Unemployment Chronicles Chapter 4: Thank You

For a second there, I felt like a teenager using social media.

That second was the moment I checked a simple posting on Facebook that I was debating even putting out to the world in the first place. A short, simple statement with not much depth, but with a lot of potential impact in my life.

Brian Bolek

Interview time. Let's do it

This simple status was posted a moment before I got out of my car Wednesday afternoon, dressed in my powder blue dress shirt that I wore while standing up as best man in my friend's wedding a few years ago, accompanied by a tie from a wedding I attended Memorial Day weekend. The marriage of these pieces of clothing built my confidence to an appropriate level entering the interview.

Instead of spoiling how the interview went, what the job was for, what were some questions I was asked  (and so forth), I would rather focus on the feeling that I felt, hours after the interview was done, once I checked to see the encouragement I received from a simple social media posting.

We all know the deal with these postings - we all have our lives and like to share them with people. Some like to get a rise out of people; others like to share pictures and news with people who they may be lucky to see once a year, with a bunch of different circumstances in between. I've shared my share of Unemployment Chronicles in the past couple months, none which featured details of an interview or great job lead. And now that I have both, I feel like I'm Mileying you with my flesh-covered resume, teasing you with what may have happened (or not have happened).

It's not the actual job or the interview that matters to me at this point - it's the reaction I felt when I saw the plethora of "likes" and the words of encouragement from many of you, wishing me luck and wanting me to get out of this unemployment state. Yes - these messages we post are often self-serving, and yes - we unreasonably need reassurance from time to time that we have a great network of people behind us. And that's what I felt at that time. I want to thank all of you for your encouragement.

The biggest thanks go to the closest around me - Jen, my parents, brother, sister, sister-in-law, nephew, grandma, my closest friends, etc. It's for all of you that I wish to succeed and make the most of these 7-9 decades of life that we're lucky to have on this earth, wherever I decide to work.

Football Twitter Guide - from A thru Z

Since I'm at that point where I can't get enough of football items, I figured I would go through all the people I follow on Twitter and offer some names of folks whose tweets I will be looking forward to reading throughout the season by group. I will amend/add names to this as the season goes. Please provide your own folks for these subjects. Also, if I forgot your name, don't be afraid to tell me and I'll use my discretion on recommending you!

Fantasy Sports:

@CDCarter13 - Just started following him, but based on the few days I have, will be a valuable resource for those looking for fantasy football thoughts/advice. His affiliation with XNSports (formerly SportsJerks) is enough for me to recommend him.

@LordReebs - Originally started conversing w/ Rich last year through our 49ers affiliation, but soon grew to learn of his fantasy football knowledge. Writes for XNSports (formerly SportsJerks), which has a much different take on fantasy football than your average fantasy sports site.

Investors (Most of these people I've followed thru at least one NFL season - at the very least thru one or two betting seasons):

@andrewssports - Offers a bookmaker's perspective, which is something I enjoy hearing. Will occasionally tweet out some of his picks.

@behindthebets - If you are looking for a good capper who uses his powers for good (accessing most of his picks @BTBPicks requires proof of donation to charity), you'd be hard-pressed to get a better one.

@beatingthebook - His weekly podcast (released on Fridays) is worth the follow alone. While his actual picks are on a site which requires paid membership, Gill usually has some good guests on the NFL podcast which get you thinking about different aspects of NFL betting.

@bettingtalk_ - While I'm not sure how their new site will be, their old site/handle (Beyond The Bets) was a great window into the Vegas community - information galore. This recommendation is based on reputation of old site.

@Big_East - Not sure how his tweets will be now that he has joined forces with a site that requires paid membership for picks, but anyone who has followed his history knows that Big_East is the real deal.

@DavidPurdum - Solid writer who covers Vegas/gambling biz. Provides useful information that can help with your wagers.

@ESPN_Colin - One of the strongest public advocates for sports wagering. His Blazing Five picks were "Off The Charts" hot last year. You may find his radio show annoying, but don't take his takes on Vegas lightly.

@FlopFlippity - Doesn't tweet as much as he should, but does offer occasional picks. Unofficial member of #BolekMadness

@HeHaithMe - One of the few guys recently who has gone the way of paid services for picks. He was absolute money on MAC games last year.

@hustledouble - well-rounded capper who has a writing itch that needs to be scratched like yours truly. Offers good insight on his picks. Becoming one of my more frequent daily conversationalists on Twitter.

@JoeFortenbaugh - A writer for the National Football Post, provides solid capping and fantasy football thoughts. A frequent contributor to the @beatingthebook podcast.

@kalind_totals - the master of the totals (NFL/NCAA). Kalind & I will occasionally appear this season on @SportsMula, an up-and-coming sports site for sports fans.

@KegsNEggs - Head college writer for Bleacher Report. He always has a few bets going on any given Saturday.

@lindetrain - Another guy in Vegas who tweets a lot about the industry. I don't recall him tweeting much about his picks, but does provide good gambling info.

@NotTheFakeBruce - Just started following him, but based on who recommended him to me, I can put my recommendation on him. Look for Bruce and myself to provide some NFL picks on @SportsMula.

@notthefakeSVP - Along w/ Cowherd, the voice of the gambler for ESPN. Frequently discusses gambling angles through Twitter as well as his nationally syndicated show.

@ScottinVAN - Frequent tweeter who often posts about his gambling goings-on. Wears his wager on his sleeve as his bets are going on (not a bad thing).

@SheaInIrving - Known best for his calls into the DP Show, provides just as much entertainment with his tweets about gambling and sports.

@SportsInsights - While maximizing their site would require payment (which I haven't done), you should still get a lot out of following the occasional posting that they offer. Big proponents of reverse line movement.

@Stuckey2 - While many don't like him for his occasional brashness, Stuckey is a solid, steady capper. Almost always want to be on the same side of him when it comes to Baltimore Ravens games (p.s. he likes Denver in Week 1 & Baltimore Under 8.5 wins)

@ToddFuhrman - Vegas insider who knows his stuff. He provides solid gambling advice and thoughts on ToddsTake.com.

@tomf_18 - While he doesn't post picks, Tom does make me laugh my ass off with some of his takes on certain aspects of betting and life. The person who I've gone on the most Vegas trips with.

@twolf2123 - While he doesn't tweet all that often, I recommend him if and when he does tweet. Very good personal friend of mine.

@WagerMinds - My favorite WagerMinds tweets are ones where he tells people to "Tear Up Your Ticket". For the first time last year, one of those alerts ended up causing bettors to paste together their picks. Has a good site for those who want to dip their feet into gambling waters w/o actually gambling.

Just Football:

@AndrewPerloff - Dan Patrick's go-to guy for NFL matters and occasional writer for SI. Weekly segment on DP Show (usually on Fridays) of Against the Grain is almost always entertaining (especially when it involves props) and occasionally informative.

@Ben_Jones88 - Been following him since the Sandusky trial. Reports on Penn State matters. Provides different takes on matters; will be a future sports voice, whether it be in college sports or otherwise.

@BerserkHippo - A personal friend of mine. College football is his sport - a lot of tweets on Big Ten teams, especially his favorite team Michigan. Also, check out his podcast on his site of the same name, where he and co-host @LionEsquire will occasionally discuss football matters.

@Brad_Zoe - He changes his handle every now and then (this is what it is for right now). Loves tweeting up his thoughts on sports - definitely some interesting takes on certain things. Probably the most sporadic tweeter I know, so be ready for some tweets on other subjects that a male in their young 20s will tweet (you've been warned).

@HubbuchNYP - Has the NY/NE angle of sports covered. Never afraid to be critical, at the expense of people calling him a homer of (insert rival team here).

@JasonLaCanfora - Provides solid NFL news for CBS Sports.

@JayGlazer - If there's a scoop, Jay knows about it. Also handles Twitter trolls as well as anyone I know.

@LionEsquire - Another personal friend of mine. He doesn't tweet often, and pending marriage stuff will likely inhibit this further. You can catch his football thoughts on Berserk Hippo's podcast from time-to-time.

@LostLetterman - Frequent posts/news on college football matters.

@MikeFreemanNFL - Just moved from CBS Sports to Bleacher Report. I enjoy his posts/takes on NFL matters, and like Glazer, enjoy his handling of trolls.

@PFF - For the more sophisticated, analytical football fan. PFF grades every position on a +/- scale and are relied upon by just about every respected football expert.

@RichEisen - master of the NFL Network. Also has a highly-acclaimed podcast with high profile guests.

@SI_DougFarrar - Writes about NFL-related items for Sports Illustrated, with a long history of writing about the same subject for Yahoo. My favorite tweets of his involve hypocrisy of NCAA.

@SportsMula - A site I just started contributing to recently. The site has strong aspirations to give a different take on sports with writers who are looking to make a name for themselves.

Niner Nation (Grouping us all together - since it is a Nation, after all)

@AdrianPorterfi2

@GafflezMalone

@JedYork

@Kokopelli_49ers

@LordReebs

@TheDopeyOne

@Woods49ers

NFL vs College Football: Which Brand of Football Do You Prefer?

In about 48 hours, the college football season kicks off with North Carolina and South Carolina butting heads on ESPN. A week and an hour later, the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens head to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos to start up the NFL slate of games that count.

Many of us watch both brands of football; some of us intently watch an equal amount of Saturday and Sunday football, while others have a true football love. The stories below reflect those who have true ties to one or the other.

The College Guys

Kalind

In discussing his love of college football, Kalind (you can find him on Twitter - @kalind_totals) reflects on a childhood rich with memories of Saturdays past spent watching college football with his dad.

"I have been watching college football for as long as my eyes could focus on a TV if you let my mother tell the story," Kalind said. "She says my father held me on Saturday afternoons while he watched."

His first college football memories come from watching the Florida Gators (his hometown rooting interest at the time) taking on Georgia in 1980. Watching the Gators lose on a late touchdown from Buck Belue to Lindsay Scott broke young Kalind's heart, but set in motion a lifelong love of the sport.

"The collegiate atmosphere is what stands out to me," he said. "The Swamp, Autzen Stadium, The Big House, The 12th Man, Death Valley. Gets no better."

He cites the evolution of offenses (from the wishbone to the current trend of the spread) and coach's constant pursuit of finding mismatches as other drawing points to his fascination with the college game over the pro version.

Due to his investing into the games, Kalind no longer has a particular rooting interest in any team but does consider the SEC his favorite conference to watch.

"I enjoy watching the SEC for the tradition in rivalries and the diverse approach to the game itself," he said. "Their ability to be a defensive minded conference yet have skilled enough offensive players to destroy opponents is what draws me to the conference. They have a complete balance of TEAM concept where neither side if the ball is solely responsible for winning games.

"The talent level is directly linked to the passion the South has for the sport from youth league up through college and the parents are just as dedicated and passionate as their sons who play the game."

Kalind's Saturdays are spent in his lab, notepad in hand with games he is investing in or planning on investing in, with remote control close by so he can enjoy the DirecTV package that he purchases every college football season to its fullest potential.

"The outside world doesn't matter much on Saturdays," he said. "I may come up from my lab for the occasional breather but for the most part this is a job I take seriously."

As far as surprise teams go for this season, he considers Boise State and Northwestern as teams who have a great shot at making some noise this season. However, he doesn't think Northwestern's schedule lends itself well to consistent defensive efforts, as Kalind believes they will be facing strong rushing attacks from the fifth week of the season onward.

And the championship game?

"BCS title game will be Oregon vs Georgia." he said. "The shoot out we have been waiting for has found itself in the Rose Bowl on Jan 6th with Oregon taking the last drive of the game to win and stop the dominance of the SEC to the tune of 41-40. This will be an explosion of two of the very best offensive teams college football has to offer and it will usher in what many college football fans have wanted for quite some time, a playoff system."

Nick

Nick doesn't subscribe to the DirecTV package like Kalind does, but he does take in a lot of games each Saturday (he sets up three televisions in his living room to watch as much live action as possible). The amount of games is definitely one of the draws for him when it comes to his love of college football.

"The volume of games is just so much higher," he said. "Without buying Sunday Ticket, the most NFL games a person could see at home in a given week is 5-6, but there are times where on a given Saturday there are that many games on TV at the same time. More games increases the chance that one of them will be awesome.

"College football moves faster, and it's more exciting. Because the skill level isn't as high, things can change so quickly and the volume of exciting/big plays is much higher."

Like Kalind, Nick appreciates the atmosphere that surrounds college football and its fans.

"The students represent a different kind of fan than what the NFL has," he said. "It's much cooler to see the student section going crazy than some 45 year old guy with his face painted. There's also the mascots, the cheerleaders and the bands. The fact that players can only be there for four years means that there is a freshness to things that you can't get in the NFL."

His earliest memories of college football stem from a few Big Ten teams making Rose Bowl runs (Wisconsin & Northwestern), but his true love of the sport (and of the University of Michigan football) started when he attended college in the early 2000s, even though his school didn't have a college team.

Nick's Saturdays in the Fall are full of TVs and games, dedicating himself to this setup from the moment games kick off at 11am CST till the late games end about a half day later.

When asked about who will surprise this season, Nick provided a conference who he thinks will sneak up on people.

"It's really hard in any sport, in the Internet age, to call things a surprise because everyone gets so much coverage and everyone has a "surprise" team," he said. "I think the Pac 12 is better than everyone gives it credit (even outside of Stanford and Oregon), so I think the "surprise" could be them being much better and deeper than anyone is looking at. UCLA, Washington, Arizona and Arizona St. all got votes but are outside of the top 25. Lots of talent on those teams."

In fact, he has a PAC-12 team in his championship game. Nick's title game features Alabama winning its third straight title over Stanford.

"If this was year one of the new playoff system, I would throw Georgia and Clemson in as well," Nick said. "Clemson has a history of shooting themselves in the foot which is why I won't pick them to make it outright, but they have a ton of talent."

The Pro Peeps

Brad


The youngest of the interviewees for this series, Brad's first memories of watching the NFL aren't much different than many of us born/raised in the 1980s.

"My earliest memory of watching the NFL is when I was a child, maybe 4 or 5," he said. "My dad showing me Bears games he recorded on VHS! Seeing Walter Payton's incredible runs."

Runs like that help define what Brad loves most about the NFL.

"The skill level of the NFL players and coaching is leaps and bounds better," he said.

In his lifetime, the game has changed and put more of a focus on player safety. For that reason, Brad's favorite part of the NFL has changed along with the times.

"It used to be the blind-sided hits and crack back blocks," he said. "Now, it's wide receiver routes. A beautifully run route to separate from a defensive back is beautiful."

The Sunday routine for Brad consists of a wake-up call around 10, pigs in a blanket about an hour later, which leads him right into game-time. Assuming they start at noon, the Chicago Bears dominate his airwaves, then it's the RedZone channel till Sunday Night Football comes on.

In the first potential cold-weather Super Bowl, Brad has a match-up of Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos facing Atlanta, with Peyton and company prevailing to win the Lombardi Trophy.

As far as surprise teams go, Brad went the opposite route of the others here and gave his surprise team to flop on its face this year.

"My surprise team this year is the Patriots. They will be bad...really bad," he said. "Tom Brady, for the first time in his career, has bum options to throw to."

Tim

Going to a Division I school isn't necessary for people to become fans of college football. In the case of Tim, it's one of the many reasons why he just can't get into college as much as the NFL.

"I never been able to make the attachment as a fan to any college team as it doesn’t seem natural and I can’t generate the same passion as the ones that did go to a Division I school," he said. "(Also), I think there are just way too many college teams and the product seems to get watered down."

His earliest memories stem from a team that he now despises - the 1985 Chicago Bears. Since then, he became a huge Dallas Cowboys fan (dating back to their dominance in the early 1990s). The national exposure and exciting players (citing the Irvin/Aikman/Smith triplets) sold him on the team that he continues to love.

So we already heard what he dislikes about college football. What exactly does Tim like about the NFL that makes it so special?

"The competition and parity are my favorite parts of the NFL," he said. "It seems like any team can win on any Sunday. And once playoffs start, throw out the records and watch a wild card team go on a run and take the whole thing."

Like Nick, Tim has a three television set-up that goes from noon till close. The DirecTV package comes in handy for this, allowing for Tim and his company to watch the games of their favorite squads. Getting the smoker or grill started beforehand is also a crucial aspect of Sundays for Tim, who treats his company to a variety of delicious cooked meats throughout the football season.

One surprise he believes is on the horizon for the 2013 season - a bounce back season from Kansas City.

"I like the Chiefs to be a lot better this year with a competent coach now (unless it comes to managing time or his timeouts) and a quarterback that is efficient and  does not turn the ball over," he said. "He is surrounded with some dynamic weapons and a coach that does a good job of getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Their defense will be the biggest question mark/downfall."

The obligatory prediction business - Tim has Matt Ryan as a legitimate MVP candidate, with Ryan leading the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl victory over the Houston Texans to cap off the 2013-14 season.

And his final predictions?

"I like a couple of sophomore slumps to rear its ugly head with Wilson, RGIII and Luck," Tim said. "With more tape out on these guys now, I see defensive coordinators adjusting and slowing them down some. I think Luck’s style makes him the most likely to avoid the slump."

NFL 2013 - A New Betting Approach

They say that NFL predictions are like assholes - everyone has one. Not only do I have NFL predictions, but I'm also an asshole (not really, I'm a nice guy).

Back in June, I posted my way too early 2013 preview, which highlighted my love of both NFL teams in Ohio. Since my opinion hadn't changed on either the Bengals or the Browns, I decided to put money where my mouth is with both teams.

My first set of bets centered around the Bengals being +235 to win the AFC North (odds which have fallen to +185 since) along with their 30/1 Super Bowl odds. I am still pondering a bet on their Over 8.5 wins, but the juice has gotten really high - I'm looking to see either a drop in juice or perhaps an alternate over to bet that would cut the juice.

This weekend, I made my second set of bets. At the one and only Super Bowlek fantasy draft, I bet my friend that Cleveland will make the playoffs this season (at 2/1 odds, which I found out should have been 4/1...oh well). Then, while seeing that the site added odds on specific teams making the playoffs, I took Baltimore's odds of not making the playoffs (-105) as opposed to their under 8.5 wins. The only way I get screwed with this bet is if Baltimore makes the playoffs with an 8-8 record, which is highly unlikely to happen. Otherwise, I'm looking at a bet that will likely win/lose either way (and offers a little insurance if Baltimore goes 9-7/10-6 and misses the playoffs).

I am looking to make more future bets, which will be what I intend on focusing on the most this season.

Some others I am considering:

• St. Louis Over 7.5 wins
• Seattle Under 10.5 wins
• New Orleans Super Bowl odds at 20/1
• Jacksonville Over 5 wins
• Denver Under 11.5 wins
• Kansas City Over 7.5 wins
• Chicago Over 8.5 wins

I plan on narrowing these bets down a little after doing a little more schedule/injury research. I may also bet a couple of player props (i.e. rushing title winner).

I may take a shot on a few moderate division long-shots (Kansas City +570ish, StL +800, Carolina +475). In regards to this, I will be looking at early season schedule to see how likely odds are to shift one way or another on a weekly basis. Since 5dimes offers odds to win division on a weekly basis, you can likely get better odds if the team you think will win the division starts out with a loss or two, so if you can project this correctly, you can get yourself the best odds on the board.

I want the NFL to get here quick. Antsy to see how the Niners do in their first full year with Kaepernick. I am slightly worried about the wide receiver depth, but not really worried about the talent that Kaepernick possesses. I believe every team in the division improved, so no easy outs (I think Arians & Arizona will take a couple games in the division slate of games). 

The rambling has started, so it's time for me to call it a night. I will let y'all know about my finalized futures.

Peace.

Bets Made (updated 9/2/13):

Cincy to win AFC North (+235 - 7/28/13): 1.1 units to win 2.82 units
Cincy to win Super Bowl (30/1 - 8/16/13): 0.6 units to win 18 units
Baltimore NOT making playoffs (-105 - 8/26/13): 1.68 units to win 1.6 units
Dez Bryant leads league in receiving yards (+800 - 8/29/13): 0.9 units to win 7.2 units
Tampa Bay Under 7.5 wins (+125 - 9/2/13): 1.1 units to win 1.5 units
Carolina Over 7 wins/Cleveland Over 6 wins parlay (~+120 9/2/13): 1.6 units to win ~1.91 units

I Don't Care About Your Team: Tips for Making Your Fantasy Football Draft a Success

This is the awesomeness you are missing out on if you do your fantasy drafts online

This weekend marks the prime-time for adults to channel their inner-nerds as we embark on the start of fantasy football season. (Note: If you did your draft weeks/months ago, you're doing it wrong. Way, way wrong)

Many of you folks will participate in a league or two (some of you three or four or however many Steve entered), so you're probably in the same boat as me and doing a little bit of preparation for the draft - although my level of preparation being the commissioner is a little different and more time-consuming than just browsing magazines and hoping I get a few of my sleepers in the later rounds.

To make the most of your fantasy football drafting experience, here's what I recommend:

(1) Do It Live - Fantasy drafts were meant to be done in person. If your fantasy football crew lives within 20-30 miles radius of where you live, there's no reason to have everyone on their computers at home when a potential congregation of losers can come to life. While the in-person draft adds a little time to the draft, it is a lot more amusing with the banter and beer enjoyed with the group.

(2) Be Prepared - You don't need to be a Boy or Girl Scout to know this one. Being prepared (i.e. a minimal understanding of the league rules, who is hurt) is crucial to ensuring that you don't piss off the people in your league when the draft begins. Being prepared also includes having some sort of list or fantasy magazine that you can cross names off of as the players are picked throughout the draft. It may seem like common sense, but having done the in-person draft as a commissioner five times and as a participant in about 10 others, you're never surprised when a new surprise pops up.

(3) Be Ready To Pick - Online drafts usually have a 1:30 or 2 minute window between picks, so as you're doing these drafts, you should have a general idea of certain players or a certain position you may be targeting with your next pick(s). On many sites that I have used, there is a draft queue that allows you to click/drag names of players who you may be targeting with your next set of picks. Utilize this tool to help you decide your players quicker than you would by just slowly browsing up and down the position ranks. Yes, there will be times where a certain player you were eyeing gets snatched up right before your pick, so you may need a little time to regroup. Just don't make it a habit and make the draft drag out longer than need be. In my in-person league, I added a draft clock app to my phone last year, and it gives drafters a good amount of time to make their picks (a generous five minutes). If you're in my league, please, please heed my advice in these points above and below so I don't blow a gasket or deflate your tires.

(4) Have Fun With It- I'm probably way too involved and get way into fantasy football, particularly my own league. It was a problem I recognized recently, so like anyone who wants to solve a problem, I took some action and decided to leave two of my money leagues. When you're to the point where you've joined so many leagues that you can't keep track of what players you have on what teams, and you find yourself rooting for specific players to achieve specific results waaaay too much, you may want to take a step back and realize that you may be in too many leagues and you're taking it way too seriously. While the goal is to win them (especially the money leagues), have fun with the process. Loosen up, have a few drinks, and remember, you're playing FANTASY football. There's no concussions, torn ACLs or broken necks involved in fantasy football...unless (again) you're doing it wrong.

(5) Tip The Commissioner - Just kidding. (No seriously, tip). Well, no need to tip, but realize that if you got a good commissioner, he or she is busting ass, doing painful, tireless work to ensure that everything in the league is all set for the big draft day. I hope my fellas out there know how much of a pain this can be, but the rewards of draft night being finished make it all worth it (well, somewhat worth it). At the very least, tell the commissioner how awesome he or she is and how you will bow down to him or her for being so righteously awesome.

(6) And As Always...No One Except The Teams In Your League Gives A Shit About Your Team - This cannot be stressed enough. I could tell you about the bold moves I made in the offseason of the sixth installment of Super Bowlek, like trading Peyton Manning, my two first non-keeper round picks for 2013 and my 2014 first pick for Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster and a bunch of picks...but do you really care? Most of you stopped reading that previous sentence before I even got to my first verb. If you're in a bunch of fantasy leagues, I expect you to have at least 4 or 5 high quality players, especially if there's less than 14 teams in your league. So don't rattle off the names of all of your great players if I'm not in that league - because I'm not really that interested, just like I know you're not really that interested in mine.

Now that you have your fantasy tips, you can commence your draft process. Now go along, study up, and draft a good team.

Just don't tell me who's on it.

NFL Playoff Paralysis by Analysis: New Playoff Teams & Fun Playoff Facts

Your team not make the NFL playoffs last year? If history is any indication (unless you're a Raiders fan), chances are that they're not that far away from making the January Madness.

Since the Cleveland Browns rejoined the league in 2002 and the NFL went to 4 divisions in each conference, there has been an average of just over 6 new teams in the playoffs from year-to-year (which represents a 50% change from one postseason to the next).

Last year featured the smallest change from one year to the next in the 32-team era (there were only four new teams in the playoffs compared to 2011), including the exact same division winners and only one change in the AFC (the Colts taking the Steelers spot).

So out of these 20 teams who didn't make the playoffs last year, who are the mostly likely (in my eyes) to be playing into January?

No Chance (6): Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets
Sleepers (8): Cleveland, Kansas City, San Diego, Miami, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Decent Shot (2): Detroit, Dallas
Best Chance (4): Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, New Orleans

With how wide open the AFC seems this year, with Baltimore's leadership core depleted and New England losing its top 5 receivers by yardage from 2012, it looks as though that will be the conference that has the best chance to see some new blood in the playoffs (I could see a few of the AFC sleepers I mentioned in the playoffs). Even though I have Pittsburgh out of my playoff bracket for 2013, I mention them as Best Chance mainly off of their recent history to bounce back from a non-playoff season.

So if there's six new teams in the playoffs this year, who are the most likely teams that will be on the outside of the January side of football?

My best guesses:

1. Baltimore (will miss leadership on defense as well as some of their key offensive weapons - Pitta/Boldin helped make Flacco a rich man and will both be missed)
2. Indy (they were the first 11-5 team ever to make the playoffs while allowing more points than they scored - regression to 6 or 7 wins is my projection).
3. Washington (with how competitive the NFC East is and the RG3 health questions entering 2013, I don't see them successfully defending their division crown)
4. Minnesota (Christian Ponder is going to miss Percy Harvin (and Greg Jennings is going to miss Aaron Rodgers), and I don't see how AP can carry this team to a playoff run like he did last year. Plus, like the NFC East, the NFC Central is strong top-to-bottom)
5. Atlanta (this is more of a hunch than based in concrete data. Atlanta destroyed the division last year, but I think New Orleans w/ Sean Payton, Carolina w/ their stud Cam, and Tampa's big moves, like acquiring Revis Island, will likely lead to a few more losses for the Falcons this year)
6. Green Bay (this certainly isn't a reflection of their QB, but more their offensive line, which could get Rodgers killed this year, and their defense, which got shredded in their playoff loss to the 49ers)

New England could get added to this list if Brady isn't able to establish good connections with his new receivers. I also wouldn't be shocked if there was some drop off with Seattle, who seem to be a trendy Super Bowl pick.

Fun Division Facts

There's a few nuggets that I'd like to share in my research and breakdown of the division winners in the 32-team NFL era (2002-current):

• New England and Indianapolis are the only teams to win five straight division titles in this era, each accomplishing their respective feats from 2003-2007. Seattle (2004-2007) and SD (2006-2009) are the only other teams to have a run of four straight division titles.
• The NFC South, which is among four divisions during this time to see all four of its teams win at least one division crown, has yet to have a reigning division title team repeat the next year. This does not bode well for Atlanta.
• In addition to the above fact, the NFC South is the most represented division to make the big game, with a total of three different teams making a Super Bowl (2002 TB, 2003 Carolina, 2009 New Orleans). NFC West also has this distinction (Seattle in 2005, Arizona in 2008, San Fran in 2012).
• Of the 10 teams who have won a Super Bowl between 2003 and 2012, only three of these teams did not make the playoffs the previous year (NE in 2003, NO in 2009, and NYG in 2011)
• Of the 10 Super Bowl losers during this same time, only Carolina (2003), Arizona (2008) and Pittsburgh (2010) failed to make the playoffs the year before.
• Of the 10 Super Bowl winners between 2002 and 2011, three missed the playoffs the following year (Tampa in 2003, Pittsburgh in 2006, NYG in 2012). I am projecting that Baltimore becomes the fourth.
• Of the 10 Super Bowl losers between 2002 and 2011, half of them missed the playoffs the following year (Oakland in 2003, Carolina in 2004, Philly in 2005, Chicago in 2007, New England in 2008).
• 23 of the 32 franchises have made the playoffs at least once in the past four postseasons. The casualties? Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Carolina, Tampa Bay, St. Louis.
• Of these 23, 17 teams (or over half the league) has won at least one playoff game. Baltimore is the only team that has won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years.

After Further Review...: More MLB Changes That Need to Happen

On Thursday, the MLB did the unthinkable - it joined the early 21st century and did something progressive by expanding the use of instant replay starting in 2014. This step is a huge one for MLB, who has struggled to incorporate technology into the game. Some of the traditionalists (ex-players, old and wrinkly writers who have covered the sport for way too long) will frown on this new element being added to the game, as they tend to do with anything that didn't come from the original roots of baseball (basically anything that doesn't involve cameras or advanced stats). Apparently, there's some charm to an umpire missing a call for these traditionalists, as if the human element should triumph common sense and getting the calls right (note: the replay is not being used for balls and strikes, nor should it. And any reasonable baseball fan would agree that this part of the game cannot be reviewed. I think the unreasonable baseball fans - yes, I'll pick on these traditionalists once more - were the only ones worried about balls and strikes being a reviewable item)

However, I believe it should be the start of many changes that need to take place across baseball - from attitude adjustments to the way statistics are perceived and much more.

In no particular order, here are some other much-needed baseball-related items that need to get reviewed and refined for the 21st century:

1.  Pitchers with hurt feelings (i.e. bitchers) - One of the pet peeves I've started to develop this year is the whiny pitcher (i.e. the pitcher who hits a guy because the hitter or one of his teammates got too excited about a home run or stared a little too long at the ball as it left the park). I would like to remove this part of the game, as well as other pointless beanball wars that serve no purpose other than get about 60 guys to run onto the field and pretend to fight. If you are a pitcher who allows a home run, you should be more mad that you allowed the home run than the guy who happens to enjoy what he just did to you (especially if it's a guy who hits about 3-4 home runs a year - he really can't act like he's been there if he only does it once every other month). This also goes for pitchers who get mad when a guy tries to bunt or steal when his team happens to be up by a decent lead late in the game. With baseball being one of the only untimed major sport (with its unit of time being "outs"), a team can theoretically come back from a huge deficit with almost 90% of the game complete a lot easier than other sports. This fact and this fact alone makes it perfectly ok for the Rickey Hendersons of baseball to keep running and bunting from Inning 1 till the end, no matter the score. After all, it's not as if the home run hitters stop trying to hit home runs, so why so mad at the bunters?
   
   Quit your bitching, pitchers. If you don't want guys celebrating or succeeding at bunts/steals late in games, how about you pitch better? Try that on for size and get back to me.
   
2. A new way of looking at statistics - He may rub some people the wrong way, but Brian Kenny is on to something when he presents his points to #KillTheWin (that is, the individual stat of a pitcher win) and bringing advanced statistics to the attention of the average baseball fan, who has grown up with the same stat lines that have been used for the last five generations of baseball players. Like the game itself, statistics have evolved into telling more of a complete story about players, which players may carry more value than realized, and which ones may be considered over-rated due to the static use of old-school baseball stats to judge players. I consider Kenny and Joe Peta, author of Trading Bases, to be among the tops in helping bring attention to this subject. I have been watching a lot more MLB Network this year and have noticed that some broadcasts have started to incorporate some of these new ways of judging players (like on-base percentage, slugging, OBP to name a few) into a player's normal stat line as he comes up to bat. In ten years, I believe that graphics that we see both at the games and on TV will look a lot different and incorporate this new age of baseball analysis.
   
   
   
3. Designated Hitter in Both Leagues - While the DH rule started as an experiment in the American League four decades ago, it brought a lot more offense to the league in general. Not only that, but it extended the careers of guys who could still hit but could not really do much else (see Paul Molitor, Edgar Martinez and Frank Thomas, among many examples). This offense has made the American League into the "hitter's league", and what do chicks like to see? As Greg Maddux can attest to, they dig the long ball. Meanwhile, in the other league, dingers by DHs give way to sacrifice bunts and double switches, which National League backers think makes the NL better for some damn reason (hint: it's not that hard to do a double switch - bring in specialist, put him in batting spot where a recent hitter was stationed in the order, and take that particular hitter out of the game for another guy who can take the pitcher's spot in the order). While I enjoy a well-pitched game more than most, I believe that these elite pitchers should have to face a line-up full of at least average hits. Some pitchers can swing the stick well, but not enough to make me think that pitchers should continue to hit.
   
4. Traditional doubleheaders - I can't believe I'm including something that was once traditional into my list of things that MLB needs to bring back, but I think that each team should have a couple of scheduled doubleheaders on their schedule, for old-time sake. And I'm not talking about those bogus day-night doubleheaders where they clear the stadium in between games. I'm talking about the way it used to be when baseball had no lights and they had to fit in all games during the daylight hours of summer. Let's start some of these games on get-away days at noon, then follow that up with a second game to give fans a chance to watch two games on the same day. You might say that this would not hold the attention of today's baseball fan, and I may not be able to argue that. However, if it's only a couple times a year that these teams have to do it, what's the harm in giving these fans two games for the price of one? My friend and his family attended the longest doubleheader in history between Cleveland and Chicago in the last week of June, and he seemed to enjoy himself (without alcohol on top of it).  Let's make this happen MLB.
   
5. Retractable roofs for all - You say that this would be too expensive for some teams to do? Yeah, you're probably right. But this is make-believe/ideal baseball world according to Brian, so let's say that this is a possibility in every team's budget. Baseball is a sport, like football, that is meant to be enjoyed outdoors. Unlike its pigskin counterpart, it needs the ideal conditions (no ridiculous rain/snow storms) in order to function. For those random weather issues, every stadium's retractable roof can be closed to keep baseball indoors and prevent any rain delays that seem to hold up a handful of games per week. This year more than ever, it seems like a lot of these games are not being called, but played after a 3 or 4 hour delay. Instead of dealing with these delays, let's skip that process and put up the dome for these occasions. Advanced weather forecasts should be able to tell you when bad weather will play a factor into a game, so close the dome ahead of time if it looks like a storm should be hitting around the 4th or 5th inning.

I'm sure I have a few more suggestions, but these are just a few that I've had in mind recently. What changes would you propose for review by the MLB's top brass?

The Unemployment Chronicles Chapter 3: Running for Sanity

It's been about a month since I gave an update on my unemployment goings-on, unfortunately because there has not been much to update.

There has been a few leads here and there, resumes submitted for this and that, but no major bites. In that time, I attended a social event of HIMSS professionals (i.e. people that are in the healthcare industry that I've been associated with for the past six years in some form). I did meet some great people there, including a few who I've spoken to or connected via LinkedIn since the event. One position would have allowed me to branch my writing off into subject matters involving healthcare and consulting-related matters, but would have been part-time had the opportunity not fell apart. While there were no other positions at that organization available for hire, I will make sure to keep in touch with these folks, who were a joy to speak to both in person and on the phone.

Then last week, a friend recommended that I submit my resume for some positions at his organization. The best part of the organization? Their focus on sports data. I received an email back and was informed that the job would be part-time (32 hours/week) and would have no benefits. I'm still in touch with this guy, although it would be hard to take a job with no benefits. If it fits into my schedule, should I decide to go this route, I would look into one of my old jobs (covering sports at the high school level) once or twice a week - this is something I'm still thinking about.

I've also been offered the chance to write for a couple of people who have recently-launched sports-based websites. Like the other opportunity above, this is something I am thinking about - I'm thinking I will do something of this nature since I have still yet to launch a website of my own and would really like to spread my writing to more outlets.

My new running kicks. These, along w/some Chuck Taylors, will soon be part of my shoe rotation

All the while, one thing I have had to make sure to keep up with is my workout routine, specifically my running regimen. Fit Happens ended on July 1, so every bit of energy spent running around the neighborhood has been to maintain the healthier lifestyle that I created for myself in the prior six months (somewhat related to all of this - a nice surprise that Jen gave to me when we went out to dinner the evening I was officially unemployed included giving me a $100 gift card to Zappo's - so I just got myself a new pair of running shoes that I can't wait to break in). This, along with my girlfriend and great network of friends and family, has kept me sane during my unemployment. It's been a battle in itself cutting out unnecessary and/or costly expenses over the past month and a half like ordering delivery and drinking at bars, the latter which will be difficult to deter myself from doing should I be watching more football at random places this fall. So far this summer, I haven't really gone out much outside of Wednesdays after bowling - the drinking occasions with Jen and her co-workers have been quite sparse (or I'm just not aware of these occasions) considering that we've had some decent weather. Then again, we've started to get busy pretty much every weekend, so that helps with the bar cutback.

Wherever I end up work-wise, one thing I am going to have to adjust to better than I did the last time I got hired at a new job is maintaining the positive momentum of my healthier lifestyle. That means I will either have to do my runs in the morning or get in the habit of running after work (assuming I don't get a job at home like I had before). Or perhaps it will be better for me to join a gym, as the weather will be getting crappy in Chicago before you know it. Outside of the brief hot spell we had about a month or so ago, this has been great weather to run around my Logan Square/Bucktown neighborhood. Winters can be rather unpredictable, so an affordable gym might be what the fat loss doctor ordered.

Until next time, keep enjoying the summer. I hope to have more updates on some of these fronts soon. Also, expect some more football blogs coming up.

And remember, nobody cares about your fantasy football team.

A Pastime Past my Time: Reliving My Baseball Youth Through a Different Lens

In the last 48 hours, I experienced different sides of a baseball diamond just like I was 12 or 13 years old again.

Sunday brought about a group of 11 "gentlemen" (I use this word loosely) playing 12" softball for a couple hours, while a day later had me, Jen, her friend Megan & her boyfriend Russ partaking in a White Sox/Yankees game.

There were just a few differences in each of these experiences than my teenage days.

In the case of Brian (Age 30) v. softball, the ball won. And I think it beat most of us "old" bastards, based on the lack of skill, speed, power and coordination that many of us displayed. Unlike days past, which featured mammoth blasts and amazing catches, this particular day saw guys eating hamburgers on the field and hot dogging on the base paths. There were very few plays which showed any skill or grace. My only moment in the sun (one which burned both of my arms and neck) was tracking down a ball about 35 yards away from me in full-sprint mode, finishing it off with a Louganis-like dive to make the catch.

However, being the "old man's diamond experience" blog here, this couldn't come without injury. About 10 minutes after we finished playing, I felt a groin injury develop. It didn't last long luckily, but the fact that it even occurred made me realize how different sports experiences would be after the age of 30, especially if I go years without playing these sports. Whether it be some extra stretching, warming up or practice, I will need to treat these activities differently when I play in the near future.


And as far as the ole ball game with the White Sox and Yankees goes, Brian (Age 30) has a much different look towards the game than Brian (Age 13) did. Age 30 lives in a sports fandom culture that is now aware of all the cheating going on in sports. Where as with football where performance-enhancers are largely ignored by the general public, the cheaters in baseball have angered the fans, who supposedly want a clean, honest game. Age 30 Brian is so numb to it all that his favorite experience with the game lies mainly in the endless data mining that he does, as if he was 5 years old again, learning math at a very early age by trying to figure out a player's batting average. Watching the actual product and pretending to get angry at these players has no appeal to Brian Age 30. After all, the memories of the home run chase, as drug-induced as it might have been, produced real excitement and enjoyment in baseball fans everywhere. Hell, many of our favorite musicians would not have written the classics that you still listen to today without their own version of performance-enhancing drugs. Knowing that these guys in the past did PEDs doesn't influence how I felt at those moments of my sports-watching life. I may be in the minority with these feelings, but all these guys getting busted feels good on one hand (because they're weeding out the cheaters) but on another hand feels like a CD that can't get past that skip on Track 9 (worn out and annoying to hear).

I can no longer look at these guys as heroes, and to be honest, they never should have been my heroes. As we grow older, we realize these athletes are humans just like all of us. They cuss, drink, smoke, and have other bad vices (some worse than others) just like all of us. Putting these guys on a pedestal isn't fair to them, and it sure as hell isn't fair to the kids who buy their jerseys expecting these guys to be model citizens. Let's enjoy the game, and instead of expecting a $30M man being your kid's hero, how about you do what you can to make sure your kid looks at YOU that way instead?

So as I sat there, listening to the boos raining down on Alex Rodriguez in his first appearance of 2013, I had a lessened version of the above paragraphs in my head. A-Rod is days away from likely serving a suspensions through the end of the 2014 season (over 200 games), so people had to get their last shots in on him before he disappears onto his own island. I couldn't work up that same anger, as described above. I was observing kids around me and how they were reacting to the chorus of boos. Some emulated the people around them, while others weren't really sure how to react. If the Age 13 version of me lived in the Age 30 world I current inhabit, I would likely be in the latter category.

Think about it from a teenager's point of view: ever since you've been following baseball, all you have ever heard about on Sportscenter has been about guys taking drugs that makes their performance better. You hear all of the adults around you, whether they be on the sports shows you have watched or the adults (like your dad or uncles), who share a mix of anger, disappointment and resentment towards those guys who cheated over the past couple decades. You want to embrace the sport and the athletes who you try to emulate when in the batter's box in Pinto league, but how do you react when coming across this?

Between these two experiences, I realized that I will always love playing it while I can (in this case, it was 12" softball - same difference in this story) and following it. After all, the statistics, which I believe were largely responsible in my math abilities being so strong from an early age, will always be there. Even if the players playing it on the professional levels might not be clean, I will always have a special place in my heart for the game.

NFL Division by Division - Odds, Teams w/ Value & Pick

For about a month or so now, the wagering site 5dimes has had a variety of NFL odds up, including all of the divisions. If there's a story to be told from the division odds, it's that there is just as many hotly contested divisions as there is run-away winners (although we know that there's a good chance that one or two of these big favorites bombs out).

I wrote a season preview in June, which I have changed a little already and will slightly amend before the season starts.

Odds as of 8/3/13

NFC North

GB -155
Chi +373
Min +600
Det +625


Value: I think value lies in both Chicago & Detroit. The Bears were in the division race for much of 2012, and I am starting to believe that Marc Trestman will boost their offense to new heights this season. In Motown, you have a team that is a year removed from a playoff appearance. They've added Reggie Bush, who should fit into the pass-happy offense perfectly. And not having the distraction of Titus Young from the onset should help a big deal.


Pick: Chicago. I don't trust Green Bay's defense. Not that I expect them to be as terrible as they looked in their playoff loss to the Niners, but I don't know how far Rodgers can carry them by himself. Also, is this the year where Rodgers might miss some time due to injury? He escaped injury last year despite getting sacked 51 times (NFL high). If the offensive line doesn't improve, the Packers could be a hit away from being a 7-9 team.

I think the Bears will take a big step this season under Trestman, who has had a track record (both as an NFL coordinator & CFL coach) as a great offensive mind. The defense should still be solid enough to carry them (defensively last year: top 5 in yards/play & top 3 in points allowed).

NFC East

NYG +215
Dal +250
Wash +255
Phil +425


Value: Dallas. This is under the assumption that you believe that the Cowboys will be in the same position as they always seem to be the past couple years - a win away from winning the division, only to lose to the eventual NFC East champ. If that's the case (and you believe in history repeating itself), then backing Chip Kelly may be your best value, as his Eagles face the Cowboys in the Week 17 finale. In all honesty, the talent with Dallas always seems to be there. It's a matter of it all coming together.


Pick: NYG. This division seems to be as much of a toss-up as the odds indicate. Some might think the Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, but they still have a few playmakers that can thrive in a Chip Kelly system. I believe he's going to have a few wrinkles that open the eyes of his NFC East opponents. As far as my flipping of the proverbial four-sided coin, I think you'll see the Giants bounce back after a rough finish last season pushed them out of the playoffs. Cruz and a motivated Nicks (playing for his next contract, likely with another squad) will provide Eli all the weapons he needs, and David Wilson projects to fill in nicely for the departed Ahmad Bradshaw, assuming the former can learn to block and stay on the field. Why not the Redskins? I expect some regression, as this is what tends to happen with teams going from losing records to 10+ wins: (h/t Joe Fortenbaugh). Plus, RG3's health will always be a worry - he will have to learn when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk out of bounds.

NFC West

SF -105
Sea +110
Stl +925
Ari +3400

Value: By far, the best value in this division is St. Louis - might be the best value in NFL. Following a 4-1-1 campaign within the division last year, I believe the Rams will be just as tough (and will do better outside of the division than last year). If Bradford can maximize the talents of Tavon Austin and Richardson/Pead can fill the Stephen Jackson void, I don't see why they can't contend in this division (9-7/10-6 possible). The defense was middle-of-the-road last year, so any improvement there will help solidify this value.

Pick: San Francisco...although this might be more of a homer pick. Until Harbaugh doesn't win the NFC West, I will not pick against him. Seattle might be a smarter pick, but between both of these teams, they've lost a few playmakers that each was counting on for the 2013 season (Crabtree & Harvin). I can't wait to see these divisional match-ups. I will be intrigued to see how Wilson & Kaepernick will play as this is the first training camp that each of them entered as the unequivocal starter. Sophomore blues or sensations?

NFC South

Atl +150
NO +170
TB +525
Car +650

Value: Maybe I'm a sucker for the second year in a row, but I think the Panthers once again have great value. They finished the season strong (wins in last 4 games) and were top 10 in yards per play and top half in yards allowed per play. Cam Newton looks to build on a deceptively good sophomore campaign (I say deceptive because based on all the critiques he got from the media, you would never know he finished with 3800+ passing yards, 700+ rushing & combined 27 TDs). Their success will be tied into how well their defense plays - I think they'll play well enough to be a 10 win team and make the playoffs.

Pick: New Orleans. Two words sell this pick for me - Sean Payton. I have New Orleans back to their machine-like ways (and I think they'll be respectable on defense). I think Atlanta will take a step back (9 or 10 wins). I have Carolina as a surprise playoff team. I'm not a believer in Tampa - perhaps Freeman, Jackson, Martin & Revis will humble me.

AFC North

Pitt +170
Balt +230
Cin +235
Cle +770

Value and Pick: Cincinnati. Anyone who has been within earshot (or in the case of social media, within Twittershot) of me who watches football as much as me knows how high I am on Cincinnati this year. Why?

1. Defense - Geno Atkins has Defensive Player of the Year potential while the defense as a whole has top 3 potential. Atkins anchors the best defensive line in the division, a line which includes Michael Johnson (11.5 sacks) and Carlos Dunlap (6 sacks). They bring back a secondary that allowed the 7th-least passing yards. Their linebacking core added James Harrison, who has lost a step but could be a veteran presence that pushes the defense to greater success.
2. Weakened rivals - Baltimore will miss the leadership of Ray Lewis & Ed Reed on defense. Joe Flacco will desperately miss the absence of Anquan Boldin & Dennis Pitta (Boldin to free agency, Pitta to injury). These two guys caught half of Flacco's 22 passing TDs in the regular season and 7 of his 11 TDs in the postseason. Torrey Smith is a deep threat, but is he capable of making up for the missing Boldin/Pitta connections? Jacoby Jones had a good Super Bowl, but overall not a guy you want as your #2. And while many expect Pittsburgh to bounce back from a disappointing campaign, I'm not sold on their offense being able to do its share to win this division. Last year, they were in the bottom third in yards/play, thanks in large part to a 3.7 yards/carry. Will Le'Veon Bell help out? Perhaps, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to help.
3. Offense upgrades through the draft - Tyler Eifert will give Andy Dalton another tight end to throw it to (Jermaine Gresham being the other), which should help open up the field for A.J. Green. Giovani Bernard has a chance to take the running back reigns from Benjarvis Green-Ellis. Either way, both moves add much-needed depth to the offense.

Side note - it seems very weird to see Cleveland at such low odds (for them anyways), especially when their O/U is projected for only 6. I have Cleveland as another of my surprise teams (playoffs potentially), taking into mind the Norv Turner factor. He may have sucked ass as coach, but I think there can be a Wade Philips-like effect. Philips sucked as coach, but like Turner, has always thrived in a coordinator role. Take a look at the AFC and try to find me surefire picks for the playoffs. Outside of New England & Denver in weaker divisions, you can't.

AFC East

NE -425
Mia +400
NYJ +2000
Buf +2200

Value: None. If Miami was a little lower (like around +800/900), I would definitely suggest them as the value pick. Tannehill showed more promise in his first season than most people expected. While they lost Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller is the back that may be the fantasy sleeper of the year. Their defense will need to force more than 16 turnovers (4th lowest) if they wish to take away the AFC East crown from the Patriots.

Pick: New England. It is hard to forget about all of the distractions and injuries. It is also hard to forget that Tom Brady is starting the season without his top-5 receivers from last year. And that defense? Yikes. However, as long as Brady stays upright, the Patriots will take the division crown again. Expect career years from guys like Danny Amendola & Shane Vereen in the absence of these missing Brady targets.

AFC West

Den -380
SD +750
KC +800
Oak +2500

Value: San Diego. Earlier in the offseason, I may have considered Kansas City for this pick. I started to think about the moves made, and the one I did not consider for the best made was the Chargers firing Norv Turner in favor of Mike McCoy. Not only do you get rid of a coach who has historically under-achieved with top talent while in San Diego, but you hire a coordinator whose team just got done whipping you around in the division last year. Having a new voice in Philip Rivers' ears may help provide a resurgence in the veteran quarterback's career. Danny Woodhead will give him a receiving target out of the backfield, and a full year with Danario Alexander lining opposite of Malcom Floyd should propel the offense that was near the bottom of the league last year. Ryan Mathews can help with this cause if he can finally live up to his potential.

Pick: Denver. With all of the above being said, Denver is still the team to beat in this division. You saw what happened last year when they added a legitimate quarterback to the fold. Manning developed quick chemistry with Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker. I am curious to see how the offensive line injuries, particularly at center, will affect Manning's performance. For now, I don't see a reason to downgrade them out of their well-deserved division favorite status.

AFC South

Hou -265
Indy +270
Ten +875
Jax +3300

Value: None. Like the Dolphins, I'm not seeing good value at the Colts' current odds. They went 11-5 last year despite being outscored by 30 points. Their comeback wins severely masked their horrible defense (T-2nd worst 6.0 yards/play, only behind the Saints). And even their offense wasn't as efficient as advertised - bottom third in the league in yards per play (5.2 yards/play). While Andrew Luck should improve and is likely to be a perennial Pro Bowler, I just don't see how there isn't severe regression with the Colts this year. I'm smelling 6-10/7-9.

Neither the Titans nor the Jaguars are worthy of many words in this section.

Pick: Houston. They may have a problem advancing past the AFC Division Round, but Houston is the class of this division for the third year in a row. Arian Foster may see less carries, but he and Ben Tate will still provide the ground-and-pound attack for the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins will be a nice addition to the offense. And the defense, which was already solid, got smarter with the addition of Ed Reed. I can see this being the type of move that gets Houston past the AFC threshold and into the Super Bowl.