Squares Root (For Teams Not Their Own)

Root root root for the home team

If they don't win, just root for someone else...

-Author Unknown

Ok, maybe that author is me. Could be, I don't know.

Anywho, the topic that's on my mind a week before the Super Bowl isn't so much about the game as it is about the people who watch the game.

You. Me. Your Mom (yeah, she watches it). Even your lady friends who can only name one player on each team, and that's because she's in love with one of them (Kaepernick) and thinks the other guy got away with murder over a decade ago (Ray Lewis - btw, the case against him was so flawed, but people continue to speak of this "murder" as truth).

When these people go to parties, you'll be hard-pressed to find someone staying completely neutral. Which is strange, since more than likely, his or her favorite team is looonnnnnnnnnng gone from the Super Bowl. 

And yes, I'm guilty of this too, although my team rooting interest is almost always (as in 100% of the time) tied together with whoever I bet on. If you're betting on a game and have a rooting angle, I get it. If one of the teams is a division rival of yours, I get that, too. For example, no way should Bears fans be rooting for the Packers in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, and vice versa years before that.

However, when people have no reason to root for or against any team, they will still find some kind of angle to do just that. Out of thin air, they'll find a reason. For this Super Bowl, I've already found a few people who have been bitching about Colin Kaepernick. Yes, he does come off as a douchebag, and yes, he did trademark the word Kaepernicking. But if any of us were in the same spot and our last names got famous, we'd be doing the same thing. After all, it's better to make money off of your name than have someone else do it. Also, some of the hate is rooted in the common ingredient of hate - jealousy.

On the other side, I know some folks might be rooting against the Ravens because "Ray Lewis got away with murder" (blah, blah, blah...find something truthful to hate guys for). At the end of the day, people who aren't already fans of the teams or don't have any monetary interest on either team will find a way to root for or against the Niners or the Ravens. 

Is it human nature? Maybe. I feel like we do this with things other than sports as well. With TV shows and movies that we watch, we root for who we perceive to be the good guys and wish ill thoughts and fates for the bad guys.

Word of warning to those casually rooting for the Ravens (or against the Niners) who may be in my presence on February 3rd: I may curse at you, but only because I'm rooting for the Niners. Like, for real rooting for them.

And also my squares.

Safe the Last, Lance, For Me

Lance Armstrong had an interview with Oprah Winfrey for her show on her network OWN in which the former cyclist is assumed to be admitting to using performance-enhancing drugs. I say assumed because the interview has not aired yet (it will air Thursday and Friday nights in a two-part interview).

Armstrong's confessions come at a time where Livestrong needed him to rid the ugly shadow that has been cast upon anything and everything Armstrong has touched, including the charity that he helped start in 1997. For all the great work that Armstrong and his crew did and the hope they brought to people across the globe inflicted with cancer, he risked undermining everything the charity has worked to become had he not offered some kind of confession in the light of mounds of evidence that point towards his guilt.

No Shock

At this point anyone who has followed his story is about as shocked to learn this "truth" as people were on Sunday to hear about Jodie Foster. No one is surprised about this...at least when it comes to the general public who wasn't brainwashed by Armstrong's rise to glory.

To people who had to deal with cancer or know someone close who has dealt with cancer, Armstrong's association with the Livestrong charity is the only thing they care about. The only thing. And that's somewhat understandable.

Don't get me wrong, no one should be against anything that has to do with charity. Anyone donating time and/or money to charity is doing a great deed. That doesn't mean people who are associated with them, particularly high profile people like Lance Armstrong, can be absolved of the label "Complete Asshole" if they engage in the acts of what a "Complete Asshole" represents.

Complete A-Hole

Where does this label come from? For me, it has nothing to do with the cheating. In every sport we watch, many top-level athletes cheat. After a certain age, I've gotten numb to any news that involves an athlete getting caught with some performance-enhancing drug or testing positive with steroids. As fans, we've gotten used to the cheating athletes being outed in Congressional Reports, in some cases still denying it even when the mountain of proof against them would seem like too much for any rational human being to avoid a confession of some sorts.

Armstrong was a cheat, yes. But what has me dislike him to the highest levels of the douchebag scale was the way he threatened anyone and everyone who dared implicate him with the cycling doping scandals.

Here is an excerpt from a story published last week, in which a former cyclist and his wife were threatened for many years by Armstrong and his associates (for full article, click here):

Together with then-fiance Frankie, she (Betsy Andreu) visited Armstrong as he received treatment for testicular cancer in 1996 and was party to a conversation he had with two doctors while she was in the room.

According to Betsy Andreu, Armstrong admitted then that he had been taking EPO, testosterone, growth hormone, cortisone and steroids to improve his cycling.

David Walsh, a journalist, became aware of that incident via an off the record statement from Betsy Andreu in 2003, but Armstrong quickly got word that she had revealed his secret.

He responded by starting an intimidation campaign that lasted years.

When Andreu refused to sign a statement in support of Armstrong and discrediting Walsh, the American began a media smear campaign against Andreu.

Armstrong’s former physical therapist Emma O’Reilly was another who tried to expose the cyclist who labelled her a “prostitute” and an “alcoholic”.

As rumours of drug use continued to swirl around Armstrong in 2008, Betsy Andreu meanwhile was left a sinister voicemail from a friend and former business associate of Armstrong.

“I hope somebody breaks a baseball bat over your head,” it said.

“I also hope that one day you have adversity in your life and you have some type of tragedy that will definitely make an impact on you.”

There are stories like this documented by many of the cyclists who outed Armstrong as a drug-user and were subsequently threatened by him. It was bad enough he cheated and lied. That much is easy enough for sports fans to deal with - we're used to it. In fact, the average person, if they really thought about it, can look back at something or someone in their lives that they've cheated on or lied to/about.

But when it comes to threats, especially to dozens of people and over a prolonged period of time, that's where I draw the line. Instead of recognizing the guy as a humanitarian of epic proportions for his charitable works, I remember him for being a selfish arrogant prick who would do whatever he could and run over anyone he could to succeed, and then threaten anyone who dared question what he was doing.

If we left it at just the cheating, and hell, maybe even a small fib here or there, I don't think I'd have this ill will towards him. But the threats that came from him and his camp just add a notch in his asshole belt. It's a shame that a man, on one hand, helped so many cancer patients with hope and inspiration, while with the other hand was damning and undoing the work of what the first hand accomplished.

If you want to continue to like him for the humanitarian he is, remember this: a true humanitarian would never resort to threatening anyone for any reason. 

2013 AFC/NFC Divisional Game Analysis and a Quick Look at Next Weekend

As I expected, this weekend of football (aside from the last game) was a solid display of NFL action. Shockingly, I got all 4 of the winners right.

Random thoughts from the weekend:

1. Peyton Manning can't be completely blamed for the Broncos' double overtime loss to the Ravens (John Fox's ultra-conservative approach to the end of the game with 2 timeouts and 30+ seconds definitely didn't make sense), but with this being the eighth time one of his teams has lost in its first playoff game in 12 postseason appearances, he will probably take a good chunk of the blame. His interceptions sure didn't help, but there's no excuse for Baltimore being able to throw a bomb like that with less than a minute left to tie up the game. For Jacoby Jones to get behind the secondary that easily puzzles me. Don't get me wrong, Flacco made a hell of a throw. But with the kind of arm Flacco has, there has to be better deep coverage than that. Because of that throw, Denver goes home and Baltimore advances.
2. Enough of the "Is Joe Flacco Elite?" crap on TV. Can't we just call him a damn good quarterback that has the ability to lead his team to playoff glory? His playoff record (7-4, including 5-4 on the road) shows what he is capable of, and if it wasn't for Lee Evans' drop last year, he'd be going after his second straight Super Bowl appearance. In the past, Flacco needed the defense to carry him to victory. Now, it's Joe Cool that's doing the heavy lifting, as evidenced by his 331 yards and 3 TDs (no interceptions). That puts his postseason numbers for this year at 613 yards, 5 TDs and no picks. Not bad. Elite? Who cares. There's no need to put a label on the guy or anyone for that matter. Leave that to the losers at ESPN that need to debate everything up to and including whether Jay Cutler is to blame for RG3's injury.
3. Colin Kaepernick showed exactly why Jim Harbaugh stuck with the Nevada quarterback after he replaced Alex Smith due to a concussion in the middle of the season. After throwing a pick-6 on the Niners first possession, Kaepernick settled into the game quite nicely, totaling a mind-blowing 444 yards (including an NFL-record for QBs - 181 rushing yards) and four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing). As a Niners fan, I am delighted with the change in QB and that Harbaugh stuck with this decision despite how Alex Smith started the year. It took some balls, and Harbaugh has a big pair of them.
4. One of the key points I thought would help the Niners win on Saturday was holding onto the ball for a significant time edge over the Packers, which they did. The Niners held the ball for almost a 2/1 advantage in time, helped greatly by the team's effectiveness on the ground (43 carries, 323 yards). If the Niners can maintain this offensive efficiency, a sixth Lombardi trophy is likely in their future.
5. The Falcons made things way more interesting than they needed to be. After blowing a 20 point lead, Atlanta was led down the field by Matt Ryan, with Matt Bryant booting home a 49-yard kick with 13 seconds left. What was most baffling was the terrible coaching decisions made by Mike Smith in the second half. Some of the bad decisions that nearly cost the Falcons a chance of advancing: (a) not going for 2 when up 19 late in the third quarter. At this point in the game, there's no reason not to go for 2 to go up 21. And no, this isn't hindsight - it's math. Whether you're up by 19 or 21, the opposing team will be going after three touchdowns, especially that late in the game; (b) calling a timeout with 13 seconds left instead of letting the time slip to 3 seconds to make the field goal the final play of the game & (c) having Matt Bryant essentially kick an onside kick that gave Russell Wilson a chance at a Hail Mary attempt. I don't watch the Falcons enough to know if Mike Smith always coaches like this, but I have to believe that the Niners have a huge coaching advantage entering the NFC Championship game. Perhaps that's why the line went from 2 to 3.5 in no time.
6. Despite the furious fourth quarter comeback, the Seahawks fell short, but that doesn't deter any from what Russell Wilson was able to accomplish this season. Despite being drafted in the third round by a team who just shelled out tens of millions on a QB in the offseason, Wilson was able to earn the starting role in the preseason. In the year of the rookie QB, Wilson led his team further than any of them. It's going to be fun watching him in the next decade as the Niners scheme to stop the speedster slinger.
7. The Patriots took care of business, as expected. Tom Brady did his best Tom Brady impression (25-40, 344 yards, 3 TDs) in the victory. Outside of the opening kick of the game, which allowed the Texans to get a brief 3-0 lead, the Patriots controlled this game throughout. The score (41-28) was helped by a couple of fourth quarter Texans touchdowns, but it didn't feel that close. The Patriots' win sets the stage for a rematch of the AFC Championship last year. I believe it will be just as close as last year.
8. After watching the Texans down the stretch and in their brief playoff appearance, I was left wondering: is this as good as the Texans will be? As my man Bomani Jones said, Matt Schaub is a good QB - not great, not terrible, but good - the epitome of good. I don't see Gary Kubiak ever out-coaching the likes of Belichick in situations like this. They may be stuck in the "good, but not great" category for an indefinite time, until they get either a new coach, a new QB, or both.

Championship Games

I've had a few hours now to soak in the championship games. Before I go into that, I'd like to bring up some stats I found relating to the history of these conference championship games:

• This is the first year since 1995 where there were three teams who made the championship game from the previous year. Baltimore, New England and San Francisco helped break that streak.
• There's never been an instance in the Super Bowl era where all 4 teams in AFC/NFC Championship games made it back-to-back years.
• Between 1970 and 1999 (the dynasty era of football), there were only three instances of no teams in either conference making the game in back-to-back years. Since 2000 (14 seasons), there have been seven times where the conference games from the previous year were filled with all new teams compared to the year before.
• San Francisco is the first NFC team to make it to consecutive championship games since the Eagles did it 2002-2005. They are also battling Atlanta next weekend as one of them will be looking to become the 11th different NFC team in the past 12 years to make the Super Bowl. That leaves the loser, Detroit, Minnesota, Washington & Dallas as the only NFC teams not to make the Super Bowl in that time.
• The last five NFC Championship games have been decided by 7 points or less, including three overtime games. I wouldn't be surprised if this year's game becomes the sixth one in a row.

Atlanta/San Francisco - These teams advanced to this round in opposite ways - San Fran with a slow start that was followed by a strong closing three quarters, with Atlanta struggling to the finish line in its narrow victory. A couple of questions on my mind as the game approaches:

1. Will Kaepernick be able to build off of his first playoff game? It's hard to get much better than he showed.
2. How much of a factor will the crowd be? Kaepernick did well in some hostile environments (New Orleans, New England) but not so well in the land of the 12th Man (Seattle). If Atlanta gets really loud, I'm wondering how Kaep will be able to handle the offense. An early lead is important.
3. Is it just me, or does the Niners defense not seem the same as it did at the beginning of the year? There have been a few injuries on defense, notably Justin Smith with a partially torn triceps. I know the quality of opponent was high in the second half of the year (road games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson stick out in mind), but the high scores of these games was unusual to say the least. It's nice to know we can win high scoring games, because this NFC Championship game might be a barnburner.

With all of that being said, I see the Niners advancing to their sixth Super Bowl next week. Preliminary prediction is 34-27.

New England/Baltimore - I see this game playing out a lot like their AFC Championship tilt last year (and also their regular season match-up this year). It seems ridiculous that the Ravens are 9-point underdogs when earlier this year, they were 2.5 point favorites against the Patriots. I see this being a higher scoring game - Baltimore's defense is for once being carried by the offense. I see the Patriots squeezing out a 30-27 victory to advance to their second Super Bowl in a row (and sixth in the past 12 years).

2013 NFL Divisional Predictions

Vegas was mostly a disaster gambling-wise last weekend. My NFL predictions went 2-2, but the other sports did me in. So much so, combined with my bad run the past 4-5 weeks, I decided to take a little break from handicapping these games. That doesn't mean I can't offer my contractually obligated Divisional predictions for this week.

Dating back to the Giants' first Super Bowl run in 2008, there has been at least one team favored by 7+ points who has lost every year in this round:

• 2008 - NYG upset Dallas as 7-point underdogs (21-17). I refer to this game as the "Scream Game", as this was the first big bet I ever won while in Vegas. It also happened to occur while I took a nap throughout the entire game. I was literally tired of losing every single bet I had made up until that point.  I woke up as the post-game was about to start and saw the final score and flipped out.
  
  San Diego also beat Indianapolis as 10.5 point underdogs on the same day (28-24). Boy, do I envy those crazy fools who parlayed SD & NYG money lines that day.
  
• 2009 - No one gave Arizona (+10) much of a chance against the Carolina Panthers in this particular year, but they should have. Hell, Arizona covered the reverse spread, winning easily 33-13 en route to to their franchise's first-ever Super Bowl run.
  
• 2010 - With how underachieving Norv Turner's teams have been, their loss to the Jets as 7.5 point favorites might not surprise people much. But there was enough of a talent difference (as was the case in the Norv era) for them to be favored by this much. The Jets won the defensive battle 17-14. With how bad the Jets are, this game feels like it happened a lot longer than 3 years ago.
  
• 2011 - After being destroyed in their last regular season tilt against the Patriots, the Jets were not given much of a chance to win the playoff matchup between the two in Foxboro, closing as a +9.5 underdog. As the story goes, the Jets won this straight up, 28-21
  
• 2012 - The Giants do it again, this time against Green Bay. The Giants (+8) dismantled the Packers 37-20, the second playoff step in their second championship run in the Eli era.

Random note: the last three of these upsets occurred in the last game of the weekend. So if the Ravens don't pull off the upset, don't be surprised if the Texans do it on Sunday afternoon.

Naturally, I bring these recent trends up because I anticipate one of the big dogs to win this weekend. Another Brady versus Manning AFC Championship game seems too good to be true.

Without further ado:

Baltimore 24, Denver 20 - This is more of a gut-feeling play than anything. I see Baltimore being the team that continues this trend. Normally, teams in this spot (blown out by the opponent in the regular season match-up) fair much better in the playoff rematch. Joe Flacco gets critiqued a lot, but he's won a playoff game in his first five years in the league, including a 4-4 road record. He has more career playoff road wins than many of the legends, including Peyton (2-4 road record) & Brady (3-2). 

There's too many Peyton playoff games that come to mind where he loses in this spot. In his previous 11 trips to the playoffs with the Colts, Manning went one-and-done seven times, including losses as a home team in four of them (three of which were off of a bye). The two Super Bowl runs are responsible for six of his nine career playoff wins (9-10 overall record).

San Francisco 21, Green Bay 17 - I'm torn both ways on this game. I worry about the Justin Smith injury and how effective he will be with a partially torn triceps. He sets everything up for Aldon Smith, who was  able to set the franchise record for sacks largely due to the attention that Justin draws on the line. I'm being the optimistic Niners fan boy here and saying Justin will be effective enough to help Aldon out and also help the rush defense.

I expect a game of ground-and-pound with Gore, who should get 25+ carries. Kaepernick will be facing an under-rated defense, which is getting players healthy at the right time of the year. I worry a little about our receiving depth - gonna need Randy Moss to step up.

In the end, I believe San Francisco's defense will hold up just enough to take this game.

Atlanta 28, Seattle 18 - It would shock no one if the Seahawks continued their roll and advanced to the NFC title game, especially given Atlanta's recent history of playoff ineptitude. I feel folks are sleeping on the Falcons and we haven't seen the best of them. I expect Matt Ryan to finally put together a solid playoff game  and send the Seahawks packing.

New England 27, Houston 20 - I don't see Houston getting spanked by New England again. These revenge match-ups benefit the team who got blown out in the previous match-up. Houston will want to neutralize Brady by feeding the ball to Arian Foster constantly (like I mentioned in the San Fran write-up for Gore). However, I don't think they can completely neutralize their passing attack, which will be enough for the Patriots to take this game.


Feel free to offer your own predictions. I look forward to being way wrong about these games.

Go Niners!

Fit Happens - A Healthy Contest Between Four Fatties (Chapter 1)

Good evening everyone.

You may have seen my Facebook post about this on New Year's Day, but in case you didn't, I joined a weight loss challenge with some friends that I have dubbed "Fit Happens". The fact that it started on New Year's goes against my idea of needing to change things at the start of a new year (I am a believer that New Year's Resolutions fail because people use the new year as an excuse to change something about themselves instead of actually wanting to change).

Nevertheless, the contest started on Day 1 of 2013, with the four contestants (myself, LionEsquire, Hippo & Dave) weighing in at close to a 1000 pounds. In this six month contest, the winner will be the one who loses the highest percentage of weight in the six month period.

The winner of each month (largest percentage lost) gets $10 each from the other contestants, with the overall winner netting $50 from everyone else. While that is a motivator, below is what will keep people from tanking in the contest.

In the event you may be losing the contest by a wide-margin, there is a clause that prevents me and my fellow fatties from tanking the contest and going back to their obese selves.

• If you fail to lose 7.5% of your weight in the contest, you must change your gamer tag (your video-game name/alias) for a year. Apparently this is a big deal in the video game community - I haven't played a video game since one of the Maddens like 3-4 years ago on PS2. Or for people like me (actually the only one in the contest not affected by the above), I must change my Facebook profile picture for a month. 7.5% is feasible - about 18 pounds in 6 months.
• The dreaded fatty clause is if one fails to lose 2.5% of their weight. In this scenario, the loser(s) must go out with the others to dinner in a dress. With how quickly everyone has lost weight so far, I don't see this happening.

I weighed myself today for the first time since the new year and went from 235.6 to 229.2 pounds (6.4 pounds). I'm sure most of it is water weight, but hey, it's progress. I'm actually shocked it was this much, given the fact I was in Vegas for four days, not consuming what many would call a "good diet", unless you think mai tais with cherries and pineapple is a good diet.

However, based on previous quests to lose weight, I know the easiest pounds to lose are the early ones - the later ones are the ones that are challenging. It's going to be difficult to lose in months 3 & 4, if my previous experience to lose weight is any indicator

Some new habits that I'm trying to institute for the New Year (aside from my Vegas trip - what happened there stayed there anyways). These goals are likely to be expanded upon as I progress through the contest:

1. Water, water, water - In the New Year, all I've had back here on the mainland (shhh, Vegas is an island, don't let maps fool you) is water and a couple of White Russians. It's been nothing but water otherwise.
2. Less eating - I still don't have the best diet, but what I've been doing is eating less and spreading out my eating throughout the day.
3. Eating out less - I believe me and Jen have only ordered out once since the year began, which is impressive since we usually end up doing it at least 2-3 times a week.
4. Exercising - I finally started using the gym in our basement. My goal is to use it about 100 times during this contest (which goes till June 30th). I am up to 4 in the first 11 days. I'll sneak in a workout tomorrow before my unofficial birthday celebration at The Shamrock to keep the pace up.

That's it for now. I don't have a timeframe on how often I will update this. I may even interview the fellow contestants at some point to see what they are doing to lose weight and improve their overall fitness.

30 Years Old, But Young at Fart (err...Heart)

With me being such a numbers guy and one who likes to reflect in blog form to my dozens of readers, I'm surprised that I didn't immediately write a synopsis on what it felt like to turn 30 just a week ago.

But once my 30th birthday actually hit on midnight last week, I realized that it was just another day. Just like many of the tens of thousands of it before.

I stayed up watching highlights of the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl (or for NIU fans, lowlights) with one of the cats next to me as I stared blankly at the boob tube. Once the hour and minute hit, I thought about it.

Cool...I'm 30. Then I went about my death stare as if it was just another birthday.

I know some people are age-obsessed and get caught up in the numbers of their life. To me, that's just the wrong way to live, unless of course you're obsessing about ages that get you certain privileges (like driving, buying alcohol, etc.).

If you are 40 years old and have the youthful spirit of a 20 year old, then I say you're 20. Don't obsess about some empty round numbers that should have no bearing on how you view yourself.

To me, being 30 does seem to add a pinch of maturity to my being. But if you are ever around me, you know my maturity level is that of a 15 year old. To prove my point, as I type this, I'm proudly wearing a t-shirt that says "Behold...Fartacus", one that I may or may not have worn two straight days.

This shirt, which I may have worn for two straight days, may be smelling like ...well....yeah.

I plan on living my 31st year on Earth the same way I did the first 30 - laughing, watching sports, enjoying time with family and friends, joking about farts. And farting. Excuse my gas, but I believe I have to maintain a certain level of immaturity to keep myself young at heart.

I hope to enjoy this year, as I always do, with the people I love doing the things I love (you know who you are). In the meantime, let's make 2013 a year for the books.

I Spy(Gate) Another Championship: NFL Playoff Preview & A Look Back at My Preseason Picks

Playoffs are here - I'd say there were some mild surprises in Week 17.

Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.

And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.

A look back at my predictions:

As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.

I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).

To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.

My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det

Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.

Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.


2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)

Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:

AFC:

Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)

NFC:

Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)

Round 1:

Game by game

Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20

Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.

Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.

Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.

If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.

AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing

NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.

AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)

Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta

Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.

I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.

Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.