As the AFC & NFC Championship weekend was about to commence, I was wondering how often a mediocre quarterback has won the Super Bowl. With Alex Smith still in contention, this was a reasonable thing to research.
Smith & the 49ers lost, but that didn't stop me from researching the history of Super Bowl quarterbacks and how many of the quarterbacks were average (or at the very least, not Hall of Fame worthy).
I broke down the QBs into two different eras - Super Bowls I - XXX (1 thru 30 for the Roman Numerically-impaired) & then the rest (many players since then are not eligible for the Hall yet).
I also took a look at the Pro Football Hall of Fame to see how the QBs from the Super Bowl era are represented. I used several sites that verify starting QBs in the Super Bowl history.
Super Bowls I - XXX Era
During this time, there were only 33 different starting quarterbacks in the 30 year period (out of a possible 60). This shows that many QBs stayed dominant for extended periods of time. During this time, 4 distinct dynasties (Green Bay in 1960s, Pitt in 1970s, SF in 1980s & Dallas in early 90s) dominated the league - so the lack of QBs to appear in the big game makes sense.
18 different QBs won championships (7 QBs won multiple titles) in the first 30 Super Bowls. Out of these, 10 are in Canton, with only one QB (Jim Plunkett) that has failed to make it despite winning multiple Super Bowls. The others who won include average slingers like Jeff Hostetler & Mark Rypien. Surely not worthy of HOF-busts.
Of these champions, 21 of the 30 were won w/ a Hall of Famer behind center. I'm not going to break down the other positions, but I'd have to guess that the 70% clip that QBs have in this time frame of going to the Hall of Fame is the best of any position.
I found it strange that only three Super Bowl losers have had Hall-of-Fame QBs in this time frame: Jim Kelly (lost 4 straight), Fran Tarkenton (lost 3) & Dan Marino (lost 1).
That means that the other 22 Super Bowl losers featured a QB that was less-than-Canton-worthy. Names like Joe Kapp, Tony Eason, Stan Humphries & Neil O'Donnell are among those who could be answers to trivia questions of Super Bowl losing QBs.
Bears fans don't need me to mention Rex Grossman, but that's for another day.
Looking at this group of QBs, it makes me think that Alex Smith making a run in the playoffs and potentially making a Super Bowl wasn't as far-fetched as it seemed. Although one point is clearly proven - you may only need to be an average/above-average QB to make a Super Bowl, but you have to be a spectacular QB (HOF-worthy) to win them consistently.
In fact, only 4 QBs of the 18 who have made the Hall of Fame from the Super Bowl era did not make a single Super Bowl (Warren Moon, George Blanda, Don Fouts, Sonny Jurgeson). It definitely helps a passer's chances to go from having a passing chance of making the Hall of Fame to a legitimate one to make at least one or two Super Bowls (and preferably win one or more).
XXXI - current: More of the Same
There's been 15 Super Bowls in this timeframe, and no surprise, Hall of Fame QBs (future and potential) dominate the appearances. Particularly the AFC, who has seen a trifecta of New England, Pittsburgh & Indianapolis appear in 9 of the past 10 Super Bowls - who by no coincidence have 2 sure-bet Hall of Famers & a potential one (Big Ben being in the latter). This time span also includes John Elway's 2 titles before he retired.
While the NFC has had scattered success (the Giants are the first NFC team in the past 11 years to make 2 Super Bowls), it has still had its share of HOF or fringe-HOFers representing them. Among them: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre & Eli Manning - all of which could make the Hall.
Obviously, like the first 30, the past 15 have seen its share of duds. I count 9 QBs of the 19 who made it in this time frame who definitely will not make it, including two winners (Trent Dilfer & Brad Johnson), 5 who will (Brady, Peyton, Favre, Rodgers, Brees) and several question marks (Eli & Big Ben among them).
If you give all of my ? mark QBs the Hall nod, that'd be 10 of 19 QBs from this era in the Hall. The other ? marks I had were for McNabb, Kurt Warner & Bledsoe, with Warner the most likely of the 3 to make the Hall in my opinion.
Compared to the 70% of Super Bowls in the first 30 to feature a Hall of Famer behind center for the champion, this current era has featured 13 of 15 titles won by HOFs or future HOFs (assuming Eli, Warner & Big Ben would make it). With Brady and Eli facing each other this year, it'll be 14 for 16; so 35 of 46 Super Bowls have been won by a HOF-caliber quarterback.
If you wonder why teams scout this position so carefully in hopes of finding the franchise savior, the above stat is why. Getting the right guy behind center, even if it's just for one championship, can be the difference between the Colts building Lucas Oil Stadium & being in Los Angeles right now if they would have drafted Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton.
As far as the QB category of those who have not made a Super Bowl making it to the Hall in this current era, only Tony Romo comes close to that designation at this point, and if you read the blog I just posted, you'd have to imagine he'd have to make a Super Bowl (and probably win it) to get consideration.
XLVI Prediction
With this being the last football blog before the big game, I am being paid by unnamed sources to provide my Super Bowl pick.
Much of the public is on the Giants, as they have hit their stride since their Week 15 loss to the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Patriots have put together the quietest 10 game winning streak ever. Their bend-but-don't-break defense will be tested by the aerial attack led by Eli Manning, who has greatly benefited from the emergence of Victor Cruz as a top-notch target.
A lot of focus is on the Gronkowski injury, which I believe has gotten a little too much press. Brady has won with crappy receivers before - he wins with subpar receivers better than anyone. And before you say Welker is awesome - I'm in the camp that Brady has made Welker good. His stats broken down:
Pre-New England: 96 catches, 1121 yards, 1 TD in 2 seasons as a receiver with Miami
New England: 111 catches, 1221 yards, 6 TDs AS AN AVERAGE SEASON in 5 years w/ NE
Brady may be the one great QB who doesn't get enough credit for what he has done with such little talent at wide receiver. The only great WR he ever had was Randy Moss, and look what happened the full year that they played with each other. Welker and Hernandez would be sufficient enough of targets for Brady but it looks like Gronk is going to play, which is fantastic for New England.
With how much pressure the Niners got on the Giants line a few weeks ago, I'm surprised that the NE defensive line isn't getting as much attention in the press, particularly Wilfork. I think the Pats will be able to get decent pressure on Eli enough to rattle him.
I'm going Patriots 31-20 (so I'm likely betting Pats -2.5 or 3 and the under of 54).
Good luck to anyone betting this game or anyone who is rooting for either of these teams outside of gambling (you know, that whole fandom thing).
I know my girlfriend is counting down the minutes until football is over and smiling thinking about it, while I'm on the verge of tears as another season ends.
Hey, at least there will be Thursday Night Football almost every week next year!
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