Car at TB
Car O: 5.1 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game
TB D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.8 plays/game
TB O: 4.5 yards/play (T-worst); 66.3 plays/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game
SF at Jax
SF O: 5.5 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game
Jax D: 5.8 yards/play; 67.1 plays/game
Jax O: 4.5 yards/play (T-worst); 63 plays/game
SF D: 5.1 yards/play; 64.4 plays/game
Cle at KC
Cle O: 4.6 yards/play; 68.4 plays/game
KC D: 4.8 yards/play (T-4); 63.71 plays/game
KC O: 4.9 yards/play; 67.3 plays/game
Cle D: 4.5 yards/play (T-best); 70.3 plays/game
Mia at NE
Mia O: 5.1 yards/play; 60.8 plays/game
NE D: 5.0 yards/play; 70.1 plays/game
NE O: 4.8 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game
Mia D: 5.4 yards/play; 69.5 plays/game
Buf at NO
Buf O: 4.7 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game
NO D: 5.6 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game
NO O: 5.9 yards/play; 67.2 plays/game
Buf D: 5.2 yards/play; 73 plays/game
Dal at Det
Dal O: 5.8 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game
Det D: 6.3 yards/play (2nd worst); 63.1 plays/game
Det O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.7 plays/game
Dal D: 5.7 yards/play; 69.1 plays/game
NYG at Phil
NYG O: 5.3 yards/play; 62.1 plays/game
Phil D: 5.7 yards/play; 72.7 plays/game
Phil O: 6.2 yards/play (3rd); 69.1 plays/game
NYG D: 5.1 yards/play; 71.4 plays/game
Pit at Oak
Pit O: 5.4 yards/play; 61 plays/game
Oak D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.8 plays/game
Oak O: 5.3 yards/play; 61 plays/game
Pit D: 5.0 yards/play; 61.8 plays/game
NYJ at Cincy
NYJ O: 5.1 yards/play; 66.9 plays/game
Cin D: 5.0 yards/play; 67 plays/game
Cin O: 5.5 yards/play; 65.6 plays/game
NYJ D: 4.6 yards/play (3rd); 66.3 plays/game
Atl at Ari
Atl O: 6.1 yards/play; 61.5 plays/game
Ari D: 5.2 yards/play; 66.8 plays/game
Ari O: 4.9 yards/play; 63.0 plays/game
Atl D: 5.8 yards/play; 62.8 plays/game
Wash at Den
Wash O: 6.0 yards/play; 69 plays/game
Den D: 5.9 yards/play; 67.4 plays/game
Den O: 6.6 yards/play (best); 71.2 plays/game
Wash D: 6.1 yards/play(4th worst); 63.3 plays/game
GB at Min
GB O: 6.5 yards/play (2nd); 66.7 plays/game
Min D: 5.4 yards/play; 72.3 plays/game
Min O: 5.1 yards/play; 62.5 plays/game
GB D: 5.4 yards/play; 63.7 plays/game
Sea at StL
Sea O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.7 plays/game
StL D: 5.9 yards/play; 63.4 plays/game
StL O: 4.8 yards/play; 62.7 plays/game
Sea D: 4.5 yards/play (T-best); 62.4 plays/game
10/18/2013
Playoff Payoff: Will the New NCAA Committee Process Work for College Football?
While many college football fans are giddy for the BCS system of deciding a national title to be over and done with at the end of this season thanks to a 4-team playoff, they should be very careful on what they ask for.
Isn't the Playoff Committee that has been assembled just a smaller version of the voters/computers that have helped decide the title game in the BCS era? The 13-person committee consists of former players, coaches, and even a former Secretary of State. Do you honestly think that fans of teams in the BCS hunt are going to believe in the legitimacy of these people, who I presume have either all gone to universities with football or are currently in a position of power at an NCAA institution (or at the very least, have had a strong rooting interest in a particular team)?
For instance, one of the committee members is Tom Osborne. Do you think a fan of a PAC-12 team (let's say Oregon) will respect the opinion of the committee if one year, Nebraska (Osborne's former team) somehow edges out the Ducks for a chance to play in the playoff?
And what about the 5th best team in the nation (or 9th best in an 8-team playoff, etc.)? You think fans of bubble teams and the media talk too much/complain about the teams that don't make the March Madness tourney...and multiply it by about a hundred. With March Madness, 68 teams out of 351 NCAA teams make "the playoffs", including 37 "at-large" teams who fail to win their conference tournament (or conference in the case of the Ivy League), you have 19.3% of teams represented in the tourney....and you still have people complaining about a 19-14 team not making the tournament over a 21-12 team with perhaps a slightly less strong resume. Many fans don't subscribe to my theory of "if you've put yourself in that position of being considered a 'bubble team', then you can't complain if they don't make it," and I don't see that changing for the football version, which will initially have 4 of its 124 teams (as of this year), or just over 3% of the teams. Even if you make it 8 teams, it's still a significantly smaller percentage of teams in there as there are in March Madness. And w/ NCAA football arguably having a stronger hold over the country than basketball, imagine how ugly some of those message boards (which are ugly enough without the playoff) will be if the playoff committee slights their team's prospects of a chance at the BCS title. Imagine how much time ESPN and other sports media organizations will spend on the teams that didn't make it.
If we use the final records of teams in the top 15 of the BCS standings (the final standings before the bowl games) as a basis for the teams likely to be considered in the Top-8 discussion (assuming they eventually go to the 8-team format), here are the records of all the teams from the past 5 years (before their eventual bowl game):
2008: 12-0 teams (2)*; 12-1 (3); 11-1 (4); 11-2 (1); 10-2 (2); 9-3 (3) - 9 teams with 1 loss or less
2009**: 13-0 teams (3); 12-0 (2); 12-1 (1); 11-2 (1); 10-2 (5); 9-3 (3) - 6 teams with 1 loss or less
2010: 13-0 teams (1); 12-0 (2); 12-1 (1); 11-1 (5); 11-2 (2); 10-2 (3); 9-3 (1) - 9 teams with 1 loss or less
2011: 13-0 teams (1); 11-1 (4); 11-2 (2); 10-2 (5); 10-3 (2); 9-3 (1) - 5 teams with 1 loss or less
2012: 12-0 teams (2)***; 12-1 (1); 11-1 (3); 11-2 (3); 10-2 (5); 9-3 (1) - 6 teams with 1 loss or less
(stats above do not include any teams with these records outside of the top 15 of the final BCS standings before the bowls)
*neither of these teams (Utah and Boise State) even finished in the top 6 of the rankings and had no shot in hell of making the BCS title game.
**Of the 5 undefeated teams at the end of the year, only Alabama and Texas - the title game participants - received 1st place votes at the end of the season.
***Ohio State was not eligible for the title game due to NCAA sanctions
Isn't the Playoff Committee that has been assembled just a smaller version of the voters/computers that have helped decide the title game in the BCS era? The 13-person committee consists of former players, coaches, and even a former Secretary of State. Do you honestly think that fans of teams in the BCS hunt are going to believe in the legitimacy of these people, who I presume have either all gone to universities with football or are currently in a position of power at an NCAA institution (or at the very least, have had a strong rooting interest in a particular team)?
For instance, one of the committee members is Tom Osborne. Do you think a fan of a PAC-12 team (let's say Oregon) will respect the opinion of the committee if one year, Nebraska (Osborne's former team) somehow edges out the Ducks for a chance to play in the playoff?
And what about the 5th best team in the nation (or 9th best in an 8-team playoff, etc.)? You think fans of bubble teams and the media talk too much/complain about the teams that don't make the March Madness tourney...and multiply it by about a hundred. With March Madness, 68 teams out of 351 NCAA teams make "the playoffs", including 37 "at-large" teams who fail to win their conference tournament (or conference in the case of the Ivy League), you have 19.3% of teams represented in the tourney....and you still have people complaining about a 19-14 team not making the tournament over a 21-12 team with perhaps a slightly less strong resume. Many fans don't subscribe to my theory of "if you've put yourself in that position of being considered a 'bubble team', then you can't complain if they don't make it," and I don't see that changing for the football version, which will initially have 4 of its 124 teams (as of this year), or just over 3% of the teams. Even if you make it 8 teams, it's still a significantly smaller percentage of teams in there as there are in March Madness. And w/ NCAA football arguably having a stronger hold over the country than basketball, imagine how ugly some of those message boards (which are ugly enough without the playoff) will be if the playoff committee slights their team's prospects of a chance at the BCS title. Imagine how much time ESPN and other sports media organizations will spend on the teams that didn't make it.
If we use the final records of teams in the top 15 of the BCS standings (the final standings before the bowl games) as a basis for the teams likely to be considered in the Top-8 discussion (assuming they eventually go to the 8-team format), here are the records of all the teams from the past 5 years (before their eventual bowl game):
2008: 12-0 teams (2)*; 12-1 (3); 11-1 (4); 11-2 (1); 10-2 (2); 9-3 (3) - 9 teams with 1 loss or less
2009**: 13-0 teams (3); 12-0 (2); 12-1 (1); 11-2 (1); 10-2 (5); 9-3 (3) - 6 teams with 1 loss or less
2010: 13-0 teams (1); 12-0 (2); 12-1 (1); 11-1 (5); 11-2 (2); 10-2 (3); 9-3 (1) - 9 teams with 1 loss or less
2011: 13-0 teams (1); 11-1 (4); 11-2 (2); 10-2 (5); 10-3 (2); 9-3 (1) - 5 teams with 1 loss or less
2012: 12-0 teams (2)***; 12-1 (1); 11-1 (3); 11-2 (3); 10-2 (5); 9-3 (1) - 6 teams with 1 loss or less
(stats above do not include any teams with these records outside of the top 15 of the final BCS standings before the bowls)
*neither of these teams (Utah and Boise State) even finished in the top 6 of the rankings and had no shot in hell of making the BCS title game.
**Of the 5 undefeated teams at the end of the year, only Alabama and Texas - the title game participants - received 1st place votes at the end of the season.
***Ohio State was not eligible for the title game due to NCAA sanctions
10/15/2013
Week 7 Picks Go Here
Week 7 Picks (So Far)
Ariz +6 (-107) - 2.14 to win 2.0 - L
Sea/Ariz Under 38 (+135) - 0.5 to win 0.675 - L
Cin +2.5 (+100) - 1.0 to win 1.0 & +2.5 (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.0 (total of 2.05 to win 2.0
Car -6 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1.0 & -7 (-113) - 1.13 to win 1.0)
Mia -7 (-120) - 1.8 to win 1.5
Ten +3.5 (-110) - 2.2 to win 2.0
Indy +6.5 (-108) - 2.16 to win 2.0
Den/Indy Under 55 (-104) - 1.04 to win 1.0
Min/NYG Under 48 (-109) - 2.18 to win 2.0
(4-5, +0.32)
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
Ariz +6 (-107) - 2.14 to win 2.0 - L
Sea/Ariz Under 38 (+135) - 0.5 to win 0.675 - L
Cin +2.5 (+100) - 1.0 to win 1.0 & +2.5 (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.0 (total of 2.05 to win 2.0
Car -6 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1.0 & -7 (-113) - 1.13 to win 1.0)
Mia -7 (-120) - 1.8 to win 1.5
Ten +3.5 (-110) - 2.2 to win 2.0
Indy +6.5 (-108) - 2.16 to win 2.0
Den/Indy Under 55 (-104) - 1.04 to win 1.0
Min/NYG Under 48 (-109) - 2.18 to win 2.0
(4-5, +0.32)
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
Week 2: (4-4, +0.582)
Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)
Week 4: (7-4, +2.955)
Week 5: (4-5, -2.595)
Week 6: (6-4, +2.555)
Week 7: (4-5, +0.32)
Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)
Week 4: (7-4, +2.955)
Week 5: (4-5, -2.595)
Week 6: (6-4, +2.555)
Week 7: (4-5, +0.32)
YTD: (34-28, +8.169)
Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)
Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)
10/14/2013
NFL Week 7 - Breakdown by Numbers
Instead of doing this over Twitter through 15 different tweets, I figured this would be a better way to do it. I like to look at these numbers to see if there's any value on certain teams or which teams may be over-rated.
(Stats gathered from pro-football-reference.com)
(To view offense yards/play rank)
(To view defense yards/play rank)
Seattle at Arizona (Thursday night)
Sea O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game
Ari D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.3 plays/game
Ari O: 5.2 yards/play; 61.8 plays/game
Sea D: 4.7 yards/play (T-3rd); 61.2 plays/game
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
TB O: 4.5 yards/play; 64.6 plays/game
Atl D: 6.2 yards/play; 60.4 plays/game
Atl O: 6.0 yards/play; 65.0 plays/game
TB D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.8 plays/game
Chicago at Washington
Chi O: 6.0 yards/play; 62 plays/game
Wash D: 6.0 yards/play; 65.6 plays/game
Wash O: 5.9 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game
Chi D: 6.1 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game
Dallas at Philly
Dal O: 5.9 yards/play; 59 plays/game
Phil D: 5.8 yards/play; 72.3 plays/game
Phil O: 6.6 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game
Dal D: 6.1 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game
New England at NY Jets
NE O: 4.9 yards/play; 71.7 plays/game
NYJ D: 4.6 yards/play (2nd); 65.7 plays/game
NYJ O: 5.3 yards/play; 63.2 plays/game
NE D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.0 plays/game
Buffalo at Miami
Buf O: 4.8 yards/play; 72 plays/game
Mia D: 5.6 yards/play; 70.2 plays/game
Mia O: 5.3 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game
Buf D: 5.3 yards/play; 74.5 plays/game
San Diego at Jacksonville
SD O: 6.1 yards/play; 65.7 plays/game
Jax D: 5.7 yards/play; 67.2 plays/game
Jax O: 4.2 yards/play (worst); 63.7 plays/game
SD D: 6.4 yards/play; 60 plays/game
St. Louis at Carolina
StL O: 4.7 yards/play (3rd worst); 63.3 plays/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play; 60.4 plays/game
Car O: 5.1 yards/play; 66.4 plays/game
StL D: 6.0 yards/play; 64.5 plays/game
Cincinnati at Detroit
Cin O: 5.2 yards/play; 68 plays/game
Det D: 6.1 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game
Det O: 5.6 yards/play; 67 plays/game
Cin D: 4.8 yards/play; 65.5 plays/game
San Francisco at Tennessee
SF O: 5.5 yards/play; 60.8 plays/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.2 plays/game
Ten O: 4.8 yards/play; 63.5 plays/game
SF D: 4.9 yards/play; 65.7 plays/game
Houston at Kansas City
Hou O: 5.3 yards/play; 74.3 plays/game
KC D: 4.9 yards/play; 53.5 plays/game
KC O: 5.1 yards/play; 57 plays/game
Hou D: 4.7 yards/play (T-3rd); 54.3 plays/game
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Balt O: 4.9 yards/play; 68.8 plays/game
Pitt D: 5.0 yards/play; 62 plays/game
Pitt O: 5.4 yards/play; 62.2 plays/game
Balt D: 5.4 yards/play; 65.3 plays/game
Cleveland at Green Bay
Cle O: 4.8 yards/play; 68.5 plays/game
GB D: 5.9 yards/play; 62.8 plays/game
GB O: 6.7 yards/play (T-best); 66.8 plays/game
Cle D: 4.4 yards/play (best); 71 plays/game
Denver at Indianapolis
Den O: 6.7 yards/play (T-best); 71.3 plays/game
Ind D: 5.4 yards/play; 62.5 plays/game
Ind O: 5.6 yards/play; 61.7 plays/game
Den D: 6.1 yards/play (T-3rd worst); 66.8 plays/game
Minnesota at NY Giants (Monday Night)
Min O: 5.5 yards/play; 61.4 plays/game
NYG D: 5.4 yards/play; 72 plays/game
NYG O: 5.6 yards/play; 60.3 plays/game
Min D: 5.8 yards/play; 72.2 plays/game
(Stats gathered from pro-football-reference.com)
(To view offense yards/play rank)
(To view defense yards/play rank)
Seattle at Arizona (Thursday night)
Sea O: 5.7 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game
Ari D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.3 plays/game
Ari O: 5.2 yards/play; 61.8 plays/game
Sea D: 4.7 yards/play (T-3rd); 61.2 plays/game
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
TB O: 4.5 yards/play; 64.6 plays/game
Atl D: 6.2 yards/play; 60.4 plays/game
Atl O: 6.0 yards/play; 65.0 plays/game
TB D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.8 plays/game
Chicago at Washington
Chi O: 6.0 yards/play; 62 plays/game
Wash D: 6.0 yards/play; 65.6 plays/game
Wash O: 5.9 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game
Chi D: 6.1 yards/play; 61.3 plays/game
Dallas at Philly
Dal O: 5.9 yards/play; 59 plays/game
Phil D: 5.8 yards/play; 72.3 plays/game
Phil O: 6.6 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game
Dal D: 6.1 yards/play; 68.2 plays/game
New England at NY Jets
NE O: 4.9 yards/play; 71.7 plays/game
NYJ D: 4.6 yards/play (2nd); 65.7 plays/game
NYJ O: 5.3 yards/play; 63.2 plays/game
NE D: 5.2 yards/play; 67.0 plays/game
Buffalo at Miami
Buf O: 4.8 yards/play; 72 plays/game
Mia D: 5.6 yards/play; 70.2 plays/game
Mia O: 5.3 yards/play; 60.2 plays/game
Buf D: 5.3 yards/play; 74.5 plays/game
San Diego at Jacksonville
SD O: 6.1 yards/play; 65.7 plays/game
Jax D: 5.7 yards/play; 67.2 plays/game
Jax O: 4.2 yards/play (worst); 63.7 plays/game
SD D: 6.4 yards/play; 60 plays/game
St. Louis at Carolina
StL O: 4.7 yards/play (3rd worst); 63.3 plays/game
Car D: 5.0 yards/play; 60.4 plays/game
Car O: 5.1 yards/play; 66.4 plays/game
StL D: 6.0 yards/play; 64.5 plays/game
Cincinnati at Detroit
Cin O: 5.2 yards/play; 68 plays/game
Det D: 6.1 yards/play; 64.8 plays/game
Det O: 5.6 yards/play; 67 plays/game
Cin D: 4.8 yards/play; 65.5 plays/game
San Francisco at Tennessee
SF O: 5.5 yards/play; 60.8 plays/game
Ten D: 5.3 yards/play; 63.2 plays/game
Ten O: 4.8 yards/play; 63.5 plays/game
SF D: 4.9 yards/play; 65.7 plays/game
Houston at Kansas City
Hou O: 5.3 yards/play; 74.3 plays/game
KC D: 4.9 yards/play; 53.5 plays/game
KC O: 5.1 yards/play; 57 plays/game
Hou D: 4.7 yards/play (T-3rd); 54.3 plays/game
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Balt O: 4.9 yards/play; 68.8 plays/game
Pitt D: 5.0 yards/play; 62 plays/game
Pitt O: 5.4 yards/play; 62.2 plays/game
Balt D: 5.4 yards/play; 65.3 plays/game
Cleveland at Green Bay
Cle O: 4.8 yards/play; 68.5 plays/game
GB D: 5.9 yards/play; 62.8 plays/game
GB O: 6.7 yards/play (T-best); 66.8 plays/game
Cle D: 4.4 yards/play (best); 71 plays/game
Denver at Indianapolis
Den O: 6.7 yards/play (T-best); 71.3 plays/game
Ind D: 5.4 yards/play; 62.5 plays/game
Ind O: 5.6 yards/play; 61.7 plays/game
Den D: 6.1 yards/play (T-3rd worst); 66.8 plays/game
Minnesota at NY Giants (Monday Night)
Min O: 5.5 yards/play; 61.4 plays/game
NYG D: 5.4 yards/play; 72 plays/game
NYG O: 5.6 yards/play; 60.3 plays/game
Min D: 5.8 yards/play; 72.2 plays/game
10/10/2013
One Ring, No Problem: How Peyton Escapes the Critiques that Face Other QBs
A dreary February night in Miami six years ago ended with the Indianapolis Colts downing the Chicago Bears 29-17 to claim their franchise's first Lombardi Trophy since moving to Indianapolis.
More than that, it was a night that has saved Peyton Manning from incredible amounts of scorn from media and fans alike. For if Peyton's Colts failed to win that game and his career continues on the same trajectory (a Super Bowl loss to New Orleans and another playoff bye week failure with Denver last year), he may be facing the same heat that the likes of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler do anytime they throw a game-changing interception (Romo) or look like they're faking injury, pouting, and don't care about the result of their team's biggest game of the season (Cutler), and all of the critiques that any quarterback without a ring face on a consistent basis.
The past few days of watching NFL Network and other sports programs has shown the echo chamber that exists with Tony Romo, whose 500 yards and 5 TDs might as well have been 0 yards and 0 touchdowns when his interception late in the fourth quarter set up the Denver Broncos for what would be the game-winning field goal in a 51-48 shoot-out. The narrative of Romo as a choker continues, much to the delight of the public and media, as it is an easy story to write and an easy, lazy sound bite for any NFL analyst to claim. The Dallas defense allowed 517 yards (albeit against the NFL's most prolific offense), and maybe the fact that Denver's offense is so strong is one reason why the way Dallas got torn up (as other Denver opponents have) has absolved them from blame. But not to give them any blame, but instead put it all, 100 percent, on the back of a guy making one mistake...why divert from the narrative now?
So back to the opening paragraph...if the results of the Super Bowl XLI weren't so kind to Peyton Manning, who will likely own every significant passing record when he retires (assuming he plays a few more years), how would everyone view him? Would we continue to make the same excuses I've heard from other people when defending Peyton (i.e. that it's harder to win a title as one great player in NFL than it is in the NBA, despite the fact that certain players are treated as the sole reason a team loses despite the game featuring 43 other starting players playing in 130+ total plays)?
On one hand, you can't tell me that Peyton (a 9-11 postseason record) should be excused for only winning one title because football is a game with 21 other starters that affect the outcome of winning and losing, and then in the same breath tell me that Tony Romo (or any other quarterback that the public/media like to rip constantly) is completely to blame for any close loss that his team incurs.
When Peyton lost his last Super Bowl appearance (a 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints), he was fortunate to escape blame for the pick-6 he threw in the final minutes of the game when the Colts were in position to potentially tie the game. Part of it was due to the fact that Manning has a ring, but the overall narrative leading up to the game (the Saints' success following the post-Katrina devastation) was probably the leading cause for Manning blame to escape the media critiquing rounds.
If the Broncos fail to win the Super Bowl this season, does Peyton still get a pass from everyone? He might, and it has to do with the ring in 2007. Imagine a 15-year career like Peyton's with no rings - what would we say then?
More than that, it was a night that has saved Peyton Manning from incredible amounts of scorn from media and fans alike. For if Peyton's Colts failed to win that game and his career continues on the same trajectory (a Super Bowl loss to New Orleans and another playoff bye week failure with Denver last year), he may be facing the same heat that the likes of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler do anytime they throw a game-changing interception (Romo) or look like they're faking injury, pouting, and don't care about the result of their team's biggest game of the season (Cutler), and all of the critiques that any quarterback without a ring face on a consistent basis.
The past few days of watching NFL Network and other sports programs has shown the echo chamber that exists with Tony Romo, whose 500 yards and 5 TDs might as well have been 0 yards and 0 touchdowns when his interception late in the fourth quarter set up the Denver Broncos for what would be the game-winning field goal in a 51-48 shoot-out. The narrative of Romo as a choker continues, much to the delight of the public and media, as it is an easy story to write and an easy, lazy sound bite for any NFL analyst to claim. The Dallas defense allowed 517 yards (albeit against the NFL's most prolific offense), and maybe the fact that Denver's offense is so strong is one reason why the way Dallas got torn up (as other Denver opponents have) has absolved them from blame. But not to give them any blame, but instead put it all, 100 percent, on the back of a guy making one mistake...why divert from the narrative now?
So back to the opening paragraph...if the results of the Super Bowl XLI weren't so kind to Peyton Manning, who will likely own every significant passing record when he retires (assuming he plays a few more years), how would everyone view him? Would we continue to make the same excuses I've heard from other people when defending Peyton (i.e. that it's harder to win a title as one great player in NFL than it is in the NBA, despite the fact that certain players are treated as the sole reason a team loses despite the game featuring 43 other starting players playing in 130+ total plays)?
On one hand, you can't tell me that Peyton (a 9-11 postseason record) should be excused for only winning one title because football is a game with 21 other starters that affect the outcome of winning and losing, and then in the same breath tell me that Tony Romo (or any other quarterback that the public/media like to rip constantly) is completely to blame for any close loss that his team incurs.
When Peyton lost his last Super Bowl appearance (a 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints), he was fortunate to escape blame for the pick-6 he threw in the final minutes of the game when the Colts were in position to potentially tie the game. Part of it was due to the fact that Manning has a ring, but the overall narrative leading up to the game (the Saints' success following the post-Katrina devastation) was probably the leading cause for Manning blame to escape the media critiquing rounds.
If the Broncos fail to win the Super Bowl this season, does Peyton still get a pass from everyone? He might, and it has to do with the ring in 2007. Imagine a 15-year career like Peyton's with no rings - what would we say then?
Week 6 Picks go here
Week 6
NYG +7 (-102) - (1.53 to win 1.5) & +8 (-103) - 0.515 to win 0.5 - W
Hou -7 (-115) - (1.15 to win 1.00) - L
Pit +1.5 (-103) - (0.515 to win 0.5) & ML (+108) - (0.5 to win .54) - W
Car +2.5 (-105) - (1.575 to win 1.5) & ML (+117) - (0.5 to win 0.585) - W
GB -3 (+110) - (1.2 to win 1.32) - L
NE -3 (+110) - (1.2 to win 1.32) - PUSH & -2 (-106) - (0.848 to win 0.8) - W
Ten +13 (-107) - (1.605 to win 1.5) - W
Jax TT Over 13 (-110) - (1.10 to win 1.00) - W
Wash +5.5 (-102) - (1.02 to win 1) & ML (+215) - (0.5 to win 1.075) - L
SD TT Over 26.5 (+120) - (2 to win 2.40) - L
(6-4, +2.555)
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
NYG +7 (-102) - (1.53 to win 1.5) & +8 (-103) - 0.515 to win 0.5 - W
Hou -7 (-115) - (1.15 to win 1.00) - L
Pit +1.5 (-103) - (0.515 to win 0.5) & ML (+108) - (0.5 to win .54) - W
Car +2.5 (-105) - (1.575 to win 1.5) & ML (+117) - (0.5 to win 0.585) - W
GB -3 (+110) - (1.2 to win 1.32) - L
NE -3 (+110) - (1.2 to win 1.32) - PUSH & -2 (-106) - (0.848 to win 0.8) - W
Ten +13 (-107) - (1.605 to win 1.5) - W
Jax TT Over 13 (-110) - (1.10 to win 1.00) - W
Wash +5.5 (-102) - (1.02 to win 1) & ML (+215) - (0.5 to win 1.075) - L
SD TT Over 26.5 (+120) - (2 to win 2.40) - L
(6-4, +2.555)
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
Week 2: (4-4, +0.582)
Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)
Week 4: (7-4, +2.955)
Week 5: (4-5, -2.595)
Week 6: (6-4, +2.555)
Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)
Week 4: (7-4, +2.955)
Week 5: (4-5, -2.595)
Week 6: (6-4, +2.555)
YTD: (30-22, +7.849)
Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)
Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)
10/04/2013
The Week That Is (and Was) in Sports - (Sept 29 - Oct 5 Edition)
Random sports thoughts from the week that was and the weekend trickling in front of us:
1. Pittsburgh's "feel-good" story angle took a hit with me after their Wild Card win against the Reds to send them into the NLDS. While many American sports fans and media who aren't from Cincinnati were rooting on the Pirates to continue their magic carpet ride of a season for at least three more games, an incident at the stadium involving the wife of Reds pitcher Mat Latos being physically harassed by fans was largely ignored - to the point where you wonder if people are afraid of spoiling the narrative that the Pirates have created to this point.
There's several more tweets from her posted between October 1st and 2nd that you can search yourself. Most of the other tweets seem to be her defending herself from a bunch of classless people who assume she was "asking for it" or "looking for attention" by Tweeting about it so much.
A few things about this:
(a) There will be morons in any fan base, Pittsburgh or otherwise, that are a very small portion of the fans representing the team. One of the problems is that usually this small portion of fans is also the loudest (the drunken idiot yelling nonsensical obscenities at the ball game). Mrs. Latos stated in a tweet that she got an apology on behalf of a Pirates fan who was seemingly unrelated to the incident, so it's good that there was someone actually at the event that was supportive of her - potentially preventing mob mentality from setting in.
(b) The people who say she is looking for attention through Twitter crack me up. The beautiful thing is that none of them realize the irony of their statement - anyone that uses social media of any kind is looking for some level of attention. I didn't track any tweets from the people who critiqued Dallas for her "attention-seeking", but if their tweets are anything like mine, there's a lot of self-serving material on their feeds (my guess is they're not as funny or nice as me though). I saw a Pittsburgh shock jock (Mark Madden) getting into a war of words with her - oh so many beautiful ironies and stories to tell from this simple incident. Color me shocked.
2. What should have been a great week for Cleveland sports has a sour taste to it come Friday. This week in Cleveland sports started with the Browns downing the Bengals in relatively easy fashion, culminating with the Indians ending their regular season on a ten-game winning streak, closing out the Twins and advancing to host a one-game Wild Card playoff between the winner of the Rays/Rangers game the next day. Their World Series hopes were dashed a few days later when the Rays shut them down. On Thursday, the Browns took down the Buffalo Bills and moved their T-Rich-less winning streak to three games and have sole possession of the AFC North till at least Sunday afternoon. However, the quarterback that kick-started the winning streak and local product (Brian Hoyer) suffered an ACL injury that ended his season and put the signal caller reigns back into the shaky hands of Brandon Weeden - who actually didn't do so bad given the ugly-looking sequence of series that he had when entering the Thursday Night game.
While Cleveland as a whole should feel better about their prospects in all sports going forward (even in basketball, provided Kyrie Irving doesn't bail and they can continue building a decent core), "just getting there" or "getting better" will not be enough to heal the decades of wounds Cleveland sports fans have endured. The question is - what Cleveland team will be the next one to win a league title?
3. Speaking of titles, many people seem so quick to anoint the Super Bowl crown to the Denver Broncos. Yes, the Broncos have looked like a well-oiled machine in destroying their first four opponents so far, to the point where they are laying a touchdown or more (depending on what sports book you may use) as a road team heading into Dallas to face a consistently inconsistent Cowboys squad. But remember, the one many dub as the best quarterback to ever play the game, Peyton Manning, hasn't had the best track record in the playoffs (9-11), particularly when having a bye week entering the playoffs (2-4). If you want to argue that quarterback win/loss records are overblown, I won't completely disagree - many factors that a QB can't control go into a team's prospects of winning or losing. However, if you're going to give credit to him for how brilliant Peyton is while citing his regular season successes, you cannot deny the disappointment his teams have had in the postseason.
Also, let's not ignore the obvious angle that has occurred in the NFL playoffs - the emergence of a team playing in the Wild Card round that goes on a run and wins the Lombardi. Seven of the last eight Super Bowl match-ups have featured a team whose playoff run began in the Wild Card round versus a team who had a bye to start the playoffs, with the Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl six of those times (including Peyton's lone Super Bowl victory in 2007). And remember, this list of Super Bowl losers includes the seemingly invincible New England Patriots, whose lone loss in 2007-08 was in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants.
Beware the delicious fruit.
1. Pittsburgh's "feel-good" story angle took a hit with me after their Wild Card win against the Reds to send them into the NLDS. While many American sports fans and media who aren't from Cincinnati were rooting on the Pirates to continue their magic carpet ride of a season for at least three more games, an incident at the stadium involving the wife of Reds pitcher Mat Latos being physically harassed by fans was largely ignored - to the point where you wonder if people are afraid of spoiling the narrative that the Pirates have created to this point.
A huge man called me a cunt & said he was going to kick my ass so I told security. His chick is who threatened me & then attacked me.
— Dallas Latos (@DallasLatos) October 2, 2013
There's several more tweets from her posted between October 1st and 2nd that you can search yourself. Most of the other tweets seem to be her defending herself from a bunch of classless people who assume she was "asking for it" or "looking for attention" by Tweeting about it so much.
A few things about this:
(a) There will be morons in any fan base, Pittsburgh or otherwise, that are a very small portion of the fans representing the team. One of the problems is that usually this small portion of fans is also the loudest (the drunken idiot yelling nonsensical obscenities at the ball game). Mrs. Latos stated in a tweet that she got an apology on behalf of a Pirates fan who was seemingly unrelated to the incident, so it's good that there was someone actually at the event that was supportive of her - potentially preventing mob mentality from setting in.
(b) The people who say she is looking for attention through Twitter crack me up. The beautiful thing is that none of them realize the irony of their statement - anyone that uses social media of any kind is looking for some level of attention. I didn't track any tweets from the people who critiqued Dallas for her "attention-seeking", but if their tweets are anything like mine, there's a lot of self-serving material on their feeds (my guess is they're not as funny or nice as me though). I saw a Pittsburgh shock jock (Mark Madden) getting into a war of words with her - oh so many beautiful ironies and stories to tell from this simple incident. Color me shocked.
2. What should have been a great week for Cleveland sports has a sour taste to it come Friday. This week in Cleveland sports started with the Browns downing the Bengals in relatively easy fashion, culminating with the Indians ending their regular season on a ten-game winning streak, closing out the Twins and advancing to host a one-game Wild Card playoff between the winner of the Rays/Rangers game the next day. Their World Series hopes were dashed a few days later when the Rays shut them down. On Thursday, the Browns took down the Buffalo Bills and moved their T-Rich-less winning streak to three games and have sole possession of the AFC North till at least Sunday afternoon. However, the quarterback that kick-started the winning streak and local product (Brian Hoyer) suffered an ACL injury that ended his season and put the signal caller reigns back into the shaky hands of Brandon Weeden - who actually didn't do so bad given the ugly-looking sequence of series that he had when entering the Thursday Night game.
While Cleveland as a whole should feel better about their prospects in all sports going forward (even in basketball, provided Kyrie Irving doesn't bail and they can continue building a decent core), "just getting there" or "getting better" will not be enough to heal the decades of wounds Cleveland sports fans have endured. The question is - what Cleveland team will be the next one to win a league title?
3. Speaking of titles, many people seem so quick to anoint the Super Bowl crown to the Denver Broncos. Yes, the Broncos have looked like a well-oiled machine in destroying their first four opponents so far, to the point where they are laying a touchdown or more (depending on what sports book you may use) as a road team heading into Dallas to face a consistently inconsistent Cowboys squad. But remember, the one many dub as the best quarterback to ever play the game, Peyton Manning, hasn't had the best track record in the playoffs (9-11), particularly when having a bye week entering the playoffs (2-4). If you want to argue that quarterback win/loss records are overblown, I won't completely disagree - many factors that a QB can't control go into a team's prospects of winning or losing. However, if you're going to give credit to him for how brilliant Peyton is while citing his regular season successes, you cannot deny the disappointment his teams have had in the postseason.
Also, let's not ignore the obvious angle that has occurred in the NFL playoffs - the emergence of a team playing in the Wild Card round that goes on a run and wins the Lombardi. Seven of the last eight Super Bowl match-ups have featured a team whose playoff run began in the Wild Card round versus a team who had a bye to start the playoffs, with the Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl six of those times (including Peyton's lone Super Bowl victory in 2007). And remember, this list of Super Bowl losers includes the seemingly invincible New England Patriots, whose lone loss in 2007-08 was in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants.
Beware the delicious fruit.
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