Super conferences are the newest college trend - move over paying of players! The trend is so prevalent, it's easy to forget there's an actual season going on with all the focus being on the conference reshuffling.
In a few years, I see many of the big conferences in football being the equivalent of the Big East in basketball - 16 teams. Each conference will have its separate divisions for the purposes of a conference championship. Joining one of these super conferences will be THE ONLY WAY that teams like Boise and TCU will have a chance to win a national title.
(An aside - If Boise is one of two teams undefeated at the end of the year, there WILL be a 1-loss team that plays in the championship game in place of them. Every year, teams leap over Boise in the rankings when voters can't justify putting Boise in a spot where they may play in the title game. Boise is the perfect example of why there needs to be some readjustment to the championship system - whether it be an 8 team playoff or the like).
Funny thing is, no matter how big it gets, the Big Ten will never change its name. No wonder why math scores are so low in our country. At least those airheads out west could change their name to the Pac-12. Yeah yeah, I know there is already a Big 12. Can't the Big Ten rename itself The Dirty Dozen for the time being?
Bolek's Bets
After a perfect week of betting in my first week of betting (3-0, +$120), I dipped back into reality with a 3-4, -$35 week last week (including the Th & F games)
Last week: 3-4, -$35; YTD thru 9-17: 6-4, +$85
Already bet - Cincy -7 (-120) - easy victory. Little scare in this bet.
Central Florida +110 ML at BYU - UCF's defense - plus knowing I'll be bored and wanted something to follow - have me betting this Friday night tilt.
SD St +10.5 at Michigan - What may be touted as the Hoke Bowl, Michigan's defense isn't good enough to spot Hoke's former team this many points.
Notre Dame -6.5 at Pittsburgh - ND showed the type of team they can be last week against MSU when they don't have the turnover issues. I think it carries over here.
Western Michigan +13.5 at Illinois - I think Illinois will win, but I sense somewhat of a letdown. One thing to be weary of - Illinois was embarrassed by W. Michigan at Ford Field a few seasons ago, so revenge could be a factor.
Considering - Oklahoma -19.5, Alabama -11, Clemson -2.5
As always, follow my Twitter feed for updates if you'd like @brianbolek or www.twitter.com/brianbolek
Enjoy your weekends.
9/22/2011
Tom Brady is Sexy, Other NFL Observations & Week 3 Thoughts
Another week in the books, another week on the horizon. Some thoughts came from my Week 2 observations:
The Best D in New England is BraDy
New England's strong offensive start (36.5 points/game) has helped mask what definitely isn't one of the strong defenses that we are used to from the New England dynasty. There's no questioning Brady's awesomeness, and he's clearly the best weapon there is in the NFL. I'd worry about NE's chances to win it all if I were the Patriots though. As the Jets showed in the playoffs last year, if you make Brady look average, the Pats don't have the defense they once did to carry them to the next level. For now, I'm sticking with my Packers pick.
QBs should wear flags
The late hits being called on QBs is nothing new, but through the first two weeks, some of these calls are borderline ridiculous at best and shows me that the NFL should just take the next logical step that they are going with this pampering of QBs and put flags on them. That way, at least you could justify all the flags that always end up surrounding the quarterback on a weekly basis.
The constant flags make it impossible for defensive players to do what they were taught to do their entire careers - hit people.
Cam Newton - Too Much Love
I'm not saying he doesn't deserve some love, but all these media outlets are doing their best Katie Morgan impressions on Cam right now. I'm impressed with his completion rate (62.7%) but I won't be on board with him until he cuts back on interceptions (4 so far). Obviously, the season is young AND he is a rookie - so there is clearly room for improvement. I do think he will be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback throughout his career. But remember, his team is 0-2 and in his case (unlike Brady's), averaging 400+ yards a game is probably not gonna be the formula that wins them games.
Tony Romo - Too Much Hate
I bet you didn't know this stat about Romo - he has the league's highest passer rating in the 4th quarter since 2006 (source: check it here - first posted on ESPN). You'd never know based on the media's non-Cam Newton love for Romo. Much like LeBron, Romo's personality rubs people the wrong way and seems to bring on the majority of his haters.
While Romo only has 1 playoff win (to 3 losses in the 4 pro seasons that he ended the season as starter - last year not included), he has the same number of Super Bowl wins as Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Matt Ryan - who are three of the QBs considered to be among the elite of QBs in the NFL. Yet, you never hear about their inability to win in the playoffs or the big game - Rivers (3-4 record in 5 years of starting), Vick (2-3), Ryan (0-2 in 3 seasons).
I mention Super Bowl because that's what seems to be the only way people look at Romo's success. I think he is a top-10 quarterback in the league, but don't think he's top 5. Thus, I think people should stop looking at his career as a failure because of this.
I'll take him any day of the week on the Niners, especially with the guts he had to return against San Fran in Week 2 with his injured ribs and lungs.
Fools Gold
Last week: Tennessee easily covered the +6 against Baltimore; YTD: 2-0
(A quick explanation: Fools Gold is a game I highlight every week where a pointspread doesn't seem right and look to figure out why. In many cases, I will often bet against the bet that the general betting public will make)
Fools Gold Play of the Week: Arizona -3.5 at Seattle - Seattle couldn't have looked any more turdish in their back-to-back defeats to start the year against San Fran and Pittsburgh. Their offense has been offensive, and if they were playing any other team other than San Fran in Week 1, they would have lost that game by 24+. San Fran let Seattle stay in that game and only pulled away late because of Ted Ginn's returns.
Meanwhile, Arizona has played a few games down to the wire, holding on against Carolina before losing late in the game against the surprising 2-0 Redskins. Based on how each team has played, you'd think the line would be closer to Ariz -5 or 6 at least, but Seattle (no matter their personnel) plays well at home. The 12th man will get behind Seattle in their first home game of the season (and first home game since the upset against New Orleans last year) and Seattle wins an ugly game. Likely betting: Seattle +3.5
NFL Bets Last Week: 5-1-2, +$175 (Twitter shows my gambling updates the best - didn't bet KC last week, so check that out if interested @brianbolek)
YTD: 8-6-3 (lots of pushes this year so far, had none all of last year), -$6
More Week 3 picks:
Cin -3 (+105) vs. SF - already locked in. I see the Bengals winning this by a couple scores. They nearly pulled off the impressive feat of winning 2 road games to start the season despite low expectations. AJ Green has a performance that is a step below from Austin's the week before and Cincy wins by a couple scores.
NO -4 vs. Hou - Houston's first test this year. New Orleans' defense got back on track with a half dozen sacks of Cutler and will carry it over to this game. NO by 10. I think this one will be lower scoring than most people - might play the under as well.
KC +14.5 at SD - This is more of a system play than anything. Historically, teams who come off of two games where they get blown out will often cover in the third game. I don't have exact records, but just know this from gambling all these years and reading forums on the topic. Hoping to catch this around 15 or 15.5 but will be happy with 14.5.
Leans: Indy +10, Wash +5.5, Cle -2.5, Oak +3.5
Survivor pool pick for Week 3: Philadelphia (sticking with the home team system after considering New England)
Other picks will emerge from the heap of games I'm sure - likely some of the leans. To follow those, check out my twitter at www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in twitter-speak, @brianbolek.
Good luck to everyone's teams (fantasy, gambling and especially REAL teams!)
The Best D in New England is BraDy
New England's strong offensive start (36.5 points/game) has helped mask what definitely isn't one of the strong defenses that we are used to from the New England dynasty. There's no questioning Brady's awesomeness, and he's clearly the best weapon there is in the NFL. I'd worry about NE's chances to win it all if I were the Patriots though. As the Jets showed in the playoffs last year, if you make Brady look average, the Pats don't have the defense they once did to carry them to the next level. For now, I'm sticking with my Packers pick.
QBs should wear flags
The late hits being called on QBs is nothing new, but through the first two weeks, some of these calls are borderline ridiculous at best and shows me that the NFL should just take the next logical step that they are going with this pampering of QBs and put flags on them. That way, at least you could justify all the flags that always end up surrounding the quarterback on a weekly basis.
The constant flags make it impossible for defensive players to do what they were taught to do their entire careers - hit people.
Cam Newton - Too Much Love
I'm not saying he doesn't deserve some love, but all these media outlets are doing their best Katie Morgan impressions on Cam right now. I'm impressed with his completion rate (62.7%) but I won't be on board with him until he cuts back on interceptions (4 so far). Obviously, the season is young AND he is a rookie - so there is clearly room for improvement. I do think he will be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback throughout his career. But remember, his team is 0-2 and in his case (unlike Brady's), averaging 400+ yards a game is probably not gonna be the formula that wins them games.
Tony Romo - Too Much Hate
I bet you didn't know this stat about Romo - he has the league's highest passer rating in the 4th quarter since 2006 (source: check it here - first posted on ESPN). You'd never know based on the media's non-Cam Newton love for Romo. Much like LeBron, Romo's personality rubs people the wrong way and seems to bring on the majority of his haters.
While Romo only has 1 playoff win (to 3 losses in the 4 pro seasons that he ended the season as starter - last year not included), he has the same number of Super Bowl wins as Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Matt Ryan - who are three of the QBs considered to be among the elite of QBs in the NFL. Yet, you never hear about their inability to win in the playoffs or the big game - Rivers (3-4 record in 5 years of starting), Vick (2-3), Ryan (0-2 in 3 seasons).
I mention Super Bowl because that's what seems to be the only way people look at Romo's success. I think he is a top-10 quarterback in the league, but don't think he's top 5. Thus, I think people should stop looking at his career as a failure because of this.
I'll take him any day of the week on the Niners, especially with the guts he had to return against San Fran in Week 2 with his injured ribs and lungs.
Fools Gold
Last week: Tennessee easily covered the +6 against Baltimore; YTD: 2-0
(A quick explanation: Fools Gold is a game I highlight every week where a pointspread doesn't seem right and look to figure out why. In many cases, I will often bet against the bet that the general betting public will make)
Fools Gold Play of the Week: Arizona -3.5 at Seattle - Seattle couldn't have looked any more turdish in their back-to-back defeats to start the year against San Fran and Pittsburgh. Their offense has been offensive, and if they were playing any other team other than San Fran in Week 1, they would have lost that game by 24+. San Fran let Seattle stay in that game and only pulled away late because of Ted Ginn's returns.
Meanwhile, Arizona has played a few games down to the wire, holding on against Carolina before losing late in the game against the surprising 2-0 Redskins. Based on how each team has played, you'd think the line would be closer to Ariz -5 or 6 at least, but Seattle (no matter their personnel) plays well at home. The 12th man will get behind Seattle in their first home game of the season (and first home game since the upset against New Orleans last year) and Seattle wins an ugly game. Likely betting: Seattle +3.5
NFL Bets Last Week: 5-1-2, +$175 (Twitter shows my gambling updates the best - didn't bet KC last week, so check that out if interested @brianbolek)
YTD: 8-6-3 (lots of pushes this year so far, had none all of last year), -$6
More Week 3 picks:
Cin -3 (+105) vs. SF - already locked in. I see the Bengals winning this by a couple scores. They nearly pulled off the impressive feat of winning 2 road games to start the season despite low expectations. AJ Green has a performance that is a step below from Austin's the week before and Cincy wins by a couple scores.
NO -4 vs. Hou - Houston's first test this year. New Orleans' defense got back on track with a half dozen sacks of Cutler and will carry it over to this game. NO by 10. I think this one will be lower scoring than most people - might play the under as well.
KC +14.5 at SD - This is more of a system play than anything. Historically, teams who come off of two games where they get blown out will often cover in the third game. I don't have exact records, but just know this from gambling all these years and reading forums on the topic. Hoping to catch this around 15 or 15.5 but will be happy with 14.5.
Leans: Indy +10, Wash +5.5, Cle -2.5, Oak +3.5
Survivor pool pick for Week 3: Philadelphia (sticking with the home team system after considering New England)
Other picks will emerge from the heap of games I'm sure - likely some of the leans. To follow those, check out my twitter at www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in twitter-speak, @brianbolek.
Good luck to everyone's teams (fantasy, gambling and especially REAL teams!)
9/21/2011
Chi-town Date of Mind (Chapter 5)
The date went well.
The end.
Really, that's all I have to say....it went well!
The girl is awesome and the date (hamburger joint and a movie) went well. I think I mentioned the date went well, right?
Dating sites do work. Best choice I've made this year.
These abstract blogs are a lot easier to write I must say!
If you wanna know more about it, I'd rather share in person. Figured I'd let all B-Bo Knows Online Dating Blog readers know of the result.
Ok, this time for real.....The End.
The end.
Really, that's all I have to say....it went well!
The girl is awesome and the date (hamburger joint and a movie) went well. I think I mentioned the date went well, right?
Dating sites do work. Best choice I've made this year.
These abstract blogs are a lot easier to write I must say!
If you wanna know more about it, I'd rather share in person. Figured I'd let all B-Bo Knows Online Dating Blog readers know of the result.
Ok, this time for real.....The End.
9/19/2011
I Love Being Right - Modesty at its Worst
Of course, everyone loves being right. Who wouldn't? But there are certain aspects of life where being right gives us more satisfaction than in others.
For me, of course, it is in the area of gambling - particulaly sports betting. The feeling of a winning bet is hard to describe to someone who hasn't placed and won a bet. I dare not compare it to sex because....well.....yeah.
But even a subset within gambling that gives me the most satisfaction are the particular bets that you know that most people aren't on. If you've read my week 1 and 2 previews of NFL, you see a section titled "Fool's Gold", which highlights a game each week where a spread seems too good to be true, a bet that just seems like it's begging for action on one side.
These are the bets that make me proud to be a gambler. Like I've said before, these sucker bets, also known in the gambling community as "square bets", are not always wrong. Last week's NE game against Miami is the perfect example of this - a game I lost money on.
However, today had some interesting lines that screamed "BET ME!!!", which in Gamblish means "bet the other side". Baltimore was example 1 of this - over 85% of people in Yahoo pick'em odds leagues selected them. The more I thought about it, the easier it was for me to bet Tennessee.
Second BET ME was actually one where I bet into the side where I shouldn't have - Dallas laying (spotting) three points at San Fran. Yes, I bet against my team - but make no mistake, as my friend Tim can attest to, I was rooting hard for San Fran to win this game. I didn't think the bet was square until I saw that all 11 people in our pick'em league picked Dallas. For the bet's sake (not for my fandom's sake), Dallas came back and made the game a non-bet with the 3 point win.
Third BET ME was Philly laying 2.5 points against Atlanta, who got spanked by Chicago in Week 1. I think many people had short memories on Atlanta - who are a dominant home team in the Matty Ryan era - losing only 2 games that he has started in the Georgia Dome since he became their franchise QB. Yeah, I come off pompous by saying I saw Atlanta covering a mile away, because there was severe doubt on their cover here (it took till the last minutes for Atl to seal the deal).
You'd think with all of this hot shit talk on my part that I did awesome in the pick'em league, but quite the opposite. My picks against the spread were 4-9-2 (2-0-1 in the above games, 2-9-1 in the others). However, as I was getting to a few paragraphs ago before getting into specific bets, there are certain bets that you want to win more than others, just so you can tell people, "I was right!"
And despite the piss-poor record in the pick'em league, I actually ended up being 5-1-1 with my bets.
Winning bets were: Ten +6; Ind/Cle Over 39 (I tailed a bet that a respected gambler that I read a lot about was making here); Pitt -14; Atl +2.5 and Atlanta Over 23.5 team points.
Losing bet was: Wash -3.5
Push was: Dallas -3
I make my initial reads in a blog on Thursday or Friday but usually don't lock my bets in until Saturday night or Sunday morning. This week, I was unsure until Sunday morning on my final plan of attack as far as bets go. I try updating my bets on my Twitter, if you ever care to follow it (www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in Twitter language - @brianbolek). This is where you will find my bets for the day as I make them.
Monday night - I might not bet, but let's be serious. I'd lean St Louis if I hear of Jackson being healthy, but will likely lean in the direction of the Under 44 (or so) for that game.
My goal for the Fool's Bet column throughout the 17 weeks is a 12-5 or better record. I will likely bet it every week and hope that this goal - if achieved - makes me a profit.
Yes, I know I'm being an asshole with this blog here, but I don't care. One thing about me that you can't discredit is that I will put my money where my mouth is, so if you feel like I am on the wrong side of a bet, I am usually up for making side bets in addition to my 4-5 games of betting.
I hope I'm right more often, especially at clips like this. But realistically, you have to expect no more than a 53-55% winning percentage at best over a long span of betting. There will be those weeks where you lose 75%-100% of your bets, but always gotta keep your head even keel when betting.
Bet against some of these future sucker bets at your own risk! I'm here to help you out and make sure you don't overlook certain aspects of games that go into making point spreads what they are.
For me, of course, it is in the area of gambling - particulaly sports betting. The feeling of a winning bet is hard to describe to someone who hasn't placed and won a bet. I dare not compare it to sex because....well.....yeah.
But even a subset within gambling that gives me the most satisfaction are the particular bets that you know that most people aren't on. If you've read my week 1 and 2 previews of NFL, you see a section titled "Fool's Gold", which highlights a game each week where a spread seems too good to be true, a bet that just seems like it's begging for action on one side.
These are the bets that make me proud to be a gambler. Like I've said before, these sucker bets, also known in the gambling community as "square bets", are not always wrong. Last week's NE game against Miami is the perfect example of this - a game I lost money on.
However, today had some interesting lines that screamed "BET ME!!!", which in Gamblish means "bet the other side". Baltimore was example 1 of this - over 85% of people in Yahoo pick'em odds leagues selected them. The more I thought about it, the easier it was for me to bet Tennessee.
Second BET ME was actually one where I bet into the side where I shouldn't have - Dallas laying (spotting) three points at San Fran. Yes, I bet against my team - but make no mistake, as my friend Tim can attest to, I was rooting hard for San Fran to win this game. I didn't think the bet was square until I saw that all 11 people in our pick'em league picked Dallas. For the bet's sake (not for my fandom's sake), Dallas came back and made the game a non-bet with the 3 point win.
Third BET ME was Philly laying 2.5 points against Atlanta, who got spanked by Chicago in Week 1. I think many people had short memories on Atlanta - who are a dominant home team in the Matty Ryan era - losing only 2 games that he has started in the Georgia Dome since he became their franchise QB. Yeah, I come off pompous by saying I saw Atlanta covering a mile away, because there was severe doubt on their cover here (it took till the last minutes for Atl to seal the deal).
You'd think with all of this hot shit talk on my part that I did awesome in the pick'em league, but quite the opposite. My picks against the spread were 4-9-2 (2-0-1 in the above games, 2-9-1 in the others). However, as I was getting to a few paragraphs ago before getting into specific bets, there are certain bets that you want to win more than others, just so you can tell people, "I was right!"
And despite the piss-poor record in the pick'em league, I actually ended up being 5-1-1 with my bets.
Winning bets were: Ten +6; Ind/Cle Over 39 (I tailed a bet that a respected gambler that I read a lot about was making here); Pitt -14; Atl +2.5 and Atlanta Over 23.5 team points.
Losing bet was: Wash -3.5
Push was: Dallas -3
I make my initial reads in a blog on Thursday or Friday but usually don't lock my bets in until Saturday night or Sunday morning. This week, I was unsure until Sunday morning on my final plan of attack as far as bets go. I try updating my bets on my Twitter, if you ever care to follow it (www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in Twitter language - @brianbolek). This is where you will find my bets for the day as I make them.
Monday night - I might not bet, but let's be serious. I'd lean St Louis if I hear of Jackson being healthy, but will likely lean in the direction of the Under 44 (or so) for that game.
My goal for the Fool's Bet column throughout the 17 weeks is a 12-5 or better record. I will likely bet it every week and hope that this goal - if achieved - makes me a profit.
Yes, I know I'm being an asshole with this blog here, but I don't care. One thing about me that you can't discredit is that I will put my money where my mouth is, so if you feel like I am on the wrong side of a bet, I am usually up for making side bets in addition to my 4-5 games of betting.
I hope I'm right more often, especially at clips like this. But realistically, you have to expect no more than a 53-55% winning percentage at best over a long span of betting. There will be those weeks where you lose 75%-100% of your bets, but always gotta keep your head even keel when betting.
Bet against some of these future sucker bets at your own risk! I'm here to help you out and make sure you don't overlook certain aspects of games that go into making point spreads what they are.
9/17/2011
Lovie/Hate Relationship: The Dissection of Why Bears Fans Hate The Coach (and week 3 college picks)
With the start of NFL season in Chicago comes the annual "Fire Lovie Smith" chants from many fans.
But why?
Is it something to do with his personality, which is the antithesis of everything that the most beloved coach in Bears history of the past 30 years (DAAAAA COACH) represented?
Is it something to do with his in-game adjustments or use of challenges?
Is it just the nature of sports, when a team's fan base calls for a coach's head whenever they go a decent amount of time without a championship?
It couldn't have anything to do with race, could it?
It has to be one of these things, because it couldn't be about his record as a coach. Entering the 2011 season, Lovie sported a 63-49 record as the Bears coach in his 7 years at the helm. In this span, Lovie has won over half of the division championships in the division (4), made two conference championship games and one Super Bowl.
In the decade preceding Lovie's reign as head coach, the Bears mainly suffered through the Dick Jauron (1999-2003) and Dave Wannstedt (1993-1998) eras. In these 11 seasons, the Bears went to the playoffs twice, combining to go 75-101 between the two coaches.
I hear all the complaining about Lovie, but as a Niners fan, I have absolutely no sympathy for Bears fans. From 2004-2010, the Niners sport this amazing run of dominance:
2004: 2-14
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9 (hey now! Let's not overachieve here!)
2007: 5-11 (that's more like it)
2008: 7-9
2009: 8-8
2010: 6-10
For those of you who can do math, that's a record of 39-73. In that time, we won exactly 0 conference championships, 0 division championships, 0 playoff games (hard to do when you make the playoffs ZERO times in that span) and are currently on our 4th coach since Lovie started. So please excuse me if I find this Lovie talk to be a tad annoying.
Does any Bears fan wanna trade for the Niners past 7 years in a straight-up deal? I'll gladly take what you have: a boring coach who has won 4 divisions for a team who has had 4 coaches and no playoff appearances.
I think a lot of Lovie's problem is that he is not Ditka and will always be compared to him. Lovie would need to win more than one Super Bowl for people to even consider him better than Ditka. The 1985 season will always be held up on a pedestal in the pantheon of sports seasons (in Chicago and nationwide), so Lovie (and any other future Bears coach) will never be able to escape that shadow.
I hope that the day Lovie is let go (or heaven forbid, RETIRES from the coaching profession as a Bears coach), that Bears fans can at least give the guy some credit for coaching many teams that not a whole lot of people expected much from and led them to success more often than not.
Because when they hire Dick Jauron or Dave Wannstedt Jr. (I hope Wannstedt didn't name a kid after himself, this is more for example's sake) to lead the team afterwards, you might be in for some cold winters as a Bears fan.
Note: If I don't respond to potential/inevitable criticism of this blog (whether it be on fb comments or in here), it's not that I am dismissing your comments. It's just that I don't know how else I could state my case beyond the above material that I could say any differently.
Week 3 college picks
I've made a few picks this week so far, going 1-1 between LSU -3.5 and Boise's first half line (+$20 combined). These two games bring my college season record to 4-1, +$140.
Notre Dame -5 (vs. Mich St) - $55 to win $50
Nebraska -17 (vs. Washington) - $55 to win $50
Illinois -2 (vs. Arizona St) - $55 to win $50
I may make more bets throughout the day. I'll try keeping them updated- may start updating my bets on my Twitter account (twitter.com/brianbolek - follow me @brianbolek).
Have a good day everyone. Make your Saturdays enjoyable and prosperous.
But why?
Is it something to do with his personality, which is the antithesis of everything that the most beloved coach in Bears history of the past 30 years (DAAAAA COACH) represented?
Is it something to do with his in-game adjustments or use of challenges?
Is it just the nature of sports, when a team's fan base calls for a coach's head whenever they go a decent amount of time without a championship?
It couldn't have anything to do with race, could it?
It has to be one of these things, because it couldn't be about his record as a coach. Entering the 2011 season, Lovie sported a 63-49 record as the Bears coach in his 7 years at the helm. In this span, Lovie has won over half of the division championships in the division (4), made two conference championship games and one Super Bowl.
In the decade preceding Lovie's reign as head coach, the Bears mainly suffered through the Dick Jauron (1999-2003) and Dave Wannstedt (1993-1998) eras. In these 11 seasons, the Bears went to the playoffs twice, combining to go 75-101 between the two coaches.
I hear all the complaining about Lovie, but as a Niners fan, I have absolutely no sympathy for Bears fans. From 2004-2010, the Niners sport this amazing run of dominance:
2004: 2-14
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9 (hey now! Let's not overachieve here!)
2007: 5-11 (that's more like it)
2008: 7-9
2009: 8-8
2010: 6-10
For those of you who can do math, that's a record of 39-73. In that time, we won exactly 0 conference championships, 0 division championships, 0 playoff games (hard to do when you make the playoffs ZERO times in that span) and are currently on our 4th coach since Lovie started. So please excuse me if I find this Lovie talk to be a tad annoying.
Does any Bears fan wanna trade for the Niners past 7 years in a straight-up deal? I'll gladly take what you have: a boring coach who has won 4 divisions for a team who has had 4 coaches and no playoff appearances.
I think a lot of Lovie's problem is that he is not Ditka and will always be compared to him. Lovie would need to win more than one Super Bowl for people to even consider him better than Ditka. The 1985 season will always be held up on a pedestal in the pantheon of sports seasons (in Chicago and nationwide), so Lovie (and any other future Bears coach) will never be able to escape that shadow.
I hope that the day Lovie is let go (or heaven forbid, RETIRES from the coaching profession as a Bears coach), that Bears fans can at least give the guy some credit for coaching many teams that not a whole lot of people expected much from and led them to success more often than not.
Because when they hire Dick Jauron or Dave Wannstedt Jr. (I hope Wannstedt didn't name a kid after himself, this is more for example's sake) to lead the team afterwards, you might be in for some cold winters as a Bears fan.
Note: If I don't respond to potential/inevitable criticism of this blog (whether it be on fb comments or in here), it's not that I am dismissing your comments. It's just that I don't know how else I could state my case beyond the above material that I could say any differently.
Week 3 college picks
I've made a few picks this week so far, going 1-1 between LSU -3.5 and Boise's first half line (+$20 combined). These two games bring my college season record to 4-1, +$140.
Notre Dame -5 (vs. Mich St) - $55 to win $50
Nebraska -17 (vs. Washington) - $55 to win $50
Illinois -2 (vs. Arizona St) - $55 to win $50
I may make more bets throughout the day. I'll try keeping them updated- may start updating my bets on my Twitter account (twitter.com/brianbolek - follow me @brianbolek).
Have a good day everyone. Make your Saturdays enjoyable and prosperous.
9/15/2011
Footballs Deep: NFL trends and Week 2 thoughts
The Death of the Running Back
Welcome to Thursday night. We are officially a week removed from the exciting start to the NFL season, where we saw the duel between Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Who knew that the slinging would continue into the Monday night games, particularly in a matchup featuring Tom Brady and Chad Henne, who somehow combined for more yards than Rodgers and Brees? Many games on Sunday also featured some high passing yardage totals, with Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick being among the unexpected leaders in the clubhouse.
The trend of high passing yardage is nothing new, but the number of guys in Week 1 who performed well, especially by the unknowns, makes me believe that having a top quality running back isn't all that important anymore. Sure, it helps with play actions and keeping some defenses honest.
But look at how many teams line up in shotgun formation on a regular basis, especially with the top quarterbacks. Even when teams know that these guys are going to pass, defenses can do nothing to stop it. I think the death of the running back is its prime right now.
Yes, yes - there's still elite running backs in the league. But how many of them are on teams that are considered the favorites to win the Super Bowl?
Fool's Gold Bet of the Week
Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee: From what I saw of the game, which was very limited amount, the Titans seemed to struggle to move the ball much against the Jaguars - a team not considered to epitomize great defense. You'd think that playing a team like the Ravens, a team that just schooled its rival Pittsburgh 35-7, would warrant a higher line that 5.5 point home dogs as a result. With this line, Vegas is telling me that they expect the Ravens to have somewhat of a letdown (especially off of the rivalry angle), while also saying that the Titans might not be as bad as they looked in Week 1. I think Chris Johnson is able to get on track this week. The Titans almost won the opener despite CJ's struggles to get going, so if he's able to get one or two big runs like he's accustomed to, that will be the difference in keeping this game close. (Likely betting Tennessee +5.5)
Fool's Gold YTD: 1-0 (record based on betting against the trend - Last week's pick (Washington) easily covered). This is a record of betting against the spread, not straight-up.
Fantasy Football Blurb
I wrote a blog about how nobody really cares about your fantasy football team if they're not asking about it, so since you're not asking, I won't tell you. I will mention that I did lose all of my big money league games, but I refuse to panic and think my season is over. It obviously makes winning week 2 more important than normal, but the season is a grind and needs to be treated as such.
Lots of times, teams who lose week 1 start to panic and make irrational moves based on one week's worth of data. If you know owners like that in your leagues, my suggestion is to exploit these owners. Try getting Blount or CJ from some panicked owner and then reap the rewards later. Just don't do it in any of my leagues.
Week 2 Leans/Bets
Week 1 started off on a terrible foot, with the Under being destroyed in the opening game of the year. In fact, Overs went 12-3-1 in NFL's first week. Much of that is credited to the trend I mentioned at the top of the blog - Quarterbacks Gone Wild.
Two unlisted bets from Monday - I lost $60 total on Monday (1-1), $55 Sunday (2-3-1) and $66 (0-1) on Thursday - so a rough start to the NFL (3-5-1, -$181). Luckily, I won all 3 of my college bets on Saturday (+$120) to negate much of that damage.
Week 2 is a lot murkier for me at this point, but here's some games I'm looking to bet:
Ten +5.5 vs Baltimore
KC +7.5 at Detroit
Pitt -14 vs. Seattle or the Under 40
Dallas -3 at San Fran
Atlanta +1.5 vs Phil
I will post final bets on Sunday.
Survivor pool pick. I used San Diego last week. Week 2 pick: Pittsburgh.
Good luck in your bets, fantasy leagues, and most importantly, to the actual team that you root for.
Welcome to Thursday night. We are officially a week removed from the exciting start to the NFL season, where we saw the duel between Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Who knew that the slinging would continue into the Monday night games, particularly in a matchup featuring Tom Brady and Chad Henne, who somehow combined for more yards than Rodgers and Brees? Many games on Sunday also featured some high passing yardage totals, with Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick being among the unexpected leaders in the clubhouse.
The trend of high passing yardage is nothing new, but the number of guys in Week 1 who performed well, especially by the unknowns, makes me believe that having a top quality running back isn't all that important anymore. Sure, it helps with play actions and keeping some defenses honest.
But look at how many teams line up in shotgun formation on a regular basis, especially with the top quarterbacks. Even when teams know that these guys are going to pass, defenses can do nothing to stop it. I think the death of the running back is its prime right now.
Yes, yes - there's still elite running backs in the league. But how many of them are on teams that are considered the favorites to win the Super Bowl?
Fool's Gold Bet of the Week
Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee: From what I saw of the game, which was very limited amount, the Titans seemed to struggle to move the ball much against the Jaguars - a team not considered to epitomize great defense. You'd think that playing a team like the Ravens, a team that just schooled its rival Pittsburgh 35-7, would warrant a higher line that 5.5 point home dogs as a result. With this line, Vegas is telling me that they expect the Ravens to have somewhat of a letdown (especially off of the rivalry angle), while also saying that the Titans might not be as bad as they looked in Week 1. I think Chris Johnson is able to get on track this week. The Titans almost won the opener despite CJ's struggles to get going, so if he's able to get one or two big runs like he's accustomed to, that will be the difference in keeping this game close. (Likely betting Tennessee +5.5)
Fool's Gold YTD: 1-0 (record based on betting against the trend - Last week's pick (Washington) easily covered). This is a record of betting against the spread, not straight-up.
Fantasy Football Blurb
I wrote a blog about how nobody really cares about your fantasy football team if they're not asking about it, so since you're not asking, I won't tell you. I will mention that I did lose all of my big money league games, but I refuse to panic and think my season is over. It obviously makes winning week 2 more important than normal, but the season is a grind and needs to be treated as such.
Lots of times, teams who lose week 1 start to panic and make irrational moves based on one week's worth of data. If you know owners like that in your leagues, my suggestion is to exploit these owners. Try getting Blount or CJ from some panicked owner and then reap the rewards later. Just don't do it in any of my leagues.
Week 2 Leans/Bets
Week 1 started off on a terrible foot, with the Under being destroyed in the opening game of the year. In fact, Overs went 12-3-1 in NFL's first week. Much of that is credited to the trend I mentioned at the top of the blog - Quarterbacks Gone Wild.
Two unlisted bets from Monday - I lost $60 total on Monday (1-1), $55 Sunday (2-3-1) and $66 (0-1) on Thursday - so a rough start to the NFL (3-5-1, -$181). Luckily, I won all 3 of my college bets on Saturday (+$120) to negate much of that damage.
Week 2 is a lot murkier for me at this point, but here's some games I'm looking to bet:
Ten +5.5 vs Baltimore
KC +7.5 at Detroit
Pitt -14 vs. Seattle or the Under 40
Dallas -3 at San Fran
Atlanta +1.5 vs Phil
I will post final bets on Sunday.
Survivor pool pick. I used San Diego last week. Week 2 pick: Pittsburgh.
Good luck in your bets, fantasy leagues, and most importantly, to the actual team that you root for.
9/12/2011
Counting My Chickens (Chapter 4)
The past two weeks, I've received more response in person about my blogs than any other time in the past year that I've written a blog. I never would have guessed that people would this much of a crap about my dating life and where the online dating world takes me. The step-by-step stuff that I've shared seems to make the story more relate-able to everyone.
The fact that the 3 dating blogs have all reached top 5 blog status - including the last one which currently has 118 views (a record for this blog) - proves to me the level of interest that everyone has with it. It's been fun writing the blogs so far. Even more fun to have people come up to me and tell me how much they have loved the stories so far.
Another thing I didn't account for, however, is how vulnerable I make myself when I share my life with the hundreds of people I know on Facebook. Don't get me wrong - I love sharing some stories of my life with everyone. But this past week, I may have been jumping the gun with things when it comes to the dating thing.
"Bad News Never Had Good Timing"
So it turns out that there will not be a second date. An online discussion Sunday night with the girl of the first date had her opening up to me and saying that she'd just like to be friends - which isn't all that new of a phrase to me - and no, I'm not looking for sympathy, just being honest in that I've heard that a lot, especially lately.
And I have no ill-will towards anyone who says it, including this case. I just don't care for the people who say that and then never bother maintaining their end of "Let's Just Be Friends". It's easy to figure those out. Luckily, some of the people who I've heard say that have held up their end of the bargain.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed - because I am. Hell, it seemed to be the only thing I spoke about to people the past week. The people who asked me about my chances, I tried stressing that I am cautiously optimistic. That was no lie, because I knew there was no guarantees after the first date.
And please, no ill will towards Date-1.
"On to the Next One"
So after I've told dozens of people in person and 100s of readers about what was to come of my week this week with a second date that wasn't, I find myself with my pants around my ankles somewhat. I know that there was a chance of things not working out when starting this blog, but I felt (and still feel) compelled to share some of this stories. Especially since people seem to respond to it so well.
I went back on the site and messaged a few new possibilities. I'll go back to my strategy of messaging new people that I would like to meet and hope that I can get another date out of it.
Depending on results and stories, I may update this segment weekly or a couple times a week. I hope to have more success stories to share with you. Although there is a part of me that may not want to build these things up in such a public forum, but rather do it in private conversations with people.
But one thing this guy won't do is quit. I did meet a cool girl off of the site so far and wouldn't mind at this point if she lived up to her "Let's Be Friends" thing - so the site definitely is not a total loss.
Time to march on and meet the next girl.
The fact that the 3 dating blogs have all reached top 5 blog status - including the last one which currently has 118 views (a record for this blog) - proves to me the level of interest that everyone has with it. It's been fun writing the blogs so far. Even more fun to have people come up to me and tell me how much they have loved the stories so far.
Another thing I didn't account for, however, is how vulnerable I make myself when I share my life with the hundreds of people I know on Facebook. Don't get me wrong - I love sharing some stories of my life with everyone. But this past week, I may have been jumping the gun with things when it comes to the dating thing.
"Bad News Never Had Good Timing"
So it turns out that there will not be a second date. An online discussion Sunday night with the girl of the first date had her opening up to me and saying that she'd just like to be friends - which isn't all that new of a phrase to me - and no, I'm not looking for sympathy, just being honest in that I've heard that a lot, especially lately.
And I have no ill-will towards anyone who says it, including this case. I just don't care for the people who say that and then never bother maintaining their end of "Let's Just Be Friends". It's easy to figure those out. Luckily, some of the people who I've heard say that have held up their end of the bargain.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed - because I am. Hell, it seemed to be the only thing I spoke about to people the past week. The people who asked me about my chances, I tried stressing that I am cautiously optimistic. That was no lie, because I knew there was no guarantees after the first date.
And please, no ill will towards Date-1.
"On to the Next One"
So after I've told dozens of people in person and 100s of readers about what was to come of my week this week with a second date that wasn't, I find myself with my pants around my ankles somewhat. I know that there was a chance of things not working out when starting this blog, but I felt (and still feel) compelled to share some of this stories. Especially since people seem to respond to it so well.
I went back on the site and messaged a few new possibilities. I'll go back to my strategy of messaging new people that I would like to meet and hope that I can get another date out of it.
Depending on results and stories, I may update this segment weekly or a couple times a week. I hope to have more success stories to share with you. Although there is a part of me that may not want to build these things up in such a public forum, but rather do it in private conversations with people.
But one thing this guy won't do is quit. I did meet a cool girl off of the site so far and wouldn't mind at this point if she lived up to her "Let's Be Friends" thing - so the site definitely is not a total loss.
Time to march on and meet the next girl.
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