The NFL offseason brought about some things about teams and players that I love, some on the opposite spectrum.
I love...the fact that the NFC West still appears to be weak as hell. This gives the Niners a fighting chance to win the division.
I hate...that we are giving Alex Smith yet another chance to prove himself. I'm not sure if Harbaugh is a mad scientist or what, but he has been on record as saying he wanted Smith to be back with the team. I'm not saying Kaepernick is the answer, but I'd almost rather throw a rookie out there. It's not like Smith has done anything to earn the starting spot again.
I love...at least for week 1, the disrespect that the Buccaneers are getting. Tampa went 10-6 last year, but missed the playoffs based on losing a tiebreaker to Green Bay. I know that Tampa had a somewhat weak schedule, but they took advantage of it, sweeping Carolina and their 4 NFC West games on their way to a 9-1 record versus sub-.500 team. I know they need to do better against good teams (only win was Week 17 against the Saints, who benched their starters), but I think their core of players will keep them on the right side of .500 this year. Their only loss in that 9-1 stretch, coincidentally, came to the team that is next on my list.
I hate...how much love the Lions are getting from across the spectrum of media. Believe me, this is hard to say with how much money I made on Detroit games last season. I'd like Detroit's chances a lot better if LeShoure didn't get hurt for the year, because he would have been a great compliment to speedster Jahvid Best. Also, their other impact rookie, Nick Fairley, won't be starting Week 1 after having surgery on his foot last month -who knows how long it will take him to have an impact once he does get on the field. And last but not least, Matt Stafford hasn't been healthy for an entire season yet. He's their ultimate key for making the next step and making a playoff run, so I'm waiting to see him play a full season before I can push the Lions forward as a playoff contender.
I love...that Favre is finally out of the NFL. The media (not him) tried bringing his name back into the circles of conversation with rumors of him going to the Eagles as a backup and the Colts when Manning's status to start the season was in doubt. The first rumor, let me say, was about the most laughable rumor in the history of rumors. Does anyone actually believe that Favre would be a willing back-up for someone? The Colts would have been more reasonable, but Favre would have likely been murdered if he decided to go back out there.
I hate...that the Texans are now the favorites in their division and getting some media love. Before Manning's injury was known to be one that could have him missing the season, the Texans were a sleeper division pick. Don't get me wrong - I think the Texans will win the division and deserve to be the favorite at this point. I'm just being a Pouty Pete because I wanted them to be more of underdogs going into the season so that my prediction back in August would look more ballsy.
With those things being said, I am making my first college picks of the year in week 2. Games are Saturday games. Likely making them $44 plays.
Michigan +3 over Notre Dame - I think Michigan is going to thrive behind their home crowd in the first game under the lights at the Big House. I usually end up betting this rivalry game and betting it wrong, so you make want to play Notre Dame for all you can.
Oregon -27 over Nevada - Oregon is not happy after their performance against LSU and will put a hurting on Nevada here.
Tulsa -12 over Tulane - This is complete degenerate action here, but a lot of the good handicappers on Covers (the site I use for gambling research) are loving this line, so I figured I'd give it a shot.
I'll likely have another NFL blog up by Monday, with a possible pick for Monday's game.
Have a good weekend folks, and enjoy opening weekend of the NFL - I know I will.
9/08/2011
Date & See (Chapter 3)
For those of you who haven't been following my online dating, here are the first two chapters of my journey in the online dating world:
Chapter 1 (Intro to Online Dating)
Chapter 2 (Reflection After a Week)
The end of chapter 2 has me looking forward to a date, which occurred earlier this week.
In the day or two preceding the date, I must say it was a mixture of anxiousness, excitement and a tad bit of nervousness. I was more calmed than anything though since during that time, I was able to keep in touch with the date as we got to know each other better through some online conversation and then after exchanging numbers, some texting. As we talked more, it seemed like we kept finding more things that we had in common - which made me look forward to the date that much more.
Date Day - Stay Cool, Ice Cold (Before the Date)
Date day comes. You would think that I'd have a slight nervousness at points in the day, especially as my work day progresses towards its end. I was as cool as a cucumber (to be honest, I never understood this phrase - probably because I don't handle cucumbers and have no idea on their temperature tendencies). I knew it to be a more casual of a first date, so a polo and jeans would suffice.
I had to stop at a gas station for some breath mints, so Mentos it was - a fairly insignificant event compared to the next one I almost faced. I almost didn't make it to my first date. As I was heading north on Pulaski, a car turning left was somewhat impeding the path of a car behind it, so it creeped into my lane, missing me by inches. Luckily, when I slammed on the brakes, there was no one tailing me.
The Waiting Game
So I get to the date a little early and text my date, letting her know what to look for and that I'll be waiting outside. She texts me close to the start of the date time, saying she's just about to leave and apologizes several times.
Waiting, playing on my Crackberry, waiting some more.
I'm not going to be left at a pizza place by myself on what was supposed to be my first date, am I?
I knew she lived closed, so I was doubting she had left - sure enough, she hadn't. I get another text apologizing even more, assuring me she had just left and she'll explain when she gets there.
Finally....The Date
My phone had froze when I accidently deleted an app of mine, so I had to restart it. In that time, she texted me where I was at, but luckily I saw someone who matched her profile looking like she was looking for someone.
(Sidenote: I mean, who wouldn't be looking for me? I mean, look at me, right? End of sidenote)
I give somewhat of an awkward hug to her to say hello, tell her I'm starving and let's get some food! We ended up going to Barraco's in Evergreen Park and getting some deep dish pizza. I'd say the conversation flowed well, much like the online conversations we had been having. I got to learn about her adventures from the summer and other past stories that she told that showed me that she was comfortable talking to me. I always appreciate people who can open up to me, but this being a first date and first time meeting each other, I appreciated it that much more. It helps I'm sure that I've opened up to her a lot about random crap.
Part 1 of the date being over, we stood outside of the Barraco's trying to figure out our next step of the date. I even said to her that we were looking like a bunch of idiots standing outside of a restaurant that is adjacent to a busy street. Luckily, the term idiot or whatever offshoot of the word I used doesn't seem to offend her. We finally decided on living up to the bet that we made the day before via text: loser of a darts game has to buy the other ice cream.
(Sidenote 2: I really did enjoy the simpleness of the date - pizza, darts and ice cream. It seemed to fit both of our personalities well)
So we go to Durbins in Burbank for a few games of darts. After ordering our only drinks (me a Blue Moon, her a Jack and Coke), we get into our dart games. From these games, I learn that she is very competitive, as she says she may not talk to me again if I beat her. I do appreciate her competitive nature, as we both agree that nobody should ever participate in any activity and not expect to win. My prospects of talking to her beyond the date were looking good, as I was quickly trailing after 5 rounds in our first Count Up game of darts by over 130. In round 6, I pulled a round of 129 out of my ass (2 triple 20s and a 9) and then overtook her in the next round to capture the victory. Needless to say, she wasn't happy. I didn't need quite the comebacks in the next two games, both victories for me. Game 4 was hers, but the damage was done. I won 3 of 4 games and essentially ruined my chances of talking to her beyond this date.
Just kidding. We ended up getting ice cream after - a Neopolitan scoop with another ice cream for her (sorry, I forgot the other scoop) and a double peanut butter/chocolate scoop - both waffle cones. Apparently, the Baskin Robbins we went to holds some significance to her, with her and her friends spending many a night being obnoxious (hmmmm....sounds like me and my friends traditionally being obnoxious at bowling alleys and restaurants). We continued to converse well there and called it a night a little after 11pm.
As we walk outside, I thought about a kiss on the cheek good night but figured that since we established a second date that maybe it could wait. Before hugging her good bye, I made note of her looking better in person than she did through her pictures. She appeared to blush - yeah, let's say she blushed when I said that. I'm pretty sure she did. Once she reads this, she can let me know if she did.
I drove off back to home with a satisfied feeling after date 1 and was (and am) very anxious for date 2 to take place. We established an idea for a date 2 that I consider to be a revolutionary contribution to the dating world....and I will let you know about that idea next week.
Chapter 1 (Intro to Online Dating)
Chapter 2 (Reflection After a Week)
The end of chapter 2 has me looking forward to a date, which occurred earlier this week.
In the day or two preceding the date, I must say it was a mixture of anxiousness, excitement and a tad bit of nervousness. I was more calmed than anything though since during that time, I was able to keep in touch with the date as we got to know each other better through some online conversation and then after exchanging numbers, some texting. As we talked more, it seemed like we kept finding more things that we had in common - which made me look forward to the date that much more.
Date Day - Stay Cool, Ice Cold (Before the Date)
Date day comes. You would think that I'd have a slight nervousness at points in the day, especially as my work day progresses towards its end. I was as cool as a cucumber (to be honest, I never understood this phrase - probably because I don't handle cucumbers and have no idea on their temperature tendencies). I knew it to be a more casual of a first date, so a polo and jeans would suffice.
I had to stop at a gas station for some breath mints, so Mentos it was - a fairly insignificant event compared to the next one I almost faced. I almost didn't make it to my first date. As I was heading north on Pulaski, a car turning left was somewhat impeding the path of a car behind it, so it creeped into my lane, missing me by inches. Luckily, when I slammed on the brakes, there was no one tailing me.
The Waiting Game
So I get to the date a little early and text my date, letting her know what to look for and that I'll be waiting outside. She texts me close to the start of the date time, saying she's just about to leave and apologizes several times.
Waiting, playing on my Crackberry, waiting some more.
I'm not going to be left at a pizza place by myself on what was supposed to be my first date, am I?
I knew she lived closed, so I was doubting she had left - sure enough, she hadn't. I get another text apologizing even more, assuring me she had just left and she'll explain when she gets there.
Finally....The Date
My phone had froze when I accidently deleted an app of mine, so I had to restart it. In that time, she texted me where I was at, but luckily I saw someone who matched her profile looking like she was looking for someone.
(Sidenote: I mean, who wouldn't be looking for me? I mean, look at me, right? End of sidenote)
I give somewhat of an awkward hug to her to say hello, tell her I'm starving and let's get some food! We ended up going to Barraco's in Evergreen Park and getting some deep dish pizza. I'd say the conversation flowed well, much like the online conversations we had been having. I got to learn about her adventures from the summer and other past stories that she told that showed me that she was comfortable talking to me. I always appreciate people who can open up to me, but this being a first date and first time meeting each other, I appreciated it that much more. It helps I'm sure that I've opened up to her a lot about random crap.
Part 1 of the date being over, we stood outside of the Barraco's trying to figure out our next step of the date. I even said to her that we were looking like a bunch of idiots standing outside of a restaurant that is adjacent to a busy street. Luckily, the term idiot or whatever offshoot of the word I used doesn't seem to offend her. We finally decided on living up to the bet that we made the day before via text: loser of a darts game has to buy the other ice cream.
(Sidenote 2: I really did enjoy the simpleness of the date - pizza, darts and ice cream. It seemed to fit both of our personalities well)
So we go to Durbins in Burbank for a few games of darts. After ordering our only drinks (me a Blue Moon, her a Jack and Coke), we get into our dart games. From these games, I learn that she is very competitive, as she says she may not talk to me again if I beat her. I do appreciate her competitive nature, as we both agree that nobody should ever participate in any activity and not expect to win. My prospects of talking to her beyond the date were looking good, as I was quickly trailing after 5 rounds in our first Count Up game of darts by over 130. In round 6, I pulled a round of 129 out of my ass (2 triple 20s and a 9) and then overtook her in the next round to capture the victory. Needless to say, she wasn't happy. I didn't need quite the comebacks in the next two games, both victories for me. Game 4 was hers, but the damage was done. I won 3 of 4 games and essentially ruined my chances of talking to her beyond this date.
Just kidding. We ended up getting ice cream after - a Neopolitan scoop with another ice cream for her (sorry, I forgot the other scoop) and a double peanut butter/chocolate scoop - both waffle cones. Apparently, the Baskin Robbins we went to holds some significance to her, with her and her friends spending many a night being obnoxious (hmmmm....sounds like me and my friends traditionally being obnoxious at bowling alleys and restaurants). We continued to converse well there and called it a night a little after 11pm.
As we walk outside, I thought about a kiss on the cheek good night but figured that since we established a second date that maybe it could wait. Before hugging her good bye, I made note of her looking better in person than she did through her pictures. She appeared to blush - yeah, let's say she blushed when I said that. I'm pretty sure she did. Once she reads this, she can let me know if she did.
I drove off back to home with a satisfied feeling after date 1 and was (and am) very anxious for date 2 to take place. We established an idea for a date 2 that I consider to be a revolutionary contribution to the dating world....and I will let you know about that idea next week.
9/07/2011
Bet/Don't Bet on it - Fools Gold and Week 1 Picks
For all of you folks who have placed a bet in the NFL before - have you ever seen a line too good to be true, bet on that outcome, only to see it fail miserably?
In this situation, have you ever encountered the "group think" of betting, where everyone sees the same thing you do in the above situation and sees no way in hell of a bet losing? All of my friends can remember the Monday Night game between an undefeated Bears squad and a reeling Arizona team. The Bears came out flat, falling behind 20-0 before making an inspired comeback that helped create the famous "Crown Their Ass" speech of Dennis Green. Unfortunately, we all bet on the Bears to cover about a 13 point spread. I can count on my hand how many times I've won bets where me and all of my friends were on the same side of a winning bet.
The truth is - one must look at lines like this a little closer than your normal lines when gambling. If you do some research on lines that you see that look too good to be true, it may help you stay away from games like this, or in some cases, bet on the other team. That's not to say that those bets always lose- because they don't. If you want to plop down the money on those teams, that's perfectly fine and I wish you the best of luck (as long as I'm not betting the other side).
This year with the blog, I decided to pick a game each week of a line that looks too good to be true - I'll call it the Fool's Gold play of the week. Sometimes I will bet it, sometimes I will avoid it. I have been in a Yahoo pick'em league for many years and like to use the public's perception of a pick to gauge heavy favortism of one side over another. I like to look at games where one team is being picked over another (by the spread) at a 70%+ clip. One particular game stands out for me in week 1.
NYG (-3) at Washington - Right now on Yahoo, the Giants are being picked at a 76% rate, which isn't the highest percentage (NE - 86%, Phil - 80%, Ariz & Cle - 79% each), but to me, it's the line that stands out as the Fool's Gold play of the week. All the talk this offseason on the Redskins has been about the mediocre QB battle betweeen Rex Grossman and John Beck, with the former winning the "battle". So why such a small line on what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFC, perhaps the league? One reason here is that it's a divisional/rivalry game, and another is that Opening Week of football can sometimes be a crapshoot. It's also a road game for the Giants - which can't be discounted. The oddsmakers haven't really moved this line since releasing it, despite the heavy Joe Public leaning on the Giants. When I see things like that happening, I tend to lean towards the other side. (No play, but would lean Wash +3)
Week 1 picks (amount bet on each TBD - will post later)
NO/GB Under 47.5 - I like defense to succeed in the first game of the year.
Balt/Pitt Over 36.5 - I've usually been on the under train for this rivalry, but I think these teams' offenses are gonna each get their teams into the 20s. Not as high scoring as their playoff matchup, but I expect each offense to have at least one long TD through the air.
TB -1.5 over Det - Everyone on the Detroit wagon, many think Tampa is a fluke from last year - not me.
StL +3.5 over Phil - I made a killing on StL last year because of oddsmaker/public disrespect. StL will keep it close and may win.
SD -8.5 over Minn - SD is a talented team who will win the division running away as long as their special teams isn't as atrocious as last year. Meanwhile, I don't believe in Minnesota and McNabb's chances.
Carolina +7 over Arizona - I can't spot Arizona this many points. Carolina will be better than last year, rookie QB or not.
Dallas +6.5 over NYJ - Dallas improved under Garrett last year (5-3 close to the season with Kitna as their QB). I am also playing the 9/11 angle (i.e. the Jets having too much pressure playing in NY on the 10 year anniversary of 9/11).
I'll update the actual numbers that I get for each of these games, but I am 99.9% certain these will be my bets.
Enjoy the opening weekend of football, starting with Thursday's battle of the past two Super Bowl champs.
Not gonna bet the side, but I'd like New Orleans +4.5 if I had to bet it.
In this situation, have you ever encountered the "group think" of betting, where everyone sees the same thing you do in the above situation and sees no way in hell of a bet losing? All of my friends can remember the Monday Night game between an undefeated Bears squad and a reeling Arizona team. The Bears came out flat, falling behind 20-0 before making an inspired comeback that helped create the famous "Crown Their Ass" speech of Dennis Green. Unfortunately, we all bet on the Bears to cover about a 13 point spread. I can count on my hand how many times I've won bets where me and all of my friends were on the same side of a winning bet.
The truth is - one must look at lines like this a little closer than your normal lines when gambling. If you do some research on lines that you see that look too good to be true, it may help you stay away from games like this, or in some cases, bet on the other team. That's not to say that those bets always lose- because they don't. If you want to plop down the money on those teams, that's perfectly fine and I wish you the best of luck (as long as I'm not betting the other side).
This year with the blog, I decided to pick a game each week of a line that looks too good to be true - I'll call it the Fool's Gold play of the week. Sometimes I will bet it, sometimes I will avoid it. I have been in a Yahoo pick'em league for many years and like to use the public's perception of a pick to gauge heavy favortism of one side over another. I like to look at games where one team is being picked over another (by the spread) at a 70%+ clip. One particular game stands out for me in week 1.
NYG (-3) at Washington - Right now on Yahoo, the Giants are being picked at a 76% rate, which isn't the highest percentage (NE - 86%, Phil - 80%, Ariz & Cle - 79% each), but to me, it's the line that stands out as the Fool's Gold play of the week. All the talk this offseason on the Redskins has been about the mediocre QB battle betweeen Rex Grossman and John Beck, with the former winning the "battle". So why such a small line on what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFC, perhaps the league? One reason here is that it's a divisional/rivalry game, and another is that Opening Week of football can sometimes be a crapshoot. It's also a road game for the Giants - which can't be discounted. The oddsmakers haven't really moved this line since releasing it, despite the heavy Joe Public leaning on the Giants. When I see things like that happening, I tend to lean towards the other side. (No play, but would lean Wash +3)
Week 1 picks (amount bet on each TBD - will post later)
NO/GB Under 47.5 - I like defense to succeed in the first game of the year.
Balt/Pitt Over 36.5 - I've usually been on the under train for this rivalry, but I think these teams' offenses are gonna each get their teams into the 20s. Not as high scoring as their playoff matchup, but I expect each offense to have at least one long TD through the air.
TB -1.5 over Det - Everyone on the Detroit wagon, many think Tampa is a fluke from last year - not me.
StL +3.5 over Phil - I made a killing on StL last year because of oddsmaker/public disrespect. StL will keep it close and may win.
SD -8.5 over Minn - SD is a talented team who will win the division running away as long as their special teams isn't as atrocious as last year. Meanwhile, I don't believe in Minnesota and McNabb's chances.
Carolina +7 over Arizona - I can't spot Arizona this many points. Carolina will be better than last year, rookie QB or not.
Dallas +6.5 over NYJ - Dallas improved under Garrett last year (5-3 close to the season with Kitna as their QB). I am also playing the 9/11 angle (i.e. the Jets having too much pressure playing in NY on the 10 year anniversary of 9/11).
I'll update the actual numbers that I get for each of these games, but I am 99.9% certain these will be my bets.
Enjoy the opening weekend of football, starting with Thursday's battle of the past two Super Bowl champs.
Not gonna bet the side, but I'd like New Orleans +4.5 if I had to bet it.
9/04/2011
Daters Gonna Date (Chapter 2)
It's been a week since I started using the dating site, and I must say my opinion of it fluctuated a lot in my first 48 hours of using it.
Here's a link for part 1 of my online dating (intro)
Initial impressions, first 24 hours
After setting up my account and answering personality questions that would presumably match me up with ladies that had similar personalities, I browsed through the list of girls that they said I matched up well with. I had no idea how I would "approach" these girls, so my strategy was to take a few things from each of their profiles and try starting a "conversation" about the said topics.
My first week goal was to message a few girls a day, with the expectation that some wouldn't respond. I started with my strategy and started messaging a few girls. The first day total of messages was about 6 or 7. No messages back.
Great. Now it was feeling exactly like applying for jobs when I was unemployed. The profile and picture acting as the cover letter/resume and the girls as the jobs I am applying for. Except in this case, I was not as frustrated with the dating site as I would be applying for work. I figure some patience and due dilligence.
A few more messages sent the next day, no response yet. I had in mind a goal of messaging throughout the week and see the results that came from it, so no worries.
Some Breakthrough
As I am in between doctor's appointments Monday evening, I reach out to another girl and finally get a response back like 20-30 minutes later. After a few exchanges the same evening, we started talking on yahoo messenger. These conversations would take place a few times the next 3 days, a few hours each convo. We ended up setting up a date for this upcoming Tuesday. She seems to have a lot in common and contributes a lot to the conversations, which with most new people, I'm not used to.
In the meanwhile, there were a few other responses, including a facebook connection that has resulted in some conversation - but not as much. So out of the 12 or so messages I sent out, I batted 25%, which is a lot better of a ratio than I could say about a job hunt - so perhaps it wasn't as correct of an analogy as I made it out to be.
Must say that I am impressed with the site so far. It might be one of the better decisions I made in the 2nd half of 2011 - time will tell. All I know is that I "talked" to a lot more girls (or so I think they're women) on this site this week than I would have in any given week.
I'm not the type of guy who picks up girls at bars or goes to clubs and gets women that way. Pretty much every girl I've met and gotten to know has been because she was friends with my friend and we just so happened to meet that way. I feel like I've exhausted just about all of those options, so the dating site was the next logical step.
With a date in my back pocket for this week, I'd say it's been so far, so good. I hope my update next week will be sharing the same sentiments.
Here's a link for part 1 of my online dating (intro)
Initial impressions, first 24 hours
After setting up my account and answering personality questions that would presumably match me up with ladies that had similar personalities, I browsed through the list of girls that they said I matched up well with. I had no idea how I would "approach" these girls, so my strategy was to take a few things from each of their profiles and try starting a "conversation" about the said topics.
My first week goal was to message a few girls a day, with the expectation that some wouldn't respond. I started with my strategy and started messaging a few girls. The first day total of messages was about 6 or 7. No messages back.
Great. Now it was feeling exactly like applying for jobs when I was unemployed. The profile and picture acting as the cover letter/resume and the girls as the jobs I am applying for. Except in this case, I was not as frustrated with the dating site as I would be applying for work. I figure some patience and due dilligence.
A few more messages sent the next day, no response yet. I had in mind a goal of messaging throughout the week and see the results that came from it, so no worries.
Some Breakthrough
As I am in between doctor's appointments Monday evening, I reach out to another girl and finally get a response back like 20-30 minutes later. After a few exchanges the same evening, we started talking on yahoo messenger. These conversations would take place a few times the next 3 days, a few hours each convo. We ended up setting up a date for this upcoming Tuesday. She seems to have a lot in common and contributes a lot to the conversations, which with most new people, I'm not used to.
In the meanwhile, there were a few other responses, including a facebook connection that has resulted in some conversation - but not as much. So out of the 12 or so messages I sent out, I batted 25%, which is a lot better of a ratio than I could say about a job hunt - so perhaps it wasn't as correct of an analogy as I made it out to be.
Must say that I am impressed with the site so far. It might be one of the better decisions I made in the 2nd half of 2011 - time will tell. All I know is that I "talked" to a lot more girls (or so I think they're women) on this site this week than I would have in any given week.
I'm not the type of guy who picks up girls at bars or goes to clubs and gets women that way. Pretty much every girl I've met and gotten to know has been because she was friends with my friend and we just so happened to meet that way. I feel like I've exhausted just about all of those options, so the dating site was the next logical step.
With a date in my back pocket for this week, I'd say it's been so far, so good. I hope my update next week will be sharing the same sentiments.
Ruining the Fantasy: My Biggest Fantasy Football Pet Peeves
I just got back from hanging out at my friend Nick's. Towards the end of the night, we started discussing something that will be part of his next podcast- (here's a link of his podcast that he does with another friend and B-Bo Knows reader Chris Williams). The topic of conversation was fantasy football and some of its downfalls. This is a topic that I've been wanting to write about for a while, and no better time to do it than a week away from the NFL season starting. In no particular order, here are some pet peeves of mine concerning fantasy football:
(1) Caring more about your fantasy team than your actual favorite team. One problem with fantasy leagues that has developed over the years is people rooting more for their fantasy team than their team itself. It's not true for all fantasy owners, but there are many people who make less-than-convincing arguments that they want their fantasy football player (let's say Adrian Peterson) rush for 200 yards and 4 TDs, but in a 45-35 Bears victory. There's no possible way you can convince me that you rooting for a guy to do well against your team but rooting for the team to win isn't contradicting your fanhood. If you have Adrian Peterson, great. Start him against your favorite team, as you cannot bench a guy of his talent. But don't actively root for him to do well when in effect, it's actually doing harm to your real team.
(2) If I'm not in your league, I really don't care who is on your team. You'd think that me being a fantasy football nut that I'd be more interested in your team. Nope. Not one bit. If I'm not in the league in question, I care very little about your round-by-round analysis. Sure, there's some aspects that may be interesting to mention (like a tidbit on when a guy got drafted). But if I don't ask about your team, you don't really need to tell me everything about your team. Best of luck to your team is the most supportive thing I can say. I hope you win.
These last three are more about the leagues themselves vs. actual critiques of fantasy football.
(3) Any league that has less than 12 teams is not a real league. I know a few people that play in 8 team leagues and tell me all about their stacked teams. Guess what? Your team SHOULD be stacked. In a 15 round draft setup, a 12-team league drafts 180 players. In an 8-team league, it's only 120. That leaves an extra 60 guys on the free agent wire that would normally be owned in a regular (i.e. 12 team) league. I draw the line at 10-team leagues, but don't do those for money. All of my leagues are 12 teams, and I'd actually like to get into a 14 or 16 team league. That's where great fantasy owners separate themselves from average ones. Otherwise, every team is an all-star team and more of a crapshoot than it already is.
(4) Don't trade me a player before the season starts that you drafted many many rounds after the player you wanted. If I wanted the player that you offered me in a trade, I would have picked him in one of the 4-5 rounds before you picked him. Please don't try playing me for a fool. It also doesn't help when the garbage player that you offer to me is off your team about a week later.
(5) Please look at my roster before offering me a trade. I am not going to trade someone on my team if it's a thin position on my team. I am also not going to accept a trade when the player(s) I will be getting in return offer no value to my team. Please look at my roster when you are offering a trade and make sure the trade finds a way to benefit both trades.
There's probably others I can't think of right now, but these are the main ones. If this offended you as a fantasy owner, good.
To all of you fantasy football players, best of luck - I really do mean that. Just don't lose sight of your real team and don't play me for a fool if you're in a league with me.
(1) Caring more about your fantasy team than your actual favorite team. One problem with fantasy leagues that has developed over the years is people rooting more for their fantasy team than their team itself. It's not true for all fantasy owners, but there are many people who make less-than-convincing arguments that they want their fantasy football player (let's say Adrian Peterson) rush for 200 yards and 4 TDs, but in a 45-35 Bears victory. There's no possible way you can convince me that you rooting for a guy to do well against your team but rooting for the team to win isn't contradicting your fanhood. If you have Adrian Peterson, great. Start him against your favorite team, as you cannot bench a guy of his talent. But don't actively root for him to do well when in effect, it's actually doing harm to your real team.
(2) If I'm not in your league, I really don't care who is on your team. You'd think that me being a fantasy football nut that I'd be more interested in your team. Nope. Not one bit. If I'm not in the league in question, I care very little about your round-by-round analysis. Sure, there's some aspects that may be interesting to mention (like a tidbit on when a guy got drafted). But if I don't ask about your team, you don't really need to tell me everything about your team. Best of luck to your team is the most supportive thing I can say. I hope you win.
These last three are more about the leagues themselves vs. actual critiques of fantasy football.
(3) Any league that has less than 12 teams is not a real league. I know a few people that play in 8 team leagues and tell me all about their stacked teams. Guess what? Your team SHOULD be stacked. In a 15 round draft setup, a 12-team league drafts 180 players. In an 8-team league, it's only 120. That leaves an extra 60 guys on the free agent wire that would normally be owned in a regular (i.e. 12 team) league. I draw the line at 10-team leagues, but don't do those for money. All of my leagues are 12 teams, and I'd actually like to get into a 14 or 16 team league. That's where great fantasy owners separate themselves from average ones. Otherwise, every team is an all-star team and more of a crapshoot than it already is.
(4) Don't trade me a player before the season starts that you drafted many many rounds after the player you wanted. If I wanted the player that you offered me in a trade, I would have picked him in one of the 4-5 rounds before you picked him. Please don't try playing me for a fool. It also doesn't help when the garbage player that you offer to me is off your team about a week later.
(5) Please look at my roster before offering me a trade. I am not going to trade someone on my team if it's a thin position on my team. I am also not going to accept a trade when the player(s) I will be getting in return offer no value to my team. Please look at my roster when you are offering a trade and make sure the trade finds a way to benefit both trades.
There's probably others I can't think of right now, but these are the main ones. If this offended you as a fantasy owner, good.
To all of you fantasy football players, best of luck - I really do mean that. Just don't lose sight of your real team and don't play me for a fool if you're in a league with me.
9/02/2011
College Football - Week 1 Bets
....
Sike!
None.
Are you shocked? I kinda am. I usually have some kind of action every day of the NCAA season outside of the bowl weekends.
It's necessary for me to maintain discipline this year, especially in week 1 where absolutely nothing looks great to bet. The cupcake part of the schedule is right now for teams such as Alabama (38 point favorites), Ohio State (laying 34 against Kent State), and other ridiculous spreads.
LSU against Oregon would be the only game I'd consider betting, but I have no read on that game.
If you have followed this blog since last year (almost reached the one year mark of the blog being active), you know that this discipline is somewhat rare. My main point of emphasis this year when it comes to gambling- and it should be yours too - is not to force bets for the sake of betting.
Have a great Labor Day Weekend everyone.
Sike!
None.
Are you shocked? I kinda am. I usually have some kind of action every day of the NCAA season outside of the bowl weekends.
It's necessary for me to maintain discipline this year, especially in week 1 where absolutely nothing looks great to bet. The cupcake part of the schedule is right now for teams such as Alabama (38 point favorites), Ohio State (laying 34 against Kent State), and other ridiculous spreads.
LSU against Oregon would be the only game I'd consider betting, but I have no read on that game.
If you have followed this blog since last year (almost reached the one year mark of the blog being active), you know that this discipline is somewhat rare. My main point of emphasis this year when it comes to gambling- and it should be yours too - is not to force bets for the sake of betting.
Have a great Labor Day Weekend everyone.
Tempering My Expectations
Last year was the first year of gambling every week of the NFL season where I ended up profitting. A sharp record of 44-29 in the regular season (an additional 6-5 in the playoffs) led to $605 profit/$88 in postseason. For those of you who know gambling, I'll give you a breakdown on how I did in analyzing certain angles of the games. I'll combine playoffs and regular season:
Betting on:
Favorites - 9-13 (-$257)
Underdogs - 19-10 ($313)
Overs - 13-6 ($430)
Unders - 8-4 ($267)
If only I could have avoided betting on favorites! I had an over/under streak of 10 in a row in December (note: for gambling novices, over/unders are the lines set by Vegas that indicate the # of total points by both teams expected to be scored by both teams), which really pushed me over the edge.
So what does this mean for me this year?
Absolutely....nothing.
Brand new season means blank slate. It means different trends will have to be analyzed, different teams will have to be considered as good teams to back or bet against in favorable spots (i.e. fading teams). It also means that I have to maintain my same discipline that I had last year in order to profit again.
This gambling discipline includes not betting heavy amounts during a streak of winning and not chasing (betting for the sake of trying to "chase your losses"). Another thing I hope to do better this year is betting on isolated (i.e. primetime) games just for the sake of betting. I've fallen into this trap too many times when I don't have a great read on a game.
In order to profit again, I'm gonna need to practice what I preach. While I'm not sure I should expect to do better than last year (59% clip over a season for a full-time gambler is about as high as you should expect), I think my knowledge of teams and trends - in addition to these habits I picked up on last year - should help me succeed in making some more money again in 2011-12.
Betting on:
Favorites - 9-13 (-$257)
Underdogs - 19-10 ($313)
Overs - 13-6 ($430)
Unders - 8-4 ($267)
If only I could have avoided betting on favorites! I had an over/under streak of 10 in a row in December (note: for gambling novices, over/unders are the lines set by Vegas that indicate the # of total points by both teams expected to be scored by both teams), which really pushed me over the edge.
So what does this mean for me this year?
Absolutely....nothing.
Brand new season means blank slate. It means different trends will have to be analyzed, different teams will have to be considered as good teams to back or bet against in favorable spots (i.e. fading teams). It also means that I have to maintain my same discipline that I had last year in order to profit again.
This gambling discipline includes not betting heavy amounts during a streak of winning and not chasing (betting for the sake of trying to "chase your losses"). Another thing I hope to do better this year is betting on isolated (i.e. primetime) games just for the sake of betting. I've fallen into this trap too many times when I don't have a great read on a game.
In order to profit again, I'm gonna need to practice what I preach. While I'm not sure I should expect to do better than last year (59% clip over a season for a full-time gambler is about as high as you should expect), I think my knowledge of teams and trends - in addition to these habits I picked up on last year - should help me succeed in making some more money again in 2011-12.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
