Mehh-ry Christ-mehhs

I only look forward to a few things on Christmas these days- (1) the variety of sports, including an NFL game this year and (2) the time with family. The past couple Christmases, including the one that hasn't occurred just yet, seem void of something. Maybe it's the being single thing, maybe it's the getting older thing. I just don't give as much of a shit as I used to, not even close. Getting gifts has been overshadowed by the giving of gifts in terms of where I get the most joy. I suppose I shouldn't dwell on this blah feel that I get around this time of the year and just enjoy the "presence" of people around me -- terrible pun.

I suppose that's what I'll try doing....that and some Christmas cocktails.


NFL bets...streaking right now with totals (8 in a row), overall of 37-26, including 4-0 in week 15.

Thursday bet: Pitt/Car Under (37-38): Not sure what I'll get it at. I'm not worried about Troy being gone for Pitt. Car can run the ball, but that's where Pitt's strength (about 65 yards a game allowed a game) exists. I expect Pitt to run the ball a lot as well (35-40 times). Expecting a 24-7ish type of score.

Merry Christmas to my friends and family who read this, all 5 of you. If you're reading this- buy me something good because I'm sure I did the same for you.

-Brian

Snow Job

Everyone is bitching about the weather in Minnesota. Everyone bitches about everything. It'll be like playing football on that less-than-stellar field you played on when you were a kid and it was 5 degrees out with snow. I understand the safety concerns, but since when does anyone care what a punter thinks? Not like he's gonna get hit to the ground. What's next, a long-snapper telling me his opinions on abortion?

At first I took what he said seriously, but the game is dangerous no matter the weather or field conditions. Solid hits probably won't be as prevalent in this weather since the speed of the guys running is going to be slower. Instead of focusing on the talent on the field (like we/I should have been doing last week with the New England game), everything's been focused on the weather. The Bears are a better team, with or without Favre starting. As I write this, decision is being made on his playing status, but I don't care.

Bears get at least one defensive score today and win 24-14.

Book it...which I did with the Over for the game to win 50. Record of 3-0 for the week so far with GB/NE over easily coming in last night. Overall NFL record now is 36-26.

To my ladies and gents who read this: enjoy your Snow Jobs.

Bowl(ek) Game Betting Thread

I'm gonna keep track of all the bets I make on the bowls in this thread here:

Bet 1: Fresno St (+1.5) vs. NIU- $55 to win $50. NIU just lost their new coach and coming off of an upset loss in the MAC conference championship. Fresno is familiar with the smurf turf in Boise and coming off a win against Illinois (who beat NIU earlier this year). Result: Yikes....what a waste of $55

Bet 2: Hawaii/Tulsa Over 75- $44 to win $40....I forgot to write this one up earlier, but I had to have a degenerate Christmas Eve bet. I saw both teams score about 40 a game, so what the hell. Result: 96 points, 61-35....what a genius bet. $40 richer.

Like Chris Brown did to Rihanna, I am doing to the sportsbook

"If the cops ask, this is how many times I hit you...there, you got it!"

Ok, ok. I haven't sent the sportsbook to the hospital yet or asked the sportsbook to forgive me and go back out with me. But there's still 6 weeks of football left, so give that some time.

This has seriously been one of the best seasons I've had in betting games. Only comparable stretch I had was in early 2009 when I made a profit for like 15-16 straight days when I had an online account on a site called bookmaker ("We can't pay you fast enough" was a t-shirt I got with gambling points from using their site so much over the years). A bad stretch from late October thru middle of November had me thinking the first 7-8 weeks of football were a mirage, but I regrouped and have started to kick the shit out of the guy who books my bets. And believe me, it's hard to kick the shit out of someone you've never met before, but that's just how awesome I've been. Winning money while gambling is one of the sweetest feelings that there is to experience (editor's note: there's a lot of feelings that I haven't encountered yet, so hence the bold/pathetic statement). If you aren't a gambler or don't do sports betting, then it's hard to describe or analogize (if that's even a word). Maybe it's like giving birth to a genetically superior child, except here, the child is a wad of money.

Totally nailed the under of the Niners game yesterday (barely). Thank you to the impotent 49ers offense for scoring only 7 points to help keep the total score under 45. A nice 5 game streak of totals bets amidst a 11-3 run recently has me at a season high 8 games above .500 (34-26 - 56.7%) in NFL betting. Hoping to avoid another slump like I experienced last month.

Give a brother some love and take these money makers to the bank:

Miami/Buffalo (Under 41): Inept offenses on both sides. While in the past Miami's rushing game was their strength, their two-headed monster of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams never got going this year. This may be their last chance to do so, as the Bills rush defense is the worst in the league. I expect Miami to run the ball about 45-50 times between their running backs and keep this clock going. However, Miami's had a lot of drives stall this year, leading to high fantasy scores for kicker Dan Carpenter- so I project Miami for 1 ground TD and about 3-4 field goals here. Miami QBs for one reason or another (maybe it's just cuz they suck balls) haven't been able to get Brandon Marshall the ball. On the other side of the ball, signal-caller Ryan Fitzpatrick has lost his deep threat Lee Evans, which makes me think that Steve Johnson, who quietly is 5th in receiving TDs this year, will be seeing double teams the rest of the year. Fitz doesn't make many mistakes, so I don't expect to see any of the pick-6s that you might be accustomed to seeing with Peyton Manning lately. Buffalo will feature Fred Jackson, who has made his share of big plays this year. I think the loss of Evans will also allow to stack the box more on Jackson, so I don't expect many big plays. I envision a 16-13 score.

Leans- I don't have strong feelings on much outside of that under, but I'll probably book a few more bets on Sunday outside of that. Right now, Carolina -2.5, Balt/NO Over 44, NYG/Phil under 46, Detroit +5.5 and Jax +4.5 are all on my radar.

Hope everyone has a fantastic weekend before Christmas. If you're getting drunk- let someone else drive and puke in their car. If you're a DD, feel free to punch me in the face if someone listens to this statement and tells you Brian Bolek told me to do this.

Bowl Chumpionship Series

On the eve of bowl season about to begin, college football teams are releasing 2011 and 2012 schedules. I happen to catch the nonconference powerhouses that Illinois is going to play in those two years. If you aren't already seated, I suggest doing so, as these powerhouse names will potentially give you a heart attack:

2011
Arkansas State
South Dakota State
Arizona State
Western Michigan

2012
Western Michigan
@Arizona State
Charleston Southern
Louisiana Tech

Outside of Arizona State, who was a very competitive Pac 10 team this year (i.e. lost to Oregon by lower double digits when compared to Oregon's normal beatdowns against teams), those are all home games in September that Illinois should win. You got those ignorant assholes like Ohio St's president who said teams like Boise and TCU, if undefeated, don't deserve to play in the title game because of their soft schedules. I really don't feel like looking up their schedule, but I know OSU's schedules in an average September look very similar (at least 3 of 4 games are at home and against bottom-tier college teams that are willing to get destroyed on the gridiron in exchange for a cut of the money produced for the game). Schedules like this are encouraged for the big conferences, who often have 7-8 different bowl game tie-ins after the season ends. In order to qualify for a bowl, you need 6 wins. With 8 conference games for a typical conference, a team can go 2-6 or 3-5 in conference and still make a bowl. This is accomplished by scheduling a minimum of 3 patsies that will allow you to rape them with a pigskin for 60 minutes (3 hours, 15 minutes in actual time) - AT YOUR OWN HOME NO LESS!

Meanwhile, Boise State has to schedule at least 2 of 4 nonconference games against respectable BCS schools (this year, Virginia Tech and Oregon State), win those games convincingly, win their conference games even more convincingly and pray that all of the BCS schools get at least one loss on their schedule somewhere - and even then that's not enough. How many teams leapt over Boise State this year (before they lost to Nevada), even though Boise started the year ranked 3rd? If Boise was a major market team, they would have ascended to 1 or 2 at some point in the season based on losses in front of them. Now, I know they lost a few weeks back and TCU would be a better example this year, but all I'm saying is that there is absolutely ZERO chance of these teams ever making the championship game no matter what they do, because the people who vote in these polls that heavily influence the BCS standings will always find a way to say that Boise's (or Team X in non-power conference) schedule is too soft and thus put them in a lower position as a result. If you're ever in Vegas looking at betting futures odds, I'd never invest a single dime in a non-BCS school's chances of winning the title.


Now the Week 14 final pick...Hou/Balt over 46 ($66 to win $60): I'm too lazy to write an extensive write-up, but I'll just say that I expect this to be a passing game for both teams (Houston's pass D is the worst in the league), and wouldn't be surprised to see a pick-six or two. I see this around a 30-27 final score.

Week 14 picks from Thurs-Sun: 4-2, $80; Year-to-date in NFL: 32-26, +$88


Turn out the lights, the party's over.

Weathering the Storm

Not too often you'll hear me talking about how excited I am to watch a Bears game, but tomorrow's weather is the Weather Channel's wet dream of a situation. Think of their ratings during blizzards: has to be like 0.000002 share, compared to their normal 0.000001. While I won't say I pleasure myself like WC does to the thought of bad weather, I do love the concept of bad weather games in football. Some of my favorite games to watch have been bad weather games. Some off the top of my head that I watched nearly in full: Monday Night game with Pitt winning 3-0 over Miami, Nebraska at Missouri last year in a monsoon, GB at Chicago on a Halloween night about 10-11 years ago. This is gonna be a Sunday fun day of football even more so than normal, and we'll see if I'm able to get out to a local pub to watch it.

Picks for the week, already mentioned some, read last blog if you wanna read a write-up:

NO -9, Dal +3.5, Cle +1/even

Other games I'm looking to book:

Oak/Jax Over 42: Two teams that run a lot would normally be an automatic Under bet or no play for me, but Oakland's rush defense is in the bottom fourth of the league (something that San Diego wasn't able to take advantage of last week) and Jacksonville's defense isn't as good as Tennessee made it look last week. I think this game will be in the low 50s. MJD and McFadden are licking their chops at this one.

KC +9.5/10 at SD: I'm gonna take a shot here on KC. I don't think Croyle will be running a complicated passing offense. And while I do expect SD to stack the box against KC, I am reminded of Oakland last week shredding the SD defense with their two-headed backfield of McFadden and Bush when Oakland really presents no passing threat themselves. KC's defense is capable enough of keeping this within a score or possibly being capable of pulling off the upset. The line should be in the 9-10 range, which is tasty for an 8-4 team to be getting.

And book it....those are the bets.

Back on the Wagon

Time to bring back the blog. I've been in need of writing more, given the shit that's stressing me out this season. I think this time of year just is never good for my overall mood when compared to other seasons. The past few Decembers have had some tests for my emotional well-being, and I've come out better for it. This December has been void of it, but like everyone in this wide world, I keep facing these tests (albeit in lesser forms than previous times) and facing them as well as I can.

This weekend sucks as far as plans go. Usually I have college football to fall back on when all else fails in the plan department, but all we got Saturday is the Heisman presentation that'll go to Cam Newton. I suppose I'll go to school tomorrow and mesh up a video to this hilarious news clip that my classmate Paul did for a newscast to get some experience with Final Cut software. At least winter weekends always close with football.

Herein lies a mini-stressor. Out of my four money leagues, I qualifed for the playoffs in three and am playing first round games in all of them, including making the playoffs in my $250 league for the first time. Trying to micro-manage every move and what will lead to the optimal team is mind-numbing. I learned it's always best to go with your gut and go from there and live with the results.

Obviously, another aspect of football weekends is the bets. And I will have no shortage of bets for this weekend. Probably do 5 bets as I did earlier in the year, but I'll just type up stuff on the ones I know I'm betting and add picks as Sunday afternoon nears.

NFL record thru 13+ weeks: 29-24, +$49 (won $40 on the over yesterday. My condolences to those who took Indy -3 or 3.5- what a joke)....

Week 14 picks, bets likely to be $55 to win $50

NO (-9) over StL: NO hasn't been home since thumping Seattle in Week 11, squeaking out a couple of comeback victories over Dallas and Cincy. St. Louis is much improved, but just about to close out the last of a 3-game road trip. The trip has started well with victories over Denver and Arizona, but I don't see St Louis contending in this game. Brees will have all of his weapons healthy for once, and while Thomas will be rusty, I expect Ivory to continue to impress. Bush will break the plane in this one. NO 34-17.

Cle (+1) over Buff: This matchup is especially mouth-watering for Cleveland, who have been smart this year and focused their winning efforts into giving Peyton Hillis the ball. Buffalo has the worst rush defense in the league. Hillis could approach 150 yards, 2 TDs in this one. Fitzpatrick has been solid for Buffalo, but I think the Cle rushing vs. Buf rushing D is the deciding factor in this one, especially if the weather is as bad in the Northeast as it's supposed to be. Cle wins 24-14.

Dallas (+3.5) over Phil: Dallas continues to impress since letting go of the buffet-clearing Wade Phillips. Garrett has them focused and relishing the role of spoiler, beating potential playoff teams like the Giants and Colts as a road dog and nearly beating the Saints, all without their Playboy quarterback in the game. I say they continue to attempt to play their spoiler ways in a shoot-out. Both teams will come out firing offensively. I see Dallas winning this straight-up 34-31.

Those are the only two I know I'm betting right now. Others I am considering right now are Detroit (+6.5) vs. GB (gut feeling on Detroit, not sure if I wil bet it); TB at Wash (+2) - Washington has been Jekyll and Hyde this year, and with Haynseworthless out of the picture, I feel a Washington focus not unlike that of Minnesota and Dallas with their coaching changes (Minn and Dallas are 6-0 combined against the spread (5-1 overall) combined since they fired their coaches);

Peace out folks.