| Week 3 | Week 4 |
| NFL 7-1, +394 | NCAA 2-8, -$400 |
| Totals 3-0, $213 | Totals 0-1, -$110 |
| MLs 2-0, $126 | MLs 0-3, -$170 |
| Spreads, 2-1, $55 | Spreads 2-4, -$120 |
| YTD: 15-7-3, +$389 | YTD: 8-12, -$325 |
| Totals: 7-1-1, +$327 | Totals: 0-3, -$220 |
| MLs: 2-0, +$126 | MLs: 0-3, -$170 |
| Spreads: 6-6-2, -$64 | Spreads: 8-6, +$65 |
Between the footballs, I am 23-19-3 and up $64. Ever since my opening night Under debacle, I haven't lost a bet when wagering on over/under totals (7-0-1) - leaving off exactly where I was last year.
One lesson learned from this past week is very simple: Don't bet on teams that you know absolutely nothing about.
I know this sounds simple and common sense, but sometimes reading about one of these teams and how they are perceived by smart handicappers can get a novice like me to throw money on a team. This happened a few times this past Saturday with college football. Outside of my viewing of Big Ten games, prime time/isolated games and matchups featuring highly regarded teams, I know very little about college football. My betting angles are highly determined by certain guys on the advice site I use (covers.com) that I trust.
It's always better to bet on teams/games where you've watched these teams at least once or twice and read some pieces on teams. There's too many games for people to be experts on every single team/conference in the nation. I always believed that studying up on a smaller conference that doesn't get bet heavily would be the best way to make a living gambling, but I've never gotten around to following my advice on that.
Blog note: I haven't narrowed down any NCAA picks yet, so I'll save that for tomorrow or Saturday morning. I was just too damn bored to put off writing my NFL picks blog for the week.
Fools Gold Pick of the Week - NFL Week 4
The Fools Gold pick moved to 3-0 with an ugly Seahawks winning (which I happened to bet the money line on instead of taking the points). Most of the time, I'll take the points but I felt confident that Arizona wouldn't win - yet alone cover. Looking to make this 4-0, so here goes nothing:
Buffalo -3/3.5 at Cincinnati - How could Buffalo only be three point favorites coming off of an incredible come-from-behind victory against their division rivals (New England) and Cincy coming off of a dismal performance against an equally dismal team (San Fran)? One word: letdown.
Buffalo was pulling an 0-fer against New England in their past 15 games against them and was determined to end that streak - even after they spotted Brady and company three touchdowns before the last-second chip shot field goal. A mental letdown is to be expected against a non-divisional opponent.
Whether it be Cedric Benson (who is awaiting word on his suspension at the moment) or Bernard Scott, I expect the Bengals to be able to run the ball like they did last year against the Bills (Benson went for 25 carries and 124 yards in a home loss).
Also, the Bengals come into Week 4 with the third-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Granted, these teams they faced aren't necessarily offensive juggernauts (Bengals, Broncos, Niners), but I do think they'll keep this lower-scoring than what the Bills have been comfortable with so far this year.
I am aware of the loss that the Bengals had in this matchup last year. I just believe that at this moment in the season, the Bills are due for a stinker. The circumstances seem ripe for one.
Likely betting: Cincy +3 (hoping to get it at 3.5 by game time). YTD: 3-0 (2-0 on games I've bet of these Fools picks)
Other NFL Picks I'm scoping
Boy, would I love to keep this 12-2-2 run of the past two weeks going. I know I have a chance myself to encounter a Buffalo Bills letdown, but no reason to think that I can't continue to progress as a smart NFL gambler.
Houston -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh - Already booked. My book has fluctuated anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 for this game, and I don't think it's going to get down to the key -3 number, so I figured I'd lock it in now. I love this matchup for Houston's pass attack against Pittsburgh's average secondary. Also love the matchup for Houston's pass rush vs. Pittsburgh's weakened line, which got burned alive against the Colts last week.
Chicago -6 vs. Carolina - I think Carolina (particularly Newton) is in for a rude awakening against a Bears defense that was made to look average against the Packers - this tends to happen against all teams that play the Packers. Carolina's running game has been non-existent so far, and I think the Bears defense will be able to exploit this and force a couple of turnovers on Newton. A defensive score would not shock me. I think the Bears win this by 14+. Also considering the under (currently at 42)
San Fran +9 at Philly - I think this will be the third game in a row that Vick does not finish a game. Their offensive line is pedestrian - Patrick Willis and company are licking their chops at building off of their defensive domination against the Bengals. Normally, I'd be worried about the west coast team travelling east, but San Fran stayed out east after their tilt in Ohio. I think Vernon Davis will finally become a consistent part of the San Fran offense that they desperately need after his 100+ yard performance. I think this stays within the spread (hoping it climbs to 10 for a little more insurance), with a mild chance of a San Fran upset.
NYJ +3.5 at Baltimore - Mangold should be coming back this week - an important component of the Jets' offensive line. They'll need him against Ngata and the rest of the Ravens pass rush. I think this will be the defensive, smash mouth battle that the NFL has been lacking this year. Getting the half point here will be key - I think this will be a game decided by a field goal one way or the other.
Other sides I am considering: Seattle +4, Tennessee pick'em
Totals I am considering: Phil/SF Under 44, Chi/Car Under 42, Pitt/Hou Over 45, Balt/NYJ Under 42.5
Check www.twitter.com/brianbolek (or Twitter @brianbolek) for updates
I may or may not end up posting an NCAA picks blog and may just post my plays on Twitter. Stay tuned.
Start your weekends off right, my friends and family. Love you all.
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