9/17/2013

Week 3 Picks Go Here

Week 3
Mia -2 (-110) - (1.1 to win 1.0)
Cincy +2.5 (-110) - (1.1 to win 1.0) and ML (+123) - (0.5 to win 0.615)
Jax +18.5 (-110) - (1.1 to win 1.0)
Car +2 (-107) - (0.642 to win 0.6) and ML (+112) - (0.6 to win 0.672)
StL/Dal Over 47.5 (+107) - (1 to win 1.07)
Oak +14.5 (-105) - (1.575 to win 1.5)


(3-3, +0.212)


*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 




Week 2: (4-4, +0.582)
Week 3: (3-3, +0.212)
YTD: (13-10,  +4.934)


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

9/13/2013

Week 2 Picks Go Here

Week 2

KC -3 (-110) (1.1 to win 1.0)

NYG +4 (-110) (1.1 to win 1.0)
Car -3 (+100) (1.0 to win 1.0)
Mia +2 (-105) (0.63 to win 0.6) & ML (+117) (0.6 to win .702)
Balt/Cle Under 44 (-104) (1.56 to win 1.5)
StL/Atl Over 47.5 (-105) (1.05 to win 1)
SF +3 (-102) (1.02 to win 1) & ML (+147) (0.5 to win .735)
Cincy -6.5 (-104) (1.605 to win 1.5) 

(4-4, +0.582)

YTD: 10-7, +4.722



Week 1: (6-3, +4.14)




*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split. Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing. 

Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)

TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

9/09/2013

Risky Coach, Rewarded Fan: Why We Should Root for Chip Kelly to Succeed in NFL

Chip Kelly is about an hour away from making his coaching debut, and I couldn't be more excited.

As anyone who has watched college football knows, Kelly's Oregon squads have been some of the quickest (in both speed of the players and the plays themselves) in the country. Last year, Oregon averaged 2.89 plays per minute of possession, which ranked 8th in the country.

Not only was their pace quick, but so has their ability to score. Here's a breakdown of Kelly's teams and where they have ranked in various categories (all stats from ESPN.com rankings except where noted):




Points/game Rank
2009 36.1 8 of 120
2010 46.8 1 of 120
2011 46.1 3 of 120 (Hou/Ok St)
2012 49.6 2 of 124 (La Tech)

Fourth Downs
Made Made Rank Attempted Attempt Rank
2009 15 T9 of 120 22 T18 of 120
2010 22 T1 of 120 (G Tech) 32 2 of 120 (G Tech)
2011 14 T15 of 120 31 T4 of 120
2012 20 T7 of 124 31 11 of 124




The fourth-down statistics are mentioned as a way to show that he may be the type to take more calculated risks than the average coach. It will be interesting to see if this side of Kelly is brought to the NFL, as there are universally accepted theories within coaching circles as to avoiding risk when it's not necessary (i.e. going for a 4th down in a certain situation, like Bill Belichick against Indianapolis years ago or when Barry Switzer did it as a Cowboys coach - both failed in late-game situations deep inside their own territory and got absolutely ripped by national media for it). I maintain that there are too many times where coaches play "not to lose the game" as opposed to "playing to win the game" based on worries of media scrutiny and job security if the risks end up failing.

Plays/game Rank
2009 69.1 61 of 120
2010 78 7 of 120
2011 74.1 33 of 120
2012 82.8 11 of 124
(Stats from teamrankings.com)



Plays per point
2009 1.91
2010 1.67
2011 1.61
2012 1.67

Why do I mention all of these statistics? It's to give you an idea of the level of excitement that Chip Kelly can bring to a team. 

I know that college and NFL are two totally different games, but remember one thing: the NFL steals from college football when it comes to offense designs. Current trendy offensive formations (spread offense, read option, pistol) have all come from college football. And not only that, but Chip Kelly's influence was already in the NFL before he was, as Belichick has incorporated the fast-paced offense that Kelly efficiently executed thanks to discussions with Kelly. There may be teams who ran offenses faster in college, but no one ran them more efficiently than Kelly did. While I don't have the rankings or specific stats on how efficient these quick offenses are (in terms of plays per point -PPP or points per minute of possession - PPMoP), I do believe that Oregon's rankings the last three years of the Kelly era in terms of PPP or PPMoP would have to be in the top 3 or 4 of the nation each year.

If Chip Kelly succeeds in the NFL, here's a few things we will see change:

  1. Higher Vegas Point Totals  - Right now, a high listed point total for an NFL game as Vegas sets lines is in the mid 50s. If Kelly is able to efficiently run a quick offense, you may see games involving the Eagles approaching the low-to-mid 60s (college-like).
  2. Rejoicing Fantasy Owners - You will see a lot more Philadelphia Eagles drafted than normal in a fantasy football draft, as smart owners will salivate at the prospect of owning guys who will potentially play in 10-15 more snaps than the average offensive player on other teams.
  3. Copycats - As with anything that works efficiently for one team, you will see teams speed up their offenses in an effort to take advantage of defenses who may not always have the right personnel on the field for certain formations and are likely to get tired quicker. While not evident in their 28-2 drubbing to the Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars have plans to run a quicker offense than in year's past, as noted to C.D. Carter in an XN Sports Interview w/ Maurice Jones-Drew during the preseason. It could be argued that his effect on the NFL is already here, based on the fact that MJD mentions that the Jaguars want to run more plays than the Patriots, who already have the Kelly stamp on them.
  4. Softening on the Risk-Adverse Approach by Coaches - As I discussed in the fourth-down statistics portion of this article, one thing that is hard for NFL coaches (or coaches in many leagues for that matter) to do is to take risks that have been deemed unnecessary by the rank-and-file. If Kelly can establish a precedent where going for two-point conversions at weird points in a game (Oregon attempted 18 two-point conversions on their first touchdown of a game in Kelly's four years, converting 15) or taking chances on fourth-and-short more than the average coach, you may see more coaches take chances that they otherwise wouldn't have. Then again, this would likely depend on how secure a coach feels in his current role and whether or not he could survive the media and public onslaught.

Here's to hoping that Kelly succeeds, as I think the NFL (as with anything in life) needs its feathers ruffled every so often to improve its product even more.

9/06/2013

These Things, I Know: NFL Thoughts Entering Week 1

Here are some random thoughts about the NFL that I know to be true heading into the 2013 season:

  1. People have already made up their minds on Jay Cutler. No level of success this year outside of a Super Bowl victory will be good enough for the people that already hate him (and even then, there will be a good share of detractors), mainly for non-football reasons - i.e. his personality and demeanor turn people off. My favorite thing about sports is how everyone becomes a certified psychologist and body language expert, as if something that a television presents to you without context (a guy sitting on the bench) is a good way to read a person's true thoughts or feelings.

    Watch the reaction of Cutler after throwing an interception or getting off the field after a bad drive, and it's no different than when a top quarterback reams out his offensive line for missing a block or a receiver running the wrong pattern. But since it's a guy that hasn't succeeded in the league, the general reaction to Cutler's reaction is one of disgust. People call him petulant, a whiner, mopey, basically any adjective in the family of "immature guy who looks like he doesn't care".

    I really hope he succeeds this year and shoves it in the face of the fans who hate him and clearly yearn for the days of Johnathan Quinn or Henry Burris behind center.
  2. All of the above, change a few adjectives and names around, applies to Tony Romo.
  3. You can't say anything bad about Peyton Manning, not even his arm strength. Plus he makes funny commercials, furthering his positive image. Just makes me wonder how he would be perceived had he not had the pleasure of winning his only Super Bowl against the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears. Winning just one Super Bowl changes public perception on you forever.
  4. Some people should not be playing in fantasy football leagues.

    Just caught something on NFL Network about a Monte Ball tweet posted after his teammate Peyton Manning shredded the Ravens in a 49-24 rout of the defending champs.

  5. Here are some tweets I pulled up from people addressing Monte directly:



Anywho, onto the traditional picks for the year

Denver covered the -7 last night, so for NFL, I am 1-0, +1.1. More winning hopefully in the books.

Week 1 Picks I like:

Cle -1 vs. Mia
SF -4.5 vs. GB
Oak +10.5 at Indy
Dal -3 vs. NYG

Some I'm considering: NYJ +3.5 vs. TB; Ten +7 at Pitt

9/05/2013

Week 1 Picks Go Here & Finalized Futures

NFL Time....finally!

Week 1
Den -7 (-115) - 1.38 to win 1.20 - W
Cle ML (-124) - 1.86 to win 1.50 - L
Car +3 (+102) - 0.50 to win 0.51  & Car ML (+150) - 0.50 to win 0.75 - L
NO -3 (-122) - 1.22 to win 1.00 - W
Oak +10.5 (-110) - 1.10 to win 1.00 - W
SF -4.5 (-105) - 1.26 to win 1.20 & SF -5 (-105) - 0.63 to win 0.60 (added to Twitter) - W
Dal -3 (-115) - 1.15 to win 1.00 - W
SD +5 (-109) - 1.635 to win 1.50 - W (added to Twitter)
SD ML (+200) - 0.5 to win 1.00 - L

(6-3, +4.14)

*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split (i.e. Carolina loses by 1 or 2 above). Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

9/04/2013

Top 10 Percenters (Or Less) That Will Make Biggest Fantasy Impact

Fantasy leagues should already be drafted, so chances are, you haven't drafted any of the guys below. I say this because these are all gentlemen who are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.

In the main Yahoo league I am in, we have a bidding system for free agents (you get $100 for the year), so if you happen to be in a similar league, you might want to try getting some of these guys on the cheap end before they have a chance to shine some of their talents.

In no particular order, here are 10 guys owned in less than 10 percent of leagues who you should keep your eye on and be quick to snatch up when the time is right.

Note that I'd only advocate ownership of these guys in 12+ team leagues in any situation, unless one of these guys is just too good to ignore.

1. Quinton Patton (WR - San Francisco) - Kaepernick is already speaking highly of the rookie, who shined as the preseason went on. And with the receiver position thinned out with the loss of Crabtree and Manningham, Patton has a chance to shine in this versatile offense.

2. Marcel Reese (RB - Oakland) - This is a good guy to own if you have Darren McFadden, who has had his share of injury problems in the NFL so far. Reese is not so much known for his rushing abilities (he's caught as many balls in his career as he has career carries - 106), but in a running back pinch one week (provided McFadden misses a game or two), Reese (9% owned) might prove to be a very valuable secret. He caught 52 passes last year out of the backfield, so I expect he will still see the field in 3rd down passing situations.

3. Robert Woods (WR - Buffalo) - I expect Buffalo to be playing from behind quite a bit this year, so there should be a few beneficiaries to the fantasy world with this situation - Woods being the ultimate sleeper (owned in 9% of leagues). Woods' production will likely be tied into the effectiveness of his fellow rookie E. J. Manuel, the top QB selected in the 2013 NFL Draft. I could see Woods having a few big games (100+ yards), settling around 850-900 yards for the year and about 5 touchdowns.

4. Terrelle Pryor (QB - Oakland) - Much like the Raiders last year, I expect a lot of opportunities for garbage-time fantasy points (remember: fantasy points are all created equal - points accumulated in a close game count all the same as ones in a blowout). Pryor (8 percent owned) took the reigns (or Matt Flynn handed them to him), and if he is able to start a good chunk of this season, he may be able to be a lower-end fantasy back-up who you can count on for a spot-start. In his only start last year (Week 17 against SD), he threw for 2 touchdowns (150 yards) and rushed for another (49 yards on 5 carries) - so he has the capability for a shocking game given the right match-up.

5. Scott Chandler (TE - Buffalo) - Already seeing a lot of repeat teams here, and there's a reason. There's a certain uneasiness with owning a lot of these guys from bad teams, especially when the stats aren't always as consistent as fantasy owners would like. Chandler is owned in about 5 percent of Yahoo leagues, in part due to the offense he is in and also due to the ACL injury that he suffered towards the end of 2012. He appears to be ready to start 2013, and I consider him a sleeper given the fact that a rookie's best friend for check-downs is often a good tight end. Chandler grabbed 43 catches (6 touchdowns) for 571 yards last year.

6. Stepfan Taylor (RB - Arizona) - While I wouldn't recommend an endorsement on any running back on Arizona, it's possible that Taylor (3 percent owned) could eventually get plenty of carries and take the starting job. I don't trust Mendenhall to stay healthy, and based on everything I've read, his current back-up (Ryan Williams) is still failing to make an impression. Taylor may not make a huge splash, but as fantasy owners this year know, the running back position is one that relies mostly on opportunities. If Taylor can get the opportunity, I expect him to be owned in way more than 3% of leagues.

7. Joseph Randle (RB - Dallas) - Like Taylor above, I don't expect Randle (owned in 4 percent of leagues) to stay this little owned for the most desperate of fantasy football owners. Unlike Taylor, Randle has a much better offensive system around him should he ever get the chance to shed his back-up status (by way of Demarco Murray injury most likely). Murray has had his share of injuries in his college/pro lifespan, so don't be surprised if Randle gets a start or two this season.

8. Denard Robinson (WR/RB - Jacksonville) - Robinson (owned in 4 percent of leagues) is listed on the Jaguars' roster as "Offensive Weapon", but it looks as those the former Michigan QB-turned-Whatever-Offense-Weapon-Means will likely be used more out of the backfield and in Wildcat formations. Another appeal to Robinson is that he has multiple position possibilities, which could be an asset that fantasy owners could use to their advantage if Robinson eventually makes contributions that warrant a look in fantasy football.

9. Kirk Cousins (QB - Washington) - Cousins is likely the only back-up quarterback who I'd highly consider picking up if he is forced into action due to injury. While he is owned in only 1 percent of leagues, Cousins would be a valuable asset if he is able to do what he did in limited playing time, including a 26-for-37, 329 yard, 2 TD performance in his only start last year. And call me pessimistic, but I find it hard to believe that RG3 will limit his rushes if the opportunities present themselves, in turn making him more likely to get hurt.

10. NYJ Defense - While this is somewhat cheating, it seems weird to me that their defense is owned in less than 10 percent of leagues. Rex Ryan's squad allowed the 6th-least yards per play last year (5.1). And before you say Revis is gone, remember that he was missing due to injury for the majority of the year. You can pick your spots with their defense and find fantasy success. When December comes around, you may consider them for fantasy playoff time (Week 13 vs. Miami, 14 vs. Oakland, 16 vs. Cleveland).




8/29/2013

Unemployment Chronicles Chapter 4: Thank You

For a second there, I felt like a teenager using social media.

That second was the moment I checked a simple posting on Facebook that I was debating even putting out to the world in the first place. A short, simple statement with not much depth, but with a lot of potential impact in my life.


Brian Bolek
Interview time. Let's do it

This simple status was posted a moment before I got out of my car Wednesday afternoon, dressed in my powder blue dress shirt that I wore while standing up as best man in my friend's wedding a few years ago, accompanied by a tie from a wedding I attended Memorial Day weekend. The marriage of these pieces of clothing built my confidence to an appropriate level entering the interview.

Instead of spoiling how the interview went, what the job was for, what were some questions I was asked  (and so forth), I would rather focus on the feeling that I felt, hours after the interview was done, once I checked to see the encouragement I received from a simple social media posting.

We all know the deal with these postings - we all have our lives and like to share them with people. Some like to get a rise out of people; others like to share pictures and news with people who they may be lucky to see once a year, with a bunch of different circumstances in between. I've shared my share of Unemployment Chronicles in the past couple months, none which featured details of an interview or great job lead. And now that I have both, I feel like I'm Mileying you with my flesh-covered resume, teasing you with what may have happened (or not have happened).

It's not the actual job or the interview that matters to me at this point - it's the reaction I felt when I saw the plethora of "likes" and the words of encouragement from many of you, wishing me luck and wanting me to get out of this unemployment state. Yes - these messages we post are often self-serving, and yes - we unreasonably need reassurance from time to time that we have a great network of people behind us. And that's what I felt at that time. I want to thank all of you for your encouragement.

The biggest thanks go to the closest around me - Jen, my parents, brother, sister, sister-in-law, nephew, grandma, my closest friends, etc. It's for all of you that I wish to succeed and make the most of these 7-9 decades of life that we're lucky to have on this earth, wherever I decide to work.