Now that I just got done lecturing people with my latest blog on do's and don'ts of gambling, it's time to write one of my favorite blogs of the year - the first of many gambling features on NFL & NCAA. I'll try updating this as accurately as possible. I forgot to post a lot of my NCAA plays on Saturday, which of course pretty much all ended up winners.
NCAA gambling in week 1 started out terribly, as I lost my first 4 bets placed, including taking one on the chin when I backed Navy +14.5 against Notre Dame in their game played in Ireland. After that though, it was smooth sailing, as I closed out the rest of the gambling weekend with 8 straight wins.
Lost: South Carolina -6.5, South Carolina/Vandy Over 21.5 2nd half, Minnesota -9, Navy +14.5
Won: Ohio +6.5, NIU +7.5, Hawaii +42.5, Alabama -13, Oregon team total over 54.5 points, Oregon 2nd half team under 21.5, SMU/Baylor Over 57, Georgia Tech +7.5
Overall, I ended up 8-4, +310.50. I'll try keeping this up to date (win or lose). Hopefully most weekends, I'll be able to keep this updated. For most updated picks, best to check my Twitter: @BrianBolek
Largest Spread Ever
On 5dimes, you can bet on Savannah State vs. Florida State. Question is: do you feel comfortable betting on Florida State spotting its opponent 65.5 points? That's what the line is. At some places, the line is over 70. If for some reason you think this game will be decided by 66-70 points, then maybe you want to bet both sides of the game. If you're a sane gambler, you'll probably just avoid it.
NCAA Week 2
Purdue +14 at Notre Dame - Expecting a Notre Dame letdown after a successful overseas trip. Also, Purdue has a chance to be a sleeper team in the Big Ten. Ask @BerserkHippo.
Penn St. +10 at Virginia- Penn St. looked bad in the second half against Ohio, but I think Ohio is better than people expected. This line in the preseason was at about Virginia -3, so to say that PSU got 7 points worse based on the players they lost and their Week 1 performance seems a bit much. From what I've read about Virginia, there's nothing special about them. I still think PSU will be about a 5-6 win team, and here, I think they keep it closer than the line says.
Oregon State +7 vs. Wisconsin - Playing the angle of non-conference game, travel cross country for Wisconsin. Big Ten teams tend to struggle in these situations.
Duke +15.5 at Stanford - This is more of a gut play. Plus, what Stanford showed in its opener is that it will struggle without Andrew Luck and company, while Duke, not exactly a powerhouse in its own right, but has bowl aspirations this season and opened the season on a strong note. They are led by potential pro prospect Sean Renfree, who is the ACC's active career leader in yards and completions. I think Duke keep it within two scores.
NFL Week 1
Dallas +3.5 & Dal/NYG Over 23.5 first half - Games already bet, but I split these bets (1-1, +48.50)
KC +3 vs Atlanta - KC is highly under-rated and has a great home field at Arrowhead. Injuries devastated them last year. If I am right, they will win the AFC West this year. This will be the first step.
GB -5 vs San Fran - Check out my 49ers Fan Federation Blog for detailed analysis on this. I think Packers start season off strong, motivated by sour taste in mouth based on last year's ending.
NO -7.5 vs. Washington - Lots of hype behind RG III, but I think it'll take some time for him to get acclimated to the NFL landscape. Plus, the Superdome is a rough place for a debut. Saints roll.
Indy +10 at Chicago - Andrew Luck appears to be the real deal, and he is a great candidate to beat Cam Newton's one-year old record of rookie passing yards in a season. The Bears had a poor secondary last year. While I think the Bears will win, I think it'll be by one score, not two. Don't be shocked if there's a backdoor cover (i.e. a late score by the Colts that helps them cover the spread).
NFL betting YTD (including Fool's Gold): 1-1, +48.50 (follow me on Twitter @BrianBolek for official bets, which may include additional bets than the ones mentioned here)
Fool's Gold Pick of the Week
Tennessee +5.5 vs. New England - Nothing seems right about this line. Tom Brady - the Tom Brady - isn't even spotting more than a touchdown to second-year starter Jake Locker? What gives? Like the Bears, the Patriots had a poor secondary, which allowed teams with decent attacks to stay in games. I think Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Kendall Wright are a sufficient trio and between them will get a couple of Jake Locker touchdowns in the opener. Brady should put up points, but I believe the Titans will too. Look for this to stay within a field goal, with a possibility of a Titans upset in Week 1. I think this will be one of the higher scoring games of the week, so you should probably bet the Under.
Fool's Gold YTD: 0-0, $0
Enjoy the start of the NFL season.
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