The NBA playoffs: Where Predictability (Usually) Happens

 I wrote in my last blog about the hockey playoffs and the Blackhawks' chances in it being better than 8 seeds in NBA. While the Hawks being down 2-0 doesn't exactly prove my point, in most years, it's 10 times more likely for an 8 seed to win a series in NHL than in pro basketball. If the oddsmakers at bookmaker have anything to say about it, this point still holds true.
To open the series, the Hawks were +185 odds to win the series. Compare that to the Pacers being +2000 (that's 20/1) to beat the Bulls (-4000) in round 1, and the Spurs/Grizzles handle currently at (-370/+310) for the 1/8 matchup in the West, which is about as low of odds as I'd expect to see in a 1/8 for basketball.

Without further ado, my predictions for the basketball playoffs, series by series:

Round 1:
Bulls over Pacers in 4- Bulls have owned the Central this year. I don't see how the Pacers win more than 1 game.
Magic over Atlanta in 5- The thing to look for here is Howard getting another technical. They can't afford to lose him for future playoff games in round 2. I think the Magic coast here and lose game 3 but win the rest. Magic are -650 to win the series.
Heat over Sixers in 6- Doug Collins deserves some coach of the year votes for his ability to turn around the Sixers within the year, especially after their terrible start. I think they will be able to steal a few games at home but ultimately, the Heat prevail (and I believe the Heat's Big Three will turn their switch on towards the end of this series). The Heat are overwhelming -2050 odds to win the series, so for every dollar you want to win, you have to risk $20.50.

Knicks over Celtics in 6- This looks like the most likely upset of the 4 matchups in the East. The Celtics have lost their edge since losing Perkins. While the Knicks haven't exactly been world beaters since getting Anthony, they've been getting hot as the playoffs approach. I think they'll hold their own in their home games and steal a game in Boston. Knicks sit at +290 odds.

Spurs over Grizzlies in 7- The Spurs are a shadow of themselves compared to their start of the year success. I think the Grizzlies will scare the Spurs and create one of the more surprisingly entertaining 1st round series.
Thunder over Denver in 6- This has my vote as the first round series I am most interested in watching/following. The Thunder are one of the best 4 seeds I've seen on paper since following basketball. They will win their first series as an NBA team in Oklahoma City. OKC coming off the board as a -210, which I consider to be nice odds for them.


Lakers over Hornets in 4- This is where the Lakers turn on the switch. Regular season losing streaks are exactly that- they happen in the regular season. The Lakers won't lose more than a game in this series. Their series odds are -2100, the second biggest favorite behind the Bulls.

Mavs over Blazers in 7- This series determines the team who will lose to the Lakers in round 2. I'd put my money on the Mavs, who aren't usually playing their best basketball historically in late April/early May as a team. I think they have just enough to win here, but beyond that, forget about it. Mavs are the lowest favorites on the board at -190.

Round 2:
Bulls over Magic in 6- Rose is unguardable, but that doesn't mean he will always get the best of Dwight Howard, who will make life more difficult in this series than the Pacers will do. Ultimately, the better team will prevail, and the Bulls continue their improbable run towards the franchise's 7th title. I will guess that the Bulls go off the board at -400 or -500 for this series.
Heat over Knicks in 5- As I said before, I think the Heat's switch turns on towards the end of round 1. While the Heat are capable of playing defense, the Knicks' best defensive plays are usually on offense when they hold the ball for more than 10 seconds. Take this one to the bank. The Heat would be -500 for this series.
Thunder over Spurs in 6- The Spurs have reached their fork in the road, and unfortunately it's not a fork picking up a nice piece of steak. Rather, this fork is covered in gravel bits. Perkins being added to the team will prove to be the best move made at the deadline in the short-term.
Lakers over Mavs in 5- See first round capsules. Laker's switch: ON = Mavs: SCREWED.

Conference Finals:
Heat over Bulls in 6- Consider this blasphemy for someone who owns a Scalabrine jersey, but I have this feeling that the Heat are going to play their best basketball in May. I haven't been able to shake this feeling that the Bulls are playing over their heads and will eventually crash. That's not to say this season would be a disappointment if they finished in the NBA Final Four- far from it. What the Bulls have done this year has been nothing short of incredible. I'm gonna trust my gut on this one and say the Heat win the series, but I will definitely be rooting against this feeling.
Lakers over Thunder in 7- This will be the best series of the NBA playoffs, much like their first-round battle last year (with the Lakers victorious in 6 games). I envision Durant making that next step to becoming closer to legend status, but he will have to bow to elder legend Kobe. I see both gentlemen going off for about 35 ppg in the series, but experience playing in the favor of the Lakers in an epic series.

While Kobe's fingers may look a tad feminine and pale, don't be fooled by thinking they can't flip the switch again.

Finals: Lakers over Heat in 6- The NBA, ESPN, ABC and any other 3/4 lettered sports channel provider gets the finals they wanted to see since LeBron made The Decision and the matchup they've been craving since the Cavs were the 1 seed in back-to-back years in Bryant vs. James. One thing that could play in the Heat's favor is that they'd have home-court advantage in this one should they face each other (Heat have 1 more regular season win than the Lakers). While I think Kobe is nearing the twilight of his status of an elite player, there isn't a single player in the game who has the talent and determination to win than he does. There are others in the game with more talent than him at this point, but Kobe's will to succeed is so much higher than everyone else's. His legs with millions of miles on them are attached to the body of a man whose appetite for championships is that of a starving fat guy left alone at an All-You-Can-Eat fish fry.

An aside: A couple weeks ago, I mentioned to my friend Nick that I think Bryant's draft position in the 1996 draft in the #13 slot is the biggest steal of any draft in NBA history, even moreso than Jordan "falling" to the Bulls at 3 the year he came out. Consider the two players drafted ahead of Jordan- Hakeem and Sam Bowie (can't blame the Rockets for selecting a 7 foot athletic guy who can do everything) vs. the last 6 guys who were picked ahead of Bryant in 1996: Lorenzen Wright (of course to the Clippers), Kerry Kittles, Samaki Walker, Erick Dampier, Todd Fuller (who the hell is he? - here is who "he" is, in case you are interested.) and Vitaly Potapenko. When Erick Dampier is the best player picked in the same range of a draft, you know you're talking about a disasterously fantastic deal the Lakers got to get Bryant- traded to LA after being drafted by the Charlotte Hornets.

Back to the point. With this being Phil Jackson's supposed last hurrah, I think Bryant and company will send Phil out a winner.

This above series would be being played while I am in Vegas for my Vegas VI trip. I hope to see the beginning of what could be an amazing Finals matchup. I hope I'm wrong about the Bulls not making it this far.



 

From Playoff Beard to Playoff Stubble: The Hawks' Short Journey through the Playoffs?

How thick will the Hawks' beards get this year? Beard season starts today.

Everyone who knows me knows I don't follow much hockey, but there's one thing that I love about hockey: the playoff beard. Last year's Hawks squad had a variety of playoff beards growing throughout their Stanley Cup run:

One of the thicker beards last year, as worn by Adam Burish

This beard, proudly worn by Antti Niemi

 
And then, there are the not-so-pretty beards:

My cousin Tony grew better facial hair at the age of 12 than Kane did at 21.
$20 says Kaner punched the cabbie because cabbie said Kane's beard looked like "my wife's lower region".

I guess being talented and having a good beard don't go hand in hand.

From what I hear about the Hawks' inconsistency this year, fans of childish beards grown by adult men will be disappointed when Kane and Toews (among others) get eliminated early by the President Trophy-winning Vancouver Canucks.

The one thing I do know about hockey (and baseball) compared to basketball is that playoff series are a lot more unpredictable and home ice/field does not mean as much when compared to NBA. Seems like every year or every other year, a 1 seed loses to an 8 seed in hockey in at least one of the conferences. The Ducks almost won the Cup less than ten years ago as an 8 seed and the Flyers made it all the way to the Cup as a 7 seed last year against the Hawks.

Also, if history is any indicator, making the playoffs in the last week/game isn't necessarily a bad sign for the Hawks. Some recent sports examples of teams who squeaked into postseason play:

NHL- Flyers (2010): made the playoffs in the last day of the season last year and were two games away from winning the Stanley Cup.

MLB- San Francisco Giants (2010): They squeaked into the playoffs after winning in game 162 (last game of the regular season) vs. the Padres, who helped the Giants get back into the NL West race by losing 10 straight games in September. The Giants went on to win the World Series after besting the Braves, Phillies and Rangers in October.

NFL- Green Bay (2010-11): won their last two regular season games, including an ugly affair against the Bears on the 2nd day of the year, then won the Super Bowl after winning three straight games on the road, including at Chicago.

NCAAB- Butler/VCU (2011): Some say that Butler may not have made the tournament if they did not win their conference tourney; everyone said that VCU did not deserve to be in the play-in game of the newly-expanded 68-team NCAA tournament. Both teams made the most of their opportunities. Butler won a pair of last second victories in the first two rounds, then proceeded to the Final Four after victories against Wisconsin and Florida. Meanwhile, VCU was the first team to need 5 wins to advance to the final weekend, capping off their amazing run by dominating against highly-touted and top-ranked Kansas. While Butler (who beat VCU in the national semis) ended up looking terrible against Uconn, they definitely went further than 99.999% of people thought they would.

So will the Hawks (or another team) join this list? It's much more possible in NHL than NBA. Whereas I could name the 5 teams that even have a shot at the NBA title (no particular order: Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Heat, Spurs), hockey always presents series upsets that allow for any and all teams to have a shot at the title.

Good luck to the Hawks to advance beyond the playoff stubble stage. From what I hear, they'll need all the luck they can get.

Four Seasons, One Summer Shandy

Awesome signs of the summer ahead in the past 6 hours:

-Walking dog around the block: This may not sound like much, especially to those of you who walk your dog for a mile or more. But getting to walk the old dog for at least one more season, one more time, made my day worthwhile. It took about 6 minutes to walk around the block, since Buddy wanted to sniff every tree and urinate on about half of them.

-Summer Shandy commercial: arguably my favorite seasonal beer. I'll need to remember to store up on this when they phase it out in September. I think I'm gonna buy a couple of 12-ers and watch some sports and movies tonight. I hope to find a good bar for the summer that serves this on tap and calling that place my home.

-Donning the shorts: This is always a landmark day of any year- the first day of wearing shorts. This wouldn't mean much to my brother and Tim Wolf, who wear shorts all year round. While the shorts phase is by no means a staple throughout the year, its introduction into the wardrobe makes the pants prepare for their nearing hibernation.

-Softball/baseball/betting: While my mom was misinformed about my pre-teen cousin's softball game being today (it is tomorrow), the sign of games being played is a true sign of summer. Also watching the annually hyped Red Sox/Yanks game on the annually over-rated Joe Buck and Tim McCarver broadcasting network and betting on it (I bet the over, it came in with 4 1/2 innings to spare- first baseball bet won of 3 bets placed this year). And currently, watching the Sox winning with the slimmest of margins through 5.5 innings. Maybe this is the year I get back into baseball, because it's been slowly waning in my consciousness ever since I started watching/betting on NFL. I think going to 10-15 games (my goal) will help with that. If you are reading this, you are encouraged to get me off my ass to go to a game.

Feel free to share your own personal signs of summer.

I can't wait till the above scenarios are all in alignment with each other like an eclipse: a Summer Shandy on an 80 degree day, getting the 15 year old dog to sip the Fountain of Youth for a 5 minute walk, and ending the day at the ball park with a White Sox winner.

Time to buy the beer and get the Summer (Shandy) unofficially started.

Haters Gonna Love Hating

I hate haters. Does that make me no better than them for hating?

Actually, I don't hate haters. I just don't understand the mind of a hater. Before I delve into the subject further, for the 2 of you who read this who would like the cultural definition of hater, here it is, courtesy of urban dictionary:

A person that simply cannot be happy for another person's success. So rather than be happy they make a point of exposing a flaw in that person.

Hating, the result of being a hater, is not exactly jealousy. The hater doesnt really want to be the person he or she hates, rather the hater wants to knock somelse down a notch.

This would be definition #1 (thusly, the most culturally relevant definition) for "hater" out of the 116 entries, so let's just use this one.

I came across a facebook link a friend posted of someone who posted a youtube video on behalf of her friend, who supposedly closed her channel and deleted her videos because of some haters.

As you can see by this chart, which I totally did not just make up on the fly to prove my point, shows a sharp rise in hating as technology has become more rampant in the United States from 2001 thru 2010:



Hater % amongst the population has gone from around 12% in 2001 to 70% in 2010, according to the latest data provided by Bolek Statistical, Inc. (BS, Inc.). Data suggests the lure of anonymous/faceless hating through the use of Internet has brought out the inner-hater in much of America.


Don't believe the graph? That, my friend, makes you a hater. Welcome to the 70% of the population.

If all you spend doing in a given day is disliking videos on youtube and talking crap in Internet forums, get a life. Really. You have less of a life than me- this coming from a guy who engulfs himself in social media and who has 10 people regularly read his pointless blog of non-hatred material.

I wish Facebook could have a dislike button for you haters just to be able to identify you better, but they don't. Wait, forget a dislike button. A hate button.

"Hate the player hater, don't hate the game". Don't mind if I do.

Flipping the Script: From DumbPhone to Smartphone

I shun fancy things like electricity.

Sorry, Weird Al was stuck in mind for a second. Actually, the thing I shunned for the longest time was having a modern, more expensive than $20 type of cell phone. Previous phones, which usually expired on me in about a year's time, were all of the flip variety. One out of the 5 or 6 previous ones had a camera phone (none of the pictures which I ever transferred, by the way), and only had one phone where I used Internet on a trial basis (cancelled it right before the free trial ended).

Left to right: The functionality of my picture phone pre-2010 ----> its functionality now. Some might argue the extra technology did a disservice. That argument is still pending.

Meanwhile, others around me (i.e. 98% of society) were advancing their phone selection to that of the highest standards of the time- the BlackBerrys, I-phones, etc. While my friends would be looking up the latest stats to the games I'd bet on, I'd be thanking them for checking those scores for me. In the land of phones, mine would always feel like how my dad would feel like at a computer convention- completely lost. By the way, this article is not about great analogies, so I'm leaving the previous statement in just because I can.

Anywho, fast-forward to 2010, and my new job come July is working from home as a Sales Support Specialist for a consulting company. The company agrees to pay for my phone bill on a monthly basis. Suddenly, the cheap-phoned mindset that has plagued me for years on end slowly escapes through my pores. A few months later, when my rebate for a new phone kicks in, I get a Blackberry Curve, the newest model of BC that they have. It's so new, in fact, that I conveniently get screwed out of a case for it because apparently they design the phone for it and then release the case design months later- which removes it from the accessory bundle package that I bought.

Five months after the purchase, I couldn't tell you how much I use the phone for purposes outside of work calls. I find myself as addicted to the phone as the very people that I privately (and sometimes publicly) mocked for having a techie disease I'll call modern cellulitis (patent pending).

Can't even keep my phone away from me on the company trip to Puerto Rico.

I send BBMs (a messaging system for Blackberry-to-Blackberry texting), texts and pictures, place bets and statuses on Facebook, and do various other things with my 21st century phone that I could only have dreamed of doing before this year. I must say, it can be technology-overload and there may be sometime in the future where I need a break from all of this.

For now, unfortunately, I have become something (yes, something, not someone- because I've lost part of my humanity here) that I never thought I'd ever be- a droid hooked on his Crackberry.

April Fooled: An MLB Opening Day Edition

Selig to allow Pirates, Royals to start season with 30 wins

New York-- In a move that surprised no one, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig stated in a press release that the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals will start the season with a 30 game advantage on their opponents. Selig cited the move as "a necessary one for competitive balance" that stems from the fact that no one can even remember when these two teams last made the playoffs. Selig's message continues:

"The fan bases of these teams need a reason to follow their team throughout the season. Now August and September will hold some meaning to these franchises aside from the annual September call-ups of minor-league studs who will become future stars on the Yankees and Red Sox."

In his company's database of over 17,000 MLB players throughout history dating back to 1871, baseball-reference.com founder Sean Forman said he cannot recall the last time the Royals or Pirates were any good. He applauds Selig for taking the initiative to give the perennial losers a fighting chance.

"With this 30 game advantage, I fully expect the game of baseball to be given the opportunity to send below-average teams to the playoffs, as basketball and hockey have been able to do throughout the years," Forman said. "I think history will look at this as a wise move by the commissioner that will rank right up there with the blind eye to steroids and making a useless All-Star game carry homefield advantage in the World Series for the winner."

Washington Nationals owner Ted Lurner filed a protest to be among the teams to receive 30 wins, but Selig cited its previous history as a Canadian franchise in Montreal as a nullifer to the win stimulus.

Baseballog - A Quick Look through the 2011 Divisions

Adam Troy Dunn:
The newest face of the Chicago White Sox. I'm expecting a solid OBP, 41 HRs and of course, lots of K's.

Time to get my 2011 predictions put out there in stone and see how they turn out. With each division, I'm gonna go through the best value in the division (according to BookMaker's odds for each division) and then give my pick for the division.

AL East

Best value: Tampa Bay +1000: I know they lost a bunch of big stars via free agency and trades, but their minor league system is loaded. For 10/1 odds, considering they've won their division 2 out of the past 3 years, I'd take my chances.
Winner: Boston -200: I imagine the Yanks pitching staff will improve by July through some trades, but for now, I'll take my chances with Boston. I wouldn't want to lay this much on the dollar for them to win the division though. I think they are slightly over-valued.

AL Central

Best value: Minnesota +160: Chi/Det/Min are jumbled up, with Chicago the slight favorite on the site. When it comes to the AL Central, I err on the side of Minnesota.
Winner: Minnesota: See my last comment. They always seem to pull it out. I'll obviously be rooting for Chicago, but the first tenth of this century has been a Minnesota-led division. Chicago is my Wild Card

AL West

Best value: Los Angeles Angels +300: I don't remember them making any outstanding offseason moves, but any team managed by Mike Scioscia has a fighting chance. They're a few years removed from their better years, but it's worth a shot.
Winner: Texas -160: So the Rangers decided to keep Feliz as the closer, which I think is the right move for now. I don't see the Angels or A's overtaking the Rangers in this division. Lineup is still solid, but the loss of Cliff Lee would be the reason they'd lose this division (if they do). He'd impact their win total by 5-7 games at least.

NL East

Best value: Florida +1000: Another team that usually tends to rebuild well on the fly. They got a lot of solid prospects that are major league worthy around some proven players. Josh Johnson is a legit Cy Young candidate.
Winner: Atlanta +200: This is my semi-shocker of the predictions. I like the direction Atlanta is going in, and I think Philly will fall short of the high expectations placed upon them. People forget how average Oswalt and Hamels have been in the past couple years in spurts, although Oswalt did close last year out very well. Philly is my Wild Card. They'll still be good, don't get me wrong.

NL Central

Best value: Chicago +370: They closed the 2010 season off well with Quade, who the players seemed to get a jolt of energy from with his tireless work ethic and no-BS attitude. His handling of the Silva problem was perfect. I think Chicago does better with lower expectations, so wouldn't shock me to see them make a run for the division crown.
Winner: Milwaukee +215:  I like the staff they have in Milwaukee. Marcum's been an under-rated guy in Toronto, and as long as Greinke doesn't miss too much time, I like their chances. Prince is playing for a new contract. And anytime a guy like Braun has an underachieving year with a .304 average, 25 HR and 103 RBIs, you know you got a great player on your hands.

NL West

Best value: SD +1800: They are an offseason removed from almost winning the division. I know they traded away their best hitter, but I think they have enough pitching on their staff to keep them competitive.
Winner: SF even money: Posey entering his first full season must adjust to the changes that pitchers will make on him. That's usually how sophomore slumps develop- the pitchers adjusting to you quicker than you adjusting to them. I think he will avoid it. Solid pitching staff 1-thru-5 makes the WS champs the pick ahead of Colorado.

PLAYOFFS:

Phil over Mil, SF over Atlanta/ Phil over SF in NL
Chi over Bos, Tex over Min/ Chi over Tex in AL

WS: Phil over Chi

Yes, I got two wild cards in the World Series. Phil will probably win the NL East, but in MLB, it doesn't really matter how you make the playoffs anyways. Whether they win the NL East or not, I think their pitching is the best equipped to win in a 7 game series. However, Philly's +220 to win the whole thing is a little too low for me to bet. Chicago's +2100 to win it all has great value in my opinion. And trust me, this isn't a homer talking. Everyone expects Bost vs. Phil, but how often in baseball do we get the chalk teams to make it to the series? Baseball is too much of a crapshoot on a daily basis, so why not take a crapshoot of a shot on Chicago's odds to win it all.

I'd like to hear your predictions. I will write a follow-up blog in November about this and see how bad these predictions are.

Opening Day and great weather is right around the corner!


Below text, added 4-10-11:

Evaluating a baseball season 2 weeks into it is like analyzing your Calculus grade before you even get the syllabus. I did take a quick look at the division/World Series odds on some of my expected winners/sleepers to see how they changed. Some of the highlights:

Best value in the AL East, Tampa Bay Rays, is now +3000 to win the division. They've started out just god awful- marred with injuries to Longoria, suspensions-turned-retirements with Manny (not like he was gonna do much this year) and various other things I don't feel like looking up. Sam Fuld did just make one of the most amazing catches I've ever seen against the Sox, and he should be fun to watch the rest of the year. But I think there was a reason the Rays were +1000 the year after winning a division title- because they suck.

Winner in AL East, Boston, is now -110. This would have been the value that I would have bought them at to start the year, not the number I found them at initially. They are still slight favorites over the Yanks, who are -105. Overall- my analysis of the East looks shitty to start.

AL Central- Odds not changed much. I never did post this online, but I bet the White Sox $20 to win $420 (21/1 odds) to win the World Series. Today, they are 25/1. Must be that bullpen that scares the shit out of people from backing them now.

AL West- Texas has now become an much higher favorite due to their strong start (-220). This looks like my most solid prediction out of the 6 divisions so far. Not like it took a rocket scientist to predict it though.

NL Central- Haven't really been following most of the NL that closely, but the Cubs' odds fell to +275, so that must mean I would have had value in Cubs +375 for the division (shrug).

NL East- I still like the odds I got (hypothetically) with the Braves, and this shows with them falling to +170 to win the division. Marlins (my sleeper) rose to +1500.

NL West- Again, not much change here with odds. Giants are getting positive back on the dollar now (+110), which I think has great value. If their 5 man rotation stays healthy the entire year, I think they clinch this division with a week to spare.