Another Lesson Learned & NFL Week 4 Picks

As readers may know, I bombed completely on NCAA picks and continued my success in the NFL.

Week 3	Week 4
NFL 7-1, +394	NCAA 2-8, -$400
Totals 3-0, $213	Totals 0-1, -$110
MLs 2-0, $126	MLs 0-3, -$170
Spreads, 2-1, $55	Spreads 2-4, -$120
YTD: 15-7-3, +$389	YTD: 8-12, -$325
Totals: 7-1-1, +$327	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-0, +$126	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 6-6-2, -$64	Spreads: 8-6, +$65

Between the footballs, I am 23-19-3 and up $64. Ever since my opening night Under debacle, I haven't lost a bet when wagering on over/under totals (7-0-1) - leaving off exactly where I was last year.

One lesson learned from this past week is very simple: Don't bet on teams that you know absolutely nothing about.

I know this sounds simple and common sense, but sometimes reading about one of these teams and how they are perceived by smart handicappers can get a novice like me to throw money on a team. This happened a few times this past Saturday with college football. Outside of my viewing of Big Ten games, prime time/isolated games and matchups featuring highly regarded teams, I know very little about college football. My betting angles are highly determined by certain guys on the advice site I use (covers.com) that I trust.

It's always better to bet on teams/games where you've watched these teams at least once or twice and read some pieces on teams. There's too many games for people to be experts on every single team/conference in the nation. I always believed that studying up on a smaller conference that doesn't get bet heavily would be the best way to make a living gambling, but I've never gotten around to following my advice on that.


Blog note: I haven't narrowed down any NCAA picks yet, so I'll save that for tomorrow or Saturday morning. I was just too damn bored to put off writing my NFL picks blog for the week.

Fools Gold Pick of the Week - NFL Week 4

The Fools Gold pick moved to 3-0 with an ugly Seahawks winning (which I happened to bet the money line on instead of taking the points). Most of the time, I'll take the points but I felt confident that Arizona wouldn't win - yet alone cover. Looking to make this 4-0, so here goes nothing:

Buffalo -3/3.5 at Cincinnati - How could Buffalo only be three point favorites coming off of an incredible come-from-behind victory against their division rivals (New England) and Cincy coming off of a dismal performance against an equally dismal team (San Fran)? One word: letdown.

Buffalo was pulling an 0-fer against New England in their past 15 games against them and was determined to end that streak - even after they spotted Brady and company three touchdowns before the last-second chip shot field goal. A mental letdown is to be expected against a non-divisional opponent.

Whether it be Cedric Benson (who is awaiting word on his suspension at the moment) or Bernard Scott, I expect the Bengals to be able to run the ball like they did last year against the Bills (Benson went for 25 carries and 124 yards in a home loss).

Also, the Bengals come into Week 4 with the third-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Granted, these teams they faced aren't necessarily offensive juggernauts (Bengals, Broncos, Niners), but I do think they'll keep this lower-scoring than what the Bills have been comfortable with so far this year.

I am aware of the loss that the Bengals had in this matchup last year. I just believe that at this moment in the season, the Bills are due for a stinker. The circumstances seem ripe for one.

Likely betting: Cincy +3 (hoping to get it at 3.5 by game time). YTD: 3-0 (2-0 on games I've bet of these Fools picks)


Other NFL Picks I'm scoping

Boy, would I love to keep this 12-2-2 run of the past two weeks going. I know I have a chance myself to encounter a Buffalo Bills letdown, but no reason to think that I can't continue to progress as a smart NFL gambler.

Houston -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh - Already booked. My book has fluctuated anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 for this game, and I don't think it's going to get down to the key -3 number, so I figured I'd lock it in now. I love this matchup for Houston's pass attack against Pittsburgh's average secondary. Also love the matchup for Houston's pass rush vs. Pittsburgh's weakened line, which got burned alive against the Colts last week.

Chicago -6 vs. Carolina - I think Carolina (particularly Newton) is in for a rude awakening against a Bears defense that was made to look average against the Packers - this tends to happen against all teams that play the Packers. Carolina's running game has been non-existent so far, and I think the Bears defense will be able to exploit this and force a couple of turnovers on Newton. A defensive score would not shock me. I think the Bears win this by 14+. Also considering the under (currently at 42)

San Fran +9 at Philly - I think this will be the third game in a row that Vick does not finish a game. Their offensive line is pedestrian - Patrick Willis and company are licking their chops at building off of their defensive domination against the Bengals. Normally, I'd be worried about the west coast team travelling east, but San Fran stayed out east after their tilt in Ohio. I think Vernon Davis will finally become a consistent part of the San Fran offense that they desperately need after his 100+ yard performance. I think this stays within the spread (hoping it climbs to 10 for a little more insurance), with a mild chance of a San Fran upset.

NYJ +3.5 at Baltimore - Mangold should be coming back this week - an important component of the Jets' offensive line. They'll need him against Ngata and the rest of the Ravens pass rush. I think this will be the defensive, smash mouth battle that the NFL has been lacking this year. Getting the half point here will be key - I think this will be a game decided by a field goal one way or the other.

Other sides I am considering: Seattle +4, Tennessee pick'em

Totals I am considering: Phil/SF Under 44, Chi/Car Under 42, Pitt/Hou Over 45, Balt/NYJ Under 42.5

Check www.twitter.com/brianbolek (or Twitter @brianbolek) for updates

I may or may not end up posting an NCAA picks blog and may just post my plays on Twitter. Stay tuned.

Start your weekends off right, my friends and family. Love you all.

We're Talking Baseball: Excitement, Disrespect & Playoff Predictions

Random baseball thoughts:

Blowing the Load

If baseball's amazing action yesterday were analogized in sexual terms, one might say that MLB blew it all out on the foreplay part.

What a kickoff to the baseball playoffs. It was the most excited I've been watching baseball since 2005. Unfortunately, I don't see there being an opportunity to go up from here.

Sure, there will be moments that stick out. Perhaps another walk-off home run to decide a game or a great catch at the wall that prevents a bases-clearing double in the late innings could capture our attentions briefly.

To get that kind of excitement from many different games at once, however, will be nearly impossible to match.

Tampa Bay Rons

Putting baseball in a political spectrum, Tampa Bay reminds me much of Ron Paul. All of the semantics surrounding their entry into the playoffs is all about the Red Sox collapse, not Tampa Bay's strong push to make it to this point. This is much like anytime Dr. Paul is mentioned (or more appropriately, not mentioned) in an article addressing percentages in the polls.

The Cardinals get more credit for their comeback to make the playoffs than the Rays do - which has to do with the news market having an interest in the Cardinals (particularly their history) and very little interest in a team lucky to draw 15,000 fans to a game. Also, it helps when the team that collapsed is based in the Northeast, where much of the mainstream media are based - and of course, another team that is rich in history throughout the history of baseball.

If the Rays win the World Series, Sportscenter may promote it as "Phillies Collapse" rather than promoting the victors. I could see the same for Ron Paul if he were lucky enough to get put on the Republican ticket - "Obama Falters in Re-Election Bid".

Rooting Interest

Speaking of the Rays, I definitely have a financial stake in rooting for them to win it all. On Tuesday when they were tied with the Red Sox, my site had the Rays' odds of winning the WS at 18/1, so I threw 20 on it.

In the other AL series, I am hoping that the Tigers can pull it out. My last live bet on BookMaker is a $10 bet to win the World Series at 40/1.

The NL team with the best odds (best being relative on value) on 5dimes is the Brewers, coming in at 8/1. I am debating a small bet on them as well.

What's Your Fantasy?

Baseball isn't as sexy of a sport for me to play in the fantasy sports realm of life. This was my first year of the past 4 where I didn't play a money league.

However, I still do take some pride in my teams, and I'll take any championship that I can. Even if it means when I didn't really win it, per se. I finished a league with the top seed and had my pitching carry me to a 6-6 tie. However, since I held the top seed and that's the first tiebreaker, I took down the crown. My other leagues lent themselves to average finishes (6 of 12 and 7 of 10), so I really wanted this one bad.

Analyzing My Preseason Picks/Making New Ones

Back in March, I wrote a piece on my predictions for the MLB season, foolishly selecting the White Sox losing to the Phillies in the Fall Classic. While I was way off on half of that, I think the second of that is looking pretty strong entering October.

Division predictions that went well: Brewers and Rangers were my only correct predictions.
Division predictions that faded during the second half: The Giants could never muster any offense to support their strong staff and the Red Sox did their best to mirror the beginning and end of their season.
Division predictions that never had a chance: The Twins (last place finish) and Braves (distant second place) were easily bested.
Wild cards: White Sox (oooooops) and Phillies (tried being cute and having them win the World Series after winning the wild card).

New prediction for the World Series (part 3): Phillies over Rays
My first prediction bombed. My midseason prediction (Phils over Tigers) could very well happen. I just like the Rays' pitching over the other teams left in the AL.

Even though I'd rather have one of my bets come in, I don't see Philly's staff being bested. Pitching carries teams in the postseason.

NFL/College blog to come tomorrow.

Have a good evening everyone.

College Consolidation & Week 4 NCAAF picks

Super conferences are the newest college trend - move over paying of players! The trend is so prevalent, it's easy to forget there's an actual season going on with all the focus being on the conference reshuffling.

In a few years, I see many of the big conferences in football being the equivalent of the Big East in basketball - 16 teams. Each conference will have its separate divisions for the purposes of a conference championship. Joining one of these super conferences will be THE ONLY WAY that teams like Boise and TCU will have a chance to win a national title.

(An aside - If Boise is one of two teams undefeated at the end of the year, there WILL be a 1-loss team that plays in the championship game in place of them. Every year, teams leap over Boise in the rankings when voters can't justify putting Boise in a spot where they may play in the title game. Boise is the perfect example of why there needs to be some readjustment to the championship system - whether it be an 8 team playoff or the like).

Funny thing is, no matter how big it gets, the Big Ten will never change its name. No wonder why math scores are so low in our country. At least those airheads out west could change their name to the Pac-12. Yeah yeah, I know there is already a Big 12. Can't the Big Ten rename itself The Dirty Dozen for the time being?


Bolek's Bets

After a perfect week of betting in my first week of betting (3-0, +$120), I dipped back into reality with a 3-4, -$35 week last week (including the Th & F games)

Last week: 3-4, -$35; YTD thru 9-17: 6-4, +$85

Already bet - Cincy -7 (-120) - easy victory. Little scare in this bet.

Central Florida +110 ML at BYU - UCF's defense - plus knowing I'll be bored and wanted something to follow - have me betting this Friday night tilt.

SD St +10.5 at Michigan - What may be touted as the Hoke Bowl, Michigan's defense isn't good enough to spot Hoke's former team this many points.

Notre Dame -6.5 at Pittsburgh - ND showed the type of team they can be last week against MSU when they don't have the turnover issues. I think it carries over here.

Western Michigan +13.5 at Illinois - I think Illinois will win, but I sense somewhat of a letdown. One thing to be weary of - Illinois was embarrassed by W. Michigan at Ford Field a few seasons ago, so revenge could be a factor.

Considering - Oklahoma -19.5, Alabama -11, Clemson -2.5

As always, follow my Twitter feed for updates if you'd like @brianbolek or www.twitter.com/brianbolek

Enjoy your weekends.

Tom Brady is Sexy, Other NFL Observations & Week 3 Thoughts

Another week in the books, another week on the horizon. Some thoughts came from my Week 2 observations:

The Best D in New England is BraDy

New England's strong offensive start (36.5 points/game) has helped mask what definitely isn't one of the strong defenses that we are used to from the New England dynasty. There's no questioning Brady's awesomeness, and he's clearly the best weapon there is in the NFL. I'd worry about NE's chances to win it all if I were the Patriots though. As the Jets showed in the playoffs last year, if you make Brady look average, the Pats don't have the defense they once did to carry them to the next level. For now, I'm sticking with my Packers pick.

QBs should wear flags

The late hits being called on QBs is nothing new, but through the first two weeks, some of these calls are borderline ridiculous at best and shows me that the NFL should just take the next logical step that they are going with this pampering of QBs and put flags on them.  That way, at least you could justify all the flags that always end up surrounding the quarterback on a weekly basis.

The constant flags make it impossible for defensive players to do what they were taught to do their entire careers - hit people.

Cam Newton - Too Much Love

I'm not saying he doesn't deserve some love, but all these media outlets are doing their best Katie Morgan impressions on Cam right now. I'm impressed with his completion rate (62.7%) but I won't be on board with him until he cuts back on interceptions (4 so far). Obviously, the season is young AND he is a rookie - so there is clearly room for improvement. I do think he will be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback throughout his career. But remember, his team is 0-2 and in his case (unlike Brady's), averaging 400+ yards a game is probably not gonna be the formula that wins them games.

Tony Romo - Too Much Hate

I bet you didn't know this stat about Romo - he has the league's highest passer rating in the 4th quarter since 2006 (source: check it here - first posted on ESPN). You'd never know based on the media's non-Cam Newton love for Romo. Much like LeBron, Romo's personality rubs people the wrong way and seems to bring on the majority of his haters.

While Romo only has 1 playoff win (to 3 losses in the 4 pro seasons that he ended the season as starter - last year not included), he has the same number of Super Bowl wins as Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Matt Ryan - who are three of the QBs considered to be among the elite of QBs in the NFL. Yet, you never hear about their inability to win in the playoffs or the big game - Rivers (3-4 record in 5 years of starting), Vick (2-3), Ryan (0-2 in 3 seasons).

I mention Super Bowl because that's what seems to be the only way people look at Romo's success. I think he is a top-10 quarterback in the league, but don't think he's top 5. Thus, I think people should stop looking at his career as a failure because of this.

I'll take him any day of the week on the Niners, especially with the guts he had to return against San Fran in Week 2 with his injured ribs and lungs.

Fools Gold

Last week: Tennessee easily covered the +6 against Baltimore; YTD: 2-0
(A quick explanation: Fools Gold is a game I highlight every week where a pointspread doesn't seem right and look to figure out why. In many cases, I will often bet against the bet that the general betting public will make)

Fools Gold Play of the Week: Arizona -3.5 at Seattle - Seattle couldn't have looked any more turdish in their back-to-back defeats to start the year against San Fran and Pittsburgh. Their offense has been offensive, and if they were playing any other team other than San Fran in Week 1, they would have lost that game by 24+. San Fran let Seattle stay in that game and only pulled away late because of Ted Ginn's returns.

Meanwhile, Arizona has played a few games down to the wire, holding on against Carolina before losing late in the game against the surprising 2-0 Redskins. Based on how each team has played, you'd think the line would be closer to Ariz -5 or 6 at least, but Seattle (no matter their personnel) plays well at home. The 12th man will get behind Seattle in their first home game of the season (and first home game since the upset against New Orleans last year) and Seattle wins an ugly game. Likely betting: Seattle +3.5

NFL Bets Last Week: 5-1-2, +$175 (Twitter shows my gambling updates the best - didn't bet KC last week, so check that out if interested @brianbolek)
YTD: 8-6-3 (lots of pushes this year so far, had none all of last year), -$6

More Week 3 picks:

Cin -3 (+105) vs. SF - already locked in. I see the Bengals winning this by a couple scores. They nearly pulled off the impressive feat of winning 2 road games to start the season despite low expectations. AJ Green has a performance that is a step below from Austin's the week before and Cincy wins by a couple scores.
NO -4 vs. Hou - Houston's first test this year. New Orleans' defense got back on track with a half dozen sacks of Cutler and will carry it over to this game. NO by 10. I think this one will be lower scoring than most people - might play the under as well.
KC +14.5 at SD - This is more of a system play than anything. Historically, teams who come off of two games where they get blown out will often cover in the third game. I don't have exact records, but just know this from gambling all these years and reading forums on the topic. Hoping to catch this around 15 or 15.5 but will be happy with 14.5.

Leans: Indy +10, Wash +5.5, Cle -2.5, Oak +3.5

Survivor pool pick for Week 3: Philadelphia (sticking with the home team system after considering New England)

Other picks will emerge from the heap of games I'm sure - likely some of the leans. To follow those, check out my twitter at www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in twitter-speak, @brianbolek.

Good luck to everyone's teams (fantasy, gambling and especially REAL teams!)

Chi-town Date of Mind (Chapter 5)

The date went well.



The end.



Really, that's all I have to say....it went well!



The girl is awesome and the date (hamburger joint and a movie) went well. I think I mentioned the date went well, right?


Dating sites do work. Best choice I've made this year.


These abstract blogs are a lot easier to write I must say!


If you wanna know more about it, I'd rather share in person. Figured I'd let all B-Bo Knows Online Dating Blog readers know of the result.


Ok, this time for real.....The End.

I Love Being Right - Modesty at its Worst

Of course, everyone loves being right. Who wouldn't? But there are certain aspects of life where being right gives us more satisfaction than in others.

For me, of course, it is in the area of gambling - particulaly sports betting. The feeling of a winning bet is hard to describe to someone who hasn't placed and won a bet. I dare not compare it to sex because....well.....yeah.

But even a subset within gambling that gives me the most satisfaction are the particular bets that you know that most people aren't on. If you've read my week 1 and 2 previews of NFL, you see a section titled "Fool's Gold", which highlights a game each week where a spread seems too good to be true, a bet that just seems like it's begging for action on one side.

These are the bets that make me proud to be a gambler. Like I've said before, these sucker bets, also known in the gambling community as "square bets", are not always wrong. Last week's NE game against Miami is the perfect example of this - a game I lost money on.

However, today had some interesting lines that screamed "BET ME!!!", which in Gamblish means "bet the other side". Baltimore was example 1 of this - over 85% of people in Yahoo pick'em odds leagues selected them. The more I thought about it, the easier it was for me to bet Tennessee.

Second BET ME was actually one where I bet into the side where I shouldn't have - Dallas laying (spotting) three points at San Fran. Yes, I bet against my team - but make no mistake, as my friend Tim can attest to, I was rooting hard for San Fran to win this game. I didn't think the bet was square until I saw that all 11 people in our pick'em league picked Dallas. For the bet's sake (not for my fandom's sake), Dallas came back and made the game a non-bet with the 3 point win.

Third BET ME was Philly laying 2.5 points against Atlanta, who got spanked by Chicago in Week 1. I think many people had short memories on Atlanta - who are a dominant home team in the Matty Ryan era - losing only 2 games that he has started in the Georgia Dome since he became their franchise QB. Yeah, I come off pompous by saying I saw Atlanta covering a mile away, because there was severe doubt on their cover here (it took till the last minutes for Atl to seal the deal).

You'd think with all of this hot shit talk on my part that I did awesome in the pick'em league, but quite the opposite. My picks against the spread were 4-9-2 (2-0-1 in the above games, 2-9-1 in the others). However, as I was getting to a few paragraphs ago before getting into specific bets, there are certain bets that you want to win more than others, just so you can tell people, "I was right!"

And despite the piss-poor record in the pick'em league, I actually ended up being 5-1-1 with my bets.

Winning bets were: Ten +6; Ind/Cle Over 39 (I tailed a bet that a respected gambler that I read a lot about was making here); Pitt -14; Atl +2.5 and Atlanta Over 23.5 team points.
Losing bet was: Wash -3.5
Push was: Dallas -3

I make my initial reads in a blog on Thursday or Friday but usually don't lock my bets in until Saturday night or Sunday morning. This week, I was unsure until Sunday morning on my final plan of attack as far as bets go. I try updating my bets on my Twitter, if you ever care to follow it (www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in Twitter language - @brianbolek). This is where you will find my bets for the day as I make them.

Monday night - I might not bet, but let's be serious. I'd lean St Louis if I hear of Jackson being healthy, but will likely lean in the direction of the Under 44 (or so) for that game.

My goal for the Fool's Bet column throughout the 17 weeks is a 12-5 or better record. I will likely bet it every week and hope that this goal - if achieved - makes me a profit.

Yes, I know I'm being an asshole with this blog here, but I don't care. One thing about me that you can't discredit is that I will put my money where my mouth is, so if you feel like I am on the wrong side of a bet, I am usually up for making side bets in addition to my 4-5 games of betting.

I hope I'm right more often, especially at clips like this. But realistically, you have to expect no more than a 53-55% winning percentage at best over a long span of betting. There will be those weeks where you lose 75%-100% of your bets, but always gotta keep your head even keel when betting.

Bet against some of these future sucker bets at your own risk! I'm here to help you out and make sure you don't overlook certain aspects of games that go into making point spreads what they are.

Lovie/Hate Relationship: The Dissection of Why Bears Fans Hate The Coach (and week 3 college picks)

With the start of NFL season in Chicago comes the annual "Fire Lovie Smith" chants from many fans.

But why?

Is it something to do with his personality, which is the antithesis of everything that the most beloved coach in Bears history of the past 30 years (DAAAAA COACH) represented?

Is it something to do with his in-game adjustments or use of challenges?

Is it just the nature of sports, when a team's fan base calls for a coach's head whenever they go a decent amount of time without a championship?

It couldn't have anything to do with race, could it?

It has to be one of these things, because it couldn't be about his record as a coach. Entering the 2011 season, Lovie sported a 63-49 record as the Bears coach in his 7 years at the helm. In this span, Lovie has won over half of the division championships in the division (4), made two conference championship games and one Super Bowl.

In the decade preceding Lovie's reign as head coach, the Bears mainly suffered through the Dick Jauron (1999-2003) and Dave Wannstedt (1993-1998) eras. In these 11 seasons, the Bears went to the playoffs twice, combining to go 75-101 between the two coaches.

I hear all the complaining about Lovie, but as a Niners fan, I have absolutely no sympathy for Bears fans. From 2004-2010, the Niners sport this amazing run of dominance:

2004: 2-14
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9 (hey now! Let's not overachieve here!)
2007: 5-11 (that's more like it)
2008: 7-9
2009: 8-8
2010: 6-10

For those of you who can do math, that's a record of 39-73. In that time, we won exactly 0 conference championships, 0 division championships, 0 playoff games (hard to do when you make the playoffs ZERO times in that span) and are currently on our 4th coach since Lovie started. So please excuse me if I find this Lovie talk to be a tad annoying.

Does any Bears fan wanna trade for the Niners past 7 years in a straight-up deal? I'll gladly take what you have: a boring coach who has won 4 divisions for a team who has had 4 coaches and no playoff appearances.


I think a lot of Lovie's problem is that he is not Ditka and will always be compared to him. Lovie would need to win more than one Super Bowl for people to even consider him better than Ditka. The 1985 season will always be held up on a pedestal in the pantheon of sports seasons (in Chicago and nationwide), so Lovie (and any other future Bears coach) will never be able to escape that shadow.

I hope that the day Lovie is let go (or heaven forbid, RETIRES from the coaching profession as a Bears coach), that Bears fans can at least give the guy some credit for coaching many teams that not a whole lot of people expected much from and led them to success more often than not.

Because when they hire Dick Jauron or Dave Wannstedt Jr. (I hope Wannstedt didn't name a kid after himself, this is more for example's sake) to lead the team afterwards, you might be in for some cold winters as a Bears fan.

Note: If I don't respond to potential/inevitable criticism of this blog (whether it be on fb comments or in here), it's not that I am dismissing your comments. It's just that I don't know how else I could state my case beyond the above material that I could say any differently.

Week 3 college picks

I've made a few picks this week so far, going 1-1 between LSU -3.5 and Boise's first half line (+$20 combined). These two games bring my college season record to 4-1, +$140.

Notre Dame -5 (vs. Mich St) - $55 to win $50
Nebraska -17 (vs. Washington) - $55 to win $50
Illinois -2 (vs. Arizona St) - $55 to win $50

I may make more bets throughout the day. I'll try keeping them updated- may start updating my bets on my Twitter account (twitter.com/brianbolek - follow me @brianbolek).

Have a good day everyone. Make your Saturdays enjoyable and prosperous.