Fit Happens Chapter 2: A Healthy Competition

Month 1 of 2013 brought some true change to this country. No, this isn't the political type of change or the even more devalued change in our pockets after buying a candy bar. This was something bigger. Or should I say, a bunch of someone's bigger.

Weighing in at a combined 1015.1 pounds, the quartet in the 2013 Fit Happens Challenge had a lot of extra baggage to remove to start the new year. Better choices had to start being made: cutting out the cheeseburgers for something more healthy, curbing/eliminating the amount of fast food eaten, the switch from Diet Cokes to water. These are just some of the ways the four of us approached the weight loss challenge.

How It Started...

I must say that I am starting to feel the energy I had just before I stopped working out in July 2010, when the combination of getting a job where I worked from home and going to night class three times a week in the middle of the week caused me to curb my visits to the gym.

At my peak between 2008 and 2010, I would be going to the gym 5 times a week regularly, going from 220 pounds at the time of my gym membership start to about 175 at its lowest over the 2 years at the gym. When my work/school schedule changed, so did my gym habits. 5 times a week turned into twice a week. Twice a week turned into twice a month. Pretty soon, I just gave up going to the gym, and my body responded appropriately.

At the end of 2012, I was tagged on an email with a couple of friends and their friend, all of whom had discussed starting up a weight loss contest that would present motivation for the four of us to get trimmer heading into 2013. In addition to prizes given for monthly winners and the overall winner, there are also parameters in place where everyone in the contest will have to stay motivated, no matter the difference in % of weight lost.

While we all seem to be in the clear of the most dangerous of those motivating factors (anyone who loses less than 2% of their original body weight will have to wear a dress in public), there is also the threshold of getting at least 7.5% weight lost or risking the loss of your gamer tag for a year (or changing of a FB profile picture for a month).

Luckily for us, we all started out the month strong...

User	lbs	%
Dave	-11.8 lbs	-4.09%
Hippo	-11.4 lbs	-4.62%
LionEsquire	-13.2 lbs	-5.41%
B-Bo Knows Weight Loss	-13.0 lbs	-5.52%

One Month In...

You might have an idea what my name in the contest is. Luckily I lived up to my name, reaching the end of the month in first place with 5.52% of my weight lost, edging out my nearest competition by 0.11%.

The 13 pounds lost in a month has to be a record for me. Which is surprising, because I don't think my eating habits have dramatically improved during this month.

Well, I should say what I choose to eat hasn't changed. I've definitely been eating/snacking less than before. But for the most part, my diet hasn't changed. I have cut back dramatically on alcohol and my Diet Cokes, opting for some agua instead. I'd say the conversion to a near-water beverage diet has helped a lot, although I still had a couple of weekend nights where I imbibed on a few too many.

The Next Month

Here are a few things I am expecting from Month 2 of the contest

1. The weight loss will be tougher. From my experiences working out 5 years ago, I know that the dramatic weight loss will likely tail off in month 2. This is why I've set a reasonable goal of 6-8 pounds loss for February. It won't be for lack of trying - I'm hoping to prove myself wrong and get past that mark, but not counting on it.
2. I expect to continue to get more energy the more I work out. I've been going to the gym about 3-4 times a week this year so far. The workouts, focused moreso on cardio activities, have increased in length and intensity since the beginning of the year. The first week or so was spent on the treadmill, walking at about a 3.5/4 mph pace. In the past two weeks, I've been starting to jog on the treadmill, around a 5/5.5 mph pace. The workouts aren't always as long, but I end up losing way more calories with the jogs.  I am looking to get back to running around a 6mph pace like I was able to at the same point of my weight loss in 2008.
3. My diet will improve. It may not improve dramatically, but cutting out soda and alcohol (save for the Super Bowl) for the entire month of February will have to help somewhat. In fact, I meant to ask if anyone wanted to join me on this No Booze Till March campaign. And no, my non-drinking friends don't need to be smartasses and agree to go on this campaign with me - I'm looking for my alcohol-soaked friends to hop on the Sober Train, which I think is more reliable than the CTA/Metra.
4. I don't expect to win the weight loss title again. But that doesn't mean I won't aim for a repeat. I figure if I win it a second month in a row, I must be doing something right and will be in much better shape when the month of February comes to a close.

When this contest first started, I must say I was slightly motivated by winning it. But then I realized that this is more than just a contest to win by losing weight. This is about making better decisions, whether it be to lay off fatty snacks and eating fruit instead or going downstairs to the gym to workout instead of sitting on the couch watching 1990s sitcoms and crappy college basketball games throughout the early evening.

I must say that win or lose, this contest is exactly what I needed to start making some better decisions. Thank you to Chris, Nick and Dave for the invite in what promises to be a healthy competition.

Combined Weight to Start January: 1015.1 pounds
Combined Weight to End January: 965.7 pounds
Weight loss total - 49.4 pounds (4.9% lost)

The History of the Super Bowl MVP: Facts & Thoughts for This Year

A couple days away from Super Bowl XLVII (47 for us non-Romans). Anyone who knows me knows that I am super-psyched about this game being a 49ers fan.

And like almost every Super Bowl in the past 6-7 years, I'm a gambling man. There's so many freaking things you can bet on (more on this in a blog coming up later this week before the game). One of the things you can bet on is who will win the Super Bowl MVP.

This award favors the quarterback, as 25 of 47 winners (there was one Super Bowl w/ a co-MVP) lined up behind center to win the award. The past three Super Bowl winners had a QB win the award.

So naturally, the two favorites to win the award are both QBs (Colin Kaepernick is +140 and Joe Flacco is +250). This means for every 10 dollars you bet on Kaepernick, you'd profit $14, with a similar sized wager on Flacco netting you 25 bucks.

These are the safest bets to make, but who wants to be safe, especially when it comes to gambling? I delved into the history of the Super Bowl MVP and what the average QB who won the award did to win it. I also wanted to see what it took for a non-QB to win the award. The defensive winners (8 in total) were hard to find definitive stats for, so I wanted to focus more on the running backs and wide receivers who stole the honors from the quarterbacks.

So here goes nothing:

For the QB MVP winners:

• The average stats for the 25 winning MVP QBs: 20-for-30, 269 yards, 2.3 TDs, 0.5 int.
• Out of the first 9 QBs to win the MVP, none of them completed more than 17 passes or threw more than 30 times. In this time period, the average QB went 14-for-23, 218 yards, 1.7 TD, 0.6 int
• Since then (since the 1985 Super Bowl - XIX), the 16 QBs have averaged 23-for-35, 298 yards, 2.7 TDs, 0.4 int
• Yardage totals for MVP winners range from Roger Staubach's 119 in Super Bowl VI to Kurt Warner's 414 in Super Bowl XXXIV. The lowest total since Staubach's was Tom Brady's first go-around as MVP, only netting 145 passing yards in the Patriots' upset of the St. Louis Rams.

For the QB non-MVP winners:

• The average stats for the 22 non-winning MVP QBs: 14-for-24, 184 yards, 1 TD, 0.6 int.
• From Super Bowl I-XIX in which the QB didn't win MVP, the average stats for these QBs: 12-for-19, 141 yards, 1.1 TDs, 0.7 int
• Since Super Bowl XX, the non-winning QBs averaged 17-28, 216 yards, 1 TD, 0.5 int
• In the back-to-back Super Bowls that Miami won in the 1970s, Bob Greise went 14-for-18 with 161 yards and a TD and an interception...in both games combined! Could you imagine a QB throwing this little nowadays and winning a Super Bowl in just one game, yet alone two? 

So what does it take for a non-QB to win the MVP? We'll focus on the offensive players:

Running Backs (7 winners)

• The seven running back winners have averaged 29 carries, 150 yards and 2 TDs. This stat means that basically the workhorse running back is the only type who can win the award.
• The lowest number of carries for a MVP RB is 20 carries (Marcus Allen), with John Riggins' 38 carries leading the way for MVP running backs.
• There has not been a running back MVP since 1998, when Terrell Davis totaled 157 yards in Super Bowl XXXII.

Wide Receivers (6 winners)

• The average MVP wide-out has averaged about 7 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown to snag the award. Overall, the six winners were responsible for 799 of their QB's 1361 yards (59%) and 3 of their 8 TDs (Note: Hines Ward did not catch his 43-yard TD from Big Ben - see below)
• It should be noted that three of these six winners have come in the last 8 years (Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes)
• These three recent winners averaged 113 yards/game (not counting Ward's catch from the WR), while their QBs averaged 205 yards.
• In Super Bowl XL, Hines Ward had as many yards receiving as Roethlisberger had passing (123 yards). This occurred thanks to a trick play from the arm of Antwaan Randle-El to Ward for a 43 yard touchdown - this means Roethlisberger only netted 43 yards total from receivers not named Hines Ward.

Defensive Players (8 winners)

• As mentioned above, records aren't that great when it comes to what defensive players did to earn their MVPs.
• For the three secondary players to win the award, all three had exactly two interceptions each. The latest of which was 10 years ago when Dexter Jackson snatched two Rich Gannon passes.
• There have also been three linemen/tackles to win it. Two of these guys shared the award (Harvey Martin & Randy White in Super Bowl XII for the winning Dallas Cowboys). The other was Richard Dent, who had two sacks and two forced fumbles in the Bears' rout of the Patriots in Super Bowl XX.
• Only two linebackers have won the award: Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V & the one-and-only Ray Lewis in Super Bowl XXXV.

Other (1 winner)

• There was also the lone special teams guy to win the award. Desmond Howard earned the award in Super Bowl XXXI with some great returns (244 all-purpose yards, including a 99-yard kickoff return).

This begs the question...

What players have value if betting the Super Bowl MVP? Based on the recent data, the wide receiver position has the best value for MVP. Running backs need an amazing game, including a lot of carries, to take away the MVP from QBs. Gore has a better shot to get 20+ carries than Rice, but I'm eliminating both since no RB has won this in 15 years.

For this bet, you would want to target a guy who has a chance to get around 60% of his QB's total yards.

This leaves three realistic long-shots to win the Super Bowl MVP:

Torrey Smith 17/1

Michael Crabtree 18/1

Anquan Boldin 20/1

If you think the Ravens will win, I would personally look to take Smith. He has the best big-play potential (17 yards/catch & 8 TDs vs. Boldin's 14 yards/catch & 4 TDs this year).

However, with me taking the Niners in this game, I am going to make Michael Crabtree my Super Bowl MVP bet.

In Kaepernick's 9 starts including the playoffs, 37% of his yards (771 of 2104) and 7 of his 13 TD passes have gone to Crabtree. This includes five games where Crabtree accumulated 45% or more of Kaepernick's yards.

Defending the Award

If you think this will be a defensive battle, you may want to considering looking for long-shot defensive players to win the award. Ray Lewis is priced out of this (only 8/1 odds, terrible for a position that's only won the award twice in 46 Super Bowls). I'd suggest looking at the following players if you sense a struggle:

1. Ed Reed 35/1 (If he picks a couple passes, this is possible. With his ball-hawking skills, he could also return one for a TD)
2. Patrick Willis 45/1 (His odds were at 90/1 earlier this week). If this is a low-scoring game, Willis will likely have his fingerprints on the game.
3. Aldon Smith 70/1 (He hasn't had a sack since Week 14. All of his 19.5 sacks came in the 13 games before then, including 5 games with multiple sacks. If the score stays low and he can get a couple sacks, including a turnover, Smith could win it)
4. Terrell Suggs 75/1 (He hasn't been the dominant player he was last year when he took the defensive player of the year honors, but Suggs is still worth a look. His best game this season came against Denver in the Divisional Round, notching 10 tackles/2 sacks, so perhaps he has a little juice in the tank for a great game against the Niners.

Squares Root (For Teams Not Their Own)

Root root root for the home team

If they don't win, just root for someone else...

-Author Unknown

Ok, maybe that author is me. Could be, I don't know.

Anywho, the topic that's on my mind a week before the Super Bowl isn't so much about the game as it is about the people who watch the game.

You. Me. Your Mom (yeah, she watches it). Even your lady friends who can only name one player on each team, and that's because she's in love with one of them (Kaepernick) and thinks the other guy got away with murder over a decade ago (Ray Lewis - btw, the case against him was so flawed, but people continue to speak of this "murder" as truth).

When these people go to parties, you'll be hard-pressed to find someone staying completely neutral. Which is strange, since more than likely, his or her favorite team is looonnnnnnnnnng gone from the Super Bowl. 

And yes, I'm guilty of this too, although my team rooting interest is almost always (as in 100% of the time) tied together with whoever I bet on. If you're betting on a game and have a rooting angle, I get it. If one of the teams is a division rival of yours, I get that, too. For example, no way should Bears fans be rooting for the Packers in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, and vice versa years before that.

However, when people have no reason to root for or against any team, they will still find some kind of angle to do just that. Out of thin air, they'll find a reason. For this Super Bowl, I've already found a few people who have been bitching about Colin Kaepernick. Yes, he does come off as a douchebag, and yes, he did trademark the word Kaepernicking. But if any of us were in the same spot and our last names got famous, we'd be doing the same thing. After all, it's better to make money off of your name than have someone else do it. Also, some of the hate is rooted in the common ingredient of hate - jealousy.

On the other side, I know some folks might be rooting against the Ravens because "Ray Lewis got away with murder" (blah, blah, blah...find something truthful to hate guys for). At the end of the day, people who aren't already fans of the teams or don't have any monetary interest on either team will find a way to root for or against the Niners or the Ravens. 

Is it human nature? Maybe. I feel like we do this with things other than sports as well. With TV shows and movies that we watch, we root for who we perceive to be the good guys and wish ill thoughts and fates for the bad guys.

Word of warning to those casually rooting for the Ravens (or against the Niners) who may be in my presence on February 3rd: I may curse at you, but only because I'm rooting for the Niners. Like, for real rooting for them.

And also my squares.

Safe the Last, Lance, For Me

Lance Armstrong had an interview with Oprah Winfrey for her show on her network OWN in which the former cyclist is assumed to be admitting to using performance-enhancing drugs. I say assumed because the interview has not aired yet (it will air Thursday and Friday nights in a two-part interview).

Armstrong's confessions come at a time where Livestrong needed him to rid the ugly shadow that has been cast upon anything and everything Armstrong has touched, including the charity that he helped start in 1997. For all the great work that Armstrong and his crew did and the hope they brought to people across the globe inflicted with cancer, he risked undermining everything the charity has worked to become had he not offered some kind of confession in the light of mounds of evidence that point towards his guilt.

No Shock

At this point anyone who has followed his story is about as shocked to learn this "truth" as people were on Sunday to hear about Jodie Foster. No one is surprised about this...at least when it comes to the general public who wasn't brainwashed by Armstrong's rise to glory.

To people who had to deal with cancer or know someone close who has dealt with cancer, Armstrong's association with the Livestrong charity is the only thing they care about. The only thing. And that's somewhat understandable.

Don't get me wrong, no one should be against anything that has to do with charity. Anyone donating time and/or money to charity is doing a great deed. That doesn't mean people who are associated with them, particularly high profile people like Lance Armstrong, can be absolved of the label "Complete Asshole" if they engage in the acts of what a "Complete Asshole" represents.

Complete A-Hole

Where does this label come from? For me, it has nothing to do with the cheating. In every sport we watch, many top-level athletes cheat. After a certain age, I've gotten numb to any news that involves an athlete getting caught with some performance-enhancing drug or testing positive with steroids. As fans, we've gotten used to the cheating athletes being outed in Congressional Reports, in some cases still denying it even when the mountain of proof against them would seem like too much for any rational human being to avoid a confession of some sorts.

Armstrong was a cheat, yes. But what has me dislike him to the highest levels of the douchebag scale was the way he threatened anyone and everyone who dared implicate him with the cycling doping scandals.

Here is an excerpt from a story published last week, in which a former cyclist and his wife were threatened for many years by Armstrong and his associates (for full article, click here):

Together with then-fiance Frankie, she (Betsy Andreu) visited Armstrong as he received treatment for testicular cancer in 1996 and was party to a conversation he had with two doctors while she was in the room.

According to Betsy Andreu, Armstrong admitted then that he had been taking EPO, testosterone, growth hormone, cortisone and steroids to improve his cycling.

David Walsh, a journalist, became aware of that incident via an off the record statement from Betsy Andreu in 2003, but Armstrong quickly got word that she had revealed his secret.

He responded by starting an intimidation campaign that lasted years.

When Andreu refused to sign a statement in support of Armstrong and discrediting Walsh, the American began a media smear campaign against Andreu.

Armstrong’s former physical therapist Emma O’Reilly was another who tried to expose the cyclist who labelled her a “prostitute” and an “alcoholic”.

As rumours of drug use continued to swirl around Armstrong in 2008, Betsy Andreu meanwhile was left a sinister voicemail from a friend and former business associate of Armstrong.

“I hope somebody breaks a baseball bat over your head,” it said.

“I also hope that one day you have adversity in your life and you have some type of tragedy that will definitely make an impact on you.”

There are stories like this documented by many of the cyclists who outed Armstrong as a drug-user and were subsequently threatened by him. It was bad enough he cheated and lied. That much is easy enough for sports fans to deal with - we're used to it. In fact, the average person, if they really thought about it, can look back at something or someone in their lives that they've cheated on or lied to/about.

But when it comes to threats, especially to dozens of people and over a prolonged period of time, that's where I draw the line. Instead of recognizing the guy as a humanitarian of epic proportions for his charitable works, I remember him for being a selfish arrogant prick who would do whatever he could and run over anyone he could to succeed, and then threaten anyone who dared question what he was doing.

If we left it at just the cheating, and hell, maybe even a small fib here or there, I don't think I'd have this ill will towards him. But the threats that came from him and his camp just add a notch in his asshole belt. It's a shame that a man, on one hand, helped so many cancer patients with hope and inspiration, while with the other hand was damning and undoing the work of what the first hand accomplished.

If you want to continue to like him for the humanitarian he is, remember this: a true humanitarian would never resort to threatening anyone for any reason. 

2013 AFC/NFC Divisional Game Analysis and a Quick Look at Next Weekend

As I expected, this weekend of football (aside from the last game) was a solid display of NFL action. Shockingly, I got all 4 of the winners right.

Random thoughts from the weekend:

1. Peyton Manning can't be completely blamed for the Broncos' double overtime loss to the Ravens (John Fox's ultra-conservative approach to the end of the game with 2 timeouts and 30+ seconds definitely didn't make sense), but with this being the eighth time one of his teams has lost in its first playoff game in 12 postseason appearances, he will probably take a good chunk of the blame. His interceptions sure didn't help, but there's no excuse for Baltimore being able to throw a bomb like that with less than a minute left to tie up the game. For Jacoby Jones to get behind the secondary that easily puzzles me. Don't get me wrong, Flacco made a hell of a throw. But with the kind of arm Flacco has, there has to be better deep coverage than that. Because of that throw, Denver goes home and Baltimore advances.
2. Enough of the "Is Joe Flacco Elite?" crap on TV. Can't we just call him a damn good quarterback that has the ability to lead his team to playoff glory? His playoff record (7-4, including 5-4 on the road) shows what he is capable of, and if it wasn't for Lee Evans' drop last year, he'd be going after his second straight Super Bowl appearance. In the past, Flacco needed the defense to carry him to victory. Now, it's Joe Cool that's doing the heavy lifting, as evidenced by his 331 yards and 3 TDs (no interceptions). That puts his postseason numbers for this year at 613 yards, 5 TDs and no picks. Not bad. Elite? Who cares. There's no need to put a label on the guy or anyone for that matter. Leave that to the losers at ESPN that need to debate everything up to and including whether Jay Cutler is to blame for RG3's injury.
3. Colin Kaepernick showed exactly why Jim Harbaugh stuck with the Nevada quarterback after he replaced Alex Smith due to a concussion in the middle of the season. After throwing a pick-6 on the Niners first possession, Kaepernick settled into the game quite nicely, totaling a mind-blowing 444 yards (including an NFL-record for QBs - 181 rushing yards) and four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing). As a Niners fan, I am delighted with the change in QB and that Harbaugh stuck with this decision despite how Alex Smith started the year. It took some balls, and Harbaugh has a big pair of them.
4. One of the key points I thought would help the Niners win on Saturday was holding onto the ball for a significant time edge over the Packers, which they did. The Niners held the ball for almost a 2/1 advantage in time, helped greatly by the team's effectiveness on the ground (43 carries, 323 yards). If the Niners can maintain this offensive efficiency, a sixth Lombardi trophy is likely in their future.
5. The Falcons made things way more interesting than they needed to be. After blowing a 20 point lead, Atlanta was led down the field by Matt Ryan, with Matt Bryant booting home a 49-yard kick with 13 seconds left. What was most baffling was the terrible coaching decisions made by Mike Smith in the second half. Some of the bad decisions that nearly cost the Falcons a chance of advancing: (a) not going for 2 when up 19 late in the third quarter. At this point in the game, there's no reason not to go for 2 to go up 21. And no, this isn't hindsight - it's math. Whether you're up by 19 or 21, the opposing team will be going after three touchdowns, especially that late in the game; (b) calling a timeout with 13 seconds left instead of letting the time slip to 3 seconds to make the field goal the final play of the game & (c) having Matt Bryant essentially kick an onside kick that gave Russell Wilson a chance at a Hail Mary attempt. I don't watch the Falcons enough to know if Mike Smith always coaches like this, but I have to believe that the Niners have a huge coaching advantage entering the NFC Championship game. Perhaps that's why the line went from 2 to 3.5 in no time.
6. Despite the furious fourth quarter comeback, the Seahawks fell short, but that doesn't deter any from what Russell Wilson was able to accomplish this season. Despite being drafted in the third round by a team who just shelled out tens of millions on a QB in the offseason, Wilson was able to earn the starting role in the preseason. In the year of the rookie QB, Wilson led his team further than any of them. It's going to be fun watching him in the next decade as the Niners scheme to stop the speedster slinger.
7. The Patriots took care of business, as expected. Tom Brady did his best Tom Brady impression (25-40, 344 yards, 3 TDs) in the victory. Outside of the opening kick of the game, which allowed the Texans to get a brief 3-0 lead, the Patriots controlled this game throughout. The score (41-28) was helped by a couple of fourth quarter Texans touchdowns, but it didn't feel that close. The Patriots' win sets the stage for a rematch of the AFC Championship last year. I believe it will be just as close as last year.
8. After watching the Texans down the stretch and in their brief playoff appearance, I was left wondering: is this as good as the Texans will be? As my man Bomani Jones said, Matt Schaub is a good QB - not great, not terrible, but good - the epitome of good. I don't see Gary Kubiak ever out-coaching the likes of Belichick in situations like this. They may be stuck in the "good, but not great" category for an indefinite time, until they get either a new coach, a new QB, or both.

Championship Games

I've had a few hours now to soak in the championship games. Before I go into that, I'd like to bring up some stats I found relating to the history of these conference championship games:

• This is the first year since 1995 where there were three teams who made the championship game from the previous year. Baltimore, New England and San Francisco helped break that streak.
• There's never been an instance in the Super Bowl era where all 4 teams in AFC/NFC Championship games made it back-to-back years.
• Between 1970 and 1999 (the dynasty era of football), there were only three instances of no teams in either conference making the game in back-to-back years. Since 2000 (14 seasons), there have been seven times where the conference games from the previous year were filled with all new teams compared to the year before.
• San Francisco is the first NFC team to make it to consecutive championship games since the Eagles did it 2002-2005. They are also battling Atlanta next weekend as one of them will be looking to become the 11th different NFC team in the past 12 years to make the Super Bowl. That leaves the loser, Detroit, Minnesota, Washington & Dallas as the only NFC teams not to make the Super Bowl in that time.
• The last five NFC Championship games have been decided by 7 points or less, including three overtime games. I wouldn't be surprised if this year's game becomes the sixth one in a row.

Atlanta/San Francisco - These teams advanced to this round in opposite ways - San Fran with a slow start that was followed by a strong closing three quarters, with Atlanta struggling to the finish line in its narrow victory. A couple of questions on my mind as the game approaches:

1. Will Kaepernick be able to build off of his first playoff game? It's hard to get much better than he showed.
2. How much of a factor will the crowd be? Kaepernick did well in some hostile environments (New Orleans, New England) but not so well in the land of the 12th Man (Seattle). If Atlanta gets really loud, I'm wondering how Kaep will be able to handle the offense. An early lead is important.
3. Is it just me, or does the Niners defense not seem the same as it did at the beginning of the year? There have been a few injuries on defense, notably Justin Smith with a partially torn triceps. I know the quality of opponent was high in the second half of the year (road games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson stick out in mind), but the high scores of these games was unusual to say the least. It's nice to know we can win high scoring games, because this NFC Championship game might be a barnburner.

With all of that being said, I see the Niners advancing to their sixth Super Bowl next week. Preliminary prediction is 34-27.

New England/Baltimore - I see this game playing out a lot like their AFC Championship tilt last year (and also their regular season match-up this year). It seems ridiculous that the Ravens are 9-point underdogs when earlier this year, they were 2.5 point favorites against the Patriots. I see this being a higher scoring game - Baltimore's defense is for once being carried by the offense. I see the Patriots squeezing out a 30-27 victory to advance to their second Super Bowl in a row (and sixth in the past 12 years).

2013 NFL Divisional Predictions

Vegas was mostly a disaster gambling-wise last weekend. My NFL predictions went 2-2, but the other sports did me in. So much so, combined with my bad run the past 4-5 weeks, I decided to take a little break from handicapping these games. That doesn't mean I can't offer my contractually obligated Divisional predictions for this week.

Dating back to the Giants' first Super Bowl run in 2008, there has been at least one team favored by 7+ points who has lost every year in this round:

• 2008 - NYG upset Dallas as 7-point underdogs (21-17). I refer to this game as the "Scream Game", as this was the first big bet I ever won while in Vegas. It also happened to occur while I took a nap throughout the entire game. I was literally tired of losing every single bet I had made up until that point.  I woke up as the post-game was about to start and saw the final score and flipped out.
  
  San Diego also beat Indianapolis as 10.5 point underdogs on the same day (28-24). Boy, do I envy those crazy fools who parlayed SD & NYG money lines that day.
  
• 2009 - No one gave Arizona (+10) much of a chance against the Carolina Panthers in this particular year, but they should have. Hell, Arizona covered the reverse spread, winning easily 33-13 en route to to their franchise's first-ever Super Bowl run.
  
• 2010 - With how underachieving Norv Turner's teams have been, their loss to the Jets as 7.5 point favorites might not surprise people much. But there was enough of a talent difference (as was the case in the Norv era) for them to be favored by this much. The Jets won the defensive battle 17-14. With how bad the Jets are, this game feels like it happened a lot longer than 3 years ago.
  
• 2011 - After being destroyed in their last regular season tilt against the Patriots, the Jets were not given much of a chance to win the playoff matchup between the two in Foxboro, closing as a +9.5 underdog. As the story goes, the Jets won this straight up, 28-21
  
• 2012 - The Giants do it again, this time against Green Bay. The Giants (+8) dismantled the Packers 37-20, the second playoff step in their second championship run in the Eli era.

Random note: the last three of these upsets occurred in the last game of the weekend. So if the Ravens don't pull off the upset, don't be surprised if the Texans do it on Sunday afternoon.

Naturally, I bring these recent trends up because I anticipate one of the big dogs to win this weekend. Another Brady versus Manning AFC Championship game seems too good to be true.

Without further ado:

Baltimore 24, Denver 20 - This is more of a gut-feeling play than anything. I see Baltimore being the team that continues this trend. Normally, teams in this spot (blown out by the opponent in the regular season match-up) fair much better in the playoff rematch. Joe Flacco gets critiqued a lot, but he's won a playoff game in his first five years in the league, including a 4-4 road record. He has more career playoff road wins than many of the legends, including Peyton (2-4 road record) & Brady (3-2). 

There's too many Peyton playoff games that come to mind where he loses in this spot. In his previous 11 trips to the playoffs with the Colts, Manning went one-and-done seven times, including losses as a home team in four of them (three of which were off of a bye). The two Super Bowl runs are responsible for six of his nine career playoff wins (9-10 overall record).

San Francisco 21, Green Bay 17 - I'm torn both ways on this game. I worry about the Justin Smith injury and how effective he will be with a partially torn triceps. He sets everything up for Aldon Smith, who was  able to set the franchise record for sacks largely due to the attention that Justin draws on the line. I'm being the optimistic Niners fan boy here and saying Justin will be effective enough to help Aldon out and also help the rush defense.

I expect a game of ground-and-pound with Gore, who should get 25+ carries. Kaepernick will be facing an under-rated defense, which is getting players healthy at the right time of the year. I worry a little about our receiving depth - gonna need Randy Moss to step up.

In the end, I believe San Francisco's defense will hold up just enough to take this game.

Atlanta 28, Seattle 18 - It would shock no one if the Seahawks continued their roll and advanced to the NFC title game, especially given Atlanta's recent history of playoff ineptitude. I feel folks are sleeping on the Falcons and we haven't seen the best of them. I expect Matt Ryan to finally put together a solid playoff game  and send the Seahawks packing.

New England 27, Houston 20 - I don't see Houston getting spanked by New England again. These revenge match-ups benefit the team who got blown out in the previous match-up. Houston will want to neutralize Brady by feeding the ball to Arian Foster constantly (like I mentioned in the San Fran write-up for Gore). However, I don't think they can completely neutralize their passing attack, which will be enough for the Patriots to take this game.


Feel free to offer your own predictions. I look forward to being way wrong about these games.

Go Niners!

Fit Happens - A Healthy Contest Between Four Fatties (Chapter 1)

Good evening everyone.

You may have seen my Facebook post about this on New Year's Day, but in case you didn't, I joined a weight loss challenge with some friends that I have dubbed "Fit Happens". The fact that it started on New Year's goes against my idea of needing to change things at the start of a new year (I am a believer that New Year's Resolutions fail because people use the new year as an excuse to change something about themselves instead of actually wanting to change).

Nevertheless, the contest started on Day 1 of 2013, with the four contestants (myself, LionEsquire, Hippo & Dave) weighing in at close to a 1000 pounds. In this six month contest, the winner will be the one who loses the highest percentage of weight in the six month period.

The winner of each month (largest percentage lost) gets $10 each from the other contestants, with the overall winner netting $50 from everyone else. While that is a motivator, below is what will keep people from tanking in the contest.

In the event you may be losing the contest by a wide-margin, there is a clause that prevents me and my fellow fatties from tanking the contest and going back to their obese selves.

• If you fail to lose 7.5% of your weight in the contest, you must change your gamer tag (your video-game name/alias) for a year. Apparently this is a big deal in the video game community - I haven't played a video game since one of the Maddens like 3-4 years ago on PS2. Or for people like me (actually the only one in the contest not affected by the above), I must change my Facebook profile picture for a month. 7.5% is feasible - about 18 pounds in 6 months.
• The dreaded fatty clause is if one fails to lose 2.5% of their weight. In this scenario, the loser(s) must go out with the others to dinner in a dress. With how quickly everyone has lost weight so far, I don't see this happening.

I weighed myself today for the first time since the new year and went from 235.6 to 229.2 pounds (6.4 pounds). I'm sure most of it is water weight, but hey, it's progress. I'm actually shocked it was this much, given the fact I was in Vegas for four days, not consuming what many would call a "good diet", unless you think mai tais with cherries and pineapple is a good diet.

However, based on previous quests to lose weight, I know the easiest pounds to lose are the early ones - the later ones are the ones that are challenging. It's going to be difficult to lose in months 3 & 4, if my previous experience to lose weight is any indicator

Some new habits that I'm trying to institute for the New Year (aside from my Vegas trip - what happened there stayed there anyways). These goals are likely to be expanded upon as I progress through the contest:

1. Water, water, water - In the New Year, all I've had back here on the mainland (shhh, Vegas is an island, don't let maps fool you) is water and a couple of White Russians. It's been nothing but water otherwise.
2. Less eating - I still don't have the best diet, but what I've been doing is eating less and spreading out my eating throughout the day.
3. Eating out less - I believe me and Jen have only ordered out once since the year began, which is impressive since we usually end up doing it at least 2-3 times a week.
4. Exercising - I finally started using the gym in our basement. My goal is to use it about 100 times during this contest (which goes till June 30th). I am up to 4 in the first 11 days. I'll sneak in a workout tomorrow before my unofficial birthday celebration at The Shamrock to keep the pace up.

That's it for now. I don't have a timeframe on how often I will update this. I may even interview the fellow contestants at some point to see what they are doing to lose weight and improve their overall fitness.