Closer to Go(o)d: Some Surprising Stats on the Recent Use of Closers in Baseball

As I sit staring at my computer screen Sunday afternoon while Fernando Rodney did the best he could to blow a ninth-inning lead for the second straight day, I couldn't help but think that the Tampa Bay Rays would need to fix this problem in order to have any shot at winning the World Series. With how stubborn some managers can be to make change when the team is winning (the Rays have won 15 of their last 17 games), I was wondering how reluctant Joe Maddon might be to pull the struggling closer from his late-inning duties for someone else in the pen (maybe even through a trade).

To help me out with this (to see if Maddon might do this), I was surprised to see a certain trend that has developed in the past ten years when it comes to successful teams changing closers during the season. Dating back to the Marlins use of Ugueth Urbina (acquired via mid-season trade), there have been seven teams who have made the World Series while using a closer down the stretch and into the playoffs who was not the closer on the team to start the year. The other six new closers were with the team to start the year as middle relievers or set-up guys. Many of these guys had been with the organization for several years before even getting their first real chance to close.

Here's a list of the closer match-ups and career saves for the World Series winners and losers since 2001. The save total mentioned is how many career saves they had entering the season that they made the World Series:
 

		WS Winner		WS Loser
2012		Romo* (3)		Valverde (242)
2011		Motte* (3)		Feliz (42)
2010		Wilson (86)		Feliz (2)
2009		Rivera (482)		Lidge (164)
2008		Lidge (123)		Wheeler* (25)
2007		Papelbon (35)		Corpas* (0)
2006		Wainwright* (0)		Jones (226)
2005		Jenks* (0)		Lidge (30)
2004		Foulke (143)		Isringhausen (130)
2003		Urbina* (174)		Rivera (243)
2002		Percival (210)		Nen (271)
2001		Kim (15)		Rivera (165)
		*less regular season saves than main closer, but used as closer in playoffs

I was surprised to see a few things here:

1. The lack of experience that the closers who have won World Series this decade. Seven of the last eight World Series have had a closer who entered the season with 25 or less career saves.
2. The number of times a team has had the balls to change a closer during the season. For seven managers to do this in the midst of successful seasons is a testament to how good of managers some of these guys are. In many of these cases, the new closer likely saved the team from missing the postseason altogether.
3. Brad Lidge is tied with Mariano Rivera for most times being the closer of a World Series team this century.

Using this data, it makes me feel a lot better about my Tampa Bay Rays World Series bet, which I made before the season started. Well, assuming Maddon follows his own example from 2008, when he used Dan Wheeler to close down the stretch for a struggling/injured Troy Percival.

Closer to Another Change?

Another item that signals a potential change in closer for the Rays is their willingness over the last half decade to not rely on any particular closer for a multiple year period. I broke down the save leaders on each team from 2008 to 2012 to see how often, from year-to-year, teams had a shift in closers.

The Rays are among three teams who have had a different reliever lead the team in saves for each of the past five seasons. The others (Blue Jays and Nationals) have had far less success in this time period than the Rays (458 - 352 record, 56.5%) in this stretch.

In all, there have been 75 different relievers to lead a team in saves over the past five seasons. With 150 total team seasons played in this span for MLB's 30 teams, this means that the average closer has led his team in saves for two seasons (and since full-time closers always get the most saves on a team, you can argue that this is the lifespan of the average closer).

The breakdown of how many times these relievers led their respective teams in saves:

• Three closers have led a team in saves for all five years during this stretch (Jose Valverde, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street), all of whom have played for multiple teams during this stretch.
• Nine closers have led four years, including Kevin Gregg, who has led four different teams in saves during this time (the only player with this distinction).
• 13 closers have led three years - this is the most common length of a closer's career it seems.
• 10 closers have led two years.
• 40 closers have led a team in saves for only one season.

This data confirmed what I have learned to be true of closers. The Riveras of the world are few and far between, so never buy into the notion of a closer being an elite one until they have lasted at least 3 or 4 years in a closer's spot. Even then, many of these guys aren't the greatest closers, but rather perceived to be (the save stat is highly flawed, as just about any major league pitcher - closer or not - should be able to protect the leads required to qualify for a save). That's not to say that the idea of having a great closer is flawed - it helps tremendously to have a guy down the stretch of a close game who can blow guys away with a great heater and perhaps another great pitch or two. If I can find the time and a good site for this data, I would love to break down closer's save percentages when handed over a lead of just one run (as opposed to a two or three run lead).

Most closers have a short shelf-life for several reasons:

• Many times, relievers become relievers because they sucked as starting pitchers. Not too many pitchers actually get drafted as relievers when they come out of college. If they sucked as starting pitchers, they're likely to be relievers for the rest of their career should it be something they excel at - otherwise they won't last long in the big.
  
  In a typical good reliever's career, there will be a handful of seasons that aren't as good. Sometimes, these seasons are bad enough to prevent these guys from ever getting another closing gig. Or you may argue that some of these guys had fluke seasons during their brief success and their lack of talent eventually caught up to them when the league figured them out (like Shingo Takastu with the White Sox).
  
• In the case of some closers, especially the ones who have led a team in saves only once, they were the replacement for a closer who got hurt early in the season. Sometimes, these guys are able to handle the role well and last more than a couple seasons as closer for another team.
  
• Certain guys get pigeon-holed into specific roles that cannot be explained. A closer-in-waiting, who has better overall numbers and stuff than the guy closing, may never get a full-time chance to be closer if his manager prefers to stick with a guy he likes who might have more experience than these guys "in waiting". 

For my bet's sake, here's to hoping that Maddon will not fall back on the recent success that the Rays have had (they may not be as lucky to survive in the playoffs if Rodney keeps allowing all these base runners) and opts to replace the struggling closer with someone else, perhaps a guy like Jake McGee, who has a great K/9 (11.8), K/BB (5.13) and WHIP (0.93).

I'll take my chances with those numbers than with Rodney, who issues too many walks to be counted on to close out games long-term (an eye-popping 5.4 BB/9 & 1.35 WHIP this season, numbers which are more on par with his career numbers than last year's numbers of 1.8 BB/9 & 0.78 WHIP).

Oh yeah, and one more thing that would work perfect with McGee, at least when it comes to recent World Series trends: he has only 1 career save, earned earlier this season.

Good News for People Who Love Bad News - Sports Edition

Maybe it just seems like a lot because of the news cycle being cable news'd and Twitter'd, but it sure seems like there's been a lot of bad news coming from the sporting arena in the past week.

Rose's Thorn

Saturday saw the end of the Bulls' season with the injury to Derrick Rose. I didn't have them winning the East even if he was healthy, but it seems like everyone (experts, media and public) believes that the Bulls needed a healthy Rose to have a chance to compete for the title. The Bulls looked hot out of the gate in Game 2 by taking a 9 point lead into the second half, perhaps playing off of the emotion of trying to prove themselves absent their point guard. However, Philly charged back quickly and beat the Bulls handily in the second half while evening the series. I still think the Bulls will win the series, but the next series against Boston or Atlanta may prove to be too much w/o their leader.

In case you were curious, the fire extinguisher glass won--again.

On Monday, Amare Stoudemire put a new meaning to attacking the glass. Unfortunately, this attack away from the basketball court. Fortunately, it involved him only using one hand instead of two. In frustration, Stoudemire punched a glass with his left hand after the Knicks' 10 point loss in Miami which put New York down 2-0 in the best of 7 series. He will miss Game 3 and is expected to miss the rest of the series. Which means he'll miss Games 3 & 4. Luckily this wasn't the Eastern Conference Finals or NBA Finals, or else we'd be hearing a lot more about this.






Tuesday had a faux pas of a different kind. If you use Covers.com for gambling advice or navigate ESPN.com's back pages, you may have heard of the name Sarah Phillips before Tuesday. This story was featured prominently enough on Twitter yesterday to trend nationally. The young freelancer from Oregon was the subject of a damning profile on the site Deadspin.com that showed Sarah and a longtime friend/boyfriend scamming people through the use of these writing platforms and social media (notably "buying" followers on Twitter). They promised part-ownership in their start-up website for a certain amount of money from people.

Luckily, they didn't scam too many people out of their money. Unfortunately, her actions bring to light the hiring practices of websites, whose editors can go forever without actually meeting the people they are paying to write. According to the articles, ESPN.com & Covers never interviewed Phillips before hiring her, and nobody at either company can claim to ever have met her. Apparently, this isn't an uncommon practice. I suppose you can still con people even if you put a face to your email.

And finally, the biggest NFL news today was supposed to be the doling of punishment for the Saints players in Bounty-Gate. However, it took a back seat to the apparent suicide of Junior Seau.  These two events connect so well that the timing of Seau's death is scary. The day started with the punishments. Four players were suspended - with the harshest penalty given to Jonathan Vilma (16 games). All players plan on appealing the ruling. If social media is any way to measure how the Player's Association is looking at the ruling, many NFL players are against this ruling.

Meanwhile, Seau was found dead in his house with a gunshot wound to the chest. Eerily similar to the suicide of former Bear Dave Duerson, who shot himself in the heart so that his brain could be studied for the effects of concussions on the brain. It's unreal to think that these guys do something like this while being cognitive enough to realize what they are doing. But who the hell knows what's going through their minds when they are doing this? The NFL is going to be facing severe litigation in the next 5-10 years as these concussions are studied and likely proven to cause post-football symptoms that lead to depression and often suicide.

The players who are against the rulings dished out by the commissioner are missing the point. As the head of the NFL, Goodell cannot continue to watch his product get dismantled. I've heard a little chatter in the past about the NFL going the way of boxing (a once major sport in America that has become obscure for the most part - at least in the overall sporting landscape). The extinction of the NFL could come in our lifetimes, especially if Goodell were to just close his eyes and pretend nothing was happening. I sure as hell don't want a future son of mine to play football, knowing everything I know about what happens to these folks after football.

 Punishment was hefty for the bounties. Good.

These punishments were necessary to ensure that bounties will never be a part of the NFL again. If you want to take that chance as a player, you'll be looking at an even stiffer penalty (possible ban I'd say). The NFL doesn't want this concussion issue to get out of control. Regardless on whether it's shown that Seau had post-concussion symptoms that led to this, the NFL has to make sure to protect its product - its players. Too bad the players don't see that. In 20 years, they may want to thank Goodell for trying to make their profession safer.


Update: 5/4/12...This week just keeps getting weirder and weirder with bizarre sporting stories, another for the worse. While shagging fly-balls in batting practice, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera suffered an ACL injury in what is likely his last year as a pitcher. Before the year, he said this would be it. I'm not sure he wants to go out like this, but then again, he may not have a choice. If you're a sports fan and weren't moved by his press conference as he sat there in disbelief over what happened, then you're not a real sports fan.

Rivera's career may be over due to a freak injury.

I expect two kinds of idiots to come out of the woodwork for this story: (1) those who say he shouldn't be shagging fly balls when he's apparently been doing it his entire career with no problems and (2) those idiots that take joy in Rivera's injury. If this is it for Rivera, what a terrible way to go. According to an ESPN stat I just saw, his 2.21 ERA in the live-ball era (since 1920) is the best ERA for pitchers with minimum 1000 innings pitched in their careers.

Rivera seems to be a respected person around major league baseball, with even a lot of Yankee haters appreciating his quiet, humble dominance. If this is the Sandman's Exit, it's been a hell of a ride for the last guy in major league history with the #42 jersey (retired by baseball for Jackie Robinson).

Enough of the bad news, or good news for people who like bad news. I'm done.