The freshest things in mind are the ones I'll touch upon. I have friends who I'd consider bigger basketball junkies than me - I'll give you a simpleton's point of view with this past offseason.
The Dwight Stuff
It only took what seemed liked decades, but Dwight Howard finally got his wishes to leave Orlando when his old team traded him to the Lakers. Howard joins veteran Steve Nash as the big acquisitions to the Lakers, who are gearing up for at least one more Kobe title run before he hangs it up in a few years. Anyone who thought the Lakers were not the favorites to land Howard all along (rumors had him going to the Nets as they kick off their inaugural season in Brooklyn). I believe the Lakers will make it far, but I believe their championship will have to wait a year.
Agony of the Heat
Speaking of champions, America's least favorite team - ok, maybe more so Chicago area's least favorite team - is the reigning NBA champion. They added sharpshooting veteran Ray Allen to the mix - a great move in my opinion. I foresee a lot of Lebron kick-outs to a wide open Allen for three this season. With the championship taste still in their mouths, I expect the champs to repeat en route to what should be a dynasty that features at least 4-5 championships (assuming LeBron stays there and doesn't opt out in a couple years).
Thunder Struck
Just a few days ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded away James Harden to the Houston Rockets, with the key player coming to the Thunder being Kevin Martin. A lot of people are wondering why the Thunder would make such a move, but apparently Harden turned down a contract with them (wasn't a max contract). With the trade, he can make about 50% more over the life of the contract (signing a max deal w/ Houston over the deal the Thunder offered) if I've read everything right. So he goes from a championship caliber team to a rebuilding one - the classic "Should I chase money or rings?" argument. He can't convince me or anyone else that he thinks he'll even come close to sniffing a conference finals, yet alone contend for a title, in the next 3-4 years, where with OKC, he's likely guaranteed a few more title appearances if he stays. More power to him for taking the money. We all say we'd go for the ring if we were these guys, but WE aren't talented basketball players capable of being in a position to make these choices. Good luck Harden - you'll need it.
Flop It Like It's Hot
One of the biggest rule changes that took place over the offseason was the NBA instituting a fine system for players who attempt to flop on fouls in their attempt to eliminate it from the game. I forgot what journalist said it (I think it was Bomani Jones) who said this will likely create a class in the NBA of those who can afford to flop and those who can't. Players can be fined up to 30K if they are caught flopping up to five times. A guy making six figures won't chance flopping that many times. Should be interesting to see (a) how often this gets enforced and (b) who are guys who get hit with the most fines.
Predictions By Division (in predicted order) - numbers represent their predicted seed in playoffs
Eastern Conference
Atlantic: 2. Boston, 5. Philly, 7. Brooklyn, New York, Toronto
Central: 3. Indiana, 6. Chicago, 8. Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit
Southeast: 1. Miami, 4. Atlanta, Washington, Orlando, Charlotte
Notes: Yes, probably a little shocked to see Cleveland in the playoffs. I was initially surprised to put them there, but then remembered several playoff teams from last year (New York and Orlando) who I eliminated from consideration. Kyrie should take the next step and show why Cleveland picked him number 1.
Otherwise, my picks are pretty bland. I picked all of the favorites to win their respective divisions here. The most likely division for a long-shot winner would probably be the Atlantic. The Heat should clinch the Southeast title by the end of March, if not sooner. If Rose can return and shake off the rust quick, I could see the Bulls finishing top 2 or 3 in the conference. My projection is that if he does return, the rust will take a while to shake.
Western Conference
Northwest: 2. Denver, 3. Oklahoma City, 7. Utah, Minnesota, Portland
Pacific: 1. LA Lakers, 6. LA Clippers, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento
Southwest: 4. Memphis, 5. San Antonio, 8. Dallas, Houston, New Orleans
Notes: I threw a curveball and have Denver and Memphis as division winners. I think I'm buying into Denver based on Hollinger's projection more so than my own analysis. I also think it could take some time for the Thunder to get used to playing without Harden. The Lakers should roll this division but will likely save their energy for the playoffs, so 56/57 wins should be expected as opposed to 60+.
Eastern Playoffs Round 1: Miami over Cleveland, Boston over Brooklyn, Chicago over Indiana, Atlanta over Philly
Western Playoffs Round 1: Lakers over Dallas, Denver over Utah, OKC over Clips, San Antonio over Memphis
EP Round 2: Miami over Atlanta, Boston over Chicago
WP Round 2: Lakers over Spurs, OKC over Denver
Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Boston
Western Conference Finals: Lakers over OKC
Finals: Miami over LA in 6
NBA MVP: LBJ.......Sleeper: Kyrie Irving
NBA 6th Man: Manu Ginobili. San Antonio.....Sleeper: I don't know this category well enough to predict it.
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC.....Sleeper: Andre Iguodala - Denver
Coach of the Year: George Karl, Denver....Sleeper: Larry Drew, Atlanta
Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans
Most Improved Player: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
Random prop questions:
- Will anyone get flop fines up until/past the fifth flop? No
- Will the Bobcats set an NBA record for losses in a season? No, but barely
- Return timeline for Derrick Rose - All-Star Break (Before or After): After
- Biggest Longshot w/ a title hope: Denver at 50/1
- Biggest Favorite w/ little title hope: Chicago at 16/1 (No Rose, No Shot)
Bets made before season: Denver to win Northwest division +540 (50/270); Denver Over 51.5 wins (130/100)
No comments:
Post a Comment