College Football - Week 1 Bets

....

Sike!

None.

Are you shocked? I kinda am. I usually have some kind of action every day of the NCAA season outside of the bowl weekends.

It's necessary for me to maintain discipline this year, especially in week 1 where absolutely nothing looks great to bet. The cupcake part of the schedule is right now for teams such as Alabama (38 point favorites), Ohio State (laying 34 against Kent State), and other ridiculous spreads.

LSU against Oregon would be the only game I'd consider betting, but I have no read on that game.

If you have followed this blog since last year (almost reached the one year mark of the blog being active), you know that this discipline is somewhat rare. My main point of emphasis this year when it comes to gambling- and it should be yours too - is not to force bets for the sake of betting.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend  everyone.

Tempering My Expectations

Last year was the first year of gambling every week of the NFL season where I ended up profitting. A sharp record of 44-29 in the regular season (an additional 6-5 in the playoffs) led to $605 profit/$88 in postseason. For those of you who know gambling, I'll give you a breakdown on how I did in analyzing certain angles of the games. I'll combine playoffs and regular season:

Betting on:
Favorites - 9-13 (-$257)
Underdogs - 19-10 ($313)
Overs - 13-6 ($430)
Unders - 8-4 ($267)

If only I could have avoided betting on favorites! I had an over/under streak of 10 in a row in December (note: for gambling novices, over/unders are the lines set by Vegas that indicate the # of total points by both teams expected to be scored by both teams), which really pushed me over the edge.

So what does this mean for me this year?

Absolutely....nothing.

Brand new season means blank slate. It means different trends will have to be analyzed, different teams will have to be considered as good teams to back or bet against in favorable spots (i.e. fading teams). It also means that I have to maintain my same discipline that I had last year in order to profit again.

This gambling discipline includes not betting heavy amounts during a streak of winning and not chasing (betting for the sake of trying to "chase your losses"). Another thing I hope to do better this year is betting on isolated (i.e. primetime) games just for the sake of betting. I've fallen into this trap too many times when I don't have a great read on a game.

In order to profit again, I'm gonna need to practice what I preach. While I'm not sure I should expect to do better than last year (59% clip over a season for a full-time gambler is about as high as you should expect), I think my knowledge of teams and trends - in addition to these habits I picked up on last year - should help me succeed in making some more money again in 2011-12.

Better Date Than Never (Intro)

This afternoon, I spent a couple hours conquering one of my biggest social phobias. No, it wasn't drinking outside naked (psh, like I'd be afraid of that). Today, for the first time, I set up an online dating account. It doesn't sound like something that someone should be afraid of admitting that they use.

Maybe it wasn't so much being afraid of admitting to use as it was that I just assumed that my random daily life of going out would have me meeting new people on an occasional basis. As it turns out, unless you (or at least I) meet new friends from the current group of friends that you have, then it makes it very difficult to achieve this goal.

Ok, so maybe it was a small fear of admitting to use...

As you can figure out by now, I am single again. Nothing to weep about or say "I'm sorry" about - we both agreed about the different directions that we wanted to go and it was about as mutual of a breakup as there could be. After exploring a possibility that went nowhere, I decided that I would give this dating site crap a shot.

It wasn't until Friday where I seriously considered it though. My friend uses the site OkCupid and had it recommended to him by a friend. It seems like he's had some bites, but nothing major yet. So I figure, why the hell should I be afraid to go on a site like this?

It's not like my normal single life ways of getting girls throughout the years were working. In the back of my mind though, I figured I'd want to meet women randomly and hope we connect and not depend on a match maker site. The stigma of being a loser who needs a site probably entered my mind, but why, I don't know. It's not like at the end of the day it matters how you meet.

I am fully on board now.

In fact, dating sites seem to be a better way of matching people with similar personalities. The 80 or so questions that I answered about myself and certain situations have (so far) matched me up with people who have similar likes and interests - assuming they are telling the truth in their profiles. I'd like to think they are, but maybe it's the naive part of me that believes that. I know I didn't fudge anything on my profile - for I would like to get the most I possibly can out of it.

I know of a few people that have used sites before with success. Whether they work long-term better than random meetings with people is up for debate. For someone such as myself that has limited resources on meeting new people consistently, online doesn't seem like a bad method of at least starting the conversation that would normally take place at a bar or party. And not only that, you're conversing with someone you believe to have similar interests as you already.

I've messaged a few girls so far - so we'll see if anything comes of it. I'm sure I'll share my story/stories of how it works (or if it doesn't). All I know is that I couldn't sit here making excuses anymore on not to use a site (especially a free one), so here goes nothing.

Wish me well.

Back to My Writing Roots

Suddenly feeling a creative writing buzz coming about.

This may be something I delete in time, depending on how it looks to me in a day/week/month, but here goes nothing.

I promise I'm not drunk, just inspired to write.

My Fuel

Like the best detective educating the sleuth,
It always helps to hear the truth.
No matter how hard it is to take,
It's only as bad as you want to make it.

Living in a world of fiction
Creates a state of confusion and friction.
They say the truth will set you free
But many worry about at what cost it will be.

Save me the sugar coat, I'm not hungry nor cold.
I'll sail on another boat. Gonna take this poker hand and fold it
Into the muck. Ran out of luck.
Like a Big Wheel facing a Monster Truck.

You thought I might find another word to rhyme in those above lines there.
The truth is, I just don't care.
Right now, I'm empowered by my sharpest tool-
The gift of word - my energy, my fuel.

No Time to Weight

It's been a week of being on medication and going to see a physical therapist, and so far, so good. The back appears to be getting better, and hopefully by the time the month's worth of physical therapy appointments are done, I will be back to normal. I'm really tempted to test it out by bowling a game, even though that's how I threw out the back. But for now, I'll be smart and sit it out while watching my teammates bowl. Watching from the sidelines has been difficult. When you get used to a routine - and when you're passionate about something like I am about bowling, it's tough to watch it and know you can't do it.

One thing I'm glad that I haven't missed too much, surprisingly, is beer. These medications (for pain reduction and muscle relaxing) are not to be taken with alcohol. I'm sure most medications are that way, but I've taken this as a serious warning. The few beers I have had in the past week have been well after I took my last medication (like 6-7 hours), and in each situation, I only drank a beer.

Even watching people drink hasn't been as bad as I thought. Normally, that would be the biggest form of pressure to drink - when your peers are pouring down the suds. The ability to resist has been better than I imagined.

I was told by my physical therapist that losing some weight would help the back. This has inspired me to try eating healthier in addition to the reduction in alcohol consumption. As of 8/15/2011, I sit at 217 pounds, so we will see how this change of diets (in addition to moving around a little bit) will help my weight loss (and in turn, my back).

I did so good with my working out the last time 3 years ago and threw it all away in the past year. I need to get in the workout mindset again. My friends Jen and Steve are doing a good job with it- so much so, that when they came over last week for a swim and BBQ, they brought over some turkey burgers.

I need to get into the eating right/exercising regimen again. Let's hope that I (as well as Steve, Jen and any of my other friends who are aiming to get healthy/healthier) can get this in order.

Breaking Good: Recent Records That Will Be Hard to Beat

As a frequent watcher of sporting events, one of the main topics that comes up on a continual basis is records/milestones that will never be broken or achieved. Each time, the same records are trotted out as unbreakable and are usually reflective of different eras of the sport of which they speak. Records like Cy Young's career win total or Wilt Chamberlain's numerous records (notably points in a game and points per game in a season) are just some of these records that will never be sniffed upon anytime soon, yet alone broken.

I decided I would compile some milestones or benchmarks in particular sports (whether it be a season or career) that have been set in the past 10-20 years that we will never see in the next 10-20 years (or perhaps ever), based on how each particular game is evolving. For example's sake, I'm going to focus on the sports that I know: NFL, MLB and NBA.

NFL records that will not be broken any time soon (in a 16 game regular season format):

Tomlinson's 31 TDs in 2006: Even though this record was broken several times in a 3-4 year span before this, I believe this record will stand the test of time. The way teams are going towards running backs by committee, there is no need for a guy to carry the ball as much as LT did that year.

No one (not even Jenn Sterger) will touch Brett Favre's small....err, large records

Favre's 299 games in a row as starting QB: I assume this number includes playoffs - I saw it as this on the nfl.com page. With the concussion rule the way it is now (where they will make sure players cannot play if signs of a concussion are apparent), I don't see a QB (or any position for that matter) making it through 18+ seasons worth of games without missing a game. Peyton is the closest, but he still has over 5 years to go and may even miss Week 1 of this year. Of Favre's numerous accolades, this one should stand the test of time for the longest. (Note: NFL.com has the record wrong - my partner in crime Tim found the number to be 297 regular season games).

Jerry Rice's 1549 catches in a career: With all of his down years at the end weighing down his career average, he still averaged 75 catches a year in his career. Even if he didn't play an unbelievable 20 years in the league and ended it about 5 years earlier, many of his records would still be untouchable. A 22 year old receiver entering the league would need to average just under 100 catches a season for 16 seasons to get this record. It's just not gonna happen. Rice has so many unbreakable records to speak of, but this is the one I wanted to highlight.

Marvin Harrison - 143 catches in 2002: Never mind that this record is 20 higher than its second place finisher, the best offenses these days feature QBs who spread the ball all over the field, not to just one primary guy. Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis and New England seem to have different receivers leading the team in catches/yards from game to game. There really isn't anyone currently capable of grabbing an average of 9 catches per game that it would take to beat this record.


MLB records/milestones that are unreachable in today's era

Cal Ripken's games streak: This one is fairly obviously, but no current player (nor will any future player) have the desire to play 16-17 years worth of games in a row. The best players need a handful of games off in a year now. With salaries the way they are, managers have no incentive to play a superstar through an injury that may require a few days of rest. Ripken's record is safe.

Just like the jersey he sports here, Randy Johnson's 300K seasons are a thing of the past.

300Ks in a season for a pitcher: The last pitchers to achieve 300+Ks were Schilling and Randy Johnson for the 2002 D-Backs. Johnson topped the duo with 334, which was only the fourth highest total of his career. For a starter to get that many in a 5-man rotation (33-35 starts considering some rotations skip the 5th starters on days of), a pitcher needs to average 10Ks per game. These days, 10Ks is considered a great game - so to expect someone to average that (or even 9Ks per game) in the Pitch Count era is far-fetched.

60 Home Runs in a season: Unless another cheater era begins, I see Jose Bautista's number from last year (54) to be about the ceiling for home run hitters. Since the baseball drug testing began, home run numbers have gone down. There are some pitcher friendly parks being built these days (Petco comes to mind), but much of it has to do with normal-strength hitters hitting against normal-strength pitchers.

Ichiro's 262 hits in a season (2004): Considering that Ichiro is the only current player with a season in the top 80 of hits in a season (he has 4 of the top 80 hit seasons of all time), there doesn't appear to be anyone on the horizon that could sniff this record. Juan Pierre (2004) and Michael Young (2005) are the closest active players to this record when they got 221 hits in their respective seasons.

NBA Records/Milestones that are out of reach

Jordan's 30 points per game for a career:  If you start your career with a couple of "sub-par" (when compared to Jordan's average) 22/game seasons, you have some major work to do. Jordan's average would have been higher had it not been for his years with the Wizards, which just goes to show you how dominant he was.

No one will get to 80+ points again any time soon. B-Bo knows this.

80 points in a game: Kobe achieved this back in 2006 (81 points to be exact), making him the first player since Wilt's 100 points to break the 80 point barrier. Not only do you have to be a tremendous ball hog to get this record, but you have to be a ball hog that can actually shoot well. Also, you have to be in a tight game where you won't be sat in the last 5-6 minutes of a game. Bryant's Lakers were trailing by double digits for the middle part of the game against the Raptors before pulling away in the 4th quarter. Someone like Carmelo has the best chance of getting this achievement.

Bulls' 72 wins in 1995-96: Ok, so none of these records have been team records thus far. I figured I'd throw in the one record that has been set recently that will not be beat in our lifetimes. For teams to actually get this record, they actually have to want to get this record. This means playing your starters (who have to be the elite of the elite) throughout the season without much rest. Once teams clinch home court advantage throughout the playoffs, there's very little incentive for the top players to continue to play 35-40 mins/game unless there's particular bonuses attached to their contract relating to individual marks. And by the time home court is clinched throughout a year, teams are well past the 10 loss mark. I don't see this one being touched.


I'm sure there's other records I'm neglecting, but these ones come to mind as recent records/milestones that seem untouchable based on how their respective sports are evolving. If there's any recent records or milestones that are untouchable, please share your thoughts.

Walkin' About Their Generation

I haven't had any good topics to write about lately, but after taking about a mile walk around the neighborhood (as part of my regimen that my physical therapist said I should move around more), one came to mind - and sure enough, it has to do with the topic of neighborhoods.

Remember those days your parents told you about, with them playing with their friends outside in their neighborhood, goofing around and having a good time on a daily basis? Hell, you may even remember it yourself with your youth, playing kickball or baseball or some activity that actually took place outside and proved that people actually lived in the neighborhood.

Nowadays, you're lucky to see kids outside. Everyone knows the culprits of this - video games, technology that would have seemed unfathomable 60 years ago and will seem ancient in about 5 years, computers, fear of idiots who roam the world, Gary Glitter, and so forth. There's not too many times I drive around in the late afternoon or early evening (whether it be during school months or not) where I have to worry about kids playing outside and getting in the way of my car.

In my short evening walk, it was nice to see people outside and kids being active. It seems to be the exception to the rule these days. I miss the days of my youth going outside all the time and participating in whatever sport we wanted to play at the time. It seems like this may be the generation of kids that will never have that to miss since they never experienced it like past generations did.

I hope my future walks will show me that maybe I've been observing life on the wrong blocks and people go out more often than I realize.