Hot (and Then Not) & Week 17 Picks

The playoffs are a week away, which makes me simultaneously excited for the playoffs and disappointed that we are soon only 11 NFL games away from the end of the season.

In the past several weeks, we've heard a lot about some of the streaking teams in the NFL and how they may be the best teams in the NFL. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak heading into Week 17 and will likely make it 11 barring an act of God when they face Kansas City. With a win, they guarantee themselves a bye week and possibly a #1 seed if Houston manages to lose.

In the NFC, Washington, Green Bay & Seattle hold the longest win streaks of teams on the precipice of the playoffs. Seattle has has one of the best statistical three-week runs in the NFL this year en route to its 4-game win streak entering its finale against St. Louis. The Seahawks have won by an AVERAGE of 50-10 in their last three games. Granted, only one of those games was against a legit opponent (San Fran), but there has to be some credit given. I expect Seattle to win in Week 17 and enter the playoffs with a 5-game streak to end the year. Washington enters Week 17 on a 6-game tear and will make the playoffs if they make it seven by beating the Cowboys on Sunday Night. Green Bay can ensure a bye by beating the Vikings.

All of this talk about "hot teams" entering the playoffs got me thinking: what's the trend of teams entering the playoffs (specifically, the teams that make the Super Bowl)? Is there a trend for teams to end the year on a long streak to make/win the Super Bowl?

I looked back at the past ten years to see how playoff teams from each conference fared at the end of the regular season to see if these long streaks carried over into January. Outside of one exception, the team who entered the playoffs on the longest winning streak has not won the Super Bowl (New England in 2003 is the only team in the past decade to have the longest win streak and win the title).

Here are some fun facts from my findings of the past 10 years:

• Out of the 10 teams with the longest streak entering the playoffs, only three of those teams (NE '03, '07 & '11) even made the Super Bowl. There's been six teams who had at least a half-season winning streak (8+ wins) who didn't make the Super Bowl, including New Orleans last year.
• Out of the 20 conference champions, only 5 (25%) had the longest win-streak among their playoff conference counterparts. That means most teams who made it to the big game weren't the hottest team entering the playoffs.
• Super Bowl winners of the past 10 years have had the following streaks to end their years: won 12 (once), won 4 (once), won 2 (three times), won 1 (three times), lost 1 (once), lost 3 (once). While it doesn't necessarily pay to have a long win-streak to end the year, it seems as though something can be made of winning in the last week.
• Not related to the win streak thing, but it should be noted that out of the past seven Super Bowls, all but one of them has had a team who played in the Wild Card round - meaning that bye weeks don't seem to matter as much lately. Let's keep that in mind, Niners fans, should the Packers hold onto their 2nd seed. The only Super Bowl in this span containing teams that had byes was Indy vs. NO.

	AFC Champ	NFC Champ	Longest Win Streak entering playoffs (each conference)
2002	Oakland (W2)	Tampa (W1)	Ten -5; NYG - 4
2003	NE (W12)	Car (W3)	NE - 12; GB - 4
2004	NE (W2)	Phil (L2)	Pitt - 14; Sea/StL/GB - 2
2005	Pitt (W4)	Sea (L1)	Wash - 5; Pitt/Den - 4
2006	Ind (W1)	Chi (L1)	SD - 10; Phil - 5
2007	NE (W16)	NYG (L1)	NE - 16; Wash - 4
2008	Pitt (W1)	Ariz (W1)	Ind - 9; Atl - 3
2009	Ind (L2)	NO (L3)	SD - 11; Dal - 3
2010	Pitt (W2)	GB (W2)	NE - 8; GB - 2
2011	NE (W8)	NYG (W2)	NE - 8; NO - 8
2012	?	?	Den - 10; Wash 6/GB & Sea 4 (entering Week 17)

So what does this data tell us? I believe it's easy for us to go with what we've seen most recently and make a blanket judgment on what will happen in the playoffs, but recent history shows that teams riding long winning streaks have little-to-no-advantage entering the playoffs. And it's important to keep in mind that many of these teams with the longer streaks (Pitt, both SDs, NE in '10) lost home games in the playoffs.

Before you go and place Denver into the Super Bowl, be wary of the potential obstacles and history they face when entering the playoffs.

Week 17 Picks

I honestly don't like much that's on the menu. 

For some reason, I'm believing in Dallas (+3.5) beating Washington this week. I'm also rooting on my Dallas 75/1 bet to win the Super Bowl to have some life entering January.

The other games that have an effect on the playoffs (GB -3.5 at Min, Chi -3 at Det), I have no read on.

KC +16 at Denver seems tempting - I don't think Denver is going to run up the score. Miami +10 seems like a good bet too - Belichick will likely bench starters at a certain point of their Week 17 game when they realize that they will not get a first-round bye. I don't think he cares if they fall to the fourth seed (in that spot, they'd face Indy, who they romped earlier this year) if they lost.

Tune in next week as I go to Vegas for my 30th birthday and make some bets while I'm there. I'll look to preview the NFL playoffs tomorrow night. I'm willing to bet one team from the Wild Card round will make the Super Bowl - just a matter of who.

A Letter to Santa - from a nearly 30-year old man

Dear Santa,

Now that your trek around the world has commenced, I'm sure you'll be a little too busy to read this, but whatever. Get around to it next week or beginning of 2013 when you've had a few days to rest off those billions of glasses of milk and even more billions of cookies. Good God, I hope you're not lactose intolerant. I feel sorry for Mrs. Claus.

Anyways...

I wanted to write to you today to let you know about a part of me that's been missing in my Christmases for many years now (perhaps 10 years, maybe a little less).

These people (and many additions since) are among many reasons why I will always love Christmas

It's not a loss of loving the holiday - I still love everything that comes from Christmas. The parties, people getting together, enjoying time with both sides of my family (I'm a lucky man to be able to say this) as well as new family I've been accepted into from my girlfriend's side.

I guess the part of Christmas that I haven't been able to feel in a while is the feeling of innocence, where your existence was never questioned, even though there were plenty of signs that pointed to Papa and Mama Claus living inside my home. While I didn't recognize it when I was younger, my dad's handwriting on a chalkboard that we got for a Christmas gift sticks out to me much later in life.

I miss the being young part, not being able to sleep till later at night because I was so excited to wake up to Christmas gifts. I'd always be the one who woke everyone up - my parents, my sister and brother.

Now? I go to bed my normal time on Christmas and then we all wake up when we feel like it. Not at the crack of dawn like when we were kids. Now, a little extra sleep is what I look forward to on Christmas, not the gifts.

Another group of people I'll always try to get together with on Christmases

Maybe I need to experience Christmas from a parent's point-of-view, where they get to experience the joys of their kids as they tear through their carefully wrapped presents (editor's note: if it was up to me, I'd continue to wrap my future kids gifts in newspaper, as you've seen on FB pictures of mine before).

Don't get me wrong Santa. I still believe in the idea of you, or at least the positive aspects that you bring to the table. Your jolly spirit brings hope and smiles to children around the world. While your shopping mall impersonators may not do you justice, the fact that kids wait in line to see you for hours tells you just how much they love the idea of you.

The idea of believing in something or someone (or in my case, the lack thereof) is perhaps what slowly but surely faded my kid-like enthusiasm for Christmas.

In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy the spirit of the holiday in other ways. I'll make sure to note the looks on my little cousin's faces when they open their gifts to soak in how I used to react to Christmases past.

Take care of yourself, stay in shape, and make sure not to pass too much gas in front of Mrs. Claus - she doesn't deserve that punishment.





All my best,

Brian

Week 16 & Big Props to Calvin Johnson

So much for Madden jinxes....

Congrats to Calvin Johnson on breaking my favorite wide receiver's receiving yards in a season - surprised Jerry Rice's record hasn't been broken with how pass-friendly the league has gotten. The only suspense left with him is whether he will get 2,000 yards (needs 108 yards), which with how he has been playing (and how little Detroit has to play for), doesn't seem all that suspenseful. I see him blowing by this record and getting up to about 2,050 yards, setting a record that he (and he alone) will have fun trying to chase for the next 5-10 years.

Also a big congrats to Adrian Peterson, who is within sniffing range of the rushing record thanks to his 212 yard performance in Week 15. He needs 294 yards in his last two games (against Houston & Green Bay) to top Eric Dickerson's 2105 yards, a record set almost 30 years ago. I'd love to see him get it - as far as watching RBs go, Peterson is probably my favorite one to watch (except when he's facing the Niners).

Anywho, onto Week 16 Picks:

Jax +14.5, Phil +6.5, Dal -2.5, SF +1.5

Considering: Ten +12.5, Min +7.5, Cin/Pitt Under 41.5

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

Week 15 NFL & Y2K update for AP & Megatron

To those that enjoy my writings (sports, gambling, life), I apologize for not writing as much lately. I'll try starting up more in 2013.

An update from last week's blog

Countdown to Y2K - 3 games left:

Adrian Peterson

Season: 1600 yards, 265 carries (6.0 yards/carry), 10 TDs
Last week: 31 carries, 154 yards

Needs: 400 yards in 3 games (133.3/game)

Opponents: at St. Louis (allows /game), at Houston ( /game), vs. Green Bay ( /game)

Will he get 2K yards? Yes, 2022

Calvin Johnson

Season: 96 catches, 1546 yards (16.1/catch), 5 TDs

Last Week: 10 catches, 118 yards

Needs: 454 yards in 3 games (151.3/game)

Opponents: at Arizona (allows 197 passing yards/game), vs. Atlanta (234/game), vs Chicago (205/game)

Will he get 2K yards? No, just short, 1944

Onward to Week 15...

Bets for Sunday:

Atl -1.5 - Falcons not getting the respect they should at home. The Giants' road reputation is part of this line. Atlanta was sleepwalking through the Carolina game and got the wake-up call they needed before the playoffs.

Balt +3 - I know Peyton has been leading the Broncos to their highest levels since Elway, but a letdown is inevitable. Flacco plays well at home. Without Cam Cameron as their offensive coordinator, I expect the Ravens to unleash Ray Rice to his full potential.

Ariz +6.5 - Arizona got waxed last week. Detroit lost their fifth straight, but not as bad as the Cardinals did. This play is pure motivation - Arizona has the only motivation in this game (eager to bounce back from such a shellacking). Meanwhile, the Lions were expected to contend for the playoffs and are long past that goal. It's easy to get up for a road night game against the Packers - I doubt their focus will be as sharp (as if their focus has been sharp to begin with) as Arizona's.

Buf +4.5 - Seattle's best game was last week - they could do nothing wrong. However, they are not the same team on the road. Even though this is technically not Buffalo's stadium (more of a neutral site game), the NFL and I consider it a Seattle road game. A letdown is coming, especially with a big matchup against the Niners coming up next week.

Considering...Houston -10, KC +3, SF +4.5/5

The Heisman Trophy - A Classic Example of GroupThink

If you give two damns about college football, you'll know what I'm talking about in regards to this title.

Hell, you see a lot of this in your daily lives - people being influenced by the groups around them. It may be a decision that the person in question doesn't really believe in but they make it anyways - at the risk of looking like a dissenter. No one wants to be cast as the outsider who doesn't believe what his or her group is thinking.

And here we are, the topic of conversation: The Heisman Trophy.

I never understood why the Heisman Trophy was so popular - still don't. After all, how often does "the most outstanding collegiate football player" (which is the definition of the Heisman winner) actually win the award? I guess you have to define "outstanding".

Is it "most outstanding" to win a high profile game against Alabama, run up your stats against inferior competition, and struggle against other teams who are considered high profile (LSU/Florida)? If so, the projected winner Johnny Manziel is your guy.

Is it "most outstanding" to have your team go 12-0 and advance to the BCS championship game as you lead your defense with your tremendous play to the second-best scoring average in college? If so, Manti Te'o is your guy.

Or is it "most outstanding" to be the leader of an offense who scored 37 TDs (passing & rushing) and was a bad game against Baylor away from being in the championship game against Notre Dame? If so, Collin Klein is your guy.

Ever since Manzeil's Texas A&M squad beat Alabama last month, he's been all but enshrined as the 2012 Heisman winner. It's as if his mediocre games against other SEC squads (LSU/Florida) didn't matter or didn't count.

On the opposite end, Klein was the odds-on favorite for a while, and with good reason. A few games away from perfection, Kansas State's loss against Baylor pushed Klein down the Heisman stairs, as if what he did to tear defenses up before then didn't matter one lick.

Te'o is the only guy on an undefeated team in the running, and has been a great player in his own right.

But are any of these guys really the "most outstanding" or are these guys (especially Manziel) the products of "groupthink"?

After all, ESPN and other media outlets shove these guys (like Johnny Football) down your throats, making you believe that the only game he played was against Alabama. And don't get me wrong - he did excellent in that game. But is one game worth a Heisman? It is to the voters, who are suckers to what they've seen most recently, which apparently is the new definition for "most outstanding".

If we're looking at most outstanding, shouldn't we look at what Marquis Lee did for USC? Or does his performance mean nothing because he played on an under-achieving team that was penciled in for a BCS bowl before the season started?

If I were going to vote strictly on the final three candidates, I'd probably go Klein, Te'o and then Manziel. Klein shouldn't be penalized for losing one game (hell, Manziel's squad lost two).

Yards 2K: Megatron & All-Day Approaching Two Grand Yards - Plus Week 14 NFL

If you pay close attention to the total yards of certain players, odds are you probably have them as a starter in your fantasy league.

I, however, own neither Calvin Johnson nor Adrian Peterson in any of my leagues, although I did try to make a trade for AP in my keeper league. I didn't get the owner to pull the trigger on the deal (thanks a lot Craig), but that hasn't stopped me from paying attention to what he has been doing following his torn ACL & MCL almost 12 months ago.

An injury that usually takes a season or two to shake some rust & rehab, Peterson is having the best season of his career (234 carries, 1446 yards, 8 touchdowns). His average of 6.2 yards per carry is higher than his quarterback Christian Ponder's average yards per attempt (6.0), which is amazing. If he is to average this pace the rest of the year (120.5 yards/game), we're looking at 1928 yards - so to say he could get 2,000 yards isn't out of the question.

In regards to Calvin Johnson, his stats have been just as gaudy. Megatron has 86 catches for 1428 yards (119 yards/game) and 5 touchdowns. Funny - a lot of annoying fantasy owners were complaining that he was having a bad season about five or six weeks back. If Calvin continues his pace, he will set an NFL-record at 1904 yards (Jerry Rice got 1848 yards in 1995). Again, he has a good chance of 2000 this year, especially with how bad the Lions' season is going and this will likely be the only thing they'll have to play for. (The same can be said for Adrian if the Vikings continue to fade out).

The question is - if both guys reach the mark, whose 2K season would be more impressive? A case can be made for both - Adrian having a career year after suffering his terrible CL injuries and running this well despite teams being able to key in on him since the Vikings have an average QB.

However, if you make me choose between the two, I'd go with Megatron's season. Anytime you break an NFL record, I think that has to be considered a tiebreaker that decides all tiebreakers. Either way though, all those numbers will result in no playoff appearances - unless of course you're owning these guys in fantasy football. In that case, good luck this week.

I say Peterson runs for 130 yards and a TD and Calvin goes for 125 and a TD against the Packers.

Other Week 14 Predictions

Min +3 vs. Chicago - Minnesota got crushed by the Bears a few weeks back, but I'm really high on them this week. I think the Bears have peaked this year - they've lost 3 of 4 (all to likely playoff teams) ever since their miraculous defensive TD onslaught dried out. I think you'll see a heavy dose of Peterson, about 30 carries - 24-17 Vikings - they don't need Harvin here.

NE -3.5 vs. Houston - This is as balanced as NE has been in a while - great passing game as always, solid running game and an opportunistic defense this year (24 turnovers forced, best in the league). I think Houston will lose some of their edge given their 11-1 record, and they haven't played as good lately as their record would indicate. I'll take New England here 30-17.

Other Potential Bets:

Ten +5.5, Buf -3, Dal +3


Good luck this week in your fantasy playoffs and good luck to your teams this week.