MLB - A Look Back (Preseason Predictions) & A Look Forward (Playoff Preview)

Note: I wrote most of this on Saturday (Sept 29th) under the notion that the White Sox fade would continue (it did), but I did not expect the Athletics to steal the division away from the Rangers, so my predictions are edited as such.

Please feel free to offer your own post-season predictions. Enjoy.

Good day to you all. I hope you enjoyed the end of the baseball season as much as I did - except for the White Sox not making the playoffs part. For a team that was projected to win about 75 games, they held their own most of the season, but the Tigers' last season surge timed out perfectly with the White Sox Swoon.

Before breaking down the playoffs, I'd like to see how well my projections from late February ended up turning out.

Here's a look at it, just so you have proof: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2012/02/were-talkin-baseball-2012-mlb-preview.html


PLAYOFFS?!?
What went right: Giants, Nationals, Tigers, Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals
What went wrong: Marlins, Phillies, Angels, Rays
Who replaced the wrong: Braves, Reds, A's, Orioles

Notes: I had the Nats as a Wild Card and Cardinals as a division champion - but they both made the playoffs, so I'm happy to get it somewhat right. The Nationals surprised even the most optimistic of people on what they did this year. Question is - will the shutting down of Strasburg hurt them in the playoffs? Short series requires good pitching - one less great pitcher has to diminish their chances of winning it all.  I'd love to see the Reds advance to the World Series (I made a bet in early August for them to win it all at 10/1 odds), but I wonder if they have enough consistent arms to face the Giants, who have developed into a well-rounded team who have somehow gotten better without Mr. Testosterone (Melky Cabrera).

Can you believe that during the season, the Athletics were as high as 100/1 just to win their division? This was at the beginning of July when the Athletics were a season-high 13 games back from Texas. At that time, Oakland was 37-42 - they would go on to close the season on a 57-26 run to overtake the Rangers in the AL West. I like this team, but I don't like their draw (vs. Detroit). I see Detroit taking the series in 4.

Miguel Cabrera: From triple the legal limit (maybe not that high) to Triple Crown

The Tigers woke up in September after being out of first for pretty much the whole year. I have my money on the Rangers and A's to win the World Series (among 5 teams I bet - others include the Reds, Phillies and D-Backs), so I'm obviously rooting for one of them to make it there and win it all. However, I have the Tigers pegged as my AL favorites now. Getting two starts from Verlander (should the series go long), arguably the best starting pitcher remaining in the playoffs, with the lineup they have, I think they'll be able to overtake the Rangers this year and advance to the playoffs.

OVER/UNDERS (Total projected wins & my predictions)

How I did: 17-13

My best division was the NL West, which I was able to project 4 out of 5 teams totals correctly (missing on the Padres, who I had going under their projected total of 73.5). I also did well with the AL West, missing only on the Mariners.

I did below average with projecting the AL Central team's over/unders (I got the White Sox over & Twins under right).

I didn't guess any of the 30 teams exact records, but I was within 3 wins on ten separate teams.

The teams I did the worst predictions for: Baltimore 65 wins (won 93, "only" 28 wins off), Miami 92 wins (won 69 - 23 off), Oakland 74 wins (they won 94), Boston 87 wins (they won 69) and Cincy 80 wins (won 97). I find it funny that I have World Series bets alive with two of these teams


Individual Predictions:

What went right: Miguel Cabrera for AL MVP; David Price for AL Cy Young
What went wrong: Hanley for NL MVP; Halladay for NL Cy; Stanton for NL HR leader; Jose Bautista (in the Feb preview, I put Jose Cabrera, so perhaps I should get half credit for forgetting his name like a dumbass)

Notes: These votes won't be known till next month, but I feel good about Cabrera's chances of winning the MVP - he'd be the second Tiger in a row to win the MVP (Verlander). Likewise, Price is among a few AL pitchers who should be considered for the Cy (Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver - hell, Verlander with a "down" year compared to 2011 should also be considered).

When I went all-in with the Marlins, I set myself up for failure when thinking Hanley might win MVP this year. Even when healthy this year, Halladay wasn't Cy Young material. Stanton did finish top-5 in the NL in home runs, but finished way behind Ryan Braun. Jose Bautista (or Jose Cabrera as I called him in Feb) was doing well before getting hurt in July (averaging a HR every 15/16 at bats). He may have had a chance to win it. Oh well. I guess the Hanley & Roy predictions were the only really bad ones.

2012 Playoff Predictions (Version 3.0):

AL Wild Card (one game playoff): Rangers over O's (as long as it's not a one-run game or goes into extras)
NL Wild Card (one game playoff): Braves over Cards (Kris Medlen doesn't lose)

AL Divisional Round: Tigers over A's (I hope I'm wrong here); Rangers over Yanks
NL Divisional Round: Giants over Reds (I hope I'm wrong here too); Braves over Nationals

ALCS: Tigers over Rangers (initial prediction: Yankees over Tigers)
NLCS: Giants over Braves (initial prediction: Marlins over Giants)

World Series: Tigers over Giants (initial prediction: Marlins over Yankees)


Who I have left for World Series bets placed in-season (Rangers - 100 to win 450; A's - 30 to win 1200; Reds - 50 to win 500)

The Bear Necessities: A 2012 Preview from Bears' Fans Point of View

With all the coverage I did on fans of out-of-market teams, I figured I should ask some questions to some Bears fans and see what they thought of this year. I was able to get nine fans to respond to the questions I sent them.

For the record, I have the Bears at 11-5 and winning the NFC North. I like their Super Bowl odds of 26/1 that can currently be found on 5dimes.com, although I don't have them winning it. I just find it to be good value.

Jennette Swick (w/ her b/f Chris)

Most of the people interviewed (ages range from early 20s to mid 40s) have been fans their whole lives. Jennette Swick's parents, whose first anniversary was the day the Bears won the Super Bowl in 1986, raised her on the Bears from a young age. On Sundays in the Fall, you'll catch her in her Dick Butkus jersey at Buffalo Wild Wings watching the game with the guys in her boyfriend Chris' fantasy league.

She admires players like Butkus who she believes played for the love of the game.

"They weren't making multimillion dollar contracts and doing hold outs," she said. "Yet alone, they were out there playing with broken bones."

While she's able to watch her Bears on a weekly basis, Sherman Griffin seems to have issues with getting a job that allows him to be off on Sundays.

Peanut Lovers

Like Jennette and several others who completed this survey, Sherman's favorite player is Peanut Tillman. He likes the way that Peanut plays.

"He hustles and gives me a chance to yell 'BALL' during the game," Sherman said.

Jennette and Brad Zoeteman, the youngest of survey participants, cited Peanut as their favorite based on his off-the-field endeavors.

"He definitely has a big heart when it comes to charities," Jennette said, "and I believe he plays with a lot of heart."

Brad's pre-game routine is similar to Jennette's, except he has a customized jersey that he has to put on before every game.

Concerns about 2012

Unlike many people who cited the Bears' offensive line as a potential worry heading into 2012, Brad is more worried about the health of the defensive core, which includes Peanut, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher & Julius Peppers.

"Finally a great offense, but now the defense is gonna crumble," Brad said.

Brandon Marshall/Jay Cutler

Most believe that Brandon Marshall will have an immediate impact. Don Flynn is predicting 1200 yards and nine visits to the end zone, while Bears fanatic Elias Valaveris is tabbing Marshall for 100 catches, 1300 yards and 10 TDs.

Paul Bodenlos (left), who apparently loves ranch.

Nick Pazoles thinks Marshall will be the best receiver the franchise has had in a long time, but feels his value is being overblown with all the weaknesses they have.

"The two biggest worries are directly tied together: weak offensive line and Cutler's health," Nick said. "People seem to ignore the fact that he has been hurt the last two seasons."

Paul Bodenlos agrees with the Cutler worry.

"This year's team can make a deep run," he said. "But the Bears proved already that a healthy Cutler is the key to the team's success."

As soon as Cutler joined the team, he instantly became Elias' favorite player. He likes his attitude and thinks Cutler is the best quarterback the Bears have ever had.

"I think he is a bad ass and doesn't care what people think of him," he said. "That is a quality that QB's should have. I'm so tired of watching all the scrubs that the Bears have had the past couple of years. I like watching a real QB."

Predictions

Everyone who answered the survey (all nine) believes the Bears will be at/above 8 wins. The most optimistic of predictions have the Bears winning the Super Bowl (Elias, Sherman, Rick Ryzner, Bob Flynn), while others seem to believe the Bears will be around 10 wins, which is slightly above what Vegas projects for the team (over/under 9.5 wins).

"I don't think there are any questions about them besides the O-Line," Sherman said. "They have been phenomenally better than in previous years."

Rick, whose been a fan since the early 80s, is the eternal optimist when it comes to the Bears and their Super Bowl chances.

"I always predict they're going all the way," he said. "Don't care if I'm wrong in the end."

Like many others, Rick's been to multiple games (in his case, a total of 10). He had the privilege of meeting Walter Payton, who was cited the most as favorite Bear of all time.

Pre-Game Rituals/DA COACH

Bob Flynn

Bob Flynn is among those who admire Sweetness. Bob, the man with the mustache, became a fan of the Bears when Ditka grew out his stache. He has the most established and detailed routine of those who participated in the survey.

Bob has a picture sketch of "DA COACH" in a frame on his wall that he prays to before games. Depending on the situation, he will drink Ditka wine during the games.Whether he watches the game out on the deck or in the living room, Bob has to sit in his round Chicago Bears egg chair.

"It's the only way," he said.

Paul was lucky enough to meet Ditka the night of his bachelor party in Vegas.

"Getting to shake his hand may sway my favoritism," Paul said.

He also has a good ritual, at least in my eyes.

"Pregame routine consists of cracking open a beer, drink the beer. And then cracking open another beer. And then another, and another, and another," said Paul, who recently moved to Arizona and will rely on Sirius radio to listen to Bears games. Luckily, he has a Bears bar within walking distance that he plans on attending a few times this year.

Super Bowl Shuffle

Don in his Forte jersey with his friend Christopher.

Bob doesn't remember the words to the whole Super Bowl Shuffle, but he has a chance to memorize them now that he has an original cassette tape of it. He will likely be playing it on a continuous loop if his prediction of a Bears over Patriots Super Bowl comes in.

His brother Don also doesn't know all the words of the hit 80s song, but he has an excuse.

"Years of drinking way too much made me forget a lot," Don said.

No one surveyed said they knew all of the lyrics, but Nick had a particular favorite part of the song that he remembers.

"If you put the music on, I could sing along," Nick said. "Gary Fencik is by far my favorite part."


Memorable Moments

Everyone surveyed has been to at least one Bears game except Sherman, who is hoping to change that this year.

Here's some of their favorite moments:

Jennette (doesn't remember the exact game): It was snowing so hard, we could barely see a thing cause the wind was whipping it around and we were freezing. Now that I look back at that, it was the only way to truly enjoy a classic Bears game.

Bob (opening day of 2005 season): The Bears beat the Lions pretty impressively that day but the awesome thing comes in my personal experience. I got to meet Keith Van Horne of the 85 Bears and got to see his Super Bowl ring right up close.

Don (vs Broncos): Bears over Broncos in overtime. Two run backs by Hester in the game.

Rick (vs Tampa Bay): 7 degrees against Tampa was a fun game - Tampa lost.

Elias (right) and yours truly at SF/Chi 2009

Elias (vs San Fran in San Fran, November 2009): I will always remember Cutler throwing five interceptions and almost somehow winning the game. And then we didn't get that bus back to the hotel for a while and I was pretty pissed.

Brad (vs. Detroit): Some broad was wearing a Favre jersey and they put her on the Jumbotron and the place erupted in boo's. Then she gave the finger.

Nick Pazoles: no memorable moments.

Paul (week 17 game a few years back in a game not featuring the Carolina Panthers): My sister was dating her husband at the time. The Bears were out of the playoffs. But it was one of the coldest days on record. We stayed all four quarters of a meaningless game...My brother-in-law is a Panthers fan.

Brief College Football Preview + Week 1 Predictions

I've waited until the last possible minute to provide a college football preview, mainly because my knowledge of the sport is lacking and I didn't think I'd be able to provide an in-depth preview anyways. I don't really keep up with the signings, but rather rely on industry experts (including some of my Twitter followers) and a few friends who partake in plenty of Saturday football sessions.

Check out Berserk Hippo Podcast - 2012 College Preview

Instead of providing a full-blown preview with analysis, I'll link you to my friend's podcast should you have the desire to learn a little bit more about the thoughts of knowledgeable college football fanatics. Nick Pazoles (@BerserkHippo) and Chris Williams (@cmwilliams51) run through each of the major conferences, with a special focus on the Big Ten, and make their picks to win each conference. They also provide a few surprise teams to watch and their BCS title predictions: Berserk Hippo Podcast - College Football 2012 Preview


I suggest taking a listen of it for more in-depth talk. Here's their predictions (and mine, just for the hell of it) summarized:

	Hippo	Williams	Bolek
Big Ten Legends	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan St.
Big Ten Leaders	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Ohio State*
BTC Winner	Wisconsin	Michigan	Wisconsin
SEC Champ	Georgia	Alabama	LSU
PAC-12	USC	USC	USC
Big 12	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Texas
ACC	Clemson	Clemson	Florida St
Big East	Louisville	Louisville	Cincinnati
Darkhorse Title Winner	Virginia Tech	Clemson	Oregon
Title Loser	Georgia	Alabama	USC
Title Winner	USC	USC	LSU
			*cannot play in Big
			Ten Championship - I
			have Wisconsin as
			Division representative

I'd be careful about using my division picks for betting purposes. I like LSU to make it to the title game again and this time win it - lots of talent on both sides of the ball. They may have one-loss entering the game, but I feel that their win in the SEC title game will be enough to boost them to title game status. Ohio State was under-coached last year - Urban Meyer brings out the best in college recruits, and OSU has plenty of talented ones. Texas has plenty of starters coming back from a team that bounced back from a mediocre 2010 bowl-less season to an 8-5 record - I think they'll outlast Oklahoma for the crown. Florida St. could have the best defense in the nation, although they seem to be a team (like Georgia) that lately seems to lose at the worst possible times. I just basically threw a dart in my head and came up with Cincinnati -the Big East will once again be unwatchable, especially now with West Virginia leaving the conference.

We all have USC in the championship game. Everything I've heard about them makes me think they are a lock to make it to the title game. Only game I could see them tripping up on is against Oregon at home or in the Pac-12 championship game. Also, I'd be weary of their last road game against UCLA the week before their home tilt against Notre Dame. Not saying UCLA is talented, but sometimes talented teams fall asleep on the road a week before a rivalry match-up.

As far as my picks for Week 1 go, I'm going with South Carolina -6.5, Alabama -14 (hoping to get a lower number), Navy +15 & Ohio +6.5 (hoping it goes to 7). Picks are subject to change and may include additional bets. I will do my best to edit this as the bets are placed - best bet is to check my Twitter (@BrianBolek or #BolekPicks).

Hope everyone is looking forward to football as much as I am.

The Ultimate Bolek NFL Preview - 2012 Edition

Mugshot of Marshawn Lynch after his DUI arrest

Has your favorite NFL player been convicted of a crime this offseason? If he hasn't, then he's not trying as hard as he should.

With 27 NFL players being cuffed for some type of offense in the past five months, there's a chance that you're a fan of one of these players. In the past couple weeks alone, Adrian Peterson, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch, among like 900 others, had some sort of DUI or altercation that seems to be an epidemic as the season approaches.

Aside from that, there were the usual free agent moves. Peyton joining the Mile High Club by heading to the Broncos. Like Kevin Kolb of last year, Matt Flynn cashed in on a couple good starts and signs with an NFC West team desperate for a quarterback. And despite winning the Super Bowl, the Giants are somehow not the talk of New York, as some team who shares a stadium with them traded for a polarizing fullback quarterback that will surely add some drama to an already contentious locker room.

The questions you want to know will be answered below. For my Bears fans, what should you expect from this season? Will my Niners regress this year after a sterling 2011 season that saw them win their first division in almost a decade?

An amazing fact found in this article shows that history is against the Niners (and the Lions & Texans) when it comes to teams who rebounded from sub-.500 records one year to double digit wins the next. Out of the 29 teams who have done this in the past decade, 26 of them regressed to 9 or less wins in year 3. In fact, the average team in this situation loses 4 more games in year 3 than they did in year 2.

I've included my predictions along with what offshore sportsbook 5Dimes is projecting from each team.

Aside from the fact above about regression, if you're betting on totals in the NFL, it's a very profitable angle to bet on the Over for teams projected for less than 6 wins. Keep that in mind if you think that betting on Cleveland, Indianapolis & Jacksonville unders are a layup of a bet.

NFL Predictions

AFC East

Mr GQ will have no problem winning the AFC East

NE (Over/Under 12 wins) - prediction: over (13)
NYJ (Over/Under  8.5) - prediction: under (6)
Buff (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: over (10)
Mia (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: under (6)

(Predicted finish: NE 13-3, Buff 10-6, NYJ 6-10, Mia 6-10)


Thoughts: On average, there's about 2 or 3 teams every year that go from losing records to double digit wins. In my projection, I have Buffalo being one of those teams. They made a commitment on the defensive end, shoring up their passing rush by signing defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson and focused on defense in the first round of the draft. I still don't think they'll be a match for New England, who should continue to be the darlings of the AFC East. I expect the Jets to finish below .500 - I just don't see how having a plan to use two quarterbacks consistently is not going to be a locker room distraction.


AFC North


Pitt (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Balt (Over/Under 10) - prediction: under (9)
Cin (Over/Under 8) - prediction: under (7)
Cle (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: over (6)


(Predicted finish: Pitt 11-5, Balt 9-7, Cin 7-9, Cle 6-10)


Thoughts: If Polamalu & Big Ben stay healthy, I expect the Steelers to win back the AFC North from Baltimore, who lost Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs to a torn Achilles (currently rehabbing it, but likely to miss significant time at the very least). Baltimore should still be a playoff caliber team, but a dip in wins wouldn't surprise me. I expect Cincinnati to have a slight regression in Year 2 of the Andy Dalton era. I think Cleveland will be more competitive than normal, although for them, that still means only about 6 wins.


AFC South


Hou (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Ten (Over/Under 7) - prediction: push (7)
Jax (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: under (3)
Ind (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: over (6)


(Predicted finish: Hou 11-5, Ten 7-9, Indy 6-10, Jax 3-13)


Thoughts: Outside of the AFC East, this looks like the easiest division to project. Jacksonville & Indianapolis are clearly in rebuilding mode, with the Titans sandwiched in-between them and the Texans, who will likely win their second straight division title after not making the playoffs in their first nine years of existence. They won the division with relative ease last year, and that was without Matt Schaub down the stretch. I expect the Texans to take the next step and be a Super Bowl contender this year.


AFC West


SD (Over/Under 9) - prediction: under (7)
Den (Over/Under 8.5) - prediction: under (7)
KC (Over/Under 8) - prediction: over (10)
Oak (Over/Under 7) - prediction: over (8)


(Predicted finish: KC 10-6, Oak 8-8, SD 7-9, Den 7-9)

Gonna be weird seeing Peyton in orange (and out of the playoffs)

Thoughts: This division has been one of the hardest for me to read and project, but I think the Chiefs will get back to the top of the division. They lost so many folks in the very beginning of 2011 to various ligament tears that they never really had a chance - they somehow rebounded to come close to winning the very weak AFC West. The defensive minded coach (Romeo Crennel) will make a better impression in his second time around as head coach. I don't trust the Chargers to suddenly start doing great under Norv Turner, whose naked pictures of the GM and owners of the team (presumably anyways) allow him to keep coaching the team. I don't think the Broncos have enough talent around Peyton, who himself is coming off a year layoff and his third neck surgery and is nearing NFL extinction. I'll probably come back to eat these words when Peyton throws for 40 TDs.




AFC Playoffs (1-6 seeds): NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buff, Balt




NFC East


Phil (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (12)
NYG (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: under (7)
Dal (Over/Under 8.5) - prediction: over (9)
Wash (Over/Under 6.5) - prediction: over (7)


(Predicted Finish: Phil 12-4, Dal 9-7, NYG 7-9, Wash 7-9)


Thoughts: I'm drinking the Eagles Kool-Aid for the second year in a row. Unlike last year though, I feel like I'll be right this time around. I don't doubt their chances to win the division as long as Vick can stay healthy, which has always been a question for him in his career. I think the Giants will take a big step back (note how I didn't go with the pun of GIANT step back). Dallas will be on the fringe of the playoffs again, and Tony Romo will be to blame (as always). RGIII will bring some life to a Redskins franchise that hasn't been a perennial contender for the playoffs since the late 80s/early 90s.


NFC North


GB (Over/Under 12) - prediction: under (11)
Det (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: under (9)
Chi (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: over (11)
Min (Over/Under 6) - prediction: under (4)

If I have anything to say, these two will be all smiles come January

(Predicted Finish: Chicago 11-5 (wins tiebreaker), Green Bay 11-5, Det 9-7, Min 4-12)


Thoughts: My Bears friends are probably going to blame me if they fail to live up to higher than normal expectations, but I believe they got better pieces than last year and should benefit from better health w/ Cutler and Forte (who with his new contract, hopefully will not suffer from Chris Johnsonitis), which is what cost them a chance at the playoffs down the stretch last year. Their defense is never something that needs questioning, as that has been Lovie's forte (pun somewhat intended). Green Bay's offense hid some of the flaws that their defense showed last year. The offense should still be its juggernaut self, but I believe that with the rest of the division (save Minnesota) is catching up with them, it will be difficult for them to get over 12 wins.


NFC South

Expect to see this shirt (or a version of it) worn all year in NO

New Orleans (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Atlanta (Over/Under 9) - prediction: under (7)
Carolina (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: over (9)
Tampa (Over/Under 6) - prediction: push (6)


(Predicted Finish: New Orleans 11-5, Carolina 9-7, Atlanta 7-9, Tampa 6-10)


Thoughts: At first, I was on the bandwagon that New Orleans would be distracted this season by the bounty stuff and miss out on the playoffs. However, the more I thought about it and realized that New Orleans' home field is going to be even more crazy with their "us against the world" mentality that they have with their coach being suspended for the year, the more I thought to myself - I could easily see them go 7-1 or even 8-0 again at home, especially with the way Brees slings it. I expect Carolina to take a big step forward and Atlanta take a step back, which will result in Mike Smith being fired at the end of the year.


NFC West

San Fran (Over/Under 10) - prediction: under (9)
Arizona (Over/Under 7) - prediction: over (8)
Seattle (Over/Under 7) - prediction: under (5)
St. Louis (Over/Under 6) - prediction: under (4)


(Predicted Finish: San Fran 9-7, Arizona 8-8, Seattle 5-11, St. Louis 4-12)

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Randy Moss making a big impact for the Niners

Thoughts: San Francisco benefited from an improbable +28 turnover ratio and great health last year (only 8 total games missed by defensive starters). The turnover rate will go down, but it's possible that the lack of defensive injuries will not. I found that the Niners' string of "luck" in the health dept is no fluke - between 2008-2010, the starters only missed 16 total games on defense: source. Even though with their signings on offense are pointing towards an improvement in production, I expect a regression for Alex Smith (17 TDs, 5 picks last year) which will negate some of the signings. Arizona finished the season out strong with John Skelton behind center, winning 7 of their last 9 games. I wouldn't be surprised if the Week 17 showdown between the Niners and the Cardinals is for the division title.

NFC Playoffs (1-6 Seeds): Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det




AFC Wild Card: Pitt over Balt, KC over Buff
NFC Wild Card: Chi over Det, GB over SF
AFC Divisionals: Hou over Pitt, NE over KC
NFC Divisionals:  Phil over GB, NO over Chi


AFC Championship: Hou over NE
NFC Championship: Phil over NO


Super Bowl: Phil over Hou


League MVP: Mike Vick (Phil)
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees (NO)
Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers (Chi)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck (Indy)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Morris Claiborne (Dallas)

Thoughts: Out of these 12 playoff teams, I guarantee I miss on 6 of them, maybe more. I went with the rule of thumb that there's usually about 4 new division winners from the previous year (I got Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Chicago & Philly fitting that bill). After my blog earlier last month about teams with value, I think New Orleans may have tremendous value on winning the Super Bowl, especially since the Big Game is in their home stadium. Imagine the noise that the AFC squad would have to deal with. I may make a futures bet on the Saints before the season starts, because it will get lower if they make a strong push as they did last year). If I could take that blog back, I'd have them as my best value team.

I'm expecting Vick to lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl title this year

Why the Eagles winning it all? I think I'm falling prey to how they closed and their overall level of talent at the skill positions. Maclin had medical issues that prevented him from being effective like he was in 2010. This prediction will probably flame out badly. Vick has problems staying healthy, but if he does, I think he will live up to his dumb comments (at least for one year) about the Eagles being a possible dynasty.

Why the Texans over Patriots in the AFC Championship? Lately it seems that the Patriots fall a step short and have one lackluster playoff game that does them in. I'm projecting that from them in this game, as the Texans will pull off an upset and make it to the Super Bowl.

Strange as it sounds, I still may opt to bet for the Saints to win it all instead of the Eagles.

Odds are, there will be a few teams that catch everyone off-guard. I only picked 4 new teams to make the playoffs compared to last year - usually it changes by 6-7 teams. So if I didn't pick your team to make it there, you have some hope.

Enjoy your NFL seasons, and I'm sure I'll be back throughout the year to critique or praise my predictions.

We're Talkin' Baseball: 2012 MLB Preview

Updated 3-3-12

As far as offseasons go for baseball, this one had a little bit of everything.

The top two free agents in MLB move out of the NL Central much to the delight of the Reds, Pirates, Cubs and Astros. Albert "El Hombre" Pujols signs a rich deal with the Angels, while Prince Fielder gets a king's salary from a Detroit Tiger squad that is looking to take the next step in the AL.

A current MVP was revealed to have a suspicious drug test back in December. Luckily for the Brewers, Ryan Braun will not have to face a 50-game suspension (at this current time anyways) after a panel overturned the tests on the grounds that the samples were mishandled.

Josh Hamilton continues to face his inner demons and may have cost himself a shot at a big contract after his drinking incident earlier this month.

Oh, and the Chicago side of things - each squad loses a pitcher to the Marlins. On the Sox end, most of us actually wanted our hurler (Buehrle) to stay in the city limits, but the length of contract in addition to playing for Ozzie Guillen again was enough to wisk him away from the South Side. Meanwhile, everyone knew Big Z would be gone. As a 4th or 5th starter on a loaded Marlins staff, Zambrano could give the Marlins the necessary pitching depth to compete with the Phillies for the NL East crown.

Aside from those moves, not much can be said about Chicago baseball teams' chances in 2012. Given his track record in Boston, Theo Epstein gives the Cubs a great chance to rebuild their minor league system. While they are a longshot to make the playoffs this year, I'd say that Cubs fans are probably feeling a little more optimistic about their future than the Sox, and that has everything to do with Epstein.

The White Sox were in a clear rebuilding mode this offseason, shipping away Quentin & last year's closer Sergio Santos while letting Buehrle sign with Miami. Chris Sale is the unknown as he enters his first year in the starting rotation, which features John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy and Phil Humber.

My friend Nick highlighted in his White Sox preview a few weeks back that the South Siders have a wide range of possibilities depending on how things fall into place. You could probably say that about any team, but I see his point. You have to figure Adam Dunn will get things somewhat figured out, but will it be his standard .250/40/100 remains to be seen. I believe Rios' one good season a couple years back was the exception in what has been a lackluster career given his hype as a prospect.

I don't know how much longer Konerko can keep these numbers up as he continues to get up there in age. The starting staff seems to be their best chance of success, with Sale being the X-factor. We already know Peavy will only start 20-25 games - he can be penciled in for a couple DL stints at random points in the year.

Vegas has the White Sox win total at about 74, which I believe they will go OVER. I see a 77-78 win season in the Sox future. Likely 3rd or 4th place finish.

Sorry, getting ahead of myself. Without further ado, here's my predictions for the MLB season.

All over/under victory totals are from 5dimes.com as of 3/3/12.

AL East - Favorites: Yankees; Other contenders: Red Sox, Rays. Thoughts: After entering 2011 the favorites following some offseason moves, the Red Sox find themselves projected behind the Yankees in the division entering this year. New York's big move in getting stealing Michael Pineda from the Mariners solidifies their staff. They will have enough offense to hold off the other squads. I say Rays take second and win the American League Wild Card.

AL East	O/U
NYY	93	Over	94-68
TB	86.5	Over	91-71
Bos	89.5	Under	87-75
Tor	80.5	Over	82-80
Balt	69.5	Under	65-97

Pick: Yankees (w/ Rays winning Wild Card) - rest of division in order (Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles)

AL Central - Favorites: Tigers; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: Out of the six divisions in MLB, this division has (by far) the biggest gap between first and second place (at least on paper). The Indians have a mid 80s win projection and are expected to finish 2nd behind the Tigers, with the Royals around 80 wins and the Sox behind them. I still think there's questions with the Tigers' pitching staff behind Verlander, but their stellar offense should be enough to win the division.

I think the Royals are heading in the right direction and would be my pick to be the surprise team of the AL this year. Not enough to take the division yet, but perhaps in 2013.

AL Central	O/U
Det	92.5	Over	94-68
KC	80.5	Over	83-79
Cle	78.5	Over	81-81
Sox	74.5	Over	78-84
Min	73.5	Under	69-93

Pick: Tigers - rest of division in order (Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins)

AL West - Co-Favorites: Rangers & Angels; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: The Angels made the biggest splashes by picking up Big Al and CJ Wilson in less than a 12 hour span.  Many are projecting them to overtake the Rangers for the division crown, but I still have my money on the Rangers. The Angels could take the Wild Card, but I'm a big fan of the Rays and what Joe Maddon has done in what was once a sesspool of a franchise and now is a perennial contender despite their small payroll.

AL West	O/U
Tex	91	Over	92-70
LAA	92.5	Under	90-72
Oak	71.5	Over	74-88
Sea	72	Under	67-95

Pick: Rangers - (w/ Angels winning Wild Card*) - rest of division in order (A's, Mariners)

*Pick Added w/ New Wild Card Format announced at end of February

Looks like I have the same AL playoffs as last year. Not what I set out to do, but that's how I see it.

On to the NL...

NL East - Favorites: Phillies; Other contenders: Nationals, Marlins, Braves. Thoughts: This division takes the crown as the most competitive division in baseball, edging out its AL directional counterpart. I like most of the moves that the Marlins made, and with Josh Johnson back in the rotation to join Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Zambrano, the Marlins have formed one of the better rotations in baseball. Not to mention they signed Reyes (who should still have a few good years in him) and have a nucleus of Mike Stanton & Hanley Ramirez, whose only worry is how he will adjust to moving to a new position.

Maybe I'm drinking the Nationals' Kool-Aid, but I have them as my NL breakout team. They also have a solid staff, when, if healthy, stacks up well to the Marlins. Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson are a solid 4 starters. I have enough faith in them to make them one of my new "Baseball Hats of 2012" in my lifelong goal of collecting a hat from every MLB franchise.

I don't know why, but I'm not sold on the Phillies. Ryan Howard, who is still recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in 2011 postseason, saw most of his key #s dipping in the past 3 years without the injury. Halladay and Lee will keep the Phillies in contention, but I see the Phillies being the 2012 version of the Red Sox - not so much collapse but failing to make playoffs despite heavy odds of making it*.

NL East	O/U
Mia	84.5	Over	92-70
Wash	83.5	Over	89-73
Phil	93.5	Under	88-74
Atl	86.5	Under	81-81
NYM	71.5	Over	72-90

Pick: Marlins (w/ Nationals & Phillies* winning the Wild Card). Rest of division in order (Braves, Mets) *Pick Added w/ new Wild Card format just announced

NL Central - Favorites: no clear favorite; Other contenders: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers. Thoughts: This division is the most wide open based on its lack of a clear favorite. Many expect the Cardinals to take a step back w/ the loss of Pujols and LaRussa, but they always seem to find a way to contend - also, Wainwright will be back. Likewise, Fielder's absence will be hard for the Brewers to fill, but they still have a solid pitching staff.

NL Central	O/U
StL	84	Over	87-75
Mil	84.5	Over	86-76
Cin	86.5	Under	80-82
Cubs	74.5	Under	72-90
Pitt	73.5	Under	69-93
Hou	64	Over	66-96

Pick: Cardinals - rest of division in order (Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Astros)

NL West - Favorites: Giants/D-Backs; Other contenders: Rockies, Dodgers. Thoughts: I don't have a good read on this division. No one saw the D-Backs' run coming last year - I see a slight regression to slightly above a .500 record. With Posey coming back and a solid pitching staff, I like the Giants (I'm a sucker for a good pitching rotation). I see them edging out the Dodgers, who have Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw & MVP candidate Matt Kemp leading them to a potential division crown that has eluded the franchise as of late.

NL West	O/U
SF	87.5	Over	89-73
LAD	81.5	Over	84-78
Ariz	86.5	Under	82-80
Colo	81	Under	78-84
SD	73.5	Under	68-94

Pick: Giants - rest of division in order (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres)


AL Championship: Yankees over Tigers
NL Championship: Marlins over Giants

World Series: Marlins over Yankees (but not because the NL gets home field with their All-Star victory). The Marlins are due for one of their random World Series runs and have a squad that can compete for one.

Random Individual Predictions (aka - R.I.P.):

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Det)...Sleeper: Nelson Cruz (Tex)
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez (Fla)...Sleeper: Buster Posey (SF)
AL Cy Young: David Price (TB)...Sleeper: Michael Pineda (NYY)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Phil)...Sleeper: Madison Bumgarner (SF)
AL HR Leader: Jose Cabrera (Tor)...Sleeper: Adam Dunn (CHW)
NL HR Leader: Mike Stanton (Fla)...Sleeper: Jay Bruce (Cin)

With this being said, if you can find a way to fade all of these picks, be my guest. Feel free to offer up your own predictions.

Bolek. Out.