Week 8 Picks Go Here

Week 8 Picks
TB +6.5 (-106) - (1.59 to win 1.50) & TB +7 - (0.55 to win 0.5) - L (-2.14)
Det -3 (-110) - (1.65 to win 1.50) - L (-1.65)
NYG +5.5 (-106) - (1.06 to win 1.0) & ML (+208) - (0.5 to win 1.04) - W (+2.04)
Cle +7.5 (-110) - (1.10 to win 1.0), +7 (+102) - (0.5 to win 0.51) - W & ML (+300) - (0.8 to win 2.4) - L (net of +0.74)
Cin -6 (-110) - (2.20 to win 2.00) - W (+2.00)
Oak +2.5 (-105) - (1.575 to win 1.50) & ML (+118) - (0.5 to win (0.59) - W (+2.09)
Min +3.5 2H (-108) - 1.08 to win 1.00 - L  (-1.08)
Seattle Team Total Under 28.5 - 1.545 to win 1.50 - W (+1.50

(5-4, +3.47)


*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 

Week 1: (6-3, +4.14)

Week 2: (4-4, +0.582)

Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)

Week 4: (7-4, +2.955)

Week 5: (4-5, -2.595)

Week 6: (6-4, +2.555)

Week 7: (4-5, +0.32)

Week 8: (5-4, +3.47)

YTD: (39-32, +11.639)


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

Fun With Baseball: Franchise Postseason Stats Since 2000

Here's a breakdown of every MLB franchise's record and games played in the post season since 2000 (entering the World Series):

Teams Games Team Wins Team Win % 1 NYY 116 1 NYY 62 1 Mia 0.647059 2 StL 106 2 StL 58 2 CWS 0.631579 3 Bos 67 3 Bos 41 3 Bos 0.61194 4 SF 56 4 SF 34 4 SF 0.607143 5 Det 48 5 Phil 27 5 Phil 0.586957 6 Phil 46 6 Det 25 6 NYM 0.583333 7 LAA 45 7 LAA 21 7 StL 0.54717 8 Atl 39 8 Tex 18 8 NYY 0.534483 9 Oak 37 9 Ariz 16 9 Col 0.533333 10 Tex 34 10 Oak 15 10 Tex 0.529412 11 LAD 33 11 LAD 14 11 Det 0.520833 12 Ariz 32 12 NYM 14 12 Ariz 0.5 13 TB 30 13 Atl 13 13 Pitt 0.5 14 Hou 29 14 TB 13 14 Balt 0.5 15 Min 27 15 Hou 13 15 Sea 0.473684 16 NYM 24 16 CWS 12 16 Cle 0.470588 17 CWS 19 17 Mia 11 17 LAA 0.466667 18 Sea 19 18 Sea 9 18 Hou 0.448276 19 CHC 18 19 Cle 8 19 TB 0.433333 20 Cle 17 20 Col 8 20 LAD 0.424242 21 Mia 17 21 Min 6 21 Oak 0.405405 22 Mil 15 22 CHC 6 22 Mil 0.4 23 Col 15 23 Mil 6 23 Wash 0.4 24 Cin 9 24 Pitt 3 24 Atl 0.333333 25 SD 7 25 Balt 3 25 CHC 0.333333 26 Pitt 6 26 Cin 2 26 Min 0.222222 27 Balt 6 27 Wash 2 27 Cin 0.222222 28 Wash 5 28 SD 1 28 SD 0.142857 29 KC 0 29 KC 0 29 KC N/A 30 Tor 0 30 Tor 0 30 Tor N/A

(Miami stats include time as Florida Marlins)

(Washington stats include time as Montreal Expos)

Fun Notes:

• Florida Marlins are the only team to win a World Series in this time period and have that be the franchise's only postseason wins/appearance. They had 100% of their postseason wins and games in this time period come in 2003, when they won the World Series. 
• If you include the one game playoff in 2012 as a series, Atlanta has lost 9 of its 10 postseason series.
• Detroit has the most playoff wins w/o a World Series title in this time period (25).
• Three teams have more WINS in postseason play than the Cubs and White Sox do TOTAL GAMES...COMBINED in this time frame.
• In its seven ALDS appearances from 2000-2013, Oakland lost in a deciding 5th game in six of them.

NFL Week 8 - Breakdown By The Numbers

Car at TB

Car O: 5.1 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game
TB D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.8 plays/game

TB O: 4.5 yards/play (T-worst); 66.3 plays/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game


SF at Jax

SF O: 5.5 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game
Jax D: 5.8 yards/play; 67.1 plays/game

Jax O: 4.5 yards/play (T-worst); 63 plays/game
SF D: 5.1 yards/play; 64.4 plays/game


Cle at KC

Cle O: 4.6 yards/play; 68.4 plays/game
KC D: 4.8 yards/play (T-4); 63.71 plays/game

KC O: 4.9 yards/play; 67.3 plays/game
Cle D: 4.5 yards/play (T-best); 70.3 plays/game


Mia at NE

Mia O: 5.1 yards/play; 60.8 plays/game
NE D: 5.0 yards/play; 70.1 plays/game

NE O: 4.8 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game
Mia D: 5.4 yards/play; 69.5 plays/game


Buf at NO

Buf O: 4.7 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game
NO D: 5.6 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game

NO O: 5.9 yards/play; 67.2 plays/game
Buf D: 5.2 yards/play; 73 plays/game


Dal at Det

Dal O: 5.8 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game
Det D: 6.3 yards/play (2nd worst); 63.1 plays/game

Det O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.7 plays/game
Dal D: 5.7 yards/play; 69.1 plays/game


NYG at Phil

NYG O: 5.3 yards/play; 62.1 plays/game
Phil D: 5.7 yards/play; 72.7 plays/game

Phil O: 6.2 yards/play (3rd); 69.1 plays/game
NYG D: 5.1 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game


Pit at Oak

Pit O: 5.4 yards/play; 61 plays/game
Oak D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.8 plays/game

Oak O: 5.3 yards/play; 61 plays/game
Pit D: 5.0 yards/play; 61.8 plays/game


NYJ at Cincy

NYJ O: 5.1 yards/play; 66.9 plays/game
Cin D: 5.0 yards/play; 67 plays/game

Cin O: 5.5 yards/play; 65.6 plays/game
NYJ D: 4.6 yards/play (3rd); 66.3 plays/game


Atl at Ari

Atl O: 6.1 yards/play; 61.5 plays/game
Ari D: 5.2 yards/play; 66.8 plays/game

Ari O: 4.9 yards/play; 63.0 plays/game
Atl D: 5.8 yards/play; 62.8 plays/game


Wash at Den

Wash O: 6.0 yards/play; 69 plays/game
Den D: 5.9 yards/play; 67.4 plays/game

Den O: 6.6 yards/play (best); 71.2 plays/game
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play(4th worst); 63.3 plays/game


GB at Min

GB O: 6.5 yards/play (2nd); 66.7 plays/game
Min D: 5.4 yards/play; 72.3 plays/game

Min O: 5.1 yards/play; 62.5 plays/game
GB D: 5.4 yards/play; 63.7 plays/game


Sea at StL

Sea O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.7 plays/game
StL D: 5.9 yards/play; 63.4 plays/game

StL O: 4.8 yards/play; 62.7 plays/game
Sea D: 4.5 yards/play (T-best); 62.4 plays/game

Playoff Payoff: Will the New NCAA Committee Process Work for College Football?

While many college football fans are giddy for the BCS system of deciding a national title to be over and done with at the end of this season thanks to a 4-team playoff, they should be very careful on what they ask for.

Isn't the Playoff Committee that has been assembled just a smaller version of the voters/computers that have helped decide the title game in the BCS era? The 13-person committee consists of former players, coaches, and even a former Secretary of State. Do you honestly think that fans of teams in the BCS hunt are going to believe in the legitimacy of these people, who I presume have either all gone to universities with football or are currently in a position of power at an NCAA institution (or at the very least, have had a strong rooting interest in a particular team)?

For instance, one of the committee members is Tom Osborne. Do you think a fan of a PAC-12 team (let's say Oregon) will respect the opinion of the committee if one year, Nebraska (Osborne's former team) somehow edges out the Ducks for a chance to play in the playoff?

And what about the 5th best team in the nation (or 9th best in an 8-team playoff, etc.)? You think fans of bubble teams and the media talk too much/complain about the teams that don't make the March Madness tourney...and multiply it by about a hundred. With March Madness, 68 teams out of 351 NCAA teams make "the playoffs", including 37 "at-large" teams who fail to win their conference tournament (or conference in the case of the Ivy League), you have 19.3% of teams represented in the tourney....and you still have people complaining about a 19-14 team not making the tournament over a 21-12 team with perhaps a slightly less strong resume. Many fans don't subscribe to my theory of "if you've put yourself in that position of being considered a 'bubble team', then you can't complain if they don't make it," and I don't see that changing for the football version, which will initially have 4 of its 124 teams (as of this year), or just over 3% of the teams. Even if you make it 8 teams, it's still a significantly smaller percentage of teams in there as there are in March Madness. And w/ NCAA football arguably having a stronger hold over the country than basketball, imagine how ugly some of those message boards (which are ugly enough without the playoff) will be if the playoff committee slights their team's prospects of a chance at the BCS title. Imagine how much time ESPN and other sports media organizations will spend on the teams that didn't make it.

If we use the final records of teams in the top 15 of the BCS standings (the final standings before the bowl games) as a basis for the teams likely to be considered in the Top-8 discussion (assuming they eventually go to the 8-team format), here are the records of all the teams from the past 5 years (before their eventual bowl game):

2008: 12-0 teams (2)*; 12-1 (3); 11-1 (4); 11-2 (1); 10-2 (2); 9-3 (3) - 9 teams with 1 loss or less
2009**: 13-0 teams (3); 12-0 (2); 12-1 (1); 11-2 (1); 10-2 (5); 9-3 (3) - 6 teams with 1 loss or less
2010: 13-0 teams (1); 12-0 (2); 12-1 (1); 11-1 (5); 11-2 (2); 10-2 (3); 9-3 (1) - 9 teams with 1 loss or less
2011: 13-0 teams (1); 11-1 (4); 11-2 (2); 10-2 (5); 10-3 (2); 9-3 (1) - 5 teams with 1 loss or less
2012: 12-0 teams (2)***; 12-1 (1); 11-1 (3); 11-2 (3); 10-2 (5); 9-3 (1) - 6 teams with 1 loss or less

(stats above do not include any teams with these records outside of the top 15 of the final BCS standings before the bowls)

*neither of these teams (Utah and Boise State) even finished in the top 6 of the rankings and had no shot in hell of making the BCS title game.
**Of the 5 undefeated teams at the end of the year, only Alabama and Texas - the title game participants - received 1st place votes at the end of the season. 
***Ohio State was not eligible for the title game due to NCAA sanctions 

Week 7 Picks Go Here

Week 7 Picks (So Far)
Ariz +6 (-107) - 2.14 to win 2.0 - L
Sea/Ariz Under 38 (+135) - 0.5 to win 0.675 - L
Cin +2.5 (+100) - 1.0 to win 1.0 & +2.5 (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.0 (total of 2.05 to win 2.0
Car -6 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1.0 & -7 (-113) - 1.13 to win 1.0)
Mia -7 (-120) - 1.8 to win 1.5
Ten +3.5 (-110) - 2.2 to win 2.0
Indy +6.5 (-108) - 2.16 to win 2.0
Den/Indy Under 55 (-104) - 1.04 to win 1.0
Min/NYG Under 48 (-109) - 2.18 to win 2.0

(4-5, +0.32)


*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 

Week 1: (6-3, +4.14)

Week 2: (4-4, +0.582)
Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)
Week 4: (7-4, +2.955)
Week 5: (4-5, -2.595)
Week 6: (6-4, +2.555)
Week 7: (4-5, +0.32)

YTD: (34-28, +8.169)


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

NFL Week 7 - Breakdown by Numbers

Instead of doing this over Twitter through 15 different tweets, I figured this would be a better way to do it. I like to look at these numbers to see if there's any value on certain teams or which teams may be over-rated.

(Stats gathered from pro-football-reference.com)

(To view offense yards/play rank)
(To view defense yards/play rank)


Seattle at Arizona (Thursday night)

Sea O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game
Ari D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.3 plays/game

Ari O: 5.2 yards/play; 61.8 plays/game
Sea D: 4.7 yards/play (T-3rd); 61.2 plays/game

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

TB O: 4.5 yards/play; 64.6 plays/game
Atl D: 6.2 yards/play; 60.4 plays/game

Atl O: 6.0 yards/play; 65.0 plays/game
TB D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.8 plays/game

Chicago at Washington

Chi O: 6.0 yards/play; 62 plays/game
Wash D: 6.0 yards/play; 65.6 plays/game

Wash O: 5.9 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game
Chi D: 6.1 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game

Dallas at Philly

Dal O: 5.9 yards/play; 59 plays/game
Phil D: 5.8 yards/play; 72.3 plays/game

Phil O: 6.6 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game
Dal D: 6.1 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game

New England at NY Jets

NE O: 4.9 yards/play; 71.7 plays/game
NYJ D: 4.6 yards/play (2nd); 65.7 plays/game

NYJ O: 5.3 yards/play; 63.2 plays/game
NE D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.0 plays/game

Buffalo at Miami

Buf O: 4.8 yards/play; 72 plays/game
Mia D: 5.6 yards/play; 70.2 plays/game

Mia O: 5.3 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game
Buf D: 5.3 yards/play; 74.5 plays/game

San Diego at Jacksonville

SD O: 6.1 yards/play; 65.7 plays/game
Jax D: 5.7 yards/play; 67.2 plays/game

Jax O: 4.2 yards/play (worst); 63.7 plays/game
SD D: 6.4 yards/play; 60 plays/game

St. Louis at Carolina

StL O: 4.7 yards/play (3rd worst); 63.3 plays/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play; 60.4 plays/game

Car O: 5.1 yards/play; 66.4 plays/game
StL D: 6.0 yards/play; 64.5 plays/game

Cincinnati at Detroit

Cin O: 5.2 yards/play; 68 plays/game
Det D: 6.1 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game

Det O: 5.6 yards/play; 67 plays/game
Cin D: 4.8 yards/play; 65.5 plays/game

San Francisco at Tennessee

SF O: 5.5 yards/play; 60.8 plays/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.2 plays/game

Ten O: 4.8 yards/play; 63.5 plays/game
SF D: 4.9 yards/play; 65.7 plays/game

Houston at Kansas City

Hou O: 5.3 yards/play; 74.3 plays/game
KC D: 4.9 yards/play; 53.5 plays/game

KC O: 5.1 yards/play; 57 plays/game
Hou D: 4.7 yards/play (T-3rd); 54.3 plays/game

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Balt O: 4.9 yards/play; 68.8 plays/game
Pitt D: 5.0 yards/play; 62 plays/game

Pitt O: 5.4 yards/play; 62.2 plays/game
Balt D: 5.4 yards/play; 65.3 plays/game

Cleveland at Green Bay

Cle O: 4.8 yards/play; 68.5 plays/game
GB D: 5.9 yards/play; 62.8 plays/game

GB O: 6.7 yards/play (T-best); 66.8 plays/game
Cle D: 4.4 yards/play (best); 71 plays/game

Denver at Indianapolis

Den O: 6.7 yards/play (T-best); 71.3 plays/game
Ind D: 5.4 yards/play; 62.5 plays/game

Ind O: 5.6 yards/play; 61.7 plays/game
Den D: 6.1 yards/play (T-3rd worst); 66.8 plays/game

Minnesota at NY Giants (Monday Night)

Min O: 5.5 yards/play; 61.4 plays/game
NYG D: 5.4 yards/play; 72 plays/game

NYG O: 5.6 yards/play; 60.3 plays/game
Min D: 5.8 yards/play; 72.2 plays/game

One Ring, No Problem: How Peyton Escapes the Critiques that Face Other QBs

A dreary February night in Miami six years ago ended with the Indianapolis Colts downing the Chicago Bears 29-17 to claim their franchise's first Lombardi Trophy since moving to Indianapolis.

More than that, it was a night that has saved Peyton Manning from incredible amounts of scorn from media and fans alike. For if Peyton's Colts failed to win that game and his career continues on the same trajectory (a Super Bowl loss to New Orleans and another playoff bye week failure with Denver last year), he may be facing the same heat that the likes of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler do anytime they throw a game-changing interception (Romo) or look like they're faking injury, pouting, and don't care about the result of their team's biggest game of the season (Cutler), and all of the critiques that any quarterback without a ring face on a consistent basis.

The past few days of watching NFL Network and other sports programs has shown the echo chamber that exists with Tony Romo, whose 500 yards and 5 TDs might as well have been 0 yards and 0 touchdowns when his interception late in the fourth quarter set up the Denver Broncos for what would be the game-winning field goal in a 51-48 shoot-out. The narrative of Romo as a choker continues, much to the delight of the public and media, as it is an easy story to write and an easy, lazy sound bite for any NFL analyst to claim. The Dallas defense allowed 517 yards (albeit against the NFL's most prolific offense), and maybe the fact that Denver's offense is so strong is one reason why the way Dallas got torn up (as other Denver opponents have) has absolved them from blame. But not to give them any blame, but instead put it all, 100 percent, on the back of a guy making one mistake...why divert from the narrative now?

So back to the opening paragraph...if the results of the Super Bowl XLI weren't so kind to Peyton Manning, who will likely own every significant passing record when he retires (assuming he plays a few more years), how would everyone view him? Would we continue to make the same excuses I've heard from other people when defending Peyton (i.e. that it's harder to win a title as one great player in NFL than it is in the NBA, despite the fact that certain players are treated as the sole reason a team loses despite the game featuring 43 other starting players playing in 130+ total plays)?

On one hand, you can't tell me that Peyton (a 9-11 postseason record) should be excused for only winning one title because football is a game with 21 other starters that affect the outcome of winning and losing, and then in the same breath tell me that Tony Romo (or any other quarterback that the public/media like to rip constantly) is completely to blame for any close loss that his team incurs.

When Peyton lost his last Super Bowl appearance (a 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints), he was fortunate to escape blame for the pick-6 he threw in the final minutes of the game when the Colts were in position to potentially tie the game. Part of it was due to the fact that Manning has a ring, but the overall narrative leading up to the game (the Saints' success following the post-Katrina devastation) was probably the leading cause for Manning blame to escape the media critiquing rounds.

If the Broncos fail to win the Super Bowl this season, does Peyton still get a pass from everyone? He might, and it has to do with the ring in 2007. Imagine a 15-year career like Peyton's with no rings - what would we say then?