Fantasy leagues should already be drafted, so chances are, you haven't drafted any of the guys below. I say this because these are all gentlemen who are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.
In the main Yahoo league I am in, we have a bidding system for free agents (you get $100 for the year), so if you happen to be in a similar league, you might want to try getting some of these guys on the cheap end before they have a chance to shine some of their talents.
In no particular order, here are 10 guys owned in less than 10 percent of leagues who you should keep your eye on and be quick to snatch up when the time is right.
Note that I'd only advocate ownership of these guys in 12+ team leagues in any situation, unless one of these guys is just too good to ignore.
1. Quinton Patton (WR - San Francisco) - Kaepernick is already speaking highly of the rookie, who shined as the preseason went on. And with the receiver position thinned out with the loss of Crabtree and Manningham, Patton has a chance to shine in this versatile offense.
2. Marcel Reese (RB - Oakland) - This is a good guy to own if you have Darren McFadden, who has had his share of injury problems in the NFL so far. Reese is not so much known for his rushing abilities (he's caught as many balls in his career as he has career carries - 106), but in a running back pinch one week (provided McFadden misses a game or two), Reese (9% owned) might prove to be a very valuable secret. He caught 52 passes last year out of the backfield, so I expect he will still see the field in 3rd down passing situations.
3. Robert Woods (WR - Buffalo) - I expect Buffalo to be playing from behind quite a bit this year, so there should be a few beneficiaries to the fantasy world with this situation - Woods being the ultimate sleeper (owned in 9% of leagues). Woods' production will likely be tied into the effectiveness of his fellow rookie E. J. Manuel, the top QB selected in the 2013 NFL Draft. I could see Woods having a few big games (100+ yards), settling around 850-900 yards for the year and about 5 touchdowns.
4. Terrelle Pryor (QB - Oakland) - Much like the Raiders last year, I expect a lot of opportunities for garbage-time fantasy points (remember: fantasy points are all created equal - points accumulated in a close game count all the same as ones in a blowout). Pryor (8 percent owned) took the reigns (or Matt Flynn handed them to him), and if he is able to start a good chunk of this season, he may be able to be a lower-end fantasy back-up who you can count on for a spot-start. In his only start last year (Week 17 against SD), he threw for 2 touchdowns (150 yards) and rushed for another (49 yards on 5 carries) - so he has the capability for a shocking game given the right match-up.
5. Scott Chandler (TE - Buffalo) - Already seeing a lot of repeat teams here, and there's a reason. There's a certain uneasiness with owning a lot of these guys from bad teams, especially when the stats aren't always as consistent as fantasy owners would like. Chandler is owned in about 5 percent of Yahoo leagues, in part due to the offense he is in and also due to the ACL injury that he suffered towards the end of 2012. He appears to be ready to start 2013, and I consider him a sleeper given the fact that a rookie's best friend for check-downs is often a good tight end. Chandler grabbed 43 catches (6 touchdowns) for 571 yards last year.
6. Stepfan Taylor (RB - Arizona) - While I wouldn't recommend an endorsement on any running back on Arizona, it's possible that Taylor (3 percent owned) could eventually get plenty of carries and take the starting job. I don't trust Mendenhall to stay healthy, and based on everything I've read, his current back-up (Ryan Williams) is still failing to make an impression. Taylor may not make a huge splash, but as fantasy owners this year know, the running back position is one that relies mostly on opportunities. If Taylor can get the opportunity, I expect him to be owned in way more than 3% of leagues.
7. Joseph Randle (RB - Dallas) - Like Taylor above, I don't expect Randle (owned in 4 percent of leagues) to stay this little owned for the most desperate of fantasy football owners. Unlike Taylor, Randle has a much better offensive system around him should he ever get the chance to shed his back-up status (by way of Demarco Murray injury most likely). Murray has had his share of injuries in his college/pro lifespan, so don't be surprised if Randle gets a start or two this season.
8. Denard Robinson (WR/RB - Jacksonville) - Robinson (owned in 4 percent of leagues) is listed on the Jaguars' roster as "Offensive Weapon", but it looks as those the former Michigan QB-turned-Whatever-Offense-Weapon-Means will likely be used more out of the backfield and in Wildcat formations. Another appeal to Robinson is that he has multiple position possibilities, which could be an asset that fantasy owners could use to their advantage if Robinson eventually makes contributions that warrant a look in fantasy football.
9. Kirk Cousins (QB - Washington) - Cousins is likely the only back-up quarterback who I'd highly consider picking up if he is forced into action due to injury. While he is owned in only 1 percent of leagues, Cousins would be a valuable asset if he is able to do what he did in limited playing time, including a 26-for-37, 329 yard, 2 TD performance in his only start last year. And call me pessimistic, but I find it hard to believe that RG3 will limit his rushes if the opportunities present themselves, in turn making him more likely to get hurt.
10. NYJ Defense - While this is somewhat cheating, it seems weird to me that their defense is owned in less than 10 percent of leagues. Rex Ryan's squad allowed the 6th-least yards per play last year (5.1). And before you say Revis is gone, remember that he was missing due to injury for the majority of the year. You can pick your spots with their defense and find fantasy success. When December comes around, you may consider them for fantasy playoff time (Week 13 vs. Miami, 14 vs. Oakland, 16 vs. Cleveland).
8/29/2013
Unemployment Chronicles Chapter 4: Thank You
For a second there, I felt like a teenager using social media.
That second was the moment I checked a simple posting on Facebook that I was debating even putting out to the world in the first place. A short, simple statement with not much depth, but with a lot of potential impact in my life.
This simple status was posted a moment before I got out of my car Wednesday afternoon, dressed in my powder blue dress shirt that I wore while standing up as best man in my friend's wedding a few years ago, accompanied by a tie from a wedding I attended Memorial Day weekend. The marriage of these pieces of clothing built my confidence to an appropriate level entering the interview.
Instead of spoiling how the interview went, what the job was for, what were some questions I was asked (and so forth), I would rather focus on the feeling that I felt, hours after the interview was done, once I checked to see the encouragement I received from a simple social media posting.
We all know the deal with these postings - we all have our lives and like to share them with people. Some like to get a rise out of people; others like to share pictures and news with people who they may be lucky to see once a year, with a bunch of different circumstances in between. I've shared my share of Unemployment Chronicles in the past couple months, none which featured details of an interview or great job lead. And now that I have both, I feel like I'm Mileying you with my flesh-covered resume, teasing you with what may have happened (or not have happened).
It's not the actual job or the interview that matters to me at this point - it's the reaction I felt when I saw the plethora of "likes" and the words of encouragement from many of you, wishing me luck and wanting me to get out of this unemployment state. Yes - these messages we post are often self-serving, and yes - we unreasonably need reassurance from time to time that we have a great network of people behind us. And that's what I felt at that time. I want to thank all of you for your encouragement.
The biggest thanks go to the closest around me - Jen, my parents, brother, sister, sister-in-law, nephew, grandma, my closest friends, etc. It's for all of you that I wish to succeed and make the most of these 7-9 decades of life that we're lucky to have on this earth, wherever I decide to work.
That second was the moment I checked a simple posting on Facebook that I was debating even putting out to the world in the first place. A short, simple statement with not much depth, but with a lot of potential impact in my life.
Brian Bolek
Interview time. Let's do it
This simple status was posted a moment before I got out of my car Wednesday afternoon, dressed in my powder blue dress shirt that I wore while standing up as best man in my friend's wedding a few years ago, accompanied by a tie from a wedding I attended Memorial Day weekend. The marriage of these pieces of clothing built my confidence to an appropriate level entering the interview.
Instead of spoiling how the interview went, what the job was for, what were some questions I was asked (and so forth), I would rather focus on the feeling that I felt, hours after the interview was done, once I checked to see the encouragement I received from a simple social media posting.
We all know the deal with these postings - we all have our lives and like to share them with people. Some like to get a rise out of people; others like to share pictures and news with people who they may be lucky to see once a year, with a bunch of different circumstances in between. I've shared my share of Unemployment Chronicles in the past couple months, none which featured details of an interview or great job lead. And now that I have both, I feel like I'm Mileying you with my flesh-covered resume, teasing you with what may have happened (or not have happened).
It's not the actual job or the interview that matters to me at this point - it's the reaction I felt when I saw the plethora of "likes" and the words of encouragement from many of you, wishing me luck and wanting me to get out of this unemployment state. Yes - these messages we post are often self-serving, and yes - we unreasonably need reassurance from time to time that we have a great network of people behind us. And that's what I felt at that time. I want to thank all of you for your encouragement.
The biggest thanks go to the closest around me - Jen, my parents, brother, sister, sister-in-law, nephew, grandma, my closest friends, etc. It's for all of you that I wish to succeed and make the most of these 7-9 decades of life that we're lucky to have on this earth, wherever I decide to work.
8/27/2013
Football Twitter Guide - from A thru Z
Since I'm at that point where I can't get enough of football items, I figured I would go through all the people I follow on Twitter and offer some names of folks whose tweets I will be looking forward to reading throughout the season by group. I will amend/add names to this as the season goes. Please provide your own folks for these subjects. Also, if I forgot your name, don't be afraid to tell me and I'll use my discretion on recommending you!
@CDCarter13 - Just started following him, but based on the few days I have, will be a valuable resource for those looking for fantasy football thoughts/advice. His affiliation with XNSports (formerly SportsJerks) is enough for me to recommend him.
@LordReebs - Originally started conversing w/ Rich last year through our 49ers affiliation, but soon grew to learn of his fantasy football knowledge. Writes for XNSports (formerly SportsJerks), which has a much different take on fantasy football than your average fantasy sports site.
@andrewssports - Offers a bookmaker's perspective, which is something I enjoy hearing. Will occasionally tweet out some of his picks.
@behindthebets - If you are looking for a good capper who uses his powers for good (accessing most of his picks @BTBPicks requires proof of donation to charity), you'd be hard-pressed to get a better one.
@beatingthebook - His weekly podcast (released on Fridays) is worth the follow alone. While his actual picks are on a site which requires paid membership, Gill usually has some good guests on the NFL podcast which get you thinking about different aspects of NFL betting.
@bettingtalk_ - While I'm not sure how their new site will be, their old site/handle (Beyond The Bets) was a great window into the Vegas community - information galore. This recommendation is based on reputation of old site.
@Big_East - Not sure how his tweets will be now that he has joined forces with a site that requires paid membership for picks, but anyone who has followed his history knows that Big_East is the real deal.
@DavidPurdum - Solid writer who covers Vegas/gambling biz. Provides useful information that can help with your wagers.
@ESPN_Colin - One of the strongest public advocates for sports wagering. His Blazing Five picks were "Off The Charts" hot last year. You may find his radio show annoying, but don't take his takes on Vegas lightly.
@FlopFlippity - Doesn't tweet as much as he should, but does offer occasional picks. Unofficial member of #BolekMadness
@HeHaithMe - One of the few guys recently who has gone the way of paid services for picks. He was absolute money on MAC games last year.
@hustledouble - well-rounded capper who has a writing itch that needs to be scratched like yours truly. Offers good insight on his picks. Becoming one of my more frequent daily conversationalists on Twitter.
@JoeFortenbaugh - A writer for the National Football Post, provides solid capping and fantasy football thoughts. A frequent contributor to the @beatingthebook podcast.
@kalind_totals - the master of the totals (NFL/NCAA). Kalind & I will occasionally appear this season on @SportsMula, an up-and-coming sports site for sports fans.
@KegsNEggs - Head college writer for Bleacher Report. He always has a few bets going on any given Saturday.
@lindetrain - Another guy in Vegas who tweets a lot about the industry. I don't recall him tweeting much about his picks, but does provide good gambling info.
@NotTheFakeBruce - Just started following him, but based on who recommended him to me, I can put my recommendation on him. Look for Bruce and myself to provide some NFL picks on @SportsMula.
@notthefakeSVP - Along w/ Cowherd, the voice of the gambler for ESPN. Frequently discusses gambling angles through Twitter as well as his nationally syndicated show.
@ScottinVAN - Frequent tweeter who often posts about his gambling goings-on. Wears his wager on his sleeve as his bets are going on (not a bad thing).
@SheaInIrving - Known best for his calls into the DP Show, provides just as much entertainment with his tweets about gambling and sports.
@SportsInsights - While maximizing their site would require payment (which I haven't done), you should still get a lot out of following the occasional posting that they offer. Big proponents of reverse line movement.
@Stuckey2 - While many don't like him for his occasional brashness, Stuckey is a solid, steady capper. Almost always want to be on the same side of him when it comes to Baltimore Ravens games (p.s. he likes Denver in Week 1 & Baltimore Under 8.5 wins)
@ToddFuhrman - Vegas insider who knows his stuff. He provides solid gambling advice and thoughts on ToddsTake.com.
@tomf_18 - While he doesn't post picks, Tom does make me laugh my ass off with some of his takes on certain aspects of betting and life. The person who I've gone on the most Vegas trips with.
@twolf2123 - While he doesn't tweet all that often, I recommend him if and when he does tweet. Very good personal friend of mine.
@WagerMinds - My favorite WagerMinds tweets are ones where he tells people to "Tear Up Your Ticket". For the first time last year, one of those alerts ended up causing bettors to paste together their picks. Has a good site for those who want to dip their feet into gambling waters w/o actually gambling.
@AndrewPerloff - Dan Patrick's go-to guy for NFL matters and occasional writer for SI. Weekly segment on DP Show (usually on Fridays) of Against the Grain is almost always entertaining (especially when it involves props) and occasionally informative.
@Ben_Jones88 - Been following him since the Sandusky trial. Reports on Penn State matters. Provides different takes on matters; will be a future sports voice, whether it be in college sports or otherwise.
@BerserkHippo - A personal friend of mine. College football is his sport - a lot of tweets on Big Ten teams, especially his favorite team Michigan. Also, check out his podcast on his site of the same name, where he and co-host @LionEsquire will occasionally discuss football matters.
@Brad_Zoe - He changes his handle every now and then (this is what it is for right now). Loves tweeting up his thoughts on sports - definitely some interesting takes on certain things. Probably the most sporadic tweeter I know, so be ready for some tweets on other subjects that a male in their young 20s will tweet (you've been warned).
@HubbuchNYP - Has the NY/NE angle of sports covered. Never afraid to be critical, at the expense of people calling him a homer of (insert rival team here).
@JasonLaCanfora - Provides solid NFL news for CBS Sports.
@JayGlazer - If there's a scoop, Jay knows about it. Also handles Twitter trolls as well as anyone I know.
@LionEsquire - Another personal friend of mine. He doesn't tweet often, and pending marriage stuff will likely inhibit this further. You can catch his football thoughts on Berserk Hippo's podcast from time-to-time.
@LostLetterman - Frequent posts/news on college football matters.
@MikeFreemanNFL - Just moved from CBS Sports to Bleacher Report. I enjoy his posts/takes on NFL matters, and like Glazer, enjoy his handling of trolls.
@PFF - For the more sophisticated, analytical football fan. PFF grades every position on a +/- scale and are relied upon by just about every respected football expert.
@RichEisen - master of the NFL Network. Also has a highly-acclaimed podcast with high profile guests.
@SI_DougFarrar - Writes about NFL-related items for Sports Illustrated, with a long history of writing about the same subject for Yahoo. My favorite tweets of his involve hypocrisy of NCAA.
@SportsMula - A site I just started contributing to recently. The site has strong aspirations to give a different take on sports with writers who are looking to make a name for themselves.
Fantasy Sports:
@CDCarter13 - Just started following him, but based on the few days I have, will be a valuable resource for those looking for fantasy football thoughts/advice. His affiliation with XNSports (formerly SportsJerks) is enough for me to recommend him.
@LordReebs - Originally started conversing w/ Rich last year through our 49ers affiliation, but soon grew to learn of his fantasy football knowledge. Writes for XNSports (formerly SportsJerks), which has a much different take on fantasy football than your average fantasy sports site.
Investors (Most of these people I've followed thru at least one NFL season - at the very least thru one or two betting seasons):
@andrewssports - Offers a bookmaker's perspective, which is something I enjoy hearing. Will occasionally tweet out some of his picks.
@behindthebets - If you are looking for a good capper who uses his powers for good (accessing most of his picks @BTBPicks requires proof of donation to charity), you'd be hard-pressed to get a better one.
@beatingthebook - His weekly podcast (released on Fridays) is worth the follow alone. While his actual picks are on a site which requires paid membership, Gill usually has some good guests on the NFL podcast which get you thinking about different aspects of NFL betting.
@bettingtalk_ - While I'm not sure how their new site will be, their old site/handle (Beyond The Bets) was a great window into the Vegas community - information galore. This recommendation is based on reputation of old site.
@Big_East - Not sure how his tweets will be now that he has joined forces with a site that requires paid membership for picks, but anyone who has followed his history knows that Big_East is the real deal.
@DavidPurdum - Solid writer who covers Vegas/gambling biz. Provides useful information that can help with your wagers.
@ESPN_Colin - One of the strongest public advocates for sports wagering. His Blazing Five picks were "Off The Charts" hot last year. You may find his radio show annoying, but don't take his takes on Vegas lightly.
@FlopFlippity - Doesn't tweet as much as he should, but does offer occasional picks. Unofficial member of #BolekMadness
@HeHaithMe - One of the few guys recently who has gone the way of paid services for picks. He was absolute money on MAC games last year.
@hustledouble - well-rounded capper who has a writing itch that needs to be scratched like yours truly. Offers good insight on his picks. Becoming one of my more frequent daily conversationalists on Twitter.
@JoeFortenbaugh - A writer for the National Football Post, provides solid capping and fantasy football thoughts. A frequent contributor to the @beatingthebook podcast.
@kalind_totals - the master of the totals (NFL/NCAA). Kalind & I will occasionally appear this season on @SportsMula, an up-and-coming sports site for sports fans.
@KegsNEggs - Head college writer for Bleacher Report. He always has a few bets going on any given Saturday.
@lindetrain - Another guy in Vegas who tweets a lot about the industry. I don't recall him tweeting much about his picks, but does provide good gambling info.
@NotTheFakeBruce - Just started following him, but based on who recommended him to me, I can put my recommendation on him. Look for Bruce and myself to provide some NFL picks on @SportsMula.
@notthefakeSVP - Along w/ Cowherd, the voice of the gambler for ESPN. Frequently discusses gambling angles through Twitter as well as his nationally syndicated show.
@ScottinVAN - Frequent tweeter who often posts about his gambling goings-on. Wears his wager on his sleeve as his bets are going on (not a bad thing).
@SheaInIrving - Known best for his calls into the DP Show, provides just as much entertainment with his tweets about gambling and sports.
@SportsInsights - While maximizing their site would require payment (which I haven't done), you should still get a lot out of following the occasional posting that they offer. Big proponents of reverse line movement.
@Stuckey2 - While many don't like him for his occasional brashness, Stuckey is a solid, steady capper. Almost always want to be on the same side of him when it comes to Baltimore Ravens games (p.s. he likes Denver in Week 1 & Baltimore Under 8.5 wins)
@ToddFuhrman - Vegas insider who knows his stuff. He provides solid gambling advice and thoughts on ToddsTake.com.
@tomf_18 - While he doesn't post picks, Tom does make me laugh my ass off with some of his takes on certain aspects of betting and life. The person who I've gone on the most Vegas trips with.
@twolf2123 - While he doesn't tweet all that often, I recommend him if and when he does tweet. Very good personal friend of mine.
@WagerMinds - My favorite WagerMinds tweets are ones where he tells people to "Tear Up Your Ticket". For the first time last year, one of those alerts ended up causing bettors to paste together their picks. Has a good site for those who want to dip their feet into gambling waters w/o actually gambling.
Just Football:
@AndrewPerloff - Dan Patrick's go-to guy for NFL matters and occasional writer for SI. Weekly segment on DP Show (usually on Fridays) of Against the Grain is almost always entertaining (especially when it involves props) and occasionally informative.
@Ben_Jones88 - Been following him since the Sandusky trial. Reports on Penn State matters. Provides different takes on matters; will be a future sports voice, whether it be in college sports or otherwise.
@BerserkHippo - A personal friend of mine. College football is his sport - a lot of tweets on Big Ten teams, especially his favorite team Michigan. Also, check out his podcast on his site of the same name, where he and co-host @LionEsquire will occasionally discuss football matters.
@Brad_Zoe - He changes his handle every now and then (this is what it is for right now). Loves tweeting up his thoughts on sports - definitely some interesting takes on certain things. Probably the most sporadic tweeter I know, so be ready for some tweets on other subjects that a male in their young 20s will tweet (you've been warned).
@HubbuchNYP - Has the NY/NE angle of sports covered. Never afraid to be critical, at the expense of people calling him a homer of (insert rival team here).
@JasonLaCanfora - Provides solid NFL news for CBS Sports.
@JayGlazer - If there's a scoop, Jay knows about it. Also handles Twitter trolls as well as anyone I know.
@LionEsquire - Another personal friend of mine. He doesn't tweet often, and pending marriage stuff will likely inhibit this further. You can catch his football thoughts on Berserk Hippo's podcast from time-to-time.
@LostLetterman - Frequent posts/news on college football matters.
@MikeFreemanNFL - Just moved from CBS Sports to Bleacher Report. I enjoy his posts/takes on NFL matters, and like Glazer, enjoy his handling of trolls.
@PFF - For the more sophisticated, analytical football fan. PFF grades every position on a +/- scale and are relied upon by just about every respected football expert.
@RichEisen - master of the NFL Network. Also has a highly-acclaimed podcast with high profile guests.
@SI_DougFarrar - Writes about NFL-related items for Sports Illustrated, with a long history of writing about the same subject for Yahoo. My favorite tweets of his involve hypocrisy of NCAA.
@SportsMula - A site I just started contributing to recently. The site has strong aspirations to give a different take on sports with writers who are looking to make a name for themselves.
Niner Nation (Grouping us all together - since it is a Nation, after all)
@AdrianPorterfi2
@GafflezMalone
@JedYork
@Kokopelli_49ers
@LordReebs
@TheDopeyOne
@Woods49ers
NFL vs College Football: Which Brand of Football Do You Prefer?
In about 48 hours, the college football season kicks off with North Carolina and South Carolina butting heads on ESPN. A week and an hour later, the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens head to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos to start up the NFL slate of games that count.
Many of us watch both brands of football; some of us intently watch an equal amount of Saturday and Sunday football, while others have a true football love. The stories below reflect those who have true ties to one or the other.
Kalind
In discussing his love of college football, Kalind (you can find him on Twitter - @kalind_totals) reflects on a childhood rich with memories of Saturdays past spent watching college football with his dad.
"I have been watching college football for as long as my eyes could focus on a TV if you let my mother tell the story," Kalind said. "She says my father held me on Saturday afternoons while he watched."
His first college football memories come from watching the Florida Gators (his hometown rooting interest at the time) taking on Georgia in 1980. Watching the Gators lose on a late touchdown from Buck Belue to Lindsay Scott broke young Kalind's heart, but set in motion a lifelong love of the sport.
"The collegiate atmosphere is what stands out to me," he said. "The Swamp, Autzen Stadium, The Big House, The 12th Man, Death Valley. Gets no better."
He cites the evolution of offenses (from the wishbone to the current trend of the spread) and coach's constant pursuit of finding mismatches as other drawing points to his fascination with the college game over the pro version.
Due to his investing into the games, Kalind no longer has a particular rooting interest in any team but does consider the SEC his favorite conference to watch.
"I enjoy watching the SEC for the tradition in rivalries and the diverse approach to the game itself," he said. "Their ability to be a defensive minded conference yet have skilled enough offensive players to destroy opponents is what draws me to the conference. They have a complete balance of TEAM concept where neither side if the ball is solely responsible for winning games.
"The talent level is directly linked to the passion the South has for the sport from youth league up through college and the parents are just as dedicated and passionate as their sons who play the game."
Kalind's Saturdays are spent in his lab, notepad in hand with games he is investing in or planning on investing in, with remote control close by so he can enjoy the DirecTV package that he purchases every college football season to its fullest potential.
"The outside world doesn't matter much on Saturdays," he said. "I may come up from my lab for the occasional breather but for the most part this is a job I take seriously."
As far as surprise teams go for this season, he considers Boise State and Northwestern as teams who have a great shot at making some noise this season. However, he doesn't think Northwestern's schedule lends itself well to consistent defensive efforts, as Kalind believes they will be facing strong rushing attacks from the fifth week of the season onward.
And the championship game?
"BCS title game will be Oregon vs Georgia." he said. "The shoot out we have been waiting for has found itself in the Rose Bowl on Jan 6th with Oregon taking the last drive of the game to win and stop the dominance of the SEC to the tune of 41-40. This will be an explosion of two of the very best offensive teams college football has to offer and it will usher in what many college football fans have wanted for quite some time, a playoff system."
Nick
Nick doesn't subscribe to the DirecTV package like Kalind does, but he does take in a lot of games each Saturday (he sets up three televisions in his living room to watch as much live action as possible). The amount of games is definitely one of the draws for him when it comes to his love of college football.
"The volume of games is just so much higher," he said. "Without buying Sunday Ticket, the most NFL games a person could see at home in a given week is 5-6, but there are times where on a given Saturday there are that many games on TV at the same time. More games increases the chance that one of them will be awesome.
"College football moves faster, and it's more exciting. Because the skill level isn't as high, things can change so quickly and the volume of exciting/big plays is much higher."
Like Kalind, Nick appreciates the atmosphere that surrounds college football and its fans.
"The students represent a different kind of fan than what the NFL has," he said. "It's much cooler to see the student section going crazy than some 45 year old guy with his face painted. There's also the mascots, the cheerleaders and the bands. The fact that players can only be there for four years means that there is a freshness to things that you can't get in the NFL."
His earliest memories of college football stem from a few Big Ten teams making Rose Bowl runs (Wisconsin & Northwestern), but his true love of the sport (and of the University of Michigan football) started when he attended college in the early 2000s, even though his school didn't have a college team.
Nick's Saturdays in the Fall are full of TVs and games, dedicating himself to this setup from the moment games kick off at 11am CST till the late games end about a half day later.
When asked about who will surprise this season, Nick provided a conference who he thinks will sneak up on people.
"It's really hard in any sport, in the Internet age, to call things a surprise because everyone gets so much coverage and everyone has a "surprise" team," he said. "I think the Pac 12 is better than everyone gives it credit (even outside of Stanford and Oregon), so I think the "surprise" could be them being much better and deeper than anyone is looking at. UCLA, Washington, Arizona and Arizona St. all got votes but are outside of the top 25. Lots of talent on those teams."
In fact, he has a PAC-12 team in his championship game. Nick's title game features Alabama winning its third straight title over Stanford.
"If this was year one of the new playoff system, I would throw Georgia and Clemson in as well," Nick said. "Clemson has a history of shooting themselves in the foot which is why I won't pick them to make it outright, but they have a ton of talent."
Brad
The youngest of the interviewees for this series, Brad's first memories of watching the NFL aren't much different than many of us born/raised in the 1980s.
"My earliest memory of watching the NFL is when I was a child, maybe 4 or 5," he said. "My dad showing me Bears games he recorded on VHS! Seeing Walter Payton's incredible runs."
Runs like that help define what Brad loves most about the NFL.
"The skill level of the NFL players and coaching is leaps and bounds better," he said.
In his lifetime, the game has changed and put more of a focus on player safety. For that reason, Brad's favorite part of the NFL has changed along with the times.
"It used to be the blind-sided hits and crack back blocks," he said. "Now, it's wide receiver routes. A beautifully run route to separate from a defensive back is beautiful."
The Sunday routine for Brad consists of a wake-up call around 10, pigs in a blanket about an hour later, which leads him right into game-time. Assuming they start at noon, the Chicago Bears dominate his airwaves, then it's the RedZone channel till Sunday Night Football comes on.
In the first potential cold-weather Super Bowl, Brad has a match-up of Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos facing Atlanta, with Peyton and company prevailing to win the Lombardi Trophy.
As far as surprise teams go, Brad went the opposite route of the others here and gave his surprise team to flop on its face this year.
"My surprise team this year is the Patriots. They will be bad...really bad," he said. "Tom Brady, for the first time in his career, has bum options to throw to."
Tim
Going to a Division I school isn't necessary for people to become fans of college football. In the case of Tim, it's one of the many reasons why he just can't get into college as much as the NFL.
"I never been able to make the attachment as a fan to any college team as it doesn’t seem natural and I can’t generate the same passion as the ones that did go to a Division I school," he said. "(Also), I think there are just way too many college teams and the product seems to get watered down."
His earliest memories stem from a team that he now despises - the 1985 Chicago Bears. Since then, he became a huge Dallas Cowboys fan (dating back to their dominance in the early 1990s). The national exposure and exciting players (citing the Irvin/Aikman/Smith triplets) sold him on the team that he continues to love.
So we already heard what he dislikes about college football. What exactly does Tim like about the NFL that makes it so special?
"The competition and parity are my favorite parts of the NFL," he said. "It seems like any team can win on any Sunday. And once playoffs start, throw out the records and watch a wild card team go on a run and take the whole thing."
Like Nick, Tim has a three television set-up that goes from noon till close. The DirecTV package comes in handy for this, allowing for Tim and his company to watch the games of their favorite squads. Getting the smoker or grill started beforehand is also a crucial aspect of Sundays for Tim, who treats his company to a variety of delicious cooked meats throughout the football season.
One surprise he believes is on the horizon for the 2013 season - a bounce back season from Kansas City.
"I like the Chiefs to be a lot better this year with a competent coach now (unless it comes to managing time or his timeouts) and a quarterback that is efficient and does not turn the ball over," he said. "He is surrounded with some dynamic weapons and a coach that does a good job of getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Their defense will be the biggest question mark/downfall."
The obligatory prediction business - Tim has Matt Ryan as a legitimate MVP candidate, with Ryan leading the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl victory over the Houston Texans to cap off the 2013-14 season.
And his final predictions?
"I like a couple of sophomore slumps to rear its ugly head with Wilson, RGIII and Luck," Tim said. "With more tape out on these guys now, I see defensive coordinators adjusting and slowing them down some. I think Luck’s style makes him the most likely to avoid the slump."
Many of us watch both brands of football; some of us intently watch an equal amount of Saturday and Sunday football, while others have a true football love. The stories below reflect those who have true ties to one or the other.
The College Guys
Kalind
In discussing his love of college football, Kalind (you can find him on Twitter - @kalind_totals) reflects on a childhood rich with memories of Saturdays past spent watching college football with his dad.
"I have been watching college football for as long as my eyes could focus on a TV if you let my mother tell the story," Kalind said. "She says my father held me on Saturday afternoons while he watched."
His first college football memories come from watching the Florida Gators (his hometown rooting interest at the time) taking on Georgia in 1980. Watching the Gators lose on a late touchdown from Buck Belue to Lindsay Scott broke young Kalind's heart, but set in motion a lifelong love of the sport.
"The collegiate atmosphere is what stands out to me," he said. "The Swamp, Autzen Stadium, The Big House, The 12th Man, Death Valley. Gets no better."
He cites the evolution of offenses (from the wishbone to the current trend of the spread) and coach's constant pursuit of finding mismatches as other drawing points to his fascination with the college game over the pro version.
Due to his investing into the games, Kalind no longer has a particular rooting interest in any team but does consider the SEC his favorite conference to watch.
"I enjoy watching the SEC for the tradition in rivalries and the diverse approach to the game itself," he said. "Their ability to be a defensive minded conference yet have skilled enough offensive players to destroy opponents is what draws me to the conference. They have a complete balance of TEAM concept where neither side if the ball is solely responsible for winning games.
"The talent level is directly linked to the passion the South has for the sport from youth league up through college and the parents are just as dedicated and passionate as their sons who play the game."
Kalind's Saturdays are spent in his lab, notepad in hand with games he is investing in or planning on investing in, with remote control close by so he can enjoy the DirecTV package that he purchases every college football season to its fullest potential.
"The outside world doesn't matter much on Saturdays," he said. "I may come up from my lab for the occasional breather but for the most part this is a job I take seriously."
As far as surprise teams go for this season, he considers Boise State and Northwestern as teams who have a great shot at making some noise this season. However, he doesn't think Northwestern's schedule lends itself well to consistent defensive efforts, as Kalind believes they will be facing strong rushing attacks from the fifth week of the season onward.
And the championship game?
"BCS title game will be Oregon vs Georgia." he said. "The shoot out we have been waiting for has found itself in the Rose Bowl on Jan 6th with Oregon taking the last drive of the game to win and stop the dominance of the SEC to the tune of 41-40. This will be an explosion of two of the very best offensive teams college football has to offer and it will usher in what many college football fans have wanted for quite some time, a playoff system."
Nick
Nick doesn't subscribe to the DirecTV package like Kalind does, but he does take in a lot of games each Saturday (he sets up three televisions in his living room to watch as much live action as possible). The amount of games is definitely one of the draws for him when it comes to his love of college football.
"The volume of games is just so much higher," he said. "Without buying Sunday Ticket, the most NFL games a person could see at home in a given week is 5-6, but there are times where on a given Saturday there are that many games on TV at the same time. More games increases the chance that one of them will be awesome.
"College football moves faster, and it's more exciting. Because the skill level isn't as high, things can change so quickly and the volume of exciting/big plays is much higher."
Like Kalind, Nick appreciates the atmosphere that surrounds college football and its fans.
"The students represent a different kind of fan than what the NFL has," he said. "It's much cooler to see the student section going crazy than some 45 year old guy with his face painted. There's also the mascots, the cheerleaders and the bands. The fact that players can only be there for four years means that there is a freshness to things that you can't get in the NFL."
His earliest memories of college football stem from a few Big Ten teams making Rose Bowl runs (Wisconsin & Northwestern), but his true love of the sport (and of the University of Michigan football) started when he attended college in the early 2000s, even though his school didn't have a college team.
Nick's Saturdays in the Fall are full of TVs and games, dedicating himself to this setup from the moment games kick off at 11am CST till the late games end about a half day later.
When asked about who will surprise this season, Nick provided a conference who he thinks will sneak up on people.
"It's really hard in any sport, in the Internet age, to call things a surprise because everyone gets so much coverage and everyone has a "surprise" team," he said. "I think the Pac 12 is better than everyone gives it credit (even outside of Stanford and Oregon), so I think the "surprise" could be them being much better and deeper than anyone is looking at. UCLA, Washington, Arizona and Arizona St. all got votes but are outside of the top 25. Lots of talent on those teams."
In fact, he has a PAC-12 team in his championship game. Nick's title game features Alabama winning its third straight title over Stanford.
"If this was year one of the new playoff system, I would throw Georgia and Clemson in as well," Nick said. "Clemson has a history of shooting themselves in the foot which is why I won't pick them to make it outright, but they have a ton of talent."
The Pro Peeps
Brad
The youngest of the interviewees for this series, Brad's first memories of watching the NFL aren't much different than many of us born/raised in the 1980s.
"My earliest memory of watching the NFL is when I was a child, maybe 4 or 5," he said. "My dad showing me Bears games he recorded on VHS! Seeing Walter Payton's incredible runs."
Runs like that help define what Brad loves most about the NFL.
"The skill level of the NFL players and coaching is leaps and bounds better," he said.
In his lifetime, the game has changed and put more of a focus on player safety. For that reason, Brad's favorite part of the NFL has changed along with the times.
"It used to be the blind-sided hits and crack back blocks," he said. "Now, it's wide receiver routes. A beautifully run route to separate from a defensive back is beautiful."
The Sunday routine for Brad consists of a wake-up call around 10, pigs in a blanket about an hour later, which leads him right into game-time. Assuming they start at noon, the Chicago Bears dominate his airwaves, then it's the RedZone channel till Sunday Night Football comes on.
In the first potential cold-weather Super Bowl, Brad has a match-up of Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos facing Atlanta, with Peyton and company prevailing to win the Lombardi Trophy.
As far as surprise teams go, Brad went the opposite route of the others here and gave his surprise team to flop on its face this year.
"My surprise team this year is the Patriots. They will be bad...really bad," he said. "Tom Brady, for the first time in his career, has bum options to throw to."
Tim
Going to a Division I school isn't necessary for people to become fans of college football. In the case of Tim, it's one of the many reasons why he just can't get into college as much as the NFL.
"I never been able to make the attachment as a fan to any college team as it doesn’t seem natural and I can’t generate the same passion as the ones that did go to a Division I school," he said. "(Also), I think there are just way too many college teams and the product seems to get watered down."
His earliest memories stem from a team that he now despises - the 1985 Chicago Bears. Since then, he became a huge Dallas Cowboys fan (dating back to their dominance in the early 1990s). The national exposure and exciting players (citing the Irvin/Aikman/Smith triplets) sold him on the team that he continues to love.
So we already heard what he dislikes about college football. What exactly does Tim like about the NFL that makes it so special?
"The competition and parity are my favorite parts of the NFL," he said. "It seems like any team can win on any Sunday. And once playoffs start, throw out the records and watch a wild card team go on a run and take the whole thing."
Like Nick, Tim has a three television set-up that goes from noon till close. The DirecTV package comes in handy for this, allowing for Tim and his company to watch the games of their favorite squads. Getting the smoker or grill started beforehand is also a crucial aspect of Sundays for Tim, who treats his company to a variety of delicious cooked meats throughout the football season.
One surprise he believes is on the horizon for the 2013 season - a bounce back season from Kansas City.
"I like the Chiefs to be a lot better this year with a competent coach now (unless it comes to managing time or his timeouts) and a quarterback that is efficient and does not turn the ball over," he said. "He is surrounded with some dynamic weapons and a coach that does a good job of getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Their defense will be the biggest question mark/downfall."
The obligatory prediction business - Tim has Matt Ryan as a legitimate MVP candidate, with Ryan leading the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl victory over the Houston Texans to cap off the 2013-14 season.
And his final predictions?
"I like a couple of sophomore slumps to rear its ugly head with Wilson, RGIII and Luck," Tim said. "With more tape out on these guys now, I see defensive coordinators adjusting and slowing them down some. I think Luck’s style makes him the most likely to avoid the slump."
8/26/2013
NFL 2013 - A New Betting Approach
They say that NFL predictions are like assholes - everyone has one. Not only do I have NFL predictions, but I'm also an asshole (not really, I'm a nice guy).
Back in June, I posted my way too early 2013 preview, which highlighted my love of both NFL teams in Ohio. Since my opinion hadn't changed on either the Bengals or the Browns, I decided to put money where my mouth is with both teams.
My first set of bets centered around the Bengals being +235 to win the AFC North (odds which have fallen to +185 since) along with their 30/1 Super Bowl odds. I am still pondering a bet on their Over 8.5 wins, but the juice has gotten really high - I'm looking to see either a drop in juice or perhaps an alternate over to bet that would cut the juice.
This weekend, I made my second set of bets. At the one and only Super Bowlek fantasy draft, I bet my friend that Cleveland will make the playoffs this season (at 2/1 odds, which I found out should have been 4/1...oh well). Then, while seeing that the site added odds on specific teams making the playoffs, I took Baltimore's odds of not making the playoffs (-105) as opposed to their under 8.5 wins. The only way I get screwed with this bet is if Baltimore makes the playoffs with an 8-8 record, which is highly unlikely to happen. Otherwise, I'm looking at a bet that will likely win/lose either way (and offers a little insurance if Baltimore goes 9-7/10-6 and misses the playoffs).
I am looking to make more future bets, which will be what I intend on focusing on the most this season.
Some others I am considering:
Back in June, I posted my way too early 2013 preview, which highlighted my love of both NFL teams in Ohio. Since my opinion hadn't changed on either the Bengals or the Browns, I decided to put money where my mouth is with both teams.
My first set of bets centered around the Bengals being +235 to win the AFC North (odds which have fallen to +185 since) along with their 30/1 Super Bowl odds. I am still pondering a bet on their Over 8.5 wins, but the juice has gotten really high - I'm looking to see either a drop in juice or perhaps an alternate over to bet that would cut the juice.
This weekend, I made my second set of bets. At the one and only Super Bowlek fantasy draft, I bet my friend that Cleveland will make the playoffs this season (at 2/1 odds, which I found out should have been 4/1...oh well). Then, while seeing that the site added odds on specific teams making the playoffs, I took Baltimore's odds of not making the playoffs (-105) as opposed to their under 8.5 wins. The only way I get screwed with this bet is if Baltimore makes the playoffs with an 8-8 record, which is highly unlikely to happen. Otherwise, I'm looking at a bet that will likely win/lose either way (and offers a little insurance if Baltimore goes 9-7/10-6 and misses the playoffs).
I am looking to make more future bets, which will be what I intend on focusing on the most this season.
Some others I am considering:
- St. Louis Over 7.5 wins
- Seattle Under 10.5 wins
- New Orleans Super Bowl odds at 20/1
- Jacksonville Over 5 wins
- Denver Under 11.5 wins
- Kansas City Over 7.5 wins
- Chicago Over 8.5 wins
I plan on narrowing these bets down a little after doing a little more schedule/injury research. I may also bet a couple of player props (i.e. rushing title winner).
I may take a shot on a few moderate division long-shots (Kansas City +570ish, StL +800, Carolina +475). In regards to this, I will be looking at early season schedule to see how likely odds are to shift one way or another on a weekly basis. Since 5dimes offers odds to win division on a weekly basis, you can likely get better odds if the team you think will win the division starts out with a loss or two, so if you can project this correctly, you can get yourself the best odds on the board.
I want the NFL to get here quick. Antsy to see how the Niners do in their first full year with Kaepernick. I am slightly worried about the wide receiver depth, but not really worried about the talent that Kaepernick possesses. I believe every team in the division improved, so no easy outs (I think Arians & Arizona will take a couple games in the division slate of games).
The rambling has started, so it's time for me to call it a night. I will let y'all know about my finalized futures.
Peace.
Bets Made (updated 9/2/13):
Cincy to win AFC North (+235 - 7/28/13): 1.1 units to win 2.82 units
Cincy to win Super Bowl (30/1 - 8/16/13): 0.6 units to win 18 units
Baltimore NOT making playoffs (-105 - 8/26/13): 1.68 units to win 1.6 units
Dez Bryant leads league in receiving yards (+800 - 8/29/13): 0.9 units to win 7.2 units
Tampa Bay Under 7.5 wins (+125 - 9/2/13): 1.1 units to win 1.5 units
Carolina Over 7 wins/Cleveland Over 6 wins parlay (~+120 9/2/13): 1.6 units to win ~1.91 units
Bets Made (updated 9/2/13):
Cincy to win AFC North (+235 - 7/28/13): 1.1 units to win 2.82 units
Cincy to win Super Bowl (30/1 - 8/16/13): 0.6 units to win 18 units
Baltimore NOT making playoffs (-105 - 8/26/13): 1.68 units to win 1.6 units
Dez Bryant leads league in receiving yards (+800 - 8/29/13): 0.9 units to win 7.2 units
Tampa Bay Under 7.5 wins (+125 - 9/2/13): 1.1 units to win 1.5 units
Carolina Over 7 wins/Cleveland Over 6 wins parlay (~+120 9/2/13): 1.6 units to win ~1.91 units
8/23/2013
I Don't Care About Your Team: Tips for Making Your Fantasy Football Draft a Success
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| This is the awesomeness you are missing out on if you do your fantasy drafts online |
This weekend marks the prime-time for adults to channel their inner-nerds as we embark on the start of fantasy football season. (Note: If you did your draft weeks/months ago, you're doing it wrong. Way, way wrong)
Many of you folks will participate in a league or two (some of you three or four or however many Steve entered), so you're probably in the same boat as me and doing a little bit of preparation for the draft - although my level of preparation being the commissioner is a little different and more time-consuming than just browsing magazines and hoping I get a few of my sleepers in the later rounds.
To make the most of your fantasy football drafting experience, here's what I recommend:
(1) Do It Live - Fantasy drafts were meant to be done in person. If your fantasy football crew lives within 20-30 miles radius of where you live, there's no reason to have everyone on their computers at home when a potential congregation of losers can come to life. While the in-person draft adds a little time to the draft, it is a lot more amusing with the banter and beer enjoyed with the group.
(2) Be Prepared - You don't need to be a Boy or Girl Scout to know this one. Being prepared (i.e. a minimal understanding of the league rules, who is hurt) is crucial to ensuring that you don't piss off the people in your league when the draft begins. Being prepared also includes having some sort of list or fantasy magazine that you can cross names off of as the players are picked throughout the draft. It may seem like common sense, but having done the in-person draft as a commissioner five times and as a participant in about 10 others, you're never surprised when a new surprise pops up.
(3) Be Ready To Pick - Online drafts usually have a 1:30 or 2 minute window between picks, so as you're doing these drafts, you should have a general idea of certain players or a certain position you may be targeting with your next pick(s). On many sites that I have used, there is a draft queue that allows you to click/drag names of players who you may be targeting with your next set of picks. Utilize this tool to help you decide your players quicker than you would by just slowly browsing up and down the position ranks. Yes, there will be times where a certain player you were eyeing gets snatched up right before your pick, so you may need a little time to regroup. Just don't make it a habit and make the draft drag out longer than need be. In my in-person league, I added a draft clock app to my phone last year, and it gives drafters a good amount of time to make their picks (a generous five minutes). If you're in my league, please, please heed my advice in these points above and below so I don't blow a gasket or deflate your tires.
(4) Have Fun With It- I'm probably way too involved and get way into fantasy football, particularly my own league. It was a problem I recognized recently, so like anyone who wants to solve a problem, I took some action and decided to leave two of my money leagues. When you're to the point where you've joined so many leagues that you can't keep track of what players you have on what teams, and you find yourself rooting for specific players to achieve specific results waaaay too much, you may want to take a step back and realize that you may be in too many leagues and you're taking it way too seriously. While the goal is to win them (especially the money leagues), have fun with the process. Loosen up, have a few drinks, and remember, you're playing FANTASY football. There's no concussions, torn ACLs or broken necks involved in fantasy football...unless (again) you're doing it wrong.
(5) Tip The Commissioner - Just kidding. (No seriously, tip). Well, no need to tip, but realize that if you got a good commissioner, he or she is busting ass, doing painful, tireless work to ensure that everything in the league is all set for the big draft day. I hope my fellas out there know how much of a pain this can be, but the rewards of draft night being finished make it all worth it (well, somewhat worth it). At the very least, tell the commissioner how awesome he or she is and how you will bow down to him or her for being so righteously awesome.
(6) And As Always...No One Except The Teams In Your League Gives A Shit About Your Team - This cannot be stressed enough. I could tell you about the bold moves I made in the offseason of the sixth installment of Super Bowlek, like trading Peyton Manning, my two first non-keeper round picks for 2013 and my 2014 first pick for Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster and a bunch of picks...but do you really care? Most of you stopped reading that previous sentence before I even got to my first verb. If you're in a bunch of fantasy leagues, I expect you to have at least 4 or 5 high quality players, especially if there's less than 14 teams in your league. So don't rattle off the names of all of your great players if I'm not in that league - because I'm not really that interested, just like I know you're not really that interested in mine.
Now that you have your fantasy tips, you can commence your draft process. Now go along, study up, and draft a good team.
Just don't tell me who's on it.
8/18/2013
NFL Playoff Paralysis by Analysis: New Playoff Teams & Fun Playoff Facts
Your team not make the NFL playoffs last year? If history is any indication (unless you're a Raiders fan), chances are that they're not that far away from making the January Madness.
Since the Cleveland Browns rejoined the league in 2002 and the NFL went to 4 divisions in each conference, there has been an average of just over 6 new teams in the playoffs from year-to-year (which represents a 50% change from one postseason to the next).
Last year featured the smallest change from one year to the next in the 32-team era (there were only four new teams in the playoffs compared to 2011), including the exact same division winners and only one change in the AFC (the Colts taking the Steelers spot).
So out of these 20 teams who didn't make the playoffs last year, who are the mostly likely (in my eyes) to be playing into January?
No Chance (6): Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets
Sleepers (8): Cleveland, Kansas City, San Diego, Miami, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Decent Shot (2): Detroit, Dallas
Best Chance (4): Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, New Orleans
With how wide open the AFC seems this year, with Baltimore's leadership core depleted and New England losing its top 5 receivers by yardage from 2012, it looks as though that will be the conference that has the best chance to see some new blood in the playoffs (I could see a few of the AFC sleepers I mentioned in the playoffs). Even though I have Pittsburgh out of my playoff bracket for 2013, I mention them as Best Chance mainly off of their recent history to bounce back from a non-playoff season.
So if there's six new teams in the playoffs this year, who are the most likely teams that will be on the outside of the January side of football?
My best guesses:
Since the Cleveland Browns rejoined the league in 2002 and the NFL went to 4 divisions in each conference, there has been an average of just over 6 new teams in the playoffs from year-to-year (which represents a 50% change from one postseason to the next).
Last year featured the smallest change from one year to the next in the 32-team era (there were only four new teams in the playoffs compared to 2011), including the exact same division winners and only one change in the AFC (the Colts taking the Steelers spot).
So out of these 20 teams who didn't make the playoffs last year, who are the mostly likely (in my eyes) to be playing into January?
No Chance (6): Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets
Sleepers (8): Cleveland, Kansas City, San Diego, Miami, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Decent Shot (2): Detroit, Dallas
Best Chance (4): Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, New Orleans
With how wide open the AFC seems this year, with Baltimore's leadership core depleted and New England losing its top 5 receivers by yardage from 2012, it looks as though that will be the conference that has the best chance to see some new blood in the playoffs (I could see a few of the AFC sleepers I mentioned in the playoffs). Even though I have Pittsburgh out of my playoff bracket for 2013, I mention them as Best Chance mainly off of their recent history to bounce back from a non-playoff season.
So if there's six new teams in the playoffs this year, who are the most likely teams that will be on the outside of the January side of football?
My best guesses:
- Baltimore (will miss leadership on defense as well as some of their key offensive weapons - Pitta/Boldin helped make Flacco a rich man and will both be missed)
- Indy (they were the first 11-5 team ever to make the playoffs while allowing more points than they scored - regression to 6 or 7 wins is my projection).
- Washington (with how competitive the NFC East is and the RG3 health questions entering 2013, I don't see them successfully defending their division crown)
- Minnesota (Christian Ponder is going to miss Percy Harvin (and Greg Jennings is going to miss Aaron Rodgers), and I don't see how AP can carry this team to a playoff run like he did last year. Plus, like the NFC East, the NFC Central is strong top-to-bottom)
- Atlanta (this is more of a hunch than based in concrete data. Atlanta destroyed the division last year, but I think New Orleans w/ Sean Payton, Carolina w/ their stud Cam, and Tampa's big moves, like acquiring Revis Island, will likely lead to a few more losses for the Falcons this year)
- Green Bay (this certainly isn't a reflection of their QB, but more their offensive line, which could get Rodgers killed this year, and their defense, which got shredded in their playoff loss to the 49ers)
New England could get added to this list if Brady isn't able to establish good connections with his new receivers. I also wouldn't be shocked if there was some drop off with Seattle, who seem to be a trendy Super Bowl pick.
Fun Division Facts
There's a few nuggets that I'd like to share in my research and breakdown of the division winners in the 32-team NFL era (2002-current):
- New England and Indianapolis are the only teams to win five straight division titles in this era, each accomplishing their respective feats from 2003-2007. Seattle (2004-2007) and SD (2006-2009) are the only other teams to have a run of four straight division titles.
- The NFC South, which is among four divisions during this time to see all four of its teams win at least one division crown, has yet to have a reigning division title team repeat the next year. This does not bode well for Atlanta.
- In addition to the above fact, the NFC South is the most represented division to make the big game, with a total of three different teams making a Super Bowl (2002 TB, 2003 Carolina, 2009 New Orleans). NFC West also has this distinction (Seattle in 2005, Arizona in 2008, San Fran in 2012).
- Of the 10 teams who have won a Super Bowl between 2003 and 2012, only three of these teams did not make the playoffs the previous year (NE in 2003, NO in 2009, and NYG in 2011)
- Of the 10 Super Bowl losers during this same time, only Carolina (2003), Arizona (2008) and Pittsburgh (2010) failed to make the playoffs the year before.
- Of the 10 Super Bowl winners between 2002 and 2011, three missed the playoffs the following year (Tampa in 2003, Pittsburgh in 2006, NYG in 2012). I am projecting that Baltimore becomes the fourth.
- Of the 10 Super Bowl losers between 2002 and 2011, half of them missed the playoffs the following year (Oakland in 2003, Carolina in 2004, Philly in 2005, Chicago in 2007, New England in 2008).
- 23 of the 32 franchises have made the playoffs at least once in the past four postseasons. The casualties? Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Carolina, Tampa Bay, St. Louis.
- Of these 23, 17 teams (or over half the league) has won at least one playoff game. Baltimore is the only team that has won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years.
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