Reheat: NBA Preview 2012

With such a short offseason compared to other major sports, it never feels like NBA is out of season.

The freshest things in mind are the ones I'll touch upon. I have friends who I'd consider bigger basketball junkies than me - I'll give you a simpleton's point of view with this past offseason.

The Dwight Stuff

It only took what seemed liked decades, but Dwight Howard finally got his wishes to leave Orlando when his old team traded him to the Lakers. Howard joins veteran Steve Nash as the big acquisitions to the Lakers, who are gearing up for at least one more Kobe title run before he hangs it up in a few years. Anyone who thought the Lakers were not the favorites to land Howard all along (rumors had him going to the Nets as they kick off their inaugural season in Brooklyn). I believe the Lakers will make it far, but I believe their championship will have to wait a year.

Agony of the Heat

Speaking of champions, America's least favorite team - ok, maybe more so Chicago area's least favorite team - is the reigning NBA champion. They added sharpshooting veteran Ray Allen to the mix - a great move in my opinion. I foresee a lot of Lebron kick-outs to a wide open Allen for three this season. With the championship taste still in their mouths, I expect the champs to repeat en route to what should be a dynasty that features at least 4-5 championships (assuming LeBron stays there and doesn't opt out in a couple years).

Thunder Struck

Just a few days ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded away James Harden to the Houston Rockets, with the key player coming to the Thunder being Kevin Martin. A lot of people are wondering why the Thunder would make such a move, but apparently Harden turned down a contract with them (wasn't a max contract). With the trade, he can make about 50% more over the life of the contract (signing a max deal w/ Houston over the deal the Thunder offered) if I've read everything right. So he goes from a championship caliber team to a rebuilding one - the classic "Should I chase money or rings?" argument. He can't convince me or anyone else that he thinks he'll even come close to sniffing a conference finals, yet alone contend for a title, in the next 3-4 years, where with OKC, he's likely guaranteed a few more title appearances if he stays. More power to him for taking the money. We all say we'd go for the ring if we were these guys, but WE aren't talented basketball players capable of being in a position to make these choices. Good luck Harden - you'll need it.

Flop It Like It's Hot

One of the biggest rule changes that took place over the offseason was the NBA instituting a fine system for players who attempt to flop on fouls in their attempt to eliminate it from the game. I forgot what journalist said it (I think it was Bomani Jones) who said this will likely create a class in the NBA of those who can afford to flop and those who can't. Players can be fined up to 30K if they are caught flopping up to five times. A guy making six figures won't chance flopping that many times. Should be interesting to see (a) how often this gets enforced and (b) who are guys who get hit with the most fines.

Predictions By Division (in predicted order) - numbers represent their predicted seed in playoffs

Eastern Conference

Atlantic: 2. Boston, 5. Philly, 7. Brooklyn, New York, Toronto

Central: 3. Indiana, 6. Chicago, 8.  Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit

Southeast: 1. Miami, 4. Atlanta, Washington, Orlando, Charlotte

Notes: Yes, probably a little shocked to see Cleveland in the playoffs. I was initially surprised to put them there, but then remembered several playoff teams from last year (New York and Orlando) who I eliminated from consideration. Kyrie should take the next step and show why Cleveland picked him number 1.

Otherwise, my picks are pretty bland. I picked all of the favorites to win their respective divisions here. The most likely division for a long-shot winner would probably be the Atlantic. The Heat should clinch the Southeast title by the end of March, if not sooner. If Rose can return and shake off the rust quick, I could see the Bulls finishing top 2 or 3 in the conference. My projection is that if he does return, the rust will take a while to shake.

Western Conference

Northwest: 2. Denver, 3. Oklahoma City, 7. Utah, Minnesota, Portland

Pacific: 1. LA Lakers, 6. LA Clippers, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento

Southwest: 4. Memphis, 5. San Antonio, 8. Dallas, Houston, New Orleans

Notes: I threw a curveball and have Denver and Memphis as division winners. I think I'm buying into Denver based on Hollinger's projection more so than my own analysis. I also think it could take some time for the Thunder to get used to playing without Harden. The Lakers should roll this division but will likely save their energy for the playoffs, so 56/57 wins should be expected as opposed to 60+.

Eastern Playoffs Round 1: Miami over Cleveland, Boston over Brooklyn, Chicago over Indiana, Atlanta over Philly

Western Playoffs Round 1: Lakers over Dallas, Denver over Utah, OKC over Clips, San Antonio over Memphis

EP Round 2: Miami over Atlanta, Boston over Chicago

WP Round 2: Lakers over Spurs, OKC over Denver

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Boston

Western Conference Finals: Lakers over OKC

Finals: Miami over LA in 6

NBA MVP: LBJ.......Sleeper: Kyrie Irving 

NBA 6th Man:  Manu Ginobili. San Antonio.....Sleeper: I don't know this category well enough to predict it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC.....Sleeper: Andre Iguodala - Denver

Coach of the Year: George Karl, Denver....Sleeper: Larry Drew, Atlanta

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans

Most Improved Player: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland

Random prop questions:

1. Will anyone get flop fines up until/past the fifth flop? No
2. Will the Bobcats set an NBA record for losses in a season? No, but barely
3. Return timeline for Derrick Rose - All-Star Break (Before or After): After
4. Biggest Longshot w/ a title hope: Denver at 50/1
5. Biggest Favorite w/ little title hope: Chicago at 16/1 (No Rose, No Shot)

Bets made before season: Denver to win Northwest division +540 (50/270); Denver Over 51.5 wins (130/100)

NBA Playoffs - Round 2

As the NBA Playoffs first round comes to an end, there have been some surprises, at least to Joe Public:

• Chicago had its hands full, albeit in only 5 games, vs Indiana. Four out of the five games ended competitively. It may have been the best thing to happen to the Bulls, who got a taste of what NBA playoff basketball is all about - rough, tough, grind-it-out
• After being throttled last year by the Magic, the Hawks weren't given much chance to win their series, including yours truly. Atlanta did exactly what they needed to do to win the series: win one road game and hold their own at home. I think the Bulls should be happy they don't have to face Howard- considering that the Indiana bigs seemed to have their way with the Bulls
• Miami disposed of Philly in 5. Philly's fight in the series shouldn't be a surprise, but they just don't have the talent Miami has.
• Boston aimed to make my Knicks prediction to win the series an ugly guess. And ugly might be an understatement. What a bad bad guess. Boston showed its playoff pride off in fashion, setting up the best series of the young playoffs with their matchup against the Heat.
• OKC win their first playoff series in their young franchise history, edging the Nuggets in three close matchups on their way to a 4-1 series win. I feel confident in OKC making it to the conference finals even more so than before.
• Dallas win in 6 in what first appeared to be a series where the home team would win all 7 games until Dallas ruined that pattern in 6. Dallas survived a game 4 meltdown by coming out strong in games 5 and 6 to close out the series.
• Lakers don't get any style points (at least to start) in their series win against the Hornets, but luckily this isn't gymnastics. They did close out the series well after playing to a 2-2 draw to start the series, throttling New Orleans in the final two games. The Laker switch is officially on.
• Memphis looks to become the first 8 seed in about 5 years to win a series (since the Warriors upended the Mavericks in 6 games)

So all of this leads up to 2nd round predictions, which if they were anything like my 1st round predictions, will probably be horsecrap and instant fade material:

• Miami vs. Boston (Bookmaker series odds: Miami -195/Boston +165): While this series may open up the 2nd round action, in the realm of fan interest, would be the main event match/series. Boston took the season series from Miami (as every good team aside from the Lakers seemed to do), downing Miami in 3 of 4 games. My guess for Miami being a decent favorite here would haveA to do with home court, but Boston is more than capable of winning on the road against them. This has the makings of a fantastic series to watch. I say they split the first two games in Miami, then the next two in Boston. From there, I got home court playing the role in the winner. Prediction: Heat in 7 games.
• Chicago vs. Atlanta (Bookmaker series odds: Chicago -900/Atlanta +650): These odds seem too steep for the Bulls here, although they did dominate the Hawks in 5 out of the 6 halves of basketball (only bad half resulted in the Bulls' lone loss vs Hotlanta). Atlanta took care of business in all three of their home games against Orlando in the last series. The Bulls, unlike Orlando, will not lose a home game in the series and will probably steal a game in Atlanta. Prediction: Bulls in 5 games.
• Los Angeles vs. Dallas (Bookmaker series odds: Lakers -380/Mavs +320): I'm not as sold on the Lakers as I thought I'd be at this point. They did close the last series like only the Lakers can. I think the Mavs will give the Lakers problems, particularly with the depth that they have. At the end of the day, I can't fade Kobe. Prediction: Lakers in 7.
• Oklahoma City vs. Memphis/San Antonio (Series odds: N/A): Since I want to beat the clock by getting all of my series predictions out there now, I'll be forced to project each team's chances against OKC. The Spurs would be a slight favorite over the Thunder if only for home court advantage and playoff experience, whereas Memphis would be an underdog in the +225/250 for the series. Either way, nothing that I've seen from OKC in their 5 game tilt against Denver makes me change my mind about them. My only worry is that Westbrook is a chucker, so Durant better make sure to shoot, shoot, shoot (and maybe shoot more) as he always does. I believe the Thunder will take the next step (as a franchise) against whoever they play. Prediction: OKC in 6 (against either team).

These predictions shouldn't come as a shock to anyone who read my NBA playoff preview. I'm not one so stubborn to go against previous predictions, but everything I've seen from the teams I had in my NBA Final Four has me believing that each will continue on their current paths.

Peace out.