How's Your Bracket & Other March Madness Musings

How does your bracket look?

Honestly, I stopped looking at mine with the string of upsets on Thursday, particularly New Mexico (one of my Final Four). But with that loss, I decided that this March (and future Marches) would not be considered a success or failure based on my brackets. Instead, my focus will be strictly on my gambling account.

Does this look like a successful bracket to you?

I don't think this bracket is going to win me anything. Too many red lines too early in the tourney.

But you know what? As long as the bets I make are coming in, I don't care if this whole sheet is full of red lines.

I have had some bad bets (Montana was my worst bet of the year, possibly a top-5 all-time worst bet) - note that I don't always bet with my bracket (but usually do). For instance, one of my best bets ever came on Friday, betting on Florida Gulf Coast against Georgetown (the first half line of +7.5, game line of +13.5 & the best part, the money line of +800 - the biggest money line I've ever hit for a single game).

Are We the Champions?

The big bets still alive exist in the East bracket, where I have two teams still alive for my prop bet to win the tourney. Illinois did what they could to blow their huge lead, but ultimately held on to win. They face Miami on Sunday. I'm not really sure what to expect from them, but I'm hoping that they or California (preferably both) can pull off upsets in their Round of 32 matchups - Cali has Syracuse Saturday night.

A California title would net me $3750 on a $15 bet, while an Illinois championship would pay $4125. The odds of either team winning it are still remote, but it's still nice to see them stay alive. I hope one of them teases me with another win and a promotion to the Sweet 16.

Speaking of Illinois...

I've heard there's a lot of Illinois fans consumed with hatred of Bruce Weber, so much so that they seem to be enjoying the Kansas State loss more than their school's win. If you have any issues with Weber, you have issues yourself. I'm not sure what he did to get people to hate him so much. So what if he wasn't the best basketball coach? It's not like the guy murdered anyone - no reason to root so hard against a guy that led your school to its only title appearance in 2005.

If you're an Illini fan reading this and you're angry with Weber about his stint with Illinois....get over it. It's over and done with. Embrace the current and future Illinois teams. Enjoy watching these teams coached by a fantastic young coach (John Groce was a great hire) who has proven himself as a solid recruiter. Don't waste your energy on a part of our school's past that frankly wasn't all that bad.

Speaking of bad...

Did any of you attempt to watch most/all of the March Madness action? If so, I apologize. My eyes and brain hurt greatly from the poor quality of games so far this tourney. Forgive me if you disagree, but the quality of play from most teams was evident. I'm sure you can cite a plethora of reasons for this: (1) playing outside of normal game conditions, (2) lack of overall talent due to underclassmen going to the NBA, (3) pacing of games is choppy with all the TV timeouts, coaching timeouts and fouls, etc.

For me, especially this year, it's been almost impossible for me to watch games without having a reason to watch it (i.e. gambling). And for many of you, you'd probably not be watching these games if you didn't have bets on it or a bracket to follow. Gambling and brackets drive the March Madness, not the quality of play. We get so blinded by how great college basketball supposedly is by the 63 items to fill on those brackets that we don't even realize how poorly played these games are. Sloppy fouls, horrible turnovers, ridiculous shots that require viewers to consume shots. If you can enjoy these games without a bracket and without bets, then all the more power to you - I can't.

Good luck with your bets/brackets the rest of the tourney. I hope the games are higher quality than we've seen so far.

Brian's Bracket - 2013 Version

Nothing else needs to be said, aside from my two tourney bets that aren't reflected on my bracket:

169809293-1

3/21/13 12:54am

$15.00

$4,125.00

Pending

3/21/13 12:15pm Basketball NCAA Men's Basketball +27500 National Champion 2012/13 - Illinois

166242856-1

3/2/13 2:54am

$15.00

$3,750.00

Pending

3/2/13 12:00pm Basketball NCAA Men's Basketball +25000 National Champion 2012/13 - California

Good luck with your brackets. Here is my bracket of integrity (in an offshoot, I have New Mexico winning it over Indiana)

Dos and Don'ts of March Madness Bracketing

Wanna be charged with a case of bracketeering?

Don't get on my bad side when it comes to filling out March Madness brackets. I'll point out the few types of folks that bother me the most.

(P.S. If you want to join my Yahoo bracket league, click on the following link and join: http://y.ahoo.it/Z7vBSl5l or just look up Group 12771 on Yahoo's Fantasy Sports Tournament Pick'Em page)

Don't Be The...

1. Guy Who Fills Out 10 Brackets...and then is bragging when one of them has an upset that occurred. If you want to fill out several brackets, that's cool. But one of your brackets has to be the master copy - the one which has what you think will actually happen, not every single upset possible just to brag when one of the 30 comes in.

2. Guy Who Picks a Square Bracket - Will each bracket feature a #1 vs. #2. in the regional final? Probably not. Will the top 4 seeds in each bracket make it to the Sweet 16? I'm going out on a limb and saying no. Please, please, please....don't be that guy who picks nothing but the highest seeds to advance in every round. Even if you're in a money pool, there's a handful of people already doing that, so you will need some variety to your picks.

If your bracket looks like this, don't join my pool. Or any pool for that matter. Your brackets need a little variety and spice.

3. Guy Who Picks Notre Dame over Montana in the NCAA Final: According to a friend of mine, he knows someone who has this match-up as the championship game of the tourney. If anyone does this in the groups I entered, I will say - thank you for your donation. At this point, you've probably picked so many upsets that winning the pool is completely unrealistic.

I'd be willing to donate a testicle to science if this is the NCAA final game.


On the other hand, you should be the....

1. Guy who has a handful of double digit seeds winning in the first full round. What fun is it to pick all the top seeds (1-8)?

And while we're at it, you should sprinkle in a few of these teams into the Sweet 16. Not all of them, but some of them.

2. Guy who has 1 or 2 #1 seeds in the Final Four. The likelihood of all 4 #1 seeds making the Final Four pays off at a 50/1 clip on 5dimes. On the other end, the likelihood of no #1 seeds making the Final Four is a 4/1 proposition - 12.5 times more likely to happen than all #1s. The best odds lie in 1 or 2 top-seeds to make the Final Four. My bracket fits this bill.

For what it's worth, the sportsbooks have the over/under of the total sum of all seeds in the Final Four to be at 12.5 - which my picks are slightly under that. I'll post some more of the fun props below.

3. Guy who has a top 3 seed winning the tourney.  Realistically, the top 3 seeds are the best bet when determining who will be the champion. In the 30 previous Final Fours of my lifetime (including 1983), there have been only four teams who have been seeded 4th or higher that won the title, and none since Arizona as a 4 seed in 1997.

Many of you are entering pools when doing these brackets, so why not think over some of these tips when entering your brackets? I wish everyone the best of luck with their brackets. I will post my bracket on Thursday.

In the meantime, ponder some of these props that are on 5dimes:

Thu 3/21		15743 All #1-#4 seeds in Final 4		+173
1:40PM		15744 Any #5-#16 seed in Final 4		-205

Thu 3/21		15731 Exactly three #1-#3 seeds in Final 4		+135
1:40PM		15732 Not exactly three #1-#3 seeds in Final 4		-155

I already have a bet from late last month on California to win the tournament at 225/1 odds - 15 to win 3750. I am considering some other long shots (Kansas State at 100/1 & Illinois at 275/1 are crossing my mind).

Kentucky's Derby

In case you hadn't noticed from the first March Madness blog I did at the start of the tournament 2.5 weeks ago, Jen picked the correct championship game - Kansas versus Kentucky. Not bad for a first time filling out a bracket. I think I've done that 2 or 3 times in my life of filling out brackets for 15-16 years at least. I've picked champions about 3-4 times in my life (not including this one). I had Kansas to win it all the past couple years, so I probably bet them to lose this year (Round of 32 vs Purdue) because of the bad taste they've left in my mouth. If Jen had been in a pool last year, she may have had avoided the Jayhawks as well.

However, her title pick (Kansas) is getting routed at the half by "my" Kentucky Wildcats, which means I'd get my choice of dinner for her to make. I was thinking BBQ chicken pizza, but maybe I'll go a different route. Does anyone have any good ideas for food I should ask the lady to cook?

Perhaps I shouldn't post this with a half to go, but I'm one of the few sports fans in the world who doesn't believe in jinxes - so here goes nothing.

But what's really sad now is that the end of college basketball closes the end of a betting season for me. NBA is still there till June, but I was just starting to hit my groove with March Madness betting for once. Most years, I tank any NBA winnings or regular season college winnings in the first weekend of the tourney - and this year was almost no exception.

My first 6 bets of the tourney (all first day bets) were toilet money, ranging from a couple of money line bets (including a long shot in UNC Asheville) to some first and second half bets. My last two bets on the initial day were winners, but that momentum didn't carry over after losing 4 of my first 5 bets of the day, digging myself into quite the hole.

I can thank Xavier for starting my great run with a win against Notre Dame - overall, Xavier netted me $660 in their three games of the tourney. Only Louisville (+$850) was better for me.

Even though entering the tourney finale my record was 23-24, I was able to sport a profit of $801 for the tourney games - thank God for Xavier + Louisville covers. Outside of their games (the ones I bet on, didn't bet on Louisville game), I was down $709 (eeeek) with a 16-24 record.

As I've typed this, Kentucky has had their lead chipped into a little bit - let's hope this doesn't get chipped into further. Go Blue (sorry Jen & Sherman).