Six out of eight in my first go-round of NHL hockey series predictions. Not too shabby, especially considering that four of those six correct series picked were the 6 & 7 seeds from each conference. I was really close to 7 of 8, but the Maple Leafs wilted on the ice.
As far as hockey bets go (series bets + game bets), not doing too shabby. 3-1 on my series bets (Wins: Red Wings, Sharks & Penguins/Blackhawks parlay). Unfortunately, my only series loss was also my bet to win the West & the Stanley Cup (damn Blues blowing a 2-0 series lead). I went about 7-7 in my first round individual bets, so again, not too bad.
Out West
My first Stanley Cup bet is still alive (San Jose), but I'm a little nervous with how well the Kings play at home and them having home ice. Both teams dominated home ice in the regular season and playoffs (going a combined 5 for 5 in playoff home games so far). I'm hoping my original prediction of the Wings beating the Blackhawks can come true so that the Sharks would have home ice if they are able to get past the reigning Stanley Cup Champs. If the Sharks lose, then the Hawks might as well win - I won't care about who wins at that point.
Rooting interest (for gambling purposes), I am hoping for Sharks/Wings. As long as the Sharks advance, I'll be happy, but I believe their best path to the Cup involves one without the Blackhawks on the menu (hence, rooting for the Wings).
What I think it will be: Kings/Hawks. See how I covered all my bases there - like a sports journalism pro.
Out East
The Penguins start their first round series against the Senators tomorrow. I originally picked Pittsburgh to advance in this match-up, but I'm switching my pick to Ottawa. Pittsburgh's goaltending/defense was very shaky in Round 1. Meanwhile, Ottawa made a little history in their series against Montreal by being the ultimate closers, outscoring the Canadiens 12-0 in the third period of their five-game series.
The Rangers prevailed in 7 games against the Capitals, and their reward is a conference semifinals series against the Bruins, who came from three goals back, including a two goal deficit with under two minutes to play, to force overtime and down the Maple Leafs in overtime. Based on my friend Tim's assessment of his team (Boston), I am taking the Rangers to win the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second straight year. I am also rooting for the Rangers thanks to my bet on them to win the conference before the playoffs start.
Rooting interest & What I think it will be: Senators & Rangers
We will see if I can build upon my previous round of picking series. I am likely betting the Senators & Red Wings in their first games of the series. I'm thinking I will bet the Rangers series when the odds for it are released.
Feel free to offer your picks below (or in my Facebook/Twitter posts). Enjoy the next round.
5/12/2013
Facing the Heat: Why Refs are the Wrong Focus for Miami's Success
The Miami Heat are a day removed from going up 2-1 in their series against the Chicago Bulls, but it has nothing to do with the skill level of the Heat. At least that's what many in my social network would like you to believe.
Yes, there are times when it gets annoying to see Lebron pout when he doesn't get a call, but let's not act like this is a trait exclusive to the Heat. Whenever I watch Noah or Boozer foul a guy, immediate looks of disgust almost always accompany the whistle and the calling of their number for a personal foul. There's probably at least one or two guys on every team in the league that have the "you gotta be kidding me!" look when they get called for a foul. But when it's your guy complaining, Joe Fan, who blindly supports anything the team does, will see the call the same way as the complaining player and completely neglects the hypocritical nature of their complaints. So yeah, the bitching about Lebron pouting seems silly.
I'm not saying that the Heat don't get any calls in their favor - they do. But I don't believe they get any more or less calls in their favor than most teams in the league, although many of you reading this might wholeheartedly disagree. It's hard to remove fandom with the judgement of other teams and referees. But to think there's a conspiracy theory every time your team loses to a great team who you think is getting hundreds more favorable calls than your team, that's just your fandom talking. Watch a random game of any sport involving two teams you don't care anything about, and you'll see that the bad calls go both ways and usually balance out in the long run.
- "I guess it's the Bulls versus the Heat/refs"
- "The Bulls are playing 5 on 8"
Those are a couple of quotes I came across (among many) since the Bulls/Heat series started. It's all the same complaints recycled from the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals, when the Heat downed the Bulls in 5 games to reach the NBA Finals.
Blaming the refs is the easiest and laziest argument that a fan can make. It works as the perfect defense mechanism when your team loses - I saw this first hand when my boys lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens. Many Niners fans put a big chunk of the blame on the striped shirts for not calling a defensive hold against the Ravens on the Niners' last offensive play in the red zone (a fourth down) when San Fran was down by 5 late in the game.
What those fans failed to mention was the thorough beat-down that the Niners got in the first half that put them in a huge hole. They fail to mention the way Jacoby Jones and others tore apart their secondary and special teams units - the match-ups that ultimately failed the Niners. Just like a basketball game, there will be calls that go against an NFL team, even on the highest stage of the game. That doesn't mean that the referees caused the team to lose. The Niners' chances should have never hinged on a judgement call from the zebras - they shot themselves in the foot too often early on to blame officials for a non-call, which didn't even guarantee them a victory (they still would have needed to score a touchdown, which they failed to do on the previous three plays from the same yard line in the red zone).
The same goes for the bitching that many Bulls fans have done when their team loses to the Heat. They'll call Lebron a whiner (they call him much worse than this, but I have to limit my use of the female dog reference to one mention per paragraph). They'll say that the refs have it in for the Heat and want to see them win the title again.
If the NBA was as rigged as everyone would like you to believe, do you really believe there would have been NBA Finals match-ups like the Spurs/Pistons, Spurs/Nets (or Spurs/anyone), Lakers/Magic? The Spurs are one of the least attractive great teams in NBA history (were never good for ratings), yet in the past 10 years have made the Finals three times (winning all three appearances in 2003, 2005, 2007 in addition to their 1999 appearance). Unless you're an NBA junkie or a fan of one of those teams, I doubt you gave serious thought to watching any of the series mentioned above. And the ratings for those series (particularly the Spurs' ones) prove you likely didn't tune in. If it's all about ratings and money, then the rigging theory doesn't make sense in those situations.
The Heat are not winning because of the refs. They're winning because they're a great team - they did go 66-16 in the regular season after all, outscoring their opponents by an average of 8 points per game. They didn't win 27 straight games this year because the striped shirts assisted them. They had that streak because they were dominant on both ends of the ball, outscoring their opponents by a 105-93 margin during their historic streak.
Speaking of history, Lebron had one of the quietest historical seasons in NBA history this year, shooting an unreal 56.5% from the field, 40.5% from three-point territory (both career highs by far), while averaging nearly 27 points, 8 rebounds (career high set this year) & 7 assists per game. He has improved his field goal percentage every season since the 2006-07 season while continuing to maintain his stellar stats across the board in every other category.
The above facts are not the result of the refs handing them wins, but because of amazing talent and a core who's had the chance to gel together for the past 3 years to become the best team in the league.
Yes, there are times when it gets annoying to see Lebron pout when he doesn't get a call, but let's not act like this is a trait exclusive to the Heat. Whenever I watch Noah or Boozer foul a guy, immediate looks of disgust almost always accompany the whistle and the calling of their number for a personal foul. There's probably at least one or two guys on every team in the league that have the "you gotta be kidding me!" look when they get called for a foul. But when it's your guy complaining, Joe Fan, who blindly supports anything the team does, will see the call the same way as the complaining player and completely neglects the hypocritical nature of their complaints. So yeah, the bitching about Lebron pouting seems silly.
And it's funny that of all teams, Bulls fans will complain about the star treatment that Lebron gets when a half NBA generation ago, they were witnesses to Air Jordan, who got his fair share of calls in his favor (his last shot with the Bulls when he pushed off on Byron Russell was the perfect example - if Lebron did that, Bulls fans would scream "Bullshit!")
 |
| Your team gets calls too. You're just pretending it doesn't happen. |
And think about how many times your team gets breaks from referees. Oh wait, you can't, because they never make calls in your team's favor. I bet you can name 20 instances of refs being against your team before you can name a situation where a call benefited your team. You're way more likely to remember the times that an external force outside of your players (the refs) supposedly caused your team to lose than you are to remember when the refs may have made a big call in your favor to aid a victory. When your team wins, you attribute your team's win to their immense skill, not because they had a beneficial call or set of calls in a game. When your team loses, it's because the refs screwed them over. You can't have it both ways.
I fully expect the Heat to close this series out - if not in 5 games, then probably 6. And I also fully expect that the refs will be the root blame of the Bulls defeat, not the Heat's players, who have shot 60% & 50% in their past two games against a tough Bulls defense. Even without some defensive stoppers like Deng & Hinrich, the Bulls' defense is still a top-notch unit, making the Heat's hot shooting even more impressive.
Give some credit where credit is due. The Heat are good - damn good. I know you hate them, which is probably another reason why you might say the refs are favoring them. For the next set of games, try going 5 or 10 minutes without saying the word "referee" and instead focus on the players making the plays - I bet you can't.
The Heat will get a call here and there that goes in their favor, but it won't be the reason they win the series. They'll win it because they're better. Simple as that.
5/10/2013
Choose Your Own Adventure: The Chicago Apartment Edition
I remember those Choose Your Own Adventure books where turning to page 43 would lead you down a very different path than page 61. There would be many times where I would pick one, but would read the page I didn't pick anyways. Just to see if I made the right choice, and how the outcome would have differed if I made a different choice.
Unfortunately, life doesn't work that way. The page you choose is the only page you get to read. Granted, not every page leads to an important and immediate impact to your life. This point in my life is not one of those cases. After all, why the hell would I start with this Choose Your Own Adventure crap if I was deciding between the pros and cons of eating a peanut butter sandwich versus a turkey sub for lunch.
When the page you decide to turn is where you plan on living next, we're talking about a whole different book. We (me and Jen) started the process of looking for apartments later than we would have liked, but after things were cleared up in my life to start breathing again, we started Operation Find An Apartment (OFAA for short - ok, we never called it an operation, you got me).
Last week, we looked at a nice place in a neighborhood called Ukranian Village that was home or soon to be home to many of Jen's friends and co-workers. Unfortunately, our interest went from 10 to -50 when we heard that cats were not allowed. Back to the apartment hunt.
Last Friday, I was able to lock up two apartment viewings for this week. Both of those opportunities faded like a fart in the wind when one of our appointments went from being moved from Sunday to Tuesday, only to be outright canceled when the guy who was going to show us the apartment called to tell us that the tenant decided to renew their lease. And the other apartment ended up being a piece of crap. Son of a...
Luckily, I was able to secure a viewing of a place for the same time slot as the canceled appointment. Finally, a decent place that allowed cats. A smaller place than many of the places we've looked at, but a place that interested us enough to start the application process.
All the while, one more apartment viewing scheduled for the week for a place in Logan Square. I filled the paper work on the other place out in the meantime, just making sure we had a go-to place in case this last viewing ended up being a dud. The problem was, it really wasn't a dud.
When seeing this Logan Square unit, it was as if I was able to picture our current items (computer desk, furniture, television) in this particular place. I gathered that while Jen liked the charm of the first place, the extra space that we get from this place (it's essentially a 3-bedroom apartment that's advertised as a two-bed) at a more affordable price was enough to make us collectively decide that we want this place.
The Choose Your Own Adventure part of the story comes into play a couple hours after we got the application for the Logan Square place. After waiting to hear from the Tuesday apartment on whether or not we would be able to move in June 1st (apparently, the tenant said she wasn't going to move out till July 1st in between the apartment showing and Wednesday), I got a call from the landlord of that place while waiting in my car as Jen ran into Walgreens. "Good news Brian, you are able to move in June 1."
Since I wanted an extra day to assess our options, especially since we're leaning towards Apartment 2, I hesitated to give a definite answer on when a good time would be to sign for Apartment 1. I mean, I think we've made our decision that we like the second place better, but we're still waiting on whether we are approved to sign for that place. Also, we're unclear on whether there is any competition for this place. In the event there was, I immediately put our application check in the mail, hoping that it will get there right away. I also sent our applications via email to Apartment 2's landlord, whose housing group consists of an Italian family business that dates back to the late 19th century.
While we don't want to risk losing a place for a place we might not even get, I think we are going to take that risk. We're turning to page 61, and soon we will find out the results of our choice. We may never have the chance to see page 43's story, but when it comes to making choices, you must always go with the choice that you can live with, the one that makes you the happiest. We can live with the choices that go awry but that we made with the best data available and with our short-term and long-term happiness in mind.
Let's hope that page 61 is a great page for the two of us.
Unfortunately, life doesn't work that way. The page you choose is the only page you get to read. Granted, not every page leads to an important and immediate impact to your life. This point in my life is not one of those cases. After all, why the hell would I start with this Choose Your Own Adventure crap if I was deciding between the pros and cons of eating a peanut butter sandwich versus a turkey sub for lunch.
When the page you decide to turn is where you plan on living next, we're talking about a whole different book. We (me and Jen) started the process of looking for apartments later than we would have liked, but after things were cleared up in my life to start breathing again, we started Operation Find An Apartment (OFAA for short - ok, we never called it an operation, you got me).
Last week, we looked at a nice place in a neighborhood called Ukranian Village that was home or soon to be home to many of Jen's friends and co-workers. Unfortunately, our interest went from 10 to -50 when we heard that cats were not allowed. Back to the apartment hunt.
Last Friday, I was able to lock up two apartment viewings for this week. Both of those opportunities faded like a fart in the wind when one of our appointments went from being moved from Sunday to Tuesday, only to be outright canceled when the guy who was going to show us the apartment called to tell us that the tenant decided to renew their lease. And the other apartment ended up being a piece of crap. Son of a...
Luckily, I was able to secure a viewing of a place for the same time slot as the canceled appointment. Finally, a decent place that allowed cats. A smaller place than many of the places we've looked at, but a place that interested us enough to start the application process.
All the while, one more apartment viewing scheduled for the week for a place in Logan Square. I filled the paper work on the other place out in the meantime, just making sure we had a go-to place in case this last viewing ended up being a dud. The problem was, it really wasn't a dud.
When seeing this Logan Square unit, it was as if I was able to picture our current items (computer desk, furniture, television) in this particular place. I gathered that while Jen liked the charm of the first place, the extra space that we get from this place (it's essentially a 3-bedroom apartment that's advertised as a two-bed) at a more affordable price was enough to make us collectively decide that we want this place.
The Choose Your Own Adventure part of the story comes into play a couple hours after we got the application for the Logan Square place. After waiting to hear from the Tuesday apartment on whether or not we would be able to move in June 1st (apparently, the tenant said she wasn't going to move out till July 1st in between the apartment showing and Wednesday), I got a call from the landlord of that place while waiting in my car as Jen ran into Walgreens. "Good news Brian, you are able to move in June 1."
Since I wanted an extra day to assess our options, especially since we're leaning towards Apartment 2, I hesitated to give a definite answer on when a good time would be to sign for Apartment 1. I mean, I think we've made our decision that we like the second place better, but we're still waiting on whether we are approved to sign for that place. Also, we're unclear on whether there is any competition for this place. In the event there was, I immediately put our application check in the mail, hoping that it will get there right away. I also sent our applications via email to Apartment 2's landlord, whose housing group consists of an Italian family business that dates back to the late 19th century.
While we don't want to risk losing a place for a place we might not even get, I think we are going to take that risk. We're turning to page 61, and soon we will find out the results of our choice. We may never have the chance to see page 43's story, but when it comes to making choices, you must always go with the choice that you can live with, the one that makes you the happiest. We can live with the choices that go awry but that we made with the best data available and with our short-term and long-term happiness in mind.
Let's hope that page 61 is a great page for the two of us.
5/02/2013
Chapter 11 Fit Happens: The B-Bo Dynasty?
Rule of thumb: if you ever have the opportunity to refer to yourself in the third person, make sure you are doing so in the context of success.
With that being said, B-Bo feels pretty confident in his ability to speak in the third person vernacular for this particular blog - the eleventh chapter of Fit Happens.
The final weigh in was earlier on Wednesday, and while B-Bo was not delighted to see his bid for a third victorious month in the contest (out of four) fail when Williams posted his weigh in for April, he was still quite satisfied with his second place finish for the month, which accompanies his second-place finish in February. Here are the results from the month, followed by the overall results through 120 days:
As expected, this month was the lowest amount of weight loss and weight loss percentage for a winner of a month. Each month has been more difficult for the contestants to lose weight. Note the totals below for monthly breakdown in weight loss:
So what will be different this month? What will be the next step in B-Bo's dominance? Some thoughts:
With that being said, B-Bo feels pretty confident in his ability to speak in the third person vernacular for this particular blog - the eleventh chapter of Fit Happens.
The final weigh in was earlier on Wednesday, and while B-Bo was not delighted to see his bid for a third victorious month in the contest (out of four) fail when Williams posted his weigh in for April, he was still quite satisfied with his second place finish for the month, which accompanies his second-place finish in February. Here are the results from the month, followed by the overall results through 120 days:
| User | lbs | % |
|---|---|---|
| Dave | 0.6 lbs | 0.22 % |
| Hippo | -1.4 lbs | -0.64 % |
| LionEsquire | -5.6 lbs | -2.51 % |
| B-Bo Knows Weight Loss | -3.6 lbs | -1.73 % |
| User | lbs | % |
|---|---|---|
| Dave | -15.8 lbs | -5.47 % |
| Hippo | -28.8 lbs | -11.66 % |
| LionEsquire | -26.4 lbs | -10.82 % |
| B-Bo Knows Weight Loss | -30.8 lbs | -13.07 % |
As expected, this month was the lowest amount of weight loss and weight loss percentage for a winner of a month. Each month has been more difficult for the contestants to lose weight. Note the totals below for monthly breakdown in weight loss:
| B-Bo | Hippo | Chris | Magic Bus | |
| Jan 1 - Feb 1 | -13 | -11.4 | -13.2 | -11.8 |
| Feb 1 - Mar 1 | -7 | -8.8 | -5.4 | -4.2 |
| Mar 1 - Apr 1 | -7.2 | -7.2 | -2.2 | -0.4 |
| Apr 1 - May 1 | -3.6 | -1.4 | -5.6 | 0.6 |
| May 1 - June 1 | ||||
| June 1 - July 1 | ||||
| -30.8 | -28.8 | -26.4 | -15.8 |
So what will be different this month? What will be the next step in B-Bo's dominance? Some thoughts:
- Nike+ - I just got this app on my Android, which tracks my distance, time, path, and calories burned for each run I do. I plan on using it just for outdoor runs. I believe it will get me to run outside more in preparation for the Warrior Dash that I am doing in June. Also, with this being my last month in the South Loop, I need to take advantage of the nice running area by Grant Park and the Lakeside.
- Weights - I will be trying to incorporate weights (not free weights, but more machines and dumbbells) into my workout. This should help me shed weight at a slightly faster clip.
- Shakes - Jen just bought us a blender that we plan on putting to good use. I just finished my first shake that had strawberries, bananas and oats, among other things. I believe having these shakes on a regular basis in lieu of some of the junk I may eat will help my diet out. (Just noticed that items 2 and 3 can be rearranged to become Shake Weight)
- Outdoor Sports? - I hope to play an outdoor sport of some sort on a somewhat regular basis (basketball, softball, whatever). Perhaps joining a league is an option.
- Below 200 - The above items, as well as the continued intensity of workout that I've been doing throughout the months, will hopefully help dip my weight to below 200 pounds. It would signal me reaching my contest goal a month ahead of time and would be a major accomplishment for me as I look to continue my healthy journey.
- Uncle B-Bo - I am looking to reach the Below 200 goal before I become an uncle. Whether I have a niece or a nephew, I would love to be under 200 pounds for his or her entire life. With my sister-in-law due in about three weeks, I may not achieve this goal, but I'll do my best to get there.
That about wraps 'er up for Chapter 11. Hope you enjoyed this latest edition. I will return either later this month or at the beginning of June to share my latest adventures and hopefully another winning month.
Peace.
4/30/2013
Sure, What the Hell: My First Ever Stanley Cup Preview
Not...really....sure...what...to....do....here. A Stanley Cup preview? Am I high? Not that I'm cognizant of, anyways.
Hell, I didn't even give my yearly preview of the NBA Finals (you can consult my previous NBA Playoff previews to know who I will pick to win it all - Miami).
But with all my cool friends who say that the NHL playoffs are the best playoff season in sports, I felt, sure, get some cheap page views and try learning about a sport at the same time.
I posted a Facebook inquiry Monday evening to see who people thought would make the Stanley Cup, and it reminded me of similar sports where there seems to be a consensus pick for the final showdown of the season. In football, many people had Denver winning it all (couldn't even win a game). In college basketball, Louisville was the most popular pick to win it all, many brackets having them beat Indiana (they beat another Big Ten team instead).
If the people are right, the Stanley Cup will be hoisted by the winner of the Chicago Blackhawks & Pittsburgh Penguins.
Pick Your Friends, Pick Your Nose, But Don't Take Your Friend's Picks: Stanley Cup Predictions
Here are the predictions that my friends and I have made for the Cup, and what the odds (according to 5dimes) of these match-ups occurring):
(note: I picked NYR & StL based on some folks who I trust w/ their hockey knowledge. My thinking: In hockey more than any other sport, upsets in series seem to occur frequently. I was also looking for teams who had good goaltending numbers, since that seems to be a great way to make a run to the Cup)
Pitt vs. Chi - 4 people picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +588 - overwhelming favorite - next closest is Boston/Chi at +1400)
Pitt vs. Anaheim - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +1895)
Pitt vs. Det - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +3800)
Pitt vs. Minnesota - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +4650)
NYR vs. StL - 2 people picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +11100)
Fun with Numbers w/ current playoff teams
Head to Head Match-ups (first round)
Pitt vs NYI (Pitt won season series 4-1)
Mon vs. Ottawa (tied 2-2)
Wash vs. NYR (Rangers won 2-1)
Bos vs. Tor (Boston won 3-1)
Chi vs. Min (Chi won 2-1)
Ana vs. Det (Det won 2-1)
Van vs. SJ (SJ won 3-0)
StL vs. LA (LA won 3-0)
Last 10 Games (teams w/ highest/lowest differentials from each conference highlighted)
Wash 8-1-1 (36 goals, 22 allowed)
Pitt 8-2 (40 goals, 25 allowed)
Chi 7-2-1 (27 goals, 19 allowed)
St Louis 7-3 (22 goals, 17 allowed)
NYR 7-3 (35 goals, 22 allowed)
NYI 6-1-3 (30 goals, 22 allowed)
Ottawa 6-4 (22 goals, 19 allowed)
Det 5-2-3 (25 goals, 15 allowed)
LA 5-3-2 (22 goals, 26 allowed)
Van 5-4-1 (24 goals, 26 allowed)
Ana 5-4-1 (23 goals, 23 allowed)
Tor 5-4-1 (28 goals, 27 allowed)
SJ 5-5 (26 goals, 22 allowed)
Min 4-5-1 (19 goals, 30 allowed)
Mon 4-6 (29 goals, 35 allowed)
Bos 3-5-2 (21 goals, 28 allowed)
Personal Predictions/Bets
Bets:
Stl to win Cup 17/1 (bet this week)
SJ to win Cup 25/1 (bet in March)
NYR to win East 10/1 (bet this week)
StL to win West 8/1 (bet this week)
Stl over LA in R1 1.08/1
Det over Ana in R1 1.20/1
SJ over Van in R1 1.05/1
Round 1
1. Pitt over 8. NYI
7. Ottawa over 2. Montreal
6. NYR over 3. Wash
5. Tor over 4. Bost
1. Chi over 8. Min
7. Det over 2. Ana
6. SJ over 3. Van
4. Stl over 5. LA
Conference Semis (Reseeded)
1. Pitt over 7. Ottawa
6. NYR over 5. Toronto
7. Det over 1. Chi
4. Stl over 6. SJ
Conference Finals
6. NYR over 1. Pitt
4. Stl over 7. Det
Stanley Cup
4. Stl over 6. NYR
Hell, I didn't even give my yearly preview of the NBA Finals (you can consult my previous NBA Playoff previews to know who I will pick to win it all - Miami).
But with all my cool friends who say that the NHL playoffs are the best playoff season in sports, I felt, sure, get some cheap page views and try learning about a sport at the same time.
I posted a Facebook inquiry Monday evening to see who people thought would make the Stanley Cup, and it reminded me of similar sports where there seems to be a consensus pick for the final showdown of the season. In football, many people had Denver winning it all (couldn't even win a game). In college basketball, Louisville was the most popular pick to win it all, many brackets having them beat Indiana (they beat another Big Ten team instead).
If the people are right, the Stanley Cup will be hoisted by the winner of the Chicago Blackhawks & Pittsburgh Penguins.
Pick Your Friends, Pick Your Nose, But Don't Take Your Friend's Picks: Stanley Cup Predictions
Here are the predictions that my friends and I have made for the Cup, and what the odds (according to 5dimes) of these match-ups occurring):
(note: I picked NYR & StL based on some folks who I trust w/ their hockey knowledge. My thinking: In hockey more than any other sport, upsets in series seem to occur frequently. I was also looking for teams who had good goaltending numbers, since that seems to be a great way to make a run to the Cup)
Pitt vs. Chi - 4 people picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +588 - overwhelming favorite - next closest is Boston/Chi at +1400)
Pitt vs. Anaheim - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +1895)
Pitt vs. Det - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +3800)
Pitt vs. Minnesota - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +4650)
NYR vs. StL - 2 people picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +11100)
Fun with Numbers w/ current playoff teams
Head to Head Match-ups (first round)
Pitt vs NYI (Pitt won season series 4-1)
Mon vs. Ottawa (tied 2-2)
Wash vs. NYR (Rangers won 2-1)
Bos vs. Tor (Boston won 3-1)
Chi vs. Min (Chi won 2-1)
Ana vs. Det (Det won 2-1)
Van vs. SJ (SJ won 3-0)
StL vs. LA (LA won 3-0)
Last 10 Games (teams w/ highest/lowest differentials from each conference highlighted)
Wash 8-1-1 (36 goals, 22 allowed)
Pitt 8-2 (40 goals, 25 allowed)
Chi 7-2-1 (27 goals, 19 allowed)
St Louis 7-3 (22 goals, 17 allowed)
NYR 7-3 (35 goals, 22 allowed)
NYI 6-1-3 (30 goals, 22 allowed)
Ottawa 6-4 (22 goals, 19 allowed)
Det 5-2-3 (25 goals, 15 allowed)
LA 5-3-2 (22 goals, 26 allowed)
Van 5-4-1 (24 goals, 26 allowed)
Ana 5-4-1 (23 goals, 23 allowed)
Tor 5-4-1 (28 goals, 27 allowed)
SJ 5-5 (26 goals, 22 allowed)
Min 4-5-1 (19 goals, 30 allowed)
Mon 4-6 (29 goals, 35 allowed)
Bos 3-5-2 (21 goals, 28 allowed)
Personal Predictions/Bets
Bets:
Stl to win Cup 17/1 (bet this week)
SJ to win Cup 25/1 (bet in March)
NYR to win East 10/1 (bet this week)
StL to win West 8/1 (bet this week)
Stl over LA in R1 1.08/1
Det over Ana in R1 1.20/1
SJ over Van in R1 1.05/1
Round 1
1. Pitt over 8. NYI
7. Ottawa over 2. Montreal
6. NYR over 3. Wash
5. Tor over 4. Bost
1. Chi over 8. Min
7. Det over 2. Ana
6. SJ over 3. Van
4. Stl over 5. LA
Conference Semis (Reseeded)
1. Pitt over 7. Ottawa
6. NYR over 5. Toronto
7. Det over 1. Chi
4. Stl over 6. SJ
Conference Finals
6. NYR over 1. Pitt
4. Stl over 7. Det
Stanley Cup
4. Stl over 6. NYR
4/29/2013
If You Can't Beat Him: What NBA Contenders Should Fear Regarding Lebron
When Lebron James joined the Heat in the summer of 2010, he joined a stable headlined by Dwyane Wade (who had been with the Heat for his whole career) and Chris Bosh. All of these guys came from the same NBA Draft (2003 - one of the best NBA Draft classes of all time) and all were free agents at the same time.
The Heat filled out their roster with the likes of Mike Bibby, Mike Miller and Juwon Howard, among others. In total, their playoff roster in 2010-11 featured seven players (out of 13 guys who played at least one game in the playoffs) who signed with the Heat in that offseason. They failed to win the NBA title that year, losing to the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. However, this model of "Let's Hitch Onto Lebron's Wagon" was just about to start.
Miami won the title in 2011-12 with two new free agent signings (Shane Battier & Ronnie Turiaf) and look poised to repeat while adding Ray Allen, Chris Andersen (aka Birdman) and Rashard Lewis to the roster.
Joining the King's Dynasty
There's a very interesting feature to almost of all these players who have become new to the Heat roster since Lebron signed - their willingness to play significantly less minutes than they are accustomed to in hopes of winning their first (or in some cases, their second) NBA titles.
In the 19 total seasons played by the 11 newly signed Heat in the past 3 years, a total of 14 of those seasons (over 70%) featured a player playing 15% less minutes than the player in question averaged in the previous five seasons before joining the Heat. The only season by a new Heat player where more minutes were played as a member of the Heat was Chris Bosh's first year with the team (seeing a slight bump from 36.3 minutes to 37.6). Otherwise, his other two seasons (and the other 16 combined seasons) featured a lower-than-average MPG total.
These 11 new players since Lebron joined have appeared in a total of six NBA Finals (3 titles), so many of them were willing to play less minutes in order to win their first (or second titles) championship largely on the back of Lebron.
For example, Shane Battier has prominently been a starter in the league, averaging 33.6 minutes per game in the 5 seasons before he became a member of the Heat for the 2010-11 season. In his two seasons with the Heat, he has averaged 23.1 and 24.8 minutes per game, or about an average of 30% less playing time than he was accustomed to before the Heat.
The 2012-13 additions (Allen, Andersen, Lewis) are all averaging more than a 20% decrease in minutes from their previous five seasons respectively, with Allen (from 35.7 minutes to 25.8) and Lewis (34.3 to 14.4) seeing the biggest drops in playing time.
So what do these numbers tell you below?
Once veteran players have reached that point in their career where playing for a team that has never won or even sniffed an NBA crown, the ones who worry less about playing time (and money) will be the first ones in line to play with Lebron while he is at the peak of his game. You might see veterans doing this (playing less minutes and making less) with some other contending teams right now (the Thunder come to mind) - all for the chance to win that NBA title that has eluded them for most or all of their extended careers. Out of the 11 newbies who have joined the Heat in the past 3 years, only one of them (Ronnie Turiaf) has been in the league for a shorter time than Lebron.
To make a short story long, what many NBA teams have to worry about is talented veteran players (guys who could still log starter minutes if they wanted to) choosing to forego larger contracts and instead play with the Heat as long as Lebron is there.
As the years progress (and as long as Lebron remains with the Heat), this trend should only continue. The Heat will be a very attractive destination for these title-starved players, who likely have made their share of money and will sacrifice a little money earned and court minutes to win their first/next ring.
The Heat filled out their roster with the likes of Mike Bibby, Mike Miller and Juwon Howard, among others. In total, their playoff roster in 2010-11 featured seven players (out of 13 guys who played at least one game in the playoffs) who signed with the Heat in that offseason. They failed to win the NBA title that year, losing to the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. However, this model of "Let's Hitch Onto Lebron's Wagon" was just about to start.
Miami won the title in 2011-12 with two new free agent signings (Shane Battier & Ronnie Turiaf) and look poised to repeat while adding Ray Allen, Chris Andersen (aka Birdman) and Rashard Lewis to the roster.
Joining the King's Dynasty
There's a very interesting feature to almost of all these players who have become new to the Heat roster since Lebron signed - their willingness to play significantly less minutes than they are accustomed to in hopes of winning their first (or in some cases, their second) NBA titles.
In the 19 total seasons played by the 11 newly signed Heat in the past 3 years, a total of 14 of those seasons (over 70%) featured a player playing 15% less minutes than the player in question averaged in the previous five seasons before joining the Heat. The only season by a new Heat player where more minutes were played as a member of the Heat was Chris Bosh's first year with the team (seeing a slight bump from 36.3 minutes to 37.6). Otherwise, his other two seasons (and the other 16 combined seasons) featured a lower-than-average MPG total.
These 11 new players since Lebron joined have appeared in a total of six NBA Finals (3 titles), so many of them were willing to play less minutes in order to win their first (or second titles) championship largely on the back of Lebron.
For example, Shane Battier has prominently been a starter in the league, averaging 33.6 minutes per game in the 5 seasons before he became a member of the Heat for the 2010-11 season. In his two seasons with the Heat, he has averaged 23.1 and 24.8 minutes per game, or about an average of 30% less playing time than he was accustomed to before the Heat.
The 2012-13 additions (Allen, Andersen, Lewis) are all averaging more than a 20% decrease in minutes from their previous five seasons respectively, with Allen (from 35.7 minutes to 25.8) and Lewis (34.3 to 14.4) seeing the biggest drops in playing time.
So what do these numbers tell you below?
Once veteran players have reached that point in their career where playing for a team that has never won or even sniffed an NBA crown, the ones who worry less about playing time (and money) will be the first ones in line to play with Lebron while he is at the peak of his game. You might see veterans doing this (playing less minutes and making less) with some other contending teams right now (the Thunder come to mind) - all for the chance to win that NBA title that has eluded them for most or all of their extended careers. Out of the 11 newbies who have joined the Heat in the past 3 years, only one of them (Ronnie Turiaf) has been in the league for a shorter time than Lebron.
To make a short story long, what many NBA teams have to worry about is talented veteran players (guys who could still log starter minutes if they wanted to) choosing to forego larger contracts and instead play with the Heat as long as Lebron is there.
As the years progress (and as long as Lebron remains with the Heat), this trend should only continue. The Heat will be a very attractive destination for these title-starved players, who likely have made their share of money and will sacrifice a little money earned and court minutes to win their first/next ring.
| Averages | 5 seasons before Heat/James | 2010-11 | % Decrease in Mins | 2011-12 | % Diff | 2012-13 | % Diff |
| Wade | 37.89 | 37.14 | 0.02 | 33.2 | 0.12 | 34.7 | 0.08 |
| Bosh | 36.3 | 37.64 | -0.04 | 35.2 | 0.03 | 33.2 | 0.09 |
| Chalmers | 28.6 | 22.55 | 0.21 | 28.5 | 0.00 | 26.9 | 0.06 |
| Anthony | 16.97 | 19.51 | -0.15 | 21.1 | -0.24 | 9.1 | 0.46 |
| Bibby | 33.58 | 26.45 | 0.21 | ||||
| Miller | 34.14 | 20.44 | 0.40 | 19.3 | 0.43 | 15.3 | 0.55 |
| Jones | 19.5 | 19.12 | 0.02 | 13.1 | 0.33 | 5.8 | 0.70 |
| Haslem | 31.8 | 26.54 | 0.17 | 24.8 | 0.22 | 18.9 | 0.41 |
| Howard | 21.9 | 10.39 | 0.53 | 6.8 | 0.68 | 7.3 | 0.67 |
| Ilgauskas | 27.2 | 15.9 | 0.42 | ||||
| House | 17.98 | 17.46 | 0.03 | ||||
| Magloire | 19.38 | 8.78 | 0.55 | ||||
| Battier | 33.61 | 23.1 | 0.31 | 24.8 | 0.26 | ||
| Turiaf | 18.67 | 17 | 0.09 | ||||
| Allen | 35.68 | 25.8 | 0.28 | ||||
| Andersen | 19.24 | 14.9 | 0.23 | ||||
| Lewis | 34.25 | 14.4 | 0.58 |
4/28/2013
An Ordinary April Day, An Extraordinary Sports Day
When my weekend started with a hungry cat waking me up and basically begging me to go to Jewel in my gym shorts at around 11:30am, I didn't think that much could be made of this day. Sure, I had my plans for the day: watch parts of the NFL draft and the Bulls game. Yeah, a little action on the game didn't hurt, but I would have wanted to watch the game anyways - I love NBA playoff games.
However, between the two events, I could never have anticipated that the next 2-4 hours would present itself with a couple of great sports moments that came out of nowhere and reaffirmed why I have loved sports since raising myself on it since I was a 4 or 5 year old.
Faith Yes (Latti)More
At around the same time the Bulls game was starting, the San Francisco 49ers (my boys) were drafting in the fourth round of the NFL draft. I'm not even sure why I had the draft on. At that point in the draft, I'll usually just ignore the draft on TV and casually read a story about the picks later in the day, but something had me gravitating towards the 4th round. Who would the Niners pick?
I had heard Marcus Lattimore on the Dan Patrick Show earlier in the week mention that there were a few teams that were interested in drafting him in the mid-rounds, despite tearing nearly every important leg ligament back in October. One of those teams was the Niners, whose running back stable is pretty strong and also has a starting RB who had some bad leg injuries while in college (Frank Gore). And that guy didn't turn out so badly, did he?
You see where this story is going - the Niners went ahead and selected Lattimore with the 131st overall pick in this year's draft, about the halfway point of the draft. However, if he can overcome his injury, there's many who think he could be the best player in this draft class. Needless to say, I marked out and screamed for the first time for a fourth round pick in my lifetime.
Lattimore may not be able to overcome the several severe leg injuries that he has suffered throughout the years, but that's not the point today. The story from today is one of hope - the football equivalent of the part of Spring Training where pitchers and catchers report. As a sports fan, all you want is some hope for your team from time to time - especially during offseason moments when your next year's team is being built.
Consider me among the millions of many hopeful Niners fans who believe. For the first time since the Super Bowl ended with my boys on the wrong end of the Super Bowl, I can officially ask...is it NFL yet?
DAAAAAAA BULLS
And that Bulls games that I mentioned? At first, it was your average playoff game. Strong first half shooting by both teams had me thinking that it was going to be a close game. I had bet the Bulls to cover the 3 point spread for the game. They led by 3 at the half, but I wasn't feeling strong about the bet, so I "bought out of the bet" (bet the Nets to win the 2nd half), which essentially made it so it didn't matter what happened in the second half - I broke even.
My buying out bet looked smart for the majority of the second half, until Nate Robinson, NBA's version of Mighty Mouse, decided to turn in one of the best NBA Playoff performances in recent memory. The Bulls stormed back from a double digit deficit with just over 3 minutes left to force overtime thanks to the shooting exploits of Mr. Robinson.
The first overtime featured twists and turns that were befitting of an all-time classic game. Robinson's bank shot with 2 seconds put the Bulls ahead by two, only to be matched by Joe Johnson's buzzer shot that forced a second overtime.
At that time, I left my apartment in a frenetic fast-walking pace (I had to meet Jen at her work and thought with a fast walk and leaving early that I could catch the end of the second overtime). I missed the second overtime, but luckily got to the bar next to Jen's work to catch most of the third overtime.
As I sat there and enjoyed one of my first Summy Shandys of 2013, I overheard several groups of people saying that they left this game over an hour before (when they were trailing in the fourth quarter). What the hell - how can you leave any game early, especially a playoff game? I don't care about the traffic implications. If you're willing to buy tickets for a playoff game AND attend it, you have to see the game all the way through. A regular season game, I still think you sit through the entire game, but I'll at least excuse it a little bit, especially since it's only one of 82 (or w/ baseball, 162, etc.).
But leaving during a playoff game? It's only one of seven guaranteed games in a playoff series (if you're lucky enough to win some games in it). I couldn't imagine buying tickets to a Bulls game like that and leaving early because the game was "out of hand" or "I wanted to beat traffic". I wish the United Center took pictures of these people and never let them attend another playoff game again.
Anywho, I'm waaaaay off track. The Bulls ended up winning the game in the third overtime (my second bet on the Nets ended up being a loser). The game is an instant classic. A game which I am currently watching on replay.
I never thought that an ordinary day in sports could turn into one which reaffirmed why I love it so much. Thanks to Lattimore and Nate Robinson, I was able to remember what attracted me to sports in the first place - hope, drama, redemption, success.
Like the cat when I came home with food, my day's appetite was fulfilled.
However, between the two events, I could never have anticipated that the next 2-4 hours would present itself with a couple of great sports moments that came out of nowhere and reaffirmed why I have loved sports since raising myself on it since I was a 4 or 5 year old.
Faith Yes (Latti)More
At around the same time the Bulls game was starting, the San Francisco 49ers (my boys) were drafting in the fourth round of the NFL draft. I'm not even sure why I had the draft on. At that point in the draft, I'll usually just ignore the draft on TV and casually read a story about the picks later in the day, but something had me gravitating towards the 4th round. Who would the Niners pick?
I had heard Marcus Lattimore on the Dan Patrick Show earlier in the week mention that there were a few teams that were interested in drafting him in the mid-rounds, despite tearing nearly every important leg ligament back in October. One of those teams was the Niners, whose running back stable is pretty strong and also has a starting RB who had some bad leg injuries while in college (Frank Gore). And that guy didn't turn out so badly, did he?
You see where this story is going - the Niners went ahead and selected Lattimore with the 131st overall pick in this year's draft, about the halfway point of the draft. However, if he can overcome his injury, there's many who think he could be the best player in this draft class. Needless to say, I marked out and screamed for the first time for a fourth round pick in my lifetime.
Lattimore may not be able to overcome the several severe leg injuries that he has suffered throughout the years, but that's not the point today. The story from today is one of hope - the football equivalent of the part of Spring Training where pitchers and catchers report. As a sports fan, all you want is some hope for your team from time to time - especially during offseason moments when your next year's team is being built.
Consider me among the millions of many hopeful Niners fans who believe. For the first time since the Super Bowl ended with my boys on the wrong end of the Super Bowl, I can officially ask...is it NFL yet?
DAAAAAAA BULLS
And that Bulls games that I mentioned? At first, it was your average playoff game. Strong first half shooting by both teams had me thinking that it was going to be a close game. I had bet the Bulls to cover the 3 point spread for the game. They led by 3 at the half, but I wasn't feeling strong about the bet, so I "bought out of the bet" (bet the Nets to win the 2nd half), which essentially made it so it didn't matter what happened in the second half - I broke even.
My buying out bet looked smart for the majority of the second half, until Nate Robinson, NBA's version of Mighty Mouse, decided to turn in one of the best NBA Playoff performances in recent memory. The Bulls stormed back from a double digit deficit with just over 3 minutes left to force overtime thanks to the shooting exploits of Mr. Robinson.
The first overtime featured twists and turns that were befitting of an all-time classic game. Robinson's bank shot with 2 seconds put the Bulls ahead by two, only to be matched by Joe Johnson's buzzer shot that forced a second overtime.
At that time, I left my apartment in a frenetic fast-walking pace (I had to meet Jen at her work and thought with a fast walk and leaving early that I could catch the end of the second overtime). I missed the second overtime, but luckily got to the bar next to Jen's work to catch most of the third overtime.
As I sat there and enjoyed one of my first Summy Shandys of 2013, I overheard several groups of people saying that they left this game over an hour before (when they were trailing in the fourth quarter). What the hell - how can you leave any game early, especially a playoff game? I don't care about the traffic implications. If you're willing to buy tickets for a playoff game AND attend it, you have to see the game all the way through. A regular season game, I still think you sit through the entire game, but I'll at least excuse it a little bit, especially since it's only one of 82 (or w/ baseball, 162, etc.).
But leaving during a playoff game? It's only one of seven guaranteed games in a playoff series (if you're lucky enough to win some games in it). I couldn't imagine buying tickets to a Bulls game like that and leaving early because the game was "out of hand" or "I wanted to beat traffic". I wish the United Center took pictures of these people and never let them attend another playoff game again.
Anywho, I'm waaaaay off track. The Bulls ended up winning the game in the third overtime (my second bet on the Nets ended up being a loser). The game is an instant classic. A game which I am currently watching on replay.
I never thought that an ordinary day in sports could turn into one which reaffirmed why I love it so much. Thanks to Lattimore and Nate Robinson, I was able to remember what attracted me to sports in the first place - hope, drama, redemption, success.
Like the cat when I came home with food, my day's appetite was fulfilled.
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