Of course, everyone loves being right. Who wouldn't? But there are certain aspects of life where being right gives us more satisfaction than in others.
For me, of course, it is in the area of gambling - particulaly sports betting. The feeling of a winning bet is hard to describe to someone who hasn't placed and won a bet. I dare not compare it to sex because....well.....yeah.
But even a subset within gambling that gives me the most satisfaction are the particular bets that you know that most people aren't on. If you've read my week 1 and 2 previews of NFL, you see a section titled "Fool's Gold", which highlights a game each week where a spread seems too good to be true, a bet that just seems like it's begging for action on one side.
These are the bets that make me proud to be a gambler. Like I've said before, these sucker bets, also known in the gambling community as "square bets", are not always wrong. Last week's NE game against Miami is the perfect example of this - a game I lost money on.
However, today had some interesting lines that screamed "BET ME!!!", which in Gamblish means "bet the other side". Baltimore was example 1 of this - over 85% of people in Yahoo pick'em odds leagues selected them. The more I thought about it, the easier it was for me to bet Tennessee.
Second BET ME was actually one where I bet into the side where I shouldn't have - Dallas laying (spotting) three points at San Fran. Yes, I bet against my team - but make no mistake, as my friend Tim can attest to, I was rooting hard for San Fran to win this game. I didn't think the bet was square until I saw that all 11 people in our pick'em league picked Dallas. For the bet's sake (not for my fandom's sake), Dallas came back and made the game a non-bet with the 3 point win.
Third BET ME was Philly laying 2.5 points against Atlanta, who got spanked by Chicago in Week 1. I think many people had short memories on Atlanta - who are a dominant home team in the Matty Ryan era - losing only 2 games that he has started in the Georgia Dome since he became their franchise QB. Yeah, I come off pompous by saying I saw Atlanta covering a mile away, because there was severe doubt on their cover here (it took till the last minutes for Atl to seal the deal).
You'd think with all of this hot shit talk on my part that I did awesome in the pick'em league, but quite the opposite. My picks against the spread were 4-9-2 (2-0-1 in the above games, 2-9-1 in the others). However, as I was getting to a few paragraphs ago before getting into specific bets, there are certain bets that you want to win more than others, just so you can tell people, "I was right!"
And despite the piss-poor record in the pick'em league, I actually ended up being 5-1-1 with my bets.
Winning bets were: Ten +6; Ind/Cle Over 39 (I tailed a bet that a respected gambler that I read a lot about was making here); Pitt -14; Atl +2.5 and Atlanta Over 23.5 team points.
Losing bet was: Wash -3.5
Push was: Dallas -3
I make my initial reads in a blog on Thursday or Friday but usually don't lock my bets in until Saturday night or Sunday morning. This week, I was unsure until Sunday morning on my final plan of attack as far as bets go. I try updating my bets on my Twitter, if you ever care to follow it (www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in Twitter language - @brianbolek). This is where you will find my bets for the day as I make them.
Monday night - I might not bet, but let's be serious. I'd lean St Louis if I hear of Jackson being healthy, but will likely lean in the direction of the Under 44 (or so) for that game.
My goal for the Fool's Bet column throughout the 17 weeks is a 12-5 or better record. I will likely bet it every week and hope that this goal - if achieved - makes me a profit.
Yes, I know I'm being an asshole with this blog here, but I don't care. One thing about me that you can't discredit is that I will put my money where my mouth is, so if you feel like I am on the wrong side of a bet, I am usually up for making side bets in addition to my 4-5 games of betting.
I hope I'm right more often, especially at clips like this. But realistically, you have to expect no more than a 53-55% winning percentage at best over a long span of betting. There will be those weeks where you lose 75%-100% of your bets, but always gotta keep your head even keel when betting.
Bet against some of these future sucker bets at your own risk! I'm here to help you out and make sure you don't overlook certain aspects of games that go into making point spreads what they are.
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