friends were on the same side of a winning bet.

The truth is - one must look at lines like this a little closer than your normal lines when gambling. If you do some research on lines that you see that look too good to be true, it may help you stay away from games like this, or in some cases, bet on the other team. That's not to say that those bets always lose- because they don't. If you want to plop down the money on those teams, that's perfectly fine and I wish you the best of luck (as long as I'm not betting the other side).

This year with the blog, I decided to pick a game each week of a line that looks too good to be true - I'll call it the Fool's Gold play of the week. Sometimes I will bet it, sometimes I will avoid it. I have been in a Yahoo pick'em league for many years and like to use the public's perception of a pick to gauge heavy favortism of one side over another. I like to look at games where one team is being picked over another (by the spread) at a 70%+ clip. One particular game stands out for me in week 1.

NYG (-3) at Washington -  Right now on Yahoo, the Giants are being picked at a 76% rate, which isn't the highest percentage (NE - 86%, Phil - 80%, Ariz & Cle - 79% each), but to me, it's the line that stands out as the Fool's Gold play of the week. All the talk this offseason on the Redskins has been about the mediocre QB battle betweeen Rex Grossman and John Beck, with the former winning the "battle". So why such a small line on what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFC, perhaps the league? One reason here is that it's a divisional/rivalry game, and another is that Opening Week of football can sometimes be a crapshoot. It's also a road game for the Giants - which can't be discounted. The oddsmakers haven't really moved this line since releasing it, despite the heavy Joe Public leaning on the Giants. When I see things like that happening, I tend to lean towards the other side. (No play, but would lean Wash +3)



Week 1 picks (amount bet on each TBD - will post later)
NO/GB Under 47.5 - I like defense to succeed in the first game of the year.
Balt/Pitt Over 36.5 - I've usually been on the under train for this rivalry, but I think these teams' offenses are gonna each get their teams into the 20s. Not as high scoring as their playoff matchup, but I expect each offense to have at least one long TD through the air.
TB -1.5 over Det - Everyone on the Detroit wagon, many think Tampa is a fluke from last year - not me.
StL +3.5 over Phil - I made a killing on StL last year because of oddsmaker/public disrespect. StL will keep it close and may win.
SD -8.5 over Minn - SD is a talented team who will win the division running away as long as their special teams isn't as atrocious as last year. Meanwhile, I don't believe in Minnesota and McNabb's chances.
Carolina +7 over Arizona - I can't spot Arizona this many points. Carolina will be better than last year, rookie QB or not.
Dallas +6.5 over NYJ - Dallas improved under Garrett last year (5-3 close to the season with Kitna as their QB). I am also playing the 9/11 angle (i.e. the Jets having too much pressure playing in NY on the 10 year anniversary of 9/11).

I'll update the actual numbers that I get for each of these games, but I am 99.9% certain these will be my bets.

Enjoy the opening weekend of football, starting with Thursday's battle of the past two Super Bowl champs.

Not gonna bet the side, but I'd like New Orleans +4.5 if I had to bet it.

Daters Gonna Date (Chapter 2)

It's been a week since I started using the dating site, and I must say my opinion of it fluctuated a lot in my first 48 hours of using it.

Here's a link for part 1 of my online dating (intro)


Initial impressions, first 24 hours

After setting up my account and answering personality questions that would presumably match me up with ladies that had similar personalities, I browsed through the list of girls that they said I matched up well with. I had no idea how I would "approach" these girls, so my strategy was to take a few things from each of their profiles and try starting a "conversation" about the said topics.

My first week goal was to message a few girls a day, with the expectation that some wouldn't respond. I started with my strategy and started messaging a few girls. The first day total of messages was about 6 or 7. No messages back.

Great. Now it was feeling exactly like applying for jobs when I was unemployed. The profile and picture acting as the cover letter/resume and the girls as the jobs I am applying for. Except in this case, I was not as frustrated with the dating site as I would be applying for work. I figure some patience and due dilligence.

A few more messages sent the next day, no response yet. I had in mind a goal of messaging throughout the week and see the results that came from it, so no worries.

Some Breakthrough

As I am in between doctor's appointments Monday evening, I reach out to another girl and finally get a response back like 20-30 minutes later. After a few exchanges the same evening, we started talking on yahoo messenger. These conversations would take place a few times the next 3 days, a few hours each convo. We ended up setting up a date for this upcoming Tuesday. She seems to have a lot in common and contributes a lot to the conversations, which with most new people, I'm not used to.

In the meanwhile, there were a few other responses, including a facebook connection that has resulted in some conversation - but not as much. So out of the 12 or so messages I sent out, I batted 25%, which is a lot better of a ratio than I could say about a job hunt - so perhaps it wasn't as correct of an analogy as I made it out to be.

Must say that I am impressed with the site so far. It might be one of the better decisions I made in the 2nd half of 2011 - time will tell. All I know is that I "talked" to a lot more girls (or so I think they're women) on this site this week than I would have in any given week.

I'm not the type of guy who picks up girls at bars or goes to clubs and gets women that way. Pretty much every girl I've met and gotten to know has been because she was friends with my friend and we just so happened to meet that way. I feel like I've exhausted just about all of those options, so the dating site was the next logical step.

With a date in my back pocket for this week, I'd say it's been so far, so good. I hope my update next week will be sharing the same sentiments.

Ruining the Fantasy: My Biggest Fantasy Football Pet Peeves

I just got back from hanging out at my friend Nick's. Towards the end of the night, we started discussing something that will be part of his next podcast- (here's a link of his podcast that he does with another friend and B-Bo Knows reader Chris Williams). The topic of conversation was fantasy football and some of its downfalls. This is a topic that I've been wanting to write about for a while, and no better time to do it than a week away from the NFL season starting. In no particular order, here are some pet peeves of mine concerning fantasy football:

(1) Caring more about your fantasy team than your actual favorite team. One problem with fantasy leagues that has developed over the years is people rooting more for their fantasy team than their team itself. It's not true for all fantasy owners, but there are many people who make less-than-convincing arguments that they want their fantasy football player (let's say Adrian Peterson) rush for 200 yards and 4 TDs, but in a 45-35 Bears victory. There's no possible way you can convince me that you rooting for a guy to do well against your team but rooting for the team to win isn't contradicting your fanhood. If you have Adrian Peterson, great. Start him against your favorite team, as you cannot bench a guy of his talent. But don't actively root for him to do well when in effect, it's actually doing harm to your real team.

(2) If I'm not in your league, I really don't care who is on your team. You'd think that me being a fantasy football nut that I'd be more interested in your team. Nope. Not one bit. If I'm not in the league in question, I care very little about your round-by-round analysis. Sure, there's some aspects that may be interesting to mention (like a tidbit on when a guy got drafted). But if I don't ask about your team, you don't really need to tell me everything about your team. Best of luck to your team is the most supportive thing I can say. I hope you win.

These last three are more about the leagues themselves vs. actual critiques of fantasy football.

(3) Any league that has less than 12 teams is not a real league.  I know a few people that play in 8 team leagues and tell me all about their stacked teams. Guess what? Your team SHOULD be stacked. In a 15 round draft setup, a 12-team league drafts 180 players. In an 8-team league, it's only 120. That leaves an extra 60 guys on the free agent wire that would normally be owned in a regular (i.e. 12 team) league. I draw the line at 10-team leagues, but don't do those for money. All of my leagues are 12 teams, and I'd actually like to get into a 14 or 16 team league. That's where great fantasy owners separate themselves from average ones. Otherwise, every team is an all-star team and more of a crapshoot than it already is.

(4) Don't trade me a player before the season starts that you drafted many many rounds after the player you wanted. If I wanted the player that you offered me in a trade, I would have picked him in one of the 4-5 rounds before you picked him. Please don't try playing me for a fool. It also doesn't help when the garbage player that you offer to me is off your team about a week later.

(5) Please look at my roster before offering me a trade. I am not going to trade someone on my team if it's a thin position on my team. I am also not going to accept a trade when the player(s) I will be getting in return offer no value to my team. Please look at my roster when you are offering a trade and make sure the trade finds a way to benefit both trades.

There's probably others I can't think of right now, but these are the main ones. If this offended you as a fantasy owner, good.

To all of you fantasy football players, best of luck - I really do mean that. Just don't lose sight of your real team and don't play me for a fool if you're in a league with me.

College Football - Week 1 Bets

....

Sike!

None.

Are you shocked? I kinda am. I usually have some kind of action every day of the NCAA season outside of the bowl weekends.

It's necessary for me to maintain discipline this year, especially in week 1 where absolutely nothing looks great to bet. The cupcake part of the schedule is right now for teams such as Alabama (38 point favorites), Ohio State (laying 34 against Kent State), and other ridiculous spreads.

LSU against Oregon would be the only game I'd consider betting, but I have no read on that game.

If you have followed this blog since last year (almost reached the one year mark of the blog being active), you know that this discipline is somewhat rare. My main point of emphasis this year when it comes to gambling- and it should be yours too - is not to force bets for the sake of betting.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend  everyone.

Tempering My Expectations

Last year was the first year of gambling every week of the NFL season where I ended up profitting. A sharp record of 44-29 in the regular season (an additional 6-5 in the playoffs) led to $605 profit/$88 in postseason. For those of you who know gambling, I'll give you a breakdown on how I did in analyzing certain angles of the games. I'll combine playoffs and regular season:

Betting on:
Favorites - 9-13 (-$257)
Underdogs - 19-10 ($313)
Overs - 13-6 ($430)
Unders - 8-4 ($267)

If only I could have avoided betting on favorites! I had an over/under streak of 10 in a row in December (note: for gambling novices, over/unders are the lines set by Vegas that indicate the # of total points by both teams expected to be scored by both teams), which really pushed me over the edge.

So what does this mean for me this year?

Absolutely....nothing.

Brand new season means blank slate. It means different trends will have to be analyzed, different teams will have to be considered as good teams to back or bet against in favorable spots (i.e. fading teams). It also means that I have to maintain my same discipline that I had last year in order to profit again.

This gambling discipline includes not betting heavy amounts during a streak of winning and not chasing (betting for the sake of trying to "chase your losses"). Another thing I hope to do better this year is betting on isolated (i.e. primetime) games just for the sake of betting. I've fallen into this trap too many times when I don't have a great read on a game.

In order to profit again, I'm gonna need to practice what I preach. While I'm not sure I should expect to do better than last year (59% clip over a season for a full-time gambler is about as high as you should expect), I think my knowledge of teams and trends - in addition to these habits I picked up on last year - should help me succeed in making some more money again in 2011-12.