Lucky number 13.
Week 13 is about the time where the season starts winding down. Some teams have their eye on a bye, others are battling for a chance at the playoffs, and others are, well, Kansas City, Philadelphia & Jacksonville.
Also, if you're lucky, you're competing for a spot in a fantasy football playoff in one of your eight leagues. Lots to look forward to this week in that regard.
I'll approach this week a little differently - going with games I won't touch, games I am considering & games I will bet.
MC Hammer Games (Can't Touch Them)
Dal -10.5 vs. Phil (may bet the total, can't bet the side)
Cle -1.5 at Oak
NYJ -4.5 vs. Ariz (lean Ariz but too hard to gauge this one)
Buf -6 vs. Jax (Jax best efforts have come on the road, still can't bet this though)
Cin -1.5 at SD
Car -3 at KC
SF -7 at StL
Pitt -8 vs. Balt
Hou -6.5 at Ten
Cle -1.5 at Oak
Christian Pondering
Min +8 at GB (I think Min keeps this within a score)
Sea +3.5 at Chi (Gonna be a defensive battle - in these case I usually like the points)
Mia +7.5 vs. NE (likely to pass on this, but this one seems deceiving)
Locking In
Den -7 vs TB (seems like a lot, but TB can't defend the pass)
Det -5 vs. Ind (fool's gold game of the week - I expect Detroit to win by double digits)
Good luck in your picks, fantasy teams and real teams. Have a great start to your Decembers.
11/30/2012
11/23/2012
NFL Week 12
As many of you have already read many times, I went to a Bears game for the second week in a row. Like the week before, I witnessed a pathetic Bears offense and eventual loss - combined losses to Houston & San Francisco by a 42-10 margin.
I promise to all Bears fans that I will not attend any more of their games this year, as I have witnessed 67% of their losses. Do I think they'll bounce back this week? Yes I do. Will I bet it? No I won't. Should I keep asking myself questions and then answering them? I think I should stop.
With only 12 games on Sunday and a dud of a game on Monday, there's not much on the slate that catches my eye. I'll likely be able to catch some/all of the Saints/49ers game, which I believe is the clear afternoon game of the day (Packers at Giants at night is the clear game of the day).
Thoughts on each game:
Oakland +8 at Cincy: Oakland fits the system here - blowout losses against the spread in their last three games & Cincy w/ blowout wins against the spread in their last two. Likely bet on Oakland, even though I picked Cincy in a couple of survivor pools.
Pitt -1.5 at Cle: I like Cleveland here. One of those 2-8 records that really doesn't tell the story on how competitive they've been this year. Probably won't bet it, but it'll likely be Cleveland or nothing here.
Buf +3 at Indy: This is the Fool's Gold Play of the week. Everyone loves Indy here, but they have no defense and I believe Buffalo will be able to move the ball well on the ground against them (Indy allows 4.7 yards/carry - 4th worst - while Spiller leads the league w/ 6.6 yards/carry). Indy is not as good as their 6-4 shows. Buffalo will be a bet
Denver -10.5 at KC: For me here, it's either KC +10.5 or no play. Divisional rivalry game - you can usually throw records out the window. KC sprung an upset last year against GB in a similar spot of the year - be careful backing Denver here.
Ten -4 at Jax: MC Hammer Game of the Week. As in, I can't touch this one on either end. No way can I lay points with Tennessee on the road, but no way I can bet on Jacksonville (again) at home, where they've lost each game by double digits.
Atl -1 at TB: Should be the best of the Noon time games. A Tampa win here could put them in good position for a playoff push for the rest of the year. No leans here.
Sea -3 at Mia: Mia fits the system of a team who hasn't covered in three straight. Likely to take them here. I don't think Seattle has earned the right to be road favorites yet.
Balt (pick'em) at SD: I already bet SD here. Great spot for them (or at least great spot to fade Baltimore). Ravens are in the middle of a Pittsburgh sandwich on their schedule and in the middle is a game thousands of miles away. Big let down spot here.
SF -1 at NO: My only worry here is Kaepernick having a rough go in his first road start in what may be the noisiest stadium in the league, but overall, I believe San Fran should be able to move the ball consistently and slow down NO enough to take this one. May bet San Fran. System play here in effect with NO winning three straight against the spread (which means fade them).
StL +1 at Ariz: Another MC Hammer Game. Arizona hasn't won since starting 4-0. I think they win here, but I sure as hell won't bet on it.
GB +2.5 at NYG: With public perception on the Giants being as low as its been this year since their opener against the Cowboys, this should be a good time to back them, especially after a bye week.
Car -2.5 at Phil: Another ugly game. Can't believe Carolina is a road favorite here, but find it hard to trust Philly. At all. No bet.
Hope everyone had a great Turkey Day. Have a good weekend.
I promise to all Bears fans that I will not attend any more of their games this year, as I have witnessed 67% of their losses. Do I think they'll bounce back this week? Yes I do. Will I bet it? No I won't. Should I keep asking myself questions and then answering them? I think I should stop.
With only 12 games on Sunday and a dud of a game on Monday, there's not much on the slate that catches my eye. I'll likely be able to catch some/all of the Saints/49ers game, which I believe is the clear afternoon game of the day (Packers at Giants at night is the clear game of the day).
Thoughts on each game:
Oakland +8 at Cincy: Oakland fits the system here - blowout losses against the spread in their last three games & Cincy w/ blowout wins against the spread in their last two. Likely bet on Oakland, even though I picked Cincy in a couple of survivor pools.
Pitt -1.5 at Cle: I like Cleveland here. One of those 2-8 records that really doesn't tell the story on how competitive they've been this year. Probably won't bet it, but it'll likely be Cleveland or nothing here.
Buf +3 at Indy: This is the Fool's Gold Play of the week. Everyone loves Indy here, but they have no defense and I believe Buffalo will be able to move the ball well on the ground against them (Indy allows 4.7 yards/carry - 4th worst - while Spiller leads the league w/ 6.6 yards/carry). Indy is not as good as their 6-4 shows. Buffalo will be a bet
Denver -10.5 at KC: For me here, it's either KC +10.5 or no play. Divisional rivalry game - you can usually throw records out the window. KC sprung an upset last year against GB in a similar spot of the year - be careful backing Denver here.
Ten -4 at Jax: MC Hammer Game of the Week. As in, I can't touch this one on either end. No way can I lay points with Tennessee on the road, but no way I can bet on Jacksonville (again) at home, where they've lost each game by double digits.
Atl -1 at TB: Should be the best of the Noon time games. A Tampa win here could put them in good position for a playoff push for the rest of the year. No leans here.
Sea -3 at Mia: Mia fits the system of a team who hasn't covered in three straight. Likely to take them here. I don't think Seattle has earned the right to be road favorites yet.
Balt (pick'em) at SD: I already bet SD here. Great spot for them (or at least great spot to fade Baltimore). Ravens are in the middle of a Pittsburgh sandwich on their schedule and in the middle is a game thousands of miles away. Big let down spot here.
SF -1 at NO: My only worry here is Kaepernick having a rough go in his first road start in what may be the noisiest stadium in the league, but overall, I believe San Fran should be able to move the ball consistently and slow down NO enough to take this one. May bet San Fran. System play here in effect with NO winning three straight against the spread (which means fade them).
StL +1 at Ariz: Another MC Hammer Game. Arizona hasn't won since starting 4-0. I think they win here, but I sure as hell won't bet on it.
GB +2.5 at NYG: With public perception on the Giants being as low as its been this year since their opener against the Cowboys, this should be a good time to back them, especially after a bye week.
Car -2.5 at Phil: Another ugly game. Can't believe Carolina is a road favorite here, but find it hard to trust Philly. At all. No bet.
Hope everyone had a great Turkey Day. Have a good weekend.
11/21/2012
San Franchised - Jen's 30th Bday in Words & Pics
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| On the Golden Gate w/ my Girl of Gold |
So you're probably wondering how Jen's birthday trip to San Fran was...What's that, you caught all of our pictures and statuses on Facebook? Well...uhm....read this anyways.
Actually, there's a lot more to our trip than what was mentioned on the incessant messages, the latter of which were not replied to for the simple fact that the Niners absolutely Pwned the Bears on Monday Night Football.
(As I was waiting to get me and Jen some In-N-Out Burger, I overheard some idiot Bears fan backing out of a bet he made with a 49ers friend of his which would require him to shave his head since the Bears lost. I absolutely hate...HATE...when people back out of bets - more on In-N-Out later).
Happy 30th to Jen!
Here's some randomness from the trip:
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| The Full House houses (we think) |
- Planes, Trains, Automobiles...and many more forms of transportation were taken on our trip. Starting from our flight to San Francisco, here's how our daily transportation went:
Saturday: Car to Airport, Plane, Shuttle Bus
Sunday: Walk to Golden Gate (about a 3-to-4 mile walk from our place), Taxi (including a free ride down crookedest street of Lombard Street), Boat to Alcatraz
Monday: Walk through Lombard Street, Trolley to Chinatown, Taxi to the Painted Ladies, Bus to the Full House houses and three more bus rides, including a round-trip to/from the Niners game
Tuesday: Shuttle, plane, car back to our Chi-town palace.
Needless to say, we made the most out of every type of available transportation in the past four days.
- Did You Know....That Interstate 80 ends in San Francisco? It feels like I-80 runs through every major city. I wonder how long it would take to drive from one end to the other.
- It feels like big upsets in sports occur whenever I'm on vacation and I can't watch them. Oregon loses to Stanford (which I heard the end to in the shuttlebus radio), Baylor destroys Kansas State, which moves Notre Dame to the #1 spot for the first time in 400 years*. I'm not sure which upset I'm more surprised with, but anyone who watches college football knows that November is a great month for these upsets of previously unbeaten teams. It's so so hard to play a great game for all 12/13 games before the Bowl season comes around. Even though Matt Barkley is out this week, I wouldn't be shocked if Notre Dame lost this week - just so hard to win week in/week out.
*slight exaggeration - Jen had a great birthday trip here, except...for her experience at Candlestick. And no, I'm not just talking about the drubbing that her Bears took. I was not aware of the Stick's hostile treatment of visiting fans until earlier this year when reading about some Saints' fans experiencing some harassing douchebags. When she went to go get some food during the game, Jen experienced some of this as she was waiting in line and was right near some idiots who were fighting. Also, some guy was giving her a hard time for wearing her Peppers jersey and was questioning her knowledge of what the GSH initials were in reference to (she correctly said George Halas, while the idiot thought it may have been for Gale Sayers).
I know all teams have their share of assholes at games, but I felt bad that Jen had to experience this, especially with me not being there at the time to help her out of the situation. - As always, the best parts of any trip are the ones you don't expect or plan...and this trip was no exception. It's hard for us to determine what spontaneous moment we liked the best from our trip. There was the moment where a homeless guy scared the crap out of Jen by hiding behind a tree branch full of leaves that he was holding, only to pop out and scare her. There was also our cab driver who was a delight and stopped our taxi meter about 10 minutes before we got out of the cab - during that time, he drove us down the crooked part of Lombard Street (the crookedest street in the country/world). If you have the chance to go to San Fran, you should see this street.
- People watching at Monday Night Football. Our great seats at the game allowed us to see a few celebrities walking the sidelines before the game. Among them were Jeremy Piven (actor), Drew Rosenhaus (NFL Super Agent - think new age version of Jerry Maguire) & the ESPN crew (Trent Dilfer and old 49er Steve Young among them). Oh yeah, and there were the cheerleaders dancing in front of us. Yeahhhhh...
- San Fran is so damn expensive. It's not normal to want to go back to Chicago because the prices are cheaper, but that's the case when comparing the Gold Rush city to the Windy one. It felt like everything was Chicago prices multiplied by an additional 20%. I'd love to live in the city if it wasn't for the damn prices.
- You know you're a fatass...when you're charging Diet Cokes that you are buying from a vending machine at your hotel. I can't believe my first ever use of EasyPass was to buy cold carbonated beverages for me and Jen from a Coke machine. I can hear all of you shaking your head...and I don't blame you.
- No matter whether Cutler played or not, the Bears would not have won the game we went to. If you're not a football fan, you may not know Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears starter) missed his first game of the year due to a concussion, leaving them with backup Jason Campbell to face a San Francisco 49ers defense whose mouth was foaming at the possibility of facing the Bears' weak offensive front and slow-footed backup. Cutler would have done better (I hope), but he hasn't really done anything this year to make me think he would have been able to match Colin Kaepernick's offensive output.
- If you're a fan of historical stuff, there's no question that you should visit Alcatraz. I believe Jen's favorite site on the trip was visiting Golden Gate Bridge, which is an excellent choice and a must-do for anyone visiting the city. However, the one thing I didn't do on my trip in January was the one big thing missing from my San Francisco experience - visiting Alcatraz. Getting to hear the history of the prison, including how the US government helped form the island into an inescapable (supposedly) fortress, was an amazing story. Hearing of all the escape stories from the island made me realize just how clever criminals can be - if only they applied that same reasoning and intelligence in the real world as upright citizens. I read the book about some of these escapes on the flight home - loved it. As far as anyone knows, no one has ever successfully escaped Alcatraz (many have drowned or died from hypothermia since the San Francisco Bay are so cold - some folks were never found and are assumed dead).
- In-N-Out Burger was ok...but definitely not better than Five Guys. Yeah, I said it. Me and Jen both devoured our double double's, don't get me wrong. They just weren't the high quality burger that we've grown to love from Five Guys. If you disagree, you are wrong. Way way wrong.
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| The cheerleaders came by to say Hi (and then left really quick after that) |
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| Jen trying not to show her disappointed face |
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| Fitting location for this Alcatraz Pic |
11/16/2012
NFL Week 11
NFL season is halfway over - I know many women who lost their boyfriends/husbands to the season as they always do.
I don't remember a year recently where the playoff picture was more clear this early in the season, at least in the AFC.
Take a look at the standings and you'll see a large gap with teams. Every current playoff team in the AFC (if the playoffs started today) has 6 or more wins, while every non-playoff team has 4 or less. Can one of these 4-5 teams come up and take a playoff berth away from one of these current 6+ win teams? Yeah - I don't think the Colts are as good as their 6-3 record shows. And if Big Ben misses a long period of time with the Steelers, they may struggle to get to 9/10 wins, especially with how much they've relied on the pass (not what you'd expect from the Steelers (I do like their chances this week though). My best shot of an AFC team to rise from 4-5 to make a run: Cincy.
NFC is a little more balanced, with eight teams above .500. If Cutler misses significant time, the Bears could be a team in free fall. Their offense hasn't really been stellar since their Week 5 win at Jacksonville - remember that the game against Tennessee where they dropped 51 was more special teams/defense than anything. They have broken the 300+ yard mark in less than half their games this year. Granted, their defense has been amazing, but it's really hard to rely on pick-6s and special team returns when you start facing the best teams in the league. I think Green Bay is going to take the NFC Central. I say the Bears hold onto the Wild Card.
Oh yeah, did I mention I'm going to a game this weekend? A prime-time one in fact. Bears/Niners end what promises to be an exciting Week 11, which I will be spending in the beautiful city of San Francisco w/ my beautiful girlfriend.
Only problem is that the game has lost some of its luster thanks to (1) both starting QBs potentially missing the game due to concussions suffered in Week 10, (2) Bears offense laying a stinker and losing 10-3 against Houston, (3) 49ers tying against the Rams, which feels like a loss in my opinion. The Bears' loss isn't a huge surprise (although I didn't think they'd look that sloppy - the weather didn't help), but the 49ers not beating the Rams was.
I'm looking for the Bears to lose a lower scoring game - 17-10 seems to fit. Only way Bears win against an elite defense like this is if they can score a TD or two on defense/special teams. Otherwise, I think Campbell is in for a long night against Willis, Bowman and the rest of the Niners wrecking crew.
Picks for Week 11:
NE -9 vs Indy - already booked. Indy is Fool's Gold. Not as good as their record. Patriots will roll.
Cle +7.5 at Dallas - already booked. Seems like an over-inflation based on Dallas winning last week. I expect a close game, maybe even a Cleveland win. Very scrappy team. Also, Dallas is too inconsistent to spot them this many points.
SD +7.5 at Denver - Division rivalry match-up - always hard to take this many points in a game like this. I expect San Diego's best effort here, with a 30-40% shot of an upset.
Pitt +3.5 vs. Balt - This line shifted almost a full touchdown w/ Big Ben's injury. I think giving Leftwich a full week of practice will allow the Steelers to not only stay competitive vs. their division rival, but also score the victory.
Good luck to everyone
I don't remember a year recently where the playoff picture was more clear this early in the season, at least in the AFC.
Take a look at the standings and you'll see a large gap with teams. Every current playoff team in the AFC (if the playoffs started today) has 6 or more wins, while every non-playoff team has 4 or less. Can one of these 4-5 teams come up and take a playoff berth away from one of these current 6+ win teams? Yeah - I don't think the Colts are as good as their 6-3 record shows. And if Big Ben misses a long period of time with the Steelers, they may struggle to get to 9/10 wins, especially with how much they've relied on the pass (not what you'd expect from the Steelers (I do like their chances this week though). My best shot of an AFC team to rise from 4-5 to make a run: Cincy.
NFC is a little more balanced, with eight teams above .500. If Cutler misses significant time, the Bears could be a team in free fall. Their offense hasn't really been stellar since their Week 5 win at Jacksonville - remember that the game against Tennessee where they dropped 51 was more special teams/defense than anything. They have broken the 300+ yard mark in less than half their games this year. Granted, their defense has been amazing, but it's really hard to rely on pick-6s and special team returns when you start facing the best teams in the league. I think Green Bay is going to take the NFC Central. I say the Bears hold onto the Wild Card.
Oh yeah, did I mention I'm going to a game this weekend? A prime-time one in fact. Bears/Niners end what promises to be an exciting Week 11, which I will be spending in the beautiful city of San Francisco w/ my beautiful girlfriend.
Only problem is that the game has lost some of its luster thanks to (1) both starting QBs potentially missing the game due to concussions suffered in Week 10, (2) Bears offense laying a stinker and losing 10-3 against Houston, (3) 49ers tying against the Rams, which feels like a loss in my opinion. The Bears' loss isn't a huge surprise (although I didn't think they'd look that sloppy - the weather didn't help), but the 49ers not beating the Rams was.
I'm looking for the Bears to lose a lower scoring game - 17-10 seems to fit. Only way Bears win against an elite defense like this is if they can score a TD or two on defense/special teams. Otherwise, I think Campbell is in for a long night against Willis, Bowman and the rest of the Niners wrecking crew.
Picks for Week 11:
NE -9 vs Indy - already booked. Indy is Fool's Gold. Not as good as their record. Patriots will roll.
Cle +7.5 at Dallas - already booked. Seems like an over-inflation based on Dallas winning last week. I expect a close game, maybe even a Cleveland win. Very scrappy team. Also, Dallas is too inconsistent to spot them this many points.
SD +7.5 at Denver - Division rivalry match-up - always hard to take this many points in a game like this. I expect San Diego's best effort here, with a 30-40% shot of an upset.
Pitt +3.5 vs. Balt - This line shifted almost a full touchdown w/ Big Ben's injury. I think giving Leftwich a full week of practice will allow the Steelers to not only stay competitive vs. their division rival, but also score the victory.
Good luck to everyone
11/12/2012
Ties Suck
(Article I wrote for my fantasy football league)
I went to the Bears game and was watching the end of the 49ers/Rams game on my buddy's cell phone (he has Sunday NFL Ticket on his phone). Instead of watching the end of what was expected to be an easy win over an inferior opponent, I actually had to root for a tie as Bradford had the ball with less than two minutes in overtime.
Fortunately (I guess), the Niners didn't lose the game. But they didn't win it either. A tie? A tie?
Yes, a mother f'in tie.
Ties of any sort, of any kind, totally suck.
Want proof? Guys take ties off at weddings once they don't have to wear them anymore. They're restricting. Sure, your girl likes them, but they suck.
Need sports proof? College football outlawed ties when they instituted their overtime system almost 20 years ago. Likewise, hockey realized that people don't want to see ties, so in the regular season, if there is no score in the 5-minute overtime, there is a shootout.
Surprisingly, the NFL is the last sport that counts in America (sorry all other sports not named baseball, football, basketball and hockey) that has a possibility (albeit a very minute one) of there being no victor at the end of the day.
How do soccer fans do it in Europe? 1-1 draw. Scoreless draw? Even worse. (Any soccer fans here, I don't need a lecture on how I should appreciate the sport - it's boring.)
In my first competitive fantasy football money league, I was in a league where there were no fractions of points, so there were chances of getting ties in games, as opposed to the decimal system which makes it very difficult. In that rough season, I started the year with 10 straight non-winning weeks, including two (Yes, TWO) ties. When you tie and your team sucks, you might as well have lost the game.
When your team is good and it ties, you still have that "ehh" feeling.
No one should want a tie or root for one. If I ever tie in this league, I may bust out a few dozen F-bombs.
I went to the Bears game and was watching the end of the 49ers/Rams game on my buddy's cell phone (he has Sunday NFL Ticket on his phone). Instead of watching the end of what was expected to be an easy win over an inferior opponent, I actually had to root for a tie as Bradford had the ball with less than two minutes in overtime.
Fortunately (I guess), the Niners didn't lose the game. But they didn't win it either. A tie? A tie?
Yes, a mother f'in tie.
Ties of any sort, of any kind, totally suck.
Want proof? Guys take ties off at weddings once they don't have to wear them anymore. They're restricting. Sure, your girl likes them, but they suck.
Need sports proof? College football outlawed ties when they instituted their overtime system almost 20 years ago. Likewise, hockey realized that people don't want to see ties, so in the regular season, if there is no score in the 5-minute overtime, there is a shootout.
Surprisingly, the NFL is the last sport that counts in America (sorry all other sports not named baseball, football, basketball and hockey) that has a possibility (albeit a very minute one) of there being no victor at the end of the day.
How do soccer fans do it in Europe? 1-1 draw. Scoreless draw? Even worse. (Any soccer fans here, I don't need a lecture on how I should appreciate the sport - it's boring.)
In my first competitive fantasy football money league, I was in a league where there were no fractions of points, so there were chances of getting ties in games, as opposed to the decimal system which makes it very difficult. In that rough season, I started the year with 10 straight non-winning weeks, including two (Yes, TWO) ties. When you tie and your team sucks, you might as well have lost the game.
When your team is good and it ties, you still have that "ehh" feeling.
No one should want a tie or root for one. If I ever tie in this league, I may bust out a few dozen F-bombs.
11/10/2012
Week 10 NFL
I've procrastinated on my NFL betting blog, so I'll just go through all of my picks individually and say which ones I plan on betting:
Ind -3 at Jax - Took Jax - thought it would be a trap game for Indy. Wrong.
NYG -4 at Cin - May bet Cincy +4. This goes off of my betting system (Cincy hasn't covered in three straight games). Also, I think Cincy can take advantage of an over-rated NYG defense (NYG allows 6.1 yards per play - tied for fifth worst in the league. Bottom 5 in passing yards allowed/bottom 10 in rush yards allowed).
Ten +6 at Mia - Lean Miami (not sure how rusty Locker will be) but not going to bet this either way.
Det -2 at Min - Detroit has covered in four straight games, Minnesota has failed to cover in four straight. System play is Min +2.
Buf +11 at NE - Lean Buf +11. I think New England may relax a little against Buffalo, who is capable of scoring in bunches like NE. The Pats haven't covered their previous double digit spreads at home this year (lost straight up to Arizona and squeaked by NYJ in overtime).
Atl -2.5 at NO - I lean Atlanta -2.5 here. New Orleans was fortunate to escape their MNF game with a win (allowing only 6 points in 5 defensive red zone opportunities versus Philly). Their defense is horrible. Atlanta has something to prove still despite their perfect record.
SD +3 at TB - I lean SD +3 here. System play based on TB covering last two games by average of 14+. San Diego should be able to take advantage of TB's weak secondary (allowing 3rd-worst 7.5 yards/pass play).
Den -4 at Car - Ultimate trap/fool's gold game here. Denver's been rolling (three straight covers), which is exactly why this is a good time to fade them, especially with an important divisional game coming up. Carolina coming off of a couple decent performances (almost beat Chicago, beat down Washington). Should be a field goal game. Fool's Gold Pick: Car +4
Oak +7.5 at Balt - Lean Baltimore here, but you never know what kind of effort you'll get from Oakland. In year's past, this is a spot that Oakland comes up with a straight up win - wouldn't be shocked if they did.
NYJ +6 at Sea - I think the Jets will cover and have a good shot at winning. Rex Ryan has had a couple of weeks to prepare for a rookie QB. Seattle may win, but 6 points is too much.
Dal -1.5 at Phil - No touch game here. I'd lean Phil based on the no-covers in three straight system, but for this game, I don't want to test that out. Each team likes to shoot itself in the foot - hard to bet on teams like that.
Stl +11.5 at SF - SF has been a money machine at home in Harbaugh's stint w/ SF, but something tells me to lean St Louis here. System play here would be StL losing by average of 14+ in last two games. I think Jeff Fisher will have his team well-prepared after the bye.
Hou +1.5 at Chi - Liking Houston here. Only way Bears can win here IMO is to force several turnovers, which Houston has avoided well this year. Houston's D-Line vs. Bears O-Line will decide the game. I think this is a low-scoring game (17-13), with Houston winning. Is this the game where Chicago starts regressing a little? San Fran next on the schedule.
KC +12.5 at Pitt - System tells me to pick KC, especially since they're coming off of three straight double digit ATS losses and Pitt is on a 3 game ATS streak, but I may need 14+ points to take KC here.
Likely bets: Cin +4 (maybe Cin ML), SD +3, Car +4 (fool's gold pick), NYJ +6, Hou +1.5 (lots of dogs)
Still considering: Atl -2.5, Min +2
Good luck this week and have a good weekend.
Ind -3 at Jax - Took Jax - thought it would be a trap game for Indy. Wrong.
NYG -4 at Cin - May bet Cincy +4. This goes off of my betting system (Cincy hasn't covered in three straight games). Also, I think Cincy can take advantage of an over-rated NYG defense (NYG allows 6.1 yards per play - tied for fifth worst in the league. Bottom 5 in passing yards allowed/bottom 10 in rush yards allowed).
Ten +6 at Mia - Lean Miami (not sure how rusty Locker will be) but not going to bet this either way.
Det -2 at Min - Detroit has covered in four straight games, Minnesota has failed to cover in four straight. System play is Min +2.
Buf +11 at NE - Lean Buf +11. I think New England may relax a little against Buffalo, who is capable of scoring in bunches like NE. The Pats haven't covered their previous double digit spreads at home this year (lost straight up to Arizona and squeaked by NYJ in overtime).
Atl -2.5 at NO - I lean Atlanta -2.5 here. New Orleans was fortunate to escape their MNF game with a win (allowing only 6 points in 5 defensive red zone opportunities versus Philly). Their defense is horrible. Atlanta has something to prove still despite their perfect record.
SD +3 at TB - I lean SD +3 here. System play based on TB covering last two games by average of 14+. San Diego should be able to take advantage of TB's weak secondary (allowing 3rd-worst 7.5 yards/pass play).
Den -4 at Car - Ultimate trap/fool's gold game here. Denver's been rolling (three straight covers), which is exactly why this is a good time to fade them, especially with an important divisional game coming up. Carolina coming off of a couple decent performances (almost beat Chicago, beat down Washington). Should be a field goal game. Fool's Gold Pick: Car +4
Oak +7.5 at Balt - Lean Baltimore here, but you never know what kind of effort you'll get from Oakland. In year's past, this is a spot that Oakland comes up with a straight up win - wouldn't be shocked if they did.
NYJ +6 at Sea - I think the Jets will cover and have a good shot at winning. Rex Ryan has had a couple of weeks to prepare for a rookie QB. Seattle may win, but 6 points is too much.
Dal -1.5 at Phil - No touch game here. I'd lean Phil based on the no-covers in three straight system, but for this game, I don't want to test that out. Each team likes to shoot itself in the foot - hard to bet on teams like that.
Stl +11.5 at SF - SF has been a money machine at home in Harbaugh's stint w/ SF, but something tells me to lean St Louis here. System play here would be StL losing by average of 14+ in last two games. I think Jeff Fisher will have his team well-prepared after the bye.
Hou +1.5 at Chi - Liking Houston here. Only way Bears can win here IMO is to force several turnovers, which Houston has avoided well this year. Houston's D-Line vs. Bears O-Line will decide the game. I think this is a low-scoring game (17-13), with Houston winning. Is this the game where Chicago starts regressing a little? San Fran next on the schedule.
KC +12.5 at Pitt - System tells me to pick KC, especially since they're coming off of three straight double digit ATS losses and Pitt is on a 3 game ATS streak, but I may need 14+ points to take KC here.
Likely bets: Cin +4 (maybe Cin ML), SD +3, Car +4 (fool's gold pick), NYJ +6, Hou +1.5 (lots of dogs)
Still considering: Atl -2.5, Min +2
Good luck this week and have a good weekend.
11/08/2012
Politics (Not) As Usual - My First Year w/ Interest & Some Fun Political Stories & Facts
From the onset of 2012, this felt like a different year to me.
A year where I started to feel that standing on the sidelines as it relates to the political process was no longer an option.
Sure, it started with the trendy SOPA stuff--and from everything I've learned about politics in the past year, Congress will attempt to pass through similar legislation that could continue to threaten freedom of speech. But as I learned, sometimes it takes something relevant to an individual to say, "Wait a minute, maybe I should start educating myself on this stuff."
There are also plenty of other things I learned over the course of this year (and election season) that has me both optimistic about the future of our country and some things that have me disgusted with the process. I get that people are passionate about their politics. But please - (a) keep it civil, (b) keep it factual, and (c) keep it positive.
In too many cases, folks on both sides of the major parties could recite more negative stuff about the other guy than positive about their own. That's not a good sign for your guy if you're doing that.
Anywho, onward to the talking points:
The True 1%
While everyone was clamoring to see whether Obama would be able to survive this election season against his Republican opponent, history was made of a different kind for the bronze medalist in the presidential race.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received over a million votes (a record for Libertarians) and about 1% of the vote (just short of the party record). Considering the two big dogs spent almost 1000 times more combined than Johnson's campaign (2 billion to 3 million -> source) and got about 1000 times more coverage than former New Mexico governor, it is quite the accomplishment.
I don't know the exact number of votes he got from me and people I know, but it was at least a half dozen. Considering my circle of people isn't all that big, it's much larger than the national percentage. If Gary gives it another run in 2016, I will likely vote for him again, barring some other solid candidate would enter the race.
And no, once again, I wouldn't be wasting my vote.
Stat in the Hat
If you voted for Romney and didn't see this coming, you haven't been studying the stats.
And no, I don't mean the partisan polls on these slanted news networks. I mean Nate Silver's 538 blog, which was running on the NY Times website throughout the election.
If you haven't heard of him, Nate became a polarizing figure over the election cycle with his projections of the election through personalized statistical models, all of which showed Obama taking the electoral college by a much wider margin than expected and winning the popular vote by 2+% (both of these occurred).
Before the election, Republicans argued to no end that his statistical models were wrong and that Romney would win the election with no problem. As is the case with politics as I've found out, people get really f-ing angry when what they are reading or seeing doesn't correspond with a favorable view/rating of the person they are supporting (at least this holds up in general). If you take a look at the comments Silver got from the right, you'd think Silver just made up the stats.
Sports folks among my friend base might recognize Silver's name from his work as a sabermetrics guy and occasional author on various sports websites. In Silver's first analysis of the electoral college in 2008, he projected 49 out of 50 states correctly (he projected Indiana for McCain). He also predicted all 35 Senate races correctly that year.
I'm not sure how many swing states there were in 2008, but all things considered, missing one state in two elections shows me that this guy has a damn good statistical model going here. Stay tuned for his blog in 2016 to see what we should expect.
More Fun Political Stats
Here are a few fun political facts and figures that I found as I kept a really close eye on the Google Election Center, by far the most detailed political map that I came across as I looked for updated statistics on the election:
A year where I started to feel that standing on the sidelines as it relates to the political process was no longer an option.
Sure, it started with the trendy SOPA stuff--and from everything I've learned about politics in the past year, Congress will attempt to pass through similar legislation that could continue to threaten freedom of speech. But as I learned, sometimes it takes something relevant to an individual to say, "Wait a minute, maybe I should start educating myself on this stuff."
There are also plenty of other things I learned over the course of this year (and election season) that has me both optimistic about the future of our country and some things that have me disgusted with the process. I get that people are passionate about their politics. But please - (a) keep it civil, (b) keep it factual, and (c) keep it positive.
In too many cases, folks on both sides of the major parties could recite more negative stuff about the other guy than positive about their own. That's not a good sign for your guy if you're doing that.
Anywho, onward to the talking points:
The True 1%
While everyone was clamoring to see whether Obama would be able to survive this election season against his Republican opponent, history was made of a different kind for the bronze medalist in the presidential race.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received over a million votes (a record for Libertarians) and about 1% of the vote (just short of the party record). Considering the two big dogs spent almost 1000 times more combined than Johnson's campaign (2 billion to 3 million -> source) and got about 1000 times more coverage than former New Mexico governor, it is quite the accomplishment.
I don't know the exact number of votes he got from me and people I know, but it was at least a half dozen. Considering my circle of people isn't all that big, it's much larger than the national percentage. If Gary gives it another run in 2016, I will likely vote for him again, barring some other solid candidate would enter the race.
And no, once again, I wouldn't be wasting my vote.
Stat in the Hat
If you voted for Romney and didn't see this coming, you haven't been studying the stats.
And no, I don't mean the partisan polls on these slanted news networks. I mean Nate Silver's 538 blog, which was running on the NY Times website throughout the election.
If you haven't heard of him, Nate became a polarizing figure over the election cycle with his projections of the election through personalized statistical models, all of which showed Obama taking the electoral college by a much wider margin than expected and winning the popular vote by 2+% (both of these occurred).
Before the election, Republicans argued to no end that his statistical models were wrong and that Romney would win the election with no problem. As is the case with politics as I've found out, people get really f-ing angry when what they are reading or seeing doesn't correspond with a favorable view/rating of the person they are supporting (at least this holds up in general). If you take a look at the comments Silver got from the right, you'd think Silver just made up the stats.
Sports folks among my friend base might recognize Silver's name from his work as a sabermetrics guy and occasional author on various sports websites. In Silver's first analysis of the electoral college in 2008, he projected 49 out of 50 states correctly (he projected Indiana for McCain). He also predicted all 35 Senate races correctly that year.
I'm not sure how many swing states there were in 2008, but all things considered, missing one state in two elections shows me that this guy has a damn good statistical model going here. Stay tuned for his blog in 2016 to see what we should expect.
More Fun Political Stats
Here are a few fun political facts and figures that I found as I kept a really close eye on the Google Election Center, by far the most detailed political map that I came across as I looked for updated statistics on the election:
- Roseanne Barr finished fifth overall in the popular vote. Yes, the sitcom star and everyone's favorite husky 1990s TV mom finished behind Obama, Romney, Johnson and Jill Stein (Green Party) in the popular vote. Barr's vote total was just a shade under 50,000, which was roughly eight times less than Stein's total. It's not like she came close to winning, but she finished fifth. Her name was on the ballot in Florida, Colorado & California. Welcome to Uhmerica.
- "None of these candidates" is a voting option in Nevada. If you didn't want to vote for any of the candidates listed on the Nevada ballot, you can place a vote for nobody. Yes, there's an option on their ballots to vote for "None of these candidates". Interestingly enough, this "candidate" finished fourth behind Obama, Romney and Johnson. Sorry Virgil Goode - the Constitution Party candidate literally got beat by no one (None of these candidates got almost double the votes as Goode did in the state).
- Nothing screams "I'm Fiscally Responsible" like spending billions on a presidential election. As of 10-26-12, Barack & Mitt spent over $2 billion combined on their campaigns combined (source). I'm guessing that total rose over the final couple weeks of the election. In fact, if you break it down by state, Obama spent the most in Illinois (over $39M), which is considered his adopted home state. Likewise, Romney spent the most in his state of Massachusetts ($115M). In both states, the winner was fairly well known before the election began (Obama). Why spend that much in your home states? The site doesn't break down costs, so it's hard to say what this was spent (or wasted) on. Still, it seems ridiculous that each guy would spend so much in a state whose winner was widely known before the election even began.
And one more thing...
Let's not make a mention of the 2016 election for a while. We don't need to encourage these bozos to make this a non-stop thing. My Gary mention is not included in on this - mainly because it's my blog and I'll cry if I want to.
That's all I got. I hope you're as happy as I am for this season to be over. Now, time to watch the Colts/Jaguars game.
On second thought, maybe another election cycle isn't so bad to watch.
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