Baseballog - A Quick Look through the 2011 Divisions

Adam Troy Dunn:
The newest face of the Chicago White Sox. I'm expecting a solid OBP, 41 HRs and of course, lots of K's.

Time to get my 2011 predictions put out there in stone and see how they turn out. With each division, I'm gonna go through the best value in the division (according to BookMaker's odds for each division) and then give my pick for the division.

AL East

Best value: Tampa Bay +1000: I know they lost a bunch of big stars via free agency and trades, but their minor league system is loaded. For 10/1 odds, considering they've won their division 2 out of the past 3 years, I'd take my chances.
Winner: Boston -200: I imagine the Yanks pitching staff will improve by July through some trades, but for now, I'll take my chances with Boston. I wouldn't want to lay this much on the dollar for them to win the division though. I think they are slightly over-valued.

AL Central

Best value: Minnesota +160: Chi/Det/Min are jumbled up, with Chicago the slight favorite on the site. When it comes to the AL Central, I err on the side of Minnesota.
Winner: Minnesota: See my last comment. They always seem to pull it out. I'll obviously be rooting for Chicago, but the first tenth of this century has been a Minnesota-led division. Chicago is my Wild Card

AL West

Best value: Los Angeles Angels +300: I don't remember them making any outstanding offseason moves, but any team managed by Mike Scioscia has a fighting chance. They're a few years removed from their better years, but it's worth a shot.
Winner: Texas -160: So the Rangers decided to keep Feliz as the closer, which I think is the right move for now. I don't see the Angels or A's overtaking the Rangers in this division. Lineup is still solid, but the loss of Cliff Lee would be the reason they'd lose this division (if they do). He'd impact their win total by 5-7 games at least.

NL East

Best value: Florida +1000: Another team that usually tends to rebuild well on the fly. They got a lot of solid prospects that are major league worthy around some proven players. Josh Johnson is a legit Cy Young candidate.
Winner: Atlanta +200: This is my semi-shocker of the predictions. I like the direction Atlanta is going in, and I think Philly will fall short of the high expectations placed upon them. People forget how average Oswalt and Hamels have been in the past couple years in spurts, although Oswalt did close last year out very well. Philly is my Wild Card. They'll still be good, don't get me wrong.

NL Central

Best value: Chicago +370: They closed the 2010 season off well with Quade, who the players seemed to get a jolt of energy from with his tireless work ethic and no-BS attitude. His handling of the Silva problem was perfect. I think Chicago does better with lower expectations, so wouldn't shock me to see them make a run for the division crown.
Winner: Milwaukee +215:  I like the staff they have in Milwaukee. Marcum's been an under-rated guy in Toronto, and as long as Greinke doesn't miss too much time, I like their chances. Prince is playing for a new contract. And anytime a guy like Braun has an underachieving year with a .304 average, 25 HR and 103 RBIs, you know you got a great player on your hands.

NL West

Best value: SD +1800: They are an offseason removed from almost winning the division. I know they traded away their best hitter, but I think they have enough pitching on their staff to keep them competitive.
Winner: SF even money: Posey entering his first full season must adjust to the changes that pitchers will make on him. That's usually how sophomore slumps develop- the pitchers adjusting to you quicker than you adjusting to them. I think he will avoid it. Solid pitching staff 1-thru-5 makes the WS champs the pick ahead of Colorado.

PLAYOFFS:

Phil over Mil, SF over Atlanta/ Phil over SF in NL
Chi over Bos, Tex over Min/ Chi over Tex in AL

WS: Phil over Chi

Yes, I got two wild cards in the World Series. Phil will probably win the NL East, but in MLB, it doesn't really matter how you make the playoffs anyways. Whether they win the NL East or not, I think their pitching is the best equipped to win in a 7 game series. However, Philly's +220 to win the whole thing is a little too low for me to bet. Chicago's +2100 to win it all has great value in my opinion. And trust me, this isn't a homer talking. Everyone expects Bost vs. Phil, but how often in baseball do we get the chalk teams to make it to the series? Baseball is too much of a crapshoot on a daily basis, so why not take a crapshoot of a shot on Chicago's odds to win it all.

I'd like to hear your predictions. I will write a follow-up blog in November about this and see how bad these predictions are.

Opening Day and great weather is right around the corner!


Below text, added 4-10-11:

Evaluating a baseball season 2 weeks into it is like analyzing your Calculus grade before you even get the syllabus. I did take a quick look at the division/World Series odds on some of my expected winners/sleepers to see how they changed. Some of the highlights:

Best value in the AL East, Tampa Bay Rays, is now +3000 to win the division. They've started out just god awful- marred with injuries to Longoria, suspensions-turned-retirements with Manny (not like he was gonna do much this year) and various other things I don't feel like looking up. Sam Fuld did just make one of the most amazing catches I've ever seen against the Sox, and he should be fun to watch the rest of the year. But I think there was a reason the Rays were +1000 the year after winning a division title- because they suck.

Winner in AL East, Boston, is now -110. This would have been the value that I would have bought them at to start the year, not the number I found them at initially. They are still slight favorites over the Yanks, who are -105. Overall- my analysis of the East looks shitty to start.

AL Central- Odds not changed much. I never did post this online, but I bet the White Sox $20 to win $420 (21/1 odds) to win the World Series. Today, they are 25/1. Must be that bullpen that scares the shit out of people from backing them now.

AL West- Texas has now become an much higher favorite due to their strong start (-220). This looks like my most solid prediction out of the 6 divisions so far. Not like it took a rocket scientist to predict it though.

NL Central- Haven't really been following most of the NL that closely, but the Cubs' odds fell to +275, so that must mean I would have had value in Cubs +375 for the division (shrug).

NL East- I still like the odds I got (hypothetically) with the Braves, and this shows with them falling to +170 to win the division. Marlins (my sleeper) rose to +1500.

NL West- Again, not much change here with odds. Giants are getting positive back on the dollar now (+110), which I think has great value. If their 5 man rotation stays healthy the entire year, I think they clinch this division with a week to spare.

Derrick Rose MVP: Just Say No



SURGEON GENERAL WARNING: Voting against Derrick Rose may give athletes in Orlando, Boston/Miami and Los Angeles lung cancer, emphysema and birth defects in future children.


Everyone and their mother who is involved in the NBA MVP voting process seems to be leaning towards anointing Derrick Rose as the league's most valuable player. While I don't disagree with their logic based on a statistical perspective, I believe that Chicago fans would be better served rooting for D Rose to not be named MVP. Before you throw me under a bus or ask for my immediate castration, hear me out:

Imagine this scenario: middle of May, conference semifinals, Bulls hosting the Magic in game 5, up 3 games to 1. Dwight Howard has just accepted the MVP a few nights earlier in front of tens of thousands of screaming Magic fans.

Let's peak inside the mind of Derrick Rose in recent games the Bulls have played, in which an element of revenge was on his mind:

vs. Kings at home in 09-10 season: Kings beat the Bulls 102-98 after being down by as many as 35 points. Clearly the lowest point of Rose's 2+ year career in regular season play.
vs Kings at home in 10-11 season, March 21st: Bulls make sure not to let a 35 point lead go to waste this time, romping the Kings 135-95. Rose only needs to play 28 minutes, scoring 18 and dishing out 8 asts in the process.

@Atlanta, March 2nd: Bulls blow a huge halftime lead, lose 83-80 to the Hawks, Rose (12 points, 12 assists, 5-for-21 shooting)
vs. Atlanta, March 11th: Bulls run away with a 94-76 win at home. Rose (34 points, 5 asts, 9-for-24 shooting- definitely not great, but his 14-for-15 from FT was)
@Atlanta (the true revenge game), March 22nd: Bulls 114, Hawks 81. Rose vows a letdown won't happen in Atlanta again, and he lives up to his word. 30 points, 10 asts and a much much better 11-for-20 from the field.

Now fast forward two months, and just picture the element of revenge that Rose would have in mind if he wasn't named MVP. Guys like Rose don't need a reason to play good, because they are already great to begin with. But give them an extra edge, just like the days where someone would diss Jordan only to have him tear team's hearts out of their asses, and watch out.

Even better would be if Lebron won the MVP. If the Heat are to get by the Celtics (assuming the current seedings hold up), no doubt would Rose want to show the world in front of the Big Three Stooges that he is the most deserving of MVP.

I'm not saying Rose doesn't deserve the MVP or shouldn't win it (because he probably will), but wouldn't you rather see Derrick Rose with an extra edge in the playoffs?

An MVP wouldn't make Rose complacent by any means, but not winning it, he'd deliver an even bigger "F You" in May/June basketball performances for the ages.

So Bulls fans of all ages, in the words of Nancy Reagan: "Just Say No". But this time, instead of drugs, just say no to Derrick Rose for MVP. I'd love to see his reaction to this occurrence.

Yes and No

Hanging out with some of my classmates tonight made me realize that...while I'm looking forward to graduating from my 38 week program at ICB, I'm definitely gonna miss the 3 times a week where I get to laugh with the dozen+ people that I've gotten to know throughout our 114 classes. Everyone always has the clichéd "We became best friends through school" stuff, but this is actually my first decent-sized group of friends I've made in a school and feel like I will keep. Elementary school friends I can count on one hand as far as the one's I've even talked to in the past year. Junior high, about the same. High school- I know a lot of people, see them a lot around town (usually at local pubs), but never really connected with many of them. And first college (U of I)- I talk to one person from there. Maybe it's just my personality, or maybe I just never cared (for the most part) about the people around me in a learning setting. With these folks, something about them that makes me think this will be different.

We just finished our last project (music videos). We had a blast making ours. I love the editing stuff, and wouldn't mind pursuing something in that (at the very least I'd like to keep doing it recreationally). It'll probably all hit us around April 19th when there's no class scheduled on a Tuesday for the first time in 10 months, but it's starting to hit me a little now. The true test of any friendship formed at a specific place (work or school) is when one or both parties leave that particular setting for good. I believe once this setting is left, the personal bonds we've made will continue on. Maybe I'll be wrong, but just a gut feeling.

So in essence, Yes- I am looking forward to moving on and graduating the program in hopes of using my video editing skills obtained here. No- I am not looking forward to the lacking daily interaction between all of my peeps.

Let's make these last 3 weeks count folks. I'm already missing you guys.

Stairway to 2011

April 1st is around the corner, which roughly marks the start of the 2nd quarter of the year. It also marks the start of my brief demise last year after battling some personal issues. As I said during that stretch, sometimes you need to hit rock bottom before you climb your way back up. I'm hoping that personal rock bottom was achieved, because ever since I got back on my feet fully in mid July (the start of school and a new job), I've been heading up for the most part. This applies especially in 2011. Some personal achievements:

(1) Approaching the end of my 10 month program with the Illinois Center for Broadcasting and I've figured out what I want to apply for- video editing positions. I know there's plenty for me to learn about editing still, but I know I can get better and have been getting better with each assignment.

(2) I was able to meet my company at Tango2 (a consulting company) for the first time in my 9 months on the job in Puerto Rico. As many of you saw through pictures, I was able to enjoy 4 days in awesome weather, which played a part in all of the company mingling and getting to know each other for the first time. This trip will make me work harder to get my co-workers more work in health systems.

(3) Our bowling team won the 1st half championship and can clinch first place money by winning 2nd half. With my new bowling ball, I have improved my average by 7 pins in 9 weeks of bowling (172 to 179) by averaging over 190 in that span. Likewise, much of my team is making awesome strides and getting better as the season progresses. The worst we can finish for this session is 2nd place.

(4) To cap off an awesome weekend which was primarily based at Tim Wolfs and included the company of many of my great friends from the past 12 years, I was able to enjoy the company of one of my best friends (Spence) and his/our friends this past week as part of Mr. Spencer's bachelor party. Whenever a group of friends can get together after a long hiatus, it reminds you of the great past you have had as friends and what a great fortune it is to have great friends to share your future with.

(5) I continue to meet and be introduced to awesome people. Unlike some people who grow older and close off the expansion of their friend base, I love meeting new people and striking up conversation with whoever is willing to listen to my loud voice. To those I've met recently that have become part of my daily rotation of conversation, I'm glad we've met and I hope we continue to get to know each other.

(6) Our family took in a foreign exchange student about a month ago. I must admit at first, I didn't know what to think about a new person living in our house for three months. However, Maria has been nothing but a delight to have around. It's nice being able to pick the brain of someone who is experiencing American culture for the first time. Someday, I'd like to think I'll come up in stories in Columbia where a Spanish to English translation of  "I have no idea why Brian had so much gas" comes up.

That's about all I got for now. I hope you read it and enjoy.

All I know is that the first quarter of this year has proven to be awesome and will only continue to get better.

Thanks to everyone for contributing to the above and I hope we continue to share awesome times together.

Brian Scalabrine: The White Mamba

Seriously, who the hell owns a Scalabrine jersey?

No truth to the rumor that he got the # 24 for the number of minutes he plans on playing this year.

Why did I waste $75 on a jersey from a guy who has played 18 games out of 65+ team games and averages about 3-4 minutes a game?

I've fallen hard for the White Mamba, as Stacey King has nicknamed him. Get to about the 20 second mark of the video to see it.

I've also heard his nickname from the guys on 670am, The Score, call him The Human Victory Cigar. This nickname implies that he comes in during garbage time and helps wrap up victories. Lately, that has been the case. In his last 8 appearances, the Bulls have won all 8. Out of the last 7 games, Scal has played a total of 11 minutes and 39 seconds. That's roughly a minute and a half per game appearance.

Is someone other than Scalabrine himself wearing his jersey? What has this world come to?
Even Scalabrine would wear a Rose jersey if it was legal in the NBA rules.

And to give you some perspective, Scal has only played 6 total games in the 2011 calendar year. For how good the Bulls have been lately and with games getting out of hand late occasionally, I'm surprised he hasn't been used more.

In case you were wondering, basketball-reference.com has assessed Scal's chances of making the Hall of Fame at 0.0000%. Sorry if that ruins anything for you. I think kids learn about his HOF chances before they learn about Santa, the Easter Bunny and other shameless corporate symbols.

In contrast, his black counterpart, the Black Mamba (Kobe Bryant) was one of two current players with 100.00% chance of making it (Shaq was the other).

I still wonder why I got the jersey, but then today I was reminded of why I bought it. Classmates and authority figures alike felt the power of the Scal jersey. I can't say I blame them. Look at how much sexier I look with it on:

Oozing machismo right here. His jersey sales are gonna go up 2000% after this blog reaches about 7 people.
Buy the man's jersey, people! You can't get any better looking without one.