Redemption

Nothing like the Shawshank kind, but I've been an advocate of this word a lot this year. With all the self-inflicted wounds that I have healed as best as I can, I've learned a lot about myself and how I can become a better man. I've had great people surrounding me during these times, making the climbing out of the muck transition a lot easier. With that, my confidence has grown and much of my life (save the love life) has been what I wanted.

Applying this attitude towards my handicapping skills will be no different. Every gambler goes through rough patches, and instead of panicking, the best way to handle the bad times is to keep your cool and keep everything in perspective. Greener pastures remain in sight on all horizons in life.

Ok...enough of that emo self-reflecting crap...

College picks for week 10 of college football, pick in bold as always:

Last week: 0-3 (first 0-fer this year), -$165, YTD: 15-16-1 (-$154)...not doing so hot lately, eugh. Getting pwned

Illinois (+3) at Michigan: Last week I made the mistake of erasing the only bet that I would have won only to replace it with a bet that got beat to shit. I forgot if I referenced it as a homer bet, but f- that this week. Michigan is in a tailspin and can't stop anyone (allowing nearly 40 points a game in Big Ten games). While I don't think either team will approach that number this week, I feel that Illinois' solid D will be able to contain Denard enough to keep things respectable on the scoreboard. I say Illinois walks away from Ann Arbor a victor and one step closer to being ranked for the first time this year.

Arizona State (+5.5) at USC: Despite its 4-4 record, ASU has been playing very competitve this year, having the distinction of losing by the least amount of points to Oregon this year (11). USC got it handed to them in an emotional game last week against those Ducks. A letdown from playing #1 Oregon to a lesser opponent should be expected, especially since Oregon was basically USC's bowl game for the year (with their bowl ban in effect for this year).

Iowa at Indiana (+17.5): After a pair of home games featuring ranked opponents, including last week's whoopin of MSU, Iowa is due for a letdown (There we go with that letdown word again...). Anyways, Indiana is more competitive at home, losing close games to NU and Mich. Not to say Iowa is in the class of those teams (much higher obviously), but I say Iowa wins by about 10.

Consider this my rise to power once again.

Dollars won > dollars earned

It's Been Awhile

Writer's block can sometimes kick in, and the end of Oct, beginning of Nov has not inspired much in the way of writing. The days count till Vegas (8 now), working on our last days of TV1 in my night class (I'll be hosting a community spotlight, which will be airing on a Downers Grove local access channel) and trying to get back into the fitness kick. All things considered, my focus is on those things in descending order. In the next week, I'll be glad to book bets for you should the need arise.

I didn't post any of my NFL picks last week, but I won $100 on the Lions and lost $66 on Houston's spread, so a winning week. I'm gonna book Virginia Tech tonight (who has been on a roll since their first two losses to open the year) and I'm giving Illinois a hard look at +3 going into Ann Arbor for Saturday action. Thank god baseball is over- not only for betting purposes, but for the simple fact that the season drags once you know your team is out of it. Baseball has very little national appeal any more in terms of people caring to watch games involving teams outside of their market. Ratings for the Giants World Series victory tied the lowest rating mark with the Phils/Rays from two years ago. Bring on basketball (and perhaps I'll get more into hockey this year).

If you think of any bets that you'd like me to book for you (or make for you), please let me know. I'll dedicate $20 bets to people on roulette and make them in the order that I receive them. If your bet comes in for me, I'll buy you a beer. I'll bet red, black, a number (or a couple), whatever. You name it, I'll bet it.

Peace out.

Highway to Helloween

October 31st, 2009: Oh how I remember it oh so very clear. It was a sunny fall morning, and I had just placed a bet on Indiana (+17.5) for $100 on my favorite gambling site Bookmaker. I had twisted Tim's arm into betting it with me, so now I was doubly excited to see the fruits of my knowledge grow into profit for the day. I remember betting against Iowa because of their knack for keeping games close, regardless of opponent. Things started great, with Indiana jumping to a 21-7 lead at half on what turned out to be an incredibly windy day at the stadium. The lead peaked at 17 with an Indiana field goal early in the 3rd, but that was when things went completely bonkers. Mind you, I'm being spotted +17.5 so the lead is actually 34.5 (or just under 5 touchdowns). However, 5 touchdowns later, including a 29 yard rushing touchdown with a minute left on 3rd down for Iowa, led to one of the most heartbreaking losses in gambling history for me. Earlier in the week, I nearly suffered a heart attack when Miami (+6) blew a huge lead against New Orleans and ended up losing straight up by 12 after allowing a pick 6 with about a minute or two left. That cost me a ML bet I had on Miami and also a 3-4 team parlay in which the first legs of it already came in.

Lesson of the above story: Gambling is not for the faint of heart.

With that being said, let's see if I can avenge the ghosts of yesteryear and make some money with college football:

College week 9 with picks in (bold)...last week: 1-3 (including Thursday night game), -$125....YTD: 15-12-1, +$66


Mich St (+6.5) at Iowa: Michigan State just keeps on winning, their latest being an impressive comeback against Northwestern on the road. If MSU would have just blown out NU, I might be inclined they'd be in for a let down. However, a team who has done nothing but win so far shouldn't be getting 6.5 points i n a situation like this. I think MSU has a good chance to win this game, so I'll gladly take the points here. I consider this my strong bet of the day. It should be a close game either way and very well could be a defensive-based game.

Arizona (-9) at UCLA: By no means is this me betting against UCLA strictly based on a revenge factor. UCLA clearly did not trust their freshman quarterback against a very talented Oregon team, running the ball 47 times vs. 23 passes in a 60-13 drubbing. Normally when you start trailing by, I don't know, 2-3 scores, you start passing the ball, but not these guys. UCLA's strategy was that of a team that knows it sucks and can't be a two-dimensional offense. Meanwhile, Arizona possesses a top 30 offense and a top 10 defense. The only way AZ doesn't cover here is if they are looking ahead to their game at Stanford next week. I say Arizona shuts down the Bruins by 20.

Oklahoma State/Kansas State (Over 67): OK St. enters the game as the 2nd highest scoring team in the nation (48.3 points per game) while yielding 30.6 points and near the bottom of college football in passing yards allowed (286). KSU puts up 34 a game themselves while allowing a more modest 26/game. However, their 428 yards allowed/game suggest that Ok St. should be able to move the ball, with or without their top receiver. I expect this score to be in the high 70s.

I may or may not bet equal amounts on these games. I'll post totals of what I bet on each later tonight. I'm definitely liking Mich St the best. I had an Illinois write up all ready to convince myself to bet them, but (1) it felt like a homer bet, (2) Illinois may be due for a moderate let-down after a convincing homecoming win over Indiana and (3) 17 points is a lot to lay on a team that is fairly mediocre offensively.

Let's hope to avoid the Helloween misfortune from last year and make some money.

By the way, I'm going as Brett Favre to a costume party. I haven't decided yet about any of my decisions once I get to the party regarding food, alcohol consumption and whether I am going to textually harass anyone. Just assume the answer to all of those would be what you would expect.

Peace.

Would you....

Go on a trip by yourself, with it being Vegas out of all places? While I will be having some friends going the day before me and we should be spending some time together, for the majority of the trip I will be at the sports book and eateries by myself wandering the strip and downing 7 and 7s and assorted mixed drinks, assuming Faderoff doesn't go on the trip.

I haven't officially booked the trip yet, but it's a formality. I need a weekend away from this town, and I feel like a trip to Vegas where I could essentially spend 2/3s of the time alone might actually be a blessing. I've never gone on a big trip in my life alone and still don't do a lot of social things alone (like going to the movies for example). My Vegas cohorts are going to the clubs there several/all of the nights, and maybe it's just me, but I get nothing out of spending $30 for cover and $10/beer to see a bunch of asshole yuppies talk about their sexual conquests and how big of whores they are (and yes, whore can apply to man as well). Also, I am not calling my friends who are going whores, unless of course they are asshole yuppies that talk about their sexual conquests.

I can't wait for Vegas, and in a weird way can't wait for some time alone and away from everything. Not that I hate life here, I just need a change of scenery. Who knows, maybe I'll have one or two Vegas moments that just stay there.

Vegas: A weekend get-away that can be enjoyed with 20 people or alone

2010-2011 NBA predictions/ day 1 bet

Opening bet of the day: Houston/LA Under 195( $44 to win $40): Kobe injury and limited minutes (30 max), Yao adding a defensive presence for about 24 mins and the distraction of the ring ceremony for the Lakers should keep this game close and likely low scoring. Six of their last eight, including a few playoff games, have gone under the total.

Enjoy these predictions and feel to add some of your own...

(1) LeBron reveals he is a woman and leads the NY Liberty to a championship.
(2) Kevin Durant breaks his leg tripping over a Dwight Howard free throw that lands near the Thunder bench.
(3) Chris Bosh gets home sick, refuses to leave Canada following Miami's first game in Toronto. Toronto offers 10 of Jose Bautista's home runs in exchange.
(4) As he leads the NBA in scoring, Brian Scalabrine starts up a Boston Celtics cheerleading squad composed entirely of curly-haired gingers.
(5) Allen Iverson accidently attends several practices for his Turkish basketball squad, causing him to be fined 5000 Turkish lira.
(6) Inspired by all the bad records Brett Favre has set this season, Don Nelson comes out of retirement to coach Cleveland, Minnesota, Golden State and New Jersey simultaneously to expand on his career loss record as coach.
(7) Locks of Love refuses the hair donation of Joakim Noah, to the delight of leukemia patients that'd rather be bald.
(8) Shawn Kemp comes out of retirement and has a kid with Eva Longoria. NBA scorekeepers give Tony Parker the assist.
(9) To pass the time before he gets traded, Carmelo Anthony puts the "high" in "Mile High" and is seen watching Scooby Doo cartoons on his I-phone and eating family-sized bag of Cheetos during halftime and TV timeouts.
(10) Blake Griffin only averages 5 points a game due to his unfortunate ability to get lost inside of Baron Davis' beard. Clippers soon learn that's where many of their wins have been hiding, but do nothing about it.

Monday musings and pick

Random Monday musings:

If Brett Favre plays through this injury, this cements him as a "me-first" athlete. Dude could barely walk and got diagnosed with something fractured in his ankle. I honestly believe Tavarus would be a better option for next week, no joke. We haven't seen him play in a few years, but right now Favre is just gonna hurt his team if she stays out there. I just realized I typed she but don't feel like correcting it.

If Big Ben was black, would Pittsburgh have warmed up so quickly to him following his 4-game suspension following his discretions in a Georgia bar with a female? I'm normally not the first one to bring up race in a situation, but do you think Gilbert Arenas is gonna get a standing ovation when/if he starts playing for the Wizards in the NBA? Granted some of this might be apples and oranges, but you gotta wonder why women were cheering him. I sound like a neo-conservative with these rants here, but just something to think about.

Vegas is the best place on Earth. What other place in the world can you lose a grand, forget about everything that happened and pay for a hotel you never use, all the while enjoying every minute of the above? Only the greatest place in the world. I hope to have a new phone in a few weeks to let you loyal followers of said blog in on a Brian Bolek weekend in Vegas.

San Fran plays Denver over in London next week. I hope the game ends in a tie and Europe tells the NFL that they no longer want to host NFL games. Also, I predict Singletary will be "left behind" and encouraged to suck at coaching a different brand of football and on a different continent.

Pick of the day: Dallas (-3/3.5) over NYG- The desperate team wins here by a couple scores. Dallas 34-23. I hope to get the line at -3 but we'll see. My winning NFL week is once again dependent on my MNF showing, which I have lost the past two weeks. 3-2, $40 yesterday.

Have a good evening my people.

I'm Charlie Murphy bitch/Week 7 pickickicks

Eddie Murphy- Quit fucking around and come back to your raunchy hysterical stand-up.

I need to sleep more...but sleep is for the weak. I'm watching Charlie Murphy right now- sadly he is the best Murphy (ok, maybe the only one) doing stand-up right now. His best work was with Chappelle, especially the Prince skit. We need the 80s Eddie Murphy to return back for one more epic show and let today's generation know what they were missing when Raw was made.

Anyways, I digress.

Picks for Sunday, with chosen lines highlighed in bolded ( ):

Last week, including MNF: 2-2 (-$12)
NFL Year to date: 19-14, +$185

Cincy at Atlanta (-3.5): I projected this line a lot higher (-5) than it started at, and now I'm seeing Atlanta down to -3 at some online books. Philly made Atlanta their beotch last week, but that's bound to happen every now and then on the road, especially when they've played an unbalanced 4 road games (2-2 record) vs. 2 home games (both wins). Cincy hasn't done a ton to impress me so far aside from surviving an offensive struggle vs. Baltimore. Palmer has been hit or miss this year. I'll go with my gut and say he misses this week. Only thing that worries me here is Cincy coming off of a bye, but I think the home cooking treats Atlanta right. Atlanta 28-17.

Washington (+3) at Chicago: Let the Jay Cutler concussion watch continue. Washington has knocked out a few players the past couple weeks (Dallas Clark last week, Finley & Rodgers the week before, among others) and very well could add Jay-walker to that list. Martz says they should have ran it more last week and will probably say the same thing again this week when he has another week of 70%+ passing. The only way Chi wins this week is on special teams. Wash has played tough in just about every game this year, either winning or being within 3 points of doing so in 5 of 6 games this year. I say McNabb leads them to a straight-up win, 21-17.

Cleveland (+13) at New Orleans: Looks like a similar spot as a few weeks ago when NO was spotting a similar amount against a team with a rookie QB and an offense whose strength is around the running game. NO won their first game ATS last week with a convincing win against Tampa, but Tampa has no run game (or didn't have much else) to compete with NO. Cleveland has competed and had a chance to win every game they played except last week, when they failed to cover the same spread as this week when Big Ben (fuck him, I'm calling him this even as he says he doesn't wanna call him that- when you can't control your wanker and get NFL suspension because of it, you don't get to tell us what to call you) threw a late TD pass to lead to the cover. This looks like a 24-17 game for NO.

StL at Tampa (-3): Tampa is coming off a rough home loss to the team highlighted above (NO). StL is 3-3, coming off an upset victory over San Diego (as highlighted here in the B-Blog). So why the Tampa pick here? Tampa is a lot better than they showed themselves to be last week. If not this week, I see them featuring LaGarrette Blount at running back very soon. Dude would have been a solid draft pick if not for his incident against Boise to open last year's college season. Meanwhile, St. Louis has laid a few turds on the road this year against Oakland and St Louis (covering against the former, destroyed against the latter). I think the Bucs continue this trend and win by 7-10, let's say 24-14.

New England at San Diego (-2.5): Note to gamblers- when 9 out of 10 of your friends just absolutely love a certain line, you're probably better off picking the brain of that 1 person who sees something different than what the 9 others believe. This line has the NE lovers coming out in full-bloom, much like we did (yes, I say we cuz I bet NE) when they faced NYJ in week 2 following a less than impressive opener against Baltimore while NE beat down on Cincy. We all know what happened to NE that game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome this week with the Pats going west facing a team that is the epitome of Two Face. Terrible on the road, great at home. Granted, those two home wins were against Jax and Ariz, but it's easy to forget about SD having the top offense and defense in terms of yardage when their special teams have been terrible to say the least. People are worried about SD's injuries, but with Gates playing, that's all I need to know. Rivers will make the most out of those around him (I'm talking to you Patrick Crayton) and lead SD to a much needed win.


And as I close this post, Chappelle Show closes my night. What a great ending to a night.

Let's get back to some winning this week.