In case you hadn't noticed from the first March Madness blog I did at the start of the tournament 2.5 weeks ago, Jen picked the correct championship game - Kansas versus Kentucky. Not bad for a first time filling out a bracket. I think I've done that 2 or 3 times in my life of filling out brackets for 15-16 years at least. I've picked champions about 3-4 times in my life (not including this one). I had Kansas to win it all the past couple years, so I probably bet them to lose this year (Round of 32 vs Purdue) because of the bad taste they've left in my mouth. If Jen had been in a pool last year, she may have had avoided the Jayhawks as well.
However, her title pick (Kansas) is getting routed at the half by "my" Kentucky Wildcats, which means I'd get my choice of dinner for her to make. I was thinking BBQ chicken pizza, but maybe I'll go a different route. Does anyone have any good ideas for food I should ask the lady to cook?
Perhaps I shouldn't post this with a half to go, but I'm one of the few sports fans in the world who doesn't believe in jinxes - so here goes nothing.
But what's really sad now is that the end of college basketball closes the end of a betting season for me. NBA is still there till June, but I was just starting to hit my groove with March Madness betting for once. Most years, I tank any NBA winnings or regular season college winnings in the first weekend of the tourney - and this year was almost no exception.
My first 6 bets of the tourney (all first day bets) were toilet money, ranging from a couple of money line bets (including a long shot in UNC Asheville) to some first and second half bets. My last two bets on the initial day were winners, but that momentum didn't carry over after losing 4 of my first 5 bets of the day, digging myself into quite the hole.
I can thank Xavier for starting my great run with a win against Notre Dame - overall, Xavier netted me $660 in their three games of the tourney. Only Louisville (+$850) was better for me.
Even though entering the tourney finale my record was 23-24, I was able to sport a profit of $801 for the tourney games - thank God for Xavier + Louisville covers. Outside of their games (the ones I bet on, didn't bet on Louisville game), I was down $709 (eeeek) with a 16-24 record.
As I've typed this, Kentucky has had their lead chipped into a little bit - let's hope this doesn't get chipped into further. Go Blue (sorry Jen & Sherman).
Showing posts with label kansas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kansas. Show all posts
4/02/2012
3/31/2012
The Rides of March - Final Four Preview
It's getting to the end of the college season, which I'm sure some of you are mourning like me, while others are just glad their boyfriends aren't going to be watching this March Madness crap anymore.
Both games feature regular season rematches from December. Kansas continued their dominance on their home court and handled Ohio State last time around, but the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger, a late scratch in the game.
While Ohio State was expected to dominate the Big Ten and compete for the title this year, Kansas was thought to be in a rebuilding process - at least for them. Many projects had Kansas finishing behind Baylor and Missouri in the Big 12.
Louisville +8.5 vs. Kentucky
Kentucky downed Louisville by 7 on New Year's Eve, but were up by double digits much of the latter part of the game. As the cliche goes, these teams are a shell of what they were. Kentucky's young guns are much more seasoned, while Louisville has developed into one of the best defenses in college basketball.
At this point in the tourney, when you're betting some of these Final Four teams throughout the tourney and riding them to profit, it becomes difficult to bet against them. For me, the team that fits this bill the best is Louisville, a squad I have backed from the Round of 32 into the Elite Eight.
Despite the bet being a squarish (very public/popular) bet, I refreshed my phone in delight as Louisville covered the spread by a bucket over New Mexico on St. Patrick's Day. Five days later, I was delighted to see the Cardinals as 5 to 5.5 point underdogs versus Michigan State, the top seed in the region with a coach (Tom Izzo) who has a reputation for great coaching in March Madness.
After Louisville's convincing win there, they had to face the Florida Gators, who many sharp bettors thought had the better chance to advance to the Final Four thanks to more scoring options. It was looking that way for the first 33-34 minutes of the game, with Florida storming out of the gate with an insane shooting display. They led much of the game, mainly in the 7-10 point range, but a late rally by Louisville led -----> this guy <------ to celebrate to a third consecutive gambling win for me on Louisville.
In all, this Cardinals run netted me $800, so you can see why I may have a soft spot for them tonight against Kentucky, who I picked to win the tourney when the brackets came out. As any gambler knows though, you have to take emotion out of the equation and you have to ignore who may or may not have won you money. With Kentucky tourney games, I went 1-1 (bet on them against Indiana, against their spread versus Baylor).
This is no way to analyze a game, but stuff I must keep in mind before making an emotional type of bet on the games. I do think this is going to be a hard-fought rivalry type of game. Their December 31st matchup featured 50+ fouls, which hopefully won't get quite that high today (for fear of the referees making themselves part of the game).
Kentucky has the superior talent, while Louisville has the better team defense. I expect this to be the Civil War that everyone is dubbing it. Rick Pitino prepares his teams well after long layoffs between games, which will be one of the reasons this game stays so close. Like their last game, I say Kentucky wins, but Louisville covers.
Kentucky 67, Louisville 61 (Betting Louisville +8.5)
Kansas +2.5 vs. Ohio State
I don't have as much of a feel on the other game. The scary thing about Kansas so far is that they haven't really played that great yet despite making the Final Four. The Jayhawks escaped with a win over Purdue and could never put away North Carolina State in the regional semifinals. They were going back and forth versus UNC before saving their best three-minute span of tourney basketball for the last three minutes and eventually running away from the Tar Heels.
Ohio State has confused some bettors this year, with people not sure what they are going to get out of the Buckeyes. Come tourney time, and the Buckeyes started taking care of business. Like Kansas, they downed a 1-seed to advance to the Final Four, thanks to a strong second half performance.
While Kansas won by 11 the last time around, I'd definitely say that the absence of Sullinger was the main reason to such a convincing victory. If I decide to bet this game, I'm leaning on taking Ohio State - just not sure how convinced I am that Kansas isn't going to show its talent a little more than they have so far in the tourney.
Ohio State 74, Kansas 70
Enjoy the games everyone.
Both games feature regular season rematches from December. Kansas continued their dominance on their home court and handled Ohio State last time around, but the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger, a late scratch in the game.
While Ohio State was expected to dominate the Big Ten and compete for the title this year, Kansas was thought to be in a rebuilding process - at least for them. Many projects had Kansas finishing behind Baylor and Missouri in the Big 12.
Louisville +8.5 vs. Kentucky
Kentucky downed Louisville by 7 on New Year's Eve, but were up by double digits much of the latter part of the game. As the cliche goes, these teams are a shell of what they were. Kentucky's young guns are much more seasoned, while Louisville has developed into one of the best defenses in college basketball.
At this point in the tourney, when you're betting some of these Final Four teams throughout the tourney and riding them to profit, it becomes difficult to bet against them. For me, the team that fits this bill the best is Louisville, a squad I have backed from the Round of 32 into the Elite Eight.
Despite the bet being a squarish (very public/popular) bet, I refreshed my phone in delight as Louisville covered the spread by a bucket over New Mexico on St. Patrick's Day. Five days later, I was delighted to see the Cardinals as 5 to 5.5 point underdogs versus Michigan State, the top seed in the region with a coach (Tom Izzo) who has a reputation for great coaching in March Madness.
After Louisville's convincing win there, they had to face the Florida Gators, who many sharp bettors thought had the better chance to advance to the Final Four thanks to more scoring options. It was looking that way for the first 33-34 minutes of the game, with Florida storming out of the gate with an insane shooting display. They led much of the game, mainly in the 7-10 point range, but a late rally by Louisville led -----> this guy <------ to celebrate to a third consecutive gambling win for me on Louisville.
In all, this Cardinals run netted me $800, so you can see why I may have a soft spot for them tonight against Kentucky, who I picked to win the tourney when the brackets came out. As any gambler knows though, you have to take emotion out of the equation and you have to ignore who may or may not have won you money. With Kentucky tourney games, I went 1-1 (bet on them against Indiana, against their spread versus Baylor).
This is no way to analyze a game, but stuff I must keep in mind before making an emotional type of bet on the games. I do think this is going to be a hard-fought rivalry type of game. Their December 31st matchup featured 50+ fouls, which hopefully won't get quite that high today (for fear of the referees making themselves part of the game).
Kentucky has the superior talent, while Louisville has the better team defense. I expect this to be the Civil War that everyone is dubbing it. Rick Pitino prepares his teams well after long layoffs between games, which will be one of the reasons this game stays so close. Like their last game, I say Kentucky wins, but Louisville covers.
Kentucky 67, Louisville 61 (Betting Louisville +8.5)
Kansas +2.5 vs. Ohio State
I don't have as much of a feel on the other game. The scary thing about Kansas so far is that they haven't really played that great yet despite making the Final Four. The Jayhawks escaped with a win over Purdue and could never put away North Carolina State in the regional semifinals. They were going back and forth versus UNC before saving their best three-minute span of tourney basketball for the last three minutes and eventually running away from the Tar Heels.
Ohio State has confused some bettors this year, with people not sure what they are going to get out of the Buckeyes. Come tourney time, and the Buckeyes started taking care of business. Like Kansas, they downed a 1-seed to advance to the Final Four, thanks to a strong second half performance.
While Kansas won by 11 the last time around, I'd definitely say that the absence of Sullinger was the main reason to such a convincing victory. If I decide to bet this game, I'm leaning on taking Ohio State - just not sure how convinced I am that Kansas isn't going to show its talent a little more than they have so far in the tourney.
Ohio State 74, Kansas 70
Enjoy the games everyone.
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