I'm always one to make sure I hold myself accountable for predictions - both good and bad - when it comes to offering them before a season starts. Like many of you, I tend to back up my opinion with cash money.
Maybe like many of you (perhaps some of you), I struggled throughout the 2013 season. I meant to keep accurate records of everything, but after a while of just sucking too much, too hard (the stuff they won't show on Cinemax), I just stopped keeping track of my daily progress.
One thing I can easily keep track of are the futures bets that I made (team wins, division winners, World Series champ bets). And much like my daily bets, success was hard to find. I made the following bets before and during the season:
Win Props
- Tampa Bay Over 86 (135 to win 100) - WIN
- Cleveland Over 77.5 (135 to win 100) - WIN
- Toronto Under 89 (105 to win 100) - WIN
- Houston Over 59.5 (100 to win 105) - LOSS
- San Diego Over 74.5 (100 to win 115)- WIN
Division Props
- Tampa to win AL East +255 (40 to win 108) - LOSS
- Philly to win NL East +330 (40 to win 132) - LOSS
- Cleveland to win AL Central +900 (15 to win 135) - LOSS
- Cleveland to win AL Central (Made few weeks into season) +1450 (15 to win 217.50) - LOSS
- San Diego to win NL West (Made in June) +3300 (15 to win 495) - LOSS
World Series Props
- Tampa to win WS +1500 (30 to win 450) - PENDING
- San Diego to win WS (bet made in June) +25000 (15 to win 3750) - LOSS
Player Props
- Jay Bruce Most HRs in MLB +1900 (25 to win 475) - LOSS
- Yoenis Cespedes Most HRs in MLB +5000 (15 to win 750) - LOSS
As you can see, not much has gone right outside of my over/under bets for season wins (I went 4-1 there).
The link I introduced at the beginning highlights some of my thoughts before the season on things I know to be true about MLB. Going point-by-point:
1. Re: Spending big does not equal success. I was half right on the teams mentioned in this point. While the Dodgers' big spending eventually paid off in a big way, the Blue Jays never really got going this year. The big names signed and traded for have led to no improvement in the quality of the team (last year Toronto was 73-89; w/ two games left in 2013, they are 73-87).
2. Re: Due for some surprise teams. Again, I was half right here. I did predict Cleveland as a wild card team that would finish about 5-6 games behind Detroit (at the moment, 3 back, but obviously division is clinched). While not a wild card team just yet, I applaud myself for getting this pretty damn close at the very least. I missed on my other surprise team (San Diego), who looked like they may contend after having one of the best stretches in the MLB during June. However, once they realized they were San Diego (and once Los Angeles got their shit together), the wheels fell off. Thankfully, they rebounded enough in September to win me my futures bet on them. Pittsburgh is the ultimate surprise from the NL.
3. Re: 2-3 new division winners. As you saw above on the division bets, I didn't do a good job of predicting the new division winners. The only division I even got right was Detroit, which was the biggest chalk in baseball. There were actually four new division winners, none of which I got right (Boston, St. Louis, Atlanta, Los Angeles).
4. Re: Tampa will surprise as usual. The jury is still out on this. We will see if they make one of the two wild card spots (tied w/ Cleveland and one ahead of Texas). With their solid pitching, I still believe they can win the World Series if they are able to extend their season into October.
Revised MLB Predictions (w/ 2 games left)
WC round
Pitt over Cincy; TB over Cle
Divisional Series Round
TB over Bos; Det over Oak
NL TBD: Whoever faces Atl over Atl; either LA over StL or StL over Pitt
League Championship Series:
Det over TB; LA over StL or Pitt
World Series: Det over LA
Award Winners
AL MVP: Miggy
NL MVP: McCutchen
AL Cy: Scherzer
NL Cy: Kershaw (hey, I think I got one preseason pick right!)
AL Rookie of Year: Wil Myers (no true standouts in AL - Iglesias and Straily have a shot)
NL Rookie of Year: Fernandez (Mia) (Puig had amazing start, but Fernandez dominated throughout entire season)
WS MVP: Victor Martinez
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