Of course, everyone loves being right. Who wouldn't? But there are certain aspects of life where being right gives us more satisfaction than in others.
For me, of course, it is in the area of gambling - particulaly sports betting. The feeling of a winning bet is hard to describe to someone who hasn't placed and won a bet. I dare not compare it to sex because....well.....yeah.
But even a subset within gambling that gives me the most satisfaction are the particular bets that you know that most people aren't on. If you've read my week 1 and 2 previews of NFL, you see a section titled "Fool's Gold", which highlights a game each week where a spread seems too good to be true, a bet that just seems like it's begging for action on one side.
These are the bets that make me proud to be a gambler. Like I've said before, these sucker bets, also known in the gambling community as "square bets", are not always wrong. Last week's NE game against Miami is the perfect example of this - a game I lost money on.
However, today had some interesting lines that screamed "BET ME!!!", which in Gamblish means "bet the other side". Baltimore was example 1 of this - over 85% of people in Yahoo pick'em odds leagues selected them. The more I thought about it, the easier it was for me to bet Tennessee.
Second BET ME was actually one where I bet into the side where I shouldn't have - Dallas laying (spotting) three points at San Fran. Yes, I bet against my team - but make no mistake, as my friend Tim can attest to, I was rooting hard for San Fran to win this game. I didn't think the bet was square until I saw that all 11 people in our pick'em league picked Dallas. For the bet's sake (not for my fandom's sake), Dallas came back and made the game a non-bet with the 3 point win.
Third BET ME was Philly laying 2.5 points against Atlanta, who got spanked by Chicago in Week 1. I think many people had short memories on Atlanta - who are a dominant home team in the Matty Ryan era - losing only 2 games that he has started in the Georgia Dome since he became their franchise QB. Yeah, I come off pompous by saying I saw Atlanta covering a mile away, because there was severe doubt on their cover here (it took till the last minutes for Atl to seal the deal).
You'd think with all of this hot shit talk on my part that I did awesome in the pick'em league, but quite the opposite. My picks against the spread were 4-9-2 (2-0-1 in the above games, 2-9-1 in the others). However, as I was getting to a few paragraphs ago before getting into specific bets, there are certain bets that you want to win more than others, just so you can tell people, "I was right!"
And despite the piss-poor record in the pick'em league, I actually ended up being 5-1-1 with my bets.
Winning bets were: Ten +6; Ind/Cle Over 39 (I tailed a bet that a respected gambler that I read a lot about was making here); Pitt -14; Atl +2.5 and Atlanta Over 23.5 team points.
Losing bet was: Wash -3.5
Push was: Dallas -3
I make my initial reads in a blog on Thursday or Friday but usually don't lock my bets in until Saturday night or Sunday morning. This week, I was unsure until Sunday morning on my final plan of attack as far as bets go. I try updating my bets on my Twitter, if you ever care to follow it (www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in Twitter language - @brianbolek). This is where you will find my bets for the day as I make them.
Monday night - I might not bet, but let's be serious. I'd lean St Louis if I hear of Jackson being healthy, but will likely lean in the direction of the Under 44 (or so) for that game.
My goal for the Fool's Bet column throughout the 17 weeks is a 12-5 or better record. I will likely bet it every week and hope that this goal - if achieved - makes me a profit.
Yes, I know I'm being an asshole with this blog here, but I don't care. One thing about me that you can't discredit is that I will put my money where my mouth is, so if you feel like I am on the wrong side of a bet, I am usually up for making side bets in addition to my 4-5 games of betting.
I hope I'm right more often, especially at clips like this. But realistically, you have to expect no more than a 53-55% winning percentage at best over a long span of betting. There will be those weeks where you lose 75%-100% of your bets, but always gotta keep your head even keel when betting.
Bet against some of these future sucker bets at your own risk! I'm here to help you out and make sure you don't overlook certain aspects of games that go into making point spreads what they are.
9/17/2011
Lovie/Hate Relationship: The Dissection of Why Bears Fans Hate The Coach (and week 3 college picks)
With the start of NFL season in Chicago comes the annual "Fire Lovie Smith" chants from many fans.
But why?
Is it something to do with his personality, which is the antithesis of everything that the most beloved coach in Bears history of the past 30 years (DAAAAA COACH) represented?
Is it something to do with his in-game adjustments or use of challenges?
Is it just the nature of sports, when a team's fan base calls for a coach's head whenever they go a decent amount of time without a championship?
It couldn't have anything to do with race, could it?
It has to be one of these things, because it couldn't be about his record as a coach. Entering the 2011 season, Lovie sported a 63-49 record as the Bears coach in his 7 years at the helm. In this span, Lovie has won over half of the division championships in the division (4), made two conference championship games and one Super Bowl.
In the decade preceding Lovie's reign as head coach, the Bears mainly suffered through the Dick Jauron (1999-2003) and Dave Wannstedt (1993-1998) eras. In these 11 seasons, the Bears went to the playoffs twice, combining to go 75-101 between the two coaches.
I hear all the complaining about Lovie, but as a Niners fan, I have absolutely no sympathy for Bears fans. From 2004-2010, the Niners sport this amazing run of dominance:
2004: 2-14
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9 (hey now! Let's not overachieve here!)
2007: 5-11 (that's more like it)
2008: 7-9
2009: 8-8
2010: 6-10
For those of you who can do math, that's a record of 39-73. In that time, we won exactly 0 conference championships, 0 division championships, 0 playoff games (hard to do when you make the playoffs ZERO times in that span) and are currently on our 4th coach since Lovie started. So please excuse me if I find this Lovie talk to be a tad annoying.
Does any Bears fan wanna trade for the Niners past 7 years in a straight-up deal? I'll gladly take what you have: a boring coach who has won 4 divisions for a team who has had 4 coaches and no playoff appearances.
I think a lot of Lovie's problem is that he is not Ditka and will always be compared to him. Lovie would need to win more than one Super Bowl for people to even consider him better than Ditka. The 1985 season will always be held up on a pedestal in the pantheon of sports seasons (in Chicago and nationwide), so Lovie (and any other future Bears coach) will never be able to escape that shadow.
I hope that the day Lovie is let go (or heaven forbid, RETIRES from the coaching profession as a Bears coach), that Bears fans can at least give the guy some credit for coaching many teams that not a whole lot of people expected much from and led them to success more often than not.
Because when they hire Dick Jauron or Dave Wannstedt Jr. (I hope Wannstedt didn't name a kid after himself, this is more for example's sake) to lead the team afterwards, you might be in for some cold winters as a Bears fan.
Note: If I don't respond to potential/inevitable criticism of this blog (whether it be on fb comments or in here), it's not that I am dismissing your comments. It's just that I don't know how else I could state my case beyond the above material that I could say any differently.
Week 3 college picks
I've made a few picks this week so far, going 1-1 between LSU -3.5 and Boise's first half line (+$20 combined). These two games bring my college season record to 4-1, +$140.
Notre Dame -5 (vs. Mich St) - $55 to win $50
Nebraska -17 (vs. Washington) - $55 to win $50
Illinois -2 (vs. Arizona St) - $55 to win $50
I may make more bets throughout the day. I'll try keeping them updated- may start updating my bets on my Twitter account (twitter.com/brianbolek - follow me @brianbolek).
Have a good day everyone. Make your Saturdays enjoyable and prosperous.
But why?
Is it something to do with his personality, which is the antithesis of everything that the most beloved coach in Bears history of the past 30 years (DAAAAA COACH) represented?
Is it something to do with his in-game adjustments or use of challenges?
Is it just the nature of sports, when a team's fan base calls for a coach's head whenever they go a decent amount of time without a championship?
It couldn't have anything to do with race, could it?
It has to be one of these things, because it couldn't be about his record as a coach. Entering the 2011 season, Lovie sported a 63-49 record as the Bears coach in his 7 years at the helm. In this span, Lovie has won over half of the division championships in the division (4), made two conference championship games and one Super Bowl.
In the decade preceding Lovie's reign as head coach, the Bears mainly suffered through the Dick Jauron (1999-2003) and Dave Wannstedt (1993-1998) eras. In these 11 seasons, the Bears went to the playoffs twice, combining to go 75-101 between the two coaches.
I hear all the complaining about Lovie, but as a Niners fan, I have absolutely no sympathy for Bears fans. From 2004-2010, the Niners sport this amazing run of dominance:
2004: 2-14
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9 (hey now! Let's not overachieve here!)
2007: 5-11 (that's more like it)
2008: 7-9
2009: 8-8
2010: 6-10
For those of you who can do math, that's a record of 39-73. In that time, we won exactly 0 conference championships, 0 division championships, 0 playoff games (hard to do when you make the playoffs ZERO times in that span) and are currently on our 4th coach since Lovie started. So please excuse me if I find this Lovie talk to be a tad annoying.
Does any Bears fan wanna trade for the Niners past 7 years in a straight-up deal? I'll gladly take what you have: a boring coach who has won 4 divisions for a team who has had 4 coaches and no playoff appearances.
I think a lot of Lovie's problem is that he is not Ditka and will always be compared to him. Lovie would need to win more than one Super Bowl for people to even consider him better than Ditka. The 1985 season will always be held up on a pedestal in the pantheon of sports seasons (in Chicago and nationwide), so Lovie (and any other future Bears coach) will never be able to escape that shadow.
I hope that the day Lovie is let go (or heaven forbid, RETIRES from the coaching profession as a Bears coach), that Bears fans can at least give the guy some credit for coaching many teams that not a whole lot of people expected much from and led them to success more often than not.
Because when they hire Dick Jauron or Dave Wannstedt Jr. (I hope Wannstedt didn't name a kid after himself, this is more for example's sake) to lead the team afterwards, you might be in for some cold winters as a Bears fan.
Note: If I don't respond to potential/inevitable criticism of this blog (whether it be on fb comments or in here), it's not that I am dismissing your comments. It's just that I don't know how else I could state my case beyond the above material that I could say any differently.
Week 3 college picks
I've made a few picks this week so far, going 1-1 between LSU -3.5 and Boise's first half line (+$20 combined). These two games bring my college season record to 4-1, +$140.
Notre Dame -5 (vs. Mich St) - $55 to win $50
Nebraska -17 (vs. Washington) - $55 to win $50
Illinois -2 (vs. Arizona St) - $55 to win $50
I may make more bets throughout the day. I'll try keeping them updated- may start updating my bets on my Twitter account (twitter.com/brianbolek - follow me @brianbolek).
Have a good day everyone. Make your Saturdays enjoyable and prosperous.
9/15/2011
Footballs Deep: NFL trends and Week 2 thoughts
The Death of the Running Back
Welcome to Thursday night. We are officially a week removed from the exciting start to the NFL season, where we saw the duel between Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Who knew that the slinging would continue into the Monday night games, particularly in a matchup featuring Tom Brady and Chad Henne, who somehow combined for more yards than Rodgers and Brees? Many games on Sunday also featured some high passing yardage totals, with Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick being among the unexpected leaders in the clubhouse.
The trend of high passing yardage is nothing new, but the number of guys in Week 1 who performed well, especially by the unknowns, makes me believe that having a top quality running back isn't all that important anymore. Sure, it helps with play actions and keeping some defenses honest.
But look at how many teams line up in shotgun formation on a regular basis, especially with the top quarterbacks. Even when teams know that these guys are going to pass, defenses can do nothing to stop it. I think the death of the running back is its prime right now.
Yes, yes - there's still elite running backs in the league. But how many of them are on teams that are considered the favorites to win the Super Bowl?
Fool's Gold Bet of the Week
Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee: From what I saw of the game, which was very limited amount, the Titans seemed to struggle to move the ball much against the Jaguars - a team not considered to epitomize great defense. You'd think that playing a team like the Ravens, a team that just schooled its rival Pittsburgh 35-7, would warrant a higher line that 5.5 point home dogs as a result. With this line, Vegas is telling me that they expect the Ravens to have somewhat of a letdown (especially off of the rivalry angle), while also saying that the Titans might not be as bad as they looked in Week 1. I think Chris Johnson is able to get on track this week. The Titans almost won the opener despite CJ's struggles to get going, so if he's able to get one or two big runs like he's accustomed to, that will be the difference in keeping this game close. (Likely betting Tennessee +5.5)
Fool's Gold YTD: 1-0 (record based on betting against the trend - Last week's pick (Washington) easily covered). This is a record of betting against the spread, not straight-up.
Fantasy Football Blurb
I wrote a blog about how nobody really cares about your fantasy football team if they're not asking about it, so since you're not asking, I won't tell you. I will mention that I did lose all of my big money league games, but I refuse to panic and think my season is over. It obviously makes winning week 2 more important than normal, but the season is a grind and needs to be treated as such.
Lots of times, teams who lose week 1 start to panic and make irrational moves based on one week's worth of data. If you know owners like that in your leagues, my suggestion is to exploit these owners. Try getting Blount or CJ from some panicked owner and then reap the rewards later. Just don't do it in any of my leagues.
Week 2 Leans/Bets
Week 1 started off on a terrible foot, with the Under being destroyed in the opening game of the year. In fact, Overs went 12-3-1 in NFL's first week. Much of that is credited to the trend I mentioned at the top of the blog - Quarterbacks Gone Wild.
Two unlisted bets from Monday - I lost $60 total on Monday (1-1), $55 Sunday (2-3-1) and $66 (0-1) on Thursday - so a rough start to the NFL (3-5-1, -$181). Luckily, I won all 3 of my college bets on Saturday (+$120) to negate much of that damage.
Week 2 is a lot murkier for me at this point, but here's some games I'm looking to bet:
Ten +5.5 vs Baltimore
KC +7.5 at Detroit
Pitt -14 vs. Seattle or the Under 40
Dallas -3 at San Fran
Atlanta +1.5 vs Phil
I will post final bets on Sunday.
Survivor pool pick. I used San Diego last week. Week 2 pick: Pittsburgh.
Good luck in your bets, fantasy leagues, and most importantly, to the actual team that you root for.
Welcome to Thursday night. We are officially a week removed from the exciting start to the NFL season, where we saw the duel between Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Who knew that the slinging would continue into the Monday night games, particularly in a matchup featuring Tom Brady and Chad Henne, who somehow combined for more yards than Rodgers and Brees? Many games on Sunday also featured some high passing yardage totals, with Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick being among the unexpected leaders in the clubhouse.
The trend of high passing yardage is nothing new, but the number of guys in Week 1 who performed well, especially by the unknowns, makes me believe that having a top quality running back isn't all that important anymore. Sure, it helps with play actions and keeping some defenses honest.
But look at how many teams line up in shotgun formation on a regular basis, especially with the top quarterbacks. Even when teams know that these guys are going to pass, defenses can do nothing to stop it. I think the death of the running back is its prime right now.
Yes, yes - there's still elite running backs in the league. But how many of them are on teams that are considered the favorites to win the Super Bowl?
Fool's Gold Bet of the Week
Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee: From what I saw of the game, which was very limited amount, the Titans seemed to struggle to move the ball much against the Jaguars - a team not considered to epitomize great defense. You'd think that playing a team like the Ravens, a team that just schooled its rival Pittsburgh 35-7, would warrant a higher line that 5.5 point home dogs as a result. With this line, Vegas is telling me that they expect the Ravens to have somewhat of a letdown (especially off of the rivalry angle), while also saying that the Titans might not be as bad as they looked in Week 1. I think Chris Johnson is able to get on track this week. The Titans almost won the opener despite CJ's struggles to get going, so if he's able to get one or two big runs like he's accustomed to, that will be the difference in keeping this game close. (Likely betting Tennessee +5.5)
Fool's Gold YTD: 1-0 (record based on betting against the trend - Last week's pick (Washington) easily covered). This is a record of betting against the spread, not straight-up.
Fantasy Football Blurb
I wrote a blog about how nobody really cares about your fantasy football team if they're not asking about it, so since you're not asking, I won't tell you. I will mention that I did lose all of my big money league games, but I refuse to panic and think my season is over. It obviously makes winning week 2 more important than normal, but the season is a grind and needs to be treated as such.
Lots of times, teams who lose week 1 start to panic and make irrational moves based on one week's worth of data. If you know owners like that in your leagues, my suggestion is to exploit these owners. Try getting Blount or CJ from some panicked owner and then reap the rewards later. Just don't do it in any of my leagues.
Week 2 Leans/Bets
Week 1 started off on a terrible foot, with the Under being destroyed in the opening game of the year. In fact, Overs went 12-3-1 in NFL's first week. Much of that is credited to the trend I mentioned at the top of the blog - Quarterbacks Gone Wild.
Two unlisted bets from Monday - I lost $60 total on Monday (1-1), $55 Sunday (2-3-1) and $66 (0-1) on Thursday - so a rough start to the NFL (3-5-1, -$181). Luckily, I won all 3 of my college bets on Saturday (+$120) to negate much of that damage.
Week 2 is a lot murkier for me at this point, but here's some games I'm looking to bet:
Ten +5.5 vs Baltimore
KC +7.5 at Detroit
Pitt -14 vs. Seattle or the Under 40
Dallas -3 at San Fran
Atlanta +1.5 vs Phil
I will post final bets on Sunday.
Survivor pool pick. I used San Diego last week. Week 2 pick: Pittsburgh.
Good luck in your bets, fantasy leagues, and most importantly, to the actual team that you root for.
9/12/2011
Counting My Chickens (Chapter 4)
The past two weeks, I've received more response in person about my blogs than any other time in the past year that I've written a blog. I never would have guessed that people would this much of a crap about my dating life and where the online dating world takes me. The step-by-step stuff that I've shared seems to make the story more relate-able to everyone.
The fact that the 3 dating blogs have all reached top 5 blog status - including the last one which currently has 118 views (a record for this blog) - proves to me the level of interest that everyone has with it. It's been fun writing the blogs so far. Even more fun to have people come up to me and tell me how much they have loved the stories so far.
Another thing I didn't account for, however, is how vulnerable I make myself when I share my life with the hundreds of people I know on Facebook. Don't get me wrong - I love sharing some stories of my life with everyone. But this past week, I may have been jumping the gun with things when it comes to the dating thing.
"Bad News Never Had Good Timing"
So it turns out that there will not be a second date. An online discussion Sunday night with the girl of the first date had her opening up to me and saying that she'd just like to be friends - which isn't all that new of a phrase to me - and no, I'm not looking for sympathy, just being honest in that I've heard that a lot, especially lately.
And I have no ill-will towards anyone who says it, including this case. I just don't care for the people who say that and then never bother maintaining their end of "Let's Just Be Friends". It's easy to figure those out. Luckily, some of the people who I've heard say that have held up their end of the bargain.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed - because I am. Hell, it seemed to be the only thing I spoke about to people the past week. The people who asked me about my chances, I tried stressing that I am cautiously optimistic. That was no lie, because I knew there was no guarantees after the first date.
And please, no ill will towards Date-1.
"On to the Next One"
So after I've told dozens of people in person and 100s of readers about what was to come of my week this week with a second date that wasn't, I find myself with my pants around my ankles somewhat. I know that there was a chance of things not working out when starting this blog, but I felt (and still feel) compelled to share some of this stories. Especially since people seem to respond to it so well.
I went back on the site and messaged a few new possibilities. I'll go back to my strategy of messaging new people that I would like to meet and hope that I can get another date out of it.
Depending on results and stories, I may update this segment weekly or a couple times a week. I hope to have more success stories to share with you. Although there is a part of me that may not want to build these things up in such a public forum, but rather do it in private conversations with people.
But one thing this guy won't do is quit. I did meet a cool girl off of the site so far and wouldn't mind at this point if she lived up to her "Let's Be Friends" thing - so the site definitely is not a total loss.
Time to march on and meet the next girl.
The fact that the 3 dating blogs have all reached top 5 blog status - including the last one which currently has 118 views (a record for this blog) - proves to me the level of interest that everyone has with it. It's been fun writing the blogs so far. Even more fun to have people come up to me and tell me how much they have loved the stories so far.
Another thing I didn't account for, however, is how vulnerable I make myself when I share my life with the hundreds of people I know on Facebook. Don't get me wrong - I love sharing some stories of my life with everyone. But this past week, I may have been jumping the gun with things when it comes to the dating thing.
"Bad News Never Had Good Timing"
So it turns out that there will not be a second date. An online discussion Sunday night with the girl of the first date had her opening up to me and saying that she'd just like to be friends - which isn't all that new of a phrase to me - and no, I'm not looking for sympathy, just being honest in that I've heard that a lot, especially lately.
And I have no ill-will towards anyone who says it, including this case. I just don't care for the people who say that and then never bother maintaining their end of "Let's Just Be Friends". It's easy to figure those out. Luckily, some of the people who I've heard say that have held up their end of the bargain.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed - because I am. Hell, it seemed to be the only thing I spoke about to people the past week. The people who asked me about my chances, I tried stressing that I am cautiously optimistic. That was no lie, because I knew there was no guarantees after the first date.
And please, no ill will towards Date-1.
"On to the Next One"
So after I've told dozens of people in person and 100s of readers about what was to come of my week this week with a second date that wasn't, I find myself with my pants around my ankles somewhat. I know that there was a chance of things not working out when starting this blog, but I felt (and still feel) compelled to share some of this stories. Especially since people seem to respond to it so well.
I went back on the site and messaged a few new possibilities. I'll go back to my strategy of messaging new people that I would like to meet and hope that I can get another date out of it.
Depending on results and stories, I may update this segment weekly or a couple times a week. I hope to have more success stories to share with you. Although there is a part of me that may not want to build these things up in such a public forum, but rather do it in private conversations with people.
But one thing this guy won't do is quit. I did meet a cool girl off of the site so far and wouldn't mind at this point if she lived up to her "Let's Be Friends" thing - so the site definitely is not a total loss.
Time to march on and meet the next girl.
9/09/2011
Love/Hate - Football Style & College Picks - Week 2
The NFL offseason brought about some things about teams and players that I love, some on the opposite spectrum.
I love...the fact that the NFC West still appears to be weak as hell. This gives the Niners a fighting chance to win the division.
I hate...that we are giving Alex Smith yet another chance to prove himself. I'm not sure if Harbaugh is a mad scientist or what, but he has been on record as saying he wanted Smith to be back with the team. I'm not saying Kaepernick is the answer, but I'd almost rather throw a rookie out there. It's not like Smith has done anything to earn the starting spot again.
I love...at least for week 1, the disrespect that the Buccaneers are getting. Tampa went 10-6 last year, but missed the playoffs based on losing a tiebreaker to Green Bay. I know that Tampa had a somewhat weak schedule, but they took advantage of it, sweeping Carolina and their 4 NFC West games on their way to a 9-1 record versus sub-.500 team. I know they need to do better against good teams (only win was Week 17 against the Saints, who benched their starters), but I think their core of players will keep them on the right side of .500 this year. Their only loss in that 9-1 stretch, coincidentally, came to the team that is next on my list.
I hate...how much love the Lions are getting from across the spectrum of media. Believe me, this is hard to say with how much money I made on Detroit games last season. I'd like Detroit's chances a lot better if LeShoure didn't get hurt for the year, because he would have been a great compliment to speedster Jahvid Best. Also, their other impact rookie, Nick Fairley, won't be starting Week 1 after having surgery on his foot last month -who knows how long it will take him to have an impact once he does get on the field. And last but not least, Matt Stafford hasn't been healthy for an entire season yet. He's their ultimate key for making the next step and making a playoff run, so I'm waiting to see him play a full season before I can push the Lions forward as a playoff contender.
I love...that Favre is finally out of the NFL. The media (not him) tried bringing his name back into the circles of conversation with rumors of him going to the Eagles as a backup and the Colts when Manning's status to start the season was in doubt. The first rumor, let me say, was about the most laughable rumor in the history of rumors. Does anyone actually believe that Favre would be a willing back-up for someone? The Colts would have been more reasonable, but Favre would have likely been murdered if he decided to go back out there.
I hate...that the Texans are now the favorites in their division and getting some media love. Before Manning's injury was known to be one that could have him missing the season, the Texans were a sleeper division pick. Don't get me wrong - I think the Texans will win the division and deserve to be the favorite at this point. I'm just being a Pouty Pete because I wanted them to be more of underdogs going into the season so that my prediction back in August would look more ballsy.
With those things being said, I am making my first college picks of the year in week 2. Games are Saturday games. Likely making them $44 plays.
Michigan +3 over Notre Dame - I think Michigan is going to thrive behind their home crowd in the first game under the lights at the Big House. I usually end up betting this rivalry game and betting it wrong, so you make want to play Notre Dame for all you can.
Oregon -27 over Nevada - Oregon is not happy after their performance against LSU and will put a hurting on Nevada here.
Tulsa -12 over Tulane - This is complete degenerate action here, but a lot of the good handicappers on Covers (the site I use for gambling research) are loving this line, so I figured I'd give it a shot.
I'll likely have another NFL blog up by Monday, with a possible pick for Monday's game.
Have a good weekend folks, and enjoy opening weekend of the NFL - I know I will.
I love...the fact that the NFC West still appears to be weak as hell. This gives the Niners a fighting chance to win the division.
I hate...that we are giving Alex Smith yet another chance to prove himself. I'm not sure if Harbaugh is a mad scientist or what, but he has been on record as saying he wanted Smith to be back with the team. I'm not saying Kaepernick is the answer, but I'd almost rather throw a rookie out there. It's not like Smith has done anything to earn the starting spot again.
I love...at least for week 1, the disrespect that the Buccaneers are getting. Tampa went 10-6 last year, but missed the playoffs based on losing a tiebreaker to Green Bay. I know that Tampa had a somewhat weak schedule, but they took advantage of it, sweeping Carolina and their 4 NFC West games on their way to a 9-1 record versus sub-.500 team. I know they need to do better against good teams (only win was Week 17 against the Saints, who benched their starters), but I think their core of players will keep them on the right side of .500 this year. Their only loss in that 9-1 stretch, coincidentally, came to the team that is next on my list.
I hate...how much love the Lions are getting from across the spectrum of media. Believe me, this is hard to say with how much money I made on Detroit games last season. I'd like Detroit's chances a lot better if LeShoure didn't get hurt for the year, because he would have been a great compliment to speedster Jahvid Best. Also, their other impact rookie, Nick Fairley, won't be starting Week 1 after having surgery on his foot last month -who knows how long it will take him to have an impact once he does get on the field. And last but not least, Matt Stafford hasn't been healthy for an entire season yet. He's their ultimate key for making the next step and making a playoff run, so I'm waiting to see him play a full season before I can push the Lions forward as a playoff contender.
I love...that Favre is finally out of the NFL. The media (not him) tried bringing his name back into the circles of conversation with rumors of him going to the Eagles as a backup and the Colts when Manning's status to start the season was in doubt. The first rumor, let me say, was about the most laughable rumor in the history of rumors. Does anyone actually believe that Favre would be a willing back-up for someone? The Colts would have been more reasonable, but Favre would have likely been murdered if he decided to go back out there.
I hate...that the Texans are now the favorites in their division and getting some media love. Before Manning's injury was known to be one that could have him missing the season, the Texans were a sleeper division pick. Don't get me wrong - I think the Texans will win the division and deserve to be the favorite at this point. I'm just being a Pouty Pete because I wanted them to be more of underdogs going into the season so that my prediction back in August would look more ballsy.
With those things being said, I am making my first college picks of the year in week 2. Games are Saturday games. Likely making them $44 plays.
Michigan +3 over Notre Dame - I think Michigan is going to thrive behind their home crowd in the first game under the lights at the Big House. I usually end up betting this rivalry game and betting it wrong, so you make want to play Notre Dame for all you can.
Oregon -27 over Nevada - Oregon is not happy after their performance against LSU and will put a hurting on Nevada here.
Tulsa -12 over Tulane - This is complete degenerate action here, but a lot of the good handicappers on Covers (the site I use for gambling research) are loving this line, so I figured I'd give it a shot.
I'll likely have another NFL blog up by Monday, with a possible pick for Monday's game.
Have a good weekend folks, and enjoy opening weekend of the NFL - I know I will.
9/08/2011
Date & See (Chapter 3)
For those of you who haven't been following my online dating, here are the first two chapters of my journey in the online dating world:
Chapter 1 (Intro to Online Dating)
Chapter 2 (Reflection After a Week)
The end of chapter 2 has me looking forward to a date, which occurred earlier this week.
In the day or two preceding the date, I must say it was a mixture of anxiousness, excitement and a tad bit of nervousness. I was more calmed than anything though since during that time, I was able to keep in touch with the date as we got to know each other better through some online conversation and then after exchanging numbers, some texting. As we talked more, it seemed like we kept finding more things that we had in common - which made me look forward to the date that much more.
Date Day - Stay Cool, Ice Cold (Before the Date)
Date day comes. You would think that I'd have a slight nervousness at points in the day, especially as my work day progresses towards its end. I was as cool as a cucumber (to be honest, I never understood this phrase - probably because I don't handle cucumbers and have no idea on their temperature tendencies). I knew it to be a more casual of a first date, so a polo and jeans would suffice.
I had to stop at a gas station for some breath mints, so Mentos it was - a fairly insignificant event compared to the next one I almost faced. I almost didn't make it to my first date. As I was heading north on Pulaski, a car turning left was somewhat impeding the path of a car behind it, so it creeped into my lane, missing me by inches. Luckily, when I slammed on the brakes, there was no one tailing me.
The Waiting Game
So I get to the date a little early and text my date, letting her know what to look for and that I'll be waiting outside. She texts me close to the start of the date time, saying she's just about to leave and apologizes several times.
Waiting, playing on my Crackberry, waiting some more.
I'm not going to be left at a pizza place by myself on what was supposed to be my first date, am I?
I knew she lived closed, so I was doubting she had left - sure enough, she hadn't. I get another text apologizing even more, assuring me she had just left and she'll explain when she gets there.
Finally....The Date
My phone had froze when I accidently deleted an app of mine, so I had to restart it. In that time, she texted me where I was at, but luckily I saw someone who matched her profile looking like she was looking for someone.
(Sidenote: I mean, who wouldn't be looking for me? I mean, look at me, right? End of sidenote)
I give somewhat of an awkward hug to her to say hello, tell her I'm starving and let's get some food! We ended up going to Barraco's in Evergreen Park and getting some deep dish pizza. I'd say the conversation flowed well, much like the online conversations we had been having. I got to learn about her adventures from the summer and other past stories that she told that showed me that she was comfortable talking to me. I always appreciate people who can open up to me, but this being a first date and first time meeting each other, I appreciated it that much more. It helps I'm sure that I've opened up to her a lot about random crap.
Part 1 of the date being over, we stood outside of the Barraco's trying to figure out our next step of the date. I even said to her that we were looking like a bunch of idiots standing outside of a restaurant that is adjacent to a busy street. Luckily, the term idiot or whatever offshoot of the word I used doesn't seem to offend her. We finally decided on living up to the bet that we made the day before via text: loser of a darts game has to buy the other ice cream.
(Sidenote 2: I really did enjoy the simpleness of the date - pizza, darts and ice cream. It seemed to fit both of our personalities well)
So we go to Durbins in Burbank for a few games of darts. After ordering our only drinks (me a Blue Moon, her a Jack and Coke), we get into our dart games. From these games, I learn that she is very competitive, as she says she may not talk to me again if I beat her. I do appreciate her competitive nature, as we both agree that nobody should ever participate in any activity and not expect to win. My prospects of talking to her beyond the date were looking good, as I was quickly trailing after 5 rounds in our first Count Up game of darts by over 130. In round 6, I pulled a round of 129 out of my ass (2 triple 20s and a 9) and then overtook her in the next round to capture the victory. Needless to say, she wasn't happy. I didn't need quite the comebacks in the next two games, both victories for me. Game 4 was hers, but the damage was done. I won 3 of 4 games and essentially ruined my chances of talking to her beyond this date.
Just kidding. We ended up getting ice cream after - a Neopolitan scoop with another ice cream for her (sorry, I forgot the other scoop) and a double peanut butter/chocolate scoop - both waffle cones. Apparently, the Baskin Robbins we went to holds some significance to her, with her and her friends spending many a night being obnoxious (hmmmm....sounds like me and my friends traditionally being obnoxious at bowling alleys and restaurants). We continued to converse well there and called it a night a little after 11pm.
As we walk outside, I thought about a kiss on the cheek good night but figured that since we established a second date that maybe it could wait. Before hugging her good bye, I made note of her looking better in person than she did through her pictures. She appeared to blush - yeah, let's say she blushed when I said that. I'm pretty sure she did. Once she reads this, she can let me know if she did.
I drove off back to home with a satisfied feeling after date 1 and was (and am) very anxious for date 2 to take place. We established an idea for a date 2 that I consider to be a revolutionary contribution to the dating world....and I will let you know about that idea next week.
Chapter 1 (Intro to Online Dating)
Chapter 2 (Reflection After a Week)
The end of chapter 2 has me looking forward to a date, which occurred earlier this week.
In the day or two preceding the date, I must say it was a mixture of anxiousness, excitement and a tad bit of nervousness. I was more calmed than anything though since during that time, I was able to keep in touch with the date as we got to know each other better through some online conversation and then after exchanging numbers, some texting. As we talked more, it seemed like we kept finding more things that we had in common - which made me look forward to the date that much more.
Date Day - Stay Cool, Ice Cold (Before the Date)
Date day comes. You would think that I'd have a slight nervousness at points in the day, especially as my work day progresses towards its end. I was as cool as a cucumber (to be honest, I never understood this phrase - probably because I don't handle cucumbers and have no idea on their temperature tendencies). I knew it to be a more casual of a first date, so a polo and jeans would suffice.
I had to stop at a gas station for some breath mints, so Mentos it was - a fairly insignificant event compared to the next one I almost faced. I almost didn't make it to my first date. As I was heading north on Pulaski, a car turning left was somewhat impeding the path of a car behind it, so it creeped into my lane, missing me by inches. Luckily, when I slammed on the brakes, there was no one tailing me.
The Waiting Game
So I get to the date a little early and text my date, letting her know what to look for and that I'll be waiting outside. She texts me close to the start of the date time, saying she's just about to leave and apologizes several times.
Waiting, playing on my Crackberry, waiting some more.
I'm not going to be left at a pizza place by myself on what was supposed to be my first date, am I?
I knew she lived closed, so I was doubting she had left - sure enough, she hadn't. I get another text apologizing even more, assuring me she had just left and she'll explain when she gets there.
Finally....The Date
My phone had froze when I accidently deleted an app of mine, so I had to restart it. In that time, she texted me where I was at, but luckily I saw someone who matched her profile looking like she was looking for someone.
(Sidenote: I mean, who wouldn't be looking for me? I mean, look at me, right? End of sidenote)
I give somewhat of an awkward hug to her to say hello, tell her I'm starving and let's get some food! We ended up going to Barraco's in Evergreen Park and getting some deep dish pizza. I'd say the conversation flowed well, much like the online conversations we had been having. I got to learn about her adventures from the summer and other past stories that she told that showed me that she was comfortable talking to me. I always appreciate people who can open up to me, but this being a first date and first time meeting each other, I appreciated it that much more. It helps I'm sure that I've opened up to her a lot about random crap.
Part 1 of the date being over, we stood outside of the Barraco's trying to figure out our next step of the date. I even said to her that we were looking like a bunch of idiots standing outside of a restaurant that is adjacent to a busy street. Luckily, the term idiot or whatever offshoot of the word I used doesn't seem to offend her. We finally decided on living up to the bet that we made the day before via text: loser of a darts game has to buy the other ice cream.
(Sidenote 2: I really did enjoy the simpleness of the date - pizza, darts and ice cream. It seemed to fit both of our personalities well)
So we go to Durbins in Burbank for a few games of darts. After ordering our only drinks (me a Blue Moon, her a Jack and Coke), we get into our dart games. From these games, I learn that she is very competitive, as she says she may not talk to me again if I beat her. I do appreciate her competitive nature, as we both agree that nobody should ever participate in any activity and not expect to win. My prospects of talking to her beyond the date were looking good, as I was quickly trailing after 5 rounds in our first Count Up game of darts by over 130. In round 6, I pulled a round of 129 out of my ass (2 triple 20s and a 9) and then overtook her in the next round to capture the victory. Needless to say, she wasn't happy. I didn't need quite the comebacks in the next two games, both victories for me. Game 4 was hers, but the damage was done. I won 3 of 4 games and essentially ruined my chances of talking to her beyond this date.
Just kidding. We ended up getting ice cream after - a Neopolitan scoop with another ice cream for her (sorry, I forgot the other scoop) and a double peanut butter/chocolate scoop - both waffle cones. Apparently, the Baskin Robbins we went to holds some significance to her, with her and her friends spending many a night being obnoxious (hmmmm....sounds like me and my friends traditionally being obnoxious at bowling alleys and restaurants). We continued to converse well there and called it a night a little after 11pm.
As we walk outside, I thought about a kiss on the cheek good night but figured that since we established a second date that maybe it could wait. Before hugging her good bye, I made note of her looking better in person than she did through her pictures. She appeared to blush - yeah, let's say she blushed when I said that. I'm pretty sure she did. Once she reads this, she can let me know if she did.
I drove off back to home with a satisfied feeling after date 1 and was (and am) very anxious for date 2 to take place. We established an idea for a date 2 that I consider to be a revolutionary contribution to the dating world....and I will let you know about that idea next week.
9/07/2011
Bet/Don't Bet on it - Fools Gold and Week 1 Picks
For all of you folks who have placed a bet in the NFL before - have you ever seen a line too good to be true, bet on that outcome, only to see it fail miserably?
In this situation, have you ever encountered the "group think" of betting, where everyone sees the same thing you do in the above situation and sees no way in hell of a bet losing? All of my friends can remember the Monday Night game between an undefeated Bears squad and a reeling Arizona team. The Bears came out flat, falling behind 20-0 before making an inspired comeback that helped create the famous "Crown Their Ass" speech of Dennis Green. Unfortunately, we all bet on the Bears to cover about a 13 point spread. I can count on my hand how many times I've won bets where me and all of my friends were on the same side of a winning bet.
The truth is - one must look at lines like this a little closer than your normal lines when gambling. If you do some research on lines that you see that look too good to be true, it may help you stay away from games like this, or in some cases, bet on the other team. That's not to say that those bets always lose- because they don't. If you want to plop down the money on those teams, that's perfectly fine and I wish you the best of luck (as long as I'm not betting the other side).
This year with the blog, I decided to pick a game each week of a line that looks too good to be true - I'll call it the Fool's Gold play of the week. Sometimes I will bet it, sometimes I will avoid it. I have been in a Yahoo pick'em league for many years and like to use the public's perception of a pick to gauge heavy favortism of one side over another. I like to look at games where one team is being picked over another (by the spread) at a 70%+ clip. One particular game stands out for me in week 1.
NYG (-3) at Washington - Right now on Yahoo, the Giants are being picked at a 76% rate, which isn't the highest percentage (NE - 86%, Phil - 80%, Ariz & Cle - 79% each), but to me, it's the line that stands out as the Fool's Gold play of the week. All the talk this offseason on the Redskins has been about the mediocre QB battle betweeen Rex Grossman and John Beck, with the former winning the "battle". So why such a small line on what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFC, perhaps the league? One reason here is that it's a divisional/rivalry game, and another is that Opening Week of football can sometimes be a crapshoot. It's also a road game for the Giants - which can't be discounted. The oddsmakers haven't really moved this line since releasing it, despite the heavy Joe Public leaning on the Giants. When I see things like that happening, I tend to lean towards the other side. (No play, but would lean Wash +3)
Week 1 picks (amount bet on each TBD - will post later)
NO/GB Under 47.5 - I like defense to succeed in the first game of the year.
Balt/Pitt Over 36.5 - I've usually been on the under train for this rivalry, but I think these teams' offenses are gonna each get their teams into the 20s. Not as high scoring as their playoff matchup, but I expect each offense to have at least one long TD through the air.
TB -1.5 over Det - Everyone on the Detroit wagon, many think Tampa is a fluke from last year - not me.
StL +3.5 over Phil - I made a killing on StL last year because of oddsmaker/public disrespect. StL will keep it close and may win.
SD -8.5 over Minn - SD is a talented team who will win the division running away as long as their special teams isn't as atrocious as last year. Meanwhile, I don't believe in Minnesota and McNabb's chances.
Carolina +7 over Arizona - I can't spot Arizona this many points. Carolina will be better than last year, rookie QB or not.
Dallas +6.5 over NYJ - Dallas improved under Garrett last year (5-3 close to the season with Kitna as their QB). I am also playing the 9/11 angle (i.e. the Jets having too much pressure playing in NY on the 10 year anniversary of 9/11).
I'll update the actual numbers that I get for each of these games, but I am 99.9% certain these will be my bets.
Enjoy the opening weekend of football, starting with Thursday's battle of the past two Super Bowl champs.
Not gonna bet the side, but I'd like New Orleans +4.5 if I had to bet it.
In this situation, have you ever encountered the "group think" of betting, where everyone sees the same thing you do in the above situation and sees no way in hell of a bet losing? All of my friends can remember the Monday Night game between an undefeated Bears squad and a reeling Arizona team. The Bears came out flat, falling behind 20-0 before making an inspired comeback that helped create the famous "Crown Their Ass" speech of Dennis Green. Unfortunately, we all bet on the Bears to cover about a 13 point spread. I can count on my hand how many times I've won bets where me and all of my friends were on the same side of a winning bet.
The truth is - one must look at lines like this a little closer than your normal lines when gambling. If you do some research on lines that you see that look too good to be true, it may help you stay away from games like this, or in some cases, bet on the other team. That's not to say that those bets always lose- because they don't. If you want to plop down the money on those teams, that's perfectly fine and I wish you the best of luck (as long as I'm not betting the other side).
This year with the blog, I decided to pick a game each week of a line that looks too good to be true - I'll call it the Fool's Gold play of the week. Sometimes I will bet it, sometimes I will avoid it. I have been in a Yahoo pick'em league for many years and like to use the public's perception of a pick to gauge heavy favortism of one side over another. I like to look at games where one team is being picked over another (by the spread) at a 70%+ clip. One particular game stands out for me in week 1.
NYG (-3) at Washington - Right now on Yahoo, the Giants are being picked at a 76% rate, which isn't the highest percentage (NE - 86%, Phil - 80%, Ariz & Cle - 79% each), but to me, it's the line that stands out as the Fool's Gold play of the week. All the talk this offseason on the Redskins has been about the mediocre QB battle betweeen Rex Grossman and John Beck, with the former winning the "battle". So why such a small line on what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFC, perhaps the league? One reason here is that it's a divisional/rivalry game, and another is that Opening Week of football can sometimes be a crapshoot. It's also a road game for the Giants - which can't be discounted. The oddsmakers haven't really moved this line since releasing it, despite the heavy Joe Public leaning on the Giants. When I see things like that happening, I tend to lean towards the other side. (No play, but would lean Wash +3)
Week 1 picks (amount bet on each TBD - will post later)
NO/GB Under 47.5 - I like defense to succeed in the first game of the year.
Balt/Pitt Over 36.5 - I've usually been on the under train for this rivalry, but I think these teams' offenses are gonna each get their teams into the 20s. Not as high scoring as their playoff matchup, but I expect each offense to have at least one long TD through the air.
TB -1.5 over Det - Everyone on the Detroit wagon, many think Tampa is a fluke from last year - not me.
StL +3.5 over Phil - I made a killing on StL last year because of oddsmaker/public disrespect. StL will keep it close and may win.
SD -8.5 over Minn - SD is a talented team who will win the division running away as long as their special teams isn't as atrocious as last year. Meanwhile, I don't believe in Minnesota and McNabb's chances.
Carolina +7 over Arizona - I can't spot Arizona this many points. Carolina will be better than last year, rookie QB or not.
Dallas +6.5 over NYJ - Dallas improved under Garrett last year (5-3 close to the season with Kitna as their QB). I am also playing the 9/11 angle (i.e. the Jets having too much pressure playing in NY on the 10 year anniversary of 9/11).
I'll update the actual numbers that I get for each of these games, but I am 99.9% certain these will be my bets.
Enjoy the opening weekend of football, starting with Thursday's battle of the past two Super Bowl champs.
Not gonna bet the side, but I'd like New Orleans +4.5 if I had to bet it.
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