A Better Bettor: #BolekBestBets Returns! NFL Week 5

Sometimes you need a period of time to clear your head after a bad stretch of time in life or a major event that crushes you emotionally. My time to myself wasn't relating to a life-or-death topic, but it did require me to take a step back.

Of course, if you read last week, you'd know I'm referencing my gambling. I had to take a week away from it to reflect on how bad I did and what I can do to become a better bettor.

In my bad run, one thing I am proud of is that I did not "chase" (or bet bigger to "chase" the losses I had in the week) - otherwise, my bad run a few weeks ago would have been an ugly site. The double down theory is not a good one when you lose 21 of 26 bets in a week.

In my week off, I realized several things

(1) I need to become more disciplined. This means not always needing to bet something every day. This is  typically a losing strategy for an inexperienced gambler who needs to create action every day. If you can find a good line, bet it. If you can't, lay off.

(2) Less bets might be better. Sometimes, I've been making bets on lines that I somewhat like when I should be focusing on lines that I really like or love. Being more selective should help me out.

(3) I don't need bets to enjoy NFL. Actually, I don't need fantasy football either, but I know that's not leaving my life anytime soon, so why fight it? Watching Week 4 of the NFL without a single wager was refreshing - I was actually able to enjoy the games on their own merit as opposed to rooting for particular outcomes. Even though I'm going back to wagering on some games, it makes me happy to say that I know I don't need gambling (or fantasy football) to enjoy NFL.

Note: Even though I may be down in my lifetime gambling, in the past couple years, I have made a concerted effort to become a better gambler and make it a very small part of my yearly income)

Without further ado, here's some lines that stick out this weekend and the games I'll be betting.

Balt  at Kansas City +6 (Fools Gold Pick) - This game has Fool's Gold written all over it. If you look at KC's numbers, they have outgained their opponents in all four games. Their 1-3 record is more the result of a -13 (yes, -13) turnover differential. That's one of those stats that tends to even out at some point. I think KC will pull off the upset despite John Harbaugh's spotless record against the spread after an extended rest in his short coaching career. KC has a desperation feel to it too. I'll be betting this on Sunday.

StL +2 vs. Arizona - Game tonight. Just bet it. So far, NFC West teams are 8-0 (7-1 if you count the Seahawks "win" as a loss vs the Packers) at home this year. Cardinals escaped with a win last week to remain unbeaten, but the travel on a short week usually favors the home team, who didn't have to go anywhere Sunday night.

Cle +8.5 at NYG - I should have bet this when it opened at +10, but I was still in hiatus phase. I may lay off, but I think Cleveland is better than their 0-4 record shows. They impressed against Baltimore last week, with the game almost going into overtime had they completed a pass with no time left. Plus, NYG is coming off a tough divisional game and doesn't usually cover big spreads at home.

SF -9.5 vs. Buff - I'm playing emotional factor here as well. Buffalo has to feel decimated after feeling like they had the division lead and a 2-game cushion on the Patriots at the tip of their fingers. Dating back to last year, San Fran has won 9 of its last 10 home games (only loss was to NYG), with covers in all of the straight up victories. I look for San Fran to romp on Sunday.

Lines I'm looking at/considering: NO -4, Den +6

NCAA Week 6

Northwestern +2.5, Purdue +3, Ariz +9.5

Have a good day and good luck with your teams/bets this week.