An Early Look at MLB & Teams Who I Have My Eye On

Here's a look at each team's odds to win their respective divisions, according to 5dimes.com. The teams I have bolded below are the teams I find to have the best value, not necessarily who I think will win the division.

Tampa - Ever since their surprise World Series appearance years ago, the Rays have been in the thick of the AL East race. Even when they trade away pieces that people think will end the Rays' run, Tampa keeps rolling. With all the years of sucktitude that they had, the Rays were able to stockpile a wealth of young talent, which allows them to make these moves. This is the toughest division in the majors to predict, especially now with all the talent that Toronto acquired, but out of all the teams, I think the Rays have the best value.

Kansas City - The Royals made some moves. Wait...the Royals...made....moves? A solid starting rotation that can eat innings (Ervin Santana, James Shields & Wade Davis join Jeremy Guthrie & Luke Hochevar). They have some guys who can rake (Butler's one of the most under-rated guys in the majors). It'll take a strong effort for any of these AL Central teams to take the division away from the Tigers, but if there is going to be a team who does it this year, I believe it'll be the Royals (not the White Sox).

Oakland - If you watched the way they ended the year last year, you'd be hard-pressed to tell me that they should be a 6/1 shot to win the division. This team improved every month of the year, with a miraculous comeback to take the division from the Texas Rangers on the last day of the season. Yoesnis Cespedes is a stud and should get better this year. And now with them having the Astros to whip around, there should be a good shot of Oakland getting in the 85-90 win range again.

St. Louis - Every year, the Cardinals are in the talk for the playoffs. Outside of the Yankees, the Cardinals are the team you associate with making the playoffs on a consistent basis and having a reasonable shot to win the World Series every year. I don't even need to know what offseason moves they made, because simply put, they always make the right moves. Letting Pujols go was the smart move. (an aside: Do you see how bad A-Rod looks at the end of his huge deal with the Yankees? That could very well be Phat Albert in about five years.) St. Louis isn't a huge underdog in this division, but they're doggish enough to have value. Wainwright is scheduled to start the year - Carpenter is scheduled to miss the entire year. That didn't seem to matter a couple years back when it was the reverse that happened as they won the World Series in dramatic fashion.

Philly - Last year's prohibitive favorite to dominate the NL East thanks to a stalwart pitching staff, the Phillies ended up underachieving to a level that only the Marlins and maybe the Red Sox could relate to. A pitching staff with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee can go far and do wonderful things together if they can stay healthy. With their increased age (Halladay will be turning 36 in May while Lee turns 35 in August), you can only hope they can pitch their elite-level 200+ innings. With Hamels in the mix, this will continue to be a devastating rotation. If they can get some production from some of their younger hitters (like Domonic Brown) and some of these older guys can find the fountain of youth or undetectable PEDs (I'm looking at you Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins & Chase Utley - a trio of guys who feel like have been with the team for 20 years together), they can easily contend again for the NL East crown.

Arizona - The Diamondbacks are a year removed from winning the division. While the Giants were busy winning their second World Series in three years and the Dodgers were spending money like Steinbrenners, the Diamondbacks made some rather curious moves, trading for Heath Bell (coming off a disastrous year) and trading Justin Upton in separate deals. However, like many of the other teams on this list, I like them for their pitching. Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill & Wade Miley are all capable of 200+ quality innings. Solid pitching can keep a team in contention till the very end, and I think Arizona is very capable of winning this division.


I'll be writing a blog in the next couple weeks with official predictions. I figured I'd get out of my lack-of-writing blues that seem to hit after the Super Bowl every year.

Happy Spring Training, y'all!

MLB   American League East Mon 4/1  1:05PM
New York Yankees	+175
Toronto Blue Jays	+185
Tampa Bay Rays	+340
Boston Red Sox	+600
Baltimore Orioles	+750

MLB   American League Central Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Detroit Tigers	-290
Chicago White Sox	+645
Kansas City Royals	+700
Cleveland Indians	+1000
Minnesota Twins	+2200

MLB   American League West Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Los Angeles Angels	-150
Texas Rangers	+190
Oakland Athletics	+600
Seattle Mariners	+1450
Houston Astros	+6000

MLB   National League East Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Washington Nationals	+110
Atlanta Braves	+225
Philadelphia Phillies	+250
New York Mets	+1700
Miami Marlins	+3300

MLB   National League Central Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Cincinnati Reds	-130
St. Louis Cardinals	+210
Milwaukee Brewers	+580
Pittsburgh Pirates	+1050
Chicago Cubs	+1800

MLB   National League West Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Los Angeles Dodgers	-110
San Francisco Giants	+230
Arizona Diamondbacks	+400
San Diego Padres	+1900
Colorado Rockies	+2500

Fit Happens Chapter 3: The No Booze Cruise (Part 1)

As I did three years ago, I have devoted the month of February to no alcohol drinks whatsoever (editors note: we shall never speak of the events of February 3rd, which was reserved for the consumption of a plethora and variety of craft brews imbibed during the 49ers loss in the Super Bowl).

This no-alcohol month was done in two parts: (1) to give myself a challenge that I knew would be tough, especially with how many alcohol-based situations I am in on a weekly basis and (2) to help in the process of losing weight for the Fit Happens challenge.

I knew the chances of repeating as the Biggest Loser based on percentage for the month of February would be difficult, so I figured some kind of dietary change had to occur for this to happen (in addition to working out harder and more frequently).

I have kept track of all of the potential drinking opportunities and how difficult it was for me to abstain from drinking. I'm actually surprised at how often I'm in drinking situations, which surprises me that it surprises me.

Without further ado (listed by the date where temptation presented itself)

1st - As is the case every Friday, bowling always presents its share of temptation of delicious beer, usually 312. It is also harder to not drink when the team when you are bowling is a bunch of booze hounds - which was the case today. Seeing as though I bowled below average this particular week (peaking at a 191 in game 2) as our team got swept, a pint couldn't have hurt. Temptation Level: Medium

2nd - This day contained visits to two separate bars - Olivers and Zante's. Oliver's was with the family (not with my usual Wednesday night hooligans, so no difficulty there. Zante's was a different story.

Here's a story on Yelp a few years ago from someone who went there:

• Elite '13
• 304friends
• 160reviews

• Dana G.

Frankfort, IL

 1/6/2011

If there was a hell mouth for douche bags this is definitely one of them.

Do not come here on a weekend if you like your sanity. This place THINKS they are a Chicago club and so do the people that frequent it. They have a freakin' bathroom attendant... seriously thanks but I can wipe my own damn hands and I'm not paying you a dollar for a stick of gum. The door guys/ bouncers are rude (probably from the hair gel leaking through their skulls.

AVOID AVOID AVOID

This summary sums up my thoughts on the place. The best part of the place this particular night was that there was one table of awesome people and an awesome birthday girl. Otherwise, this review is how I feel about the bar. So needless to say, the urge to drink this night was particularly high. I did buy drinks...but they weren't for me. Ada (the birthday girl in question) and Jen enjoyed a lemon drop shot as part of my birthday drink gift. My 3-4 glasses of water were my only beverages consumed. Temptation Level: High; Total Bar Visits: 2; (Month-to-Date: 2)

3rd - (We're forgetting about this day. Damn Ravens)

6th - Wednesday night bowling doesn't usually have the same alcohol temptation that Friday does, but there are a few teams we enjoy bowling against whose enjoyment of a couple drinks might get our team to do the same. However, when the team you are facing is named "BYE" and has no people on the team, the possibility of being tempted by them is nil. After bowling is usually a trip to Olivers, but sticking with the theme of a BYE week, my usual duo of knuckleheads were both MIA - no appearance to Olivers necessary. Temptation Level: Low

8th - Another bowling night, but with a team that doesn't interact with us in a way that others do (where there may be a shot here and there), there was no temptation to drink, although sadly, I have to say we all did take shots from a shot glass. They contained water. I bowled well that night (610 series, topping out at a 241 in the first game), so that's all I really need from a bowling night I realized. Temptation Level: Low

9th - I went to visit my friend who lives in Bloomington. If you know anything about us, you'd know that pretty much every time we've hung out (dating back to the start of our friendship in college times), there has been a couple of beers consumed. We did go to a bar, but we just grabbed lunch and then hung out at his place before heading back home to the South Loop in the early evening.

After this was one of the most alcohol-filled situations I've been in: Geno & Jen's engagement party. Over two dozen people were at the party - I believe all of them except one thinning white boy with a faux hawk were drinking something that night. With celebration drinks and clinking glasses surrounding me, I stayed strong with my 36 ounce water jug (between Bloomington and this party, I refilled the jug about 8 or 9 times - over 300 oz's of H2O in my body throughout the day). Talking about brewing beer with Ed didn't help matters. We also went to a bar (The Shamrock) after for a couple of drinks. But, as is the theme with this story, I stayed strong. Temptation Level: High; Total Bar Visits: 2 (Month-to-Date: 4)

10th - Another day with G & J, another day of bowling, but surprisingly, not as much temptation. This bowling league on Sundays is more of a social league than a serious one, but on this particular day, no one on the team was drinking. I'm a substitute for the team, bowling when needed. Afterwards, we went to Diversey's to grab dinner and catch some of the Blackhawks game. Again, shocked to see no one was drinking. Jen and I left before the game ended. However, at the bar, I set up my next drinking temptation event, which coincidentally enough, involved going to a Blackhawks game. Temptation Level: Low; Total Bar Visits: 1 (Month-to-Date: 5)

Pierre & Geno

12th - I was invited to go to a Blackhawks game with Geno, for the low price of buying him a couple rounds of drinks. At this point, he knew that I was not drinking this month - and as such, he respected my stance of not drinking this month. We took a free shuttle from The Crossroads to the United Center. After not drinking there amid a 3-2 Blackhawks defeat, I went back to the bar with Geno (but not before running into New Orleans Saints running back Pierre Thomas, who I took a picture of with Geno). The urge to drink was a little higher than the previous temptation, but certainly not as bad as it's been this month. Temptation Level: Medium; Total Bar Visits: 1 (Month-to-Date: 6)

13th - I headed to Atlanta for a few days, where I was to meet with my co-workers, including my new boss (who I had never had the chance to meet before). I was in my hotel room for several hours before I got a call from him to meet him at the hotel bar. As I did many times so far this month, I explained my no-drink situation, so my beverage of choice was water throughout the 48 hours together. I also managed to avoid drinking at a restaurant we went to when Jake got into town. I did take a shot of something - strangely, it was an oyster/calamari shot. I assured the new boss that I would be enjoying adult beverages with them on our company trip next month in Hawaii. Temptation Level: High; Total Bar Visits (including the hotel bar): 2 (Month-to-Date: 8)

14th - The second night featured dinner with a client in a downtown restaurant and visiting a pub where the boss wanted to see an old friend of his that he hadn't seen in a couple years. The client dinner was fantastic - no drinks, no worries. Same with the visit to the bar. We didn't stay there long, as every one of us was tired and wanted to get some shut eye. Temptation Level: Low; Total Bar Visits (including restaurant): 2 (Month-to-Date: 10)

15th - I got back into Chicago around 7:30 pm, just in time to get back to the suburbs for bowling. Like the bowling situation on the 1st, we faced a team full of guys who are never shy about their consumption of buckets full of piss water known as Coors Light. Avoiding drinking was not a problem though. Temptation was lower than normal, considering the team we are bowling against. One thing I did notice - as I go with beer drinking at bowling, so goes my team. Not once this month has my team had a beer to drink while bowling. Temptation Level: Low

More to come on this as the month finishes. I will also update everyone on my weight loss and whether or not I am able to defend my Biggest Loser crown from January. Peace!

Big Boys Don't Cry; They Drink: A Reflection of a Sad Niner Fan's Super Bowl Experience

It took me a week to finally reflect on the Super Bowl. Here goes nothing.

That normal sadness that follows a Super Bowl usually has to do with the season being over. The normal depression after the game usually has to do with me incorrectly assessing the wagers I made on the game (New England, I'm looking at you in your last two appearances).

This year, I had no such thoughts. No lamenting that the last game of the season had just been played. And no sadness about wagers lost. I only had one wager that was directly tied to the game with a friend, but I didn't care if my San Francisco -3.5 bet lost. Winning by 1-3 points would have been ok with me too.

Instead, the Niners left me with a hole in my heart that I tried to preemptively fill with close to a dozen craft beers. I missed the halftime show as I stood outside in the cold drinking a Gumball Head. My appearance in the frigid air would have a repeat performance, right after Jacoby Jones opened the second half with a kickoff return for a touchdown. I went outside again, trying to keep myself composed as my favorite team was in the process of getting demolished.

Then, the infamous power outage, which served to drag on the pain and provide false hope at the same time. When the outage was fixed, the Niners stormed back but couldn't finish the deal. Yes, there was a hold on the Niners' last offensive play, but that wasn't what caused the game to be lost.

After all, a 28-6 deficit entering your first offensive play of the second half isn't exactly something you can pin on a missed holding call. Chris Culliver became a trending name earlier in the Super Bowl week for his comments denouncing the idea of having and playing with a gay teammate. On Super Bowl Sunday, Culliver trended for a different reason - #HorribleCoverage. He was burned on Flacco's TD to Boldin to open the game and on his last TD to Jacoby Jones. Not to mention a costly pass interference that extended a Baltimore drive right after the Niners closed the big gap down to 31-29.

There's many other reasons to blame for the loss: the declining play of the defense (which has quietly been a problem since Kaepernick has taken over), Harbaugh not calling a single running play inside the 10 on that last drive, and so forth.

All the while, when the Niners were coming back, I was acting like a drunken fool and taunting everyone in the basement with random actions that I can't quite even comprehend why I was doing them. It was all the more reason to justify my month of sobriety which started with the Monday after the Super Bowl and continues till at least the beginning of March.

Once I woke up with a little hangover on Black Monday, I was mostly over the loss. The thoughts of a meaningful NFL game not appearing for another seven months were soon the main thoughts.

And they remain my thoughts for now. College basketball is starting to get back onto my sports radar, particularly with March Madness a month away.

Stay tuned for a blog in the near future, where I will simulate the 2013 NFL Draft, but with a little twist.

Prop-aring for the Super Bowl & The Madness of Super Bowl Betting

Here are a few questions to ponder:

1. How long will Alicia Keys take to finish the national anthem?
2. Will she add or forget any words when she is singing it?
3. Will Jay-Z appear on stage with Beyonce at some point during her halftime performance?
4. Will Beyonce's hair be curled, waved or crimped?

And while you're pondering them, you can also gamble on them. Yes - online sportsbooks offer gamblers a chance to win (or likely lose) a ton of money on the craziest stuff you can think of.

Now of course, there's close to a thousand props for people who use 5dimes.com to bet on (921 to be exact), ranging from the non-football bets above to bets such as a team's exact margin of victory and a lot in between.

Some of the larger odds:

• If you think there will be a score within the first 30 seconds of the game, you can throw a few dollars on that at 50/1 odds.
• If you think both QB's first passes will be interceptions, you can bet that at 400/1 odds (i.e. $10 nets you $4,000)
• If you think the score will be tied at the half and at the end of the fourth quarter, you get those odds at 55/1.
• If you believe the first score (like in last year's Super Bowl) will be a safety, you're getting 100/1 odds.
• Betting on San Fran to win by exactly 41 points, you get 550/1 odds. Betting Baltimore to win by that same margin is a 2000/1 proposition. (Most exact margins of victory pay the most, but these are the highest).

Now, some of the ones I am considering:

1. Total missed FGs: Over 1 +275: Including the postseason, Justin Tucker missed only 3 of 35 field goals in his rookie year. However, the veteran on the other sideline has been awful. David Akers has missed 14 of 44 field goal attempts, including a miss in 10 of 18 games. He had 4 multi-miss FG games. I think this offers value, as you can get at least a push if there's only one miss.
2. LaMichael James: Over 5.5 carries/25.5 rushing yards: I've lumped these two together. I believe that the Niners' best chance to win will be on the ground. James is fresh, and with little game tape of the Oregon speedster, I believe Harbaugh (the Jim version) will have him featured more. With the Ravens having allowed 125+ rushing yards in 10 of 19 games, I believe there will be plenty of opportunities for Gore and James to get theirs.
3. Score in first 4 minutes (+270): San Fran has had a tendency in both postseason games to start slow, with an early pick-6 by Green Bay and a quick first drive by Atlanta in the NFC title game to open up the scoring. Don't be surprised (if Balt gets ball first) for Flacco to go deep to Torrey Smith to start the game.
4. Michael Crabtree MVP (+1800): I made the case for Crabtree in a previous blog. If San Fran wins thanks to Kaepernick, there's a decent chance he's been targeting Crabtree. As long as Crabtree grabs the majority of Kaep's yards & TDs, I think he has good value at 18/1, as long as Kaepernick doesn't run for 50+ yards as well.

101 Bets

In case you missed last year's feature, I interviewed a couple of friends on their annual tradition of betting on 101 separate props. This year was no exception to their betting adventures. The Man of Little Stature won the coin toss and made his first pick "The Football Travels Over 1499.5 yards", which has become his new favorite bet over "the pylon gets knocked down".

Here's a list of their bets for this year. This...is how professionals do it:

	LM	TS
1. Heads/tails:	Tails
2. Calling team picks:		Tails
3. Calling team wins/loses coin toss:	Loses
4. Coin toss winner chooses/defers:		Chooses
5. Football travels ov/un 1499.5 yards (Net offensive yards + return yards + punt yards + penalty yards + successful FG yards):	Over
6. NFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:		Run
7. AFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:	Pass
8. First score, TD/FG:		FG
9. First team to score:		SF
10. First turn-over, fumble/interception:	Int
11. Which team commits the first turnover:		Balt
12. Which team commits more turnovers:	Balt
13. First team to take a timeout:		SF
14. First team to challenge play:		SF
15. Total number of red flag reviews in game, over/under 1.5:		Under
16. First quarter points, over/under 9.5:	Over
17. Total points second quarter, over/under 14:		Under
18. Total points third quarter, over/under 10:	Over
19. Total points forth quarter, over/under 13.5:		Over
20. Total points for game, over/under 47.5:		Under
21. All timeouts used in the first half:	No
22. All timeouts used in second half:		No
23. First penalty committed by which team:	Balt
24. Length of first penalty, over/under 9.5 yards:		Under
25. Most penalties, NFC/AFC:		Balt
26. Most penalty yards, NFC/AFC:	Balt
27. More QB rushing yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
28. Most team passing yards:		Balt
29. Most team rushing yards:		SF
30. Most team passing TDs:		Balt
31. Most team rushing TDs:		SF
32. AFC/NFC starting RB, more rushing yards:	SF
33. More starting RB TDs, AFC/NFC:	SF
34. More FG/TD in game:	TD
35. Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game:	Yes
36. Will there be a score in the last 2:00 of the half:	No
37. Will there be a score in the last 3:30 of the game:		Yes
38. Will there be a safety in the game:		No
39. Will there be an OT:	No
40. Will there be a successful 2 point conversion:		No
41. Last team to score:	SF
42. Last team to score win/lose:		Win
43. Anyone ejected from game:		No
44. From kick off to end of final play, over/under 3h 45m 00s:	Under
45. First/second half, most points scored:		2H
46. Which team will record more sacks:		SF
47. Will there be 3 unanswered scores:	No
48. Most tackles by team leader, AFC/NFC:		SF
49. Longest play of the game from scrimmage, over/under 35.5 yards:	Over
50. Which team will score the longest TD:	SF
51. Will there be a defensive TD:		No
52. Will there be a special teams TD:		No
53. Which team will kick the longest FG:		Balt
54. Will there be a successful onsides kick:	No
55.Will game be tied after 0-0:		Yes
56. Longest scoring drive of the game, over/under 6m 30s (game clock):	Over
57. Winner of Super Bowl:	SF
58. Penalties resulting in first down, ov/un 1.5:		Over
59. Highest passer rating starting QB AFC/NFC:		Balt
60. AFC QB throw TD/Int first:		TD
61. NFC QB throw TD/Int first:		TD
62. Will starting NFC RB fumble:	No
63. Will starting AFC RB fumble:		No
64. Which team will recover more fumbles (not only turnovers):	SF
65. Which team will intercept more balls:	SF
66. NFC QB first pass complete?	Yes
67. AFC QB first pass complete?	Yes
68. More special teams yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
69. More offensive yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
70. After red flag review, more reversals/call stands:		Stands
71. Longest pass completion of game, NFC/AFC:	SF
72. Longest rush of game, NFC/AFC:		SF
73. Longest kick off return, NFC/AFC:	SF
74. Longest punt return, NFC/AFC:		Balt
75. Which team punts from deepest spot:	Balt
76. Which team kicks for more points:		Balt
77. Longer punt average, NFC/AFC:		Balt
78. Number of drives that start inside own 15 yard line, ov/un 1.5:	Under
79. Which is greater, AFC/NFC RB receiving yards:	Balt
80. 4th down conversions, over/under 1.5:	Under
81. Longest FG, over/under 44.5 yards:		Over
82. Will there be a FG attempt over 50 yards:		No
83. Will there be a missed FG:		No
84. Last score, FG/TD:	TD
85. Will there be a red zone turnover:	No
86. Who places more punts inside the 20:	SF
87. Will a Super Bowl pylon be seen knocked over during the game:	Yes
88. Will there be a roughing the passer penalty:	No
89. Will there be a blocked FG:	No
90. Will there be a blocked punt:		No
91. Will a non-QB attempt a pass:		No
92. Will a timeout be called to ice a kicker:	No
93. More receptions by team leader, AFC/NFC:		Balt
94. More receiving yards by team leader, AFC/NFC:	SF
95. Longest scoring drive, over/under 75 yards:		Under
96. Shortest scoring drive, over/under 35 yards:	Under
97. Is a double digit lead ever established:		No
98. Who spends more clock time in the lead:	SF
99. Who has more time of possession:		SF
100. More points, kickers vs. NFC QBs:		SF
101. More points, kickers vs. AFC QBs:	Kickers

Fit Happens Chapter 2: A Healthy Competition

Month 1 of 2013 brought some true change to this country. No, this isn't the political type of change or the even more devalued change in our pockets after buying a candy bar. This was something bigger. Or should I say, a bunch of someone's bigger.

Weighing in at a combined 1015.1 pounds, the quartet in the 2013 Fit Happens Challenge had a lot of extra baggage to remove to start the new year. Better choices had to start being made: cutting out the cheeseburgers for something more healthy, curbing/eliminating the amount of fast food eaten, the switch from Diet Cokes to water. These are just some of the ways the four of us approached the weight loss challenge.

How It Started...

I must say that I am starting to feel the energy I had just before I stopped working out in July 2010, when the combination of getting a job where I worked from home and going to night class three times a week in the middle of the week caused me to curb my visits to the gym.

At my peak between 2008 and 2010, I would be going to the gym 5 times a week regularly, going from 220 pounds at the time of my gym membership start to about 175 at its lowest over the 2 years at the gym. When my work/school schedule changed, so did my gym habits. 5 times a week turned into twice a week. Twice a week turned into twice a month. Pretty soon, I just gave up going to the gym, and my body responded appropriately.

At the end of 2012, I was tagged on an email with a couple of friends and their friend, all of whom had discussed starting up a weight loss contest that would present motivation for the four of us to get trimmer heading into 2013. In addition to prizes given for monthly winners and the overall winner, there are also parameters in place where everyone in the contest will have to stay motivated, no matter the difference in % of weight lost.

While we all seem to be in the clear of the most dangerous of those motivating factors (anyone who loses less than 2% of their original body weight will have to wear a dress in public), there is also the threshold of getting at least 7.5% weight lost or risking the loss of your gamer tag for a year (or changing of a FB profile picture for a month).

Luckily for us, we all started out the month strong...

User	lbs	%
Dave	-11.8 lbs	-4.09%
Hippo	-11.4 lbs	-4.62%
LionEsquire	-13.2 lbs	-5.41%
B-Bo Knows Weight Loss	-13.0 lbs	-5.52%

One Month In...

You might have an idea what my name in the contest is. Luckily I lived up to my name, reaching the end of the month in first place with 5.52% of my weight lost, edging out my nearest competition by 0.11%.

The 13 pounds lost in a month has to be a record for me. Which is surprising, because I don't think my eating habits have dramatically improved during this month.

Well, I should say what I choose to eat hasn't changed. I've definitely been eating/snacking less than before. But for the most part, my diet hasn't changed. I have cut back dramatically on alcohol and my Diet Cokes, opting for some agua instead. I'd say the conversion to a near-water beverage diet has helped a lot, although I still had a couple of weekend nights where I imbibed on a few too many.

The Next Month

Here are a few things I am expecting from Month 2 of the contest

1. The weight loss will be tougher. From my experiences working out 5 years ago, I know that the dramatic weight loss will likely tail off in month 2. This is why I've set a reasonable goal of 6-8 pounds loss for February. It won't be for lack of trying - I'm hoping to prove myself wrong and get past that mark, but not counting on it.
2. I expect to continue to get more energy the more I work out. I've been going to the gym about 3-4 times a week this year so far. The workouts, focused moreso on cardio activities, have increased in length and intensity since the beginning of the year. The first week or so was spent on the treadmill, walking at about a 3.5/4 mph pace. In the past two weeks, I've been starting to jog on the treadmill, around a 5/5.5 mph pace. The workouts aren't always as long, but I end up losing way more calories with the jogs.  I am looking to get back to running around a 6mph pace like I was able to at the same point of my weight loss in 2008.
3. My diet will improve. It may not improve dramatically, but cutting out soda and alcohol (save for the Super Bowl) for the entire month of February will have to help somewhat. In fact, I meant to ask if anyone wanted to join me on this No Booze Till March campaign. And no, my non-drinking friends don't need to be smartasses and agree to go on this campaign with me - I'm looking for my alcohol-soaked friends to hop on the Sober Train, which I think is more reliable than the CTA/Metra.
4. I don't expect to win the weight loss title again. But that doesn't mean I won't aim for a repeat. I figure if I win it a second month in a row, I must be doing something right and will be in much better shape when the month of February comes to a close.

When this contest first started, I must say I was slightly motivated by winning it. But then I realized that this is more than just a contest to win by losing weight. This is about making better decisions, whether it be to lay off fatty snacks and eating fruit instead or going downstairs to the gym to workout instead of sitting on the couch watching 1990s sitcoms and crappy college basketball games throughout the early evening.

I must say that win or lose, this contest is exactly what I needed to start making some better decisions. Thank you to Chris, Nick and Dave for the invite in what promises to be a healthy competition.

Combined Weight to Start January: 1015.1 pounds
Combined Weight to End January: 965.7 pounds
Weight loss total - 49.4 pounds (4.9% lost)

The History of the Super Bowl MVP: Facts & Thoughts for This Year

A couple days away from Super Bowl XLVII (47 for us non-Romans). Anyone who knows me knows that I am super-psyched about this game being a 49ers fan.

And like almost every Super Bowl in the past 6-7 years, I'm a gambling man. There's so many freaking things you can bet on (more on this in a blog coming up later this week before the game). One of the things you can bet on is who will win the Super Bowl MVP.

This award favors the quarterback, as 25 of 47 winners (there was one Super Bowl w/ a co-MVP) lined up behind center to win the award. The past three Super Bowl winners had a QB win the award.

So naturally, the two favorites to win the award are both QBs (Colin Kaepernick is +140 and Joe Flacco is +250). This means for every 10 dollars you bet on Kaepernick, you'd profit $14, with a similar sized wager on Flacco netting you 25 bucks.

These are the safest bets to make, but who wants to be safe, especially when it comes to gambling? I delved into the history of the Super Bowl MVP and what the average QB who won the award did to win it. I also wanted to see what it took for a non-QB to win the award. The defensive winners (8 in total) were hard to find definitive stats for, so I wanted to focus more on the running backs and wide receivers who stole the honors from the quarterbacks.

So here goes nothing:

For the QB MVP winners:

• The average stats for the 25 winning MVP QBs: 20-for-30, 269 yards, 2.3 TDs, 0.5 int.
• Out of the first 9 QBs to win the MVP, none of them completed more than 17 passes or threw more than 30 times. In this time period, the average QB went 14-for-23, 218 yards, 1.7 TD, 0.6 int
• Since then (since the 1985 Super Bowl - XIX), the 16 QBs have averaged 23-for-35, 298 yards, 2.7 TDs, 0.4 int
• Yardage totals for MVP winners range from Roger Staubach's 119 in Super Bowl VI to Kurt Warner's 414 in Super Bowl XXXIV. The lowest total since Staubach's was Tom Brady's first go-around as MVP, only netting 145 passing yards in the Patriots' upset of the St. Louis Rams.

For the QB non-MVP winners:

• The average stats for the 22 non-winning MVP QBs: 14-for-24, 184 yards, 1 TD, 0.6 int.
• From Super Bowl I-XIX in which the QB didn't win MVP, the average stats for these QBs: 12-for-19, 141 yards, 1.1 TDs, 0.7 int
• Since Super Bowl XX, the non-winning QBs averaged 17-28, 216 yards, 1 TD, 0.5 int
• In the back-to-back Super Bowls that Miami won in the 1970s, Bob Greise went 14-for-18 with 161 yards and a TD and an interception...in both games combined! Could you imagine a QB throwing this little nowadays and winning a Super Bowl in just one game, yet alone two? 

So what does it take for a non-QB to win the MVP? We'll focus on the offensive players:

Running Backs (7 winners)

• The seven running back winners have averaged 29 carries, 150 yards and 2 TDs. This stat means that basically the workhorse running back is the only type who can win the award.
• The lowest number of carries for a MVP RB is 20 carries (Marcus Allen), with John Riggins' 38 carries leading the way for MVP running backs.
• There has not been a running back MVP since 1998, when Terrell Davis totaled 157 yards in Super Bowl XXXII.

Wide Receivers (6 winners)

• The average MVP wide-out has averaged about 7 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown to snag the award. Overall, the six winners were responsible for 799 of their QB's 1361 yards (59%) and 3 of their 8 TDs (Note: Hines Ward did not catch his 43-yard TD from Big Ben - see below)
• It should be noted that three of these six winners have come in the last 8 years (Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes)
• These three recent winners averaged 113 yards/game (not counting Ward's catch from the WR), while their QBs averaged 205 yards.
• In Super Bowl XL, Hines Ward had as many yards receiving as Roethlisberger had passing (123 yards). This occurred thanks to a trick play from the arm of Antwaan Randle-El to Ward for a 43 yard touchdown - this means Roethlisberger only netted 43 yards total from receivers not named Hines Ward.

Defensive Players (8 winners)

• As mentioned above, records aren't that great when it comes to what defensive players did to earn their MVPs.
• For the three secondary players to win the award, all three had exactly two interceptions each. The latest of which was 10 years ago when Dexter Jackson snatched two Rich Gannon passes.
• There have also been three linemen/tackles to win it. Two of these guys shared the award (Harvey Martin & Randy White in Super Bowl XII for the winning Dallas Cowboys). The other was Richard Dent, who had two sacks and two forced fumbles in the Bears' rout of the Patriots in Super Bowl XX.
• Only two linebackers have won the award: Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V & the one-and-only Ray Lewis in Super Bowl XXXV.

Other (1 winner)

• There was also the lone special teams guy to win the award. Desmond Howard earned the award in Super Bowl XXXI with some great returns (244 all-purpose yards, including a 99-yard kickoff return).

This begs the question...

What players have value if betting the Super Bowl MVP? Based on the recent data, the wide receiver position has the best value for MVP. Running backs need an amazing game, including a lot of carries, to take away the MVP from QBs. Gore has a better shot to get 20+ carries than Rice, but I'm eliminating both since no RB has won this in 15 years.

For this bet, you would want to target a guy who has a chance to get around 60% of his QB's total yards.

This leaves three realistic long-shots to win the Super Bowl MVP:

Torrey Smith 17/1

Michael Crabtree 18/1

Anquan Boldin 20/1

If you think the Ravens will win, I would personally look to take Smith. He has the best big-play potential (17 yards/catch & 8 TDs vs. Boldin's 14 yards/catch & 4 TDs this year).

However, with me taking the Niners in this game, I am going to make Michael Crabtree my Super Bowl MVP bet.

In Kaepernick's 9 starts including the playoffs, 37% of his yards (771 of 2104) and 7 of his 13 TD passes have gone to Crabtree. This includes five games where Crabtree accumulated 45% or more of Kaepernick's yards.

Defending the Award

If you think this will be a defensive battle, you may want to considering looking for long-shot defensive players to win the award. Ray Lewis is priced out of this (only 8/1 odds, terrible for a position that's only won the award twice in 46 Super Bowls). I'd suggest looking at the following players if you sense a struggle:

1. Ed Reed 35/1 (If he picks a couple passes, this is possible. With his ball-hawking skills, he could also return one for a TD)
2. Patrick Willis 45/1 (His odds were at 90/1 earlier this week). If this is a low-scoring game, Willis will likely have his fingerprints on the game.
3. Aldon Smith 70/1 (He hasn't had a sack since Week 14. All of his 19.5 sacks came in the 13 games before then, including 5 games with multiple sacks. If the score stays low and he can get a couple sacks, including a turnover, Smith could win it)
4. Terrell Suggs 75/1 (He hasn't been the dominant player he was last year when he took the defensive player of the year honors, but Suggs is still worth a look. His best game this season came against Denver in the Divisional Round, notching 10 tackles/2 sacks, so perhaps he has a little juice in the tank for a great game against the Niners.

Squares Root (For Teams Not Their Own)

Root root root for the home team

If they don't win, just root for someone else...

-Author Unknown

Ok, maybe that author is me. Could be, I don't know.

Anywho, the topic that's on my mind a week before the Super Bowl isn't so much about the game as it is about the people who watch the game.

You. Me. Your Mom (yeah, she watches it). Even your lady friends who can only name one player on each team, and that's because she's in love with one of them (Kaepernick) and thinks the other guy got away with murder over a decade ago (Ray Lewis - btw, the case against him was so flawed, but people continue to speak of this "murder" as truth).

When these people go to parties, you'll be hard-pressed to find someone staying completely neutral. Which is strange, since more than likely, his or her favorite team is looonnnnnnnnnng gone from the Super Bowl. 

And yes, I'm guilty of this too, although my team rooting interest is almost always (as in 100% of the time) tied together with whoever I bet on. If you're betting on a game and have a rooting angle, I get it. If one of the teams is a division rival of yours, I get that, too. For example, no way should Bears fans be rooting for the Packers in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, and vice versa years before that.

However, when people have no reason to root for or against any team, they will still find some kind of angle to do just that. Out of thin air, they'll find a reason. For this Super Bowl, I've already found a few people who have been bitching about Colin Kaepernick. Yes, he does come off as a douchebag, and yes, he did trademark the word Kaepernicking. But if any of us were in the same spot and our last names got famous, we'd be doing the same thing. After all, it's better to make money off of your name than have someone else do it. Also, some of the hate is rooted in the common ingredient of hate - jealousy.

On the other side, I know some folks might be rooting against the Ravens because "Ray Lewis got away with murder" (blah, blah, blah...find something truthful to hate guys for). At the end of the day, people who aren't already fans of the teams or don't have any monetary interest on either team will find a way to root for or against the Niners or the Ravens. 

Is it human nature? Maybe. I feel like we do this with things other than sports as well. With TV shows and movies that we watch, we root for who we perceive to be the good guys and wish ill thoughts and fates for the bad guys.

Word of warning to those casually rooting for the Ravens (or against the Niners) who may be in my presence on February 3rd: I may curse at you, but only because I'm rooting for the Niners. Like, for real rooting for them.

And also my squares.