Reheat: NBA Preview 2012

With such a short offseason compared to other major sports, it never feels like NBA is out of season.

The freshest things in mind are the ones I'll touch upon. I have friends who I'd consider bigger basketball junkies than me - I'll give you a simpleton's point of view with this past offseason.

The Dwight Stuff

It only took what seemed liked decades, but Dwight Howard finally got his wishes to leave Orlando when his old team traded him to the Lakers. Howard joins veteran Steve Nash as the big acquisitions to the Lakers, who are gearing up for at least one more Kobe title run before he hangs it up in a few years. Anyone who thought the Lakers were not the favorites to land Howard all along (rumors had him going to the Nets as they kick off their inaugural season in Brooklyn). I believe the Lakers will make it far, but I believe their championship will have to wait a year.

Agony of the Heat

Speaking of champions, America's least favorite team - ok, maybe more so Chicago area's least favorite team - is the reigning NBA champion. They added sharpshooting veteran Ray Allen to the mix - a great move in my opinion. I foresee a lot of Lebron kick-outs to a wide open Allen for three this season. With the championship taste still in their mouths, I expect the champs to repeat en route to what should be a dynasty that features at least 4-5 championships (assuming LeBron stays there and doesn't opt out in a couple years).

Thunder Struck

Just a few days ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded away James Harden to the Houston Rockets, with the key player coming to the Thunder being Kevin Martin. A lot of people are wondering why the Thunder would make such a move, but apparently Harden turned down a contract with them (wasn't a max contract). With the trade, he can make about 50% more over the life of the contract (signing a max deal w/ Houston over the deal the Thunder offered) if I've read everything right. So he goes from a championship caliber team to a rebuilding one - the classic "Should I chase money or rings?" argument. He can't convince me or anyone else that he thinks he'll even come close to sniffing a conference finals, yet alone contend for a title, in the next 3-4 years, where with OKC, he's likely guaranteed a few more title appearances if he stays. More power to him for taking the money. We all say we'd go for the ring if we were these guys, but WE aren't talented basketball players capable of being in a position to make these choices. Good luck Harden - you'll need it.

Flop It Like It's Hot

One of the biggest rule changes that took place over the offseason was the NBA instituting a fine system for players who attempt to flop on fouls in their attempt to eliminate it from the game. I forgot what journalist said it (I think it was Bomani Jones) who said this will likely create a class in the NBA of those who can afford to flop and those who can't. Players can be fined up to 30K if they are caught flopping up to five times. A guy making six figures won't chance flopping that many times. Should be interesting to see (a) how often this gets enforced and (b) who are guys who get hit with the most fines.

Predictions By Division (in predicted order) - numbers represent their predicted seed in playoffs

Eastern Conference

Atlantic: 2. Boston, 5. Philly, 7. Brooklyn, New York, Toronto

Central: 3. Indiana, 6. Chicago, 8.  Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit

Southeast: 1. Miami, 4. Atlanta, Washington, Orlando, Charlotte

Notes: Yes, probably a little shocked to see Cleveland in the playoffs. I was initially surprised to put them there, but then remembered several playoff teams from last year (New York and Orlando) who I eliminated from consideration. Kyrie should take the next step and show why Cleveland picked him number 1.

Otherwise, my picks are pretty bland. I picked all of the favorites to win their respective divisions here. The most likely division for a long-shot winner would probably be the Atlantic. The Heat should clinch the Southeast title by the end of March, if not sooner. If Rose can return and shake off the rust quick, I could see the Bulls finishing top 2 or 3 in the conference. My projection is that if he does return, the rust will take a while to shake.

Western Conference

Northwest: 2. Denver, 3. Oklahoma City, 7. Utah, Minnesota, Portland

Pacific: 1. LA Lakers, 6. LA Clippers, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento

Southwest: 4. Memphis, 5. San Antonio, 8. Dallas, Houston, New Orleans

Notes: I threw a curveball and have Denver and Memphis as division winners. I think I'm buying into Denver based on Hollinger's projection more so than my own analysis. I also think it could take some time for the Thunder to get used to playing without Harden. The Lakers should roll this division but will likely save their energy for the playoffs, so 56/57 wins should be expected as opposed to 60+.

Eastern Playoffs Round 1: Miami over Cleveland, Boston over Brooklyn, Chicago over Indiana, Atlanta over Philly

Western Playoffs Round 1: Lakers over Dallas, Denver over Utah, OKC over Clips, San Antonio over Memphis

EP Round 2: Miami over Atlanta, Boston over Chicago

WP Round 2: Lakers over Spurs, OKC over Denver

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Boston

Western Conference Finals: Lakers over OKC

Finals: Miami over LA in 6

NBA MVP: LBJ.......Sleeper: Kyrie Irving 

NBA 6th Man:  Manu Ginobili. San Antonio.....Sleeper: I don't know this category well enough to predict it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC.....Sleeper: Andre Iguodala - Denver

Coach of the Year: George Karl, Denver....Sleeper: Larry Drew, Atlanta

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans

Most Improved Player: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland

Random prop questions:

1. Will anyone get flop fines up until/past the fifth flop? No
2. Will the Bobcats set an NBA record for losses in a season? No, but barely
3. Return timeline for Derrick Rose - All-Star Break (Before or After): After
4. Biggest Longshot w/ a title hope: Denver at 50/1
5. Biggest Favorite w/ little title hope: Chicago at 16/1 (No Rose, No Shot)

Bets made before season: Denver to win Northwest division +540 (50/270); Denver Over 51.5 wins (130/100)

B List: Agony of the Heat (List 6)

This LBJ didn't make any promises about Vietnam. Instead, the basketball version declared that he would win "not 5, not 6, not 7..." NBA titles. In their own ways, both Lyndon Johnson & LeBron James would find ways to vilify themselves with their own words.

One down, "not 6" to go for LBJ Jr. to live up to his words. His team did what many thought they were capable of, but were unlikely to do, at least this time around against a talented Oklahoma City Thunder squad that features some of the best collection of young talent that the NBA has seen in quite some time.

I thought the Heat would win based on their experience from last year, but I didn't think they would completely dismantle the Thunder. Outside of a poor second half in Game 1 and poor 1st quarter in Game 4, the Heat destroyed the Thunder on both ends of the floor. LeBron showed what happens when the most talented player in the NBA puts forth maximum effort to achieve his goal. It's a scary thought for NBA teams who have to face him in the next 6-7 years.

Below are 7 (not 5, not 6) thoughts concerning the Heat as to where they stand now and looking forward to what could be a prolonged run of championships for the most hated squad in the NBA.

7. The Eastern Conference looks like a cakewalk for the foreseeable future. I know most Bulls fans would disagree, but I think last year was their best chance in the Miami/LeBron era to make it to the Finals. Outside of Rose, the Bulls have no legit scorer that can create his own shot. Over the course of history, the NBA has shown itself to be a sport where you need at least 2 of the top 10/20 talents on a team to win titles.  If they don't land a big fish like Dwight Howard, I don't think they can reasonably beat the Heat in the near future. I think the Bulls have maximized their talents in each of the last two regular seasons.  Even if Rose comes back mid-season next year, I don't think he'll be all that sharp.

The Pacers are a team on the rise, but outside of Granger, they don't have a complimentary superstar (although Roy Hibbert is developing into a solid player). The Celtics' realistic window for title shots was 2008-2010. The Knicks may have the best shot of rising from the ashes outside of these teams in the East, but that may be a stretch.

If you look at it objectively, it could be easy to see the Heat winning the East for the next 4-5 years if the teams above don't make major roster moves.

6. They should consider moving Dwyane Wade.  I read this online earlier, and it made some sense. With how reckless and physical Wade has played in his 9 year career, his body has taken more of a toll than most of the same length career. In addition to missing 17 games this year due to injury, Wade has also missed significant time (20+ games in a year) in three other years due to injury. Wade's numbers don't show it yet, but I think there could be some value in trading him to get more depth, especially while he has some miles on the treads.

5. No matter how many titles they win, Coach Erik Spoelstra will never get any credit. There aren't too many coaches who could go under the radar or get as little of the team's credit as Spoelstra has. Many people (perhaps idiots) speculated that he would be canned if they didn't win a title this year. I don't know a whole bunch about him other than his unusual rise up the ladder from video editor to coach. I know Pat Riley loves the guy - not sure how unconditional that love would be if they fell short again though. This buys Spoelstra at least another two years - of which I believe the Heat to win at least one championship in that time (possibly both). I'm not sure if it's fair that he doesn't get much credit, but he should get some.

4. LeBron needs to stay hungry and continue to play with a chip on his shoulder. Look at what happened with Dallas this year. Dirk was so out of shape that his coaches recommended that he take time off during the season to get back into shape. I'm not sure if he didn't think there would be a season or what, but the way he entered this year gave people the impression that one title was enough for him. I definitely don't see LeBron having the same problem in terms of entering the 2012-13 season with a beer belly, but I do think he needs to find a way to avoid the post-first-title hangover that seemed to accompany Nowitzki. Look at how LBJ played in this year's playoffs - he took his game to a level that wasn't surprising given his talents, but surprised people given his recent bad fortune in the playoffs. It goes to show how talented LBJ is that "bad fortune" in your career means making it to 2 NBA Finals & a conference final before the age of 27. If he can stay hungry and not get a hangover, I believe the Heat (including this year) will win 4 or 5 out of the next 6 titles.

3. Outside of themselves, the biggest obstacle to a prolonged NBA title run for the Heat will be the Thunder. I believe that the Thunder will remain the best in the west for the next 3-4 years, presuming they keep their core of Durant, Westbrook & Ibaka (I think Harden will sign elsewhere for a max contract). It will be nearly impossible for the Thunder to maintain their current collection of talent given potential salary cap problems. To those who know basketball, superstars like Durant rarely win at a young age - it usually takes one or two lumps to the forehead to know what it takes to win the title. I do think Durant will win one or two titles in his career, but I think it may not be for a few more years.

2. The Heat winning the title was good for the NBA.  My friend Nick said he will continue to hate the Heat much like he hates the Yankees. I bet if you polled 100 random sports fans who their least favorite team in NBA/MLB was, the Heat and Yankees would be the frontrunners to win those titles. Think - what did it take for everyone to hate the Yankees so much? The answer: titles...and lots of 'em. If the Yankees currently had as many titles as the Cubs, do you think people would hate them as much? Sports fans tend to hate teams that have prolonged runs of success. People hated the Heat before they won anything, so you can only imagine now how much more they will hate the Heat if they go on a Bulls-like 6-of-8 run here. I believe this hate for the Heat will equal ratings gold for the NBA.

Unlike MJ, whose commercial appeal defined him more than his selfish, asshole attitude, LeBron doesn't have the same appeal with the mainstream media. I don't know if it's people still holding that bad 48-hour stretch of hosting a primetime show to declare where he was taking his talents and then stating how many titles he was going to win against him, but LeBron has taken the most shit from haters in the Twitter era of basketball. I think MJ should be lucky he didn't play in this social media era, because his attitude and personality would have gotten more exposure than it did back in the day, where it seemed like folks in the media were afraid to call out MJ on his discretions off the court.

1. My prediction: by the end of his career, LeBron will have as many titles as Jordan. While they won their first titles at the same age, LeBron also had a few more seasons underneath his belt. Both needed the help of other Hall of Fame/All-Star quality people around him to win it all (LBJ has Wade & Bosh, MJ had Pippen & Phil Jackson). Both needed to overcome the "so close, yet so far" feeling - LeBron losing to the Spurs & Mavs in separate NBA Finals, MJ being dominated by the Pistons for that three year stretch.

Once MJ got going, the only thing that really stopped him was his first brief retirement, which some conspiracy folks believe was a suspension for his gambling ways. In his last 6 full seasons with the Bulls, Jordan led them to titles, including setting a record for most wins in a year with 72 in 1995-96. I don't know if LeBron (or anyone) will ever beat this record, but I do believe LeBron, if surrounded with the right talent, can start a similar title run.

I know living in Chicago, we have the idea in our heads that MJ won these titles by himself - he didn't. Every superstar needs some semblance of talent around him to succeed on the biggest stage. I think the core of LBJ & Bosh (assuming my scenario above plays out and Wade ends up getting traded) would be as good of a starting point as anybody in the NBA for a prolonged run of titles.

Much of this stuff above is opinion and speculation, so feel free to dissect it. I'm not always the best when it comes to predicting what will happen.

All I know is, whether you hate the Heat or not, you better be ready to see them in the last two series of the NBA playoffs every year for a while.

The Finals Countdown: NBA Playoff Preview (2K12 version)

The 2012 NBA Playoffs are right around the corner. I got half of the Finals right last year (Heat but no Thunder). Now, that particular match-up is the one that many would like to see (and one that many expect to see).

The Spurs expect to make a strong push as they get the #1 seed in the West for the 2nd year in a row. Somehow, they were written off by many (except for my friend Tom), probably because their age was looked at as a detriment in the compacted schedule due to the lockout.  Popovich (along with Thibodeau and Vogel) should be considered a front-runner for Coach of the Year with how he has been able to manage his version of the Big Three (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili) along with the rest of his roster. I came across a stat on Twitter (didn't double check it, so take this for what it's worth) that the Spurs only lost 3 games total when their roster (I assume their normal starters) was at full strength.

The Thunder look like a good bet to make a run. Coming off of his third straight scoring title, Kevin Durant looks to have a complete squad around him (another scoring option in Westbrook, solid defenders in Harden and Ibaka, a veteran with a few rings in Derek Fisher). I'm looking at Spurs/Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, with the Thunder taking it.

The top spot in the East goes to the Bulls again. Despite the absence of Derrick Rose due to various injuries for what seemed like months, Tom Thibodeau was able to muster out a 50-16 record and the top overall seed in the NBA. However, no matter how much Bulls and their fans may be happy with the #1 seed in the East, they will (and should) be ultimately judged on whether they can make the next step in the 2012 Playoffs and advance to the NBA Finals. This will likely involve a matchup versus the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.

When the season started, we all wanted to just fast-forward into the end of May and get the Miami/Chicago series going already - pretty much dismissing the rest of the East. While I still think this will be the series, my convictions on the series are not as strong. I'm not sure if Miami has been on cruise control in the regular season and waiting for the playoffs to step everything up, but they've given me an uneasy feeling in terms of backing them to win it all. They had a two-week streak earlier this year of beating teams by 12+ points, so I know there's a championship caliber team there if they play up to their talent level.

Last year, the Heat took four straight after losing Game 1 to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of the credit for that series win goes to LeBron's defense on Rose, one of the few guys who can match Rose's speed and has many inches on the reigning MVP. I'd say the Bulls look better as a team this year, but the playoffs are a different matter. I still think the Heat will take the East, especially with Rose's health lingering as a constant question throughout the year. If Rose can maintain a semblence of health, I'd give the Bulls a good shot of winning it. BUT, and it's a big BUT, someone else will need to step up as a scorer in the series in the event LBJ contains Rose just as well as last year. With Rose's health in question, I have to give the Heat the edge.

You may argue that the Bulls played well (even against the Heat) without Rose this year, but they will need Rose at his best in a 7-game series (no matter how deep their bench) against the Heat.

So for the second year in a row, I'm going Heat/Thunder in the finals, with the Heat winning it. It's not much of a reach, but it's just what I see happening. If you care to provide your own opinions, I'm all ears.

Eastern Conference Playoffs
R1: Bulls over Sixers (sweeeeeep); Celtics over Atlanta in 6 (I can't trust Atlanta. Ever.) Miami over NY in 5; Pacers over Magic in 6
R2: Bulls over Celtics in 7 (trying to duplicate their series from 2010, with the reverse result); Miami over Indiana in 6
ECF: Miami over Chicago in 6

Western Conference Playoffs
R1: Spurs over Jazz in 5; Memphis over LAC in 6; Denver over LAL in 6 (they will miss World Peace); Thunder over Mavericks in 6
R2: Spurs over Memphis in 7; Thunder over Denver in 5
WCF: Thunder over Spurs in 6

Finals
Heat over Thunder in 6.

Finals MVP: Dwyane Wade

Regular Season Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel, Pacers
League MVP: LBJ, Miami
Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Cle
6th Man: James Harden, OKC
Improved Player: Ryan Anderson, Magic
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC